Vol. 3 - Issue 26

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JUNE 22 - 28, 2020 – VOL. 3 - ISSUE 26

SOUTHEASTERN EUROPE

AT A GLANCE

SOUTHEAST EUROPE DIRECTORATE

PROVIDING KNOWLEDGE TO THOSE WHO SHAPE THE FUTURE “SOUTHEASTERN EUROPE AT A GLANCE” (ISSN: 2654-0304) is a weekly review of the most significant current political, economic, energy, defense, and security news of Southeastern Europe. It covers 14 countries; Albania, Bosnia & Herzegovina, Bulgaria, Croatia, Cyprus, Greece, Kosovo, Moldova, Montenegro, North Macedonia, Romania, Serbia, Slovenia, and Turkey. However Greece enjoys its own weekly review for a more detailed presentation of its current affairs (GREECE AT A GLANCE).

This ambitious newsletter aspires to become an informative “tool” for anyone who is interested in the region and wishes to have knowledge of the non-stop current developments and challenges. “HERMES” Institute is not a news agency and it is not one of its ambitions to become one but it is strongly believed that today’s events provide the necessary material to understand the future and to analyze situations that may affect in peace, stability, and growth of the region.

“HERMES” I.I.A.S.GE

“HERMES” Institute of International Affairs, Security & Geoeconomy (“HERMES” I.I.A.S.GE) is an independent, non – governmental, non – profit organization, consisting of scholars dedicated in the research and analysis of international affairs in regional and global level. The Institute aims at providing objective, scientific, and reliable research analysis through a variety of studies contributing effectively and constructively in the public dialogue and the evolution of scientific knowledge.

“HERMES” Institute for Foreign Affairs, Security & Geoeconomy

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part of Turkish influence in the Balkans and that rd ALBANIA: June 23 , ethnic Turkey has strong ties to the “radical part of minorities in Albania that make up 20% or more Kosovo.” He also drew attention to the kidnap and of their municipalities of residence will be able to extradition of five Turkish teachers in Kosovo and use their language in Government offices. one in Albania. “Albania has the right to have The draft-decision prepared by the Albanian good relations with Turkey, but we do not think Government stipulates that ethnic minorities must that the policy chosen at the moment in this file a request with the municipality and the regard is in line with European standards,” he municipal council will rule on it within 60 days. said. German MEP Zimnok Berhard said that The request must be signed by at least 1% of the Turkey is using Albania as a base for expansion ethnic minority population. If the request is towards Europe. “Turks are working towards a approved, the municipality will provide new Ottoman Empire. They are doing this translations into the language of the requesting through increased armaments and through ethnic minority for ethnic minority legal rights, religion…I see it as a problem,” Berhard said. He transparency program access, public consultation also said he does not believe that Albania will sessions, requests and complaints filed with the implement the necessary reforms as “they are not municipality, citizen initiatives. Additionally, the a part of our European values.” Berhard called municipality will install road signs translated into for a stop to the “flow of money into Albania, and the ethnic minority’s language. The draft-decision the accession process.” He said that “Albania in comes within the framework of the 15 conditions the EU will bring big and unnecessary problems.” set out by the EU, which Albania must meet Hungarian MEP Katalin Cseh called the before it can hold the first intergovernmental relationship between Albania and Turkey conference. One of the conditions is the approval “disturbing,” particularly in the way it developed of bylaws on the Law on National Minorities. after the failed 2016 coup d’etat. Cseh also (www.exit.al) mentioned the extradition of perceived Gulenists who risk persecution and arrest if they enter - June 24th, Turkish influence in Albania has Turkey. “I want to talk about one last case, a begun to raise concerns in EU institutions. During well-documented case. Turkish citizen Selami a discussion session on Albania that took place on Simsek was arrested at Tirana airport and Friday in the European Parliament’s Foreign imprisoned for using forged documents. Although Affairs Committee, a number of MEPs criticized he was released on March 9th, 2020 Police held the close relationship between the Albanian and him for hours before sending him to a center for Turkish Government. These concerns were in the illegal immigrants. Although Mr Simsek applied context of Turkish influence in the Balkans and for asylum, the status of his application and his the persecution of those accused of being whereabouts are being kept secret by the involved in the Gulenist movement. Three MEPs Albanian authorities,” Cseh said. In response to from the Committee expressed doubts about their concerns, Angelina Eichhorst, the Director Albania’s will and desire to join the EU. French for Europe and Central Asia in the European MEP Thierry Mariani said that Albania is a key Commission said that the concerns of MEPs are

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somewhat exaggerated and should be seen in prosecution, and proliferation finance sanctions. context, emphasizing that some 90% of Albanians While in June 2019, the Government enforced are in favor of EU membership. She claimed that legislation to combat this, the report said further the Commission is monitoring the relationship regulations and actions need to be taken so it can and would report on it if there were any real actually be implemented effectively. concerns. Eichhorst did not address the (www.exit.al) extradition of Turkish citizens to Turkey without following due process. (www.exit.al.com) COUNTRY ASSESSMENT :

- June 25th, the US State Department has noted The Government tried to downgrade the 15 that “corruption and barriers to information conditions Albania should meet before starting of sharing among Government agencies, insufficient accession negotiations on first quarter of 2021. intra-agency coordination, and a poorly The fact is that Albania should fulfill them and functioning judicial system, continue to hinder there is a lot of work ahead if it really seeks to Albania’s law enforcement efforts at all levels. reach the deadlines. It is assessed that under The remarks were made as a part of the current political instability it is rather difficult the 2019 Country Report on Terrorism, compiled by Government to accelerate reforms on minority the Department. Despite these issues, they found rights, media freedom, fight against corruption that law enforcement had increased efforts to and organized crime, justice, public counter potential terrorist threats through close administration and economy. Social and political cooperation with US agencies and INTERPOL. unrest could erupt at any time. Albania is in a There were also “several successful interdictions long constitutional and institutional crisis and of known or suspected terrorists.” It noted the this situation strengthens political instability and alleged foiling of a potential attack planned by uncertainty. Above all, it should be underlined Iranian agents against MEK members living in that corruption, organized crime (and especially Albania. Current threats to the country include links of state’s politics with organized crime), FTFs returning from Syria and Iraq, Albanian money laundering and smuggling remain as youth being radicalized, and the threat of Iran “open sores” for the country. Turkish influence in against the controversial residence of Iranian Albania is under the EU microscope as a opposition group MEK in Manze near Durres. potential challenge of its cohesion and regional The Department noted that Albania was stability. continuing to take steps to enhance border security, to detect and deny entry to terrorists and BOSNIA & HERZEGOVINA: comply with international standards to improve June 22nd, the only necessary and swift measure the screening of air passengers. In terms of concerning migrants in Bosnia and Herzegovina Countering the Financing of Terrorism, the is extraditing them to their countries of origin as Department reported that Albania has scored “low soon as their identities are confirmed, Bosnia’s effectiveness” in three immediate areas including Serb Presidency member Milorad Dodik said on confiscation, terrorist finance investigation and Sunday, following the session of his Alliance of

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Independent Social Democrats (Savez Nezavisnih authority of the competent state institutions, and Socijaldemokrata - SNSD) executive board. “We to facilitate their activities and those of demand full sterilization from migrants on our international partners. This is the only way to territories and securing a full safety of our ensure the security of citizens of your Canton in people,” Dodik told the reporters, adding that the current situation. Should this not be the case, Republika Srpska, Bosnia’s Serb-majority region, the Commission will reconsider its assistance in will not allow any reception centers for migrants the area of migration management that Bosnia to be set up on its territory. “It is unacceptable and Herzegovina and in particular the Una-Sana that some western institutions send demands more Canton have been benefiting so far,” said a letter and more often to have the migrant issue that the EC’s Commissioner Christian Danielsson distributed across Bosnia and Herzegovina. We wrote to the Head of USK Government, Mustafa reject that and we will not take part in that,” he Ruznic. (www.ba.n1info.com) underlined. Dodik’s statement comes amid a new - June 25th, the Republika Srpska (RS) bought wave of migrant arrivals to Bosnia, in the wake of three Russian “ANSAT” helicopters for the needs the relaxed coronavirus restriction measures of its Police, and the first will be delivered to RS across the region and end of the lockdown. After in September, announced member of Presidency entering the country’s eastern border, the migrants of BiH, Milorad Dodik, The Srpska move to its northwest hoping they would cross the Times reports. “Despite all the pressure from border with the European Union and reach their Western partners to prevent this procurement, we final destinations across Europe. But, as Croatia still carried it out,” said Dodik. In January, the keeps its borders closed for illegal migrants, they Ministry of Internal Affairs of RS announced the are stranded in the towns near the Bosnia - selection of helicopter suppliers for around 22 Croatia border, mostly accommodated in a few million euro, and the company “Russian internationally-funded migrant centers but also Helicopters” was listed as the only bidder. These occupying public areas in urban zones. The are three “ANSAT” light helicopters. Delivery of authorities of the northwestern Una-Sana Canton light helicopters from the Russian city of Kazan is (USK) recently addressed the European Union expected in September this year, in May 2021 and officials, expressing concerns about the temporary January 2022, the Russian agency writes. RS migrant camps set up in the canton’s urban zones Helicopter Service currently has three “CA- and demanding their shutdown. But, the warnings 341/342” Aerospatiale Gazelle and one “Bell 206 they would close the camps in the city and open Jet Ranger” helicopters. This service provides another open-air camp for migrants modelled medical evacuation and transport in RS, assists in after the infamous “Vucjak camp,” which was the operations of the Ministry of Internal Affairs, closed last year under the pressure of international and trains pilots. (www.sarajevotimes.com) organizations, led the European Commission’s officials to threaten with cutting the financial - June 28th, Bosnia’s political system suffers from support for the migration management in Bosnia. patronage, conflicts of interest and corruption “The Commission expects the cantonal authorities while public trust in institutions is low, the Head to respect the domestic legislation and the of the OSCE Mission in Bosnia, Kathleen

