THE ISSUE Alberta’s Premier Review of 75 NEWS Politics and Government Vitality FEBRUARY/2019 from NOTLEY’S DILEMMA: THE RISKS AND “They can always fill some time with new virtue-signalling niche amendment acts, or symbolic bills, or something designed REWARDS OF DROPPING ONE FINAL to make the UCP uncomfortable,” Dr. Bewick said. “Waiting also means they can hope the fearmongering about cuts sinks in, travel around on the government dime making spending announcements, and get as much progress on Trans Mountain BUDGET as possible.” Tim Gerwing This is another plausible scenario. Since the UCP formed, the NDP has introduced numerous pieces of legislation designed at least in part to get the UCP to say or do something problematic. While it’s had some small victories on this front, it’s still looking for its Moby Dick of gaffes. Dr. Bewick knows what they’re looking for, having helped Wildrose dodge numerous Senior Editor: Tim Gerwing Like something you’d find at K-Days, guessing when Premier Rachel Notley will drop the writ – marking the beginning of grenades lobbed by various governments over the years. He recognizes that the NDP, which is running out of hopeful Publisher: Alberta Counsel Alberta’s 30th general election – is turning into something of a fool’s game. Bearing in mind Alberta’s writ period (the official campaign period) lasts 28 days, Alberta’s fixed-election-date legislation prescribes that the next election must be strategies, might use the next session to try and suss out a big one – one that could shift the entire election narrative. ALBERTA COUNSEL called sometime between February 1 and May 3, for an election date between March 1 and May 31. Speculation on the But that means the government needs time. And that likely means it will introduce a budget, negative numbers and all. Legal and Lobby Professionals exact date, however, has been all over the map. For a time, the consensus was that Notley would drop the writ in February, thereby ensuring she would get a high turnout of student voters – a critical voting demographic for the NDP – who wouldn’t “I’m not ruling out April 16 (as the writ drop day after the March 18 throne speech) but my best guess is they hold session Management Consultants for two weeks after the throne speech, release a budget at the end of it so they can go around pre-writ campaigning on Trade-mark Agents yet be in final exams or out of school for summer holidays. But when Notley recently announced that the she would be summoning Alberta’s legislature back to Edmonton for that as government during the constituency break, then drop the writ April 8 for a May 6 election,” Dr. Bewick said, but he added a caveat. “I suspect voters will resent the lame duck use of government resources to campaign for a few more LEDGEVIEW BUILDING a throne speech on March 18, and possibly another entire legislative sitting, she put a pin in that theory, Some say there’s no chance months, and as the UCP demands daily that Notley just call the election, the NDP might decide they are losing more than 800, 9707-110 Street NW they gain by stalling.” Edmonton AB T5K 2L9 but raised an entirely new question in the process: will “they [the NDP] drop a budget P: 780-652-1311 Notley drop one final budget before she drops the According to a recent poll done by Mainstreet F: 780-652-1312 writ? because the numbers would Research, the UCP has a comfortable lead of E: [email protected] The easy answer is no. The books are a sea of red ink be so bad. But their debt and more than 20 points over the NDP in provincial www.AlbertaCounsel.com and one more budget equals one more opportunity for voting intent. The same poll found that Notley and Jason Kenney and the UCP to bludgeon the NDP deficit numbers have always Kenney have near-identical polling numbers government over its fiscal mismanagement of the been bad, so unless the when it comes to personal favourability with The News from Alberta Counsel is Alberta Advantage. But other arguments have voters, however. This metric has been a more Alberta’s premier review of emerged since Notley’s throne speech announcement long-term revenue projections reliable indicator of election outcomes in recent provincial politics and government which highlight scenarios wherein it may be have taken a big hit, I don’t years and has added an element of anxiety for vitality. As an original source of advantageous for the NDP to drop one final budget conservatives in the lead-up to the 2019 political news and commentary, The before sending Albertans on a 28-day election journey. think that’s relevant. campaign, which they are supposed to win handily. It is said