Free Cash Flow as a Proven Measurement of Quality Understanding the Terms A Source for Free Cash Flow Growing Wealth Free cash flow is the cash remaining after a company has paid:
1 The goal of most investors is to achieve financial security. High Free cash flow can be used to: free cash flow is an indicator of a company’s financial strength.
2 Positive free cash flow indicates Free Cash Flow Yield a company is generating more cash Free cash Free Cash Flow than it needs to run the business and flow yield = Enterprise Value can invest in growth opportunities. (FCFY) (Market Cap + Debt - Cash)
3 Free cash flow yield can determine an investor’s payback Companies generating high free period: Higher free cash flow yield = shorter payback period cash flow yields have the ability to FCFY 1% 2% 5% 10% grow dividends over time and produce Years to pay back all 100 50 20 10 debt and equity holders Years Years Years Years better earnings.
4 Using strategies that are “Equity Valuation: A Survey of Professional Practice.” 80 constantly re-evaluating and is the key to owning 70 66 rebalancing 63 15% of analysts surveyed 60 use free cash flow yield quality companies generating high 55 to evaluate investments. free cash flow. 50
40 37 P/E (Price to Earnings) ratio is share price divided by the 33 32 last twelve months earnings per share. (1)Includes multiples based on forecast operation income and Analysts Surveyed % Of 30 net income. (2) EBITDA - Earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and 20 amortization. 15 (3) Includes multiples based on free cash flow to equity and 9 free cash flow to firm. 10 (4)Includes multiples based on trailing operating income and net income. 0 Forward EV Price Price Dividend Free Free Trailing P/E -to- -to- -to- Yield Cash Cash P/E Ratio1 EBITDA2 Book Sales Flow Flow Ratio4 -to- Yield Price3
Source: Pinto, J., Robinson, T., and John D. Stowe, 2015, CFA Institute. Free Cash Flow Yield Is an Important Valuation Metric In the chart below, free cash flow yield has the highest return with the fewest periods of negative trailing twelve month returns. Valuation Metrics (12 Month Rolling) 12/31/1991 - 12/31/2020 18.00%
17.00% FCF/EV 16.00%
FCF/Price 15.00% CFO/EV CFO/Price Price/Sales 14.00%
13.00% Price/Earnings Dividend Yield 12.00% Price/Book Annualized Return (%) Return Annualized
11.00%
Russell 1000 10.00%
9.00%
8.00% 12.00% 14.00% 16.00% 18.00% 20.00% 22.00% 24.00% 26.00% % of Negative 12 Month Periods Chart Key: FCF/Price: Free Cash Flow/Price FCF/EV: Free Cash Flow/Enterprise Value CFO/Price: Cash Flow From Operations/Price CFO/EV: Cash Flow From Operations/Enterprise Value Price/Book: Price/Book Value Source: FactSet. Data calculated based on the top 100 companies in the Russell 1000 Index excluding financials for each valuation metric. Free Cash Flow Yield Outperforms Over Time In the chart below, companies with the highest FCFY (1st Decile) outperform companies with the lowest FCFY (10th Decile) over time.
Russell 1000 by Free Cash Flow Yield 12/31/1991 - 12/31/2020 20
17.02 15.64 1 13.26 12.69 11.59 11.01
10 9.60 9.27 7.97