`

Monday 06th, March, 2017 Index Levels : (Nifty):

Trend Reversal Point INDEX SUPPORTS RESISTANCES Period Current Trend (TRP) 27Nifty on close basis NIFTY 8860 / 8840 8920 / 9000 Term Trend* UP DOWN BELOW 8760 (8897.55) 8800 / 8760 9120 / 9200

SENSEX 28700 / 28550 28870 / 29150 Medium Term* UP DOWN BELOW 8500 (28832.45) 28300 30000 / 30650 ITE-35* ------ Term Trend* UP DOWN BELOW 7900 (11855.18) *as on 03rd Mar 2017 (*Trend Reversal Point (TRP) is based on close prices.)

Imtiaz Merchant’s Best Picks Indices

COMPANY CURRENT Equity Close As on Close As on SIZE SECTOR Points % Chg NAME PRICE Indices 23rd Feb 03rd March GODREJ INDS MIDCAP INDUSTRIAL 489 BSE Sensex 28892.97 28832.45 -60.52 -0.20%

RELIANCE LARGECAP OIL & GAS 1258 Nifty 8939.5 8897.55 -41.95 -0.47% INDST ITE Shariah TVS MOTORS MIDCAP AUTO 429 11790 11855.18 65.18 0.55% 35* S&P CNX 500 HCL TECH LARGECAP IT 852 2467.09 2476.75 9.66 0.39% Shariah Note: (Buying should be done from a medium to long term Dollar/Rupee 67.00 66.72 -0.28 -0.41% perspective) (*Weekly Returns)

Market Brief – Amid specifics move markets last week witness some profit taking on higher levels to end

the week on flat note However, Reliance, Escorts, Marico Industry, Hindustan Zinc were amongst the out performers and it appears that specific moves will continue. Forth coming Assembly election result in UP, Punjab etc and global market cues are important events to look forward on the markets movements. It is further imperative to see how the GST is implemented although government is proposing to start GST from July and if this happen then this could be a big booster for the markets. In event of positive moves the sectors likely to do well are Metals, Oil & Gas and selected stocks from Auto, Consumer goods, Industrials and Information Technology. Higher

leverage and poorly manage companies are not going to do well rather will be punished.

Technical’s – In the near term technically markets will remain range bound between 8800 – 9000. A close above 9000 with higher volume will give impieties to the markets and the markets will witness a till

about 9300 levels, However bad news flows and BJP failing to form government in UP will be detrimental

for the markets and a protracted correction will see a substantial down side and in that case market would perhaps test 8500 – 8700 on the Nifty.

Investors can still remain stock specifically optimistic on the markets, but should avoid stock with high Debt, low profitability and poor governance. One should partly unload the stocks on Election result turmoil.

