THE ISSUE Alberta’s Premier Review of 75 NEWS Politics and Government Vitality FEBRUARY/2019 from

NOTLEY’S DILEMMA: THE RISKS AND “They can always fill some time with new virtue-signalling niche amendment acts, or symbolic bills, or something designed REWARDS OF DROPPING ONE FINAL to make the UCP uncomfortable,” Dr. Bewick said. “Waiting also means they can hope the fearmongering about cuts sinks in, travel around on the government dime making spending announcements, and get as much progress on Trans Mountain BUDGET as possible.” Tim Gerwing This is another plausible scenario. Since the UCP formed, the NDP has introduced numerous pieces of legislation designed at least in part to get the UCP to say or do something problematic. While it’s had some small victories on this front, it’s still looking for its Moby Dick of gaffes. Dr. Bewick knows what they’re looking for, having helped Wildrose dodge numerous Senior Editor: Tim Gerwing Like something you’d find at K-Days, guessing when Premier Rachel Notley will drop the writ – marking the beginning of grenades lobbed by various governments over the years. He recognizes that the NDP, which is running out of hopeful Publisher: Alberta Counsel Alberta’s 30th general election – is turning into something of a fool’s game. Bearing in mind Alberta’s writ period (the official campaign period) lasts 28 days, Alberta’s fixed-election-date legislation prescribes that the next election must be strategies, might use the next session to try and suss out a big one – one that could shift the entire election narrative. ALBERTA COUNSEL called sometime between February 1 and May 3, for an election date between March 1 and May 31. Speculation on the But that means the government needs time. And that likely means it will introduce a budget, negative numbers and all. Legal and Lobby Professionals exact date, however, has been all over the map. For a time, the consensus was that Notley would drop the writ in February, thereby ensuring she would get a high turnout of student voters – a critical voting demographic for the NDP – who wouldn’t “I’m not ruling out April 16 (as the writ drop day after the March 18 throne speech) but my best guess is they hold session Management Consultants for two weeks after the throne speech, release a budget at the end of it so they can go around pre-writ campaigning on Trade-mark Agents yet be in final exams or out of school for summer holidays. But when Notley recently announced that the she would be summoning Alberta’s legislature back to Edmonton for that as government during the constituency break, then drop the writ April 8 for a May 6 election,” Dr. Bewick said, but he added a caveat. “I suspect voters will resent the lame duck use of government resources to campaign for a few more LEDGEVIEW BUILDING a throne speech on March 18, and possibly another entire legislative sitting, she put a pin in that theory, Some say there’s no chance months, and as the UCP demands daily that Notley just call the election, the NDP might decide they are losing more than 800, 9707-110 Street NW they gain by stalling.” Edmonton AB T5K 2L9 but raised an entirely new question in the process: will “they [the NDP] drop a budget P: 780-652-1311 Notley drop one final budget before she drops the According to a recent poll done by Mainstreet F: 780-652-1312 writ? because the numbers would Research, the UCP has a comfortable lead of E: [email protected] The easy answer is no. The books are a sea of red ink be so bad. But their debt and more than 20 points over the NDP in provincial www.AlbertaCounsel.com and one more budget equals one more opportunity for voting intent. The same poll found that Notley and Jason Kenney and the UCP to bludgeon the NDP deficit numbers have always Kenney have near-identical polling numbers government over its fiscal mismanagement of the been bad, so unless the when it comes to personal favourability with The News from Alberta Counsel is Alberta Advantage. But other arguments have voters, however. This metric has been a more Alberta’s premier review of emerged since Notley’s throne speech announcement long-term revenue projections reliable indicator of election outcomes in recent provincial politics and government which highlight scenarios wherein it may be have taken a big hit, I don’t years and has added an element of anxiety for vitality. As an original source of advantageous for the NDP to drop one final budget conservatives in the lead-up to the 2019 political news and commentary, The before sending Albertans on a 28-day election journey. think that’s relevant. campaign, which they are supposed to win handily. It is said in politics that people vote for News will provide a fresh look at Dr. Bill Bewick, Founder of Alberta Right Consulting Dr. Bill Bewick, a conservative policy expert and ” the party leader