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Kavalec, said at a session of the Krug 99 and independent nature of institutions - especially association of independent intellectuals on institutions that are as important as the CEC - Sunday. “The functioning of Parliaments is must be unconditionally guaranteed,” Kavalec problematic, and citizens’ trust in politicians, stressed. She said the OSCE is prepared to work political parties, elections and public institutions with political parties and the Parliaments within is low. Unfortunately, we face a lack of serious Bosnia and Herzegovina, as well as with the CEC, policy debate between citizens and politicians, on the implementation of the OSCE’s Office for and internal party democracies are Democratic Institutions and Human Rights underdeveloped,” Kavalec said. She said that this (ODIHR) through amendments to bylaws. She also applies to issues such as the barriers women argued that systemic shortcomings in legislation, and youth face regarding their participation in bylaws and existing practices that were identified politics, as well as financial responsibility and by the ODIHR in their final reports following the decision-making within political parties. She 2010, 2014 and 2018 general elections have put added that Bosnia’s political system suffers from the elections at risk of irregularities and “patronage, conflict of interest and corruption manipulation. This does not necessarily put the which rarely anyone is held responsible for.” overall credibility of the election, but recurring Kavalec welcomed the recent adoption of the state irregularities may affect the outcome in cases budget by the Presidency, expressing hope that where the winning margin is negligible, she said. the Parliament will soon adopt it as well, arguing Kavalec pointed out that citizens’ trust in that this will enable the country to secure a budget democratic institutions depends on the real and for the local elections, which are to take place in perceived integrity of the electoral process. November 2020. She noted that some political “Without that, the long-term stability of leaders have, prior to the adoption of the budget, democratic institutions in Bosnia and argued that the financing of the election should Herzegovina cannot be guaranteed,” she said, not be secured before, as they argued, the illegal arguing that this is especially important for and illegitimate structure of the Central Election Bosnia because disinterest among citizens Commission (CEC) is revised. She pointed out continues; the political process will increasingly that the process of appointing new CEC members be jeopardized by patronage and nepotism. While has shaken relations within the ruling coalition political parties have already done a lot regarding but that it is an issue that the Court should decide this issue, a lot more needs to be done, including on and that, unless it decides otherwise, all the implementation of ODIHR recommendations, appointed CEC members are full members of the as well as the GRECO recommendations of the Commission. Political parties have a right to Council of Europe regarding the financing of express their opinion on the work of institutions political parties, she said. “This is possible with and propose their preferred candidates to top committed political leadership. The recent positions and they may submit complaints agreement on the elections in Mostar is proof that regarding the activities of other political parties this is feasible,” she said. (www.ba.n1info.com) within those institutions, she said. “But there should also be a clear boundary - the functioning COUNTRY ASSESSMENT :

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Latest agreements on 2020 state’s budget and state guarantees on new debt. Revision raised that local elections in Mostar have created an figure by 310 million leva, or about 158.5 million encouraging atmosphere for Bosnian politics. euro, to 1.81 billion leva. The new state However, implementation of the agreements is a guarantees will allow Bulgaria to participate in long story. This is how the country’s political two EU schemes meant to decrease the system works and more specifically its decision- pandemic’s economic impact – the temporary making system. The problematic institutional support to mitigate unemployment risks in an framework of the Dayton Accord is the main emergency and the pan-European guarantee fund. reason for these long time decisions which affects Opposition parties in Parliament backed the state’s political and economic stability. Local Budget revision, which was voted without any elections are scheduled for November 15th, 2020. debate. (www.sofiaglobe.com) Political instability, poor economic performances, - June 26th, the European Commission confirmed entities’ rivalries, and problematic framework of that a new notification on the part of Bulgaria is state’s structure (due to Dayton Accord) have left needed if it wants to resume the construction of Bosnia far behind other Western Balkan countries Belene nuclear power plant. Motives are the towards the EU. Furthermore, nationalistic changes to the project, the development of safety rhetoric and actions from the three entities standards and the amendment of the legal creates certain conditions of mutual mistrust and framework of the Euratom treaty which has work as a factor of potential destabilization. changed considerably and has been enhanced Muslim countries such as Turkey, Saudi Arabia, since 2007 when the Commission issued a Qatar, and Iran maintain a permanent presence favorable opinion for the construction of the through financial donations and investments. nuclear power plant. EC Spokesperson Tim Lately, Turkey seeks to be engaged deeper in McPhie stated that if Bulgaria were to decide to Bosnia’s Armed Forces training and resume the Belene project it must guarantee that it modernization. Migration issue turns to become a is in compliance with the Euratom treaty. problem of social turbulence for the regions (www.novinite.com) which hosts reception structures for migrants.

- June 27th, Tsvetan Tsvetanov, the former BULGARIA: June 26th, Bulgaria’s parliamentary leader of Bulgarian Prime Minister National Assembly passed at first and second Boiko Borissov’s Citizens for European reading a revision of the 2020 Budget Act, the Development of Bulgaria (Grazhdani za second time in three months that this year’s Evropeisko Razvitie Balgariya – GERB) party Budget had to be updated due to the economic and who was Interior Minister in the first of impact of the COVID-19 pandemic. Unlike the Borissov’s three Governments, confirmed in a first revision in April, which sharply raised the television interview that he intended founding his annual borrowing limit and set a Budget deficit own political party in September. target, the second change has been described as Tsvetanov resigned from all leadership posts in technical and updated only the size of maximum GERB in May 2019 after an earlier announcement by the anti-corruption commission that he was

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being investigated in connection with an alleged projects. Modernization of Armed Forces is a top cut-price apartment deal. A subsequent priority for Bulgaria and huge armament projects investigation cleared him. In September 2019, he are ongoing (fighter jets, armored vehicles, founded the Euro-Atlantic Security Center, an vessels etc). However, military operational NGO working on key issues in the security sector. capability of the state is questioned especially in Earlier in June 2020, Tsvetanov resigned his the Air Force. Bulgarian Armed Forces are far membership of GERB. Speaking in an interview from NATO standards. with bTV, Tsvetanov said that the new party, possible names of which are still being discussed, CROATIA: June 24th, Prime Minister would participate in Bulgaria’s parliamentary Andrej Plenkovic reiterated on Wednesday that elections scheduled to be held in 2021. Tsvetanov postponing the parliamentary election was not an said that he had decided to go ahead with option even if the coronavirus situation founding his own political party after getting huge deteriorated stressing that Croatia was in a better backing from his supporters for his decision to situation that other countries facing elections. leave Borissov’s party. Tsvetanov said that during “Our Government defeated COVID-19 in the first his meetings with people from the party who had wave. If you look at the figures, we are among the supported GERB since 2006, he had the top three EU countries with the lowest number of impression they no longer trusted the party. new cases and the lowest number of active cases,” “There is inconsistency and chaos in the Plenkovic said while responding to questions Government,” he said. Legislative changes were from the press during a visit to the northern city being made that were not fit for purpose, such as of Cakovec. By way of illustration, he cited the idea to set up a state fuel company. France which is holding a second round of local Implementing such a project would set Bulgaria elections while recording over 500 new cases back 20 years because of the lack of market daily. Asked if it was not hypocritical of the principles, he said. (www.sofiaglobe.com) Government to call on the public to be COUNTRY ASSESSMENT : responsible while he himself refused to self- isolate after meeting the infected Serbian tennis Bulgaria enjoys political stability. Increased player Novak Djokovic, Plenkovic said he had COVID-19 cases are a factor of concern but explained their contact on Tuesday. “If our situation looks like being under control so far. contact had been such to qualify as close contact, Migration poses a national security threat but I certainly would have followed the currently situation is under control since migrant recommendations from epidemiologists rather and refugee flows coming from Turkey are not than those from quack doctors from the increased. Nevertheless, situation is closely opposition who have a political interest to raise monitored by Bulgarian authorities. Corruption such issues. That is a big difference,” he said. and organized crime remain significant obstacles Plenkovic said that he was willing to do another for the country’s development and should be test if necessary but that he did not see any need addressed decisively. The country pays special for it. He said he believed this would not harm his attention to energy security developing several

