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Estimating Remaining Lifetime of Humanity Abstract 1. Introduction
Estimating remaining lifetime of humanity Yigal Gurevich [email protected] Abstract In this paper, we estimate the remaining time for human existence, applying the Doomsday argument and the Strong Self-Sampling Assumption to the reference class consisting of all members of the Homo sapiens, formulating calculations in traditional demographic terms of population and time, using the theory of parameter estimation and available paleodemographic data. The remaining lifetime estimate is found to be 170 years, and the probability of extinction in the coming year is estimated as 0.43%. 1. Introduction Modern humans, Homo sapiens, exist according to available data for at least 130,000 years [4], [5]. It is interesting, however, to estimate the time remaining for the survival of humanity. To determine this value there was proposed the so-called doomsday argument [1] - probabilistic reasoning that predicts the future of the human species, given only an estimate of the total number of humans born so far. This method was first proposed by Brandon Carter in 1983 [2]. Nick Bostrom modified the method by formulating the Strong Self-Sampling Assumption (SSSA): each observer-moment should reason as if it were randomly selected from the class of all observer-moments in its reference class. [3]. In this paper, we apply the SSSA method to the reference class consisting of all members of our species, formulating calculations in traditional demographic terms of population and time, using the parameter estimation theory and the available paleodemographic data. 1 To estimate the remaining time t we will fulfill the assumption that the observer has an equal chance to be anyone at any time. -
Anthropic Measure of Hominid (And Other) Terrestrials. Brandon Carter Luth, Observatoire De Paris-Meudon
Anthropic measure of hominid (and other) terrestrials. Brandon Carter LuTh, Observatoire de Paris-Meudon. Provisional draft, April 2011. Abstract. According to the (weak) anthropic principle, the a priori proba- bility per unit time of finding oneself to be a member of a particular popu- lation is proportional to the number of individuals in that population, mul- tiplied by an anthropic quotient that is normalised to unity in the ordinary (average adult) human case. This quotient might exceed unity for conceiv- able superhuman extraterrestrials, but it should presumably be smaller for our terrestrial anthropoid relations, such as chimpanzees now and our pre- Neanderthal ancestors in the past. The (ethically relevant) question of how much smaller can be addressed by invoking the anthropic finitude argument, using Bayesian reasonning, whereby it is implausible a posteriori that the total anthropic measure should greatly exceed the measure of the privileged subset to which we happen to belong, as members of a global civilisation that has (recently) entered a climactic phase with a timescale of demographic expansion and technical development short compared with a breeding gen- eration. As well as “economist’s dream” scenarios with continual growth, this finitude argument also excludes “ecologist’s dream” scenarios with long term stabilisation at some permanently sustainable level, but it it does not imply the inevitability of a sudden “doomsday” cut-off. A less catastrophic likelihood is for the population to decline gradually, after passing smoothly through a peak value that is accounted for here as roughly the information content ≈ 1010 of our genome. The finitude requirement limits not just the future but also the past, of which the most recent phase – characterised by memetic rather than genetic evolution – obeyed the Foerster law of hyperbolic population growth. -
SSA/CHICAGO at the University of Chicago
