An ORF Monthly Monitor

EDITORIAL NOTE ORF EVENT As the swings into election mode, ORF has Report based on an interaction with State Senator Ellen begun to closely monitor the developments. We bring Roberts from Legislature and State news updates; commentaries; opinion polls as well as Representative Paul Thissen, Minority Leader from statements, speeches and interviews by the Presidential Minnesota candidates. We also look at role of the Indian Diaspora and its positions on various issues and explore the THE FIELD potential implications of the elections for India. We A look at the Republican and Democrat candidates who welcome your feedback and comments. are running for their party’s nomination

ANALYSES THE POLLS Gun Culture and US Elections Analysis of the popularity ratings of the presidential

Monish Tourangbam nominees conducted by various news agencies Given the complexities in finding the balance between

preventing rising mass shootings and an age-old STATEMENTS/INTERVIEWS American “common-sense” of owning guns, the fight Official statements and interviews by the candidates between gun control and gun ownership will continue to be a divisive issue in US politics and elections. DIASPORA WATCH News about the Indian American Diaspora in the elections Hillary Wins the Debate Hands Down Uma Purushothaman MEDIA REVIEW With her performance in the debate, Clinton has made What the media is reporting on the issues a great comeback, leaving behind at least for now the email controversy and other scandals. FURTHER READING A list of readings based on commentaries, journal articles and reports on the elections Marco Rubio: Return of the ‘Republican Saviour’? Sylvia Mishra Rubio’s strategy to emerge as the GOP nominee is focused on displaying strong debate performances and substantive policy speeches while gradually working on fundraising activities.

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Analyses

The NRA has been a ubiquitous feature of the gun control Gun Culture and US Elections debate, often being seen as that ultimate wall standing on the way to effective actions towards stricter gun Monish Tourangbam control laws in the United States. The money power of the group coupled with the loyalty and the political Gun rights, as rooted in the US Constitution’s second activism of the members apparently make it a formidable amendment, and gun control, reflective of rising gun- force against gun-control advocates. It reportedly has an related crimes in the United States has been a primary operating budget of some quarter of a billion dollars and issue in American politics. The tug of war is basically between 2000 and 2010, it spent fifteen times as much between those who argue gun ownership as a way of on campaign contributions as gun-control advocates did. defending oneself and others, and those who see owning Given the increasing number of gun-violence related guns as a ticket to rising violence. Moreover, the deaths in the US, it is ironic that the NRA website says, philosophy of gun rights has been constantly propagated “There’s never been a more important time to become a as one of individualism and liberty—core American member.”The group has aggressively created a fear values. It is also guided by a quintessential American psychosis among the people that the gun control disbelief in the government’s ability to come to one’s candidates were out to destroy the “sacrosanct” right to rescue at times of mortal danger. From the Columbine bear arms. High School Massacre in Colorado to the recent massacre at Umpqua Community College in Oregon, repeated But over the years, groups opposing the gun rights incidents of reckless gun ownership and its violent activism, and supporting gun control advocacy have also consequence has rocked American society and political increased their campaigns. For instance, Michael debates. However, American as well as observers abroad Bloomberg’s Super PAC, Independence USA, has spent seem resigned to the idea that the dust would soon settle millions backing gun-control candidates, and he has down and it will be business as usual. pledged fifty million dollars to the cause. Many of these campaigns are now directed to supporting candidates So, what are American politicians saying this election who call out for and fight for stricter screening and season on the divisive issue of gun control and gun background checks for gun buyers. Post the Oregon rights? How strong is the National Rifle Association’s massacre, President Obama pitched for tighter gun laws (NRA) influence to stem any substantive steps towards like never before, urging Americans to become “single gun control, and what do public opinion polls say? Will issue voters.” He said that helping elect officials who President Obama’s passionate call for stricter gun laws were sensitive towards the gun laws issue was the only from the pulpit bring any change, or will he go towards way to bring about some action in the Congress. the sunset in 2016 with having done practically nothing on this issue? According to President Obama, Americans should not elect officials who “oppose gun safety measures,” even if In the recently concluded Democratic debate in Las they were “great on other stuff.” Republican presidential Vegas, gun control was a major issue of debate. This is candidate Jeb Bush drew flak from President Obama for unlike previous election seasons when democratic referring to the Oregon mass shooting as “stuff happens.” candidates were more cautious about talking gun control “Look, stuff happens, there's always a crisis. And the for fear of losing rural white voters and some critical impulse is always to do something and it's necessarily the swing states like Ohio and Colorado. A general outrage right thing to do,” Bush said. Bush has an A+ rating from was seen at the continued inaction on restricting gun the NRA, like his fellow Republican opponent Ted Cruz. owners and gun manufacturers. Democratic Presidential Both have consistently opposed stricter gun laws.“The candidate Hillary Clinton said, “We have to look at the Second Amendment to the Constitution isn’t for just fact that we lose 90 people a day from gun protecting hunting rights, and it’s not only to safeguard violence….This has gone on too long and it's time the your right to target practice….It is a Constitutional right to entire country stood up against the NRA.”

