Peterborough City Council Five Year Housing Land Supply

1 April 2017 to 31 March 2022

Published 5 July 2017

Contents

1. Introduction – Page 1 2. The Five Year Requirement – Page 1 3. The Five Year Supply Calculation – Page 2 4. The Five Year Supply – Page 4 5. Calculating the Five Year Land Supply – Page 5

Appendix A Summary of the delivery rate of all sites – Page 7 Appendix B Windfall justification – Page 18

Peterborough City Council Five Year Housing Land Supply (April 2017 to March 2022)

1. Introduction 1.1 The National Planning Policy Framework (NPPF)1 requires local planning authorities to identify and update annually a supply of specific deliverable sites sufficient to provide five years worth of housing against their housing requirements. 1.2 This report sets out the five year land supply for Peterborough City Council between the period 1 April 2017 and 31 March 2022. 1.3 This report is based on the council’s Housing Monitoring Report2 (March 2017) which sets out all sites under construction, with full or outline planning permission at 31 March 2017. The Five Year Land Supply Report also includes sites identified as proposed allocations in the Further Draft Local Plan3 (December 2016). Appendix A of this report provides a summary of all available and deliverable sites and the estimated delivery rates during the five year period. 1.4 The National Planning Practice Guidance (NPPG)4 sets out the requirements for five year land supply and guidance on calculating the five year supply. This Five Year Land Supply report also takes into account the outcomes of a recent appeal decision (Appeal Ref: APP/J0540/W/16/3153303 Land off Uffington Road, , March 2017). 2. Five Year Requirement National Policy and Guidance

2.1 NPPG states that the starting point for calculating the five year requirement should be the adopted Local Plan. However, the NPPG goes on the explain that:

‘Considerable weight should be given to the housing requirement figures in adopted Local Plans, which have successfully passed through the examination process, unless significant new evidence comes to light. It should be borne in mind that evidence which dates back several years, such as that drawn from revoked regional strategies, may not adequately reflect current needs’

‘Where evidence in Local Plans has become outdated and policies in emerging plans are not yet capable of carrying sufficient weight, information provided in the latest full assessment of housing needs should be considered. But the weight given to these assessments should take account of the fact they have not been tested or moderated against relevant constraints’5

Peterborough Local Plan

2.2 In Peterborough the adopted Plan, in terms of housing requirement, is the Core Strategy6 Development Plan Document (DPD) which was adopted in February 2011. The Core Strategy housing need figure is based on the now revoked East of Regional Spatial Strategy 008) and therefore does not reflect current need. As required by national guidance, the five year requirement for Peterborough should be based on new evidence.

1 http://planningguidance.planningportal.gov.uk/wp-content/themes/planning-guidance/assets/NPPF.pdf paragraph 47 2 https://peterboroughcc.box.com/s/5iqgsc6fsl1huvjrk3bcgs37pwqb55su 3 https://peterboroughcc.box.com/s/q7hllhhh6kdgl7huxf6ex0ztr79z7o4m 4 NPPG (http://planningguidance.planningportal.gov.uk/) 5 NPPG ID: 3-030 6 https://peterboroughcc.box.com/s/v2rnscmcc7dfpfi4up63u58rqvry2agi

Page 1 Peterborough City Council Five Year Housing Land Supply (April 2017 to March 2022)

2.3 In 2015 the council began preparing a new Local Plan for Peterborough. Part of the evidence base for the Local Plan includes a Strategic Housing Market Assessment (SHMA) (October 2015), which identified an ‘Objectively Assessed Need’ (OAN) figure of 1,005 dwelling per year.

2.4 In January 2016 the council consulted on the Preliminary Draft version of the Local Plan which set out the overall housing requirement between 2011 and 2036 and a Further Draft version in December 2016 which identified the preferred sites to meet the growth targets. The Further Draft Plan highlighted that a further refresh of the OAN was likely ‘over winter 2016/17’ (para 5.19), to take into account the most up to date household projections. In March 2017 a partial update of the SHMA was published which identified a reduced OAN of 981 dwellings per year.

2.5 The emerging Local Plan growth target will be based on the latest OAN figure but also includes an additional 2,500 dwellings. This is because, as part of the Duty to Co-operate requirements, in 2013 the council entered into a memorandum of understanding with the Authorities that concluded Peterborough would accommodate an additional 2,500 dwellings taken from Cambridgeshire’s future housing need.

2.6 However, at this stage the policies in the emerging Local Plan is not yet capable of carrying sufficient weight. Instead, as set out in the NPPG, the latest OAN figure should be used for calculating the five year supply. This view is supported by the Planning Inspector at a recent appeal in the Peterborough administrative area. His decision concluded that:

“Adjustments in respect of externally generated need are ‘policy on’ considerations which are a matters to be tested through the Local Plan examination”7

2.7 Therefore, at this stage in the production of the Local Plan, for the purposes of calculating the five year land supply, the requirement will be based on the OAN of 981 dwellings per year.

2.8 The Proposed Submission version of the Local Plan is due to be published for public consultation in November 2017, with submission to government by March 2018 and Adoption due in autumn 2018. To support the Proposed Submission version of the Local Plan, and to provide evidence to demonstrate that the Local Plan target can be met, an updated Five Year Land supply will be published in November 2017. This will be based on the contents of the Local Plan at that time.

3 The Five Year Supply Calculation

3.1 As discussed above the starting point for calculating the five year supply is the latest OAN. The SHMA update (March 2017) identifies an OAN figure of 981 dwellings per year between 2011 and 2036. The basic five year requirement is 4,905 (981 x 5) dwellings between 1 April 2017 and 31 March 2022. 3.2 However, the Further Draft Local Plan introduced a new policy which acknowledges the creation of an independent, campus based university which would have an undergraduate population of 12,500 students by 2035. This would be a significant increase in the undergraduate population of the city, and a subsequent additional ‘housing need’ would likely be generated. Therefore an assessment of the Student Need was undertaken (Student Housing Needs Assessment, May 2017), which concluded a need for 40 additional dwellings per year over the period 1 April 2021 to 31 March 2036.

