2018 SISC Annual Conference Book of Abstracts

SISC Sixth Annual Conference Recent trends in climate sciences, adaptation and mitigation Book of Abstracts

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With the contribution of Media Partners More information on the Italian Society for the Climate Sciences - SISC is available at www.sisclima.it ISBN: 978-88-97666-13-4 © Società Italiana Scienze per il Clima, October 2018

Table of Contents

ABOUT SISC CONFERENCE ...... 7 About SISC ...... 9 ABSTRACTS ...... 11 KEYNOTES LECTURES ...... 13 IPCC Special Report on impacts of global warming of 1.5°C: An overview of the mail outcomes ...... 13 The response of the Earth's hydroclimate to global warming ...... 14 The IPCC Sixth Assessment cycle : two other special reports underway, and new approaches in the main Working Group reports ...... 14 CLIMATE CHANGE IN THE ITALIAN MOUNTAINS AND THE MEDITERRANEAN REGION ...... 16 21st century projections of summer precipitation and winter snowmelt over the Alpine region from high resolution RCM experiments ...... 16 A new database for reconstructing the spatial-temporal evolution of the glacial resource in the Italian Alps ... 18 Aerosol optical and physical properties characterization at Mt. Cimone during and out of mineral dust transport events ...... 20 Annual heterotrophic soil respiraton from two alpine grasslands using radiocarbon measurements ...... 22 Assessment of Marine heat waves occurrence in the Mediterranean Sea under contemporary and future climatic conditions ...... 24 Atmospheric composition observations by a network of background environmental-climatic observatories in Italy: the NextDATA contribution ...... 26 Automatic processing of essential climate variables (ECVs) recorded at different atmospheric observatories in the framework of the NextData project ...... 30 Changes in extreme temperature and precipitation and their effects on the hydrological cycle of the Alpine region ...... 32 Changes in snow cover characteristics alter soil C and N cycling in mountain areas ...... 34 Climate change impact assessment on mountain water resources: a System Dynamics approach supporting multi-risk management and adaptation planning ...... 35 Climate-C cycle interactions in alpine grasslands over the past 15 years: evidences from two eddy covariance sites located in western and eastern Alps ...... 37 Comparing tree-ring and pollen climate reconstructions in a central region of the Italian Alps ...... 39 Dendroclimatic temperature record derived from tree ring width of the oldest living wood in the Southern Rhaetian Alps (Ortles Cevedale Group, Italy) ...... 41 Determination of the climate long-term changes by SST spectral analysis, in the northwestern Atlantic and Mediterranean focusing on the satellite era (1982-2016) ...... 43 Effects of grazing pressure on biodiversity and ecosystem functioning in the alpine grassland of Brocon: a multidisciplinary approach ...... 46 Evaluation of the performance of Regional Climate Models simulation at different spatial and temporal scale over the Alpine Region ...... 48 Experimental Hydrological Database for Apennine Basins’ (DIBA, Database Idrologico Bacini Appenninici) ... 51

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First measurement results on greenhouse gases collected at the high-altitude Monte Curcio observatory in the southern Mediterranean region ...... 55 Hardware & software infrastructure and technology development at the CNR-IDPA's Col Margherita atmospheric observatory (Eastern Dolomites, Italian Alps - NextData project) ...... 57 Elevation dependent climate change in the greater Alpine region ...... 59 Italian Western Tauri glaciers (Eastern Alps) life expectancy in XXI century ...... 60 Long-term monitoring of animal biodiversity: state and expected changes in the NW Italian Alps ...... 62 Multitemporal glaciers inventory of the Italian Alps, a basic tool for reconstructing the ongoing climate change ...... 65 Past climate variability over the last millennia in the Mediterranean area: a contribution of NextData project ...... 68 Recent variability and trend in surface solar radiation over a wide elevation gradient area: the Piedmont region ...... 70 Remote sensing applications for analysing the temporal behaviour of periglacial and paraglacial processes ...... 72 Sensitivity of snow models to the accuracy of the meteorological forcing in mountain environment: the NextSNOW experiment ...... 75 Temperature anomalies and glacier retreat on the Italian Eastern Alps ...... 78 The Archive of datasets of the NextData project ...... 81 The atmospheric carbon dioxide series at the Alpine site of Plateau Rosa, Italy ...... 83 The foothill aquifer system of the Piedmont Alpine zone: geology, hydrogeology and groundwater chemistry ...... 86 The history of salinity anomalies in the Mediterranean Sea from 60 years reanalysis ...... 89 Tree-ring reconstructions of past climate at the regional scale: extending back in time summer temperature variability in the Italian Alps and the central Mediterranean ...... 90 Validation of UTOPIA snow parameterization over northwestern Alpine stations ...... 92 Variability of orographic enhancement of precipitation in the Alpine region ...... 94 Water resources in mountain aquifers: an example of characterization, data analysis and trend of groundwater quantity and quality for the Mt. Amiata aquifer system (Central Apennines, Italy) ...... 97 WDB-Paleo: a paleo-climatic proxies database of marine sediment cores from the Mediterranean Sea ...... 100 Yearly water balance of the Piedmont Alpine zone...... 102 WEATHER AND CLIMATE EXTREME EVENTS IN A CHANGING CLIMATE ...... 104 Climate change in the Mediterranean regions: impacts on touristic coastal areas...... 104 Computation of extreme heat waves in climate models using a large deviation algorithm ...... 106 Heatwaves and effects on health: future impacts according to climate change scenarios in Italy ...... 107 Heavy rainfall modulation by the oceanic thermal state ...... 110 Impacts of extreme events on Italian electric system in the future climate ...... 112 Infrastructure Sector Exposure under Extreme Weather Events due to Climate Change ...... 115 Projecting wind and waves regime in the Adriatic Sea in a severe climate change scenario ...... 119 Statistics of Medicanes in 30-years high resolution runs with the Weather Research and Forecasting regional model with different representations of convection ...... 121

