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Uncertainty and Hyperinflation: European Inflation Dynamics After World War I
FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF SAN FRANCISCO WORKING PAPER SERIES Uncertainty and Hyperinflation: European Inflation Dynamics after World War I Jose A. Lopez Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco Kris James Mitchener Santa Clara University CAGE, CEPR, CES-ifo & NBER June 2018 Working Paper 2018-06 https://www.frbsf.org/economic-research/publications/working-papers/2018/06/ Suggested citation: Lopez, Jose A., Kris James Mitchener. 2018. “Uncertainty and Hyperinflation: European Inflation Dynamics after World War I,” Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco Working Paper 2018-06. https://doi.org/10.24148/wp2018-06 The views in this paper are solely the responsibility of the authors and should not be interpreted as reflecting the views of the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco or the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. Uncertainty and Hyperinflation: European Inflation Dynamics after World War I Jose A. Lopez Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco Kris James Mitchener Santa Clara University CAGE, CEPR, CES-ifo & NBER* May 9, 2018 ABSTRACT. Fiscal deficits, elevated debt-to-GDP ratios, and high inflation rates suggest hyperinflation could have potentially emerged in many European countries after World War I. We demonstrate that economic policy uncertainty was instrumental in pushing a subset of European countries into hyperinflation shortly after the end of the war. Germany, Austria, Poland, and Hungary (GAPH) suffered from frequent uncertainty shocks – and correspondingly high levels of uncertainty – caused by protracted political negotiations over reparations payments, the apportionment of the Austro-Hungarian debt, and border disputes. In contrast, other European countries exhibited lower levels of measured uncertainty between 1919 and 1925, allowing them more capacity with which to implement credible commitments to their fiscal and monetary policies. -
THE OECD-WTO BALANCED TRADE in SERVICES DATABASE (BPM6 Edition)
1 THE OECD-WTO BALANCED TRADE IN SERVICES DATABASE (BPM6 edition) Antonella Liberatore (OECD), Steen Wettstein (WTO)1 January 2021 Complete, consistent and balanced bilateral trade in services statistics are vital for the empirical analysis of international trade as well as for policy-making and trade negotiations. Unfortunately, such data are not readily available. This paper presents the work of OECD and WTO to build an updated version of the Balanced Trade in Services (BaTIS) dataset, a complete and consistent trade in services matrix to serve as input for the compilation of the TiVA Inter-Country Input-Output Tables and as a tool for the analysis of trade patterns in general. This second edition of BaTIS provides annual data for 2005-2019, covering 202 economies, broken down by the 12 main EBOPS 2010 service categories. This paper accompanies the dataset and describes its compilation methodology in detail, including the collection and cleaning of the reported data, the different methodologies used to estimate missing information, and the final balancing of the export and import flows. 1 This contribution reflects a description of a methodology and does not represent the position or opinions of OECD, WTO or their respective Members, nor the official position of any staff members. The definition of geographical territories in this report is merely statistical and does not imply an expression of opinion by the OECD or the WTO Secretariat concerning the status of any country or territory, the delimitation of its frontiers, its official name, nor the rights and obligations of any WTO member in respect of WTO agreements. -
Lecture 10 2-18 Outline and Slides 0.Pdf
