Israel and the Middle East News Update

Monday, October 9

Headlines:

• to Approve Almost 4,000 New West Bank Homes • Israeli Lawmakers Bash Trump for Delaying Embassy Move • Egypt's Sisi: Palestinian Unity a Stepping Stone to Peace • IDF Destroys Hamas Outpost in Retaliation for Rocket Fire • 30,000 Take Part in Women Wage Peace Rally in Jerusalem • Court Greenlights protests near Attorney-General's House • Anti-Israeli UNESCO Resolutions Postponed by Half a Year • 3 Israeli Judokas Take Gold at Tashkent Grand Prix

Commentary: • Yediot Ahronot: “Israel-Iran Conflict in Syria Reaching Point of no Return” − By Alex Fishman, military correspondent at Yediot Ahronot • Ha’aretz: “Trump’s Iran Ploy Could Isolate Washington, Implicate Netanyahu and Divide American Jews” − By Chemi Shalev, columnist at Ha’aretz

S. Daniel Abraham Center for Middle East Peace 633 Pennsylvania Ave. NW, 5th Floor, Washington, DC 20004 The Hon. Robert Wexler, President ● Aaron Zucker, Editor

News Excerpts October 9, 2017 Times of Israel Israel to Approve Almost 4,000 New West Bank Homes Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s government is reportedly set to approve almost 4,000 new homes in Israeli settlements in the West Bank next week. According to a Channel 2 news report Sunday, the 3,829 units are slated to be built in various areas across the West Bank, including in isolated settlements. The approval will include 30 units in the West Bank city of Hebron, 296 in the settlement of Beit El, 453 in Givat Ze’ev, 102 in Naguhot, 97 in Rechalim, 54 in Har Bracha, 86 in Kochav Yaakov, 48 in Ma’aleh Michmash, 158 in Kfar Ezion, 129 in Avnei Hefetz, 120 in Nofim, and 206 in Tekoa, according to the TV report. See also, “ISRAEL TO ADVANCE PLANS FOR OVER 3,000 SETTLER HOMES NEXT WEEK” (Jerusalem Post)

Jerusalem Post Israeli Lawmakers Bash Trump for Delaying Embassy Move Politicians from Prime Minister Netanyahu’s Likud party expressed disappointment with US President Donald Trump’s announcement that he wants to try to make peace between Israel and the Palestinians before considering moving the US embassy from to Jerusalem. Jerusalem Affairs Minister Ze’ev Elkin said he believed Trump made the wrong decision to trust Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas. “I am very disappointed that President Trump chose to delay implementing his campaign promise to move the US embassy to Jerusalem due to an illusion that a real peace process can be advanced with the current Palestinian administration,” Elkin said. See also, “Ministers lament Trump decision to delay US embassy move” (TOI) i24 News Egypt's Sisi: Palestinian Unity a Stepping Stone to Peace Egyptian president Sisi said on Sunday that he hopes the prospect of reconciliation between rival Palestinian factions Fatah and Hamas will pave the way to broader Israeli-Palestinian peace. His statement came as the representatives from both Palestinian camps are set to arrive in the Egyptian capital Cairo on Monday to push ahead with talks to heal the divide that has split the Palestinians for over ten years. See also, “Hamas Deal to Cede Gaza Control Sets Up Showdown Over Guns” (Bloomberg)

Ha’aretz IDF Destroys Hamas Outpost in Retaliation for Rocket Fire The Israeli army destroyed a Hamas observation post on Sunday night in the Gaza Strip in retaliation for a rocket that was fired from the Strip at Israeli territory earlier in the evening, the military announced. According to the army, an tank fired a mortar at the target, destroying it. Reports from Gaza said that the strike took place next to a refugee camp in the center of he Strip. When the rocket was fired from the Strip at southern Israel on Sunday evening, sirens sounded in the Eshkol Regional Council communities next to the Gaza border. See also, “ISRAEL STRIKES HAMAS TARGET IN RETALIATION FOR ROCKET FIRE FROM GAZA” (Jerusalem Post) 2

