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Draft at 8-19-2013 8-19-2013 at Draft August 19, 2013 Mr. Richard Sawyer Georgia World Congress Center Authority 285 Andrew Young International Blvd. Atlanta, Georgia 30313 Dear Mr. Sawyer: In accordance with our engagement letter dated July 10, 2013, we have completed our analysis of the market-based implications associated with the planned development of a convention oriented hotel (“the Subject”, the “Project”, or the “Hotel”) to be located adjacent to buildings B and C of the Georgia World Congress Center (“GWCC”) in the West Plaza area. This report summarizes our approach to the assignment as well as our findings and conclusions. Study Objectives PKF Hospitality Research, LLC (PKF-HR) was engaged to recommend the scope of Hotel (in terms of size, services, amenities and overall positioning) that would be appropriate for the subject site; and, assuming that the facility is developed and opened in 2017, to estimate the potential levels of market and financial8-19-2013 support for the Project. Methodology at We approached the assignment in two phases. Phase One: Comparable Market Data Analysis 1. We interviewed key personnel at the Georgia World Congress Center Authority (“GWCCA”), the Atlanta Convention and Visitors Bureau (“ACVB”), and the Atlanta Falcons; reviewedDraft studies and data provided, and interviewed key clients of the GWCC to determine the current and medium term situation with regards to conventions and lodging needs in Downtown Atlanta. 2. We analyzed the Downtown lodging market, the dynamics of the GWCC, focus group data and client interview data and prepared a SWOT analysis for the Project. 3. We reviewed and analyzed the performance of the Downtown Atlanta Market as well as comparable convention cities for periods before and after a new convention- oriented hotel and/or a new or expanded meetings/events venue opened, as it PKF Hospitality Research, LLC | 3475 Lenox Road, Suite 720 | Atlanta, Georgia 30326 TEL: (404) 842-1150 | FAX: (404) 842-1165 | www.pkfc.com Mr. Richard Sawyer Page 2 August 19, 2013 relates to absorption of supply and latent demand, and the impact on average daily rates. We analyzed the relationship between the addition of new hotels into a market and the increase in demand realized for comparable hotels in similar situations. Using the Hotel Horizons® forecasting model, we controlled for growth in demand and isolated any latent demand that the new hotel caused to be absorbed by entering the market. Phase Two: Detailed Analysis of the Potential Market Support for the Project 1. We developed conclusions and recommendations regarding: a. Identified market sources of demand for a Hotel at the Subject location. b. Specific facilities and services that would be needed to attract and accommodate the identified demand sources, including: i. Number and size of guest rooms ii. Number and size of meeting rooms iii. Food and Beverage facilities iv. Amenities and service levels required v. Branding alternatives 2. Using Moody’s Analytics’ forecasts of the economic variables that exhibit the strongest historical correlations with the demand in the Downtown Atlanta lodging market, we prepared a 10-year forecast of market performance assuming the proposed Hotel becomes operational January 1, 2017. 3. We prepared 10-year market projections8-19-2013 to reflect occupancy, Average Daily Rate (“ADR”), Revenue per Available Room (“RevPAR”), and Cash Flow Available for Debt Service for the Proposedat Hotel. Report Sections The results of our phased analyses are presented in the following sections: Section I – Executive Summary Section II Draft– Area and Neighborhood Overview Section III – Downtown Atlanta Hotel and Convention Market Analysis Section IV – National Convention Center Hotel Analysis Section V – Project Facilities Recommendation Section VI – Projected Performance of the Proposed Hotel Section VII – Projected Financial Performance Section VIII – Possible Incentive Structures Mr. Richard Sawyer Page 3 August 19, 2013 Assumptions and Limiting Conditions As in all studies of this type, the estimated results are based on competent and efficient management and presume no significant change in the status of the competitive lodging market from that as set forth in this report. The terms of our engagement are such that we have no obligation to revise our conclusions to reflect events or conditions that occur subsequent to the date of completion of our fieldwork. However, we are available to discuss the necessity for revisions in view of changes in the economy or market factors impacting the competitive lodging market. Since the proposed Hotel’s future performance is based on estimates and assumptions that are subject to uncertainty and variation, we do not present them as results that will actually be achieved. However, our analysis has been prepared on the basis of information obtained during the course of this assignment and our experience in the industry. We would be pleased to hear from you if we can be of further assistance in the interpretation and application of our findings and conclusions. We appreciate the opportunity to be of service to the GWCCA and thank you for selecting PKF Hospitality Research, LLC for professional services. Sincerely, PKF Hospitality Research, LLC 8-19-2013 at Draft Table of Contents Section I – Executive Summary ......................................................................................... 6 1- Area and Neighborhood Overview ........................................................................... 7 2- GWCC and Downtown Atlanta Lodging Market ...................................................... 7 3- Comparable Convention Hotel Openings Analysis ................................................. 8 4- Project Facility Recommendations........................................................................... 9 5- Projected Performance of the Subject Hotel ......................................................... 10 6- Projected Financial Performance of the Subject Hotel .......................................... 11 Section II – Area and Neighborhood Review .................................................................. 12 Atlanta Economic and Demographic Overview ............................................................... 13 Downtown Atlanta Office Market ................................................................................................................. 14 Future developments in Downtown Atlanta ................................................................................................ 15 Section III – Downtown Atlanta Convention and Hotel Overview ................................ 16 Historical Downtown Atlanta Hotel Supply and Demand ................................................ 17 Downtown Atlanta Convention Market Summary ............................................................ 18 Georgia World Congress Center .................................................................................................8-19-2013 ................ 18 TAP Report and Future Bookings ............................................................................................................... 21 Downtown Atlanta Hotels ................................................................................................. 22 Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunitiesat and Threats ....................................................... 25 Strengths: ..................................................................................................................................................... 25 Weaknesses: ................................................................................................................................................ 25 Opportunities: ............................................................................................................................................... 25 Threats: ......................................................................................................................................................... 25 Section IV – CompDraftarable Convention Hotel Openings Analysis ................................. 26 Introduction ....................................................................................................................... 27 Limitations ......................................................................................................................... 28 Summary of Findings and Conclusions ........................................................................... 29 Induced Demand .......................................................................................................................................... 29 Impact on Market Area Average Daily Rate ............................................................................................... 36 Measuring Performance Milestone Timelines ................................................................. 38 Table of Contents Page 5 Section V – Project Facility Recommendations ............................................................ 41 Introduction ....................................................................................................................... 42 Hotel Room Count ............................................................................................................ 42 Room Product and Mix ..................................................................................................... 43 Meeting Space Requirements .........................................................................................
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