National Disaster Risk Management Commission (NDRMC),

Early Warning and Emergency Response Directorate

Early Warning and Response Analysis April, 2017

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Released on April 12, 2017

1 Early Warning and Emergency Response Analysis April, 2017

Contents

Acronyms ...... 2

Early Warning and Response Summary for March, 2017 ...... 3

Weather Condition ……………………………………………………………………………………………. 4

Crop and Livestock Condition ……………………………….………………………………………………. 6

Market Condition……………………………………………………………………..…………….…………. 7

Nutrition Condition ………………………………………………………………..…………….…………. 8

Appendix 1 ...... 10

Appendix 2 ...... 11

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2 Early Warning and Emergency Response Analysis April, 2017

ACRONYMS:

CHD: Child Health Day

CPI: Consumer Price Index

CSA: Central Statistical Agency

DRMFSS: Disaster Risk Management and Food Security Sector

EGTE: Ethiopian Grain Trade Enterprise

EHNRI: Ethiopian Health and Nutrition Research Institute

ENCU: Emergency Nutrition Coordination Unit

FAO: Food and Agriculture Organization

FMOH: Federal Ministry of Health

GAM: Global Acute Malnutrition

HRF: Humanitarian Response Fund

IDDR: International Day for Disaster Reduction

IMC: International Medical Corps

ITCZ: Inter Tropical Convergent Zone

MAM: Moderate Acute Malnutrition

NMA: National Meteorological Agency

OTP: Outpatient Therapeutic Program

PLW: Pregnant and Lactating Women

SAM: Severe Acute Malnutrition

TFU: Therapeutic Feeding Unit

TSF: Targeted Supplementary Food

TSFP: Targeted Supplementary Feeding Program

WFP: World Food Programme

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EARLY WARNING AND RESPONSE SUMMARY

 The anticipated near normal rainfall during the month of April 2017 over Oromiya (East and West Walesa, Jima Ilu Ababora, North and West Shewa, West and East Harargie, Arsi Bale Borena and Guji), Benishangul Gumuz, Amara(North and South Wello, West and East Gojam, the surrounding areas of Bahir Dar, Agewawi, North and South Gonder), Afar ( Zone 3,4 and 5), Most zones of Tigray, SNNPR(Hadiya, Guragie, Sidama, Kefa, Bench Maji, Wolayta, South

Omo and Segen Peoples) and Somali Region would have positive contribution for the existing Belg season's agricultural activities. Moreover it would ease the persisted dry condition and have also positive contribution for the improvement of pasture and drinking water in the pastoral areas. Therefore, the concerned personnel should take proper measure ahead of time to utilize the expected favorable moisture condition efficiently.

 The expected flash flood in relation to the strength of weather systems might have negative impact in some localities. Thus the concerned personnel should take appropriate measures ahead of time in order to avoid damages due to flash flood particularly over the low-lying areas and in areas where the soils have low peculation capacity

 In accordance with the ENCU report nationally; 30, 156 admitted with 89% reporting rate in March 2017. This is the highest admission since April 2016 and similar with that of March 2016. This increased admission is reported from Somali, and SNNPR. However, the admission in Afar, Amhara and Tigrai is declined in March compared with February.

 In accordance with the FEWS NET market analysis (April 2017) even though Western surplus maize producing areas of the country received near normal production during Meher 2016, below average production in most parts of SNNPR and central Oromia and persistent increased in demand for maize as staple food constrained market supply in most parts of the country, in particular in areas where maize is the major staple food. On the other hand, sorghum supply in the northeastern parts of the country rated as normal following normal to above normal harvest obtained in Meher 2016.

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4 Early Warning and Emergency Response Analysis April, 2017

I. Weather Condition Some areas reported heavy falls in a rainy day like Maji(37.7 mm) Algie(40.2 mm), Dolo Mana (46.6 1. Past Weather assessment (April 2017) mm), Jinka(42.6 mm), Masha(42.4 mm and 44.0 mm), Chercher (45.2 mm), Dugda(46.2 mm),

22 35 3920 29 22 Hawasa(47.3 mm), Nekemte(49.8 mm), Limu 25 25 21 31 400 57 51 Genet(55.5 mm), Gudo Meskel (54.0 mm), 12 18 33 300 39 118 71 30 28 Debresina(59.4 mm), (61.3 mm), Kibre 26 0 200 47 63 58 2725 41 37 90 0 16 47 100 Mengist(62.0 mm) and (70.2 mm) 46 200 91 57 53 20 6 89 86 29 20 46 289 134 34 70 22 0 50 65 28 during the month of April 2017. 1 49 28 24 32 114 1 6 25 126 57 35 16 34 91 46 67 79 81 155 48 9 127 158 59 3418 16 8 329 7 7 31 36 104 149 102 27 26 77 60 159 25 199 126 73 23 25 107 113 89 18 18 228 45 105 398 85 44 18 38 135 81 68 106 69 23 81 108 104 128 116 123 97 141 238 90 175 148 24 89 8033 93 124