7 Appeal Ref: APP/J0540/W/16/3153303Land off Uffington Road, Barnack paragraph 50

Page 2 Peterborough City Council Five Year Housing Land Supply (April 2017 to March 2022)

3.3 Therefore, the OAN for Peterborough remains at 981 dwellings per year for the period 2011/12 to 2020/21 and then rises to 1,021 dwellings per year from 2021/22 to 2035/36. 3.4 As this five year land supply report covers the period 31 March 2017 to 1 April 2022 an additional 40 dwellings is required to be added to the baseline OAN figure to cover the additional student need in 2021/22. Therefor the five year requirement is 4,945. Table 1: basic five year requirement

See SHMA update (March a OAN 2011 to 2036 981 2017) Additional student requirement See Student Housing Needs b 40 2021/22 Assessment (May 2017) c Five Year Requirement 4,945 (a x 5) + b

3.5 To meet the five year land supply requirements account must be taken of the completions between 1 April 2011 and 31 March 2017 compared against the annual requirement of 981 dwellings per year to take account of any under supply. Table 2 shows the number of completions each year during this period. Table 2: Completions 2011 to 2017

Year 2011/12 2012/13 2013/14 2014/15 2015/16 2016/17 Total Net Completions 740 772 863 1342 920 1203 5,840 Five Year Requirement 981 981 981 981 981 981 5,886 Shortfall -241 -209 -118 +361 -61 +222 -46

3.6 Table 2 shows that between 2011 and 2017 a total of 5,840 dwellings have been completed (an average of 974 per year) this results in a shortfall of only 46 dwellings when compared the requirement for 5,886 dwellings during the six year period, which is less than one percent below the requirement. 3.7 The NPPG states that ‘Local planning authorities should aim to deal with any undersupply within the first five years of the plan period where possible’. This means that the shortfall of 46 dwellings should be added to the basic five year requirement of 4,945, rather than distributing the undersupply over the remaining plan period. Therefore the five year requirement increases to 4,991 dwellings. (Table 3 shows how this has been calculated). Table 3: Five Year requirement including backlog

Completions 2011 -2017 (six year d 5,840 see table 2 period) e Average completion rate per year 974 d ÷ 6 f Target completion rate 2011 to 2017 5,886 a x 6 g Shortfall 2011 to 2017 46 f - d Five Year Requirement 2017 to 2022 h 4,991 c + g including backlog

3.8 However, once the five year requirement has been calculated the NPPF then requires local authorities to identify a five percent buffer to ensure choice and competition in the market, and

Page 3 Peterborough City Council Five Year Housing Land Supply (April 2017 to March 2022)

where there has been a record of persistent under delivery of housing, this should be increased to twenty percent. It is made clear in the NPPF that this additional requirement is moved from further in the plan period and not an additional requirement for more housing. 3.9 As shown in Table 2, the number of completions has exceed the average requirement in two of the last three years. In addition, the overall shortfall over the full six year period is less than one percent. It is inconceivable that a district which has over supplied considerably over the past three years, and undersupplied over the long term by less than one percent, could be determined to be ‘persistently underdelivering’ Therefore an additional five percent should be added to the five year supply. This means that the five year requirement increases by 250 dwellings. Table 4: Five Year Land Supply Requirement including backlog and five percent buffer

i Five percent buffer 250 h x 5% Total five year land supply, 2017 to j 5,241 h + i 2022, including five percent buffer Average requirement 2017 to 2022 K 1,048 j ÷ 5 per year

3.10 To meet the requirement to demonstrate a five year supply of deliverable housing land, the requirement between 2017 and 2022 is a total of 5,241 (an average of 1,048 dwellings per year).

4. Five Year Supply

4.1 For a site to be considered deliverable the NPPF requires that the site: ‘should be available now, with a realistic prospect that housing will be delivered on the site within five years and in particular that development of the site is viable’. 4.2 A deliverable site includes:

 Sites under construction  Sites with full planning permission, but development has not started  Sites where there is a resolution to grant planning permission  Sites with outline planning permission  Sites allocated in the Peterborough Site Allocations DPD 8 (adopted April 2012) and the City Centre DPD9 (Adopted December 2014) where planning permission has not been granted. 4.3 Also the NPPG sates that: ‘If there are no significant constraints to overcome, such as infrastructure, sites not allocated within a development plan or without planning permission can be considered capable of being delivered within a five-year timeframe’.10

8 http://www.peterborough.gov.uk/pdf/env-plan-ldf-sa-adopted%20SADPD.pdf 9 http://consult.peterborough.gov.uk/file/2884570 10NPPG Paragraph: 031Reference ID: 3-031-20140306

Page 4 Peterborough City Council Five Year Housing Land Supply (April 2017 to March 2022)

4.4 Therefore the five year land supply includes sites not granted planning permission at 31 March 2017 but where there is evidence to justify the sites can be delivered or partly delivered within the five year period. This includes sites identified in the Further Draft Local Plan (December 2016). Many of the sites identified in the Further Draft Plan are existing allocations without planning permission (31 March 2017), but the Plan identifies sites for approximately 3,500 new dwellings and some of these have been included in the five year land supply. All sites have been assessed against detailed sites assessment criteria and the justification for the delivery of these sites is set out in the Local Plan Site Evidence Report (December 2016). However, such sites only contribute 1.7% of the total supply in the five year period. 4.5 The NPPF also states that ‘local planning authorities may make an allowance for windfall sites in the five year supply if they have compelling evidence that sites have consistently become available’.11 4.6 This evidence is explained in Appendix B and it demonstrates that windfall sites can reasonably be included in the council’s calculation of five year housing supply. 4.7 Appendix A provides a list of all sites included in the calculations, based on the results of the Housing Monitoring Report 2017. 5. Calculating the Five Year Supply

5.1 Table 5 provides a summary of the council’s five year supply of deliverable housing sites. The five year period runs between 1 April 2017 and 31 March 2022. Appendix A provides details of all sites and potential housing numbers that could be delivered each year; this is summarised below. Table: 5 Summary of all sites

Five Year Supply Total Site Category Yr 1 Yr 2 Yr 3 Yr 4 Yr 5 Five 2017/18 2018/19 2019/20 2020/21 2021/18 Year Dwellings with planning permission on allocated sites 617 932 814 604 547 3,514 Dwellings with planning permission on unallocated 109 151 118 106 120 604 large sites Dwellings with permission on unallocated small sites 108 81 47 30 10 276 Subtotal sites with permission 834 1,164 979 740 677 4,394 Dwellings from residual allocated sites 0 130 345 612 820 1,907 New sites identified in the Further Draft Local Plan 0 0 0 30 85 115 December 2016 Windfall allowance 0 0 0 50 50 100 Sub Total Site without Planning permission 0 130 345 692 955 2,122 Total 834 1,294 1,324 1,432 1,632 6,516

5.2 The council has identified land that is estimated, based on evidence set out in the following appendix, to be capable of delivering 6,516 dwellings between 1 April 2017 and 31 March 2022. The five year requirement during this period is 5,241. The council can therefore demonstrate 1,275 additional dwellings over the five year requirement. Table 6 shows that the council can demonstrate a five year supply of housing land of 6.22 years.