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protect your children, your family, your home, our lives, between gun control and gun ownership will continue to and to serve as the ultimate check against governmental be a divisive issue in US politics and elections. tyranny — for the protection of liberty,” said Cruz. (Monish Tourangbam is Assistant Professor at the While Democrats increasingly swear by the rising number Department of Geopolitics and International Relations, of Americans who support stricter gun laws, including Manipal University, Karnataka) barring convicted criminals and those with mental illness from buying guns, the debates regarding people’s support for gun control or gun rights are not that clear. While there seems to be increasing outcry against gun- Hillary Wins the Debate Hands Down related violence, people’s opinion seems to be more Uma Purushothaman complicated when it comes to seeing gun ownership as the cause for these incidents. Periodic public opinion One week before the first Democratic presidential debate polls give varying results regarding Americans’ support on 13 October held in Las Vegas, Nevada and hosted by for gun rights versus gun control. While a December 2014 CNN, opinion polls showed that 44 percent of registered Pew survey tilted the scale towards the former, a more voters viewed her favourably, with 51 percent seeing her recent mid-July 2015 survey slightly shifted the scale in an unfavourable light. A week after the debate, the towards the latter. Americans, in general, seem to think same polls showed that 47 percent of all registered that crime is rising in the country. But at the same time, voters say they view Clinton favourably, while 46 percent there seems to be a rising perception among this group see her unfavourably. Another poll showed that her that owning guns, and not controlling them, could make ratings had jumped by ten points after the debate. These them safer. As opposed to Americans previously citing stark figures reflect how well Hillary Clinton fared at the hunting as the main reason for owning guns, they now debate. increasingly cite protection as the main reason. Hillary Clinton’s campaign has been dogged by the email Responding to the surge of activism among the controversy as well as her role in the Benghazi attacks Democratic leaders on the need for gun control, NRA and the strong challenge from self professed Democratic spokesman Andrew Arulanandam said, “The only Socialist Bernie Sanders. However, her performance at problem with the Democrats anti-Second Amendment the debate and subsequently her testimony at the House strategy is that the vast majority of Americans disagree Benghazi Select Committee have catapulted her as the with them on this issue.” There seems to be hardly any clear frontrunner for the Democratic nomination. consensus emerging on the effectiveness of background checks to stem gun-related violence. Gun rights Five Democrats took the stage at the debate: Former advocates have branded the entire background checks Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, Vermont Senator and system as not only flawed but unconstitutional as well, self proclaimed Democratic Socialist Bernie Sanders, likening it to controversial initiatives like the prohibition former Maryland Governor Martin O'Malley, former or the war on drugs. On other hand, those who speak for Senator Jim Webb and former Rhode Island Governor gun control recognize the loopholes in the National and former Republican Lincoln Chafee. But the debate Instant Criminal Background Check System (NICS) run by was essentially between Clinton and Sanders. the Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI). However, they deem it necessary and vouch for the need to fix it rather Unlike the Republican debate, there was little animosity than dismiss it as wholly ineffective. among the candidates and the debate was more about issues than about personal attacks. Those who expected Gun ownership and the related constitutional right are Sanders to come out swinging against Clinton over the reflective of the course of American history and culture email controversy, were disappointed by his declaration that prides individualism and a generic lack of faith in the that Americans are “sick and tired” of hearing about government to come to the individual’s rescue. However, Clinton’s emails. He instead wanted to focus on real given the complexities in finding the balance between issues facing America. This was a godsend for Clinton who preventing rising mass shootings and an age-old argued that the issue was a partisan attack which was American “common-sense” of owning guns, the fight meant to hurt her politically though she admitted it was a

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mistake. However, Lincoln Chafee criticised Clinton for Hill instead of the other way around, Clinton wanted using a private server for email as Secretary of State. more regulation. Both leading candidates attempted to consolidate middle class votes by promising free college The main issues that came up during the debate were tuitions and eliminating crushing college debts. The only gun control, the Trans Pacific Partnership, Immigration, point they differed on was that Clinton wanted students financial reform, policy towards Syria, the keystone XL to work for their free tuitions during college, Sanders pipeline and education. On the TPP, Clinton changed her opposed the proposal. earlier position when as Secretary of State she had said it set the “gold standard” for trade deals, saying the TPP as Clinton made a bid for women’s votes by highlighting it stands now falls short of the gold standard. Sanders that she would be the first woman President and support who has long opposed the TPP describing it as a paid maternity leave and Planned Parenthood. She also “disaster” attacked Clinton for her new found opposition tried to win over middle class votes with her proposal on saying she had always supported the trade deal. Clinton college tuitions, enhanced social security, parental leave also changed her position on the Keystone XL pipeline. and tax cuts. She also put emphasis on raising the While she had been inclined to support it earlier, she now minimum wage. Where Clinton gained over Sanders was opposes it because after a number of liberal donors made her experience in foreign policy. Sanders was not as it clear that they saw opposition to it as a litmus-test focussed on foreign policy and instead wanted to debate issue. It was Sanders’ position on gun control which economic inequality and talk about the structural shattered Sanders. Contrary to his liberal positions on imbalances in the American political system. He was thus most issues, Sanders has had a mixed record on gun not able to appeal to a broader more demographically control possibly because his home state is Vermont diverse audience. where many residents use firearms for sports and for hunting. He was again cornered over his opposition to Clinton came across as hawkish on foreign policy issues, immigration reform in 2007. showing an interventionist approach to the world. On domestic issues, she adopted a moderate progressive Clinton was attacked for her vote on her Iraq war, but stance. More importantly, she came across as confident, managed to silence her critics by pointing out that passionate and experienced. Her skilled debating skills despite her vote, President Obama chose her as his came to the fore during the debate. This is why most Secretary of State because he valued her judgement. On commentators feel that she won the debate. Though it Syria, Clinton wanted a “safe zone” over Syria and for the was Sanders who got more Twitter mentions and gained US to limit Russia’s influence by playing a stronger role. more followers on Twitter, thus winning the social media Sanders and O’Malley criticised her idea of a “safe zone” battle, it was Clinton who looked mature and for civilians in Syria. But what was most revealing in the Presidential, who walked away with the honours and debate was what the different candidates saw as potential voters. After the debate, Lincoln Chaffee and America’s biggest threat. While Lincoln Chafee saw it as Jim Webb both pulled out of the race for the nomination, the “chaos in the Middle East”, O’Malley saw it as “a a sign of how overwhelming Clinton’s performance was. nuclear Iran along with the ISIL” and climate change, With her performance in the debate, Clinton has made a Clinton thought it was “continued threat from the spread great comeback, leaving behind at least for now the of nuclear weapons, nuclear material that can fall into email controversy and other scandals. As many political the wrong hands”, Webb thought it is China and Sanders analysts have said, the Democratic nomination is now said it is climate change. hers to lose.