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The impact of polar amplification on mid-latitude Rossby waves and Persistent circulation patterns: an idealized numerical study ...... 122 Tornadoes in Italy: Climatology and numerical simulations ...... 123 Updates of temperature monthly extremes as a signal of climatic drift in Italy ...... 125 PALEO AND POLAR CLIMATE ...... 127 An updated overview of Last Glacial Maximum in the Alps: comparisons and climate considerations ...... 127 Beyond the Ruddiman hypothesis ...... 129 Biomarker record from Lake Fucino(Abruzzo) during MIS-5 for paleoclimate reconstruction ...... 131 Dating and investigating climate variability at high resolution in the deep portion of the TALDICE ice core . 133 Factors leading to wet LGM and dry future climate in the Mediterranean region ...... 135 LINKING GLOBAL TO REGIONAL CLIMATE CHANGE ...... 154 Decadal climate variability across the major eastern boundary upwelling systems ...... 154 Different impacts of global warming between north and south Mediterranean areas ...... 156 Does Dynamical Downscaling Perform well in Simulation of Indian Summer Monsoon Rainfall: An Inter- Comparison RCM Vs Driving GCMs ...... 158 Remote sources of predictability for the Mediterranean climate ...... 159 The North Atlantic Oscillation and its effect on European precipitation in different climates ...... 160 The relation between the global Hadley Circulation and the climate in the Mediterranean Region ...... 161 The response of Himalayan glaciers to intrinsic climate variability: Little Ice Age (LIA) onwards ...... 162 CLIMATE SERVICES: ROLE, APPLICATION, VALUE, CHALLENGES AND OPPORTUNITIES FOR MARKET DEVELOPMENT ...... 163 Assessing the Value of Climate Services: A Case Study for the Agricultural Sector ...... 163 A systemized inventory of drivers, obstacles and mechanisms affecting the uptake of climate services ...... 166 Climate Smart Hydropower Tool ...... 168 CLIME service: the tailored tool for climate analysis ...... 170 Designing climate services for flood risk management: assisted learning algorithms for the validation of a synthetic probabilistic loss model ...... 172 Environmental policy and international trade: new evidence from structural gravity...... 173 Estimating uptake probability of climate services based on a benefit-cost ratio ...... 174 Mapping the landscape of Climate Services: A Network Approach ...... 176 MEDiterranean Services Chain based On climate PrEdictions ...... 178 The RUS service: fostering innovation, technology development and transfer ...... 180 Towards the development of climate adaptation services ...... 183 Water Resources for Irrigation, a climate service for agriculture ...... 187 INNOVATION, TECHNOLOGY, MITIGATION PATHWAYS AND POLICIES ...... 189 A new technology for carbon dioxide submarine storage in glass capsules: evaluation through a life cycle assessment ...... 189 An index for the evaluation of Sustainable Energy Action Plans implementation: methodology and case- study application to the Metropolitan City of Milan ...... 193 Climate Policies and Skill-Biased Employment Dynamics: evidence from EU countries ...... 196

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Energy transition pathways for the US coal sector under delayed climate policy actions ...... 198 Exploring pathways of solar PV learning in Integrated Assessment Models ...... 201 Fairness in NDCs: comparing mitigation efforts from an equity perspective ...... 204 The political economy of energy innovation ...... 207 To Reach the 1.5°C of Global Temperature Increment We Will Need Much More Than Increased Ambition 210 Towards 1.5°C-consistent next Paris NDCs: a comparison between Italian and Swiss transport decarbonization perspectives ...... 213 CHALLENGES FOR CLIMATE CHANGE ADAPTATION IN THE POST PARIS WORLD ...... 215 Adaption through information: the impact of ICTS on responsiveness and compliance of climate policies ... 215 Assessing the risk of climate and land use change on freshwater ecosystem services: An indicator approach supporting adaptation at the river basin scale ...... 218 Can an extreme storm event change anything? Reconciling divergent views on coastal adaptation pathways on the Coromandel Peninsula, Aotearoa/New Zealand ...... 219 Climate change impacts on fire regime: modelling results and adaptation strategies ...... 221 Energy needs for adaptation: what can we learn from Paris Agreement’s NDCs? ...... 223 Evaluation of coastal vulnerability under changing climate and land use scenarios: a national assessment supporting integrated coastal zone management and climate adaptation ...... 226 Institutions and policies for climate-smart irrigation ...... 228 Linking Food System Shocks with Conflict and Migration ...... 231 The role of water stress and the drivers of agricultural productivity in the Mekong River Basin ...... 232 The triple instationarity – a challenge for implementing adaptation ...... 235 GLOBAL CARBON, CLIMATE FEEDBACKS AND EMISSION TRENDS ...... 236

A process for CO2 negative emission through hydrogen from biomass, ocean liming and CO2 storage ...... 236 Are European countries under reporting emissions of the powerful greenhouse gas HFC-23? ...... 240 CMIP5 future projections in the main water fluxes participating in soil-atmosphere interaction ...... 243 Emissions from livestock and the role of diets in driving climate change ...... 246 Factors determining energy budget inter-hemispheric asymmetries and cross-equatorial transport anomalies during the 20th Century ...... 249

Monitoring the carbon budget of ecosystems within the ICOS RI network: CO2 fluxes over vineyards ...... 251 SLCFs: what are they? ...... 253 Soil organic carbon: European current stock and future projections using a spatial modelling approach ...... 254 The new CMCC Seasonal Prediction System ...... 257 AUTHORS...... 258

SISC Sixth Annual Conference - Book of Abstract 6

About SISC Conference

The SISC Conference series aim at connecting leading scientists, researchers, economists, practitioners, business leaders, and policy makers, whose activities are focused on different aspects of climate change, its impacts and related policies.

The Conference was an important interdisciplinary platform for the presentation of new advances and research results in the fields of science and management of climate change.

Scientific Committee

Carlo Barbante – Co-Chair (Ca’ Foscari University of Venice, Institute for the Dynamics of Environmental Processes, National Research Council – CNR-IDPA) Antonio Navarra – Co-Chair (Fondazione Euro-Mediterranean Center on Climate Change) Francesco Bosello (University of Milan and Fondazione Euro-Mediterranean Center on Climate Change) Stefano Caserini (Politecnico di Milano) Silvio Gualdi (Fondazione Euro-Mediterranean Center on Climate Change)

SISC Sixth Annual Conference - Book of Abstracts 7 Keynotes Lectures

Mita Lapi (Fondazione Lombardia per l’Ambiente – FLA) Antonello Pasini (Institute of Atmospheric Pollution Research, National Research Council) Donatella Spano (University of Sassari)

Local organizing committee

Carlo Barbante (Ca’ Foscari University of Venice, Institute for the Dynamics of Environmental Processes, National Research Council – CNR-IDPA) Elena Argiriadis (Ca’ Foscari University of Venice) Alice Callegaro (Institute for the Dynamics of Environmental Processes, National Research Council – CNR-IDPA) Federico Scoto (Ca’ Foscari University of Venice)

Scientific Secretariat

Elena Argiriadis (Ca’ Foscari University of Venice) Alice Callegaro (Institute for the Dynamics of Environmental Processes, National Research Council – CNR-IDPA)

SISC Secretariat

Monica Eberle (Fondazione Euro-Mediterranean Center on Climate Change) Martina Gambaro (Fondazione Euro-Mediterranean Center on Climate Change)

Communication and Media

Mauro Buonocore (Fondazione Euro-Mediterranean Center on Climate Change) Carlo Palma (Fondazione Euro-Mediterranean Center on Climate Change) Andrea Russo (Fondazione Euro-Mediterranean Center on Climate Change)

SISC Sixth Annual Conference - Book of Abstract 8 Keynotes Lectures

About SISC

The Italian Society for Climate Sciences (Società Italiana per le Scienze del Clima - SISC) is a non-profit and non- advocacy association, which aims at contributing to scientific progress and the innovation of climatic sciences in Italy by promoting the convergence of disciplines and multidisciplinary research. SISC aims to be a reference point for all scholars dealing with climate-related sciences and their applications.

