Issue 107 • August-September 2014

CEPS European Neighbourhood Watch Editorial monthly newsletter focuses on the EU’s relations with its geographical neighbours: those in its midst, those Burning sand: included in the enlargement process, countries covered by the European War crimes and shifting borders Neighbourhood Policy and Russia. Each month the newsletter offers a in the Middle East round-up of the previous month’s major developments with links to the full This summer saw an explosion of violence in the Middle East: text of each corresponding news item, between Israel and Gaza, in northern Syria and in northern and analysis or official document. These central Iraq. The Middle East security order of yesteryear is links are presented in chronological history. The writing was already on the wall months ago, but it order. This overview is complemented is now plain for all to see: reality trumps cartography. ‘Sykes- by an editorial note that focuses on a Picot’, the infamous agreement of 1916 in which Britain and current development or a more long- secretly divided their zones of influence in the Middle term trend pertaining to the EU’s East, is dead.1 Not only have an estimated 2.5 million Syrians relations with its neighbours. fled across the porous borders to neighbouring countries,2 the frontiers with Jordan and Iraq are no longer a physical reality. New dividing lines are being drawn in the burning sand.

Table of Contents In terms of geopolitical change, the creation of the Islamic State (IS) and the emergence of a de facto independent Kurdistan are Editorial: “Burning sand: War crimes and the most important developments in the region in the summer shifting borders in the Middle East” of 2014. What is also striking is the level of barbarity of those local actors engaged in the struggle for a place in the future Eastern Partnership regional security order. The US and individual EU member states have been jockeying to position themselves too. The Russia European Union, above and beyond the member states, has been a bystander to developments in the Middle East. It would Southern Neighbourhood seem that the member states intend to use their organisation’s external action capabilities only for issuing political declarations, Enlargement providing humanitarian assistance and paying for post-conflict rehabilitation. Arguably, the direct and indirect challenges Index of European Neighbourhood posed by the multiple crises in the Middle East surpass any Watch Editorials member state’s individual capacity to play a determining role on the international scene. A more comprehensive common strategy should therefore be put in place to guide joint action and to make sure that the dust kicked up in the Middle East settles in places that best suit the EU’s collective interests.

Syria The war in Syria has pushed the country further downwards in a CEPS Neighbourhood Watch Editorial addres spiral of madness and exasperation. According to the UN High Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS) Commissioner for Human Rights, the death toll has climbed

Place du Congrès 1, beyond 190,000. The UN Commission of Inquiry on Syria on B-1000 Brussels, Belgium 27 August said that both the Syrian government and Islamic phone: +32 2 229 39 11 State insurgents are committing war crimes and crimes against fax: +32 2 219 41 51 humanity and should face trial at the International Criminal website: www.ceps.eu Court. Its report, the inquiry commission’s eighth since it was established three years ago, pays close attention to the terror e-mail: [email protected] Subscribe! campaign being waged by IS: Editorial team: Steven Blockmans and Hrant Kostanyan 2 European Neighbourhood Watch Editorial