While Sanders has said he will probably support (Uma Purushothaman is a Research Fellow at ORF) Marijuana legalisation, Clinton has said she is not yet ready to support it though she supports decriminalisation. Regulating Wall Street was another Marco Rubio: Return of the ‘Republican Savior’? passionately discussed issue. While Sanders wanted to Sylvia Mishra break up big banks saying Wall Street regulates Capitol Marco Rubio featured in the cover of the Time magazine in February 2013 as ‘The Republican Savior’ and the ‘new

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voice’ of the Republican Party. Nearly two years after Rubio’s political action committee paid a firm more than being hailed as the future of the party, influential figures $40,000 to conduct opposition research on Rubio, to dig in both conservative and moderate wings of the GOP into family stories, financial documents and real estate abandoned him during the early stages of his 2016 records– anything that could emerge in a political “oppo” presidential campaign. Rubio’s embrace of immigration file. Whilst campaign financing and making super PACs reform led several national conservative groups and play a pivotal role in politics and especially for GOP activists including Washington lobbyist and Rubio’s contending presidential nominees, Rubio’s financial longtime adviser Dirk Van Dongen to break away from his struggles are only favourably playing into his hands. His campaign and instead support Jeb Bush and Senator Ted paltry estimated net worth of $444,000 according to the Cruz. Center for Responsive Politics vis-à-vis other candidates has appealed to the American middle class. When freshman Senator Rubio from launched his presidential campaign in April 2015, in spite of his In the context of Rubio’s policies, his promise of uniting rhetoric flourish, his campaign was dubbed as shoestring disparate wings of the GOP and bringing change by and ‘underdog’ for 2016. Fast forward to November dislocating establishment politics has drawn a large 2015, mostly all national polls on 2016 Republican section of the American populace to him who are presidential race showcase Rubio’s upward trend. Within disillusioned with Washington’s politics. His vision for tax a span of six months, how did Rubio get both the party’s and higher education reforms to usher in a “New grassroots base and billionaire donors to rally support in American Century” is marked by innovation and his favour? How did Rubio transition from an underdog prosperity to ensure America’s global competitiveness. campaigner to become the next GOP rising star? Whilst He has also pledged to overhaul the higher education walking the political tightrope vacillating between third system within the first 100 days of his presidency by or fourth position in the GOP nomination race, would expanding access to career and vocational schools as well Rubio be able get stronger as a candidate? as apprenticeship programmes for training on the job.

Rubio’s strategy to emerge as the GOP nominee is True to his conservative party roots, he argues against focused on displaying strong debate performances and raising the minimum wage as he believes it would only substantive policy speeches while gradually working on accelerate automation and outsourcing of jobs rather fundraising activities. He is steadily climbing up the path than improve the quality of workers’ lives. This is one to GOP nomination by keeping a low profile whilst the issue that is going to dominate the 2016 elections as top brass anti-establishment candidates like billionaire Hillary Clinton, the most likely Democratic Party nominee, and the soft-spoken retired neurosurgeon has made the issue of raising the minimum wage the embroil themselves in fighting each other. In centerpiece of her campaign. an interview with CBS ‘Face the Nation’, he stated that his campaign is not going to be about attacking any other Whilst the US presidential elections are never about Republicans and he would rather debate policy foreign policy issues, the 2016 elections would be differences on legitimate issues. Thus, instead of markedly different and foreign policy is going to be indulging in verbal blitzkrieg against political rivals, Rubio central to the elections. In the realm of foreign policy, has been focused on building a personal narrative – one Rubio’s ability to articulate the message of America’s of struggle of the son of immigrant maid and a hotel international leadership will sustain him in the long race bartender. to the Oval Office. As he writes on his vision of the US foreign policy and how America can restore its strengths In press conferences and interviews, Rubio reiterates the in Foreign Affairs, he states that he would first and debt he owes to America for changing his family’s history foremost restore relationships in the 21st century with saying, “America is the only place in the world where who new world powers like India, China and Japan and will you come from doesn’t determine how far you go’. And build diplomatic trust. this is American miracle of a strong economy and equal opportunity which Rubio envisions for the American His foreign policy orientation towards China vacillates citizens in his efforts to build the New American Century. between one of an accommodating approach whilst Resolute in his preparation for image building, reportedly sounding tough on policies China follows domestically.