11 NPPF Paragraph 48

Page 5 Peterborough City Council Five Year Housing Land Supply (April 2017 to March 2022)

Table 6: Five Year Supply

l Estimate of Five Year Land 6,516 See Table 5 supply 2017 to 2022 m Total Five Year Land Supply 6.22 l ÷ k

5.3 This report uses a very conservative approach to calculating supply, including:

 Applying a buffer to the backlog  Using present year as ‘year one’  A very conservative windfall allowance  A very small allowance arising from the emerging Local Plan 5.4 Despite the above, the council can comfortably demonstrate a five year supply, and exceeds it by over a year’s supply

Page 6 Peterborough City Council Five Year Housing Land Supply (April 2017 to March 2022)

Appendix A

Summary of all sites

Page 7 Peterborough City Council Five Year Housing Land Supply (April 2017 to March 2022)

Planning Type of Parish* Ward* Name and address of Total Total Total Status Number of 2017/18 2018/19 2019/20 2020/21 2021/22 application permissio site** residual number number residual Yr 1* Yr 2* Yr 3* Yr 4* Yr 5* ref/DPD policy n number of of of which are ref (Allocatio dwellings dwellings dwellings expected to n, permitted/ built on on site* be Outline, allocated* site * completed Reserved in 5 years Matters, Full) Comments

Formally Identified 1 2 3 4 5 Extant Planning Permissions on Allocated Sites 3,514 617 932 814 604 547 Extant Planning Permissions on Unallocated Large Sites 604 109 151 118 106 120 Extant Planning Permissions on Unallocated Small Sites 276 108 81 47 30 10 Residual allocated sites 1,907 0 130 345 612 820 New sites in Local Plan Further Draft 2016 115 0 0 0 30 85 A justified windfall element (139 per year) 100 50 50

Total 6,516 834 1,294 1,324 1,432 1,632

Hampton - Remaining dwellings still to be built at Hampton. This is based on the original outline application. Remaining dwelling figure differs from figure in Local Plan total for Hampton as individual tranches 210 with permission are identified as separate sites in the in five year land supply report. The delivery rates are based on results of developers survey Residual 4000 OO NOT HHM Hampton (Residual Sites) 2349 0 2349 O 0 0 50 80 80 from O&H and Persimmon. Paston Reserve - Remaining dwellings still to be built based on the 210 original outline application. REM Application expected soon for 452 91/00001/OUT OO NOT GUN land at Paston Reserve 963 0 963 O 50 80 80 dwellings. Based on previous delivery rates of 84 and 94 dwellings. Hampton Gardens: Approved in September 2016. Delivery rates 540 16/00722/REM FR NOT HHM Hampton Gardens 823 0 823 UC 60 120 120 120 120 confirmed in e-mail from Persimmon Homes on 19 June 2017 14/02165/OUT OO NOT HMV Hampton Heights 350 0 350 O 200 50 50 50 50 South Remaining dwellings still to be built based on the land south of Oakdale 298 original outline application. Delivery rate confirmed see e-mail from 03/00842/OUT OO NOT STS Avenue (Residual) 298 0 298 O 50 80 80 60 28 Persimmon homes 19 June 2017 Quays: Development started in December 2016. Application 16/02385/FUL submitted Dec 2016 for 358 dwellings (an additional 78 280 Fletton Quays, land at East dwellings to that permitted See Local Plan site). Peterborough Iinvestemnt 16/01314/REM FR NOT FLS Station Road 280 0 280 UC 50 174 56 Partnership (PIP) sites, delivery rates confirmed at meeting 30 May 2017 Hospital Site remaining outline permission. Zone A Primary school opened November 2016. Zone C UC 2 dwellings outstanding at 31 March Site of former of 148 2017. Zone D UC 43 dwellings outstanding at 31 March 2017. Zone E NS Peterborough District 76 Dwellings outstanding at 31 March 2017. Zone F UC 49 Dwellings 14/00536/OUT OO NOT CEN Hospital 168 0 168 O 20 50 50 28 outstanding at 31 March 2017. Total of 168 dwellings remaining on site. land to the south of 75 15/01537/REM FR NOT STS Oakdale Avenue 150 75 75 UC 40 35 94 15/00411/REM FR HHV HMV land west of London Road 130 36 94 UC 30 40 24 land at Coriander Drive, 93 14/02223/REM FR NOT HMV Hampton Vale 125 32 93 UC 50 43

Page 8 Peterborough City Council Five Year Housing Land Supply (April 2017 to March 2022)

North Westgate 100 15/01041/OUT OO NOT CEN Development Area 100 0 100 O 50 50 rear 207 - 239 Outline application for 98 bed care home and 15 dwellings. 90 13/01298/OUT OO NOT STS Peterborough Road 98 0 98 O 30 30 30 15/02019/REM approved 3 June 2017 for 15 dwellings. land west of Sandpit Road 91 16/00160/OUT OO THO ETN Thorney 91 0 91 O 30 30 31 land off London Road, 79 14/01600/FUL FF NOT HHM Hempsted 79 0 79 UC 40 39 Zone E former PDH Thorpe 76 16/02130/REM FR NOT CEN Road 76 0 76 NS 16 30 30 13/01851/FUL FF NOT HHM Tranche NC2 Hempsted 69 67 2 UC 2 2 11/01739/FUL FF NOT PSW Windsor Avenue 69 67 2 UC 0 land south of Oakdale 65 03/00842/OUT OO NOT STS Avenue (Residual) 65 0 65 O 25 40 59 16/02059/REM FR NOT STS land s of Oakdale Avenue 59 0 59 NS 35 24 Northern section of East of 9 03/00048/REM FR ORW ORW England Showground 58 49 9 UC 9 15/01234/REM FR THO ETN south of Woburn Drive 56 17 39 UC 39 20 19 15/01656/REM FR NOT CEN Zone F, former PDH 56 7 49 UC 49 20 20 9 land at Guilsborough Road 55 14/00857/R4OUTOO EYE ETN 55 0 55 O 20 35 rear 197 Peterborough 14 update from Persimmon Homes 19 June 2017 15/00893/REM FR NOT STS Road 47 33 14 UC 14 land north of Brinkburn 45 16/01148/FUL FF HHV HMV Close, Hampton Centre 45 0 45 NS 45 16/00816/REM FR NOT CEN Zone D former PDH 43 0 43 UC 43 15 28