Ha’aretz 30,000 Take Part in Women Wage Peace Rally in Jerusalem Some 30,000 Israelis and Palestinians took part in the Women Wage Peace rally in Jerusalem on Sunday night in Independence Park. The rally was the high point of a “peace walk” that began two weeks ago in Sderot in the Negev and passed through the territories and Israel, with the participation of thousands of Israeli and Palestinian women, calling for a peace agreement. Adina Bar-Shalom, founder of an ultra-Orthodox women’s college and the daughter of former Sephardi Chief Rabbi Ovadia Yosef also participated. See also, “Women march through desert for Israeli-Palestinian peace” (Reuters)

Jerusalem Post Court Greenlights Protests near Attorney-General's House The High Court of Justice on Sunday ruled it legal to hold demonstrations near the attorney-general’s home protesting corruption and other probes against the Netanyahus. Critically, the High Court also declared that the police cannot condition the protests on granting a license nor can the police move the protests given that the number of attendees has ballooned to more than 2,000 people. The ruling amounts to a huge victory for the protesters, who have been pressing Avichai Mandelblit to expedite his decisions regarding criminal probes of Netanyahu and his wife. Though Mandelblit announced he would likely indict Sara Netanyahu on September 7, he still has not done so. And with no immediate end in sight regarding the prime minister, the protesters have remained focused on the attorney- general. See also, “Israeli Court: Protesters Outside Attorney General's Home Don’t Need Police Permit” (Ha’aretz)

Ynet News Anti-Israeli UNESCO Resolutions Postponed by Half a Year There won't be any anti-Israeli resolutions raised in the upcoming session of the United Nations Educational, Scientific and Cultural Organization (UNESCO) after the chairman of the organization's Executive Board worked to postpone in half a year two such votes. In recent years, the Palestinians, with the help of Arab nations, have pushed for several anti-Israeli resolutions in UNESCO, including one that failed to recognize Jewish ties to the Temple Mount, one that rejected Israeli sovereignty over Jerusalem and one listing Hebron's Old City—and with it the Cave of the Patriarchs—as a Palestinian World Heritage Site. But the fact there will be no anti-Israeli resolutions put to a vote in the coming UNESCO gathering is not due to the lack of trying.

Yediot Ahronot 3 Israeli Judokas take Gold at Tashkent Grand Prix Three judokas; heavyweight Or (Ori) Sasson, lightweight Sagi Muki and half-lightweight Betina Temelkova, all won first place at the Tashkent Grand Prix 2017, taking place in Uzbekistan. This places Israel at the top of the tournament bracket, with two more golden medals than any other country. Sasson, 27, returned to the mat after a break of a year and two months, winning in the +100 kg (+220 pounds) category on Sunday after beating Iurii Krakovetskii from Kyrgyzstan, who finished third in the Asian Championship this year. This is Sasson's first competition since he won the bronze medal at the in Rio a year ago. See also, “Watch: Hatikvah played in Uzbekistan as Israel's Sagi Muki wins gold in judo” (Jerusalem Online) 3

Yediot Ahronot – October 8, 2017

Israel-Iran Conflict in Syria Reaching Point of no Return As Tehran keeps ignoring the Israeli warnings against an Iranian expansion in the Middle East, the atmosphere created by the Trump administration against the nuclear agreement is only adding fuel to the fire. The effort to prevent a deterioration will resume immediately after the High Holy Days, but if the diplomatic move fails—Israel is likely headed toward a conflict with Iran.