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Recently, Rubio slammed China’s new two-child policy Delhi’s strategic community. Senator Roberts and saying it will still allow the Communist government to Representative Thissen provided a valuable overview of force women to abort any children conceived after they the policy landscape in the run up to the US presidential have two children. In the domain of international trade, elections in 2016. to give more heft to President Obama’s Pivot to Asia policy, Rubio had voted to give the administration fast During the course of the session, both the leaders track authority to push its Trans Pacific Partnership trade explained the role of the Indian Diaspora and how the deal. On issues of Middle East, during his latest interview Indian community has become a vibrant part of both the on ‘Face the Nation’, he spoke about a broader strategy American electoral process and policy making. Both of tactical coordination among the United States, Kurds leaders added that constructive dialogue on issues like and Sunnis to defeat the Islamic State. economy, immigration, gun laws and education which have always been significant will have important bearing The latest Monmouth University poll shows Republican on the elections. However, in 2016 elections, issues like candidate Donald Trump maintaining his lead in the GOP climate change, environment and women empowerment New Hampshire primary but Rubio has tripled his support are also going to dominate the discussions. since September. Rubio was in third place at 13% but that is up from 4% from the last Monmouth New Hampshire In her opening remarks, Senator Roberts mentioned that poll in September. Rubio's favorability rating has risen despite the efforts to highlight partisan politics of since September climbing from 50% to 62% after his Washington, at the State Legislatures, Republicans and widely praised debate performance. Democrats mostly work together in tandem to resolve issues which impact American citizens. This is contrary to This upward mobility in polls comes after Rubio gave a common understanding of the partisanship prevalent in good response when asked about his sparse attendance the US Congress as there is mostly bipartisanship in the record in the Senate. Rubio is increasingly likened to State legislatures. Representative Thissen added that being the Obama of the GOP. However, despite the uncertainty of the economy has added to the growing obvious comparison, it gives Rubio far too much credit sense of mistrust in politics at the Federal level owing to for someone who has just begun to exhibit potential for gridlocks that has incapacitated the government’s ability GOP nomination. When moderator John Harwood asked to implement policies. Rubio to respond to the fact that the Tax Foundation determined his tax plan would enrich the top 1 percent Due to the excessive media coverage given to Donald much more than the middle-class, Rubio denied the math Trump’s emergence as the leading GOP Republican saying, “You're wrong" and accused the Tax Foundation nominee, the audience was keen to know the reasons for of mixing up percentage calculations. As the race Trump’s popularity. Senator Roberts explained that intensifies, Rubio’s longevity in the race would be Trump’s candidacy is viewed more seriously outside the predicated on his ability to go deeper into details of his US. Trump’s approval ratings have certainly made him the policies to convince American voters of his vision and face of the GOP. However, she stated that there are viability of the ‘New American Century’. other Republican nominees who are willing to tackle domestic and international challenges with more (Sylvia Mishra is a Junior Fellow at ORF) realistic policy options.

ORF EVENT Representative Thissen felt that Trump’s soaring popularity is due to the lack of trust in Washington’s ORF Hosts State Senator Ellen Roberts from Colorado politics wherein politicians have failed to deliver on and State Representative Paul Thissen from Minnesota promises. He also acknowledged that Trump has been responsible for bringing up issues like immigration which On 5 October 2015, the Observer Research Foundation would not have been healthily debated otherwise. He (ORF) hosted State Senator Ellen Roberts from Colorado also mentioned that Trump’s ideas on income inequality Legislature and State Representative Paul Thissen, and his decision to tax the wealthiest hedge fund Minority Leader from Minnesota for an interaction with managers to bridge the increasing gap in incomes have added to his popularity.