first, the party second and the legislation, policy, committee founder of Alberta Right Consulting – a local candidate third – meaning the NDP may not debates, the civil service, along with conservative-oriented consulting company – spoke to Alberta Counsel about these potential scenarios. He says for Notley, be in quite as dire of straits as the polls are party updates and events. it’s all about weighing the risks and rewards. suggesting. “Some say there’s no chance they [the NDP] drop a budget because the numbers would be so bad. But their debt and Notley has vowed not to break Alberta’s election law and call a later election (she could ignore or repeal the law and delay deficit numbers have always been bad, so unless the long-term revenue projections have taken a big hit, I don’t think that’s Alberta Counsel for up to a year before running into Canada’s five-year constitutional limit). It is quite possible that within the confines of relevant,” Dr. Bewick said. “I suspect instead they will use new long-term projections to make the case that even they can Alberta’s fixed-election-date legislation, Notley still has not decided when she is going to drop the writ. Undoubtedly, NDP We work with organizations to balance the budget at some point, but more importantly they can get a whole raft of capital spending promises on paper strategists are weighing the numerous options available to the government, but all indications are the NDP needs more navigate their way through the that their candidates can then take to their ridings and time. For what? The NDP may not even know yet. confusing network that is claim the UCP will cut.” associated with government. We They can always fill some This is a very plausible scenario. Fully understanding help our clients connect with those that the cornerstone of the UCP’s policy platform will be“ time with new virtue-signalling who are important in shaping public eliminating the carbon tax, Notley has already made niche amendment acts, or policy and ensure your messaging is numerous project announcements where funding is tied effectively communicated to to carbon tax revenues, like the Green Line LRT project symbolic bills, or something decision makers. in Calgary and the Valley Line West LRT project in designed to make the UCP Edmonton – which, for his part, Kenney says he supports, albeit without a specific funding plan. uncomfortable. To subscribe to The News from Dr. Bewick isn’t just a policy wonk throwing stones from Dr. Bill Bewick, Founder of Alberta” Right Consulting Alberta Counsel, please visit the safe confines of academia [he teaches part time at www.albertacounsel.com/news Athabasca University]. He was integral to past Wildrose campaigns as the party’s policy director from 2010 to 2017, even writing most of its platform for the 2015 election, which saw Wildrose weather a catastrophic blow to its credibility caused by the mass floor crossing in 2015 and go on to form the largest provincial opposition since Laurence Decore’s Alberta Liberals in 1993. Dr. Bewick has experience in reading the government tea leaves from the outside and sees some familiar legislative and government-funded tools the NDP is likely to use to improve its situation before the inevitable election call. He suspects the NDP will not call the election right after the throne speech, but rather bring the house back. THE Alberta’s Premier Review of NEWS Politics and Government Vitality from

NOTLEY’S DILEMMA: THE RISKS AND “They can always fill some time with new virtue-signalling niche amendment acts, or symbolic bills, or something designed REWARDS OF DROPPING ONE FINAL to make the UCP uncomfortable,” Dr. Bewick said. “Waiting also means they can hope the fearmongering about cuts sinks in, travel around on the government dime making spending announcements, and get as much progress on Trans Mountain BUDGET as possible.” Tim Gerwing This is another plausible scenario. Since the UCP formed, the NDP has introduced numerous pieces of legislation designed at least in part to get the UCP to say or do something problematic. While it’s had some small victories on this front, it’s still Like something you’d find at K-Days, guessing when Premier Rachel Notley will drop the writ – marking the beginning of looking for its Moby Dick of gaffes. Dr. Bewick knows what they’re looking for, having helped Wildrose dodge numerous Alberta’s 30th general election – is turning into something of a fool’s game. Bearing in mind Alberta’s writ period (the grenades lobbed by various governments over the years. He recognizes that the NDP, which is running out of hopeful official campaign period) lasts 28 days, Alberta’s fixed-election-date legislation prescribes that the next election must be strategies, might use the next session to try and suss out a big one – one that could shift the entire