The global scenario for the future oil supply is shown in thePublications following Figure 7. Figure 7: Oil production world summary

120 WEO2006 120 Energy Watch Group Reports Middle East WEO 2006 Africa 100 100

The German-based Energy Watch Group (EWG) is analyzing all avail- ] Latin America d

/ South Asia

able information that it can gather about fossil and nuclear energy. So b East Asia

M 80 80 far this has led to three interesting and worrying publications. [ China

n Transition Economies o

i OECD Pacific t 60 60

c OECD Europe

CRUDE OIL REPORT u OECD North America

d o

According to the major result from EWG’s r 40 40

p l

analysis of world oil production, oil i O peaked in 2006, and will start to decline at The group concludes that 20 20 a rate of several percent per year. the declining oil supplies 0 0 In this paper, a scenario for the possible will force the world to be- 1935 1945 1955 1965 1975 1985 1995 2005 2015 2025 global oil supply is derived by aggregating gin a structural change of projections for the ten world regions based its economic system. Our Graph: EWG Global Scenario for the Future Oil primarily, on production data, which can way of dealing with energy issues probably Supply. Oil Production [Mb/d]. be observed more easily and are also more will have to change fundamentally. The red line is the oil supply according to the World Energy Outlook (WEO) report of the Inter- reliable than reserve estimates. Generally, The message by the International Ener- national Energy Agency (IEA), 2006. future production in regions, which are gy Agency (IEA), namely that business as already seeing declines, can be predicted usual will also be possible in future, sends fairly accurately relying solely on past a false signal to politicians, industry and www.energywatchgroup.org production data. consumers, not to mention the media.

Oil: Crude Oil Supply Outlook, Report, Summary: 14 pp, (pdf 493 kB); COAL REPORT Full Report, 101 pages, (pdf 2MB), The major results from the EWG’s analy- Press Release: Peak Oil Could Trigger Meltdown of Society, October 2007. sis of the coal production is that there is Coal: The Capacity of Coal is Significantly Overestimated, significantly less coal left to be burnt than Press Release: 3 pp., (pdf 162 kB), Full report: 47 pp., 629 kB. March 2007. most people think This contradicts the Uranium: EWG Warns: Depleting uranium reserves dash hopes for atomic energy supply, conventional wisdom that says we have Press release: 5p, (pdf, 173 kB); 8 pp., (pdf 614 kB); coal resources for hundreds of years left. Full Report: 48 pp., 404 kB, December 2006. Background Report: update, April 2007. EWG estimates that the production of coal will peak in 2025, at 30 % above the URANIUM REPORT current level, if it is not reduced earlier to Today, uranium-mining capacity is only mitigate climate change. After the peak, about 2/3 of the amount needed to meet production will slowly decline because of consumer demand. EWG has concluded diminishing resources. that the dramatically increased amounts Suprisingly, EWG also found that many of uranium that would be necessary for data about proven reserves is out of date. tions of more than 80 % of the resource expanded reliance on nuclear power will In some countries the data have not been estimate. China is the country with the not be available. updated for 15-40 years. There is an urgent most reserves, although it is not the largest Due to the increasing prices of uranium, need for up-to-date and transparent data producer. Just around 1/5 of the Chinese the EWG opposes the claims that nuclear collection, without inclusion of specula- reserves are being mined. Coal produc- fuel is cheap and that its prices have hardly tive resources. In some cases, for lignite, tion in China will pass its peak within the any effect on the cost of nuclear power there have also been dramatic devalua- coming 10 years. production.

Graph: EWG Global Scenario of Coal Production [Mtoe] according to the avail- Graph: EWG Global Statistics of Uranium delivered amount and demand, ability of coal in countries. The black line is the coal forecast according to the Uranium [kt], according to producing countries. The black curve shows World Energy Outlook (WEO) report of IEA, 2006. The IEA scenario assumes the annual uranium use in atomic power plants world-wide. Since the further increasing coal consumption and production until at least 2030. Figurebeginning 4: of Uranium the 90s productiondemand has and beendemand higher than the delivered amount. According to EWG, this will not be possible due to limited reserves. Worldwide possible coal production M toe kt Uranium 5000 80 Fuel demand for reactors WEO 2006: Reference scenario 70 4000 WEO 2006: Alternative policy scenario 60 East Asia LA 50 3000 lignite Af FSU lignite rica su lignite b b 40 subbituminous itu USA b m it in um o Australia China i u 2000 no s Niger bituminous us 30 Russia Kazakhstan bituminous South 20 South Africa Namibia Asia China lignite OECD Pacific Canada lignite 1000 Germany OECD Europe bituminous bituminous 10 Uzbekistan Russia OECD North America subbituminous Czech lignite France 0 bituminous Year 1950 2000 2050Year 2100 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000

No. 59, December 2007 11 Sustainable Energy News