Economics 2 Professor Christina Romer Spring 2016 Professor David Romer LECTURE 10 INTERNATIONAL TRADE AND TRADE POLICY February 18, 2016 I. OVERVIEW II. REVIEW OF COMPLETE SPECIALIZATION A. Example of the United States and China B. Terms of trade and world prices III. INCOMPLETE SPECIALIZATION A. Changing opportunity cost within each country B. Optimal level of specialization C. Consumption possibilities with trade IV. SUPPLY AND DEMAND ANALYSIS OF INTERNATIONAL TRADE A. Export good B. Import good V. WELFARE AND EMPLOYMENT EFFECTS OF TRADE A. Welfare analysis of trade 1. Export good 2. Import good B. Employment effects of trade VI. TRADE POLICY A. Some definitions B. Effects of a tariff C. Welfare analysis of a tariff D. Possible arguments for protection Economics 2 Christina Romer Spring 2016 David Romer LECTURE 10 International Trade and Trade Policy February 18, 2016 Announcements • Midterm 1 Logistics: • Tuesday, February 23rd, 3:30–5:00 • Sections 102, 104, 107, 108 (GSIs Pablo Muñoz and David Green) go to 245 Li Ka Shing Center (corner of Oxford and Berkeley Way). • Everyone else come to usual room (2050 VLSB). • You do not need a blue book; just a pen. • You also do not need a watch or phone. Announcements (continued) • Collecting the Exams: • If you finish before 4:45, you may quietly pack up and bring your exam to the front. • After 4:45, stay seated. • We will collect all of the exams by passing them to the nearest aisle. • Please don’t get up until all of the exams are collected. • Academic honesty: Behave with integrity. -
The Oppressive Pressures of Globalization and Neoliberalism on Mexican Maquiladora Garment Workers
Pursuit - The Journal of Undergraduate Research at The University of Tennessee Volume 9 Issue 1 Article 7 July 2019 The Oppressive Pressures of Globalization and Neoliberalism on Mexican Maquiladora Garment Workers Jenna Demeter The University of Tennessee, Knoxville, [email protected] Follow this and additional works at: https://trace.tennessee.edu/pursuit Part of the Business Administration, Management, and Operations Commons, Business Law, Public Responsibility, and Ethics Commons, Economic History Commons, Gender and Sexuality Commons, Growth and Development Commons, Income Distribution Commons, Industrial Organization Commons, Inequality and Stratification Commons, International and Comparative Labor Relations Commons, International Economics Commons, International Relations Commons, International Trade Law Commons, Labor and Employment Law Commons, Labor Economics Commons, Latin American Studies Commons, Law and Economics Commons, Macroeconomics Commons, Political Economy Commons, Politics and Social Change Commons, Public Economics Commons, Regional Economics Commons, Rural Sociology Commons, Unions Commons, and the Work, Economy and Organizations Commons Recommended Citation Demeter, Jenna (2019) "The Oppressive Pressures of Globalization and Neoliberalism on Mexican Maquiladora Garment Workers," Pursuit - The Journal of Undergraduate Research at The University of Tennessee: Vol. 9 : Iss. 1 , Article 7. Available at: https://trace.tennessee.edu/pursuit/vol9/iss1/7 This Article is brought to you for free and open access by -
GLOSSARY of INTERNATIONAL TRADE TERMS 2016 Guide
CALIFORNIA FASHION ASSOCIATION 444 South Flower Street, 37th Floor · Los Angeles, CA 90071 ·ph. 213.688.6288 ·fax 213.688.6290 Email: [email protected] Website: www.californiafashionassociation.org GLOSSARY OF INTERNATIONAL TRADE TERMS 2016 Guide Sponsored By: Prepared by: CALIFORNIA FASHION ASSOCIATION 444 South Flower Street, 37th Floor, Los Angeles, CA 90071 Phone: 213-688-6288, Fax: 213-688-6290 [email protected] | www.californiafashionassociation.org 1 CALIFORNIA FASHION ASSOCIATION 444 South Flower Street, 37th Floor · Los Angeles, CA 90071 ·ph. 213.688.6288 ·fax 213.688.6290 Email: [email protected] Website: www.californiafashionassociation.org THE VOICE OF THE CALIFORNIA INDUSTRY The California Fashion Association is the forum organized to address the issues of concern to our industry. Manufacturers, contractors, suppliers, educational institutions, allied associations and all apparel-related businesses benefit. Fashion is the largest manufacturing sector in Southern California. Nearly 13,548 firms are involved in fashion-related businesses in Los Angeles and Orange County; it is a $49.3-billion industry. The apparel and textile industry of the region employs approximately 128,148 people, directly and indirectly in Los Angeles and surrounding counties. The California Fashion Association is the clearinghouse for information and representation. We are a collective voice focused on the industry's continued growth, prosperity and competitive advantage, directed toward the promotion of global recognition for the "Created in California" -