“In areas of Syria under [IS] control, particularly in the north and (known as Peshmerga) repelled ISIS troops trying north-east of the country [Aleppo and Raqqa provinces], Fridays to seize parts of Kirkuk. Two weeks later, Massoud are regularly marked by executions, amputations and lashings in Barzani, the leader of the Kurdistan autonomous region public squares. (…) Bodies of those killed are placed on display for asked its parliament to organise an several days, terrorising the local population”.3 referendum. Israel’s Prime Minister Benyamin Netanyahu said that his government would support The report goes on to say that “[v]iolence has bled an independent Kurdistan. over the borders of the Syrian Arab republic, with extremism fuelling the conflict’s heightened brutality”. In early August 2014, IS launched a new offensive IS now occupies about a third of Syrian territory, which against Kurdish-held territory in northern Iraq provides it with a source of weapons and recruits to advancing to within 40 kilometres from Erbil. expand its activities in Iraq and elsewhere in the Within days, IS managed to capture the town of Levant. Sinjar, prompting thousands of its Yazidi population – a religious sub-set of the Kurds – to take refuge Issue 107 • August-September • Issue2014 107 Islamic State on Mount Sinjar, where they lacked basic necessities The Islamic State grew out of al-Qaeda’s offshoot such as food and water. The large number of Yazidis in Iraq, where it was founded in 2003 as a reaction executed in the attack and the threat of an even larger to the US-led invasion. In 2005, the Sunni-jihadist massacre of those trapped on Mount Sinjar prompted group declared war on Shia Muslims and used suicide the to wade into the conflict. The US bombings and (mass) executions to carry out attacks on asserted that the systematic destruction of the Yazidi Shia-dominated and mixed sectarian neighbourhoods. people by the Islamic State amounted to genocide. In 2006 it rebranded itself as the ‘Islamic State in Iraq’, the name under which it continued to carry out Acceptance of new realities its activities after the withdrawal of US forces from Since 8 August, US airstrikes on IS militants have led to the country. The terrorist group benefitted from the some of the territory being recaptured by Peshmerga. security vacuum in neighbouring Syria to expand its American and British planes airdropped humanitarian activities and adopted the name ‘Islamic State of Iraq aid for the civilians trapped in the mountains. The UK and Syria’ (ISIS). The advances that ISIS troops have also provided surveillance and refuelling to assist the made in large parts of northern Syria have substantially humanitarian mission. France also moved to provide strengthened their position. In 2013, ISIS carried out humanitarian aid to the Kurds. US airstrikes and attacks in Turkey and Lebanon and by the end of last Kurdish ground forces eventually broke the ISIS siege year it advanced on central and northern Iraq. On 3 of Mount Sinjar, allowing thousands of refugees to January 2014, ISIS militia shocked the world by taking escape. At this point, the United States started arming control of the Iraqi cities of Fallujah and Ramadi, less Kurdish forces directly. France followed suit and the than 100km west of the capital Baghdad. Iraqi Prime UK, Croatia, the Czech Republic, Denmark, Germany, Minister Nouri al-Maliki accused Saudi Arabia and Italy and the Netherlands have indicated that they too Qatar of bankrolling ISIS. In June, during a large-scale intend to supply arms to the Kurds. As rightly observed offensive by ISIS in the north, its troops, outnumbered by Julian Barnes-Dacey, 15 to 1 by Iraqi security forces, seized control of most of Mosul, the strategic and second-most populous city in “unlike in Syria, where the [US and the EU have] struggled for three Iraq, a large part of the surrounding oil-rich Nineveh years to find a reliable address to which they can deliver armed province, and the city of Tikrit. Amid the chaos, Iraqi assistance, the Kurdish regional government and peshmerga military helicopters carried out attacks on ISIS in Syria, represent a dependable and long-standing partner with whom whereas the Syrian Air Force bombed ISIS positions on [the West] feels confident it can engage militarily (…), without Iraqi territory. These uncoordinated actions against the detrimentally exacerbating the politics fuelling the wider Iraqi common enemy underscore the success of ISIS’ policy crisis by backing the perceived sectarian central government in in wiping out the Sykes-Picot divide between the two Baghdad. Fears that arming the Kurds will empower their long- countries. By late June, Iraq had lost complete control standing desire for independence, further fuelling the political of its borders with Jordan and Syria. In a new show disintegration of Iraq – as it probably eventually will with profound of confidence, ISIS changed its name to ‘Islamic State’ consequences – have been seconded to more immediate security (IS) and on 29 June announced the establishment of and humanitarian concerns”. 4 a new ‘Caliphate’, a government based on Islamic law which would include Iraq and Syria. IS called upon However, supporting the Kurds alone will not be Muslims all over the world to pledge allegiance to their enough to defeat the Islamic State in Iraq. For some Caliph, Ibrahim Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi. time now, the transatlantic partners have been hesitant to offer military support to the Shia-dominated central Kurdistan government in Baghdad, given its inability to establish When Iraqi government forces fled south as a result a cross-sectarian coalition government that could of ISIS’ northern offensive in June, the Kurds – the have prevented IS’ dramatic rise in the first place. majority of whom adhere to Sunni Islam – advanced The nomination, mid-August, of Haider al-Abadi as into the oil hub of Kirkuk, 100 km south of the Kurdish Iraq’s new Prime Minister has changed Washington’s regional capital Erbil, and thereby expanded their calculus. Al-Abadi is seen as a more consensual figure control of large parts of northern Iraq. Kurdish forces than his predecessor al-Maliki. The prospect of the

European Neighbourhood Watch 3 Issue 107 • August-September 2014 107 Issue August-September • formation of an inclusive government against the jihadist group has led the US to support the Iraqi army General from the air in regaining some ground from IS.