SISC was created to serve as a meeting point for scientists from different disciplines, who use climate information for their research: from climatologists to physicists and chemists, geographers to agronomists, economists to political scientists, and all scholars that deal with climate-related sciences and their applications.

The Italian Society for Climate Sciences aims at contributing to scientific progress and innovation of climatic sciences in Italy by promoting the convergence of disciplines and multidisciplinary research.

The institutional purposes of the SISC are: a) to the world of research: • to foster the exchange of ideas, the creativity and the development of new interdisciplinary research; • to promote communication and cooperation between universities and research institutions in Italy, strengthening the presence of climatic sciences in both Italian universities as well as higher education systems; • to attract young talents to build a new interdisciplinary scientific community and increase overall productivity; • to stimulate and coordinate the Italian contributions to the International programs in the field of climate sciences; • to become the reference point and the meeting place for Italian scientists living abroad. b) to the society: • to increase the impact of the studies and of the debate on climate issues, giving scientific rigour to the analysis of climate policies for mitigation and adaptation; • to promote the dialogue among scientists, policy makers, businesses and citizens to support actions in the interests of the society and the environment; • to provide research results to institutions, businesses and citizens

SISC Sixth Annual Conference - Book of Abstract 9 Keynotes Lectures

The SISC association is non-profit and non-advocacy, acts according to ethical principles and promotes policies for equal opportunities.

The aims of the Association are pursued in particular through the organization of conferences and debates addressed to the scientific and policy communities, the implementation of web-communications, the promotion of training courses for young graduates, and collaboration with multidisciplinary doctoral courses on climate science.

SISC Sixth Annual Conference - Book of Abstract 10

Abstracts

Climate Change in the Italian Mountains and the Mediterranean Region

Keynotes Lectures

IPCC Special Report on impacts of global warming of 1.5°C: An overview of the mail outcomes

Marco Bindi and Lorenzo Brilli1,2*

1 Department of Agri-food Production and Environmental Sciences - University of Florence, Piazzale delle Cascine 18, 50144 Firenze. Italia, E-mail: [email protected]

2 CNR IBIMET - Via Caproni 8, 50144 Firenze, E-mail: [email protected], [email protected]

* LA and CLA of IPCC SR1.5 Chapter 3

One of the greatest concerns regarding global warming is the associated response of the Earth's hydrologic cycle. By affecting the Earth's energy and water budgets, greenhouse gas forcing, can profoundly modify the water cycle, and in particular the characteristics of precipitation. In this presentation I will review this issue via an analysis of a series of global and regional climate model projections for the 21st century. These projections consistently indicate that, in response to climate warming, precipitation events will become more intense and extreme, less frequent and more concentrated in space and time. In other words, global warming will substantially modify the characteristics of precipitation. I will also discuss how this response is tied to the different natures of the surface evaporation (driving mean precipitation) and precipitation processes. Finally, I will present some

SISC Sixth Annual Conference - Book of Abstracts 13 Climate Change in the Italian Mountains and the Mediterranean Region

illustrative examples of how this hydroclimatic response can affect precipitation indicators of relevance for impacts on natural ecosystems and human societies.

The response of the Earth's hydroclimate to global warming

Filippo Giorgi

Abdus Salam International Centre for Theoretical Physics, Trieste, Italy;

The IPCC Sixth Assessment cycle : two other special reports

underway, and new approaches in the main Working Group reports

Valerie Masson-Delmotte

Laboratory for Sciences of Climate and Environment, France

SISC Sixth Annual Conference - Book of Abstract 14 Climate Change in the Italian Mountains and the Mediterranean Region

This presentation will introduce the outlines and timeline for the review of the second order drafts of the IPCC Special Reports on (i) the ocean and the cryosphere in a changing climate and (ii) climate change and land, including land degradation, desertification, food security, greenhouse gas fluxes in terrestrial ecosystems and sustainable land management. I will also present the new outlines of the main Working Group reports for the Sixth Assessement cycle, explain the reasons for the new approaches, and the key milestones for contributing to these reports through timely publications to support the assessment and review phases.

SISC Sixth Annual Conference - Book of Abstract 15

Climate Change in the Italian Mountains and the Mediterranean Region

21 century projections of summer precipitation and winter

RAL snowmelt over the Alpine region from high resolution RCM O experiments

L. Mariotti1, F. Giorgi2, E. Coppola2, F. Raffaele2, A. Fantini2

1OGS Istituto Nazionale di Oceanografia e di Geofisica Sperimentale; 2ICTP The Abdus Salam International Centre for Theoretical Physics

A series of high resolution (ds ~ 12 km or 0.11o), and ~ 50 km or 0.5o) 21st century projections for the Alpine region are analyzed to investigate changes in summer precipitation and winter snow melt over the Alps. Ensembles of RCM experiments driven by different GCMs are analysed for the high end RCP8.5 greenhouse gas concentration scenario, including some carried out with the ICTP RegCM4 model. For summer precipitation it is found that, while the GCMs project a wide spread decrease throughout the Alpine region, the RCMs at 12 km grid size produce an increase over the highest peaks due to increased convective activity assoicated with high elevation warming and wetting. For winter snowmelt, the timing of the snowmelt cycle is considerably modified by the surface warming, with an anticipation of the snowmelt driven runoff cycle of 1-3 months. This result, is however shown to be quite sensitive to model resolution. Both these examples illustrate the importance of model resolution in assessing the response of the surface hydroclimatology to global warming over regions characterized by complex topography (such as the Alps). They also suggest how high resolution results can substantially modify conclusions

SISC Sixth Annual Conference - Book of Abstracts 16 Climate Change in the Italian Mountains and the Mediterranean Region

based only on coarse resolution GCM projections. This analysis was carried out in the framework of the Nextdata project.

