This report analyses the performance of Greater China’s Hotel Market Greater China Hotel Report knightfrank.com/research May 2020 GREATER CHINA HOTEL REPORT 2020 OVERVIEW Against the backdrop of a slowing domestic economy, coupled with global economic uncertainties and the protracted China–US trade war, the hotel industry in the Greater China region demonstrated weak performance in 2019. Among all major cities, including Beijing, Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Hong Kong, the Average Daily Rate (ADR) of five-star hotels shrank, and the occupancy rate dropped in Shanghai, Shenzhen and Hong Kong. Macau still managed a slight increase in ADR, but the occupancy rate fell. The weak growth trajectory of the hotel industry was further dragged down by the COVID-19 outbreak and this is expected to continue in the first half of 2020. In Beijing, the number of tourist arrivals rooms to the market. By the end of 2019, declined, and demand for tourism the number of luxury guest rooms in accommodation weakened in 2019. The The Chinese government Shanghai totaled 38,825, up 8% YoY. weak global economy, keen competition has managed to control the and huge amount of new supply have spread of the virus In Guangzhou, strong economic exerted heavy pressure on the local in mainland China so far, fundamentals and good performance in hotel market. In 2019, nine new luxury we expect domestic tourism the tourism and transportation sectors hotels opened in Beijing, providing an to regain its momentum fostered the positive development of additional 2,315 rooms. Three five-star in Q3 2020 the hotel industry in 2019. According to hotels are expected to open in Beijing the Guangzhou Bureau of Statistics, the in 2020, including the Beijing Qianmen number of overnight tourists increased Oriental Mandarin Hotel, the Beijing 3.7% YoY in 2019, and total tourism Tongzhou Hilton Hotel, and the Beijing number of overnight visitors dropped revenue increased 11.1% YoY. In 2019, Daxing Hilton Hotel. With these new 1% YoY to 7.34 million. As a result of three five-star hotels were opened in hotels, the total number of luxury hotel the decline in overnight visitors, more Guangzhou – the Marriott International, rooms in Beijing will increase by 492, stringent cost controls in business travel the Rosewood Guangzhou Hotel and the reaching 42,903 rooms in 2020. and the huge amount of new supply, Jumeirah Guangzhou – adding 534 rooms the average occupancy rate dropped to the local hotel market. Looking ahead, In 2019, the annual growth rate of visitor 0.9 percentage points YoY to 68.4% and with the future completion of several arrivals to Shanghai slowed down. the ADR of five-star hotels in Shanghai large-scale tourism projects, we expect Shanghai received approximately 8.97 decreased 2.3% YoY to RMB959 in 2019. that Guangzhou’s attractiveness a tourism million international tourists, a slight Eight luxury hotels were opened in destination will be enhanced, driving increase of 0.4% YoY. However, the Shanghai in 2019, adding 2,811 guest stronger demand for its hotel market. Table 1. Economic indicators (2019) Beijing Shanghai Guangzhou Shenzhen Hong Kong Macau Taipei GDP growth (YoY) 6.1% 6.0% 6.8% 6.7% 1.2% -8.1% 2.7% GDP per capita RMB164,000 RMB157,297 RMB154,435 RMB206,682 HK$382,046 MOP645,438 NT$801,037 Retail sales value RMB1,227.0 RMB1,349.7 RMB997.8 RMB 658 HK$431.2 MOP77.2 NT$4,664 (billion) Retail sales value 4.4% 6.5% 7.8 % 6.7% -11.1% 0.5% 3.3% growth (YoY) Foreign direct -18.9% 10.1% 8.1% -1.6% 1.0% (2018) 9.8% (2018) -2.1% investment growth (YoY) Unemployemnt rate 4.0% 3.6% 2.2% 2.2% 3.0% 1.7% 3.7% Inflation 2.3% 2.5% 3.0% 3.4% 2.9% 2.8% 1.1% Source: Local statistics departments / Knight Frank Research 2 GREATER CHINA HOTEL REPORT 2020 In 2019, eight new five-star hotels Taiwan’s hotel industry has been hotel industry in embracing advanced opened in Shenzhen, adding 2,100 supported by a stable economy and technology such as artificial intelligence rooms in total. Owing to the large healthy tourism development. Thanks (AI) and robotics in their operations. amount of new supply, the overall to the government’s successful efforts hotel market in Shenzhen had a lower to reinvigorate its tourism industry occupancy rate in 2019 compared with through the “Tourism 2020” initiative, that in 2018. In 2019, the occupancy visitor arrivals to Taiwan in 2019 hit a rate dropped 4.2% YoY to 68.5%. The record 11.84 million, up 7.2% YoY and ADR of five-star hotels in Shenzhen was the sharpest annual jump since 2014. Chart 1. International overnight visitor arrivals, RMB741, flat YoY. The next three years In 2019, the occupancy rate of five-star 2019 will witness a remarkable growth in the hotels in Taipei increased slightly by Million people 1.7 percentage points to 74.7%, and the supply of luxury hotels in the Shenzhen 25 market. With abundant new supply, ADR increased slightly by 0.9% YoY to both the occupancy rate and ADR of the NT$4,612. However, total operating 20 income of international tourist hotels hotel market in Shenzhen are expected 15 to face downward pressure. in Taipei in 2019 dropped 2.1% YoY to NT$265.7 billion. 