Study Abroad for Economic Majors PSU Allows Students to Participate
Study Abroad for Economic Majors PSU allows students to participate in any study abroad program that is good for them – the following are only suggestions. Short Term: PSU short term faculty-led programs change from year to year. Keep an eye out for posters and announcements in your classes to learn about short term faculty led programs. K-State and KU and other universities’ short term study abroad programs are open to PSU students. These also change from year to year. Summer Programs available through PSU’s affiliate organizations: (deadline to apply – March 1st for summer abroad): API – most courses taught in English – http://www.apistudyabroad.com/ • England – London: Introductory Macroeconomics, Essential Statistics for Economics and Econometrics, Intermediate Macroeconomics, Introduction to Econometrics, Public Finance, Development Economics, International Economics IFSA Butler – most courses taught in English – www.ifsa-butler.org • England – Cambridge: Introduction to Finance and Methods of Quantitative Analysis, Financial Markets and Institutions • England – Sussex: Global Economic Issues, Introduction to Development Economics, Corporate Finance - Financial Strategic Planning GlobaLinks – most courses taught in English – globalinksabroad.org • Australia – Adelaide: East Asian Economies II, Sports Economics III, Semester Programs: (deadline to apply October 1st for spring abroad, March 1st for fall abroad): Exchange Partner Universities: Finland: University of Oulu – http://www.oulu.fi/english/studentexchange/studying Classes -
Underdevelopment and Unregulated Markets: Seven Reasons Why Unregulated Markets Reproduce Underdevelopment
A Service of Leibniz-Informationszentrum econstor Wirtschaft Leibniz Information Centre Make Your Publications Visible. zbw for Economics Herr, Hansjörg Working Paper Underdevelopment and unregulated markets: Seven reasons why unregulated markets reproduce underdevelopment Working Paper, No. 103/2018 Provided in Cooperation with: Berlin Institute for International Political Economy (IPE) Suggested Citation: Herr, Hansjörg (2018) : Underdevelopment and unregulated markets: Seven reasons why unregulated markets reproduce underdevelopment, Working Paper, No. 103/2018, Hochschule für Wirtschaft und Recht Berlin, Institute for International Political Economy (IPE), Berlin This Version is available at: http://hdl.handle.net/10419/178653 Standard-Nutzungsbedingungen: Terms of use: Die Dokumente auf EconStor dürfen zu eigenen wissenschaftlichen Documents in EconStor may be saved and copied for your Zwecken und zum Privatgebrauch gespeichert und kopiert werden. personal and scholarly purposes. Sie dürfen die Dokumente nicht für öffentliche oder kommerzielle You are not to copy documents for public or commercial Zwecke vervielfältigen, öffentlich ausstellen, öffentlich zugänglich purposes, to exhibit the documents publicly, to make them machen, vertreiben oder anderweitig nutzen. publicly available on the internet, or to distribute or otherwise use the documents in public. Sofern die Verfasser die Dokumente unter Open-Content-Lizenzen (insbesondere CC-Lizenzen) zur Verfügung gestellt haben sollten, If the documents have been made available under an Open gelten abweichend von diesen Nutzungsbedingungen die in der dort Content Licence (especially Creative Commons Licences), you genannten Lizenz gewährten Nutzungsrechte. may exercise further usage rights as specified in the indicated licence. www.econstor.eu Key words: underdevelopment, financial system, free trade, inequality, Keynesian paradigm, Washington Consensus. JEL classification: B50, F40, O11 Contact: Hansjörg Herr email: [email protected] 1. -
Trade and Employment Challenges for Policy Research