SISC Sixth Annual Conference - Book of Abstract 17 Climate Change in the Italian Mountains and the Mediterranean Region

A new database for reconstructing the spatial-temporal RAL O evolution of the glacial resource in the Italian Alps

C. Baroni1,2,3, S. Gennaro1, M.C. Salvatore1,2,3, M. Zorzi3, A. Carton3,4, L. Carturan3,4, T. Zanoner3,5

1University of Pisa, Dipartimento di Scienze della Terra, 2CNR-IGG, Institute of Geosciences and Earth Resources; 3CGI - Comitato Glaciologico Italiano, Italian Glaciological Committee; 4University of Padua, Dipartimento di Geoscienze; 5CNR-IRPI, Research Institute for Geo-hydrological Protection Long-term glacier observation series are fundamental for reconstructing secular climatic trends and for investigating the physical processes driving the response of glaciers to ongoing climatic changes. Since its origins, the Italian Glaciological Committee (CGI) promoted systematic observations on the Italian glaciers, starting from the measurement of frontal variations. Annual surveys begun at the end of the 19th Century and continue without interruptions since 1911, with the only exception of the two World Wars. Glaciological surveys from the CGI represent therefore one of the longest series of observations of the glacial front variations in the world, complemented by a large amount of data and a precious photographic documentation. The photographic archive of the CGI holds tens of thousands of images related to Italian glaciers, imprinted on various media (negatives, black and white and colour print, slides, DVDs and precious but delicate glass plates). The results obtained in the framework of the glaciological campaigns are regularly published since 1927 in a dedicated section of the CGI Bulletin, today called Geografia Fisica e Dinamica Quaternaria [1]. At present, approximately 150 glaciers are monitored every year by a large number of surveyors, linked to CGI and other volunteers associations. In the framework on the Nextdata Project, we collected all the data related to frontal variation surveyed by the CGI during the last 100 years. All data have been validated and stored in a database, which enables to perform easy and automatic queries and analyses of the available glaciological data for the entire Italian Alps. Since the end of the maximum Holocene advance during the Little Ice Age, the Italian glaciers have experienced a generalized phase of retreat, which accelerated in the 50s of the 20th Century and was followed by a slight expansion culminated in the late '70s and early '80s. Since the '90s, almost all the Italian glaciers resumed their retreat. The mean annual snow line rose more than 100 m, on average. The mass balance is measured in about a dozen of glaciers in the Italian Alps, using the glaciological method. This method is a standardized procedure recommended by the World Glacier Monitoring Service (WGSM), whose global database is annually updated with the front variations and mass balance observations collected and submitted by the CGI [2-6]. The annual mass balance is measured since

SISC Sixth Annual Conference - Book of Abstract 18 Climate Change in the Italian Mountains and the Mediterranean Region

1967 on selected Italian glaciers. The longest series is that of the Careser Glacier, which lost 48 m w.e. on average from 1967 to 2012 [7]. This long mass balance series show an increase of mass loss rates, mainly induced by longer and warmer ablation seasons. In the decade from 2004 to 2013 the mean annual mass balance of monitored Italian glaciers varied from - 1788 to -763 mm w.e. yr-1 [8]. The combination of October–May precipitations and June–September temperatures are responsible for the negative glaciers mass balance, but an important role is played by rapid geometric adjustments and albedo feedbacks, driving the accelerated response of glacial bodies.

References

1. Geografia Fisica e Dinamica Quaternaria http://gfdq.glaciologia.it/issues/ 2. CGI – Comitato Glaciologico Italiano (1928-1977) – Relazioni delle campagne glaciologiche – Reports of the glaciological surveys. Bollettino del Comitato Glaciologico Italiano, Series I and II, 1–25. (http://www.glaciologia.it/en/i- ghiacciai-italiani/le-campagne-glaciologiche/) 3. CGI – Comitato Glaciologico Italiano (1978–2016) – Relazioni delle campagne glaciologiche – Reports of the glaciological surveys. Geografia Fisica e Dinamica Quaternaria, 1–40. (http://www.glaciologia.it/en/i-ghiacciai-italiani/le- campagne-glaciologiche/) 4. WGMS (2017). Fluctuations of Glaciers Database. World Glacier Monitoring Service, Zurich, Switzerland. Online access: http://dx.doi.org/10.5904/wgms-fog-2017-10 DOI:10.5904/wgms-fog-2017-10. 5. WGMS (2017). Global Glacier Change Bulletin No. 2 (2014-2015). Zemp, M., Nussbaumer, S.U., Gärtner-Roer, I., Huber, J., Machguth, H., Paul, F., and Hoelzle, M. (eds.), ICSU(WDS)/IUGG(IACS)/ UNEP/UNESCO/WMO, World Glacier Monitoring Service, Zurich, Switzerland, 244 pp. doi: 10.5904/wgms-fog-2017-10. 6. WGMS (2015). Global Glacier Change Bulletin No. 1 (2012-2013). Zemp, M., Gärtner-Roer, I., Nussbaumer, S. U., Huesler, F., Machguth, H., Molg, N., Paul, F., and Hoelzle, M. (eds.), ICSU(WDS)/IUGG(IACS)/UNEP/UNESCO/WMO, World Glacier Monitoring Service, Zurich, Switzerland, 230 pp. doi:10.5904/wgms-fog-2015-11. 7. Carturan L., Baroni C., Becker M., Bellin A., Cainelli O., Carton A., Casarotto C., Dalla Fontana G., Godio A., Martinelli T., Salvatore M.C. & Seppi R. (2013a) – Decay of a long-term monitored glacier: the Careser Glacier (Ortles-Cevedale, European Alps). The Cryosphere, 7, 1819-1838. doi:10.5194/tc-7-1819-2013, 2013 8. Carturan L., Baroni C., Brunetti M., Carton A., Dalla Fontana G., Salvatore M.C., Zanoner T., Zuecco G. (2016). Analysis of the mass balance time series of glaciers in the Italian Alps. The Cryosphere, 10 (2), 695-712. doi:10.5194/tc-10- 695-2016

SISC Sixth Annual Conference - Book of Abstract 19 Climate Change in the Italian Mountains and the Mediterranean Region

Aerosol optical and physical properties characterization at Mt. OSTER

P Cimone during and out of mineral dust transport events

D. Putero1, A. Marinoni1, P. Bonasoni1, F. Calzolari1, P. Cristofanelli1

1CNR-ISAC, National Research Council, Institute of Atmospheric Sciences and Climate, Bologna, Italy

The Mediterranean basin is strongly affected by mineral dust transport events (DTEs), which have severe implications on climate, air quality, visibility, and public health. Mt. Cimone, the highest peak of the Italian northern Apennines (2165 m a.s.l.), is one of the first European mountain ridges on the trajectories of air masses from northern Africa, often rich in mineral dust. In this work, we investigated the optical and physical aerosol properties variability at Mt. Cimone, during and out of DTEs. A methodology to identify DTEs at this measurement site was developed, and it is currently used [1]. It couples the measured in situ coarse aerosol particle number concentration with 3-D back-trajectories computed by FLEXTRA. The application of this methodology allowed us to estimate a climatology of DTEs at the measurement site over 2002–2016, leading to a total of 228 DTEs (9% of the dataset). In this work, the Duchi et al. approach was compared to the method shown in [2], based on the simultaneous measurements of scattering and absorption coefficients at several wavelengths, and on the calculation of the single scattering albedo (SSA) and its Ångström exponent (αSSA). The comparison led to a statistically significant agreement between the two methodologies. Furthermore, by considering the Duchi et al. methodology for detecting DTEs, we investigated the variability of several parameters. The Ångström exponents of the absorption and scattering coefficients (AAE and SAE, respectively) showed statistically significant increases (for AAE) and decreases (for SAE) during DTEs, with respect to the rest of the period. Also, black carbon (BC) showed significant variations during DTEs, with an average increase of 43%. This behavior can be explained by the fact that the air masses reaching Mt. Cimone are not composed by “pure” dust, but rather by a mixture of air masses, often rich in anthropogenic pollutants. This is also visible from the median AAE and SAE values, which identify Mt. Cimone as a measurement site characterized by small particles and low absorption (see [3]). Indeed, 22% of the DTEs occurred in conjunction with so-called “acute pollution events” at Mt. Cimone, determined by significant increases in the BC daily averages with respect to seasonal values. The characterization of the BC increases during DTEs was also supported by the identification of the prevalent direction for air masses reaching the station, showing that 80% of the events originated or traveled over the central and eastern parts of northern Africa (regions richer of anthropogenic activities with respect to the western part). We also