16/00722/REM FR NOT HHM Hampton Gardens (AH) 43 0 43 NS 43 20 23 update from Persimmon Homes 19 June 2017

14/00206/FUL FF NBF ETN west of Williams Close 42 0 42 NS 42 20 22 Not started at 31 March, but latest information indicates now UC 16/01796/R4FUL4F BRE BRT land at Bretton Woods 40 0 40 NS 40 20 20 0 15/01066/REM FR NOT CEN NCP car park, Brook Street 39 0 39 NS land south of Oakdale 3 14/01566/FUL FF NOT STS Avenue 33 30 3 UC 3 28 16/01796/R4FUL4F BRE BRT land at Bretton Woods (AH) 28 0 28 NS 10 18 south of Woburn Drive 20 15/01234/REM FR THO ETN (AH) 24 4 20 UC 14 6 St Nicholas Reception 22 07/00216/FUL FF NOT CEN Home, South Parade 24 2 22 UC 12 10 Bushfield House Orton 24 16/00631/PRIORFP ORW ORW Goldhay 24 0 24 UC 24 07/00514/FUL FF NOT NTH 659 Lincoln Road 23 0 23 UC 0 Mega Car Centre Midland 20 13/00539/FUL ff NOT CEN Road 20 0 20 NS 10 10 rear 197 Peterborough 12 Information from Persimmon Homes 19 June 2017 15/00893/REM FR NOT STS Road 20 8 12 UC 12

Page 9 Peterborough City Council Five Year Housing Land Supply (April 2017 to March 2022)

Manor Farmyard High 19 07/00762/FUL ff GLI GLC Street 19 0 19 UC 19 16/00626/FUL FF NOT EAS Potters Way Fengate 18 0 18 NS 18 18 land south of Northam 17 16/00506/REM FR EYE ETN Close 17 0 17 NS 5 12 land off London Road 16 14/01600/FUL FF NOT HHM Hempsted (AH) 16 0 16 UC 6 10 16/01656/OUT OO NOT HHM land off Columbus Road 15 0 15 NS 15 15 rear 207 239 Peterborough 15 15/02019/REM FR NOT STS Road 15 0 15 NS 5 10 14 16/01992/REM FR NOT STS land s of Constantine Drive 14 0 14 NS 14 13/01627/OUT OO THO ETN Unit 2, 61 Station Road 14 0 14 O 14 7 7 06/00948/REM FR NBF ETN adj Village Hall 13 0 13 UC 13 13 Glebe Farm, Peterborough 12 16/00902/FUL FF NOT STS Road 12 0 12 NS 12 land east of Fountains 11 15/01202/FUL FF EYE ETN Place 11 0 11 UC 11 13/00136/FUL FF NOT FLW 143 Oundle Road 10 0 10 UC 10 10 11/00073/FUL FF NOT FLW 38 Elm Street 10 0 10 UC 10 10 14/02028/FUL FF EYE ETN rear 17 Easby Rise 9 0 9 NS 9 9 Mega Car Centre Midland 9 13/00539/FUL FF NOT CEN Road 9 0 9 NS 9 10/00047/FUL FF NOT EAS 105 Oxney Road 8 0 8 UC 8 4 4 6 11/00308/FUL FF NOT GUN land south of Aster Drive 8 2 6 UC 6 land south of Northam 8 16/00506/REM FR EYE ETN Close 8 0 8 NS 8 15/1651/REM fr NOT CEN Zone C former PDH 7 5 2 UC 2 2 Mill Garage The Causeway 7 03/00566/FUL FF THO ETN Thorney 7 0 7 UC 7 15/00851/FUL FF WIT WIT Depot, Church Road 6 0 6 NS 6 3 3

Land to rear of 1372 and 3 1374 Lincoln Road, 06/02020/FUL FF NOT WER Werrington, Peterborough 5 2 3 UC 3 09/01035/FUL FF EYE ETN 78 High Street 5 0 5 UC 5 5 Hempsted Opportunity 3 14/00195/REM FR NOT HHM Area 4 1 3 UC 3 land at Forrest Drive 4 16/01048/FUL FF NOT HHM Hempsted 4 0 4 UC 2 2 4 12/00145/FUL FF EYE ETN land rear 3 Road 4 0 4 UC 4 4 14/02095/FUL FF EYE ETN 7 Green Road, Eye Green 4 0 4 NS 4 land south of Eyebury 1 12/00979/FUL FF EYE ETN Cottages 1 0 1 UC 1 09/00774/REM FR NOT HHM Tranche NT5b 3 1 2 UC 2 2 P.4.73 MAX GLC Land at Blind Lane 3 0 3 UC 0

Page 10 Peterborough City Council Five Year Housing Land Supply (April 2017 to March 2022)

Church Farm, 7 Church 3 10/00508/FUL FF NOR GLC Street 3 0 3 UC 3 10/00682/FUL FF THO ETN land off Sandpit Road 3 1 2 UC 2 2 Church House 5 Bridge End 3 04/00440/FUL FF WAN WIT Wansford 3 0 3 UC 3 10/01647/REM FR NOT CEN rear 45 Thorpe Road 2 0 2 UC 0 07/00575/FUL FF NOT EAS 79 Dickens Street 2 0 2 UC 2 2 Land off Misterton Orton 1 05/00249/FUL FF ORW ORW Goldhay 2 1 1 UC 1 04/00684/FUL FF NOT PAR 15 St Martins St 2 0 2 UC 2 2 09/00755/FUL FF CAS GLC 8 High Street 2 1 1 UC 1 1 land south of the former 2 16/00829/FUL FF GLI GLC Crown PH 2 0 2 NS 2 13/00533/FUL FF NOT CEN adj 54 Aldermans Drive 1 0 1 NS 1 1 09/01024/FUL FF NOT EAS 271-273 Eastfield Road 1 0 1 UC 1 1 16/00895/REM FR HHV HMV Plot B, Winsor Crescent 1 0 1 NS 1 1 16/01492/REM FR HHV HMV Plot G, Winsor Crescent 1 0 1 UC 1 1 16/01115/REM FR HHV HMV Plot K Winsor Crescent 1 0 1 NS 1 1 16/00242/REM FR HHV HMV Plot L, Winsor Crescent 1 0 1 UC 1 1 land north of 68 Clarence 1 16/02252/FUL FF NOT NTH Road 1 0 1 NS 1 Land adjacent and to the south of 277 Clarence 1 Road, Millfield, 07/00105/FUL FF NOT NTH Peterborough 1 0 1 UC 1 0 11/01002/FUL FF ORL ORL rear of 28 Royston Avenue 1 0 1 UC 11/01785/FUL FF NOT WES 222 Thorpe Road 1 0 1 UC 1 1 rear 19-21 Peterborough 1 13/01565/FUL FF CAS GLC Road 1 0 1 UC 1 1 06/01876/FUL FF PEA GLC adj 5 Thorney Road 1 0 1 UC 1 05/01775/FUL FF SMW BAR Corbar First Drift 1 0 1 UC 0 Briggs Farm, Willow Hall 4 04/01999/FUL FF THO ETN Lane 4 0 4 UC 4 Extant Planning Permissions on Allocated Sites 7379 441 6938 3514 617 932 814 604 547