A publication by students of the School of Social Service Administration SSA/CHICAGO at the University of Chicago Advocates’ FORUM 2006 Advocates’ FORUM 2006 COEDITORS IN CHIEF Charlotte Hamilton Amy Proger EDITORIAL BOARD Vanessa Askot Stephen Brehm Marianne Cook Jessica Falk Charlotte Hamilton Christina James Amy Proger Liz Schnitz Marion Scotchmer Aaron Willis ADVISOR Virginia Parks, Ph.D. MISSION STATEMENT Advocates’ Forum is an academic journal that explores clinical implications, social issues, admin- istration, and public policies linked to the social work profession. The journal is written, edited, and ESSAYS AND ARTICLES created by students of the School of Social Service Administration, Mapping the American Political Stream: and its readership includes current The Stuart B. McKinney Homeless Assistance Act students, alumni, faculty, fieldwork by Betsy Carlson . 6 supervisors, and other professionals in the field. The editors of Advocates’ The Stink beneath the Ink: How Cartoons Are Forum seek to provide a medium through which SSA students Animating the Gay and Lesbian Culture Wars can contribute to the continuing by Frank Baiocchi . 16 discourse on social welfare and policy. Those of a Queer Age: Insights into Aging in the Gay and Lesbian Community EDITORIAL POLICY by Stephanie Schmitz-Bechteler . 26 Advocates’ Forum is published by the students of the School of Transgender Inclusion and Feminism: Social Service Administration Organizations and Innovation (SSA) at the University of Chicago. by Katherine S. Stepleton . 37 Submissions to the journal are selected by the editorial board from An Introduction to the Client-Oriented, Practical, works submitted by SSA students and edited in an extensive revision Evidence Search (COPES) process with the authors’ permis- by Aaron Willis and Andrew Gill . -
UC Santa Barbara Other Recent Work
UC Santa Barbara Other Recent Work Title Geopolitics, History, and International Relations Permalink https://escholarship.org/uc/item/29z457nf Author Robinson, William I. Publication Date 2009 Peer reviewed eScholarship.org Powered by the California Digital Library University of California OFFICIAL JOURNAL OF THE CONTEMPORARY SCIENCE ASSOCIATION • NEW YORK Geopolitics, History, and International Relations VOLUME 1(2) • 2009 ADDLETON ACADEMIC PUBLISHERS • NEW YORK Geopolitics, History, and International Relations 1(2) 2009 An international peer-reviewed academic journal Copyright © 2009 by the Contemporary Science Association, New York Geopolitics, History, and International Relations seeks to explore the theoretical implications of contemporary geopolitics with particular reference to territorial problems and issues of state sovereignty, and publishes papers on contemporary world politics and the global political economy from a variety of methodologies and approaches. Interdisciplinary and wide-ranging in scope, Geopolitics, History, and International Relations also provides a forum for discussion on the latest developments in the theory of international relations and aims to promote an understanding of the breadth, depth and policy relevance of international history. Its purpose is to stimulate and disseminate theory-aware research and scholarship in international relations throughout the international academic community. Geopolitics, History, and International Relations offers important original contributions by outstanding scholars and has the potential to become one of the leading journals in the field, embracing all aspects of the history of relations between states and societies. Journal ranking: A on a seven-point scale (A+, A, B+, B, C+, C, D). Geopolitics, History, and International Relations is published twice a year by Addleton Academic Publishers, 30-18 50th Street, Woodside, New York, 11377. -
Yearbook 2008 African
AFRI Yearbook 2008 CAN M E DI A AFRIcan , AFRI , CAN MEDIA, C H ILDR AFRIcan The International Clearinghouse EN on Children, Youth and Media Norma Pecora, Enyonam Osei-Hwere & Ulla Carlsson CHILDRen NORDICOM Nordic Information Centre for Media and Communication Research University of Gothenburg Editors: Box 713, SE 405 30 Göteborg, Sweden Norma Pecora, Enyonam Osei-Hwere & Ulla Carlsson Telephone: +46 31 786 00 00 Fax: +46 31 786 46 55 E-mail: nordicom @nordicom.gu.se www.nordicom.gu.se WITH AN INTRODUCTIon BY FIRDOZE BULBULIA ISBN 978-91-89471-68-9 The International Clearinghouse on Children, Youth and Media NORDICOM University of Gothenburg Yearbook 2008 The International The International Clearinghouse Clearinghouse on Children, Youth and Media, at