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Both leaders maintained that there is broad bipartisan especially in rural parts of the State. Representative support for the United States’ strategic partnership with Thissen added that even Democrats are divided on the India. Representative Thissen highlighted that in gun control and gun rights. He said that Michael Minnesota there are 40,000 Indian Americans and the Bloomberg, former Mayor of , has been putting Indian Diaspora has been a significant contributor to significant resources into gun control on the political side Minnesota’s high-tech economy. Out of the 50 states in and it would be interesting to see how the issue shapes the US, Minnesota is the third largest state investor in up during the 2016 elections. India with around $2 billion investments. Additionally, Minnesota has 19 registered Fortune 500 companies On the issue of Planned Parenthood, Senator Roberts which are carrying out operations and expanding in India. maintained that while she supports women health rights There is a clear recognition that the Indian community is and believes that abortion shouldn’t be illegal however, a huge reservoir of talent and both Senator Roberts and she raised concerns about the Planned Parenthood and Representative Thissen admitted that the Indian diaspora the sale and use of foetal tissues for research purposes. has been instrumental in deepening and strengthening On the issue of campaign finances, Representative India-US relations and will continue to do so in the future. Thissen clarified that Democrats are opposed to all kinds They both agreed that economic forces are going to drive of huge funding and creating super PACs as ability to the two countries closer. Senator Roberts highlighted raise money defeats the purpose of healthy competition. that the Indian community in Colorado has served as a He said that in Minnesota there are campaign spending critical mass in influencing policy making. The Indian limits and during Democratic Caucuses, Americans are community, as both leaders noted, is a politically talking about campaign financing as a salient issue for engaged community and does not get involved in identity 2016 elections as Hillary Clinton has made it the politics. Being an affluent community, the community centrepiece of her campaign. The interaction with both engages on issues that concerns their daily lives and the leaders concluded with the note on the intra-party businesses. divisions among the Democrats on issue of TPP. Representative Thissen stated that there is a very serious Senator Roberts emphasized the important role and rise policy concern and debate on whether or not the TPP is of the states and mentioned in the realm of international going to impact American jobs. trade and business that each state has a role to play. She explained that the Federal government is completely tied The meeting was chaired by Mr Arun Mohan Sukumar of down and overstretched in its responsibilities. This has ORF and attended by academia and media persons. enabled the states to move in an agile manner in directions which the Federal government is incapable of (This report is prepared by Sylvia Mishra, Junior Fellow, doing. The ability of State Legislatures to forge close ORF) connections with American citizens on policies that directly impact citizens’ lives has consolidated their role and position.

During the Question and Answer session, discussions ranged on issues like the NRA (National Rifles Association) and gun laws, Water scarcity, Planned Parenthood, Campaign Financing and the Trans Pacific Partnership (TPP). Senator Roberts stated that Colorado shares common issues like water scarcity and water quality with India and that these issues deserve urgent attention from respective governments. She added that in Colorado, the Democrats pushed a lot of bills on gun control. However, the NRA has very strong support,

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The Field

Democratic Party Official Site: https://www.chrischristie.com/ Government Site: Office of Governor Chris Christie Hillary Clinton Facebook: www.facebook.com/GovChrisChristie Former Office:US Secretary of State; Senator, New York Twitter: www.twitter.com/GovChristie Campaign Site: HillaryClinton.com PAC Site: Priorities USA Action PAC Ted Cruz Independent PAC Site: ReadyForHillary.com In Office: Senator, Texas Twitter: www.twitter.com/HillaryClinton Official Site: www.cruz.senate.gov Government Site: Office of US Senator Ted Cruz Facebook: www.facebook.com/TedCruzPage Martin O'Malley Twitter: www.twitter.com/TedCruz Former Office:Governor, Maryland PAC Site: O'Say Can You See PAC Facebook: www.facebook.com/MartinOMalley Carly Fiorina Twitter: www.twitter.com/GovernorOMalley Profession: former businesswoman and CEO, Hewlett Packard Bernie Sanders Official Site: https://carlyforpresident.com/ In office: Senator, Vermont Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/CarlyFiorina/ Twitter: https://twitter.com/CarlyFiorina Campaign Site: https://berniesanders.com

Government Site: Office of US Senator Bernie Sanders Facebook (Campaign): www.facebook.com/FriendsOfBernie Former Office: Governor, Arkansas Facebook (Official): www.facebook.com/SenatorSanders Official Site: https://www.mikehuckabee.com/ Twitter: www.twitter.com/SenSanders Twitter: https://twitter.com/GovMikeHuckabee Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/mikehuckabee

Republican Party In Office: Governor, Ohio Official Site: https://johnkasich.com/ Twitter: https://twitter.com/JohnKasich Jeb Bush Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/JohnKasich Former Office: Governor, Florida Official Site: https://jeb2016.com Rand Paul Facebook: www.facebook.com/JebBush Office: Senator, Kentucky Twitter: www.twitter.com/JebBush Official Site: https://www.randpaul.com/ Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/RandPaul Ben Carson Twitter: https://twitter.com/randpaul Profession: Neurosurgeon Official Site: RealBenCarson.com Marco Rubio PAC Site: American Legacy PAC In Office: Senator from Florida Facebook: www.facebook.com/DrBenjaminCarson Official site: http://www.rubio.senate.gov/public/ Twitter: www.twitter.com/RealBenCarson Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/MarcoRubio Twitter: https://twitter.com/marcorubio Chris Christie In Office: Governor, New Jersey

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Donald Trump Official site: https://www.donaldjtrump.com/ Profession: Businessman Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/DonaldTrump Twitter: https://twitter.com/realdonaldtrump

THE POLLS

Table 1

2016 Democratic Presidential Nomination

Table 1 shows the leading candidates in the 2016 Democratic Presidential Nominations. In all the surveys conducted by IBD/TIPP, NBC/WSJ, ABC/Wash Post, Monmouth and CNN/ORC, Hillary Clinton has a huge lead over her opponents. Her popularity has risen after her performance in the first Democratic presidential debate. With Vice President Joe Biden deciding against a presidential bid, Ms Clinton’s campaign has a got a huge boost . It seems likely that she will get her party’s nomination.