land east of Alwalton Hill 320 Information provided at a meeting on 19 June 2017 15/01431/OUT OO NOT HMV (Gateway Peterborough) 610 0 610 O 80 80 80 80 land west of Uffington 40 15/01840/OUT OO BAR BAR Road 80 0 80 O 40 north of Matley Primary 54 14/00575/R4FULFF ORW ORW School 54 0 54 UC 20 34 Remus House Coltsfoot 30 16/01463/PRIORFP NOT FLW Drive 30 0 30 NS 30 15/00830/FUL FF NOT CEN 88 Lincoln Road 26 0 26 NS 26 26 16/00965/PRIORFP NOT CEN 117 Park Road 24 0 24 UC 24 24

Page 11 Peterborough City Council Five Year Housing Land Supply (April 2017 to March 2022)

Johnston Publishing Oundle 17 14/02012/FUL FF NOT FLW Road 60 43 17 UC 17 Car park Hampton Court 16 16/02184/R4FULFF NOT RAV Westwood 16 0 16 NS 16 Varity House, Vicarage 14 16/00057/FUL FF NOT EAS Farm Road 14 0 14 NS 14 Coneygree Lodge 14 13/00769/FUL FF NOT FLS Coneygree Road 14 0 14 UC 14 Cranmore House, Thorney 14 14/01122/OUT OO EYE ETN Road 14 0 14 O 6 8 Guthrie House Rightwell 13 14/01781/FUL FF BRE BRT East 13 0 13 UC 13 Manor House 57 Lincoln 11 17/00091/PRIORFP NOT CEN Road 11 0 11 NS 11 12/01926/FUL FF THO ETN rear Rose and Crown PH 11 0 11 UC 11 7 4 Extant Planning Permissions on Unallocated Large Sites 604 109 151 118 106 120

Johnston Publishing Oundle 9 14/02012/FUL FF NOT FLW Road 26 17 9 UC 9 16/02291/REM FR THO ETN adj 39 Station Road 9 0 9 NS 9 4 5 15/00684/FUL FF NOT CEN 28-30 Priestgate 8 0 8 UC 8 8 8 16/01432/PRIORFP NOT CEN Lincoln Court, Lincoln Road 8 0 8 UC 8 The Heron PH, Southfields 0 15/1515/FUL FF NOT FLS Drive 8 0 8 NS Application 17/00768/FUL 6 dwellings permitted June 2017. figure 6 16/00481/FUL FF NOT FLW 48 Jubilee Street 8 0 8 NS 6 updated to take account of new information 16/00671/FUL FF NOT PAR 3-7 Oxford Road 8 0 8 NS 8 8 8 15/00059/FUL FF GLI GLC 30B Lincoln Road Glinton 8 0 8 NS 4 4 REM application submitted 28 Jan 2017. Decision pending. former Coal Yard River 6 13/00742/OUT OO NOT CEN Lane 7 0 7 O 2 4 17/00157/REM. 6 dwellings New Priestgate House, 57 7 15/00810/FUL FF NOT CEN Priestgate 7 0 7 NS 7 0 14/02167/OUT OO NOT CEN Great Northern Hotel Site 6 0 6 O 16/02010/PRIORFP NOT CEN 85 Park Road 6 0 6 UC 6 6 16 to 18 Manor House 6 16/01800/FUL FF NOT CEN Street 6 0 6 UC 6 15/00653/OUT OO NOT FLW 1 Grove Street 6 0 6 O 6 3 3 rear of 44-90 New Road 5 15/00265/FUL ff NOT FLW Woodston 45 40 5 UC 5 Guthrie House, Rightwell 5 13/01484/PRIORFP BRE BRT East 5 0 5 UC 5 15/02204/OUT OO NOT EAS 83 Oxney Road 5 0 5 O 5 5 Scotts Farm, Welmore 5 14/02127/FUL FF GLI GLC Road 5 0 5 NS 2 3

Page 12 Peterborough City Council Five Year Housing Land Supply (April 2017 to March 2022)