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Croatian Democratic Union’s (Hrvatska the devastating March earthquake. Demokratska Zajednica – HDZ) party in the (www.hr.n1info.com) forthcoming election because “people are serious - June 28th, although over 2,000 people in Croatia and they see well who is doing what.” Asked if are self-isolating, the Head of the national civil this situation was damaging to Croatia given that protection authority said on Saturday that all foreign media were also writing about his refusal voters would be enabled to vote in the July 5th, to self-isolate, the Prime Minister said that it was 2020 parliamentary election. “That is a query we not because “this information is not true.” He will forward to the State Electoral Commission, referred the press to statements from the Public which is in constant contact with the Croatian Health Institute rather than “copying statements Institute of Public Health, which will provide a by opposition politicians.” (www.hr.n1info.com) framework for how to organize the election and do everything so that it is a controlled situation,” th - June 27 , the World Bank Board of Directors Interior Minister Davor Bozinovic told Nova TV. on Friday approved two projects totaling 500 Commenting on the coronavirus hotspot in million US dollars to provide emergency support Djakovo, he said epidemiologists had responded to the Croatian authorities to cushion the effects promptly and that a certain number of people of the triple shock that hit the country earlier this were in self-isolation, but that there was no need year. The unprecedented crisis was caused by the for quarantine. He said the local civil protection health impacts of COVID-19; the economic crisis authority would consider some restrictions which caused by the pandemic lockdowns in Croatia and would not result in cancellations but the worldwide; and the extensive damage caused by postponement of some events. Bozinovic said the strongest earthquake in 140 years that hit the situation on the border crossings with Serbia and Zagreb area on March, 22, the World Bank Office Bosnia and Herzegovina was being monitored in Croatia said in a press release. The 300 million daily and that control had been stepped up until US dollars Crisis Response and Recovery June 30. He said the European Union had Development Policy Operation supports the recommended that borders with Southeast Government’s swift and targeted economic European countries be reopened as of July 1st, packages approved in March and April 2020 to 2020. “A balanced solution will be sought that is mitigate the economic and social impact of the in the interest of protecting the health of all COVID-19 crisis. It also addresses some of citizens and maintaining economic activity.” As Croatia’s longstanding institutional gaps and for the increase in the number of infected young builds the foundations of an inclusive and people in night clubs, Bozinovic said inspection sustainable recovery. The first set of measures teams would continue to visit the clubs, although supported by this operation will mitigate the the goal was not closures and layoffs but health impact of the pandemic on workers and protection. (www.hr.n1info.com) companies. The 200 million US dollars Earthquake Recovery and Public Health COUNTRY ASSESSMENT : Preparedness Emergency Recovery Project is the first big reconstruction loan for Zagreb following

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The new wave of COVID-19 pandemic raises has stepped down after more than seven years in concerns for the coming elections on July 5th, office. Petrides will replace Savvas Angelides 2020. The Ministry of Interior is working to who was appointed Deputy Attorney-General. secure participation of all voters in the process. Shipping expert Vasilis Demetrides will be taking The new Government will have hard work to the shipping portfolio. The date for new bring the country back to growth. Croatia is close Ministers’ confirmation ceremony will be to the Schengen Zone enjoying support in the EU. announced later. Unlike them, Savvides and Croatia – Slovenia border dispute remains active, Angelides are scheduled to take over on July 10th, but COVID-19 pandemic and pre-electoral period 2020 which could pose a problem as incumbent in Croatia have downsized current situation. Costas Clerides said he would retire on August Croatia seeks to maintain its influence in 1st, 2020. (www.cyprus-mail.com) neighboring Bosnia through the Croatian entity in - June 26th, President Nicos Anastasiades said a that country. Croatia implements a policy of solution through militarization to Turkey’s illegal Armed Forces’ modernization trying to form a activities in the region would be the end of reliable and well equipped force according to Cypriot Hellenism. Cyprus was seeking NATO standards. However, the current COVID- diplomatic routes to avoid crises, the President 19 pandemic may affect the ambitious said. In statements released ahead of an interview modernization plans due the economic for CyBC on July 1st, 2020 Anastasiades said “If repercussions in the country. Croatian Air Force we consider a solution through militarization, this is far from NATO standards and actually the will be the end of Cypriot Hellenism, which I do country lacks an operational air power. not want.” Commenting on issues in the southeastern Mediterranean and the visit of the th CYPRUS: June 24 , President Nicos EU High Representative for Foreign Affairs Josep Anastasiades on Wednesday appointed lawyer Borrell, Anastasiades said Cyprus has been using Emily Yiolitis as the new Justice Minister and the “weapons of diplomacy,” and the EU gave the energy portfolio to current Shipping official’s presence in Cyprus was confirmation of Deputy Minister Natasa Pilides. The how the European partners were working to avoid appointments mean there are now three women in a conflict in the area. On the Cyprus problem, he the cabinet including Labor Minister Zeta said there needed to be a “restoration of Emilianidou. Aglandjia Mayor Charalambos confidence.” He said this could happen, if the Petrides was appointed Defense Minister, while community with the smaller number did not try to shipping expert Vasilis Demetriades took the impose itself on the bigger number. He also said shipping portfolio. Yiolitis, who served briefly as Turkey was turning the north into a protectorate, Head of the board of state electricity company basing its actions on its status as a guarantor EAC before resigning due to conflict of interest, power. Ankara’s actions have been to the replaces Giorgos Savvides who was appointed detriment of the Turkish Cypriot community, he Attorney-General. Pilides is taking the important added. (www.cyprus-mail.com) energy post, replacing Giorgos Lakkotrypis who

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- June 28th, the proposal by EU High committee for cooperation on hydrocarbons Representative Josep Borrell to bring together between the two sides, pointing out that the Greek Turkey and the Greek Cypriots is far from Cypriot side sees the energy issue a separate one serious, the Turkish Foreign Ministry said in and refuses to talk about this matter with the response to statements by the top EU diplomat Turkish Cypriots. Aksoy also said that who was in Nicosia on an official visit this week. delimitation of maritime jurisdiction areas in the Borrell had called for cooperation between west of Cyprus will only be possible after the Cyprus and Turkey and welcomed Nicosia’s offer settlement of the Cyprus issue. “Turkey will never to Ankara to negotiate in good faith the maritime sit down with the Greek Cypriot Administration delimitation between their relevant coasts. He ever which has usurped the title of the Republic of stressed the importance of the two countries Cyprus and does not represent the Turkish improving their relations and avoid escalating Cypriots,” he said. Turkey does not recognize tensions in the region that could be very Cyprus as a state and has sent warship-escorted damaging for everyone. “The said proposal is far vessels to drill for gas in waters where the island from being serious,” Spokesman of Turkey’s nation has exclusive economic rights. Ankara Foreign Ministry, Hami Aksoy, said in response. claims nearly half of Cyprus’ Exclusive He added that this proposal was made by the same Economic Zone (EEZ) and says it is acting to EU “which always ignores the existence of the protect its rights and those of Turkish Cypriots in Turkish Cypriots and has never referred to their the island’s north. Borrell said this week the EU equal rights over the natural resources of the “is firmly supportive of the Republic of Cyprus island in any of its statements.” Aksoy reiterated and its sovereignty and sovereign rights.” While Turkey’s position that the interlocutor of the on his visit to the island, Borrell on Friday flew Turkish Cypriots on hydrocarbon resources is the over Cyprus’ EEZ in a helicopter with Defense Greek Cypriots until a comprehensive settlement Minister Savvas Angelides. (www.cyprus- on the Cyprus problem is reached. “Therefore, the mail.com) counterpart of the Foreign Minister of Greek Cypriot Administration is definitely not us, but the COUNTRY ASSESSMENT : Deputy Prime Minister and Foreign Minister of An almost “shocking” statement by the Cypriot the Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus, H.E. President Nicos Anastasiades that militarization Mr Kudret Ozersay,” he said. If a solution is of Cyprus is not the solution in current illegal desired in the eastern Mediterranean, Aksoy said, activities of Turkey and it would be the reason of as a first step, “The two peoples of the Island the “end of Cypriot Hellenism” reconsiders the should come together and establish a cooperation theory of international relations and the concept mechanism for the exploration and exploitation of of states’ power! While Turkey continues to the hydrocarbon resources, including revenue question Cyprus’ sovereign rights drilling in its sharing, as soon as possible.” He said that the Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ) waters and proposal by the Turkish Cypriot side submitted in seeking share of the island’s hydrocarbons (in the July 2019 provides the necessary ground to this name of the Tukish Cypriots), Cypriot end. The proposal concerns setting up a joint

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administration claims in the highest level that not allow it,” Greek Defense Minister Nikos military power is not necessary. But in fact this is Panagiotopoulos said on Monday. The Greek the main security problem of Cyprus. It cannot Defense Minister also called Ankara out for stop the Turkish activity so far, failing to protect claiming to have sought dialogue with Athens and its sovereign rights since it lacks adequate meeting with silence, saying that dialogue is military means (especially aeronautical forces) to impossible “when Greece’s sovereign rights are deter Turkey from continuing its activity. being directly challenged.” Speaking on Alpha Anastasiades statement is considered as a “false television on Monday night, Panagiotopoulos was assessment” which demonstrates a perception of responding to comments made over the weekend state’s politics captured by external powers on by Turkish Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu. permanent basis. Diplomacy is a pillar of power “Let them try,” Cavusoglu said in an interview but also military is another one. The balanced use with Germany’s Suddeutsche Zeitung on Sunday of these pillars provides security. It is not when asked what Turkey’s response would be to expected escalation of situation in the near future any efforts by Greece to prevent exploratory since energy companies have postponed their drilling for hydrocarbon deposits. “No one will scheduled drills within the Cypriot EEZ. Cypriot dare stop our drill ships… if they want an energy projects are questioned since the oil and escalation, we will respond.” The Turkish Foreign gas companies postponed their activities in the Minister also claimed that President Recep region claiming COVID-19 and low oil prices as Tayyip Erdogan had “wanted” dialogue with the the main reasons. In general, Cypriot energy Greek Government when it was elected last July, plans have “stuck” and Cypriot gas is far from but Athens has been “unwilling” to engage in exploitation yet. It is certain that Turkey will not talks. For the two sides to sit down together for accept “fait accompli” in a region considered as talks, Panagiotopoulos responded, “Turkey would part of its strategic interests. Besides, Turkey have to demonstrate a spirit of good neighborly maintains a significant military force on the relations and respect of international law.” island (Army Corps size) which poses a Turkey, he added, “is behaving like a regional permanent threat against the Cypriot republic. troublemaker, mischief-maker or bully, and this is Lately, the EU expresses increased support in no way to hold talks.” (www.ekathimerini.com) Cyprus frustrating the Turkish side. As long as - June 24th, Israel’s Embassy in Greece welcomed part of Cyprus remains under Turkish occupation on Wednesday a deal signed between Greece- and Turkish troops (equipped with heavy based ONEX Shipyards and Israel Shipyards to weapons) are deployed in the island, Cyprus faces build a navy ship for border surveillance in the an existing direct threat against its national Mediterranean Sea. “We believe that this security and sovereignty. agreement will be a milestone that will be followed by another project. We anticipate its rd GREECE: June 23 , “The presence implementation,” the Embassy said in social of Turkish drill ships in Greek waters is a media, adding the project will bring the two violation of our national sovereignty and we will countries “closer.” The Syros island-based