Source:www.realclearpolitics.com, 31 October 2015

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Table 2

2016 Republican Presidential Nomination

Table 2 indicates the popularity of the 2016 Republican Presidential Nominees. The polling data reveals that on an average, Donald Trump has a lead cumulatively in surveys conducted by IBD/TIPP, CBS/NY Times, NBC/WSJ, Monmouth and ABC/Washington Post. Ben Carson is the second most popular candidate, leading over Marco Rubio, Ted Cruz and Jeb Bush. Carly Fiorina, whose popularity had surged last couple of months, now seems to be losing out in the popularity stakes.

The tables together show that while the Democrats have clear front-runner in Hillary Clinton, the Republicans still do not have a nominee whose lead is insurmountable. While Donald Trump is leading nationally, in Iowa, where the first presidential caucus will be held in February 2016, Ben Carson has a good lead over him. However, a clear picture of the leading nominees will emerge only towards the end of the year.

Source:www.realclearpolitics.com, 31 October 2015

Statements/Interviews fellow candidates and why American just might be ready to elect a Socialist as President.

Tom Ashbrook: When you dove in, was it to make, to deliver a message, or to win? Did you think you’d be in Tom Ashbrook’s Interview with Senator Bernie Sanders, this position at this point in the campaign? 1 October, for the Radio Show ‘On Point’ Bernie Sanders: No, when we got into this race, our intention was to win. We thought we had a message that would resonate with the American people. My experience Senator Bernie Sanders (I-VT) has been making waves has been that the American people are sick and tired of across the country during the ongoing 2016 presidential seeing the middle class continue to decline. Over 47 campaign, drawing huge crowds and raising millions of million people living in poverty and almost all new dollars in campaign donations from more than a million income and wealth going to the top one percent. That individual donors. The outsider candidate for the was a message that I believed would resonate. Democratic nomination for President is anything but a longshot, and he joined Tom Ashbrook from Capitol Hill to discuss the growth of his campaign, his feelings on his Tom Ashbrook: We wanna talk to you about what you 10 want to do, Bernie Sanders, how you want to do it, and Wallace: It becomes almost a cliche in this political cycle then Presidential politics. Big picture, what you wanna that people are fed up with politicians, but back when do, you’re talking about a political revolution and a very you announced in June, most of the so-called experts big agenda of changes. Big picture, what do you want to including me, thought you had no chance and that people do? would end up voting for somebody with political Bernie Sanders: Big picture is, we have got to end the experience. How did you know that discontent, grotesque level of income and wealth inequality in this frustration with the system, would be the prevailing country. We have got to create millions of decent paying mood in 2015? jobs because real unemployment in this country, Tom, is Trump: I felt it. I mean I felt it from within. We have not 5.1 percent, it’s over ten percent when you include tremendous discontent in the country. We have those people who have given up looking for work, and tremendous problems in the country. And I felt it early on those people who are working part time. Youth or I wouldn't have done this. But I see tremendous unemployment for African American kids is 51 percent. discontent. We have more people in jail than any other country. So yes, count me as a radical. I want to invest in jobs and Wallace: Would you be willing to use the debt limit and education for our young people rather than jails and risk the possibility of the country going into default to get incarceration. In my view, the Citizens United Supreme more spending cuts? Court decision is an affront to democracy in this country. Trump: I would use the debt limit. I don't want to say -- I It has got to be overturned. want to be unpredictable, because, you know, we need unpredictability. Everything is so predictable with our Tom Ashbrook: For Democrats, why vote for you, Bernie country. But I would be very, very strong on the debt Sanders, rather than, at this point, Hillary Clinton, let’s limit. And I would be asking for a very big pound of flesh if say? I were the Republicans. And the problem with the Bernie Sanders: Well, you know, I have known Hillary Republicans, they have two sides. The smaller side is very Clinton for 25 years and I have a great deal of respect for strong and the other side is always agreeing and, you Hilary Clinton. We have known each other, we served in know, you can't do that. the Senate together. But I think people have to assess where we are this moment in the history of this country. Wallace: Would you be willing to shut down the And if you think establishment politics and establishment government in order to defund Planned Parenthood or to economics is the answer to our problems, fine, there are push some other key policy goal? good candidates out there. But if you think it’s time for Trump: I do not want to say that because I want to show what I define as a political revolution, and that means unpredictability. You have to. You can't just go around involving millions and millions of people in the political and say that. But Planned Parenthood should absolutely process today in a way that has never been the case be defunded. I mean if you look at what's going on with before, than I think I’m your candidate. that, it's terrible. And many other things should be defunded and many things should be cut. Source: For the complete transcript, see http://onpoint.wbur.org/2015/10/01/transcript-bernie- Wallace: You are one of the few candidates who has sanders-interview come out with a detailed tax plan. Let's drill down into that. You would cut the seven tax brackets to four. Zero, Donald Trump on " Sunday" With Chris 10%, 20%, 25. You'd cut the corporate tax rate from 35% Wallace to 15. You would limit deductions for higher-income earners. And you would eliminate "carried interest" GOP front runner Donald Trump sits down with Chris preferential tax treatment for hedge funders. What's the Wallace for an exclusive interview to discuss his campaign thinking? strategy and explaining his comments about 9/11 and Trump: Well the thinking is we have the highest tax rate George W. Bush, his usage of Social Media and its impact in the world. In the entire world, we have the highest tax upon his image going forward in the campaign. rate. There's gridlock in Washington because there's no 11 An ORF Publication leadership. So what I'm doing is a large tax cut especially replay_and_transcript_donald_trump_with_fncs_chris_ for the middle class and they're gonna—we're going to wallace.html have a dynamic country. We're going to have dynamic economics. And it's going to be something really special. And people are going back to work. DIASPORA WATCH