on Children, Youth and Media A UNESCO INITIATIVE 1997 Nordicom University of Gothenburg Box 713 SE 405 30 GÖTEBORG, Sweden In 1997, the Nordic Information Centre for Media Web site: and Communication Research (Nordicom), Göteborg www.nordicom.gu.se/clearinghouse University Sweden, began establishment of the International Clearinghouse on Children, Youth DIRECTOR: Ulla Carlsson and Media. The overall point of departure for the SCIENTIFIC CO-ORDINATOR: Clearinghouse’s efforts with respect to children, youth Cecilia von Feilitzen Tel:+46 8 608 48 58 and media is the UN Convention on the Rights of the Fax:+46 8 608 46 40 Child. [email protected] The aim of the Clearinghouse is to increase INFORMATION CO-ORDINATOR: awareness and knowledge about children, youth and Catharina Bucht media, thereby providing a basis for relevant policy- Tel: +46 31 786 49 53 making, contributing to a constructive public debate, Fax: +46 31 786 46 55 [email protected] and enhancing children’s and young people’s media literacy and media competence. -
Firstchoice Wusf
firstchoice wusf for information, education and entertainment • decemBer 2009 André Rieu Live in Dresden: Wedding at the Opera Recorded at Dresden’s Semper Opera House in 2008, this musical confection from André Rieu is both a concert and a real wedding party in one of the world’s most beautiful opera houses. The charming bride and groom, part of the famous “Vienna Debutantes,” are joined by 40 pairs of dancers from the Elmayer Dance School in Vienna, as well as sopranos Mirusia Louwerse and Carmen Monarcha, the Platinum Tenors, baritone Morschi Franz, and the Johann Strauss Orchestra and Choir. Airs Tuesday, December 1 at 8 p.m. from the wusf gm Season’s As you plan your year-end Greetings charitable giving, please consider a contribution to HE HOLIDAYS CAME EARLY THIS YEAR WUSF. It’s tax-deductible, T at WUSF Public Broadcasting. Thanks to you, WUSF 89.7’s Fall Membership Campaign it’s easy and it will make a was an unqualified success. We welcomed difference in your community. 1,050 new members to our family and raised more than $400,000 from new and renewing Just call Cathy Coccia at members. Bravo to everyone involved! 813-974-8624 or go online Speaking about our loyal supporters, we recently celebrated our Cornerstone Society to wusf.org and click members during the second annual Corner- on the Give Now button. stone Appreciation event. This year’s guest was the witty and insightful Susan Stamberg, Make a gift that gives back – an NPR special correspondent. She touched to you and your neighbors. -
AETN Resource Guide for Child Care Professionals
AAEETTNN RReessoouurrccee GGuuiiddee ffoorr CChhiilldd CCaarree PPrrooffeessssiioonnaallss Broadcast Schedule PARENTING COUNTS RESOURCES A.M. HELP PARENTS 6:00 Between the Lions The resource-rich PARENTING 6:30 Maya & Miguel COUNTS project provides caregivers 7:00 Arthur and parents a variety of multi-level 7:30 Martha Speaks resources. Professional development 8:00 Curious George workshops presented by AETN provide a hands-on 8:30 Sid the Science Kid opportunity to explore and use the videos, lesson plans, 9:00 Super WHY! episode content and parent workshop formats. Once child 9:30 Clifford the Big Red Dog care providers are trained using the materials, they are able to 10:00 Sesame Street conduct effective parent workshops and provide useful 11:00 Dragon Tales handouts to parents and other caregivers. 11:30 WordWorld P.M. PARENTS AND CAREGIVERS 12:00 Mr. Rogers’ Neighborhood CAN ASK THE EXPERTS 12:30 Big Comfy Couch The PBS online Expert Q&A gives 1:00 Reading Rainbow parents and caregivers the opportunity to 1:30 Between the Lions ask an expert in the field of early childhood 2:00 Caillou development for advice. The service includes information 2:30 Curious George about the expert, provides related links and gives information 3:00 Martha Speaks about other experts. Recent subjects include preparing 3:30 Wordgirl children for school, Internet safety and links to appropriate 4:00 Fetch with Ruff Ruffman PBS parent guides. The format is easy and friendly. To ask 4:30 Cyberchase the experts, visit http://www.pbs.org/parents/issuesadvice. STAY CURRENT WITH THE FREE STATIONBREAK NEWS FOR EDUCATORS AETN StationBreak News for Educators provides a unique (and free) resource for parents, child care professionals and other educators. -