However, fighting IS in Iraq can only be successful if Western Balkans countries, Moldova sign up the militants’ bases in Syria are also targeted. The US to Horizon 2020 has already carried out its first air and ground assault Brussels, 01 July 2014 Link in Syria, in the form of an unsuccessful covert attempt to rescue journalist James Foley and other Americans European Council conclusions on external held captive in Syria by IS. Considering the Islamic relations State a direct threat to American security, the US is Brussels, 16 July 2014. Link now considering wider airstrikes on its troops in Syria. As President Obama develops a long-term strategy to defeat IS, and even accepts an alliance with arch-foe Remarks by the President of the European Iran to achieve that aim, the EU should not stand by Council Herman Van Rompuy following the idly. It should be a part of the international strategy to special meeting of the European Council fight IS and all the evil it represents. In this strategy, as Brussels, 17 July 2014. Link Barnes-Dacey has argued, the different stakeholders would need to agree on a roadmap premised on the shared interest to exclude Syrian President Bashar Statement by the Spokesperson following al-Assad as the driver of the kind of extremism now today’s extraordinary meeting of the Political troubling even Iran, and the Islamic State, the enfant and Security Committee terrible of those governments backing the rebels Brussels, 12 August 2014. Link against Assad.

New thinking Remarks by High Representative Catherine At last, the US and the EU have started thinking of a Ashton on arrival at the extraordinary Foreign new dynamic outside of the artificial states created in Affairs Council the wake of the First World War. Similarly to what has Brussels, 15 August 2014. Link happened in Lebanon in the past decades, the power of central government has waned in Syria and Iraq. Council Conclusions Ethno-religious groups have created new realities Brussels, 15 August 2014. Link in the heart of the Middle East. They have changed borders accordingly. But then again, these borders were never native to the region. The idea of upholding Remarks by High Representative Catherine Sykes-Picot and reinstating the unity of Syria and Ashton, following the extraordinary Foreign Iraq seems to be fading; and rightly so. Of course, the Affairs Council atrocities and large-scale human suffering as a result of Brussels, 15 August 2014. Link the all-out war in the Middle East should be stopped. The advance of the Islamic State represents a grave problem to all other stakeholders in the region. That Opening remarks by EU High Representative could be a unifying factor, which offers a prospect for Catherine Ashton at the Informal meeting progress in establishing a new regional security order of European Union Foreign Ministers in the Middle East. (Gymnich) Milan, 29 August 2014. Link 1. See S. Blockmans, “Vanishing lines in the sand: Why a new map of the Middle East is necessary”, CEPS Commentary, 1 October 2013. 2. The UN High Commissioner for Refugees estimates that a total of 9 Eastern Partnership million Syrians have fled their homes since the outbreak of civil war in March 2011. Some 6.5 million are internally displaced within Syria. Under Commissioner Štefan Füle speech: Eastern 100,000 have declared asylum in the EU, with a small number offered resettlement by countries like Germany and Sweden. Partnership reached important historic 3. 8th Report of Commission of Inquiry on Syria - A/HRC/27/60, 13 August milestone (published on 27 August 2014). Vilnius, 17 July 2014. Link 4. J. Barnes-Dacey, “Europe desperately seeking answers on Iraq”, ECFR, 14 August 2014. Armenia Steven Bockmans CEPS Senior Research Fellow and Head of the EU Foreign Statement by the Spokesperson on Nagorno- Policy unit Karabakh Brussels, 03 August 2014. Link 4 European Neighbourhood Watch

Azerbaijan Moldova

Statement by the Spokespersons on the European Union supports key reforms in the sentencing of Hasan Huseynli in Azerbaijan Republic of Moldova Brussels, 17 July 2014. Link Brussels, 29 July 2014 Link

Statement by the Spokespersons on the arrest Ukraine of Leyla Yunus in Azerbaijan Brussels, 02 August 2014. Link Statement by the Spokesperson on media freedom and the safety of journalists in