`

Advance/ Advance Decline AD Un- Decline Ratio Changed BSE 1365 1494 0.91:1 165 News: NSE, BSE small firm listing platforms see NSE 682 875 0.78:1 61 traction Shariah Small and medium enterprises (SMEs) are increasingly Universe*** 486 479 1.01:1 37 looking at equity as an option for funding growth. Industry players say initiatives taken by the government and exchanges have made the equity fund-raising route more Global Indices Close Points % Chg accessible for the country’s burgeoning SME sector, which is largely dependent on bank funding. In the first Dow Jones* 21005.71 2.74 0.01% two months of 2017, there have been 10 initial public NASDAQ* 5870.75 9.53 0.16% offerings (IPOs) worth Rs 135 crore on the SME platforms of the National (NSE) FTSE* 7374.26 -8.09 -0.11% and BSE. In comparison, there has been only one IPO on Nikkei 19469.17 -95.63 -0.49% the main board, while no primary capital raising. The pace of new listings is likely to accelerate with more than Hang Sang 23552.72 -175.35 -0.74% 50 companies lining up before the exchanges with their Straits Times 3122.34 -14.14 -0.45% fund-raising plans. About 36 SMEs have rd approached BSE SME, while about 15 are eyeing listing #as on 03 Mar 2017 on NSE Emerge, the SME platform of the country’s biggest exchange. BSE SME has given the go-ahead to Institutional Buy Sell Net 28 companies, while eight have filed their offer Activity (Cr) documents and are awaiting approvals. Some of these FII* 5269.58 3740.1 1529.48 companies are Trine Entertainment, Monarch Apparels, Shareway Securities, Octaware Technologies and Perry DII** Impex. Meanwhile, NSE Emerge granted approval to four 2282.05 3019.05 -737 companies, which are Aakash Infrastructure, Sanginita Chemicals, Shree Ram Switchgear and RKEC Projects. Focus Lighting and Fixtures, Bohra Industries, Euro Fresh Foods and Jalan Transolutions have filed their FII* Foreign institutional DII** Domestic institutional invest draft prospectus. The companies eyeing to list are from News: Panic in bond market due to short sectors like apparels, chemicals, fertilisers, pharmaceuticals, realty, infrastructure and capital goods. squeeze Most of the companies are from Gujarat followed by Bond market yields dived on Thursday and Friday Rajasthan and Maharashtra. as traders scrambled to cover their short positions. According to traders, pushed Investment bankers say encouraging participation in up yields sharply after the central bank kept policy some of the recent IPOs bode well for new listings. Some rates unchanged on February 8. Yields moved up of the SME IPOs this year saw record subscriptions. Global Education’s Rs 10-crore IPO was subscribed 82 from 6.4 per cent to 6.95 per cent in less than a month. Much of the movement had happened times, generating demand worth around Rs 840 crore. Krishna Phoschem’s Rs 20-crore IPO too saw a because primary dealers and foreign banks had subscription of 33 times. Exchange officials say SME- shorted their positions, expecting yields to rise focused funds set up by the central and state further. As yields rise, prices of bonds fall. The governments are helping start-up listings. The expectation was that, by Thursday and Friday, government of Maharashtra and the Small Industries they would be buying up the bonds from the Development (Sidbi) have jointly set up one market to cover the . Public sector banks, such fund, which has invested in four SME IPOs on the sensing huge shorting, refused to sell bonds in NSE’s Emerge platform. A similar fund is also set up by the . What accentuated the the West Bengal government. Both the NSE and BSE are shortage of bond supply was that the government talking to several state governments to help with SME IPOs. The framework for a has exhausted its borrowing limit and will no separate SME platform was approved by the Securities longer supply fresh papers in the and Exchange Board of India (Sebi) in 2012. The market. Panicked bond traders therefore started disclosure and regulatory requirements for the platform offering hefty price for the same bonds to the were less stringent than those relating to listing on the public sector banks, pulling down bond yields by main board. Since 2012, around 165 companies have 20 basis points in two-three days. The 10-year listed on BSE SME and another 60 on NSE Emerge. bond closed at 6.77 per cent on Friday even Some of these companies have migrated to the main as many illiquid bonds exchanged hands in the platform of the BSE and NSE.

past two days.

*source: Business Standard *source: Business Standard `

ITE – 35* Shariah Top Gainers & Losers Gainers Losers Stocks % Stocks % Gail Ltd. 17% Divis Lab Ltd. -39% ONGC Ltd. 14% Asian Paint Ltd. -25% Hind Zinc Ltd. 11% AurobindoPhar -22% . 10% Ambuja Cement. -20% #% = 3 months Return

ITE – 211** Shariah Top Gainers & Losers Gainers Losers Stocks % Stocks % InfeabeamIncorp Ltd. 29% Divis Lab Ltd. -39% Sterlite Tech Ltd. 28% Kajaria Ceramics. -37% Shilpa Medicare Ltd. 25% Century Plyboards. -34% Excel Crop Care Ltd. 24% Housing Dev &Infra -29% Mahanagar Gas Ltd. 19% Dalmia Bharat Ltd. -29% Sonata Software Ltd. 19% Wockhardt Ltd. -26% KRBL Ltd. 19% Asian Paints Ltd. -25% GAIL (India) Ltd. 17% Intellect Design. -24% BalkrishnaIndst Ltd. 17% Berger Paints Ltd. -24% Sectors Indices Indraprastha Gas Ltd. 16% Just Dial Ltd. -24% # % = 3 months Return

BSE Top Gainers & Losers Gainers Losers Stocks % Stocks % ESCORTS 6.38% APPOLOHOSP -5.31% INFRATEL 6.35% BAJAJFINSV -3.13% HINDALCO 4.83% JISLJALEQS -2.87% BALRAMCHIN 4.46% NETWORK18 -2.69% rd #as on 03 Mar 2017

`

Weekly roundup: Sensex snaps five-week gaining spree as Fed rate hike looms

A surprisingly positive gross domestic product (GDP) growth data and globally US President Donald Trump’s non-combative speech to Congress may have taken the market to two-year high on the fourth trading day, the benchmark indices snapped five-week long gaining spree to end in red terrain as investors preferred to book profits ahead of the US Federal Reserve’s policy meeting on March 14-15 and back home state election results due on March 11. During the week ended March 3, the S&P BSE Sensex fell 0.2% or 60 points to settle at 28832, while the Nifty50 lost 0.5% or 42 points to close the week at 8897. On Thursday, the 30-share Sensex had reclaimed its crucial 29,000 mark, hitting its two-year high of 29133 points, while 50- share Nifty also rose as much as 8,989 in intraday trade before profit-booking pushed the both indices lower. Midcap stocks underperformed the frontline indices. The BSE Midcap index slipped 0.9%, while the BSE Smallcap index lost just 0.2% for the week. “We feel Nifty will remain sideways in the next session too; however, there'll be no shortage of trading opportunities on stock specific front. Traders should use this phase to buy quality stocks at good bargain. Auto especially the two-wheeler pack looks strong along with select media, IT and banking counters,” said Jayant Manglik, President, Retail Distribution, Securities.