Wallace: You brought up trade. You would end NAFTA. You would kill the Pacific Trade Agreement. You would US Elections: Indian Americans Jump Into Campaign impose tariffs on some products like 35 percent on Ford cars made in Mexico. "The Wall Street Journal" says that Indian Americans are getting more and more involved you are running as, quote, "the most anti-trade candidate in the US election campaign. While some of them are since Herbert Hoover." hosting fund raisers, others are organizing campaigns. Trump: Okay, so here's the deal. First of all, "The Wall There are more than three million Indian-Americans Street Journal" was bought for $5 billion. It's now worth in the US— the third largest Asian community in the $500 million, OK. They don't have to tell me what to do. country. There is a large number of Indian American "The Wall Street Journal" has been wrong so many in public offices, both state and federal. But many different times about so many different things. I am all analysts feel that the community has not asserted for free trade, but it's got to be fair. When Ford moves itself enough as a group. As senior journalist Seema their massive plant to Mexico, we get nothing. We lose all Sirohi said, "The problem is can they translate this of these jobs. What do we get out of it? I don't want money and involvement into political clout. This is them to move their plants. where the community has not really matured as much it should have by now. In order to get things for the Wallace: Do you blame George W. Bush for 9/11? community or for Indo-American relations like H1B Trump: Look, look, Jeb said we were safe with my visas." brother. We were safe. Well, the World Trade Center just fell down! Now, am I trying to blame him? I'm not Source: http://www.ndtv.com/indians-abroad/us- blaming anybody. But the World Trade Center came elections-indian-americans-jump-into-campaign- down. So when he said, we were safe, that's not safe. We 1230288, 9 October 2015 lost 3,000 people, it was one of the greatest - probably the greatest catastrophe ever in this country if you think about it, right? MEDIA REVIEW

Wallace: What would you have done? Trump: Well, I would have been much different, I must tell you. Somebody said, well, it wouldn't have been any Joe Biden decides against Presidential Bid, a Big different. Well, it would have been. I am extremely, Boost to Hillary Clinton extremely tough on illegal immigration. I'm extremely Putting an end to all speculation, Vice President Joe tough on people coming into this country. I believe that if Biden announced that he has decided against a I were running things, I doubt those families would have - second presidential bid. I doubt that those people would have been in the country. So there's a good chance that those people The reason he gave was that he did not have enough would not have been in our country. With that being said, time to launch a winning campaign. His I'm not blaming George Bush. But I don't want Jeb Bush announcement is expected to give a huge boost to to say my brother kept us safe because September 11 Hillary Clinton’s campaign. However, Democrats still was one of the worst days in the history of this country. worry that public doubts about Hillary Clinton’s record would leave her a weakened candidate in the Source: For complete transcript, see presidential election. http://www.realclearpolitics.com/video/2015/10/18/full_

12 An ORF Publication If Joe Biden had decided to launch a presidential bid, out No. 1 on Magazine’s list of the 50 most polls show that he would have won the support of influential people in politics. “Has the Libertarian one-fifth of Democrat supporters, which would have Moment Finally Arrived?” Robert Draper asked in the largely come at Clinton’s expense. Biden’s New York Times Magazine. Perhaps a better question announcement signals the end of a four decade long is: Have the media ever been more wrong? Pundits career in public office. It also confirms that the speculated that the Kentucky senator would be a Democratic nomination is for Hillary Clinton to lose as more plausible leader than his father, former Texas Biden was the only one who could have thrown a real Representative Ron Paul, for a newly mainstreamed challenge at her bid. Clinton has been doing well in libertarian alliance that would bring together critics of polls over Bernie Sanders who has won over the U.S. foreign policy interventionism and government progressives. Clinton on the other hand has managed surveillance and advocates of drug decriminalization to win the support of moderates, Latinos and people and criminal justice reform from across the political of colour, a support base which a Biden bid would spectrum. But the libertarian moment was have threatened. momentary indeed. The Republican presidential primary was upended not by Rand Paul but by Donald Source: Los Angeles Times, 21 October Trump, whose agenda is the exact opposite of The Moment when Hillary Clinton won the first libertarianism in almost every way. Libertarians want Democratic debate open borders; Trump promises to build a wall with Mexico and deport millions of illegal immigrants. This is the moment when Hillary Clinton won the first Libertarians want to privatize Social Security; Trump Democratic debate. She said, “I’m a progressive, but has defended Social Security and Medicare. I’m a progressive who likes to get things done.” Libertarians want to cut defense spending; Trump Clinton went on to talk about how she has worked wants a big military, though he promises not to use it with Republicans to pass the Children’s Health unwisely. And, among Republicans, Trump is a relative Insurance Program, a bona-fide progressive victory. dove. The others in the GOP field compete to be more The message was: The way to advance progressive bellicose than Barack Obama or Hillary Clinton. goals is not to toss off an ideologically satisfying wish- list of grandiose government programmes and expect Source: www.politico.com, 20 October 2015 the country to suddenly fall into agreement, it is to admit that policymaking demands a sense of nuance Democrats like Bernie Sanders. They just don’t think and of the possible. Clinton made the case that she he can win offers much more than political triangulation and an e-mail scandal. She argued that she offers Bernie Sanders has gotten further in the 2016 thoughtfulness and competence — and that this does presidential than a 74-year old self-professed not make her an ideological turncoat. “I’m not taking Democratic Socialist might reasonably expect. He is a backseat to anyone on my values, my principles and ahead of Hillary Clinton in New Hampshire, nearly the results that I get,” she declared, before saying she bested her in fundraising over the past three months would target additional federal spending at people and is drawing crowds in the thousands everywhere who really need it rather than promising massive he goes. Despite all of those successes, Sanders still expansions of government programmes in order to faces one major problem in this campaign: Huge offer benefits to rich as well as poor. majorities of Democrats don't think he can win. The Source: , 13 October 2015 new Washington Post-ABC News poll tells the story. Asked who they thought would win—no matter which The False Rise and Fall of Rand Paul candidate they supported— only one in 10 Democrats It was only a year ago that Rand Paul appeared on the (11 percent) named Sanders. By contrast, 65 percent cover of Time magazine with the headline, “The Most chose Clinton. Isolate just self-described liberals— Interesting Man in Politics.” Time was hardly alone in who comprise Sanders's base—in that same poll and this assessment. Paul was the subject of a lengthy the result doesn't change much; 67 percent name front-page profile in the New York Times and came 13 An ORF Publication Clinton as the party's most likely nominee while 13 the event. The event reflected the influence of the percent chose Sanders. evangelical vote in the Republican Party and the newfound importance of Texas in 2016, which has Source: The Washington Post, 20 October 2015 moved up in the primary calendar to March 1.

