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Sri Lanka Banking Report – November 2020 Table of Contents

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Sri Lanka Banking Report – November 2020 Table of Contents SriLanka Banking Report Issue 6 5th November 2020 KPMG in Sri Lanka 2 | Sri Lanka Banking Report – November 2020 Table of Contents ________________________________________Foreword 03 ________________________________________Executive Summary 04 ________________________________________Performance Highlights 05 ________________________________________Banking Sector Highlights 07 ________________________________________Economic Overview 10 ________________________________________Banking Sector Analysis 17 ________________________________________Predictions of a new reality for banks 29 COVID-19 putting a spotlight on banks’ payment ________________________________________operations 32 ________________________________________Banks balance surge in SME business loans 35 Banks overcome pressing cost challenges to be fit for ________________________________________the future 38 ________________________________________A new operating model 41 ________________________________________Fraudsters never waste a good crisis 44 ________________________________________Key cyber risks for banks during COVID-19 47 ________________________________________A new risk management playbook for banks 50 ________________________________________About KPMG 54 © 2020 KPMG, a Sri Lankan Partnership and a member firm of the KPMG global organization of independent member firms affiliated with KPMG International Limited, a private English company limited by guarantee. All rights reserved 3 | Sri Lanka Banking Report – November 2020 Foreword COVID-19 has dramatically reshaped the world in which In response to COVID 19, banking industry in Sri Lanka has we live, with tumultuous economic and financial effects enabled alternative working models and serving customers running alongside the public health emergency. in many ways with the use of modern technology. COVID- 19 has also forced businesses of all types to fundamentally At the height of the outbreak, banks across the globe rethink their traditional operating models, business models played, and continue to play, a fundamentally important and customer value propositions. role supporting businesses and families by administering government- backed loans, providing additional liquidity and For the financial services industry, the transformation will rapidly installing forbearance measures. In many ways trust be challenging; but it will also be necessary as change is in banks is at an all-time high. coming and coming fast . The financial institutions aren’t just weathering the storm The new normal would compel banks to embrace continual or waiting for good weather. They are turning the reinvention of their business models and solutions. Hence experience to their advantage and building the capabilities it is increasingly clear that the entire banking ecosystem they require to thrive in the new reality. and the way consumers associate with financial institutions are being realigned with the new normal. Rightfully so, the first reaction to COVID-19 was to protect employees and customers and this must remain a central The significant change in CEOs' priorities over the past six tenet of the business strategy – not only for business months is a clear indication that businesses have had to continuity purposes, but also as a way to shape and pivot at breakneck speed to deal with the challenges of the enhance organizational culture. pandemic. Business leaders the world over are seeking to manage uncertainty with decisiveness. Whilst moving towards the “New Normal”, the banks are focusing on five key priorities as they plan their path to I believe the financial services markets of the future will recovery. largely be shaped by those organizations that are able to anticipate tomorrow while delivering on the priorities of Reconnecting with customers. today. Creating vibrant ecosystems and partnerships Productivity improvement and technology enablement. They are the ones that are turning the COVID-19 Improving risk management and agility. experience to their advantage and building the capabilities Embedding social responsibility and purpose. they require to thrive in the new reality. During the phase of various instabilities and the COVID-19 KPMG in Sri Lanka brings to you the sixth issue of the Sri outbreak, the banking sector as the backbone of the Lanka Banking Report with key discussions on the economy, had to undergo various changes as response to performance and trends of the 1st Half of 2020, focusing the demands of the macro economy. on the COVID-19 implications on various areas of the businesses and the importance of the approach to The Central Bank of Sri Lanka (CBSL), the spearhead of the “Anticipate tomorrow, but