5 15/00895/FUL FF GLI GLC Scotts Farm Welmore Farm 5 0 5 UC 2 3 4 15/00031/FUL ff NOT CEN Genevas, 43 Lincoln Road 4 0 4 NS 4 16/00712/PRIORFP NOT CEN 87 Park Road 4 0 4 UC 4 4 16/00869/PRIORFP NOT CEN 17 Manor House Street 4 0 4 NS 4 4 16/01549/PRIORFP NOT CEN 84 Lincoln Road 4 0 4 UC 4 4 16/00001/FUL FF NOT EAS Lyndale, Palmers Road 4 0 4 NS 4 4 garage site rear of 116 New 4 16/01801/OUT OO NOT FLW Road 4 0 4 O 4 16/01884/FUL FF NOT FLW 126 London Road 4 0 4 NS 4 4 Highfields, 516 Oundle 4 15/00175/FUL FF ORL ORL Road 4 0 4 UC 2 2 15/01757/FUL FF NOT PAR 12 Stone Lane Millfield 4 0 4 NS 4 4 land n of 2 Road 4 16/01458/R4OUTOO NOT PSW Walton 4 0 4 O 4 16/01162/FUL FF EYE ETN land at Moores Lane 4 0 4 NS 4 4 14/01990/FUL FF BRE BRT adj 7-8 Bretton Green 3 0 3 NS 0 15/01778/FUL FF NOT CEN rear 111 Park Road 3 0 3 UC 3 3 15/01874/FUL FF NOT CEN rear of 44 Cowgate 3 0 3 NS 3 3 15/01828/FUL FF NOT CEN 16 Priestgate 3 0 3 NS 3 3 15/00002/FUL FF NOT EAS 285 Eastfield Road 3 0 3 NS 3 3 14/02246/FUL FF NOT EAS 12 Star Road 3 0 3 UC 3 3 Woodston Service Station 3 15/00359/REM FR NOT FLW Oundle Road 3 0 3 NS 3 garage site, Brewsters 3 15/00159/FUL FF NOT FLW Avenue 3 0 3 NS 3 16/01996/FUL FF NOT NTH 43 - 45 Burmer Road 3 0 3 UC 3 3 14/02171/FUL FF ORL ORL 490 Oundle Road 3 0 3 UC 3 3 13/01663/FUL FF AIL GLC 5 Station Road 3 0 3 NS 3 3 16/01270/FUL FF NOT CEN 19 Taverners Road 2 0 2 NS 2 2 16/00658/PRIORFP NOT CEN 60 Broadway 2 0 2 NS 2 2 14/00235/FUL FF NOT DOG north of 160 Eye Road 2 0 2 UC 2 2 16/00156/FUL FF NOT FLS 134 High Street Fletton 2 0 2 UC 2 2 14/02218/FUL FF NOT FLS 70 Church Street 2 0 2 NS 2 2 15/01591/FUL FF NOT FLS 35 Glebe Road Fletton 2 0 2 NS 2 2 14/00373/FUL FF NOT FLW 318-320 Oundle Road 2 0 2 UC 2 2 2 13/01564/FUL FF NOT FLW 46 Jubilee Street Woodston 2 0 2 UC 2 2 16/00564/FUL FF NOT FLW The Rectory Oundle Road 2 0 2 UC 2 14/01301/FUL FF NOT GUN 70-80 Storrington Way 2 0 2 NS 0 2 12/01735/FUL FF NOT NTH rear 539 Gladstone Street 2 0 2 UC 2 16/00673/FUL FF ORW ORW Fairfield, Oundle Road 2 0 2 NS 2 2

Peterborough City Lawn 2 15/00415/FUL FF NOT PAR Tennis Club, Park Crescent 2 0 2 UC 2 15/00393/FUL FF NOT PAR 32-34 Dogsthorpe Road 2 0 2 NS 2 2

Page 13 Peterborough City Council Five Year Housing Land Supply (April 2017 to March 2022)

14/01645/FUL FF NOT PSW adj 5 Paston Lane 2 0 2 NS 2 2 Rainbow Court Paston 2 13/01486/FUL FF NOT PSW Ridings 2 0 2 NS 2 14/01058/FUL FF NOT PSW 44 Whitwell Paston 2 0 2 NS 0 former garage site rear the 2 15/00626/FUL FF NOT PSW flats Paston Ridings 2 0 2 NS 2 15/00738/FUL FF NOT PSW 983 Lincoln Road 2 0 2 NS 2 2 16/1554/FUL FF NOT PSW 1 Warwick Road 2 0 2 UC 2 2 14/01397/FUL FA CAS GLC 35A Peterborough Road 2 0 2 NS 2 2 Silver Heron Developments, Suttons 2 16/01312/FUL FF DEG GLC Lane 2 0 2 NS 2 16/01567/OUT OO EYE ETN 73 High Street 2 0 2 O 2 2 16/00390/FUL FF GLI GLC 19 Wellmore Road 2 0 2 NS 2 2 16/01396/FUL FF GLI GLC 16 Rectory Lane, Glinton 2 0 2 NS 2 2 East of Manor Farm, Nene 2 16/00349/FUL FF SUT WIT Way 2 0 2 NS 2 15/01558/FUL FF THO ETN rear Rose and Crown PH 2 0 2 UC 2 2 White Post Farm, White 2 14/00572/FUL FF NBF ETN Post Road South 2 0 2 NS 2 Glasshouse Farm, Dairy 1 14/02217/FUL FF THO ETN Drove 2 1 1 UC 1 1 13/00930/FUL FF NOT STS 54-58 Fletton High Street 3 2 1 UC 1 land at junction of Millstone Lane and School 1 14/02244/FUL FF BAR BAR Road 3 2 1 UC 1 16/01520/FUL FF HEL BAR land adj 40 West Street 1 0 1 UC 1 1 13/01423/REM FR NBF ETN Long Meadow Farm 1 0 1 NS 1 1 16/00467/FUL FF NOT CEN adj 51 Lincoln Road 1 0 1 NS 1 1 16/01874/|PRIORFP NOT CEN 32 Cowgate 1 0 1 NS 1 1 rear 32 and 34 Aldermans 1 17/00031/FUL FF NOT CEN Drive 1 0 1 NS 1 16/01292/FUL FF NOT EAS 34 Cavendish Street 1 0 1 NS 1 1 15/01867/FUL FF NOT EAS 31 Cavendish Street 1 0 1 NS 1 1 16/01088/FUL FF NOT EAS 44 Ashcroft Gardens 1 0 1 NS 1 1 16/00545/FUL FF NOT FLS 112A Fletton Avenue 1 0 1 NS 1 1 17/00165/FUL FF NOT FLS adj 108 Fletton Avenue 1 0 1 NS 1 1 rear 60 North Street 1 14/01784/FUL FF NOT FLS Stanground 1 0 1 UC 1 14/02071/FUL FF NOT FLS adj 3 Copper Beech Way 1 0 1 UC 1 1 16/02002/FUL FF NOT FLS 15 St Johns Road Fletton 1 0 1 O 1 1 former stable block Orton 1 16/00929/FUL FF NOT FLW Avenue 1 0 1 NS 1 land adj to 103 Burmer 1 16/00940/FUL FF NOT NTH Road 1 0 1 UC 1 1 15/00741/OUT OO NOT NTH rear 162-164 Crown Street 1 0 1 O 1 16/00898/FUL FF NOT NTH adj Clarence Road 1 0 1 NS 1 1

Page 14 Peterborough City Council Five Year Housing Land Supply (April 2017 to March 2022)