SISC Sixth Annual Conference - Book of Abstract 20 Climate Change in the Italian Mountains and the Mediterranean Region

created, for the first time, a 8-y time series of SSA (λ=520 nm) at Mt. Cimone; also this parameter has undergone increases during DTEs.

References

1. Duchi et al., (2016). Elementa, 4, 000085. 2. Collaud Coen et al., (2004). Atmos. Chem. Phys., 4, 2465–2480. 3. Schmeisser et al., (2017). Atmos. Chem. Phys., 17, 12097–12120.

SISC Sixth Annual Conference - Book of Abstract 21 Climate Change in the Italian Mountains and the Mediterranean Region

Annual heterotrophic soil respiraton from two alpine OSTER

P grasslands using radiocarbon measurements

T. Chiti1,2, O. Gavrichkova3, G. Pellis2, U. Morra di Cella4, G. Filippa4, M. Mattioni3, C. Calfapietra3

1Department for Innovation in Biological, Agro-food and Forest systems (DIBAF), University of Tuscia, via San C. De Lellis snc, 01100 Viterbo, Italy; 2CMCC Foundation, Unit IAFES, Viale Trieste 127, 01100 Viterbo, Italy; 3Istituto di Biologia Agroambientale e Forestale (IBAF), National Council of Research (CNR), Via G. Marconi 2, 05010 Porano, Terni, Italy; 4Environmental Protection Agency of Aosta Valley, Climate Change Unit, Italy

Mountain ecosystems represent important places to preserve for both, biodiversity richness and for climate change mitigation purposes. In this context, the amount of soil organic carbon (SOC) released into the atmosphere as carbon dioxide (CO2), which is referred to as heterotrophic respiration (Rh), is technically difficult to measure despite its necessity to the understanding of how to protect and increase soil carbon stocks. Within the framework of the NextData project, we aimed to determine Rh in two mountain grasslands, Brocon and Torgnon, located in the western and eastern part of the Italian Alps. For this purpose we used radiocarbon measurements of the bulk SOC from different soil layers, using the approach proposed by Chiti et al. (2016). The accuracy of the determined Rh values was evaluated by determining the net primary production (NPP), as the sum of the Rh and the net ecosystem production (NEE) measured at each site by an eddy covariance tower, then comparing it with the NPP obtained through independent biometric measurements. No significant differences were observed while comparing two approaches, which suggested the suitability of radiocarbon methodology to determine Rh and evaluate the sink/source capacity of the investigated grassland ecosystems. Based on the evaluation of the C inputs to soil from aboveground and belowground litter and the C output from Rh, both grassland soils behave as C sinks. In conclusion, radiocarbon analysis of bulk SOC provided a reliable estimate of the average annual amount of SOC released to the atmosphere. Despite this methodology was initially applied only to forest ecosystems, its application also in grasslands ecosystems appear to be very convenient for calculating Rh because it utilizes only a single soil sampling and no time-consuming monitoring activities.

References

SISC Sixth Annual Conference - Book of Abstract 22 Climate Change in the Italian Mountains and the Mediterranean Region

1. Chiti T, Certini G, Forte C, Papale D, Valentini R (2016) Radiocarbon-Based Assessment of Heterotrophic Soil Respiration in Two Mediterranean Forests. Ecosystems, 19:62-72

SISC Sixth Annual Conference - Book of Abstract 23 Climate Change in the Italian Mountains and the Mediterranean Region

Assessment of Marine heat waves occurrence in the

OSTER Mediterranean Sea under contemporary and future climatic P conditions

T. Lovato1, G. Galli2, C. Solidoro2, E. Clementi1

1Fondazione CMCC (Centro Euro-Mediterraneo sui Cambiamenti Climatici), ODA Division, Bologna, Italy; 2National Institute of Oceanography and Experimental Geophysics (OGS), Sgonico, Italy

Climate change is expected to alter not only the average values of environmental properties, but also the extreme ones, as well as the frequency and duration of present climate conditions already considered as extreme.

Beside the distinct identification of long-term warming signal, there is a growing consensus on the increase of both frequency and intensity of extreme temperature events with higher concentrations of greenhouse gases, thus leading to important implications for human health, ecological goods and services. The latter is particularly relevant for oceanic shelf areas and enclosed seas, like the Mediterranean Sea, as the exposure of marine organisms to conditions remarkably different from those they are acclimated to, and even beyond their tolerance limits, will induce significant shifts in species ranges and economic impacts on seafood industries.

The intensification of hot extremes, hereafter referred as Marine heat waves (MHWs), over the Mediterranean marine regions has been addressed by several studies, ranging from limited regions and/or depths up to a more comprehensive basin-scale analysis of ecosystem impacts.

In this framework, the present study focuses on the long-term occurrence of MHWs in the Mediterranean Sea under different climatic scenarios to evaluate potentially harmful changes in their frequency and spatial coverage by the end of 21st century.

Daily seawater temperature fields for the Mediterranean Sea under two climatic scenarios, namely RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, were produced by means of a regional implementation of the NEMO ocean model (www.nemo-ocean.eu) forced with data produced by the CMIP5 CMCC-Climate Model.

SISC Sixth Annual Conference - Book of Abstract 24 Climate Change in the Italian Mountains and the Mediterranean Region

Data analysis focused i) on the detection of MHWs by tracing the anomalies with respect to climatological values and ii) the identification of changes in key temperature thresholds to describe relevant species- specific impacts.

As a first step, a comparison of climate driven simulations within contemporary conditions and CMEMS MFS reanalysis (1990-2015) was carried out to verify the consistency of simulated seawater temperature evolution and MHWs occurrence. Outcomes from the future scenario experiments over the period 2080-2100 were then analysed to characterize the spatiotemporal evolution of temperature extremes and MHWs for both basin and sub-regional systems.

Estimates provided by the comparison between current and future climate conditions, based on both geophysical and biological-related metrics, are fundamental to evaluate the extent and occurrence of MHWs and to build up knowledge based tools to respond at future changes in the Mediterranean Sea marine conditions.