Issue 107 • August-September • Issue2014 107 Statement by the Spokesperson on arrest in Eastern Ukraine Azerbaijan Kyiv, 04 July 2014. Link Brussels, 06 August 2014 EU-Ukraine Human Rights Dialogue Brussels, 04 July 2014. Link EU Statement on the situation of human rights and civil society in Azerbaijan 14 August 2014 High level meeting to coordinate international support for Ukraine Brussels, 04 July 2014. Link Belarus Declaration by the High Representative on EU Special Representative for Human Rights behalf of the European Union on the alignment Lambrinidis meets Belarusian human rights of certain third countries with the Council defender Ales Bialiatski Brussels, 01 July 2014. Link Decision 2014/308/CFSP amending Decision 2014/145/CFSP concerning restrictive Georgia measures in respect of actions undermining or threatening the territorial integrity, Statement by the Spokesperson on the arrest sovereignty and independence of Ukraine in Georgia of suspended Mayor of Tbilisi, Brussels, 07 July 2014. Link Gigi Ugulava Brussels, 04 July 2014. Link Joint conclusions high level meeting on Ukraine: coordinating and implementing the New EU Special Representative for the South international support Caucasus and the crisis in Georgia appointed Brussels, 08 July 2014. Link Brussels, 08 July 2014. Link Commissioner Štefan Füle speech: Making support for Ukraine more effective Commissioner Füle to visit Georgia to Brussels, 08 July 2014. Link announce new support for trade, private sector development and justice reform Brussels, 17 July 2014 Link Joint conclusions of the EU-Russian Federation-Ukraine ministerial meeting on Statement by the Spokespersons on criminal the effects of implementation of the EU- charges being filed against former President Ukraine AA/DCFTA of Georgia Mikheil Saakashvili Brussels, 11 July 2014. Link Brussels, 31 July 2014. Link Commissioner Štefan Füle speech: Situation in Ukraine Statement by the Spokesperson on the Strasbourg, 15 July 2014. Link “presidential elections” in the breakaway region of Abkhazia in Georgia Brussels, 24 August 2014. Link Statement by the Spokesperson on kidnapped Ukrainian military pilot Brussels, 17 July 2014. Link

European Neighbourhood Watch 5 Issue 107 • August-September 2014 107 Issue August-September • Statement on the crash of Malaysian Airlines flight MH17 on Ukrainian territory President Barroso spoke with President Brussels, 17 July 2014. Link Poroshenko on the phone yesterday and today to discuss the latest events in Ukraine Brussels, 19 August 2014. Link EU establishes mission to advise on civilian security sector reform in Ukraine Brussels, 22 July 2014. Link Statement by the Spokesperson on the murder of Mykola Zelenec in Luhansk Remarks by EU High Representative Brussels, 22 August 2014. Link Catherine Ashton upon arrival at Foreign Affairs Council Opening remarks by Catherine Ashton at 22 July 2014. Link meeting with Belarus, Kazakhstan, Russian Federation and Ukraine Council conclusions on Ukraine Brussels, 26 August 2014. Link Brussels, 22 July 2014. Link Press remarks of the EU representatives at Joint Statement of EU-ASEAN on the Tragic Minsk meetings Downing of Malaysia Airlines Flight MH17 Brussels, 26 August 2014. Link Brussels, 23 July 2014. Link Russia Further sanctions over situation in Eastern Ukraine agreed The Head of the EU Delegation to Russia on Brussels, 24 July 2014. Link today’s accident in the Moscow metro 15 July 2014. Link

Ukraine: European Commission adopts Statement by the President of the European legislative proposals on restrictive measures Council and the President of the European Brussels, 25 July 2014. Link Commission in the name of the European Union on the agreed additional restrictive EU sanctions over situation in Eastern Ukraine measures against Russia strengthened Brussels, 29 July 2014. Link Brussels, 25 July 2014. Link Adoption of agreed restrictive measures in Fact Sheet - EU-Ukraine relations (Updated) view of Russia’s role in Eastern Ukraine Brussels, 30 July 2014. Link Brussels, 31 July 2014. Link