By Alex Fishman, military correspondent at Yediot Ahronot

• The open conflict taking place between Israel and Iran on Syrian soil is increasingly reaching a point of no return. The Iranian regime, it seems, isn’t taking the public warnings issued by the Israeli defense establishment heads seriously and is hectically pursuing its talks with the Syrian regime, as well as patrols in search of a military airport near Damascus which would serve as a base for the Iranian Revolutionary Guards’ combat squadrons. • At the same time, the Iranians and the Syrians are making progress in the talks for an autonomic Iranian military pier in the Tartus port and the creation of an Iranian division on Syrian soil. Israel, however, has made it clear both to the Iranians and the Syrians, as well as to the Russians, that it will not allow any Iranian presence in Syria, especially war planes or an Iranian pier in the Tartus port. • According to the Israeli policy in the current crisis, there is no diplomatic way of bringing about a significant change in Iran’s regional conduct. Thus the only way to deal with it is by stepping up the sanctions—in other words, punitive measures—or through “a different crisis” in the form of a military threat against Iran, in Syria or in any other arena in the region. The atmosphere created by the Trump administration against the nuclear agreement is contributing to the approaching hurricane. • The effort to prevent a deterioration will resume immediately after the High Holy Days. Russian Defense Minister Sergey Shoygu will arrive in Israel in nine days for a meeting with Defense Minister Avigdor Lieberman and with the defense establishment’s top brass. The next day, the defense minister will leave for the United States for a meeting with Secretary of Defense James Mattis. All these meetings will focus on the Iranian issue, both on the regional level and on the global level, as President Donald Trump keeps alluding to a possible change in the US Policy toward the nuclear agreement with Tehran. • In a Congressional hearing last week, General Mattis voiced his objection to any change in the sanction regime against Iran. In his meeting with Lieberman in Washington, the defense minister is expected to present the Israeli evaluation of the situation, which supports Trump’s stance and points to the three weak links in the nuclear agreement: One, when the agreement expires in 10 years there will be no system for restraining the renewal of the Iranian nuclear race; two, the current agreement allows Iran to pursue the research and development of a nuclear weapon, preventing supervisors from entering dozens of military facilities which are not mentioned in the agreement as sites that must be supervised; and three, the agreement includes no international restraint of the missile development area.

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• In spite of these arguments, it’s unlikely that Israel will be able to change the American defense establishment’s stance on the nuclear issue. It will be more successful in enlisting the Pentagon’s support for stepping up the war on Iran’s subversive expansion in the Middle East, from Yemen to Gaza and Lebanon. A hint of this war was provided Saturday in The Times’ report on an American plan against Hezbollah as part of the war on Iran and its satellites. This war fits very well into the alleged Israeli secret measures against the Iranian expansion in the region and against the arms smuggling. • Unlike his American colleague, the Russian defense minister’s influence on the policy against Iran is marginal, or even nonexistent. Shoygu will simply finalize and execute what Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Russian President Vladimir Putin agreed on in their meeting a month and a half ago. When it comes to renewing the sanctions against Iran, however, Israel and the Russians won’t see eye to eye. • Israel will ask the Russians to prevent the establishment of Iranian bases in Syria and the renewed activity of a missile production facility in Syria that was hit in a mysterious bombing several weeks ago. Israel will also ask the Russians to ensure that the permanent agreement in Syria would include a return of the Golan Heights to the 1974 disengagement agreements, which require full demilitarization on a five-kilometer strip from the borderline and a dilution of forces inside Syria. Israel will even ask to set the Daraa-Damascus road as the line which no Iranian would be allowed to cross toward the west. • So far, the Russians have rejected the Israeli requests on all issues related to the Iranian deployment in Syria. In recent months, however, Israel has been detecting quite a few fundamental differences of opinion between the Iranian and the Russians interests which may benefit Israel. Moreover, the Russians need Israel in several areas, primarily in the intelligence field. While the Russians have already declared victory in Syria twice in the past year, they are still engaged in a daily battle against Islamic State and al-Nusra Front forces resulting in casualties and damage. In this state of affairs, the last thing the Russians need is another front on Syrian soil between Israel, Iran and Hezbollah, which will make it difficult for them to implement the reconciliation policy. • And on the sidelines, in light of the perceived Israeli support for an independent Kurdish state, the Russians will likely ask Israel to keep an even lower profile. If the Israeli diplomatic move fails to bear fruit, we are headed toward a conflict with the Iranians.

