National Disaster Risk Management Commission (NDRMC), Early Warning and Emergency Response Directorate Early Warning and Response Analysis April, 2017 This bulletin is prepared by the Early Warning and Emergency Response Directorate to coordinate and disseminate early warning and food security information. For any comments, questions or suggestions and/or to receive the bulletin on your email please write to dppc.gov.et If you are planning to contribute to the response effort, please inform NDRMC by writing to [email protected] Released on April 12, 2017 1 Early Warning and Emergency Response Analysis April, 2017 Contents Acronyms ......................................................................................................................................................... 2 Early Warning and Response Summary for March, 2017 .............................................................................. 3 Weather Condition ……………………………………………………………………………………………. 4 Crop and Livestock Condition ……………………………….………………………………………………. 6 Market Condition……………………………………………………………………..…………….…………. 7 Nutrition Condition ………………………………………………………………..…………….…………. 8 Appendix 1 ..................................................................................................................................................... 10 Appendix 2 ...................................................................................................................................................... 11 Early Warning and Emergency Response Directorate, NDRMC 2 Early Warning and Emergency Response Analysis April, 2017 ACRONYMS: CHD: Child Health Day CPI: Consumer Price Index CSA: Central Statistical Agency DRMFSS: Disaster Risk Management and Food Security Sector EGTE: Ethiopian Grain Trade Enterprise EHNRI: Ethiopian Health and Nutrition Research Institute ENCU: Emergency Nutrition Coordination Unit FAO: Food and Agriculture Organization FMOH: Federal Ministry of Health GAM: Global Acute Malnutrition HRF: Humanitarian Response Fund IDDR: International Day for Disaster Reduction IMC: International Medical Corps ITCZ: Inter Tropical Convergent Zone MAM: Moderate Acute Malnutrition NMA: National Meteorological Agency OTP: Outpatient Therapeutic Program PLW: Pregnant and Lactating Women SAM: Severe Acute Malnutrition TFU: Therapeutic Feeding Unit TSF: Targeted Supplementary Food TSFP: Targeted Supplementary Feeding Program WFP: World Food Programme Early Warning and Emergency Response Directorate, NDRMC 3 Early Warning and Emergency Response Analysis April, 2017 EARLY WARNING AND RESPONSE SUMMARY The anticipated near normal rainfall during the month of April 2017 over Oromiya (East and West Walesa, Jima Ilu Ababora, North and West Shewa, West and East Harargie, Arsi Bale Borena and Guji), Benishangul Gumuz, Amara(North and South Wello, West and East Gojam, the surrounding areas of Bahir Dar, Agewawi, North and South Gonder), Afar ( Zone 3,4 and 5), Most zones of Tigray, SNNPR(Hadiya, Guragie, Sidama, Kefa, Bench Maji, Wolayta, South Omo and Segen Peoples) and Somali Region would have positive contribution for the existing Belg season's agricultural activities. Moreover it would ease the persisted dry condition and have also positive contribution for the improvement of pasture and drinking water in the pastoral areas. Therefore, the concerned personnel should take proper measure ahead of time to utilize the expected favorable moisture condition efficiently. The expected flash flood in relation to the strength of weather systems might have negative impact in some localities. Thus the concerned personnel should take appropriate measures ahead of time in order to avoid damages due to flash flood particularly over the low-lying areas and in areas where the soils have low peculation capacity In accordance with the ENCU report nationally; 30, 156 admitted with 89% reporting rate in March 2017. This is the highest admission since April 2016 and similar with that of March 2016. This increased admission is reported from Somali, Oromia and SNNPR. However, the admission in Afar, Amhara and Tigrai is declined in March compared with February. In accordance with the FEWS NET Ethiopia market analysis (April 2017) even though Western surplus maize producing areas of the country received near normal production during Meher 2016, below average production in most parts of SNNPR and central Oromia and persistent increased in demand for maize as staple food constrained market supply in most parts of the country, in particular in areas where maize is the major staple food. On the other hand, sorghum supply in the northeastern parts of the country rated as normal following normal to above normal harvest obtained in Meher 2016. Early Warning and Emergency Response Directorate, NDRMC 4 Early Warning and Emergency Response Analysis April, 2017 I. Weather Condition Some areas reported heavy falls in a rainy day like Maji(37.7 mm) Algie(40.2 mm), Dolo Mana (46.6 1. Past Weather assessment (April 2017) mm), Jinka(42.6 mm), Masha(42.4 mm and 44.0 mm), Chercher (45.2 mm), Dugda(46.2 mm), 22 35 3920 29 22 Hawasa(47.3 mm), Nekemte(49.8 mm), Limu 25 25 21 31 400 57 51 Genet(55.5 mm), Gudo Meskel (54.0 mm), 12 18 33 300 39 118 71 30 28 Debresina(59.4 mm), Arba Minch(61.3 mm), Kibre 26 0 200 47 63 58 2725 41 37 90 0 16 47 100 Mengist(62.0 mm) and Mirab Abaya(70.2 mm) 46 200 91 57 53 20 6 89 86 29 20 46 289 134 34 70 22 0 50 65 28 during the month of April 2017. 