EUAM Ukraine Head of Mission Kálmán Statement by Commission spokesman on the Mizsei arrives in Kyiv announcement of measures by the Russian Brussels, 08 August 2014. Link Federation Brussels, 07 August 2014. Link President Barroso: phone calls with President Poroshenko and President Putin on the The European Commission announces situation in Ukraine exceptional support measures for EU Brussels, 11 August 2014. Link producers of perishable fruit & vegetables Brussels, 18 August 2014. Link EU increases humanitarian assistance for Ukrainian conflict-affected population Statement by the Spokesperson on the Brussels, 12 August 2014. Link sentencing of demonstrators involved in the Bolotnaya Square events Foreign Affairs Council Conclusions on Brussels, 20 August 2014. Link Ukraine Brussels, 15 August 2014. Link Commission Statement on today’s Expert Group meeting to discuss agricultural markets in the context of the Russian ban Brussels, 22 August 2014. Link Issue 96 • August-September 2013

6 European Neighbourhood Watch

Commission Statement on today’s Expert Group meeting to discuss agricultural markets Lebanon in the context of the Russian ban Brussels, 22 August 2014. Link The European Union supports forestry actions Southern Neighbourhood Beirut, 07 July 2014. Link The European Union funds Lebanon Water Awareness Campaign Beirut, 15 July 2014. Link L’UE annonce un nouveau financement

Issue 107 • August-September • Issue2014 107 important pour l’éducation Statement by the Spokesperson on the situation 03 July 2014. Link in Lebanon Brussels, 06 August 2014. Link Nouveaux jumelages dans le secteur de l’énergie, de la sécurité routière et des finances 23 July 2014. Link Statement by the Spokesperson on violent clashes in Tripoli Brussels, 14 July 2014. Link Joint Statement by Special Envoys for Libya Final Report by European Union Election Brussels, 26 July 2014. Link Observation Mission - Egypt Presidential Election Statement by the Spokesperson on the 22 July 2014. Link first meeting of the Libyan Council of Representatives Brussels, 04 August 2014. Link Israel

Statement by the Spokesperson on rocket fire Statement on the appointment of Bernardino from Gaza and on-going retaliation operations León as the new Special Representative of the of the Israeli Defence Forces UN Secretary-General for Libya Brussels, 14 August 2014 Brussels, 08 July 2014. Link Foreign Affairs Council Conclusions on Libya Declaration on behalf of the European Union Brussels, 15 August 2014. Link on the escalation in the Gaza Strip Brussels, 18 July 2014. Link Statement by the Spokesperson on the situation in Libya Statement on the need for an immediate Brussels, 25 August 2014. Link ceasefire in the Gaza Strip Brussels, 25 July 2014. Link

Jordan EU-Morocco Fisheries Partnership Agreement to enter into force SRTD II organises informative sessions on Brussels, 15 July 2014. Link funding possibilities for projects that support applied research and commercialisation in Palestine Jordan 03 July 2014. Link Statement on the killing of a Palestinian boy in Jerusalem Brussels, 02 July 2014. Link

European Neighbourhood Watch 7 Issue 107 • August-September 2014 107 Issue August-September •

EU police mission for the Palestinian Territories extended Enlargement Brussels, 09 July 2014. Link Albania Statement on the shelling of an UNRWA school and a market in Gaza EU-funded Customs Administration Brussels, 01 August 2014. Link Modernisation project completes successfully Tirana, 16 July 2014. Link Statement by President Barroso and President Van Rompuy in the name of the European Bosnia and Herzegovina Union on the situation in Gaza Brussels, 03 August 2014. Link Statement on commemoration of Srebrenica Brussels, 11 July 2014. Link Statement by the Spokesperson on the ceasefire in Gaza Brussels, 05 August 2014. Link Kosovo

Kosovo citizens believe that the integration in Foreign Affairs Council Conclusions on the the EU is convenient for the country Middle East (Gaza) 01 July 2014. Link Brussels, 15 August 2014. Link EU representative in Kosovo to assess the Statement on the ceasefire in Gaza condition of the Mitrovica bridge Brussels, 27 August 2014. Link 22 July 2014. Link

Syria Commission assesses progress by Kosovo in visa dialogue 24 July 2014. Link Declaration by the High Representative on behalf of the European Union on the Macedonia alignment of certain third countries with Council Decision 2014/309/CFSP amending EU supported renovation of the Customs Council Decision 2013/255/CFSP concerning Administration building at the border restrictive measures against Syria crossing Brussels, 07 July 2014. Link Bogorodica, 22 July 2014. Link