SISC Sixth Annual Conference - Book of Abstract 25 Climate Change in the Italian Mountains and the Mediterranean Region

Atmospheric composition observations by a network of

RAL background environmental-climatic observatories in Italy: the O NextDATA contribution

P. Cristofanelli1, L. Naitza1, T.C. Landi1, F. Roccato1, D. Putero1, F. Calzolari1, A. Marinoni1, P. Bonasoni1, C. Barbante2, J. Gabrieli2, M. Vardè2, F. Dallo2, M. Bencardino3, F. D’Amore3, F. Sprovieri3, N. Pirrone3, P. Di Carlo4, F. Apadula5, D. Heltai5, A. Lanza5, A. Disarra6, D. Sferlazzo6

1CNR-ISAC, Via Gobetti 101, I-40129, Bologna, Italy; 2CNR-IDPA, Via Torino 15, I - 30172 Venezia Mestre (VE); 3CNR-IIA, Polifunzionale, I- 87036 Rende (CS); 4DISPUTER, University of Chieti «G. D’Annunzio», Chieti, Italy; 5RSE SpA, Via Rubattino, Milano, Italy; 6ENEA, Rome, Italy

Mountains are sentinels of climate and environmental changes and provide information on past and current climate variations. Continuous observations of atmospheric composition and other essential climate variables (ECVs) by in-situ background observatories still represents a paramount tool to detect and assess long-term trends, investigate processes and provide science services (e.g. near-real time data delivery, early warning activity). Moreover, these observations can provide a scientific basis able to support, by data sharing, studies on ecosystems and about the ability of atmospheric/climate models in representing processes over mountain regions. For these reasons, the NextData project was aimed at favoring the integration of an observational network in Italy based on already-existing climate observatories located in mountain, background and rural regions for the monitoring of atmosphere chemistry and specific ECVs (meteorological variables and solar radiation). Five high-mountain atmospheric observatories are the backbone of the network: Monte Cimone (Northern Apennines, the only WMO/GAW global station in Italy; 2165 m), Plateau Rosa (Western Alps, WMO/GAW regional station; 3480 m), Col Margherita (Eastern Alps; 2550 m), Monte Portella (Central Apennines; 2912 m), and Monte Curcio (Southern Apennines, WMO/GAW regional station; 1796 m). In addition to these observatories, the WMO/GAW regional stations Capo Granitola (south-western Sicily) and Lampedusa, although not high-altitude sites, have been included in the network to provide complementary information on the background conditions of the Mediterranean Basin marine boundary layer. The project activity, aimed at monitoring the background atmospheric conditions, is based on the upgrade and support to already existing atmospheric observatories, managed by different research organizations (RSE SpA, ENEA, Chieti University) and CNR institutes (ISAC, IDPA, IIA). Several of these observatories are already

SISC Sixth Annual Conference - Book of Abstract 26 Climate Change in the Italian Mountains and the Mediterranean Region

part of international projects/research programs for the monitoring of Essential Climate Variables (ECVs). More specifically, in the framework of the WMO/GAW activity, observations of greenhouse and reactive gases are carried out at Plateau Rosa, Mt. Cimone, Mt. Curcio, Capo Granitola and Lampedusa. Moreover, Plateau Rosa, Mt. Cimone and Lampedusa are also included among the potential sites included to the European Research Infrastructure ICOS (Integrated Carbon Observation System), a pan-European research infrastructure which provides harmonized and high precision scientific data on carbon cycle and greenhouse gas budget and perturbations. Measurements of physical properties of atmospheric aerosols are performed at Mt. Cimone, Mt. Curcio, and Capo Granitola, with Mt. Cimone as being also part of ACTRIS (Aerosols, Clouds and Trace gases Research Infrastructure) project. Col Margherita and Mt. Curcio were part of GMOS (Global Mercury Observation System) and nowof iGosp (Integrated Global Observing Systems for Persistent Pollutants) ERA-PLANET project. These measurements constitute the basis for a more effective integration between the observations carried out at these 7 measurement sites. The integration activities pass through the adoption of a common framework for execution of ECV observations (adoption of standardized detection methodologies and operation procedures, common calibration scales) and automatic elaboration of data. Besides optimizing the processes of data creation and publication, this also favored a more effective participation of the national scientific community to reference international programs and projects (e.g. WMO/GAW, ACTRIS, ICOS, AGAGE). In this work, we will present some selected results (highlights) achieved by the NextData project for these activities. The presented results were mainly achieved within the WP1.1. Firstly, we present an advanced concept for centralized and automatic data processing able to support station managers and measurement operators towards a more efficient adoption of QA/QC procedures. Besides boosting the data creation process and favoring a timely data submission, the adoption of standardized validation procedures will also assure a more objective flagging of data, as well as the possibility to trace back the actions related to the data validation (i.e., data revisions will be easier). Data file from stations are transferred daily to the NextData server, where a prototypal system is running. These files are automatically processed for harmonization of format, data flagging and data aggregation (averaging), according with guidelines provided by GAW/WMO. To provide open and free access to the historical time series of ECVs recorded at the measurement sites, the prototype system MOVIDA-Multistat (http://shiny.bo.isac.cnr.it:3838/plot- multistats-en/) was implemented as improvement of the system MOVIDA (MonteCimone On-line VIsualization and Data Analyses) within NextData. External users can access and download time series (with hourly time resolution) of meteorological parameters, trace gases (pollutant and climate-altering, like GHG) and aerosol properties recorded at the NextData stations. Moreover, MOVIDA represents a web resource by which external users can run some basic statistical analyses on time series for each

SISC Sixth Annual Conference - Book of Abstract 27 Climate Change in the Italian Mountains and the Mediterranean Region

presented parameter and over flexible period of interests. Thanks to the packages Shiny (shiny.rstudio.com) and Openair (Carslaw and Ropkins, 2012), it is possible to plot raw data, averages (on different time scales: daily, monthly and yearly) as well as to perform smoothing of time series to obtain information about long-term tendencies. Specific services for the near-real time delivery and repository of data collected by some of the background atmospheric stations have been activated in the framework of NextData to contribute to international programs (e.g. GAW-NRT, COPERNICUS-CAMS, WMO SDS-WAS). We launched scientific early warning and diagnostic tools. Specifically, we will present an automatic system for the NRT detection of Saharan dust transport events based on near-surface observations of aerosol properties [1] and we used systematically STEFLUX [2], to provide an historical (but continuously updated) time series of stratospheric intrusion events at the NextData stations. By comparison with data observed by the background stations, the STEFLUX outputs were also used for a preliminary assessment of the impact of stratospheric intrusion events to the near-surface O3 variability over the Italian peninsula. To summarize, NextData represented a systematic effort to integrate at national scales the activity carried out by single atmospheric-environmental observatories. The project was effective in:

• Supporting the execution of continuous near-surface and ground-based observations of atmospheric aerosol particles, reactive gases, greenhouse gases, short-lived climate forcers and ancillary parameters (meteorology and solar radiation).