24

47

Map 1: Rainfall distribution in mm for the month of April 2017

Source: NMA

During the month of April 2017, a few areas of northwestern parts of SNNPR and pocket areas of western Orommiya exhibited falls greater than 300 mm. A few areas of northwestern and western parts of SNNPR received falls ranging from 200 – 300 mm. Some areas of western Amhara, parts of western and Map 2: Percent of normal rainfall distribution for April eastern Oromiya, southeastern tip of Benishangul 2017 Gumuz, eastern half of Gambela and most parts of SNNPR experienced falls ranging from 100 – 200 mm. Source: NMA Parts of central, northwestern and western Amhara, As indicated in map 2, most parts of western half of parts of western, eastern and central Oromiya, parts of Ethiopia experienced normal to above normal rainfall. eastern Benishangul Gumuz, western half of Gambala, Below normal rainfall has been observed over eastern parts of western Afar and most parts of Somali parts of Tigray, most parts of Afar, eastern half of experienced falls ranging from 50 – 100 mm. Most Amhara, southern, central and eastern Oromiya, eastern parts of Tigray, most parts of Amhara, parts of central half of SNNPR and most parts of Somali. and eastern of Oromiya, parts of Benishangul Gumuz and parts of northern Afar, experienced falls ranging from 25 - 50 mm. Western and northeastern parts of Tigray, northwestern margin of Amhara, most parts of Afar, northwestern Benishangul Gumuz, parts of northern and southern Somali received falls ranging from 5 - 25 mm. There was little or no rainfall over northern Somali and eastern Afar.

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2 2. Weather outlook and possible impact for the 6 5 2 3 4 30 2 4 5 5 coming month/May 1-31, 2017 8 4 25 4 2 4 11 4 14 5 20 1 4 0 11 7 6 21 6 4 Under normal circumstance the Belg rain producing 3 0 5 3 15 3 19 3 8 4 3 2 9 5 5 14 3 2 systems will relatively lose their strength over Belg 6 3 4 1 0 18 10 10 3 1 10 6 4 3 15 2 2 14 8 3 1 4 producing areas of the country towards the second half 16 7 5 10 8 9 15 5 2 14 22 10 43 2 2 18 2 4 21 4 4 of the month of May. However, in accordance with the 16 18 3 8 4 8 11 1 24 15 6 3 5 6 9 8 3 6 23 16 8 9 23 4 National Meteorological Agency weather/climate 2 8 18 14 19 13 6 16 3 13 7 outlook during the upcoming May 2017 the weather 14 13 6 15 18 17 9 18 7 4 9 137 systems will have relatively better strength during the 9 11 5 first half of the month while a gradual decrease in

10 rainfall amount and distribution towards the second half of the month over the southeastern , eastern and Map 3: Number of Rainy days for the month April northeastern parts of the country. 2017

Source: NMA In general during the coming month/May 2017 near normal rainfall with a chance of heavy falls at places is A few areas of northwestern and western Oromiya anticipated over Oromiya (East and West Welega, Jima received falls greater than 20 rainy days. Western Ilu Ababora, North and West Shewa, West and East half of SNNPR, parts of western Oromiya and Harargie, Arsi Bale Borena and Guji), Benishangul southeastern tip of Benishangul Gumuz received falls Gumuz, Amara(North and South Wello, West and East in 15 -20 rainy days. A few parts of northwestern Gojam, the surrounding areas of Bahir Dar, Agewawi, Amhara, parts of western and central Oromiya, parts North and South Gonder), Afar ( Zone 3,4 and 5), Most of eastern Benishangul Gumuz, eastern Gambela and zones of Tigray, SNNPR(Hadiya, Guragie, Sidama, southern highlands of Oromiya received falls in 10 - Kefa, Bench Maji, Wolayta, South Omo and Segen 15 rainy days. Eastern half of Gambela, most parts of Peoples) and Somali Region. Moreover, in relation to western half Benishangul Gumuz, most parts of the strength of weather systems flash flood is likely in western half of Amhara, some areas of central, some areas of the above mention areas. Thus the southern and eastern Oromiya including most parts of concerned personnel should take appropriate measures Somali received falls in 5 -10 rainy days. Therefore, ahead of time in order to avoid damages due to flash the observed good distribution of rainfall could have flood particularly over the low-lying areas and in areas positive impact on season’s agricultural activities in where the soils have low peculation capacity. the above-mentioned areas. Besides, it could favor the availability of pasture and drinking water over the lowlands of southern, southeastern and southwestern

parts of the country. The rest of the country received falls in less than 5 rainy days; however though the numbers of rainy days are minimal it could have positive contribution for the early season’s agricultural activities of the coming Kiremt season.