ILO - WTO - ILO TRADE AND EMPLOYMENT CHALLENGES FOR POLICY RESEARCH This study is the outcome of collaborative research between the Secretariat of the World Trade Organization (WTO) and the TRADE AND EMPLOYMENT International Labour Office (ILO). It addresses an issue that is of concern to both organizations: the relationship between trade and employment. On the basis of an overview of the existing academic CHALLENGES FOR POLICY RESEARCH literature, the study provides an impartial view of what can be said, and with what degree of confidence, on the relationship between trade and employment, an often contentious issue of public debate. Its focus is on the connections between trade policies, and labour and social policies and it will be useful for all those who are interested in this debate: academics and policy-makers, workers and employers, trade and labour specialists. WTO ISBN 978-92-870-3380-2 A joint study of the International Labour Office ILO ISBN 978-92-2-119551-1 and the Secretariat of the World Trade Organization Printed by the WTO Secretariat - 813.07 TRADE AND EMPLOYMENT CHALLENGES FOR POLICY RESEARCH A joint study of the International Labour Office and the Secretariat of the World Trade Organization Prepared by Marion Jansen Eddy Lee Economic Research and Statistics Division International Institute for Labour Studies World Trade Organization International Labour Office TRADE AND EMPLOYMENT: CHALLENGES FOR POLICY RESEARCH Copyright © 2007 International Labour Organization and World Trade Organization. Publications of the International Labour Office and World Trade Organization enjoy copyright under Protocol 2 of the Universal Copyright Convention. Nevertheless, short excerpts from them may be reproduced without authorization, on condition that the source is indicated. -
Non-Tariff Measures Overview Glossary of Related Terms
Non-Tariff Measures Overview Glossary of Related Terms Note: With thanks to the following for definitions provided here: Deardorff's Glossary of International Economics, the 1 United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD), the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD), the United Nations Educational, Scientific and Cultural Organization (UNESCO) and the World Trade Organization (WTO). Terms Definition Absolute Advantage (AA) The ability to produce a good at lower cost, in terms of real resources, than another country. In a Ricardian model, cost is in terms of labor only. Absolute advantage is neither necessary nor sufficient for a country to export a good. Ad Valorem Equivalent The ad valorem tariff that would be equivalent, in terms of its effects on trade, Terms price, or some other measure, to a nontariff barrier. Ad Valorem Tariff (A Tariff defined as a percentage of the value of an imported good. Percentage of Price) Adjustment Assistance Government program to assist workers and/or firms whose industry has declined, either due to import competition (trade adjustment assistance) or from other causes. Such programs usually have two (conflicting) goals: to lessen hardship for those affected, and to help them change their behavior -- what, how, or where they produce. AGOA U.S. legislation enacted May 2000 providing tariff preferences to African countries that qualify, including trade facilitation and technical assistance to producers. As of January 2016, 40 countries were listed as eligible. Several countries have had their eligibility removed and some later reinstated over the years. Anti-Dumping Measures A complaint by a domestic producer that imports are being dumped, leading to an anti-dumping duty if both dumping and injury are found in the resulting investigation. -
Models of International Economics - Giancarlo Gandolfo
MATHEMATICAL MODELS IN ECONOMICS –- Vol. II – Models of International Economics - Giancarlo Gandolfo MODELS OF INTERNATIONAL ECONOMICS Giancarlo Gandolfo Sapienza University of Rome, Italy, and Accademia Nazionale dei Lincei, Rome Keywords: Absorption, balance of payments, comparative cost, factor endowments, flow approaches, Heckscher-Ohlin model, international finance, international trade, international monetary economics, intertemporal approach, non tariff barriers, open economy macroeconomics, optimum tariff, political economy of protectionism, Ricardo, stock approaches, tariffs, trade policy, Walras’ law. Contents 1. Introduction 2. Models of International Trade 2.1. The Orthodox Theory 2.2. Generalizations 2.3. Trade Policy 2.4. The New Theories 2.5. Further Developments 3. Models of International Monetary Economics 3.1. The Basic Models 3.2. Stock Approaches 3.3. The Intertemporal Model 3.4. Models of the Exchange Rate 3.5. Currency Crises and Other Problems Acknowledgements Glossary Bibliography Biographical Sketch Summary The importance of international economics is increasing, owing to the increasing openness of UNESCOthe single national economic system– s:EOLSS on average, at