election narrative. called sometime between February 1 and May 3, for an election date between March 1 and May 31. Speculation on the But that means the government needs time. And that likely means it will introduce a budget, negative numbers and all. exact date, however, has been all over the map. For a time, the consensus was that Notley would drop the writ in February, thereby ensuring she would get a high turnout of student voters – a critical voting demographic for the NDP – who wouldn’t “I’m not ruling out April 16 (as the writ drop day after the March 18 throne speech) but my best guess is they hold session yet be in final exams or out of school for summer holidays. But when Notley recently announced that the she would be for two weeks after the throne speech, release a budget at the end of it so they can go around pre-writ campaigning on summoning Alberta’s legislature back to Edmonton for TIM GERWING that as government during the constituency break, then drop the writ April 8 for a May 6 election,” Dr. Bewick said, but he a throne speech on March 18, and possibly another Feature Writer added a caveat. “I suspect voters will resent the lame duck use of government resources to campaign for a few more entire legislative sitting, she put a pin in that theory, months, and as the UCP demands daily that Notley just call the election, the NDP might decide they are losing more than they gain by stalling.” but raised an entirely new question in the process: will Tim Gerwing is a former journalist Notley drop one final budget before she drops the and communications officer. He’s According to a recent poll done by Mainstreet writ? Research, the UCP has a comfortable lead of a graduate of the University of My best guess is they hold session The easy answer is no. The books are a sea of red ink more than 20 points over the NDP in provincial Saskatchewan and Grant and one more budget equals one more opportunity for voting intent. The same poll found that Notley and“ for two weeks after the throne Jason Kenney and the UCP to bludgeon the NDP MacEwan University. His Kenney have near-identical polling numbers speech, release a budget at the government over its fiscal mismanagement of the experiences span Calgary City when it comes to personal favourability with voters, however. This metric has been a more end of it so they can go around Alberta Advantage. But other arguments have Hall, the Alberta Legislature and emerged since Notley’s throne speech announcement reliable indicator of election outcomes in recent Young Diplomats of Canada. pre-writ campaigning on that as which highlight scenarios wherein it may be years and has added an element of anxiety for advantageous for the NDP to drop one final budget conservatives in the lead-up to the 2019 government during the before sending Albertans on a 28-day election journey. campaign, which they are supposed to win handily. It is said in politics that people vote for constituency break. Dr. Bill Bewick, a conservative policy expert and the party leader first, the party second and the Dr. Bill Bewick, Founder of Alberta Right Consulting founder of Alberta Right Consulting – a ” local candidate third – meaning the NDP may not conservative-oriented consulting company – spoke to Alberta Counsel about these potential scenarios. He says for Notley, be in quite as dire of straits as the polls are it’s all about weighing the risks and rewards. suggesting. “Some say there’s no chance they [the NDP] drop a budget because the numbers would be so bad. But their debt and Notley has vowed not to break Alberta’s election law and call a later election (she could ignore or repeal the law and delay deficit numbers have always been bad, so unless the long-term revenue projections have taken a big hit, I don’t think that’s for up to a year before running into Canada’s five-year constitutional limit). It is quite possible that within the confines of relevant,” Dr. Bewick said. “I suspect instead they will use new long-term projections to make the case that even they can Alberta’s fixed-election-date legislation, Notley still has not decided when she is going to drop the writ. Undoubtedly, NDP balance the budget at some point, but more importantly they can get a whole raft of capital spending promises on paper strategists are weighing the numerous options available to the government, but all indications are the NDP needs more that their candidates can then take to their ridings and time. For what? The NDP may not even know yet. claim the UCP will cut.” This is a very plausible scenario. Fully understanding that the cornerstone of the UCP’s policy platform will be eliminating the carbon tax, Notley has already made numerous project announcements where funding is tied to carbon tax revenues, like the Green Line LRT project in Calgary and the Valley Line West LRT