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II. Crop and Livestock condition based on Dire Dawa the weekly Regional Situation Report Land preparation for Meher crops has been going on in 1. Crop condition most parts of the administrative region and some areas covered by Meher crops in some localities. 1.1 Season’s Agricultural Activities and Phenological Stages of the crop by Region Benishangul Gumuz

SNNPR Land preparation for long cycle crops has been started in the region during the month of April 2017 The late sown long cycle crops are at early vegetative stage while the timely sown crops were at late Tigray vegetative stage in Belg growing areas of SNNPR. Land preparation has been started in Belg growing From the planed Belg crop land coverage about 40% areas. of land covered by different types of crops in the same region. 1.2 Crop Pest and Diseases conditions

Oromiya SNNPR

Crops are at emergency to early vegetative stage in Out break and spread of Fall Armyworm in the whole of West Arsi and Arsi Zones. Land preparation for the Kembata Tenbaro Zone(51 Kebeles), Bench Maji (216 long cycle crops was underway in most parts of the Kebeles), Gamo Gofa (Melkoza, Ayida, Kemba, region. Oubadebretshay, , Denba Gofa, , Daramalo and Arba Minch), Dawuro(77 Kebeles), Sheka(3 Amhara Weredas), Dmot Pulusa(23 Kebeles), Bloso Sore (11 Belg crops are at early vegetative stage in Belg Kebes), Dugna Fango (9 Kebeles), Humbo(4 Kebeles), growing areas of the Region. From the planed Belg Damot Gale (18 Kebeles), Hadiya (East Bedewaco 26 crop land coverage 82% of the land covered by Kebeles, West Bedewaco 22 Kebeles and Shone 6 rural different types of crops. Kebeles), South Omo(North Ari, South Ari, Selamago and Male 37 Kebeles in total), Segen Peoples (Ale Afar Weredas 7 Kebeles, Konta Wereda 43 Kebeles) and Basketo Wereda (31 Kebeles). However the spread of Land preparation for Meher season has been started pest was under control by effective protection in Zone 2(, Qoneba, Dalol, and some measures. areas of ) by using moisture comes from the highlands of neighboring . Oromiya

Harari Outbreak of Armyworm has been reported from Jima zone (14 Woredas) and infestation of American Land Preparation started for Meher crops in the Bollworm was reported in East Wellega Zone Kenba region. Woreda.

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2. Livestock Situation 2.3 Livestock pest and Disease

2.1 Livestock body condition The outbreak of CBPP and CCPP has been observed in Borena Zone(Iwayu, Das, Gomly, Yabelo, Dilo and According to the Regional Bureau report a decrease Wochi Woredas. Moreover livestock skin disease, in livestock body condition has been observed in CBPP, CCPP, Blackleg, FMD and other opportunistic some parts of Oromiya (lowlands of Guji and Bale, diseases has been observed Somali Region(Korahe, West Shewa, most parts of Borena, North ShewaZone Jarar and Dolo) due to the erratic nature of rainfall (Degem and ),West Harargie(9 observed during the month. Weredas) and West Arsi(Shala, Sirao, Shashemene

and Arsi Negele) SNNPR (Lokabaya, Boricha, lowlands of Gamo Gofa, Mierab Abaya, , 3. Market Condition Daramalo and lowlands of Amaro, Burji, Konso and Derashe special Woredas), most parts of Persistent Increase in Maize Price Reported in Afar, Somali (in nine zones) and lowlands of Harari. Many Markets On the other hand the livestock body condition was reported in a good shape still in Tigray, Gambela, Although Western surplus maize producing areas of the Benishangul Gumuz and Dire Dawa. country received near normal production during Meher 2016, below average production in most parts of SNNPR and central Oromia and persistent increased in demand for maize as staple food constrained market 2.2 Shortage of Pasture and Drinking Water supply in most parts of the country, in particular in Shortage of pasture and drinking water has been areas where maize is the major staple food. On the reported in some areas of Oromiya (lowlands of Guji other hand, sorghum supply in the northeastern parts of and Bale , West Shewa, most parts of Borena , North the country rated as normal following normal to above ShewaZone (Degem and Debre Libanos),West normal harvest obtained in Meher 2016. Harargie(9 Weredas) and West Arsi(Shala, Sirao, Staple food prices are substantially rising the markets in Shashemene and Arsi Negele); SNNPR (lowlands of Somali Region and other southern pastoral areas where South Omo(Male, Benatsemai and Hamer), Segen prevailing current drought stimulated exceedingly high Peoples (all Weredas), Gamo Gofa (Kemba, Zala, demand. As per price data from zonal/woreda offices of Oubadebretshay, Boreda, Daramalo, Bonke and DPP, In Gode market sorghum and maize price in April Kucha), Wolayita Zone(Kindo Koyisha, Ofa Humbo 2017 has increased by 43 and 69 percent from last year and Damote Sore), Sidama Zone(Loka Abaya and (April 2016) respectively. Comparing with the last five- Borcha), Guragie Zone(Mareko, Mihur, Aklil, Gumer year average in the same market, recorded price and Eiza Wereda/7 Kebeles) and Silte Zone; Amhara increases are 49 percent for sorghum and 43 percent for (Oromiya Zone/Bati and Artuma Fursi, North maize. Wollo/Raya Kobo, Lasta and Dawunt/ lowlands of Waghemra and South Wollo) Gambela(Nuwer Zone) Price of maize, which is one of the main staple in most Afar (In most Weredas); Harari/ lowlands of 8 parts of the country continue to display a continuous Kebeles/ and Benishangul Gumuz(lowlands of increase on a higher in almost all parts of the country. Kurmuk, Sherkole and Guba Wereda. As a result According to data from woreda DPP offices, the water and animal feed rationing was going on in the recorded price increase in April 2017 compared to last above mentioned areas. year (April 2016) is 31 percent in Shashemene and 20