the world level more than 28% of national income is spent on foreign commodities and services. A feature of current international exchanges with respect to those of the past is that exchanges of financial assets have been growing much more rapidly than exchanges of commodities. Moreover, theseSAMPLE financial exchanges, once an cillaryCHAPTERS to commodity trade, have taken on an autonomous importance and are far greater than the value of exchanges of commodities. This situation is also reflected in the theoretical models, which -once mostly concerned with the theory of commercial flows- have had to cope with the theory of financial and macroeconomic flows in an open macroeconomy. -
EXCHANGE RATE PASS-THROUGH INTO IMPORT PRICES Jose´ Manuel Campa and Linda S
EXCHANGE RATE PASS-THROUGH INTO IMPORT PRICES Jose´ Manuel Campa and Linda S. Goldberg* Abstract—We provide cross-country and time series evidence on the can be raised, then, about whether measured degrees of mon- extent of exchange rate pass-through into the import prices of 23 OECD countries. We find compelling evidence of partial pass-through in the short etary policy effectiveness are fragile and regime-specific if the run,especiallywithinmanufacturingindustries.Overthelongrun,producer- degree of exchange rate pass-through is highly endogenous to currency pricing is more prevalent for many types of imported goods. macroeconomic variables.2 The degree of aggregate exchange Countries with higher rates of exchange rate volatility have higher pass-through elasticities, although macroeconomic variables have played rate pass-through, and its determinants, are therefore important a minor role in the evolution of pass-through elasticities over time. Far for the effectiveness of macroeconomic policy. more important for pass-through changes in these countries have been the Although pass-through of exchange rate movements into dramatic shifts in the composition of country import bundles. a country’s import prices is central to these macroeconomic stabilization arguments, to date only limited relevant evi- I. Introduction dence on this relationship has been available.3 The first goal hough exchange rate pass-through has long been of of our paper is to provide extensive cross-country and time Tinterest, the focus of this interest has evolved consid- series evidence on exchange rate pass-through into the erably over time. After a long period of debate over the law import prices of 23 OECD countries. -
Importing, Exporting and Aggregate Productivity in Large Devaluations∗
Importing, Exporting and Aggregate Productivity in Large Devaluations∗ Joaquin Blaum.† July 2017 Abstract A standard mechanism linking large real depreciations to declines in aggregate productivity is that firms’ access to foreign inputs is restricted. Recent quantitative trade models of importing predict that the economy’s aggregate import share should decrease following a real depreciation. I provide evidence that in fact the aggregate import share increases after a large depreciation. Using Mexican micro data, I show that the increase in the overall import intensity is explained by the expansion and entry of new exporters, which are intense importers. I develop a model of joint importing-exporting and discipline it to match salient features of the Mexican micro data. I study a counterfactual devaluation and show that the calibrated model can generate an increase in the aggregate import share and compositional effects in line with the data. A model with importing only cannot generate either, and predicts a decrease in aggregate productivity that is twice as large. JEL Codes: F11, F12, F14, F62, D21, D22 ∗I thank Ben Faber, Pablo Fajgelbaum, Michael Peters, Jesse Schreger and seminar participants at Brown, Atlanta Fed, LACEA-TIGN in Montevideo, Di Tella University, Nottingham GEP, SED in Edinburgh, SAET in Faro and the NBER IFM SI Meeting. I am grateful to Rob Johnson and Sebastian Claro for excellent discussions. I also thank the International Economics Section of Princeton University for its hospitality and funding during part of this research. †Brown University. Email: [email protected] 1 1 Introduction Large economic crises in emerging markets are associated with sharp contractions in output and aggregate productivity as well as strong depreciations of the exchange rate - e.g.