10 Impacted by the social unrest 5 since June, Hong Kong witnessed a Since the beginning of 2020, the COVID-19 outbreak has impacted the 0 significant drop in visitor arrivals. BJ SH GZ SZ HK MO TP According to the Hong Kong Tourism domestic tourism and hotel sectors Source: Knight Frank Research Board, Hong Kong received 23.8 million severely, as it brought the travel international overnight visitors in 2019, boom to a screeching halt. As the COVID-19 epidemic escalated into an down 18.8% YoY. Of these, 16.2 million unprecedented global pandemic in Q1 were from the Chinese Mainland, 2020, it grounded travel and tourism, Chart 2. Five-star hotel down 18.5% YoY. As a result, the hotel and impacted all segments of the hotel stock, 2019 industry was severely affected. The market, budget, midscale and luxury. occupancy rate of High Tariff A hotels Thousand rooms fell 7 percentage points YoY to 74% in 45 As the COVID-19 pandemic appears 2019, while the ADR dropped 8.0% 40 likely to last well into Q2 2020, we YoY to HK$1,982. During the year, 15 35 expect 2019’s weak growth trajectory 30 new hotels were opened, including the of China’s hotel industry to continue 25 Rosewood Hong Kong, K11 Artus, the in first half of 2020. Since the Chinese 20 Hotel St. Regis Hong Kong, and the 15 government has managed to control ALVA Hotel. 10 the spread of the virus in mainland 5 China so far, we expect domestic 0 Macau recorded 39.4 million visitor tourism to regain its momentum in BJ SH GZ SZ HK MO TP arrivals in 2019, up 10.1% YoY, Q3 2020. Together with the policies to Source: Knight Frank Research attributable in large part to improved boost economy being released by the connectivity with other Mainland government, the domestic travel and Chinese cities via the Hong Kong– hotel market will also see a turnaround. Zhuhai–Macau Bridge. Nonetheless, However, the recovery in international Chart 3. Five-star hotel despite the double-digit jump in visitor tourism will take longer. room rate in 2019 arrivals, its five-star hotel market was clouded with a range of macro- The COVID-19 pandemic has been ADR (US$) 300 economic and social factors that a wake-up call for many businesses impacted growth. The hotel industry as how digital transformation and 250 saw weaker performance in 2019 than an update to the status quote were 200 in 2018, with the cumulative five-star required. In the short run, hotel 150 hotel occupancy rate dropping 0.9% operators in the Greater China region YoY to 92.3% in 2019. The average should capitalise on the emerging trend 100 hotel room price for five-star hotels of staycations and other new trends in 50 was MOP1,644.0 in 2019, representing domestic travel by targeting the local 0 an increase of a mere 1% compared to market. In the long run, we expect to see BJ SH GZ SZ HK MO TP MOP1,627.9 recorded in 2018. the transformation and upgrading of the Source: Knight Frank Research 3 GREATER CHINA HOTEL REPORT 2020 BEIJING No. of 5-star hotel rooms New supply of 5-star hotel Average daily rate Hotel occupancy by 2019 (room) rooms in 2019 (room) (ADR) in 2019 rate in 2019 42,471 2,315 RMB805* 76.1%* (-7.1% YoY) (+6 ppt) *The latest official figures are up to the end of Q3 2019 OVERVIEW Affected by global economic tourists (-5.6% YoY) and 562,000 tourists industry remained stable. In 2019, uncertainty and the China–U.S. trade from Hong Kong, Macau and Taiwan 292 exhibitions were held in Beijing, war, the number of tourist arrivals (-7.3% YoY). International tourism accounting for 8.2% of the total in in Beijing declined, and demand for revenue dropped by 5.9% YoY to US$5.19 China, an increase of 5.4% YoY. Overall, tourism accommodation weakened in billion. the occupancy rate of five-star hotels in 2019. The number of inbound tourists Beijing increased by 6 percentage points decreased 5.9% YoY to 3.769 million, Accommodation demand from the YoY to 76.1% at the end of Q3 2019*.