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shipyard made the announcement on the of strategic importance since it cancels the development of the “THEMISTOCLES” corvette Turkish – Libyan agreement on Economic in a press release on Tuesday. Exclusive Zones (EEZ) which puts Greek vital (www.ekathimerini.com) interests at stake. However, a potential agreement between Greece and Egypt could escalate tension - June 28th, Deputy Finance Minister Theodoros in East Mediterranean dramatically. Of course Skylakakis estimated that Greece’s GDP will there is always the possibility of a “hot” incident shrink by 5 – 8% in 2020 and, in any case, if Turkey tries to conduct hydrocarbon drills shrinkage will be contained below 10%. For 2021, within Greek Exclusive Economic Zone. Under Skylakakis estimated GDP growth similar to that current situation in Eastern Mediterranean and of 2019 (1.87%) or a little higher. The unexpected Aegean Sea, Greece is obliged to strengthen and recession brought on by the coronavirus modernize its Armed Forces operational pandemic, and the resulting drop in state revenue, capability. On the illegal migration field, Greece will delay, but not derail, Government plans for has achieved to shield its land and sea borders. tax and pension contribution cuts. “We will Finally, on political level the Government enjoys certainly be able to make these cuts in the period public support. Despite, the Prime Minister’s 2021 -2023, when we will start getting European rejection of the possibility of snap elections, this (emergency aid). But we will have a problem scenario could not be rejected for the coming fall. implementing cuts in 2021,” because of the drop However, the Prime Minister schedules a short in revenue, Skylakakis told TV station ANT1 Government’s reshuffle in the near future. Sunday. Speaking on the 2021 budget, Skylakakis said “we will certainly be able to reduce social rd security contributions, but what else we can do in KOSOVO: June 23 , Richard a difficult and uncertain budget since we cannot Grenell, the US President Donald Trump’s special yet predict recession with any precision, I cannot envoy for the Belgrade – Pristina dialogue on the say yet,” Skylakakis said. normalization of relations, said that Washington (www.ekathimerini.com) wanted the forthcoming meeting between Serbia’s and Kosovo’s Presidents at the White House COUNTRY ASSESSMENT : would focus on the economic issues, Nova.rs website reported. In an interview with the Greece is watching closely Turkish intensions for Newsmax TV, Grenell said the US got involved hydrocarbon drills in Greek Exclusive Economic in the process “because there is a long history of Zones (EEZ) and more specifically in the wider the so-called experts who were pushing (the talks) area of Kastellorizo island. The Greek into political problems neglecting the Government and military leadership make clear economies.” He added young people in Kosovo that the country will protect its sovereign rights and Serbia needed jobs and hope. “When I talked using all available means implying the use of about the problems of youths and business military force. In the external policy field, Greece communities in both Kosovo and Serbia, it was intensifies its talks with Egypt seeking to reach an clear they want economic development, new jobs agreement on mutual EEZ. Such an agreement is

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and hope,” Grenell said. He added that the written due to Thaci’s and Veseli’s continued economic issues should be focused on to creating attempts to obstruct and undermine the work of a “mini – Shenzen” zone like the Shenzen Special the Specialized Chambers, the Wednesday’s Economic Zone (SEZ) in China established in statement said. Later on Wednesday, the US 1980. Since then, SEZ has become a leading President Donald Trump's special envoy for the business, innovation and financial center in China negotiations Richard Grenell, who invited Thaci with 40 million employees. In the meantime, and Serbia’s President Aleksandar Vucic for a Kosovo’s President Hashim Thaci, Prime meeting at the “White House” on June 27th, 2020 Minister Avdulah Hoti discussed on Tuesday to discuss the resumption of the Belgarde - coordination in presenting Pristina’s views in the Pristina dialogue on the normalization of forthcoming meeting in Washington. “Thaci and relations, wrote in social media Thaci informed Hoti share a clear vision and full consent him he would not come. The Prosecutor’s regarding the presenting Kosovo at the White statement added that Thaci and Veseli, conducted House,” Thaci’s office said in a statement. a secret campaign to annul the law based on (www.rs.n1info.com) which the Specialized Chambers were formed as a Court, and obstructed the Court’s work in other - June 24th, the Special Prosecutors Office for ways. “With such acts, Thaci and Veseli showed Kosovo based in The Hague wrote the 10-point they saw their interests as more important than charges against President Hashim Thaci and the victims of their crimes, the rule of law and Kadri Veseli, former Parliament Speaker, and sent Kosovo’s entire population,” the statement said. it to the Specialized Chambers of Kosovo for Thaci cut short his trip to Washington for the June confirmation, N1 reported on Wednesday. The th 27 meeting and is coming back to Kosovo on two, and other individuals, are indicted of several Thursday. He decided not to go to the US after crimes against humanity, and war crimes, learning about the indictment, his office said in a including the killings, forcible displacement, statement. (www.rs.n1info.com) persecution and torture. They are suspected of criminal responsibility for some 100 murders. - June 26th, in meetings with the European “The victims of the accused include some 100 President Ursula von der Leyden and the EU people whose identity is known and among whom Enlargement Commissioner Oliver Verhaly, there are Kosovo Albanians, Serbs, Roma and of Kosovo's Prime Minister Avdulah Hoti said other nationalities, as well as political foes. The Pristina was “decisively committed to pro-western indictment resulted from long-lasting orientation,” and that EU should enable its investigations and reflected the Prosecutors' citizen's free movement, N1 reported on Friday. confidence in the ability to prove all accusations,” The meetings’ agenda included visa liberalization, the Prosecutors' Office said in a statement. The situation caused by the coronavirus pandemic, pre-trial Judge of the Specialized Chambers of Kosovo's Government measures for the economic Kosovo is currently looking into the indictment to recovery after it, the latest political events and the rule whether to confirm it. The Prosecutor thought new European reform. “visa liberalization it necessary to publish that the indictment was remains the most urgent issue that has to be

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solved with the EU. Without it, the credibility of the Public Services Agency, which have right to all processes involving the EU is jeopardized. participate in the new local polls due on Kosovo's Government and its civil society did a September 6th, 2020, for the position of Mayor of great job, and we hope that the EU will the Tarnova village, northern Donduseni district appreciate those achievements,” Hoti said. and Nucareni village, central Telenesti village. (www.rs.n1info.com) Under the article 46, paragraph 2, letter a) of the Electoral Code, only the political formations COUNTRY ASSESSMENT : registered by the Public Services Agency till the establishing of the elections date have right to Developments in Kosovo are rapid and restart of nominate candidates for a ballot. Thus, CEC talks between Belgrade and Pristina are in presented a list of 47 political formations which question after indictment of Kosovo President, can put forward their candidates for the office of Hashim Thaci and former Parliament Speaker, Mayor in the aforementioned two settlements Kadri Veseli for war crimes by the Special from the Donduseni and Telenesti districts. Prosecutors Office for Kosovo. It was a surprise (www.moldpres.md) move by the prosecution which undermined dialogue before even start. Of course the timing of - June 25th, after a short exchange of opinions the indictment (just before the start of Kosovo – with President of Russia Vladimir Putin on the Serbia talks) is a question. It is assessed that the dynamic of the Moldovan - Russian bilateral timing is related with the US politics and the relations, President Igor Dodon continued Trump administration; Talks between the Serbian discussing more in detail current problems with President Aleksandar Vucic and his Kosovo the Deputy Head of the presidential counterpart, Thaci including a potential administration, Special Representatives of the agreement would be a major success of American Russian President for the development of the diplomacy and some “US political circles” would commercial and economic ties with Moldova not see that option positively. Under these Dmitry Kozak, the presidential press service has circumstances Thaci is out of talks and the Prime reported. After dialogue on the most important Minister, Avdullah Hoti will lead the Kosovo subjects on bilateral agenda, officials reached the negotiation team. Fight against corruption, following agreements: 1. Moldova and Russia organized crime, money laundering and will resume negotiations on the providing of the trafficking, establishment of rule of law, loan worth 200 million euro for backing the accountable and transparent state institutions, Moldovan economy. On the next days, the and functional public administration are the main Governments of the two countries will agree on challenges for Kosovo towards its European path. procedures due to be undertaken to this end. 2. At a request by the Moldovan President, Russia accepted to extend the facilities for the free tax MOLDOVA: June 23rd, the Central deliveries of Moldovan goods. This means that, Electoral Commission (CEC), at a today’s starting from July 1st, 2020, the fruits, vegetables, meeting, made public the list of parties and other canned goods and wine products from Moldova social and political organizations, registered by