NHPTV Ready to Learn Enhance Learning with the Learning Triangle
Enhance Learning with the Learning Triangle We all have different learning styles: Visual (what we see) Auditory (what we hear) Tactile/kinesthetic (what we feel or do) The VIEW-READ-DO Learning Triangle combines all three by using related video, books, and activities about any theme or subject. The first step is to videotape children’s programs so that you can: preview; show at your convenience; watch over and over; and use as an effective teaching and learning tool by being able to cue, pause or stop, fast forward and rewind the tape. You can show specific short segments, discuss with children what they see, have them predict what might come next, explain new vocabulary words, and relate to a child’s own experiences. Visit www.nhptv.org/programs.schedule.asp for program schedule and a brief description of episode content and focus. Then, find age-appropriate books to read aloud and plan activites for children to do--draw pictures, act out or retell the story, projects, field trips. Add the Learning Triangle to your teaching toolbox. NHPTV Ready To Learn Pat VanWagoner, RTL Coordinator, (603) 868-4352, [email protected] Nancy Pearson, Education Assistant, (603) 868-4353, [email protected] FAX: (603) 868-7552 Web Site: www.nhptv.org/rtl Ready To Learn Education Partners: Norwin S. & Elizabeth Bean Foundation, The Byrne Foundation, Benjamin Couch Trust, Jefferson Pilot Financial, The Linden Foundation, Samuel P. Pardoe Foundation, and Verizon. “The contents of this newsletter are supported under the Ready-To-Learn Television Program, P/R Award Number R295A00002, as administered by the Office of Educational Research and Improvement, U.S. -
A Capitol Fourth Monday, July 4 at 8Pm on WOSU TV Details on Page 3 All Programs Are Subject to Change
July 2016 • wosu.org A Capitol Fourth Monday, July 4 at 8pm on WOSU TV details on page 3 All programs are subject to change. VOLUME 37 • NUMBER 7 Airfare (UPS 372670) is published except for June, July and August by: WOSU Public Media 2400 Olentangy River Road, Columbus, OH 43210 614.292.9678 Copyright 2016 by The Ohio State University. All rights reserved. No part of this magazine may be reproduced in any form or by any means without express written permission from the publisher. Subscription is by a Columbus on the Record celebrates a Milestone. minimum contribution of $60 to WOSU Public Media, of which $3.25 is allocated to Airfare. Periodicals postage paid at Columbus, Ohio. WOSU Politics – A Landmark Summer POSTMASTER: Send address changes to Airfare, 2400 Olentangy River Road, Columbus, OH 43210 This will be a special summer of political coverage on WOSU TV. Now in its eleventh season, Columbus on the Record will celebrate its 500th episode in July. When it debuted in January, WOSU Public Media 2006, Columbus on the Record was the only local political show on Columbus broadcast TV. General Manager Tom Rieland Hosted by Emmy® award-winning moderator Mike Thompson, Columbus on the Record has Director of Marketing Meredith Hart become must-watch TV for political junkies and civic leaders around Ohio. The show, with & Communications its diverse group of panelists, provides thoughtful and balanced analysis of central Ohio’s Membership Rob Walker top stories. “The key to the show is our panelists, all of them volunteers,” says Thompson Friends of WOSU Board who serves as WOSU’s Chief Content Director for News and Public Affairs. -
Wordgirl Lesson Plan