project in Edmonton – which, for his part, Kenney says he supports, albeit without a specific funding plan. Dr. Bewick isn’t just a policy wonk throwing stones from the safe confines of academia [he teaches part time at Athabasca University]. He was integral to past Wildrose campaigns as the party’s policy director from 2010 to 2017, even writing most of its platform for the 2015 election, which saw Wildrose weather a catastrophic blow to its credibility caused by the mass floor crossing in 2015 and go on to form the largest provincial opposition since Laurence Decore’s Alberta Liberals in 1993. Dr. Bewick has experience in reading the government tea leaves from the outside and sees some familiar legislative and government-funded tools the NDP is likely to use to improve its situation before the inevitable election call. He suspects the NDP will not call the election right after the throne speech, but rather bring the house back. THENEWS from

Photo Credit: Brendan Brown ZACK POLITICAL EVENTS ZIOLKOWSKI Associate NDP – Coffee with Lorne Dach UCP – Meet and Greet with Demetrios Nicolaides Tuesday, February 5 @ 6 p.m. Monday, February 11 @ 5:30 p.m. Location: Private Residence, Edmonton, AB Location: Metropolitan Centre, 333 - 4 Ave. SW, Calgary, AB After graduating from MacEwan -Join UCP Calgary-Bow candidate Demetrios Nicolaides for a -Join Edmonton-McClung MLA Lorne Dach for a coffee University, Zack started working fundraising event. meet-and-greet fundraising event. for the former PC government as -Tix: free (www.albertandp.ca) -Tix: $150 (www.unitedconservative.ca) a political staffer and moving into NDP – Meet and Greet with Lori Sigurdson UCP – 2019 Election Readiness Conference a role as the Director of Research Wednesday, February 6 @ 6 p.m. Friday, February 15 @ 5 p.m. Location: Private Residence, Edmonton, AB Location: Edmonton Expo Centre, 7515 118 Ave. NW, Edmonton, and Communications for -Join Edmonton-Riverview MLA Lori Sigurdson for a AB Government Members prior to the -Join the UCP for its 2019 Election Readiness Conference in meet-and-greet fundraising event. 2015 election. He also has an -Tix: for information email: Edmonton. extensive policy background [email protected] (www.albertandp.ca) -Tix: $129 - $500 (www.unitedconservative.ca) including work surrounding the NDP – An Evening with Sarah Hoffman and Danielle UCP – Together again for a SECOND time! Municipal Government Act on Larivee Friday, February 15 @ 5 p.m. Wednesday, February 6 @ 7 p.m. Location: Ironwood in Inglewood, 1229 9 Ave. SE, Calgary, AB behalf of the Alberta Urban Location: Private Residence, High Prairie, AB -Join UCP Calgary-Buffalo candidate Tom Olsen, and his band Municipalities Association. -Join NDP Health Minister Sarah Hoffman and Children the Wreckage, along with UCP Chestermere-Strathmore Services Minister Danielle Larivee for a private candidate Leela Aheer, for a concern fundraising event. fundraising event. -Tix: pay what you can (www.unitedconservative.ca) -Tix: for information email: [email protected] (www.albertandp.ca)

KEY INFLUENCER PROFILE

JAMIE MOZESON UCP Deputy Campaign Manager By Zach Ziolkowski

Since graduating from the University of Alberta with a degree in political science, Jamie Mozeson’s life has been filled with politics. She worked as a high-level staffer in both provincial and federal conservative governments, including with former Alberta Premier Photo credit: Twitter Jim Prentice and former Prime Minister Stephen Harper. In 2016, she ran for a CPC nomination to fill Rona Ambrose’s vacant seat in Sturgeon River-Parkland. And most recently, she served as director of operations for the UCP before transitioning into her current role as the party’s deputy campaign manager for the 2019 election. Jamie will be one of the architects of the UCP’s election strategy in 2019. With her wealth of knowledge, and extensive political experience, it is anticipated that she will likely also play a key role in a UCP government, should the party form power. Although Jamie will have her hands full with her duties as deputy campaign manager, she will likely find time to root on her mother-in-law, Laurie Mozeson, who won a UCP nomination in 2018. Laurie, a federal judge, will be taking on Alberta Party Leader Stephen Mandel and incumbent NDP MLA Lorne Dach in Edmonton-McClung, in the upcoming election. Jamie clearly has a longstanding relationship, as well as the confidence of UCP Leader Jason Kenney, making her somebody to watch in Alberta’s political scene, now and into the future. THENEWS from