0 16/00670/FUL FF NOT NTH rear 47-51 Scotney Street 1 0 1 NS 14/01034/REM FR NOT NTH 11 Rock Road 1 0 1 NS 1 1 12/00959/FUL FF NOT NTH adj 170 Alexandra Road 1 0 1 UC 1 1 12/01151/FUL FF NOT NTH 160 Alexander Road 1 0 1 UC 0 15/00480/PRIORFP NOT NTH 212 Lincoln Road 1 0 1 UC 1 1 16/01833/FUL FF NOT NTH 9 Francis Gardens 1 0 1 NS 1 1 Highfields, 516 Oundle 1 16/00882/FUL FF ORL ORL Road 1 0 1 UC 1 16/02214/PRIORFP NOT PAR 99 St Pauls Road 1 0 1 NS 1 1 15/00077/OUT OO NOT PSW 200 Fulbridge Road 1 0 1 O 1 1 14/01148/FUL FF NOT PSW 81 Churchfield Road 1 0 1 NS 1 1 Cranford Drive Boiler 1 16/01514/FUL FF NOT RAV House 1 0 1 NS 1 14/01553/FUL FF NOT RAV Building 5 Saville Road 1 0 1 NS 1 1 land north of 11 Stanford 1 14/01871/OUT OO NOT RAV Walk 1 0 1 O 1 The Bungalow, Buntings 1 16/00342/OUT OO NOT STS Lane 1 0 1 NS 1 16/01135/OUT OO NOT STS 293 Peterborough Road 1 0 1 O 1 1 16/00789/FUL FF NOT WER 46 Church Street 1 0 1 NS 1 1 14/01368/FUL FF NOT WER 1302 Lincoln Road 1 0 1 NS 1 1 1 16/02069/FUL FF BAR BAR former Methodist Church 1 0 1 NS 1 rear of 12 Church Hill, 1 15/00648/REM FR CAS GLC Castor 1 0 1 UC 1 14/01463/FUL FF DEG GLC rear of 43 Riverside 1 0 1 UC 1 1 Extant Planning Permissions on Unallocated Small Sites 364 302 276 108 81 47 30 10

Council is minded to grant consent for Great Haddon, subject to legal 100 SA1.4 ORH Great Haddon 5,300 0 0 0 0 0 50 50 agreements for 5,300. Delivery rates based on meeting with O&H. Pre application discussion with developer. SEA screening report 100 SA1.5 PAS Norwood 1,800 0 0 0 0 0 50 50 submitted. Numbers reduced from 2,300 in Core Strategy Part of wider regeneration plans for this site. Latest discussions with 50 DC04 ORW Orton 250 0 0 0 0 0 0 50 council indicate development in 2022 and later. Part of wider regeneration plan of Werrington centre. Includes 50 DC05 WRN Werrington 100 0 0 0 0 0 20 30 development around District Centre not just within. Application submitted for 87 dwellings 17/00011/R4FUL. Permitted Former John Mansfield 87 SA3.24 DOG School Site 87 0 0 0 30 30 27 0 Subject to legal agreement 5 April 2017

30 SA3.27 FLE North Of Fletton Avenue 30 0 0 0 0 0 30 0

Application submitted (15/01106/OUT). Approved April 2016 subject to 130 Land south of Oundle S106 agreement. Based on figures discussed at pre application meeting. SA3.30 ORW Road, Alwalton 130 0 0 0 0 30 50 50

SA3.36 STC Stanground Stables 35 0 0 35 0 0 35 0 0 Application for 35 dwellings (16/02416/OUT) subject to legal agreement Land west of Remaining part of site (65 dwellings to be delivered see application Peterborough Road 60 16/00505/FUL) SA3.40 STC (part) 60 0 0 0 0 0 30 30

Page 15 Peterborough City Council Five Year Housing Land Supply (April 2017 to March 2022)

Application submitted for 116 dwellings 17/00013/R4FUL. Permitted John Mansfield School 90 SA3.41 DOG remote playing fields 116 0 0 0 0 30 30 30 Subject to legal agreement 5 April 2017 Former Freemans Site, Council owned site. Not expected to deliver until year 6 to 10 of the plan 0 SA3.43 RAV Ivatt Way 460 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 period. Application submitted for 190 dwellings. Figure in Further Draft Local Plan updated to reflect that 1ha of employment land will form part of site. 70 Re assessed as part of Local Plan Process. Application due to go to SA6.10 WIT GLW Land off Lawrence Road 190 0 0 0 0 10 30 30 planning committee in July or September 2017 CC3.4 CEN Wheel Yard 25 0 0 15 0 0 0 0 15 This figure is in addition to that already granted planning permission. Site North Westgate 200 CC3.5 CEN Opportunity Area 200 0 0 0 0 50 50 100 in multiple ownerships. To be brought forward by PIP See developers survey and information provided by PIP. Majority of site Northminster Opportunity 50 CC3.6 CEN Area 150 0 0 0 0 0 0 50 owned by Council Station West Opportunity Network Rail land. Part of wider regeneration plans for the area. Based on 200 CC4.2 WES Area 200 0 0 0 0 50 50 100 discussion with Network Rail Station East Opportunity 250 CC4.3 CEN Area 400 0 0 0 0 50 100 100

Riveragte 60 60 0 0 0 0 60 Includes former Bridge Street Police Station. CC6 FLE Riverside South 200 0 0 150 0 0 50 50 50

CC6.2 Fletton Quays 100 This is in additional to that granted planning permission. (FLS004O) Opportunity Area (Part) 100 0 100 0 0 0 CC6.3 WES Railworld North 50 0 0 25 0 0 0 0 25 CC7.1 CEN Bishops Road 25 0 0 25 0 0 10 15 0 CC9.2 EAS Wellington St Car Park 40 0 0 0 0 0 0 CC9.1 EAS Dickens St Car Park 30 0 0 30 0 0 0 30 0 Residual allocated sites 10,038 0 1,907 0 130 345 612 820

New sites in Local Plan Further Draft 2016 FLS003M Pleasure Fair Meadow Car 75 0 0 0 0 0 0 Park Riverside North Policy 75 0 0 0 0 0 0 Area This site has been assessed as suitable for future housing development. However, the site is currently still in use as an NHS care centre. Still waiting for information from NHS to confirm likely time scales and delivery rates. Therefore at this stage cannot be included in the five year HMV002H Gloucester Centre 100 0 0 0 0 0 0 land supply calculation. This site forms part of a wider master plan for the ORW002H East of England Show Showground. See Policy LP30. Figures based on discussion with Strutt (LP20) Ground 400 80 0 0 0 30 50 and Parker in July and October 2016. HHM002H Hempsted Parcel - NNC2 10 0 0 0 0 0 Site granted Planning permission 16/01656/OUT HHM003H Hempsted - Parcel NC5 10 0 0 0 0 0 0 Hempsted Parcel - NC1, HHM004H NC3, NC4 65 35 0 0 0 0 35 Land to the South of THO005 Thorney 50 0 0 0 0 0 0 Further Draft Local Plan identifies site for 250 dwellings. Over 400 objections recivied during consulataion period. Therefore there this site EYE017H Part of Tanholt Farm, Eye 250 0 0 0 0 0 0 cannot be considered deliverable within the five year period at this stage.