Source: www.politico.com, 18 October 2015 The Agony of Jeb Bush

Jeb Bush received a major setback during the third Republican presidential debate. Bush looked FURTHER READING overmatched and lost — an image made all the worse by the fact that he was positioned on the stage in Boulder, Colorado next to Marco Rubio, his one-time political mentee but now quite clearly his superior in Nate Silver, ‘Maybe Republicans Really are in the race. Bush's attempt to attack Rubio was a Disarray’, 28 October 2015, metaphor not only for his debate performance, but http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/maybe- for his campaign. Knowing he needed to land a clean republicans-really-are-in-disarray/ punch on Rubio, Bush piggybacked off a question Jacob Heilbrunn, ‘The Republican Civil War’, National from the moderators about Rubio's sparse attendance Interest, 20 October 2015, record in the Senate and tried to attack. But Bush http://www.nationalinterest.org/feature/the- doesn't really like attacking. Once Jeb Bush’s republican-civil-war-14101 campaign began in earnest, it became clear that Bush was more than just rusty from having not run a Conor Friedersdorf, ‘The Anti-Utopian Instinct and the campaign in more than a decade. He was simply Conservative Revolt’, The Atlantic, 30 October 2015, underwhelming at every turn. In each of the first two http://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2015/10 debates, while far less experienced politicians such as /the-anti-utopian-instinct-and-election-2016/412756/ Rubio, Donald Trump, Carly Fiorina and Ted Cruz outshone Bush, his allies sifted through the scraps of David A. Graham, ‘Is There Any Hope of Fixing the the debate in search of signs of life. Republican Debates?’, The Atlantic, 30 October 2015, http://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2015/10 Source: The Washington Post, 29 October 2015 /republicans-in-disarray/413314/

Cruz, Carson wow Evangelicals in Texas Rich Lowry, ‘Hillary: It’s Sexism, Stupid’, , 27 October 2015, Republican candidates Ted Cruz, Ben Carson, Jeb http://www.nationalreview.com/article/426089/hillar Bush, Carly Fiorina, Rick Santorum and Mike y-clinton-accuses-bernie-sanders-of- Huckabee all arrived at the Prestonwood Baptist sexism?target=topic&tid=3266’ Church, Texas to reach out to Evangelical voters and to prove their Christian bona fides. Cruz, the Ben Geman, ‘Big Oil Staggers toward Paris Climate hometown senator and crowd senator said that Talks, Potential Clinton White House’, National “religious liberty is under threat as never before in Journal, 31 October 2015, this country” and vowed that he would “not http://www.nationaljournal.com/s/91662/carson- surrender” on gay marriage to loud cheers. All the trump-are-the-anti-politicians?mref=scroll candidates played to the gallery with Ben Carson Charlie Cook, ‘In Search of the Anti-Politician’, saying that “it’s time for us to bring God back to our National Journal, 31 October 2015, country,” and Fiorina declaring that “people of faith http://www.nationaljournal.com/s/91662/carson- make better leaders”. Texas has long been a vital state for Republican fundraising because of its trump-are-the-anti-politicians concentration of oil and energy wealth. Abortion and Planned Parenthood were discussed extensively at 14 An ORF Publication

Editor: Uma Purushothaman Associate Editor: Sylvia Mishra

15 An ORF Publication