Sectors and stocks Sectorally, BSE PSU index (down 2.6%) shed the most, followed by BSE Power (down 2%), BSE Bankex (down 2%) and BSE Oil & Gas (down 1.8). BSE Auto and BSE FMCG slipped 0.9% and 0.6%, respectively. Among gainers, BSE Metal advanced 2%, while BSE IT and BSE Realty were up 1% each. BSE Teck and BSE Consumer Durables gained 0.6% and 0.3%, respectively. Among Sensex stocks, NTPC, Power Grid Corp and ICICI Bank plunged 6%, 4% and 3%, respectively, while Bharti Airtel and lost 3% each. Maruti Suzuki and Coal India dipped 2% each. Gainers included , Hero MotoCorp and Infosys, which rallied 6%, 3% and 2%, respectively. Hindustan Unilever and Tata Steel also gained 2% each.

To the surprise of economists and market participants, the Central Statistic Office (CSO) on Tuesday showed that GDP expanded by 7% in the third quarter, belying all fears of the demonetisation derailing economic activity. The pace of the growth, however, slowed from 7.4% logged in the September quarter, but CSO retained its first advance growth estimate for the entire financial year 2016-17 at 7.1%. Meanwhile, Nikkei India Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) inched up to 50.7 in February from 50.4 in January, while Nikkei India Services PMI stood at 50.3 in February, up from 48.7 registered in January. The US Federal Reserve looks set to hike interest rates in its next policy meeting on March 14-15 as leading policymakers including Chair Janet Yellen indicating the global economy seemed to have turned a corner, clearing the way for a rate hike “fairly soon”. Yellen, in a speech on Friday signaled the Fed is set to raise interest rates this month if employment and other economic data hold up. She also said rates are likely to rise faster this year. Traders now have priced in about an 85% chance of a hike during the March 14-15 policy-setting meeting, according to Thomson Reuters data. Those chances stood at roughly 30% at the start of the week.

MARKET NEXT WEEK: The week will start with investors reacting on Yellen’s fresh comments on rate hike in US. The ambiguity over state election verdict, however, may keep the market sideways. The outcome of the two-day GST Council meet, which begins on Saturday, will also be watched out for. Investors are concerned the Council may fix the peak GST rate at 40% instead of `

28% agreed before. “Investors are likely to take a wait & watch approach as the high valuation may turn the market to consolidation,” said Vinod Nair, Head of Research at Geojit Financial Services.

*source: Business Standard

Stock Universe for Jan to March 2017

Compliant Status No. of Percentage of Total Total Market Percentage of Total Companies companies Capitalization

Shariah Compliant Stocks 1164 30.64 6,567,406.95 56.75 Ratio Based Shariah Non –Compliant 1769 46.56 2,104,663.53 18.19 Industry Based Non- Compliant 865 22.77 2,899,533.42 25.06 Total Traded Stocks 3799 99.97 11,571,603.90 100.00 rd #as on 03 Mar 2017

‘Markets are directionally efficient, meaning that today’s price

reflects what is currently known about the future direction of the markets.’

*ITE-35 Shariah index is a well diversified Index with 35 stocks large size companies developed by Pragmatic Wealth Management research group. The ITE-35 Index commensurate with the Sensex & Nifty.

** ITE -211 Shariah is a broad based index constitutes 211 companies from large, mid and small size companies spread over 9 Shariah permissible sectors. This is parent (macro Index) and it commensurate with BSE- 500 and S&P CNX 500

*** Shariah universe comprises of companies derived (Filtered) from total traded stocks on (BSE) as per Shariah norms

Caution: Islamic Investments strictly prohibits intraday trading and Derivative trading. Stocks should only be sold upon procuring the delivery.

Disclaimer: The recommendations made herein do not constitute an offer to sell or a solicitation to buy any of the securities mentioned. No representations can be made that the recommendations contained herein will be profitable or that they will not result in losses. Readers using the information contained herein are solely responsible for their actions. Information is obtained from sources deemed to be reliable but is not guaranteed as to accuracy and completeness. The above recommendations and Newsletters are based on the theory of Technical & Combined. © Pragmatic Wealth Management Pvt. Ltd.