CAM MACKAY Associate ARE SHORT-TERM RENTAL REGULATIONS TOO LAX? Cam MacKay Cam MacKay is a graduate of the University of Alberta and a former Across the world, government’s have witnessed the rapid growth of short-term rental companies such as AirBnB, VRBO and City Councillor at the City of St. Expedia as technology has now made it possible for a homeowner to sell a product comparable to a hotel room. These new Albert. In 2018, he joined Alberta micro-hotels have upset the traditional Euclidean zoning principles upon which nearly every major city in North America (with Counsel's government relations Houston, Texas being the sole exception) has been planned around. Euclidean land-use zoning separates commercial and residential properties to ensure that residential property owners can enjoy their properties to their full extent. Hotels are kept team. to commercial corridors so the light pollution, noise and traffic that accompany them are separated from property owners looking for peace and quiet. Short-term rentals have disrupted this quiet enjoyment and created a nuisance factor for many homeowners who did not choose to live near a hotel. Another major issue with short-term rentals is the “free rider” problem coined by economists. Short-term rentals do not pay GST, commercial property taxes, do not have to conform to requirements for safety in building codes that apply to hotels, do not pay corporate income tax, do not pay the provincial tourism levy and do not contribute to any local destination marketing fees. Meanwhile, short-term rentals consume the services delivered by municipal governments, such as sidewalks, roads, local tourism marketing, parking, policing and fire service – just to name a few – despite the fact they do not pay their fair share of taxes, hence the “free rider” problem. Essentially, this “free rider” problem creates a huge monetary cost to taxpayers. The cost to taxpayers of short-term rentals avoiding the Alberta provincial tourism levy alone is in the millions of dollars annually. Compounding the problem further is that the hotels which do pay for these services are losing market share and closing their doors due to the cost inequities in the marketplace, thereby making the “free rider” problem even worse. In response to this disruption in land use and the “free rider” problem, municipalities across the world have started to enact some regulations around short-term rentals. KEITH PRIDGEN Vancouver recently approved regulations that allow both homeowners and renters to list their primary residences as Associate short-term rentals. Renters must have approval from a landlord while homeowners that are part of a strata must ensure that short-term rentals are allowed under the strata bylaws. The person renting out a short-term rental must also have a business license and be offering a residence that meets some basic safety regulations. British Columbia has also worked out an Keith joined Alberta Counsel as a agreement with the short-term rental industry to collect PST and the municipal and regional district tax. Law Researcher and Analyst In Toronto, city council recently approved new regulations for short-term rentals. The new rules require short-term rental following several years as a companies to obtain a license and short-term rental operators to register with the city and pay a municipal accommodation tax political staffer at the Legislative of four per cent. Assembly of Alberta, working for Canmore has some of the most short-term rentals per capita in the country and has examined the issue thoroughly. They have the official opposition. He followed up by putting in place comprehensive legislation that addresses the nuisance factor of short-term rentals and has received his Juris Doctor (Cum also addressed the taxpayer subsidization of short-term rentals and the financial inequity with hotels. Short-term rentals have been put into land-use zoning as a category called “tourist homes” and there are areas of Canmore where short-term rentals Laude) from the Florida State are permitted and areas where they are not. This reduces the nuisance factor for residential homeowners and ensures that University College of Law in 2017. future land-use planning in the community can occur in a more orderly manner. He is a member of the Federalist Canmore also has a stringent enforcement mechanism in place whereby city staff have a computer system that searches for Society and a Blackstone Fellow. short-term rentals in the community. If a short-term rental is listed and the property is not registered with the city, a $2,500 fine is issued, with a follow up fine of $5,000 for repeat offenders. Canmore has addressed all the big issues related to short-term rentals and still has a thriving tourism marketplace with over 200 short-term rentals on record at AirBnB (not bad for a town of 14,000). Addressing the land-use problems and the taxpayer subsidy around short-term rentals is something that municipal councils across Alberta and Canada will have to start addressing sooner rather than later. THE Alberta’s Premier Review of NEWS Politics and Government Vitality from