deliver today”. banking sector is playing a key role in taking necessary . measures towards revival of the economy during the pandemic. CBSL took measures to provide debt moratoriums via financial institutions as relief measures for businesses and individuals during the various economic shocks that occurred in the country. These moratoriums are expected to be extended. With Passion and Purpose Ranjani Joseph Partner - Head of Banking Services & Markets © 2020 KPMG, a Sri Lankan PartnershipKPMG and in a memberSri Lanka firm of the KPMG global organization of independent member firms affiliated with KPMG International Limited, a private English company limited by guarantee. All rights reserved 4 | Sri Lanka Banking Report – November 2020 Executive Summary Sri Lanka’s economy continues to be impacted by the However, in the recent months, up until the second wave COVID-19 pandemic, with several key sectors of the of COVID-19 hit in October 2020, there was an uptick in economy, such as tourism, trade and consumption yet to positive business sentiment in the country, as there was return to normalcy. The initial month of the pandemic minimal community transmission due to successful (March 2020) resulted in 1Q2020 Gross Domestic Product containment efforts by Government of Sri Lanka (GoSL). (GDP) contracting by 1.6% Year-over -Year (YoY). With We expect in the coming quarters, this momentum to lockdown and curfews lasting for seven weeks through to continue and as a result private sector credit growth to 2Q2020, the key rating agencies expect Sri Lanka’s slowly pick up in 2021, as GoSL has indicated that they do economy to contract between 1.0 - 6.0% in 2020. not opt for a prolonged lockdown as earlier, under the current economic situation. The drag on the economy was reflected in the domestic banking sector, with weak results in 2Q2020. Gross loans CBSL has taken several measures to revive the economy, and advances increased by just 0.7% Quarter-on-Quarter since March 2020 with policy revisions, liquidity injections, (QoQ) in the period, with contractions in credit extended to loan moratoriums, as well as curtailment in imports and the private sector in May and June 2020, contributing foreign currency investments to push towards an towards this performance. economic recovery. As a result, to ease pressure on the exchange rate, CBSL has issued a directive, suspending Banking sector’s Net Interest Income (NII) declined by the import of selected motor vehicles and specific non- 3.3% YoY in 1H2020 due to slow credit growth, declining essential goods, as well as in the purchase of Sri Lanka interest rates and debt moratoriums imposed. Net Interest International Sovereign Bonds until end September. Margin (NIM) continued to trend lower, falling to 3.2% in 2Q2020, from 3.4% in 1Q2020, a further decrease from Moreover, in August 2020, the CBSL imposed interest rate 3.6% recorded in 2019. caps on selected lending products offered by licensed banks and also extended the loan moratorium to the As at 15th October 2020, under the Saubagya COVID -19 tourism sector, up to 31st March 2021. Renaissance Facility, LKR 177.9 Bn was approved in total loans, benefitting 61,907 applicants It is noteworthy to mention that the banking sector has maintained healthy capital adequacy ratios (CAR) The CBSL also decided to go beyond the LKR 150 Bn limit throughout 2020, reporting a Tier 1 CAR of 13.1% and a on the facility, which it had previously increased from LKR total CAR of 16.4% at end-June 2020. This was well above 100 Bn, due to the large number of applications received. the minimum regulatory requirements. Policy rates were further lowered in July 2020, marking the With increasing regulatory requirements, there is a fourth reduction since the start of the COVID-19 pandemic. likelihood of consolidation within the industry as smaller The Bank Rate was also lowered to 8.5% in July 2020. All banks that are faced with more challenging operating such efforts of the CBSL combined, released LKR 459.4 Bn conditions and greater profitability pressures may not be of liquidity into the domestic economy between February able to maintain competitiveness. and June 2020. A positive change witnessed during the pandemic has There is however, a significant risk that these measures, been the progress of digital banking, which has been whilst supportive in the short-term, are expected to impact accelerated, due to the increasing need to serve customers the profitability and asset quality of domestic banks, remotely and efficiently. This creates opportunities to particularly following the expiry of the loan moratorium remodel banks’ operations, focusing more on value (end-September 2020 except for tourism related loans). addition and quality of service delivery. We expect to see a rise in Non-Performing Loans (NPLs) In conclusion, due to relief
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