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will be supplied to the Russian market without investigations and prosecutions, increasing access customs duties, which will allow Moldovan to placement and rehabilitation services for producers saving at least 20 - 25 million lei per victims of child trafficking; rethinking the year. 3. The sides agreed on solving the problem mechanism for carrying out on-the-job of issuance of authorizations (permits) for the inspections, especially unannounced ones. transit of goods from Moldova to Russia, through (www.moldpres.md) Ukraine. 4. At a request by the President of Moldova, Russia will analyze the possibility to COUNTRY ASSESSMENT : provide humanitarian assistance in diesel fuel for Moldova enjoys fragile political stability. the agricultural enterprises hit by the Presidential elections announced for November unprecedented drought from this year. Also, the 1st, 2020. The President, Igor Dodon is the head of state discussed with the Russian side absolute dominant of state’s politics and any more issues dealing with the confidence-building further political development should have his measures, as well as other aspects on the approval. Moldova has become a field of the advancement of the Transnistrian conflict ongoing rivalry between the West (namely the EU settlement. (www.moldpres.md) and NATO) and Russia for influence. The country - June 26th, the US State Department Report on is considered by the US and EU of great strategic Trafficking in People for 2020 was published on importance being in the soft underbelly of Russia. June 25th, 2020. It reflects the states’ efforts to On the other hand, Moldova is considered by prevent and combat human trafficking in 2019, Russia as an important region for its national the Government’s communication and protocol security belonging by principle to its sphere of department has reported. According to the Report, influence. Russia maintains troops in Transnistria the Government has shown a growing effort in which are considered by pro-western forces as this area compared to the previous period. Thus, violating Moldovan sovereignty. The frozen Moldova remained at the Tier 2* level in the conflict of Transnistria is always a “running ranking established by the US Department of sore” for the country working as a potential State. The report includes a number of factor of destabilization. Corruption, lack of recommendations for state authorities in the fight transparency and accountability reign in public against trafficking in human beings, in particular administration and state’s politics. the implementation of measures to combat corruption in the judiciary, the protection of MONTENEGRO: June 23rd, as the investigating officers and prosecutors from European Commission decided to approve the external influence and internal corruption; pro- opening of the last negotiating chapter with active identification of victims of trafficking in Montenegro, Prime Minister, Dusko Markovic, human beings, including undocumented migrants, noted that this day is a great day for Montenegro, and referral to assistance services; strengthening which has confirmed that it is the most promising the capacity of law enforcement agencies for a and closest to EU membership. “We are very victim-centered approach in criminal pleased to receive the news that the competent

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EC’s body has given the green light to open the is the most reasonable borrowing, the salvation last chapter 8 – Competition – in negotiations for our citizens,” Nimanbegu pointed out. His with the EU. We expect this to be formally counterpart, Ervin Ibrahimovic, said that the third confirmed tomorrow. This is a great day for package of assistance for the economy should be Montenegro, which will thus become the first adopted as soon as possible. Democratic Party of candidate country to open all negotiation Socialists of Montenegro (Demokratska Partija chapters,” the Prime Minister said. It is also a Socijalista Crne Gore - DPS) member, Žana great recognition to the Government and all the Filipovic, pointed out that the focus of the third bodies for their hard work on the adoption and package would be on helping local self- application of European standards and governments, providing subsidies to the salaries harmonization with European regulations. “At the of micro, small and medium enterprises as well as same time, it is a response to all those who tried assisting banking sector and creating conditions to question the democratic and reform capacities for financing economy and development projects. of Montenegro.” He recalled that our country has Member of Social Democrats (Socijaldemokrate - come a long and difficult way since the beginning SD), Boris Mugosa, said that the key component of negotiations, having in mind the fact that a new of the third package should be strengthening the approach focused on progress in Chapters 23 and real estate sector, domestic production and 24 was applied to us for the first time, as well as reduction of import. Revision of the budget certain challenges that followed the internal envisages a 40% decline in tourism. “The 40% consolidation in the EU. (www.cdm.me) decline seems to be too optimistic at the moment, but projections were made by the most renowned - June 24th, yesterday, the Parliament adopted people from IMF and WB,” Radunovic said. budget revision and decision on borrowing. Democratic Front (Demokratski Front – DF) President of the Parliament, Ivan Brajovic, asked member, Milutin Djukanovic, believes that fall in the MPs to vote due to the urgency of revenues in tourism will be higher than 70%. Government’s negotiations with the International Nedjeljko Rudovic, from Socialist People’s Party Monetary Fund (IMF). Minister of Finance, of Montenegro (Socijalistička Narodna Partija Darko Radunovic, pointed out that reasons for Crne Gore - SNP) – Democratic Alliance revision could be found in the creation of (Demokratski Savez - DEMOS), claims that the necessary legal conditions for additional decline in the most important branch of our borrowing. According to him, 877.5 million euro economy will exceed 40%. DPS member, Filip will be missing this year, the fact which prompted Vukovic, said that IMF and WB were not the Government to negotiate with partner and commercial but political banks and that they financial institutions. “We expect to provide “cannot be very incorrect in their assessments.” around 500 million euro to cover the missing President of the Committee on Economy and DPS funds in the current year,” Radunovic said. Vice- member, Predrag Sekulic, said that every crisis president of the Parliament, Genci Nimanbegu, was a development chance. “We have focused said that the country should count on the support more on agriculture as development resource. from the EU and international community. “This Right now, share of agriculture in total GDP is

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10%,” Sekulic said. Social Democratic Party leadership led by the ruling Democratic Party of (Socijaldemokratska Partija Crne Gore - SDP) Socialists of Montenegro (Demokratska Partija member, Rasko Konjevic, said that deep crisis Socijalista Crne Gore - DPS) ousted the was ahead of us. DF member, Branka Bosnjak, opposition authorities’ leaders on June 11th, 2020 also thinks that revision of the budget is just a after one of an opposition Councilor switched pre-election projection and that source revenues sides and joined DPS. The Democratic cannot cover all the running costs and transfers. Montenegro (Demokratska Crna Gora - DCG) Member of the SNP, Srdan Milic, said that he and Democratic Front (Demokratski Front – DF) “does not predict a cent over the collection of tax Councilors, who make up the opposition receivables.” (www.cdm.me) coalition, claim that was a case of corruption. (www.rs.n1info.com) - June 25th, the Montenegrin Police said on Thursday they arrested 41 people for “provoking COUNTRY ASSESSMENT : incidents in several towns,” and filed criminal charges against 54 people, the FoNet news agency Montenegro maintains its internal turmoil amid reported. The Police statement said people protests, violence and political abnormality. gathered in seven cities and towns without Despite positive signals for the country’s permission and provoked incidents. The latest European perspective, the country lacks political arrests and criminal charges came after days of calmness and suffers from long corruption, clashes between the opposition and ruling organized crime, poor public administration officials and supporters in the opposition-held transparency and accountability, and problematic coastal town of Budva. They also followed justice function. Despite all problems, Djukanovic months of the Serbian Orthodox Church (SPC) rule achieved to bring the country into the NATO organized protests against Montenegro’s Law on Alliance and very close to the EU membership. th Religious Freedom which SPC and people from Elections of August 30 , 2020 will be a strong the tiny Adriatic republic who considered democratic “stress test” and it is assessed that themselves of a Serb origin saw as the state the country needs fair and free elections to re- attempt to confiscate their Church properties. In establish political stability. Tension with Serbia the meantime, the President, Milo Djukanovic remains in high level. Actually it has been accused SPC of wanting to rule Montenegro and transformed into a field of the long rivalry push the country back into a theocratic state from between the US – NATO and Russia. It should be the Middle Age. Earlier on Thursday, Budva noted that the country has a significant number of Town’s Hall was closed to everyone except for Serbs, while there is notable sympathy among special investigators who were collecting Montenegrin people for Serbs. Montenegro needs documents following the incidents and unrest more concrete reforms in the field of justice, rule during the taking-over of local power. In of law, fight against corruption, money Wednesday’s clashes, 17 people were detained, laundering, and organized crime, public and a Police Officer was injured. The Police used administration transparency and accountability in teargas to disperse protesters. New Budva local order to become a stable and attractive