Page 16 Peterborough City Council Five Year Housing Land Supply (April 2017 to March 2022)

Further Draft Local Plan identifies a new Settlement proposed to the North of Castor and . Significant objections received as part of Local Land North of Castor and Plan consultation process. Therefore there this site cannot be considered AIL002U Ailsworth 2,500 0 0 0 0 0 0 deliverable within the five year period at this stage. Further Draft Local Plan identifies a site in adajcent to existsing allocataion. A number of objections recivied as part of Local Plan Land off Broad Wheel consulataion. Therefore there this site cannot be considered deliverable HEL006H Road, Helpston 60 0 0 0 0 0 0 within the five year period at this stage. Total 3445 115 0 0 0 30 85

Page 17 Peterborough City Council Five Year Housing Land Supply (April 2017 to March 2022)

Appendix B – Windfall Justification The housing supply can also include an assumption for future windfall development. Paragraph 48 of the NPPF states that “local planning authorities may make an allowance for windfall sites in the five-year supply if they have compelling evidence that such sites have consistently become available in the local area and will continue to provide a reliable source of supply”. The definition of windfalls in the Glossary to the NPPF states they are sites which have not been specifically identified as available in the Local Plan process. It also says they are “normally” previously-developed sites, but the definition does not exclude greenfield sites from being windfalls. Therefore a windfall is any site that produces dwellings, but has not been identified in the Local Plan process. The following table sets out the number of windfall dwellings that have been delivered each year since 1 April 2001 to 31 March 2017. During the course of this 16 year period four different statutory development plans have been in place (as far as housing allocations are concerned):

 The 1996 Peterborough Local Plan (until 20 July 2005)  The 2005 Peterborough Local Plan (First Replacement) (from 20 July 2005 to 18 April 2012) and  The Peterborough Site Allocations DPD (from 18 April 2012)  The City Centre DPD (from 14 December 2014). The table shows that the number of windfall dwellings that are delivered falls significantly in the years following the adoption of a new plan, and then tends to rise in the years that follow. Year ending Proportion Not windfall Windfall Total for year 31 March Windfall 2002 462 175 637 27.47 2003 538 187 725 25.79 2004 495 88 583 15.09 2005 622 265 887 29.88 2006 854 7 861 0.81 2007 1,231 34 1,265 2.69 2008 769 230 999 23.02 2009 899 150 1,049 14.30 2010 935 190 1,125 16.89 2011 517 196 713 27.49 2012 548 219 767 28.55 2013 809 8 817 0.98 2014 841 27 868 3.11 2015 1,180 162 1342 12.07 2016 766 154 920 16.74 2017 485 718 1203 59.68 Total 11,466 2,810 14,761

There has been a total of 2,810 windfall dwellings delivered over the course of these 16 years. The 2001 to 2017 time period covers more than one economic cycle, including periods of both strong and weak housing markets. It therefore provides a reliable and realistic basis for making an assumption about the delivery of windfall dwellings in the future.

Page 18 Peterborough City Council Five Year Housing Land Supply (April 2017 to March 2022)

The average windfall allowance = 176 dwellings per year (2,810 ÷ 16 years). However, the average windfall figure of 176 dwellings has not been used in calculating the windfall allowance for this five year land supply report. This is because the windfall allowance for 2016/2017 totalled 718 dwellings, representing almost 60% of total new homes built that year, and significantly higher than at any point over the last 16 years (the second highest windfall allowance was in 2005 with 265 windfall completions representing approximately 30% of total completions that year). The windfall allowance for 2016/17 is significantly higher than in previous years as it is made up of 358 office conversions to residential, through prior approval notifications. Whilst office conversion to residential is likely to continue to form part of the windfall allowance, it is not a trend that is expected to continue over the next five years. To date a total of 575 prior approval from office conversions have been completed since prior approval process was introduced in 2013. Prior Approval Office Conversion to Residential

Year ending 31 Prior Approvals March completed 2015 92 2016 125 2017 358 Total 575

At 31 March a total of 125 dwellings had successfully obtained prior approval for office to residential conversion and have three years to complete. Peterborough had a high proportion of vacant office stock particularly in the city centre, but the supply of suitable buildings is reducing. The windfall allowances for 2016/17 is seen as an anomaly and if applied to the five year land supply would skew the average windfall allowance. A figure of 139 dwellings per year has been used to estimate the windfall allowance each year. Over five years, windfalls arising at an average of 139 dwellings per year would deliver an additional 695 dwellings which can be added into the housing supply for the five year period. However, the information in Appendix A shows that at 31 March 2017 there are 880 dwellings on unallocated sites which already have planning permission. As these can be classed as windfall, it could be argued that they should be taken off the average windfall allowance to avoid any double counting of sites. The following table identifies the total windfall sites with planning permission and the estimated delivery rate each year.

Windfall Sites Y1 Y2 Y3 Y4 Y5 Total Extant Planning Permissions on Unallocated Large Sites 109 151 118 106 120 604 Extant Planning Permissions on Unallocated Small Sites 108 81 47 30 10 276 Total Unallocated Sites 217 232 165 136 130 880 A potential windfall element 3 9 12

Page 19 Peterborough City Council Five Year Housing Land Supply (April 2017 to March 2022)

Once the known windfall sites with planning permission are discounted, the total windfall dwellings assumed over the five year period would 12. However, as it appears inconceivable that only 12 new windfall dwellings will arise and be delivered in the next five years. As such, for the purpose of the five year land supply calculations a revised windfall element of 50 dwellings in each of years four and five has been applied. This is considered as an extremely conservative estimate, and in all probability will be exceeded.

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