in politics that people vote for News will provide a fresh look at Dr. Bill Bewick, Founder of Alberta Right Consulting Dr. Bill Bewick, a conservative policy expert and ” the party leader first, the party second and the legislation, policy, committee founder of Alberta Right Consulting – a local candidate third – meaning the NDP may not debates, the civil service, along with conservative-oriented consulting company – spoke to Alberta Counsel about these potential scenarios. He says for Notley, be in quite as dire of straits as the polls are party updates and events. it’s all about weighing the risks and rewards. suggesting. “Some say there’s no chance they [the NDP] drop a budget because the numbers would be so bad. But their debt and Notley has vowed not to break Alberta’s election law and call a later election (she could ignore or repeal the law and delay deficit numbers have always been bad, so unless the long-term revenue projections have taken a big hit, I don’t think that’s Alberta Counsel for up to a year before running into Canada’s five-year constitutional limit). It is quite possible that within the confines of relevant,” Dr. Bewick said. “I suspect instead they will use new long-term projections to make the case that even they can Alberta’s fixed-election-date legislation, Notley still has not decided when she is going to drop the writ. Undoubtedly, NDP We work with organizations to balance the budget at some point, but more importantly they can get a whole raft of capital spending promises on paper strategists are weighing the numerous options available to the government, but all indications are the NDP needs more navigate their way through the that their candidates can then take to their ridings and time. For what? The NDP may not even know yet. confusing network that is claim the UCP will cut.” associated with government. We They can always fill some This is a very plausible scenario. Fully understanding help our clients connect with those that the cornerstone of the UCP’s policy platform will be“ time with new virtue-signalling who are important in shaping public eliminating the carbon tax, Notley has already made niche amendment acts, or policy and ensure your messaging is numerous project announcements where funding is tied effectively communicated to to carbon tax revenues, like the Green Line LRT project symbolic bills, or something decision makers. in Calgary and the Valley Line West LRT project in designed to make the UCP Edmonton – which, for his part, Kenney says he supports, albeit without a specific funding plan. uncomfortable. To subscribe to The News from Dr. Bewick isn’t just a policy wonk throwing stones from Dr. Bill Bewick, Founder of Alberta” Right Consulting Alberta Counsel, please visit the safe confines of academia [he teaches part time at www.albertacounsel.com/news Athabasca University]. He was integral to past Wildrose campaigns as the party’s policy director from 2010 to 2017, even writing most of its platform for the 2015 election, which saw Wildrose weather a catastrophic blow to its credibility caused by the mass floor crossing in 2015 and go on to form the largest provincial opposition since Laurence Decore’s Alberta Liberals in 1993. Dr. Bewick has experience in reading the government tea leaves from the outside and sees some familiar legislative and government-funded tools the NDP is likely to use to improve its situation before the inevitable election call. He suspects the NDP will not call the election right after the throne speech, but rather bring the house back. THE Alberta’s Premier Review of NEWS Politics and Government Vitality from NOTLEY’S DILEMMA: THE RISKS AND “They can always fill some time with new virtue-signalling niche amendment acts, or symbolic bills, or something designed REWARDS OF DROPPING ONE FINAL to make the UCP uncomfortable,” Dr. Bewick said. “Waiting also means they can hope the fearmongering about cuts sinks in, travel around on the government dime making spending announcements, and get as much progress on Trans Mountain BUDGET as possible.” Tim Gerwing This is another plausible scenario. Since the UCP formed, the NDP has introduced numerous pieces of legislation designed at least in part to get the UCP to say or do something problematic. While it’s had some small victories on this front, it’s still Like something you’d find at K-Days, guessing when Premier Rachel Notley will drop the writ – marking the beginning of looking for its Moby Dick of gaffes. Dr. Bewick knows what they’re looking for, having helped Wildrose dodge numerous Alberta’s 30th general election – is turning into something of a fool’s game.