SUMMARY: According to the Israeli policy in the current crisis, there is no diplomatic way

of bringing about a significant change in Iran’s regional conduct. Thus the only way to deal with it is by stepping up the sanctions—in other words, punitive measures—or through “a different crisis” in the form of a military threat against Iran, in Syria or in any other arena in

the region. The atmosphere created by the Trump administration against the nuclear agreement is contributing to the approaching hurricane. The effort to prevent a deterioration will resume immediately after the High Holy Days. Russian Defense Minister

Sergey Shoygu will arrive in Israel in nine days for a meeting with Defense Minister Avigdor Lieberman and with the defense establishment’s top brass.

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Ha’aretz – October 9, 2017 Trump’s Iran Ploy Could Isolate Washington, Implicate Netanyahu and Divide American Jews

By Chemi Shalev, columnist at Ha’aretz

• Donald Trump is set to execute a stunning diplomatic reversal. By word of his mouth alone, Trump could cast a fanatic, aggressive and imperialist country like Iran as an innocent victim worthy of international protection. A regime that spreads terror, violence and fear throughout the Middle East will enjoy support and sympathy, while the country that is supposed to be the leader of the free world will find itself isolated and on the defensive. And bragging rights for this brilliant maneuver will rightfully belong to our own Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. • If one is to believe the repeated and sustained leaks in recent days from the White House, Trump intends to refrain from issuing the quarterly certification that Iran is complying with the 2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action. Trump cannot actually claim that Iran is violating the nuclear deal, because it isn’t, but he plans to assert that Tehran is violating the ‘spirit’ of the agreement and that the continued existence of the deal is not in America’s interests. The certification process isn’t actually part of the nuclear deal, but an internal step mandated by Congress, but it could set off a chain reaction that most of the world, with the exception of Trump, Netanyahu and parts of the American right wing, is afraid will end badly. • Such a move by Trump will make him a local hero in Israel, some Arab capitals and among U.S. hawks who have never reconciled with the deal reached by Barack Obama in 2015, but that will probably be the extent of its achievements. Trump intimated over the weekend that we are now in “the calm before the storm” but, like Hurricane Nate that is now homing in on it, the storm is likely to create more havoc in the U.S. than in Iran. A rejection of the deal, even one that isn’t legally binding, will exacerbate tensions with western European allies, who are still trying to persuade Trump to change course. It will give Moscow and Beijing another opportunity to portray Trump as a loose cannon who cannot be trusted. It will cast the United States as a rogue country that does not abide by the agreements it signs. It will paint Trump as a serial pyromaniac who is hell bent on lighting new fires as he struggles to contain his previous flare-ups, most notably with North Korea. • It’s feasible that formally, nothing will actually happen. Trump’s decertification of the Iran deal opens a 60 day window during which the Senate can decide to reimpose sanctions that were suspended because the JCPOA. If and when such a decision will be made, the U.S. will be deemed to have unilaterally abandoned the nuclear accord, but the chances for this happening are slim, despite the GOP majority in the Senate. Until that end result is reached, however, a harsh confrontation between the deal’s supporters and opponents could develop, in which Israel would find itself on the losing side, as it was in 2015. The Jewish