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investment environment. The country focuses on opposition finally reached an agreement for the strengthening its Armed Forces by purchasing election to be held on July 15th, 2020. According modern equipment. to the State Election Commission (SEC), 15 coalitions and parties with 1,598 candidates will take part in the election. The election campaign NORTH MACEDONIA: June will be launched on Wednesday – June 24th, 2020. 22nd, the 8-day state of emergency declared by Heads of the MP candidates signed the Code for President Stevo Pendarovski to ensure continual fair and democratic election and stressed their preparations for the July 15th, 2020 elections commitment to abide by COVID-19 protective expires on Monday. The last, fifth in a row, state measures to ensure public health safety. In line of emergency was declared on June 15th, 2020 with SEC revised timetable, election silence after leader of the ruling Democratic Union of begins at midnight on July 12th, 2020 and the Macedonia (Socijaldemokratski Sojuz na election campaign ends. According to the Makedonija – SDSM) Zoran Zaev and leader of timetable, COVID-19 patients, people in isolation the opposition Internal Macedonian and self-isolation will vote on July 13th, 2020 Revolutionary Organization – Democratic Party while the homebound, infirm and aged on July for Macedonian National Unity (Внатрешна 14th, 2020. July 15th, 2020 is Election Day, македонска револуционерна организација – starting at 7 am and ending at 9 pm. Демократска партија за македонско (www.republika.mk) национално единство - VMRO-DPMNE) Hristijan Mickoski reached an agreement to hold - June 22nd, OSCE/ODIHR observers started th the early parliamentary elections on July 15 , Monday their work and met with members of the 2020. President Pendarovski said the decision to State Election Commission, at which they were declare a state of emergency was made towards briefed on the course of the electoral process. ensuring continual preparations for the elections, Upon the Government’s invitation, especially the enforcement of measures for OSCE/ODIHR has sent a Special Election protection of public health during the electoral Assessment Mission (SEAM) for the July 15th, process, in time of a COVID-19 pandemic. The 8- 2020 early parliamentary elections. The SEAM is day state of emergency was to be used solely for made up of a team of seven experts, who will be the required election-related decisions and based in Skopje and follow all aspects of the protocols, with a focus on the measures protecting electoral process from there. The team includes a public health. The early parliamentary election head of mission, deputy head of mission, political th was initially to be held on April 12 , 2020 but analyst, election analyst, voter registration due to the coronavirus crisis and the first state of analyst, legal analyst and media analyst. ODIHR emergency declared in March, election-related Spokesperson Katya Andrusz told MIA last week activities were suspended by a Government that the mission will carefully assess how far the decree. Following several weeks of failed talks, election is held in line with OSCE commitments consultations, as well as leaders’ meetings hosted and other international standards for democratic by the President, the ruling party and the elections, as well as with national legislation. “We

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were forced to suspend our election observation them. According to the Council’s agenda, they are mission to the early parliamentary elections in not expected to be on the agenda this summer, as North Macedonia due to the travel restrictions the EU budget is to be intensively discussed in the and health concerns that followed the outbreak of coming weeks. (www.republika.mk) the COVID-19 pandemic. The health of our colleagues is always a priority. The safety COUNTRY ASSESSMENT : considerations as well as continuing restrictions Pre-electoral campaign has started in North on international travel and limitations on entry to Macedonia without tension and incidents. OSCE the countries holding elections are creating monitors arrived in Skopje aiming to observe the challenges for all our election-related activities whole process. Elections will be held on July 15th, and particularly for the deployment of long- and 2020. Although the country has a caretaker short-term observers, who are sent directly by Government situation is not stable since the OSCE countries,” noted Andrusz. As always in Parliament has been dissolved and there is no the countries in which ODIHR observes, we will elected Government to handle major state’s cooperate with the authorities throughout the issues. It is estimated that elections could take election process, Andrusz added. place on July but parties are still on (www.republika.mk) consultations. The country should focus on - June 25th, the European Commission (EC) is still reforms regarding justice, rule of law, fight “finalizing” the negotiating frameworks for North against corruption and money laundering, public Macedonia and Albania. European Commissioner administration, and respect of human rights in for Neighborhood and Enlargement Oliver order to accelerate its European integration Varhelyi stated several times that the negotiating process. frameworks will be presented in June, MIA’s Brussels correspondent reported on Thursday. EC ROMANIA: June 23rd, Alliance of Spokesperson Ana Pisonero told today’s press Liberals and Democrats (Alianța Liberalilor și briefing that “the European Commission is still Democraților - ALDE) Chairman Calin Popescu- working on the texts of the drafts of the Tariceanu believes that the European Parliament negotiating frameworks.” “We are currently (EP), the European Commission (EC) and the finalizing the documents. I cannot give you a date Venice Commission need to be notified about the when they when they will be presented. It is clear “repeated attacks” to the fundamental institutions that our aim is to be able to do it as soon as of justice and parliamentary democracy, like, possible,” Pisonero said. Negotiating frameworks among others, the Ombudsman and the have been announced by the European Constitutional Court of Romania. “Democracy Commission since the beginning of June. The EC only with approval from the Victoria Palace informed that the negotiating frameworks will not [Government Palace – editor’s note]! Because be available to the public, only a statement will be the Ombudsman refuses to become the Orban issued. These draft texts will need to be presented Government’s lawyer, she is asked to resign! to the Council of the EU and later on to adopt Because the Judges of the Constitutional Court

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refused to become Mr Prime Minister Orban’s interests Mrs Renate Weber is facing right now, servants, they are attacked with bayonets! In as she is supposed to serve the state and the general, everything that is not to Ludovic Orban’s people while she acts against the state and the liking must be dismissed and changed! This people. Basically, when she attacked the disease of power that Ludovic Orban became Constitutional Court of Romania, Mrs Renate infected with is very dangerous! It is dangerous Weber was basically protecting her own special because it hurts the fundamental principles of pension as Ombudsman, and the second count democracy, in institutions that, like it or not, serve refers to the fact that she exceeded her the public interest and not a party one!,” attributions by establishing that torture Tariceanu wrote on social media. According to mechanism against the COVID hospitals, and we Tariceanu, “repeated attacks on justice, detailed on the two aspects. The request has a Parliament, the rights and freedoms of the citizen clear legal nature as well,” Florin Roman stated, constitute serious threats to democracy and the before the meeting of the Executive Bureau of the rule of law.” “You know I am not a fan of PNL, which takes place at the headquarters of the complaints to the High Court, because I think we party. He showed that the discussions with the have done too much harm by washing our clothes MPs to back this action have already started. in public, but this offensive to democracy must be Liberals claim Weber violated article 72 of the signaled to all who have eyes to see and ears to Constitution, regarding the conflict of interests. hear. I believe that the European Parliament and “We ask you to notify the legal committees of the the European Commission, as well as the Venice Deputies’ Chamber and the Senate to hear Mrs Commission, must be notified, and repeated Renate Weber, the Ombudsman, and to make a attacks on the judiciary, the fundamental report by which to propose the joint sitting of the institutions of justice and parliamentary Deputies’ Chamber and the Senate her removal democracy must be sanctioned in any way from the said public office,” show the Liberals. possible. It is clear that the masters of these (www.nineoclock.ro) people from PNL (National Liberal Party) are not - June 25th, the Constitutional Court of Romania from this country but from outside of it!” said (CCR) has ruled on Thursday that there is no need Tariceanu. The Liberals submitted, on Monday, to for the Parliament’s green light to enforce or Parliament, the request for the removal from extend the state of alert. On the other hand, the Ombudsman office of Renate Weber. “We have constitutional Judges established that isolation or initiated the procedure today to remove the quarantine measures cannot be taken by Ombudsman, Mrs Renate Weber. The first step of Minister’s order. The Ombudsman has referred this procedure is to submit the removal request the articles in the law on the state of alert to the signed by the leader of the PNL group in the Constitutional Court in early June, arguing that Senate and the undersigned, in my capacity as the fines and offenses imposed for breaking the leader of the Liberals in the Deputies Chamber. law are not legal. The Ombudsman has also The removal request has been submitted today challenged the article through the Parliament is with the Standing Bureau, and it has two counts, giving its go-ahead for the state of alert imposed in principle. The first one refers to the conflict of

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through Government resolution. Ombudsman spread of the new coronavirus would diminish Renate Weber claims that, by the Parliament’s and local elections could be held. “Our goal is to approving a Government resolution, the principle reduce the spread. (…) At the current level of of separation of powers is violated. She also spread, certainly yes [the elections will be held on considers that “by introducing a new form of the set date]. But I am convinced that by parliamentary control over the Government’s September 27th things will improve significantly,” actions,” the Parliament “has converted the he said. The Permanent Electoral Authority has traditional legal nature of administrative drafted the bill setting the date for the 2020 local legislative act of the Government resolution into a elections, as well as measures for their proper political document” that is exclusively targeting organization and conduct that says local elections the constitutional relation between Parliament will be held on September 27th, 2020. Orban said and Government.” Few days ago, the Liberal on Thursday evening that there will be an election Party filed a request to dismiss Ombudsman campaign for local elections without public Renate Weber, accusing her of exceeding her gatherings, without electoral rallies, in legal powers. (www.nineoclock.ro) compliance with COVID-19 protection measures. “Today, we have adopted a bill at the Government th - June 26 , on Thursday, the Government th meeting proposing September 27 as the election approved a bill setting the date of the local date (…). It is true that it will not be possible to elections on September 27th, 2020. “The bill organize public meetings, election rallies; if establishing the date of the 2020 elections to the canvassing is done door to door, the candidates local public administrations, namely September will have to wear a mask; for the wearing of a 27th, 2020 has been adopted,” Ionel Danca, Head mask in enclosed spaces a more intense media of the Chancellery of the Prime Minister, said campaign will be conducted online, because now, Thursday after a meeting of the Government. the internet is clearly a safe means of Prime Minister Ludovic Orban said last Saturday communication. Candidates and voters must also in Suceava that at this week’s meeting, the adapt,” Orban told Digi24 private broadcaster. Government will adopt a bill proposing that the Orban added that the observance of the COVID- local elections be held on September 27th, 2020. 19 protection measures will be taken into account “Our proposal for the election date will be for the organization of the polling stations. “When September 27th. After the promulgation of the law organizing the polling stations you obviously have for the extension of the terms in office [of local to take some measures related to the maximum elected officials] adopted by Parliament, at next number of people to enter, queues at a certain week’s government meeting, we will adopt the bill distance, disinfectants, protective masks, all the proposing September 27th as the elections date, rules must be followed,” he said. The Prime and, obviously, a series of other measures, some Minister also said that the general election could of which are also related to the protection of the th take place on December 6 , 2020. “In our people involved in the electoral process,” said opinion, December 6th is due time for the general Orban, according to Agerpres. He voiced his election, its constitutional term. It is the date we conviction that by September 27th, 2020 the have suggested. I am waiting for the views of

