ANALYSIS of the COSTS and BENEFITS of MEDICARE CATASTROPHIC COVERAGE ACT of 1988 and the FINANCIAL IMPACT on the ELDERLY by Jane
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ANALYSIS OF THE COSTS AND BENEFITS OF MEDICARE CATASTROPHIC COVERAGE ACT OF 1988 and THE FINANCIAL IMPACT ON THE ELDERLY by Janet M. Wood Presented to the Public Administration Faculty at The University of M1ch1gan-Fl1nt 1n partial fulfillment of the requirements for the Master of Public Administration Degree April 1991 First Reader Second Reader DEDICATION I wish to dedicate this to my husband Don, whose help and support gave me the courage to finish. TABLE OF CONTENTS page I. INTRODUCTION...................................... 1 II. HISTORICAL BACKGROUND ................................ 7 A. Legislative History B. Comparison of Proposed Bills C. Provisions of MECCA D. Protest and Repeal III. METHODOLOGY ............................................ 48 IV. STATEMENT OF PROBLEM ....................... ..... 52 V. DISCUSSION.............................................. 54 A. Simulated Cases VI. CONCLUSION.............................................. 80 VII. REFERENCES.............................................. 88 INTRODUCTION The United States spends more on medical care— both in absolute terms and as a percentage of its gross national product— than any other industrialized nation. American medical care is unsurpassed in technological and sophistication, but its costs are very high and rising rapidly. The variety of cost containment programs developed over the past decade has had little effect on overall expenditures. The rapid and continuing increases in our nation’s resources devoted to personal medical services, and the increasing role of our government in financing those services, has raised the issue of health care funding to the forefront of public policy and opinion. Health care will consume increasing portions of the gross national product (GNP) in the first half of the 1990’s, hitting 13.5 percent in 1995. The future level of health care as a percent of the GNP has serious policy implications, say executives at Health One Corporation, Minneapolis. "If by 1995 we end up at 14 percent of the GNP, or higher, I think there will be such an outcry that we’ll end up with some form of socialized medicine," says Dick Blair, Health One’s executive vice president and chief financial officer (Solovy, July 20, 1989). The increasing numbers in the aging population has an important implication on the future of health care financing. It will increase 1 the prevalence of chronic health conditions, disability and fraility will increase the demand for health and long-term care services. In 1980, 26 million people, or 11% of the population, were 65 and over. As the post World War II baby boom cohort reaches retirement, the aged population is expected to grow to 59 million, or 19% of the population in 2030. Given current estimates of mortality trends, major increases are expected in the numbers of older women. The female population age 85 and over will triple between 1980 and 2030, with more than 75% of these women single or widowed. People living alone or without a spouse are at greater risk of needing long-term care assistance (Davis, Karen, Winter 1987, Symposium Report). The future growth of the population of those aged 85 years and over, a group frequently referred to as the “oldest old," will have a substantial impact on future health care costs. This age group is projected to grow from 2.5 million persons in 1980 to as high as 24 million persons in 2040 (Schneider, Edward, JAMA 1989). The dramatic growth of the elderly population seems to be the result of an increased awareness of necessary life-style changes to promote wellness, and various technological advances in the medical field, all contributing to longevity. In 1960 a woman reaching age 65 could expect to live until age 81, in 1980 she could expect to live until age 83, and by 2000 she can expect to live until age 86. Life expectancy for men at age 65 has increased from 78 years in 1960 to 79 years in 1980 and is expected to increase to 81 years in 2000 (Davis, Karen, Winter 1987). 2 Although there have been significant reductions in mortality from heart disease and stroke in recent years, death rates from cancer are increasing among the elderly population. There seems to be some controversy whether the average age-adjusted health status of the elderly will improve or decline. What is evident is that as the number of old people increases so will the number of people with chronic conditions or limited functional ability. Growth in the size of the elderly population will bring with 1t the greatest demands on the health care system, as well as increasing concerns over means of financing that care. The number of physician visits by the elderly is expected to double between 1980 and 2000 (according to Karen Davis, Symposium Report), even if there is no increase in the rate at which groups of elderly use physician services. Davis projects