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Maize price, Shashemene Market, Oromia percent in Wenago markets. Price of maize also exhibited substantial increase from last five-year average and similar data source revealed 34 and 23 percent increase in Shashemene and Wenago markets respectively. (See Graph) Source: Woreda DPP office

On the other hand, price of sorghum in the north- eastern markets is showing staple trend in the recent months and current prices are lower than last year and long-term averages. For instance, in Woldia market in North Wello zone (Amhara), local sorghum price in April 2017 is lower by 30 percent from both April 2016 and last five-year average for the month of April. sorghum is well in favor of the shoat sellers to improve Livestock prices are on a significant rise in the north- the purchasing power and food access. eastern parts of the country for both cattle and shoats which is mainly linked with enhanced feed On the contrary, drought stricken parts of southern availability and thereby improved body condition and pastoral are suffering deteriorated livestock body also increased in seasonal demand for ox following condition and lower price. As per the data from the an extensive start of land preparation. Data from woreda DPP offices, shoat prices in Gode market in woreda DPP offices revealed that ox price in Sekota April 2017 is lower by 50 percent from last year and 35 market in Waghimra zone in April 2017 showed 24 percent from last five-year average.

percent increase from April 2016. Likewise, goat price in Woldia market is higher by 44 percent from April 2016 and 66 percent from last five-year average. Subsequently, Terms of Trade (ToT) of shoat for

4. Nutrition Condition

Nationally; 30, 156 admitted with 89% reporting rate in March 2017. This is the highest admission since April 2016 and similar with that of March 2016. This increased admission is reported from Somali, Oromia and SNNPR. However, the admission in Afar, Amhara and Tigrai is declined in March compared with February.

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In Somali region, New admissions to TFP rose from Amhara – 4 Woredas) through NGOs. There is still 7096 in February to 7835,619 in March (10%). The a significant gap in terms of TSF coverage in P2 February and March SAM admissions are the highest admission compared with past five years. Worst affected zones of Jarar, Doolo, Korahe, Errer, Liben Woredas with 122 Woredas not having MAM and Shabelle. treatment services. In Somali region, different modalities to improve access to MAM services continue. Super cereal plus distributed to 35% of MAM update population in 52 Woredas with distribution of relief food. WFP plans to target 338,000 individuals MAM response in 177 out of 192 P1 Woredas by during this BSFP allocation. WFP has also signed WFP covering 177 Woredas with the remaining 15 Field Level Agreements with 3 NGOs (SCI, ACF Woredas being covered by USAID/OFDA. and IRE) in Somali region to implement TSF. USAID/OFDA/FFP in total supports MAM treatment in 18 Woredas, 3 are P2 in Somali region (Somali – 10 Woredas, Tigray – 4 Woredas and

3,000 100% 2,500 80% 2,000 60% 1,500 40% 1,000 500 20%

0 0%

Admission Reporting Rate Rate Reporting ADMISSION Nb of TFP Mortality rate %

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Appendix 1

NDVI Picture

As can be seen from the recent NDIV picture (METEOSAT 21 – 30 April 2017) below to much below normal vegetation greenness has been observed over drought affected areas of the country like Oromiya (most parts of Borena, parts of Guji, most parts of Bale, parts of East and West Haragie, most parts of Arsi and West Arsi), SNNPR(most parts of South Omo, southern parts of Bench Maji, most parts of Gamo Gofa, Segen Peoples and Wolayita, eastern half of Dawuro, most parts of Kembata Tebaro, Silte and Guragie) and most parts of southern, southeastern and eastern parts of Somali.

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Appendix 2

Early Warning and Emergency Response Directorate, NDRMC