Re: Banned Right Hand Turn Movement of Motor Vehicles to St Bernard’s Road and Leckford Road from Walton Street and Kingston Road Respectively

Oxfordshire County Council have asked the Jericho Low Traffic Neighbourhood Group to respond to the proposal to introduce an Experimental Traffic Regulation Order (ETRO) to ban the following motor vehicle movements:

• Right hand turn into St Bernard’s Road from Walton Street • Right hand turn into Leckford Road form Kingston Road

In essence we support this proposal, but our recommendation would be that, if the Jericho and low traffic neighbourhood can be implemented by January, then it would be better to divert the resources expended on the no right turns into the LTN, as this will provide a more comprehensive and long term solution and a more genuinely equitable distribution of traffic in Walton Manor and Jericho. Furthermore, depending on the precise design of the LTN and further analysis of anticipated traffic movements, we would expect that the no right turn restrictions would need to be removed once the LTN is introduced, meaning that the changes are unlikely to be in place for any significant length of time.

What would not be acceptable to us is a significant delay in the introduction of the LTN, beyond spring 2021 as with the changes proposed, this will result in a large volume of traffic passing down Kingston Road, or without them down St Bernard’s Road and Leckford Road, for an unacceptable length of time.

OUR ANALYSIS To support our position, we have analysed two traffic surveys undertaken by the council between 24th January 20 and 10th February 20, and between 25th June 20 and 2nd July 20. There are two key differences between these two dates:

• The current signage discouraging drivers from turning right into St Bernard’s Road was introduced between these two dates. • The earlier period was prior to the COVID 19 lockdown while the later period was during the later stages of lockdown. From June 15, non-essential shops could reopen in England and from July 4, restaurants, pubs and hairdressers were given the green light to reopen.

The figures below show both the actual average number of motorised vehicles per day, and the percentage of all traffic in and out of the area that these represent. Some notes on this methodology and its potential limitations are given at the end of this document.

As of 24th January to 10th February 20:

Cars, LGVs and motorcycles VOLUMES PERCENTAGES IN OUT ALL IN OUT ALL South Walton St 0 0 0 0% 0% 0% Kingston/Farndon/St Ms/Polstead 664 1453 2117 14% 30% 22% Leckford Road 933 1163 2096 20% 24% 22% 1-way streets Little Clarendon St (LCS) 1574 0 1574 34% 0% 17% Observatory 1465 0 1465 32% 0% 16% St Bernard’s Road (SBR) 0 2171 2171 0% 45% 23% Total 4636 4787 9423 100% 100% 100%

As of 25th June to 2nd July 20:

Cars, LGVs and motorcycles As of end June 20 As of end June 20 IN OUT ALL IN OUT ALL South Walton St 0 0 0 0% 0% 0% Kingston/Farndon/St Ms/Polstead 504 1009 1513 15% 31% 23% Leckford Road 655 873 1528 20% 27% 23% 1-way streets LCS (Estimate) 1100 1100 34% 0% 17% Observatory 1006 0 1006 31% 0% 15% St Bernard’s Road (SBR) 0 1381 1381 0% 42% 21% Total 3265 3263 6528 100% 100% 100%

In January, St Bernard’s Road experienced the highest volumes of traffic in and out of the area out of all routes, despite being a one-way street. Kingston Road had the second highest volumes.

The percentage of all outbound traffic on St Bernard’s Road stood at 45% in January and 42% in June. And in Leckford Road stood at 24% in January and 27% in June. It can be seen that between January and July traffic in the area as a whole reduced by around 30%. This reduction was lowest in Leckford Road, where it was 27%, and highest in St Bernard’s Road, at 36%:

Kingston/Farndon/St Margaret’s/Polstead 29% Leckford Road 27% Little Clarendon Street (Estimate) 30% Observatory 31% St Bernard’s Road (SBR) 36%

This would suggest that only a very small amount of traffic, perhaps 7% of it, respected the signage discouraging a no right turn into St Bernard’s Road, and the vehicles that did then entered Leckford Road instead. This would indicate that the measures introduced have been largely ineffective, which supports our own personal observations of traffic movements.

IMPACT OF THE NO RIGHT TURNS We have also undertaken a similar analysis of the survey of traffic movements at the Walton Street on the 28th January 2020 between 07:00 and 18.45. This shows traffic entering and leaving the roundabout by both volume and percentage to be as follows:

Leaving roundabout: Entering Walton Walton Well Kingston St Bernard’s TOTAL roundabout: St Road Road Road entering: Walton St 12 268 1322 1281 2883 Walton Well Road 77 1 166 261 505 Kingston Road 493 132 6 87 718 St Bernard’s Road 0 0 0 0 0 TOTAL leaving: 582 401 1494 1629 4106

Leaving roundabout: Entering Walton Walton Well Kingston St Bernard’s TOTAL roundabout: St Road Road Road entering: Walton St 0% 7% 32% 31% 70% Walton Well Road 2% 0% 4% 6% 12% Kingston Road 12% 3% 0% 2% 17% St Bernard’s Road 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% TOTAL leaving: 14% 10% 36% 40% 100%

It can be seen that that 70% of the traffic entering the roundabout is coming from Walton Street, and that the greatest proportion of it leaving the roundabout was going down St Bernard’s Road.