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other political parties on the date,” Orban said. group Alliance for Serbia (Savez za Srbiju - SzS), (www.nineoclock.ro) who accused the leader of burgeoning authoritarianism. Vucic did not run for office COUNTRY ASSESSMENT : himself but solely led the SNS campaign under “Aleksandar Vucic – for Our Children” slogan. Political disputes continue in Romania but The campaign had two parts – before the state situation is rather stable. Local elections emergency due to the coronavirus epidemic and announced for September 27th, 2020, while the after it was lifted. “I am grateful to the people for Government announced that December 6th, 2020 this historical support,” Vucic, the 50-year-old could be a convenient date for general elections. who had been in power since 2012, said at the Opposition claims that the Government violates SNS headquarters during the celebration with democratic rules of the country seeking to address blasted brass music. “We won everywhere,” Vucic European institutions for current situation. said. “We won in the places where we had never Romania enjoys advanced upgrade in US and won before,” he added. Coupled with the NATO strategic plans due to its geographical opposition stay-at-home campaign and lingering position located close to Russia. Romania keeps concerns about the coronavirus, turnout was lower strengthening its Armed Forces seeking to than usual—but not dramatically—at slightly achieve NATO standards. under 50% according to the independent election monitor CRTA. The boycotting opposition SERBIA: June 22nd, the ruling Serbian slammed the “fake elections” and claimed their Progressive Party (Srpska Napredna Stranka - movement was victorious. However, SNS won a SNS) is likely to have 189 Deputies in the 250- majority in the local assembly in the central seat country’s Parliament, after winning over 63% Paracin municipality so far being one of a few of votes, and will be joined by two other parties districts held by the opposition. The results for and those of the minorities, N1 reported. Besides Sabac in western Serbia, the only town where SNS, its current key coalition partner, the SNS lost elections four years ago, are still being Socialist Party of Serbia (Socijalistička Partija counted, but Vucic’s party declared victory. It Srbije - SPS), and the first-time runner in the failed to take over the municipality of Serbia’s general election, the Serbian Patriotic western municipality of Cajetina, where the Alliance (Srpski Patriotski Savez – SPAS) passed opposition coalition won 61% of those who voted the 3% threshold, reduced from 5% amid the at local elections. According to the preliminary opposition boycott campaign. Several minority results, 18 parties, including the ultra-nationalist parties will also have Deputies based on the Serbian Radical Party (Srpska Radikalna Stranka natural threshold. The official results will be - SRS), led by convicted war criminal Vojislav published by Wednesday. Still, the SNS leader Seselj, considered Vucic’s political father, did not and country’s President Aleksandar Vucic cross the 3% threshold for the national declared a landslide victory in the Sunday’s Parliament. Balkans analyst Florian Bieber wrote parliamentary, provincial and local elections on social media that on without a meaningful tarnished by a boycott from the leading opposition opposition, the “pyrrhic victory” could ultimately

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discredit SNS as it would be viewed as “less - June 26th, Aleksandar Vucic, Serbia’s President, legitimate than ever before.” He said that SNS told reporters in Brussels he believed Belgrade exceeded results of the Russian President would close all negotiating chapters in the Vladimir Putin’s United Russia party. accession talks with the EU by 2024, and that the Parliamentary seats according to CeSID: ruling country might become a bloc’s full member two coalition 221, opposition (kinda) 12, minorities 17 years later, N1 Reported. After an hour-long MPs. Serbia’s watchdogs say Vucic’s power lies meeting with the European Commission President in his manipulation of the media, with the Ursula von der Leyen, Vucic said that before the majority of outlets, including TV channels with Belgrade – Pristina dialogue on the normalization national frequency and tabloids, effectively of relations could resume, the Western Balkans serving as SNS mouthpiece. However, besides leader should meet the EU officials in Paris. That close ties with Moscow and Beijing, Vucic has event has been announced, but no details have backing from the West, seen as capable of been revealed. Vucic said talks with Von der resolving Serbia’s decades-long territorial dispute Leyen included Serbia’s Euro-integration, with the former province of Kosovo which dialogue with Pristina and a package of economic declared independence from Serbia in 2008. After aid. Later on Friday, sources in Brussels cementing his power in Sunday’s elections, Vucic confirmed to N1 that Chapter 2 on “Free will face pressure to make progress on talks with movement of workers” within the accession talks Pristina on the normalization of relations that between the EU and Serbia would not be opened have been on hold since November 2018. His as expected. Vucic also met with the EU already busy schedule includes talks with the Enlargement Commissioner Oliver Varhelyi, the EU’s envoy for Serbia and Kosovo Miroslav EU Special Envoy for the Belgrade – Pristina Lajcak on Monday, visit Moscow and meet dialogue Miroslav Lajcak and would have talks Kosovo representatives at the White House on with the Charles Michel, the President of the June 27th, 2020. Vucic has never disclosed his European Council. Vucic did not want to plan for Kosovo solution since it is a sensitive explicitly comment on the situation following the issue for the Serbs but vowed Belgrade would Specialised Prosecutor for Kosovo announced never accept to recognize Pristina’s independence indictments against Pristina’s officials, including despite great pressure from the leading players in his Kosovo counterpart Hashim Thaci, who was the international community. He reiterated that his main partner in negotiating the “Serbia cannot lose everything, while Kosovo normalization of Belgrade - Pristina relations for wins everything.” However, many see his latest years. However, he later said the indictments were statement – ‘the EU membership is not enough a problem for the Serbs in Kosovo. “This is a for Serbia’s support of Kosovo’s UN seat as certain security risk for all Serbs in Kosovo and preparation of the public at home for at least does not exclude problems in Serbia’s two agreeing to that without official recognition and southern districts (with an ethnic Albanian any diplomatic ties with Kosovo. majority),” he claimed. (www.rs.n1info.com) (www.rs.n1info.com)

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- June 27th, the Kosovo talks should resume activity. In other words, political stability and despite the war crime indictment against Kosovo strengthen of democratic rule did not achieve in President Hashim Thaci, President of Serbia these elections. These situation of democratic Aleksandar Vucic told Brussels-based media. deficit may affect Serbia’s European integration, Speaking to Politico news website, Vucic said he despite the President, Aleksandar Vucic’s was willing to meet Thaci if Kosovo leaders optimism that Serbia could join the EU by 2026. decided he would be part of the Kosovo No new chapters will open in the near future for delegation in future talks. However, Vucic said he Serbia which indicates a stagnation of the doubted this would happen. Serbian President process. Besides, Serbia has to normalize its rejected to comment on the indictment during the relations with Kosovo before joining the EU. Brussels meetings with the EU officials but that Vucic declared publically that he seeks he wished the EU-mediated talks would continue. resumption of talks between Belgrade and “We do not want to ignite further political or Pristina, but the latest indictments of Kosovo physical clashes between Serbs and Albanians President, Hashim Thaci and former Parliament and also it is the best way to protect the safety Speaker, Kadri Veseli blocked the whole process. and security of the Serbs living in Kosovo,” he Vucic avoided commenting the indictment of told the website. “We need to resume our Thaci which is assessed as an effort to facilitate dialogue process with whomever the Albanian the dialogue process. Besides, Thaci and Vucic side will pick as their representative” he said, are considered by the EU and US administration adding that dialogue has to resume, otherwise as the ideal interlocutors for a successful outcome “what would be the region perspective.” Asked if of negotiations namely normalization of relations he would meet Thaci if he was involved in talks, between Serbia and Kosovo. It is assessed that Vucic replied that he could always say he would Vucic’s internal political stability (despite not speak to someone indicted of war crimes but accusations regarding media freedom, that it is up to Albanian people to choose their authoritarian practices, justice control etc) is leadership. (www.rs.n1info.com) based on his cooperation with the EU and US in reaching an agreement with Pristina. The EU has COUNTRY ASSESSMENT : raised serious concerns over Serbia’s effectiveness on independence and accountability SNS achieved a convinced victory on the elections of the judiciary, freedom of expression, of June 21st, 2020, despite opposition’s boycott. prevention of corruption and the fight against Turnout was a little less than 50% which is organized crime. Serbia pays special attention in slightly less of the respective four years ago. improving operational capabilities of its Armed Turnout which was not dramatically low could be Forces declaring towards all sides that they are assessed as a failure of opposition. On the other the power of the state. It implements an ambitious hand, the absence of a strong opposition in the armament program mainly supported by Russia. Parliament raises concerns over the parliamentary process, democratic control of the Government and transparency of Parliament’s