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community, whose fear of Iran is only eclipsed by its loathing for Trump, will be torn apart once again. And if the decertification actually leads to new sanctions that derail the deal and spark conflict or even war between the U.S. and Tehran, Israel will be accused of pushing America too far, as it was during George W. Bush’s Iraq war. This time, however, the allegations will be harder to refute. • Netanyahu is said to have convinced Trump and other American hawks that Washington can and should present Tehran with an ultimatum to “nix it or fix it”. Most of the international community, including American defense officials, believe that the threat is empty, because Tehran would never agree to amend the nuclear deal, especially when most of the world is standing behind it. Most of the world also believes that the continued implementation of the nuclear deal, whatever its deficiencies, dangers and limitations, is infinitely preferable to its revocation. A statement by Trump that Tehran is not living up to its side of the deal, despite assertions to the contrary by the International Atomic Energy Agency, the co-signatories to the deal and most of the intelligence services in the world, is seen in world capitals as reckless to the point of insanity. • There is no doubt that Iran is supplying numerous justifications for an American president to rally an international coalition that would pressure Tehran to curtail its ballistic missile program, its support for terror and its drive to control the Middle East. A statement by Trump that Iran is not complying with the nuclear deal would make such an effort that much harder. It creates conflict within the international community rather than with Iran. Based on prior experience with Trump, it won’t be perceived as a fact-based and principled position against Tehran’s designs, but rather as an egotistical and impulsive attempt to keep campaign promises, erase Obama’s legacy and wipe out his premier foreign policy achievement. In this context, Netanyahu could be accused of cynically exploiting Trump’s weaknesses in order to achieve the victory that was denied him during his ill advised 2015 campaign against Obama. • A sounder and more popular president than Trump might have been able to muster the international and domestic support necessary to pressure Iran, but Trump is spoiling for this fight at a time when his standing is at one of its lowest points ever. Not only does the world view him as an unguided missile, but a new Associated Press poll published on Saturday shows that his domestic support has reached rock bottom, with an approval rating of only 32%, with many Republicans now voicing their dissatisfaction as well. Trump seemed subdued and helpless after the massacre in Las Vegas and maliciously disinclined to help Puerto Rico recover from the devastation wrought by Hurricane Maria. Never one to rest on his thorns, however, Trump made sure to alienate American women over the weekend as well, by exempting employers from covering health insurance meant to offset the cost of buying contraceptives. • Trump has also lost control of the GOP Senate, the body that can reimpose sanctions suspended by the JCPOA and thus violate it. Senior senators such as John McCain and Bob Corker have already made clear that they no longer trust Trump’s judgment and won’t be bound by his policies. Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell, whose relations with Trump are tense as well, has signaled his reluctance to catch the hot potato thrown out by Trump

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and his unwillingness to make the Senate responsible for the cancellation of the deal and the mayhem that might ensue from such a move. Even cabinet secretaries who were personally appointed by Trump are now voicing their reservations in public, from Secretary of Defense James Mattis, who says the U.S. should adhere to the nuclear deal, to Secretary of State Rex Tillerson, who has refrained from denying he called Trump a “moron.” • Many Israelis are praying that there is a method to Trump’s madness. The news website Axios reported this week that Trump himself instructed U.S. officials to describe him as a “crazy guy” in the context of trade talks with South Korea. It’s a well-known negotiation tactic favored by Richard Nixon, for example, and used extensively by Henry Kissinger in the 1970s to persuade the North Vietnamese to end the War in Vietnam. Although they signed the deal, the North Vietnamese waited for the last American soldier to leave their country before reneging on it and conquering the country’s south. The lesson drawn should have been that a president whose popularity is collapsing and who is facing formidable legal complications, as Nixon did in Watergate and Trump could soon face with Russiagate, cannot afford to use the Madman gambit. With Trump there’s an added complication, because it’s not completely clear whether describing him as a “crazy guy” is just a ploy or an actual description of reality.

SUMMARY: A sounder and more popular president than Trump might have been able to muster the international and domestic support necessary to pressure Iran, but Trump is spoiling for this fight at a time when his standing is at one of its lowest points ever. Not only does the world view him as an unguided missile, but a new Associated Press poll published on Saturday shows that his domestic support has reached rock bottom, with an approval rating of only 32%, with many Republicans now voicing their dissatisfaction as well. Trump seemed subdued and helpless after the massacre in Las Vegas and maliciously disinclined to help Puerto Rico recover from the devastation wrought by Hurricane Maria. Never one to rest on his thorns, however, Trump made sure to alienate American women over the weekend as well, by exempting employers from covering health insurance meant to offset the cost of buying contraceptives.

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