• Support the harmonization of protocols for measurements, analyses, QA/QC procedures, including the adoption of common calibration scales (e.g. GAW-WMO, ICOS-RI, ACTRIS-RI). • To facilitate the activation of services for the near-real time data delivery (towards, e.g., COPERNICUS, ICOS, GAW- WMO), early warning (e.g. WMO SDS-WAS), automated QA/QC and open-access data publication.

• To provide open-access to a large data-set of essential atmospheric variables with assessed quality (also thanks to the interaction with WP2.1). The scientific significance of these efforts will increase tremendously if a long-term commitment will be available (see e.g. [3]). Thus, it is desirable that new national initiatives and decision-makers can recognize the need for a continuous and long-term support of the atmospheric observatories and can adopt the services boosted by NextData.

References

1. Putero et al., Aerosol optical and physical properties characterization at Mt. Cimone during and out of mineral dust transport events, submitted to SISC 2018.

SISC Sixth Annual Conference - Book of Abstract 28 Climate Change in the Italian Mountains and the Mediterranean Region

2. Putero, D., Cristofanelli, P., Sprenger, M., Škerlak, B., Tositti, L., and Bonasoni, P.: STEFLUX, a tool for investigating stratospheric intrusions: application to two WMO/GAW global stations, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 16, 14203-14217, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-16-14203-2016, 2016. 3. WMO Global Atmosphere Watch (GAW) Implementation Plan: 2016 - 2023. GAW Report n. 228, ISBN: 978-92- 63-11156-2, 2017.

SISC Sixth Annual Conference - Book of Abstract 29 Climate Change in the Italian Mountains and the Mediterranean Region

Automatic processing of essential climate variables (ECVs)

OSTER recorded at different atmospheric observatories in the P framework of the NextData project

D. Putero1, L. Naitza1, A. Marinoni1, P. Bonasoni1, F. Calzolari1, F. Roccato1, M. Busetto1, P. Cristofanelli1

1CNR-ISAC, National Research Council, Institute of Atmospheric Sciences and Climate, Bologna, Italy

The aim of the Project of Interest NextData (2012–2018, http://www.nextdataproject.it/?q=en) is to favor the integration of an observational network in Italy, based on climate observatories located in mountain, background and rural regions, for the monitoring of essential climate variables (ECVs). In this framework, we developed and implemented a system for centralized automatic processing of ECVs data coming from the different measurement sites; it will be able to support station personnel towards a more efficient adoption of QA/QC procedures. The system, which could be adopted also outside of the NextData project, is composed of several levels. First, raw data (typically collected at 1-min time resolution) from all instruments from different measurements stations (often recorded with acquisition procedures that are not standardized between each other) are transferred to the NextData server, where they are automatically screened for the harmonization of format and flagging, according to data-centers guidelines (e.g., WDCGG, WDCRG, WDCA). At this stage, level-0 data are generated. Then, all necessary checks for data validity and specific corrections (e.g., automatic calibration, conversion to standard conditions of temperature and pressure) are applied to the ECVs datasets. Within this phase, also a preliminary automatic data validation process (by following an approach similar to that presented in [1]) is performed, leading to the creation of level-1 data. Basing on these data screening procedures and corrections, valid data at native time resolution are then aggregated to hourly averages and properly flagged, to obtain level-2 data. A set of functions for the generation and managing of different numflags were also developed as part of this system. Furthermore, to support the station personnel in the daily QA/QC checks, as well as data reporting and interpretation, a suite of graphic products, based on R codes, is automatically generated. For each ECV, on a daily basis, plots reporting the time series of instrumental diagnostic parameters and a suite of elaborations showing time series or time averages over different reference periods (i.e., month, season, and year) are produced.

SISC Sixth Annual Conference - Book of Abstract 30 Climate Change in the Italian Mountains and the Mediterranean Region

References

1. Huang et al., (2016). J. Open Res. Softw., 4, e20.

SISC Sixth Annual Conference - Book of Abstract 31 Climate Change in the Italian Mountains and the Mediterranean Region

Changes in extreme temperature and precipitation and their RAL O effects on the hydrological cycle of the Alpine region

S. Gualdi1, E. Scoccimarro1, M. Zampieri2, L. Cavicchia3

1Centro Euro-Mediterraneo sui Cambiamenti Climatici; 2Joint Research Center in Ispra; 3University of Melbourne

This work presents results from analyses of the climate change signal over the Mediterranean area, the Italian Peninsula and the Alpine region, conducted in the framework of the NextData project. In particular, the analyses are based on data collected or produced within the project, and they have been carried out devoting a special emphasis on changes in the characteristics of extreme events in temperature and precipitation, and their effects on the hydrological cycle. Both observations and numerical simulations have been considered, in order to provide an assessment of the changes occurred in the current (or recent past) climate and in climate change projections obtained for future emission scenarios.

Specifically, we illustrate and discuss the observed shift towards earlier spring discharge in the main Alpine rivers, as shown by the analysis of the long-term discharge time-series of the Rhine, the Danube, the Rhone and the Po rivers. These rivers are characterised by different seasonal cycles reflecting the diverse climates and morphologies of the Alpine basins. However, despite the intensive and varied water management adopted in the four basins, all the discharge time-series display a common tendency towards earlier spring peaks of more than two weeks per century. According to our results, the change of seasonality of total precipitation appears to play a major role in the earlier spring runoff over most of the Alps.

Furthermore, we present a global assessment of heat wave magnitudes over the past century (from 1901 to 2010) and their implications for the river discharge of the Alps. The study provides a global estimate of heat wave magnitudes based on the three most appropriate datasets currently available, derived from models and observations (i.e. the 20th Century Reanalyses from NOAA and ECMWF), spanning the last century and before. The magnitude of the heat waves is calculated by means of the Heat Wave Magnitude Index daily, taking into account both duration and amplitude.

We compare the magnitude of the most severe heat waves occurred across different regions of the world and we discuss the decadal variability of the larger events since the 1850s. Our results show that the

SISC Sixth Annual Conference - Book of Abstract 32 Climate Change in the Italian Mountains and the Mediterranean Region

percentage of global area covered by heat wave exceeding a given magnitude has increased almost three times, in the last decades, with respect to that measured in the early 20th century. Finally, we discuss the specific implications of the heat waves on the river runoff generated in the Alps, for which comparatively long datasets exist, affecting the water quality and availability in a significant portion of the European region in summer.

Finally, we present an assessment of Mediterranean extreme precipitation as represented in different observational, reanalysis and modelling datasets, exploiting the added value of the ensemble of high- resolution model simulations provided by the Med-CORDEX coordinated initiative. Extreme precipitation diagnostics over the Mediterranean domain and physically homogeneous sub-domains are discussed, focussing on the impact of different model configurations (resolution, coupling and physical parameterisations) on the performance in reproducing observed precipitation. It is found that the agreement between the observed and modelled long-term statistics of extreme precipitation is more sensitive to the model convective parameterisation than to resolution or coupling.