1 49 28 24 32 114 1 6 25 126 57 35 16 34 91 46 67 79 81 155 48 9 127 158 59 3418 16 8 329 7 7 31 36 104 149 102 27 26 77 60 159 25 199 126 73 23 25 107 113 89 18 18 228 45 105 398 85 44 18 38 135 81 68 106 69 23 81 108 104 128 116 123 97 141 238 90 175 148 24 89 8033 93 124 24 47 Map 1: Rainfall distribution in mm for the month of April 2017 Source: NMA During the month of April 2017, a few areas of northwestern parts of SNNPR and pocket areas of western Orommiya exhibited falls greater than 300 mm. A few areas of northwestern and western parts of SNNPR received falls ranging from 200 – 300 mm. Some areas of western Amhara, parts of western and Map 2: Percent of normal rainfall distribution for April eastern Oromiya, southeastern tip of Benishangul 2017 Gumuz, eastern half of Gambela and most parts of SNNPR experienced falls ranging from 100 – 200 mm. Source: NMA Parts of central, northwestern and western Amhara, As indicated in map 2, most parts of western half of parts of western, eastern and central Oromiya, parts of Ethiopia experienced normal to above normal rainfall. eastern Benishangul Gumuz, western half of Gambala, Below normal rainfall has been observed over eastern parts of western Afar and most parts of Somali parts of Tigray, most parts of Afar, eastern half of experienced falls ranging from 50 – 100 mm. Most Amhara, southern, central and eastern Oromiya, eastern parts of Tigray, most parts of Amhara, parts of central half of SNNPR and most parts of Somali. and eastern of Oromiya, parts of Benishangul Gumuz and parts of northern Afar, experienced falls ranging from 25 - 50 mm. Western and northeastern parts of Tigray, northwestern margin of Amhara, most parts of Afar, northwestern Benishangul Gumuz, parts of northern and southern Somali received falls ranging from 5 - 25 mm. There was little or no rainfall over northern Somali and eastern Afar. Early Warning and Emergency Response Directorate, NDRMC 5 Early Warning and Emergency Response Analysis April, 2017 2 2. Weather outlook and possible impact for the 6 5 2 3 4 30 2 4 5 5 coming month/May 1-31, 2017 8 4 25 4 2 4 11 4 14 5 20 1 4 0 11 7 6 21 6 4 Under normal circumstance the Belg rain producing 3 0 5 3 15 3 19 3 8 4 3 2 9 5 5 14 3 2 systems will relatively lose their strength over Belg 6 3 4 1 0 18 10 10 3 1 10 6 4 3 15 2 2 14 8 3 1 4 producing areas of the country towards the second half 16 7 5 10 8 9 15 5 2 14 22 10 43 2 2 18 2 4 21 4 4 of the month of May. However, in accordance with the 16 18 3 8 4 8 11 1 24 15 6 3 5 6 9 8 3 6 23 16 8 9 23 4 National Meteorological Agency weather/climate 2 8 18 14 19 13 6 16 3 13 7 outlook during the upcoming May 2017 the weather 14 13 6 15 18 17 9 18 7 4 9 137 systems will have relatively better strength during the 9 11 5 first half of the month while a gradual decrease in 10 rainfall amount and distribution towards the second half of the month over the southeastern , eastern and Map 3: Number of Rainy days for the month April northeastern parts of the country. 2017 Source: NMA In general during the coming month/May 2017 near normal rainfall with a chance of heavy falls at places is A few areas of northwestern and western Oromiya anticipated over Oromiya (East and West Welega, Jima received falls greater than 20 rainy days. Western Ilu Ababora, North and West Shewa, West and East half of SNNPR, parts of western Oromiya and Harargie, Arsi Bale Borena and Guji), Benishangul southeastern tip of Benishangul Gumuz received falls Gumuz, Amara(North and South Wello, West and East in 15 -20 rainy days. A few parts of northwestern Gojam, the surrounding areas of Bahir Dar, Agewawi, Amhara, parts of western and central Oromiya, parts North and South Gonder), Afar ( Zone 3,4 and 5), Most of eastern Benishangul Gumuz, eastern Gambela and zones of Tigray, SNNPR(Hadiya, Guragie, Sidama, southern highlands of Oromiya received falls in 10 - Kefa, Bench Maji, Wolayta, South Omo and Segen 15 rainy days. Eastern half of Gambela, most parts of Peoples) and Somali Region. Moreover, in relation to western half Benishangul Gumuz, most parts of the strength of weather systems flash flood is likely in western half of Amhara, some areas of central, some areas of the above mention areas.