With the no right turns introduced, it would be fair to assume that all the traffic that had previously turned from Walton Street into St Bernard’s Road would continue up Kingston Road. This would mean that traffic at the roundabout as per the Jan 20 figures would enter and exit as follows:

Leaving roundabout: Entering Walton Walton Well Kingston St Bernard’s TOTAL roundabout: St Road Road Road entering: Walton St 12 268 2603 0 2883 Walton Well Road 77 1 166 261 505 Kingston Road 493 132 6 87 718 St Bernard’s Road 0 0 0 0 0 TOTAL leaving: 582 401 2775 348 4106

Leaving roundabout: Entering Walton Walton Well Kingston St Bernard’s TOTAL roundabout: St Road Road Road entering: Walton St 0% 7% 63% 0% 70% Walton Well Road 2% 0% 4% 6% 12% Kingston Road 12% 3% 0% 2% 17% St Bernard’s Road 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% TOTAL leaving: 14% 10% 68% 8% 100%

This would lead to an estimated increase of 1,281 vehicles a day in Kingston Road.

Looking back to the Jan 20 figures, the total traffic volume in Kingston Road was 2,117 vehicles. A further 1,281 vehicles is a 60% increase, This compares to a 75% reduction (from 1,381 to 348) in St Bernard’s Road. The final distribution following the changes may then be as follows, although this is still likely to underestimate the traffic up Kingston Road as some traffic that would have turned right into Leckford Road will now have to carry on up Kingston Road:

Cars, LGVs and motorcycles VOLUMES PERCENTAGES IN OUT ALL IN OUT ALL South Walton St 0 0 0 0% 0% 0% Kingston/Farndon/St Ms/Polstead 664 2734 3398 14% 57% 36% Leckford Road 933 1163 2096 20% 24% 22% 1-way streets Little Clarendon St (LCS) 1574 0 1574 34% 0% 17% Observatory 1465 0 1465 32% 0% 16% St Bernard’s Road (SBR) 0 890 890 0% 19% 9% Total 4636 4787 9423 100% 100% 100%

IN CONCLUSION We believe that the priority objectives of all future traffic management schemes in any area should be to first look to reduce the overall volume of traffic, and then to equally distribute it between the streets of that area.

The high volumes of traffic seen in St Bernard’s Road in both January and June shows that firm action needs to be taken. St Bernard’s Road is a narrow street with houses close to the road and so is less able to take traffic than Kingston Road, Leckford Road or other residential streets coming off Kingston Road to the north. The measures implemented between January and June would appear to have been largely ineffective.

However, the reduction of traffic leaving the area via St Bernard’s Road and Leckford Road as a result of the no right turns will mean a significant increase in traffic in Kingston Road. With the Walton Street barrier closed, rhis traffic is likely to mostly turn into Tackley Place and , meaning that Farndon Road and the Southern end of Kingston Road will be taking a disproportionately high volume of the traffic leaving the area.

We therefore consider that, given that South Walton Street has taken high levels of traffic for many years and St Bernard’s Road has taken a high volume for the last 15 months, it is fair for Kingston Road, Tackley Place and Farndon Road to take a higher volume until an LTN can be introduced.

However, this must be done in a sensible time frame, by Spring 2021 or by May 21 when the barrier at the south end of Walton Street is due to be removed at the very latest.

We also have some concern that the no right turn signs will cause some traffic to divert down Walton Well Road, up and straight across into Leckford Road.

NOTES ON METHDOLOGY • The figures analysed include cars, vans, lorries and motorcycles but not cycles. • The total flow analysis attempts to measure all route in and out of the area. The only route for which no figures are available is Plantation Road, however volumes here are small and have been ignored. • Little Clarendon Street was monitored in January but not in June. The figures for June have been estimated. This is done on the basis that the number of vehicles in will be the same as the number of vehicles out of the area. • It has been assumed that no traffic is entering or leaving the area via the south end of Walton Street. However this will not be the case as despite the barrier this route is used by some motorcycles. • The January figures cover 18 days and the Jun-July figures cover 8 days. This may lead to some slight anomaly as a higher proportion of weekend days are included in the January figures.