WordGirl Super Storytelling! Lesson Summary Estimated Time: 35-40 minutes What makes a good story? One place to learn is by watching PBS KIDS where stories come to life—like in WordGirl! Engaging characters, unique settings, and crazy problems to overcome are just some of the elements of good storytelling. From battling with brothers to catching criminals, WordGirl brings exciting and interesting stories to her audience. Students will try their hand at storytelling by using WordGirl images as a pattern and for inspiration. Get the super story juices owing as your students mix up characters, settings, and plots for their own super story creations. Big Question How can I make interesting stories? This lesson will help students to: WordGirl Words 1. Understand the concepts of character, setting and plot. 2. Learn and use new vocabulary. character 3. Cooperatively work and create a story together. a person within a story Media Resources setting WordGirl, “Becky Knows Best” the place a story takes place Materials plot Three bowls or baskets, for drawing out cards the action or problem within WordGirl Storytelling printable: a story • Characters • Settings • Plot (or obstacles, problems—keep these simple and let students elaborate) Classroom or WordGirl Vocabulary list (Examples include: ignore, colossal, vegetarian, ultimate, and tempt.) Paper Pencil Dictionary Chart Paper Markers Find more games and activities at pbskidsforparents.org Made available by the Corporation for Public Broadcasting, a private corporation funded by the American people. PBS KIDS and the PBS KIDS Logo are registered trademarks of Public Broadcasting Service. Used with permission. WORDGIRL TM & © Scholastic Inc. All Rights Reserved. -
WGBH Studio at the Boston Public Library ADVERTISEMENTADVERTISEMENT from the President Where to Tune In
Beyond a Year in Space | 16 Anne of Green Gables: The Good Stars | 20 Jazz 24/7 Honored | 26 ON AIR, ONLINE, ON THE GO MEMBER GUIDE | NOVEMBER 2017 WGBH Studio at the Boston Public Library ADVERTISEMENTADVERTISEMENT From the President Where to Tune in The Next Chapter TV It was just over a year ago that we took a major step in extending our reach into the community and expanding the range of programs and content we offer with the opening of Digital broadcast FiOS RCN Cox Charter (Canada) Bell ExpressVu the WGBH Studio at the Boston Public Library (BPL) in Copley Square. Comcast And it’s been quite a year! Since the studio’s inaugural broadcast of WGBH 2 2.1 2 2 2 2 2 284 Boston Public Radio, we have been inviting the public in on a daily basis to WGBH 2 HD 2.1 802 502 602 1002 782 819 join us, interact with us, share their perspectives and connect in a way that WGBX 44 44.1 16 44 14 804 21 n/a informs our work. Our unique partnership with the BPL, another of Boston’s major cultural WGBX 44 HD 44.1 801 544 n/a n/a n/a n/a institutions, has given us an extraordinary live platform for bringing our World 2.2 956 473 94 807 181 n/a journalism, arts, education and other innovative programming to the WGBH Create 44.3 959 474 95 805 182 n/a audience and library WGBH Kids 44.4 958 472 93 n/a 180 n/a visitors alike. -
Children's DVD Titles (Including Parent Collection)
Children’s DVD Titles (including Parent Collection) - as of July 2017 NRA ABC monsters, volume 1: Meet the ABC monsters NRA Abraham Lincoln PG Ace Ventura Jr. pet detective (SDH) PG A.C.O.R.N.S: Operation crack down (CC) NRA Action words, volume 1 NRA Action words, volume 2 NRA Action words, volume 3 NRA Activity TV: Magic, vol. 1 PG Adventure planet (CC) TV-PG Adventure time: The complete first season (2v) (SDH) TV-PG Adventure time: Fionna and Cake (SDH) TV-G Adventures in babysitting (SDH) G Adventures in Zambezia (SDH) NRA Adventures of Bailey: Christmas hero (SDH) NRA Adventures of Bailey: The lost puppy NRA Adventures of Bailey: A night in Cowtown (SDH) G The adventures of Brer Rabbit (SDH) NRA The adventures of Carlos Caterpillar: Litterbug TV-Y The adventures of Chuck & friends: Bumpers up! TV-Y The adventures of Chuck & friends: Friends to the finish TV-Y The adventures of Chuck & friends: Top gear trucks TV-Y The adventures of Chuck & friends: Trucks versus wild TV-Y The adventures of Chuck & friends: When trucks fly G The adventures of Ichabod and Mr. Toad (CC) G The adventures of Ichabod and Mr. Toad (2014) (SDH) G The adventures of Milo and Otis (CC) PG The adventures of Panda Warrior (CC) G Adventures of Pinocchio (CC) PG The adventures of Renny the fox (CC) NRA The adventures of Scooter the penguin (SDH) PG The adventures of Sharkboy and Lavagirl in 3-D (SDH) NRA The adventures of Teddy P. Brains: Journey into the rain forest NRA Adventures of the Gummi Bears (3v) (SDH) PG The adventures of TinTin (CC) NRA Adventures with