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SLOVENIA: June 22nd, Chief of the violence and that death threats are avoided. In General Staff, Brigadier-General Robert Glavas what is a likely reference to the “death to does not think situation at the moment grants Jansism” slogan, which is perceived by Prime invoking a special article of the defense act that Minister Janez Jansa as a direct death threat, would give the Army Police powers. Appearing in Pahor stressed he meant threats that targeted a talk show on TV Slovenija on Sunday, Glavas physical people, not calls addressing phenomena. said the Army had sufficient powers to help (www.sta.si) Police on the border under existing legislation. COUNTRY ASSESSMENT : This was in response to Police Commissioner Anton Travner saying he saw no reason why the Janez Jansa’s Government enjoys relative military would not operate in the country’s stability. Slovenia – Croatia dispute regarding the interior, not just along the border. (www.sta.si) Piran Bay is still active but without tension or

nd escalation due to COVID-19 pandemic. The - June 22 , the Defense Ministry presented a bill Slovenian Armed Forces face problems mainly in under which investments worth 780 million euro the field of modern equipment and manning. The are to be made in the Slovenian Armed Forces annual report on the Armed Forces operational (SAF) in 2021-2026. The majority of the funds, or readiness released by the Armed Forces Chief of 408 million euro, is to go for eight- and four- Staff is disappointing since it assessed that the wheeled armored personnel carriers for a Armed Forces have limited operational battalion. Defense Minister, Matej Tonin told the capabilities in war time namely they cannot newspaper Delo that if he was allowed to stay on accomplish their mission. Political decision to as Defense Minister, Slovenia would be able to finance Armed Forces with 780 million euro from set up a battalion which would meet NATO 2012 to 2026 for strengthening their defense standards by 2026. The core of the first battalion capabilities is moving ahead. will be a medium-sized mechanized battalion, which the Government would like to fully equip while this piece of legislation is in place. TURKEY: June 23rd, France’s (www.sta.si) attitude ignoring Turkey’s legitimate rights in the Eastern Mediterranean and supporting maximalist - June 25th, President Borut Pahor expressed ambitions hampers peace and stability while concern in an interview Wednesday about the low raising tensions in the region, the Turkish Foreign level of trust in political institutions, saying things Ministry stated Tuesday. The Μinistry further could get to a point “where somebody would urged French President Emmanuel Macron in a understand this as a call for autocracy.” “This written statement to end steps risking the security simply must not happen,” he told Radio Ognjisce. and future of Libya, Syria and the Eastern Pahor also commented on the anti-Government Mediterranean, and instead to use established protests. He said it is not possible to expect dialogue channels. “France, which has no coast in political correctness at protests, while the key the Eastern Mediterranean, has to understand thing is that there is no physical and verbal that acting like a coastal country does not give it

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the right to decide on regional issues. Paris strains soared further last week when France Unfortunately, it has been obvious for a long time denounced an “extremely aggressive” intervention that France cannot and does not want to evaluate by Turkish ships against a French Navy vessel the developments in the Eastern Mediterranean participating in a NATO mission in the healthily and objectively,” it said. “French Mediterranean, a claim Ankara dismissed as President Emmanuel Macron calling Turkey’s “groundless.” Macron described this as proof of support for the legitimate Government in Libya a his concern for NATO. (www.dailysabah.com) ‘dangerous game’ can only be explained with the - June 23rd, the appeals Court approved on abdication of reason,” the statement of the Tuesday nine years and eight months of jail time Ministry added. It highlighted that France has for main opposition Republican People’s significant responsibility for Libya’s drift into Party (Cumhuriyet Halk Partisi - CHP) Istanbul chaos, playing the actual “dangerous game” in head Canan Kaftancıoglu. Kaftancıoglu was Libya while it said that Paris’ silence in the face sentenced on charges of making propaganda for of General Khalifa Haftar backer Egypt’s threat to an armed terrorist organization; defamation of a intervene in Libya is also a fact to be noted. public servant, the President, and the Turkish state Commenting on Macron’s statements regarding and inciting public hatred and violence. She Turkey and Libya, Spokesman of Turkey's ruling denied all accusations, saying that she had not Justice and Development Party (Adalet ve intended to insult the President or the Turkish Kalkınma Partisi - AKP) Omer Celik criticized state. The Prosecutors originally sought up to 17 the French leader’s stance and said “France is in years for Kaftancıoglu. Eight people, including a position of a supporter of policies promoting President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, acted as instability in Libya and the Mediterranean.” “The complainants. The inquiry was started due to Libyan people will decide on Libya’s future, not comments Kaftancıoglu posted on social media France,” Celik added, “Macron’s politics is a between 2012 and 2017, as well as complaints, backing of putschists who try to steal the which were also stated in the accusation. Her legitimate will and future of the Libyan people. It posts concerning Sakine Cansız, a PKK founder can be clearly seen that those making alleged who died in France and was responsible for the statements against our President and those that recruitment of women for the group, were are disturbed by Turkey’s support for Libya are categorized as terrorist propaganda. She was after a new colonialism.” The Turkish Foreign convicted of the crime of provoking hatred and Ministry’s statement comes after Macron on hostility among people for her comments Monday accused NATO member Turkey of regarding the Gulenist Group’s (FETO) July 15th, playing a “dangerous game” with regard to Libya 2016, coup attempt. The CHP’s Istanbul head has which could threaten the whole region. Tensions been a highly controversial figure in Turkish have risen over the last year between Paris and society over questionable comments and actions. Ankara, notably when the French leader said the She previously expressed support for the PKK lack of NATO response to a Turkish anti-terror leader, who was assassinated in Paris in a likely operation in northern Syria showed the alliance internal feud in 2013. Two days after the murder, was undergoing “brain death.” The Ankara -

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Kaftancıoglu wrote on social media that this month expressed his readiness to discuss the “humanity is lost,” citing one of the Cansız’s delimitation of maritime zones with Turkey. statements on women. She has even seen serious “Greece is always open to a dialogue with Turkey backlash from the CHP’s own voter base but kept to delimitate the maritime zones,” Mitsotakis told her seat despite serious challenges. During the an economic forum in the capital Athens. campaign period for the March 31st elections, she (www.dailysabah.com) announced that she would be resigning from her post in reaction to the choice of mayoral COUNTRY ASSESSMENT : candidates; however, she later withdrew her Turkish intervention in Libya has become an issue resignation. The CHP was criticized for its of a wider struggle for power in the region. unofficial alliance with the pro-PKK Peoples’ France, Russia, UAE, Egypt, Greece on the one Democratic Party (Halkların Demokratik Partisi - hand (supporting General Haftar’s forces) and HDP) in the local elections. Turkey, US, Qatar, Italy (and the EU) on the (www.dailysabah.com) other supporting the UN-recognized Government of Fayez al-Sarraj. Things are getting more and - June 26th, President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and more complicated since Egypt threatens with Greece’s Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis held military intervention in Libyan territory; a a phone call on Friday to discuss bilateral situation which could put the whole region on relations as well as cooperation on tourism, fire. Turkey has invested its strategic interests security, the economy and the fight against the through its alliance with Sarraj and supports him COVID-19 pandemic, a statement by the Turkish by military assets. A potential victory of Sarraj Presidency said. Talks focused on the secures Turkish interests and strong presence of consequences of the coronavirus pandemic and Turkey in Eastern Mediterranean. At the moment issues relating to the reopening of borders and it seems that UAE is the main rival of Turkey in tourist visits following the end of lockdowns, the struggle for power in the Middle East and Mitsotakis’ office said. The statement of the East Mediterranean. However, France has taken Turkish Presidency said that the two leaders a leading role against Turkey in Eastern agreed to keep communication channels between Mediterranean and North Africa taking in the two countries open. Greece and Turkey are at advantage the absence (?) of the US and lack of odds over various decades-old issues ranging capability of German Armed Forces (Navy from mineral rights in the East Mediterranean, to mostly). The strategic cooperation of Greece, the ethnically split Cyprus. Turkey’s Ambassador Cyprus and Israel or Greece, Cyprus, Egypt to Athens Burak Ozugergin said this week that makes Turkey nervous. Moreover, delimitation of Ankara is open to discussing its differences with maritime zones between Greece and Italy in Greece, and the two neighboring countries can Ionian Sea frustrated Turkey. A potential resolve issues such as rights over natural agreement between Greece and Egypt on EEZ resources in the Eastern Mediterranean and the could become a source of turbulence in the region split of the island of Cyprus within the context of since Turkey will not accept “fait accompli” in the United Nations charter. Mitsotakis also earlier the east Mediterranean Sea. It is expected to react

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violently if balance of power is jeopardized. The Evolving or ongoing crisis including major country continues to face several restrictions in armed violence or violent/armed conflict. Civil, freedom of expression and human rights. Elected inter-state or non –state actors war. MPs, Mayors, journalists and thousands of citizens are in custody or convicted by the state Courts. Local and international observers claim the country moves towards an authoritarian regime with thousands of citizens being persecuted. Turkey develops an ambitious armament project aiming at becoming self- sufficient in defense sector; if it succeeds it will set the base to become a regional military super power. Without any question, Turkey has the characteristics of a regional superpower and it tries to act like one. However, the most important for taking this role in the region is to stabilize its economy and secondly to improve its military capabilities. www.hermesresearch.eu email: [email protected] Editor in Chief: Ioannis Karampelas

NOTE

Stable situation. No security risk.

Rather stable situation. Security risk is monitored.

Major concerns over stability and security. significant security risk in specific regions. Low tension incidents.

Imminent major incidents regarding stability and security. Violent incidents or armed violence in specific regions. Ongoing tension or crisis. High security risk.

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