AT A GLANCE

In the Media In the Legislature A UCP candidate landed herself in hot water this week The NDP government acquired one fifth of the land it after tweeting information about the carbon tax that needs to build the controversial Springbank dam west of turned out to be false. Last week, Michaela Glasgo, the Calgary. Transportation Minister Brian Mason said UCP candidate for Brooks-Medicine Hat, stated on Twitter Tuesday the province bought two square kilometres of that the carbon tax is costing her church "$50,000 this land from a family which has a cattle ranch in the year alone." The large figure was called into question by Springbank area, calling the move "absolutely numerous critics, and days later, Glasgo clarified that the necessary" to protect Calgary from another major flood. $50,000 figure represents the total increase in her As of May of last year, the project was expected to be church’s fixed operating costs between 2017 and 2019. completed in 2022. Trevor Tombe, an economist from the University of PASCAL RYFFEL The NDP government has rescheduled public Calgary said, "I see much more frequently false claims Director of Government consultations regarding a controversial decision to turn around the carbon tax spreading and being promoted Relations Bighorn Country in western Alberta into a provincial park. much more often than legitimate concerns with the Earlier consultations were cancelled by Environment carbon tax." Active with the provincial NDP Minister Shannon Phillips over safety concerns that were and a proud party member for UCP Leader Jason Kenney told a group of Alberta real later proved to not be credible. estate agents that if the UCP is elected later this year, he Premier Rachel Notley and officials from Value Creation over ten years, Pascal’s political will ask CMHC to drop mortgage-stress test rules for Inc., a Calgary-based energy company, jointly announced experience includes stints as both Alberta. "If you elect a United Conservative government, a $2 billion investment in a new upgrading facility east of we are going to go to bat for [those]… who are being provincial and federal organizer, Edmonton that the province says will create 2,000 new pushed away from home ownership because of the in addition to running in the jobs. The facility will upgrade diluted oilsands bitumen to prejudicial, regional, unfair stress test." CMHC responded a type of crude blend that flows easier through pipelines Edmonton-Meadowlark on Twitter, saying the organization "doesn't advise on and uses less capacity. The province says the site is constituency in the 2008 policy, but don't set it. Decisions on mortgage rules are shovel ready and the plant is expected to be operational made by Finance Canada." provincial election. Pascal spent by 2022. four years as the NDP Caucus In nomination news, NDP MLA Graham Sucha won his Preliminary hearings are underway for two caregivers party's nomination in Calgary-Shaw. The NDP nominated Outreach Coordinator at the who have been charged in the death of Serenity, a Kari Whan in Bonnyville-Cold Lake. NDP MLA Nicole four-year-old girl whose death while in care became a Legislature and was a member of Goehring won her party's nomination in Edmonton - dominating topic of discussion in Alberta's legislature. A the pre-election candidate search Castle Downs. NDP MLA Deborah Drever won her party's man and woman have been charged with failing to nomination in Calgary - Bow. And Marilyn Burns' Alberta committee while the NDP was in provide the necessaries of life for Serenity, but haven't Advantage Party nominated Ronald Malowany in Fort opposition. Along with a strong been named. Saskatchewan-Vegreville. academic background, Pascal And despite pledging to run, NDP MLA Sandra Jansen adds deep and current knowledge now says she won't be running in 2019, ending a of Alberta’s new government to tumultuous political career that saw her cross the floor the Alberta Counsel team. from the PCs to the NDP, where she eventually took up a role in cabinet. The UCP, meanwhile, cleared Calgary - East candidate Peter Singh, who had been accused of fraud by his party nomination opponents, of wrongdoing. In a release, the party said there was no proof found of the allegations that had been made, following an investigation by an independent authority. THENEWS from