Statement by the Spokesperson on the Speech by Ambassador Orav at the press appointment of Mr Staffan de Mistura as UN conference announcing country’s accession to Special Representative for Syria the EU’s Creative Europe Programme Brussels, 11 July 2014. Link Skopje, 24 July 2014. Link

EU reinforces sanctions against Syrian Montenegro regime Brussels, 22 July 2014. Link Joint Press Statement following the meeting of the Special group on public administration reform between Montenegro and the European Commission 10 July 2014. Link Profil Genre de la Tunisie 2014 Brussels, 12 July 2014. Link Call for Expression of Interest for Small Grants within the joint European Union and Council of Europe Project “Promoting Human Rights and Minority Protection in South East Europe” 20 August 2014. Link 8 European Neighbourhood Watch

Serbia

Ashton calls Belgrade and Pristina to meet over Mitrovica north bridge 11 July 2014. Link

Nearly billion euros for Serbia’s flood recovery

16 July 2014. Link Issue 107 • August-September • Issue 107 EU grants EUR 80 million to Serbia 18 July 2014. Link

Turkey

Joint Statement by the Spokespersons on the peace process in Turkey Brussels, 01 July 2014. Link

Message of congratulations of President Van Rompuy and President Barroso on the election of Recep Tayyip Erdogan as President of the Republic of Turkey Brussels, 11 August 2014. Link Index of ���������������������������������������European Neighbourhood Watch Editorials Issue n. 106, July 2014 Issue n. 93, May 2013 Lessons from the Great War - Facilitated dialogue in the Balkans Failure of leadership vindicates the EEAS Issue n. 105, June 2014 Issue n. 92, April 2013 Tunisia and Egypt: What promise Enlargement Agenda - Special focus on remains of the ? Macedonia, Serbia and Kosovo Issue n. 104, May 2014 Issue n. 91, March 2013 10 years since the ‘Big bang’ Tunisia in turmoil: how should the EU enlargement: impact on EU foreign react policy Issue n. 90, February 2013 Issue n. 103, April 2014 Strengthening the strategic choice EU-Russia relations: offered to the EU’s southern Once bitten, twice shy Mediterranean neighbours Issue n. 102, March 2014 Issue n. 89, January 2013 Shaping the emerging consensus on The EU’s External Action towards the Syria Middle East: Resolution required Issue n. 101, February 2014 Issue n. 88, December 2012 Preparing for a post-Yanukovich Towards a Eurasian Economic Union: Ukraine Integration and cooperation Issue n. 100, January 2014 Issue n. 87, November 2012 The EU’s neighbourhood policies in A Nobel Peace Prize to revive the EU 2014: in need of a re-boot enlargement process Issue n. 99, December 2013 Issue n. 86, October 2012 A post-mortem of the Vilnius Summit: Free and fair? A challenge for the EU Not yet a ‘Thessaloniki moment’ for the as Georgia and Ukraine gear up for Eastern Partnership elections Issue n. 98, November 2013 Issue n. 85, September 2012 Egypt and the EU: What next? The EEAS and the Eastern Partnership: Let the blame game stop Issue n. 97, October 2013 Vanishing lines in the sand: Why a new Issue n. 84, August 2012 map of the Middle East is necessary Preparing for a post-Assad Syria: What role for the European Union? Issue n. 96, September 2013 The Vilnius Summit on course for Issue n. 83, June 2012 success: but the real work on the History does not move in straight lines Eastern Partnership is yet to come Issue n. 82, May 2012 Issue n. 95, July-August 2013 Implications of the Eurozone crisis Croatia and the EU: The Catch-Up Issue for EU foreign policy - costs and opportunities Issue n. 94, June 2013 Too cold to handle:EU accession talks Issue n. 81, April 2012 with Iceland Do the BRICS make a Bloc?

CEPS Neighbourhood Watch Editorial address Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS) Place du Congrès 1, phone: +32 2 229 39 11 B-1000 Brussels, Belgium fax: +32 2 219 41 51 website: www.ceps.eu e-mail: [email protected] Subscribe! Editorial team: Steven Blockmans and Hrant Kostanyan