that, Total hospital days for persons 65 and over should increase from 105 million in 1980 to 273 million in 2000, almost tripling hospital use by the aged in a 20 year period. Their share of hospital days will increase from 38% in 1980 to an estimated 58% in 2000. The number of aged in nursing homes will rise from 1.2 million in 1980 to an estimated 1.8 million in 2000 if current age specific rates of institutionalization continue. It is not surprising, therefore, that there exists an increasing concern over the funding of health care needs of these aging Americans. On July 1, 1966 the federal government initiated health service benefits under Medicare Title XVIII and Medicaid Title XIX, of the Social Security Act. The introduction of Medicare and Medicaid was 3 probably one of the most significant social welfare programs undertaken by the federal government since the introduction of Social Security (Mehl, Bernard, 1988). After two years of White House and Congressional legislative debate, President Reagan signed into law on July 1, 1988 Medicare’s largest expansion since its inception in 1966. The Medicare Catastrophic Coverage Act of 1988 (MECCA) was designed to somewhat shield the 32 million elderly and disabled beneficiaries from the rising costs of hospital care, physician care, prescription drug costs, while mandating extended coverage to the poor through the state Medicaid programs. This new expansion of covered benefits was expected to assist an estimated 8 million of the elderly and disabled who incur catastrophic expenses for their health needs. The total cost of the program was estimated to be nearly $33 billion over the next five years (Wilson, Nick, November 1988). In 1966 Medicare costs were $1.1 billion. By 1986 these costs had risen to $76 billion. Medicare has become the nation’s largest single purchaser of physician and hospital services (Wilson, Nick, 1988). The Catastrophic Coverage Act of 1988 was designed to be budget neutral: the cost of the expanded coverage was to be paid for by the Medicare beneficiaries themselves. In the main the Act’s provisions became effective in January 1989 or January 1990. Although certain provisions, such as the drug plan, are phased in over a period of several years. 4 Somehow the taxpayers didn’t get the rise of what was being done in Congress to finance the cost. Congressmen and administration spokesmen were issuing statements telling the voters what wonderful things were being done without explaining what it was going to cost. It was into this void that James Roosevelt, son of President Franklin D. Roosevelt, believed to have looked favorably at national health insurance, saw an opportunity for his then somewhat obscure National Committee to Preserve Social Security and Medicare. He needed an issue, and there it was. Mr. Roosevelt mailed huge amounts of frantic warnings to those taxpayers, telling them they were about to be exorbitantly taxed. The upper- and particularly the middle- income groups reacted with angry letters to Capitol Hill (CQ, October 14, 1989, p. 2714). The reaction tended to come from those groups more than from the poor, who are less likely to write to their congressman. Movements to change, if not repeal the legislation began to develop. This paper examines the benefits and the costs of the Medicare Catastrophic Coverage Act of 1988, as it relates to those 65 years and older, focusing on methods of funding and impact of those methods on various economic groups of elderly. Through literature search and examination of documents and various surveys I will examine the proposed methods of funding. Researching hearings from the House of Representatives, as well as several Senate committees, an analysis will be made of costs of medical services as well as the length of time it would take to plunge the 5 elderly into poverty should they experience a chronic illness or require long term care. Public Law 100-360 will be evaluated for costs and benefits to the enrol lees with emphasis on equity in financing. Equity will be measured by looking at income and portions of income spent out-of-pocket on health care. A determination will then be made whether the benefits outweighed the costs for elderly participants of differing income levels. 6 HISTORICAL BACKGROUND The debate over paying for the nation’s health care has spanned several decades and continues to be a volatile issue in 1989. Teddy Roosevelt first made national health insurance an issue in the Bull Moose campaign of 1912. Since then and with varying degrees of intensity, the issue has held a place on the national political agenda. The emergence of voluntary private health insurance programs in the 1930’s momentarily dampened but did not eliminate the demand for government intervention. The issue re-surfaced under the Truman administration, but no legislation was generated. During the prosperous days of the political movement of the 1960’s much was said about the need for a broad-based program of publicly financed health care for all Americans.