RIDING SPOTLIGHT EDMONTON- CENTRE Tim Gerwing Edmonton-Centre remains a political headache for Alberta political strategists as its largest voting demographic is arguably one of the least reliable ones – condo dwellers. This has resulted in the riding being represented by almost every major party since its inception in 1959, including Social Credit, PC, Liberal and NDP. PARTIES FACE STRICT SPENDING RULES One of Alberta’s oldest ridings, the history of Edmonton-Centre dates IN 2019 to the beginning of single-member Keith Pridgen districts over single transferable vote super districts. The rules for the upcoming provincial election are mostly set out in the Election Act and the Election Finances and The riding had the closest thing it’s ever had to a stalwart Contributions Disclosure Act (EFCDA). One of the recent changes to the EFCDA is the reduction in party spending limits during representative in Liberal Laurie a general election. Section 41.2(1) limits parties to $2 million in campaign expenditures with very few exceptions. One of the Blakeman, who comfortably most notable exceptions, however, is that campaign expenditures subject to the limit do not include reasonable incidental represented the riding from 1997 expenses incurred by or on behalf of volunteers. In a province-wide campaign these kinds of reimbursed volunteer expenses to 2015. Blakeman’s socially progressive firebrand appeared to could well be in the tens of thousands of dollars. be a perfect fit for the young, Campaign teams are well along in the process of developing campaign strategies and setting out province-wide budgets urban riding – but in 2015, Blakeman was crushed by Rachel within this $2 million limit. One of the first steps in looking at the likely campaign budgets is a contextual analysis. Prior to the Notley’s “orange wave” and was current limit, Alberta’s political parties really did operate in the Wild West – no campaign spending limits existed and sky high replaced by NDP MLA David individual (and corporate) contribution limits made accessing cash extremely easy. Shepherd, who received more than 50 per cent of the vote. Blakeman’s stunning loss served as a testament to the unreliable nature of Edmonton-Centre’s nomadic voter-base – students and young professionals not permanently rooted in the province. Despite its flakey voting The PCs, with their over-40 years of massive campaign budgets, peaked at $4.6 million in 2012 and spent $4.3 million in a behaviours, the NDP is counting devastating loss in 2015. Wildrose, using almost entirely grassroots fundraising, spent near-record amounts in 2012 as well, on Edmonton-Centre to come with a substantially smaller budget in 2015 (the legacy of floor-crossing and a brand-new leader likely playing significant through for it in 2019. Anything roles). The governing NDP only spent $1.6 million in 2015, earning a government for a tremendously low dollars-per-seat ratio short of a victory in ($30,000), substantially less than the $76,000 per seat incurred by the PCs in 2015. Edmonton-Centre – a pillar to the party’s Edmonton base – would be Based on the latest fundraising figures only the NDP and UCP will have to spend carefully in the 2019 election. The Liberals, a colossal disaster. Alberta Party, Freedom Conservative Party and Green Party do not have anywhere near $2 million, nor can they sneak in Since 2015, Shepherd has worked 11th-hour, Katz-style contributions due to the amended EFCDA. The 2019 election will surely be a two-horse race. to tap into Edmonton-Centre’s condo-dwelling community. In One of the biggest expenditures for any province-wide campaign is tour costs, especially for parties operating a bus. The next 2015, he was the only provincial biggest cost is paid media. A 30-second tv spot broadcast to the whole province several times could theoretically eat up the candidate who sought permission whole $2 million budget. Other potentially large costs include salaries and honoraria for key staff, although in a relatively short to access many condo buildings and drop-off his campaign campaign cycle these costs are generally low. IT infrastructure costs, such as databases and voter contact management literature. Now, he has the powers systems can run in the thousands of dollars, as well. Should a party choose to conduct persuasive or push polling, those costs of incumbency on his side, in will count towards the limit as this would be deemed campaign advertising. addition to his downtown savvy – meaning Shepherd is the closest The costs are endless but the funds are most assuredly not. With the new spending cap the NDP and UCP will find themselves thing the NDP has to a sure thing trying to efficiently spend as much as possible. While the numbers in Alberta (and in many other jurisdictions) do not guarantee in 2019. a win to the party that spends the most, both the NDP and UCP will spend as close to the $2 million mark as they can. As such, both parties should expect thorough investigations by the new Elections Commissioner and very likely we will see warnings and sanctions meted out to more than one party and candidate. The parties’ experience this election may well indicate the political appetite for keeping the rules as they are now or if yet another change will come – especially if the UCP forms government.