Besides, possible changes in the intensity of heavy precipitation events at the end of the twenty-first century over the Euro-Mediterranean region are investigated, using a subset of the CMIP5 numerical climate simulations. As a measure of the intensity associated with heavy precipitation events, we use the difference between the 99th and the 90th percentiles. Despite a slight tendency to underestimate the observed heavy precipitation intensity during summer and to overestimate it during winter, the considered CMIP5 models well represent the observed patterns of the defined 99th–90th percentile metric during both seasons for the 1997–2005 period over the Euro–Mediterranean region. Over the investigated domain, an increase of the width of the right tail of the precipitation distribution is projected in a warmer climate, even over regions where nearly the entire precipitation distribution becomes dryer.

SISC Sixth Annual Conference - Book of Abstract 33 Climate Change in the Italian Mountains and the Mediterranean Region

Changes in snow cover characteristics alter soil C and N RAL O cycling in mountain areas

M. Freppaz1

1 Università degli Studi di Torino, DISAFA-NatRisk and LNSA

The insulating properties of snow influence the underlying soil temperature regime and the extent to which soil is directly exposed to freezing and thawing episodes. Small changes in temperature or precipitation may result in large changes in the amount and timing of snow cover, with significant effects on the pedoclimate and soil nutrient cycling. Aside from artificial manipulation (removal or addition of snow), time series of soil N and C forms under naturally changing snow cover and summer pedoclimatic conditions can provide information about the influence of these environmental factors on soil processes.

The research sites belong to the Italian LTER network (Istituto Mosso and Mont Mars), at elevations ranging between 1450 and 2480 m asl, close to the Monte Rosa Massif (Valle d’Aosta Region, NW Italian Alps). Through the snow manipulation experiments we found that long duration, early developing snowpacks allow soil to remain thawed throughout the snow-cover season. In contrast, the absence of consistent snow cover results in soils that may remain frozen throughout most of the winter, with signiifcant effects on soil N mineralization processes. Changes in snow cover duration (SCD) may significantly affect the soil temperature regime and the soil C and N cycling in the subsequent growing season. These results revealed how in mountain areas soil and snow should be considered a continuum, because of a strong and effective mutual interaction, which could change under a changing climate.

SISC Sixth Annual Conference - Book of Abstract 34 Climate Change in the Italian Mountains and the Mediterranean Region

Climate change impact assessment on mountain water

OSTER resources: a System Dynamics approach supporting multi-risk P management and adaptation planning

S. Terzi1,2, S. Torresan1,3, S. Schneiderbauer2, A. Critto1,3, M. Zebisch2, A. Marcomini1,3

1University Ca’ Foscari, Venice, Italy; 2Institute for Earth Observation, Eurac Research, Bolzano, Italy; 3Centro Euro- Mediterraneo sui Cambiamenti Climatici, Lecce, Italy

Mountain environments are facing important impacts due to climate change and human activities. Shifts of temperature and precipitation are affecting the amount of available water in mountain environments, especially decreasing snow and glaciers resources. Tourist activities, hydropower and agricultural production in the Alps usually rely on unsustainable use of water. Moreover, there is a need to understand the future impacts of climate change on water resources to design and implement risk management and adaptation strategies.

System dynamics modelling (SDM) combines biophysical and socio-economic variables allowing an explicit representation of their complex interactions and dependencies. A conceptual framework has been developed, encompassing climatic and anthropogenic drivers of impact on water availability as well as factors influencing socio-economic water demand from the strategic sectors of mountain regions (e.g. hydropower production, agriculture and tourism activities). This framework will be translated into a quantitative SDM model and applied to the Noce river within the Province of Trento (Italy), where concerns about water scarcity is rapidly increasing due to recent events of low winter snow precipitation and intensive spring-summer consumptions.

The model will integrate Euro-Cordex climate and land use scenarios to simulate future conditions of water availability, as well as water consumption data from touristic activities, hydropower and agricultural use, providing information on the current and future water demand. Results will shed light on mountain system’s resilience to water scarcity and future multiple impacts across different socio-economic sectors.

Finally, SDM will foster the understanding of the dynamics involved in the mountain water management, describing the emergent behaviour coming from variables interactions. By doing so, it would be possible

SISC Sixth Annual Conference - Book of Abstract 35 Climate Change in the Italian Mountains and the Mediterranean Region

to prioritize strategies that enhance system’s resilience and climate adaptation improving water efficiency, water storage and emergency management across different sectors.

SISC Sixth Annual Conference - Book of Abstract 36 Climate Change in the Italian Mountains and the Mediterranean Region

Climate-C cycle interactions in alpine grasslands over the past

OSTER 15 years: evidences from two eddy covariance sites located P in western and eastern Alps

O. Gavrichkova1, G. Filippa2, M. Mattioni1, E. Cremonese2, U. Morra di Cella2, C. Calfapietra1

1Institute of Agroenvironmental and Forest Biology, National Research Council, Porano, Italy; 2Environmental Protection Agency of Aosta Valley, Climate Change Unit, Italy

Climate change in the Alpine chain follows different trends in respect to northern-hemisphere averages. Increase in mean annual temperatures here occurred at twice as higher rate and amounted over the past century to 2 °C with major intensification starting from 1980s. Changes in the hydrological cycle have been documented, including trends to intensification of winter and spring precipitations in some areas and, on the contrary, significant and progressive drying on the yearly basis in the others. Considerable part of the alpine region is occupied by semi-natural grasslands shaped by agropastoral activity for more than 7000 years. Alpine grasslands are characterized by high plant and animal diversity and are recognized as important habitats of considerable ecological value at the European level. Confront of alpine grasslands functioning in terms of C sequestration capacity with other grassland types demonstrated that these ecosystems could perform as considerable sink for C [1]. In this study we attempted to analyze the interannual variation in ecosystem C exchange and its components, gross primary production and ecosystem respiration as well as the energy balance in two alpine grasslands located on different edges of the alpine chain. Brocon eddy covariance site is located at 1700 m asl in the eastern part of the Alpine chain with eddy covariance measurements being active from 2003 to 2007 and from 2015 to 2018. Torgnon site is location at 2100 m asl in the western part of the Alps with eddy covariance active since 2008. We took an advantage of considerable variation in the air temperature and precipitation patterns in the last two decades to study the main drivers of biological C fixation and C losses in two grasslands. The ecosystems demonstrated to be very dynamic, responding quickly to changes in the local climate. Monthly spring temperatures determined the onset of the vegetation season while its duration was related to the precipitation amount in the mid and late summer when grasses could pass to the senescence either prolong its sink maximum capacity. Considering being

SISC Sixth Annual Conference - Book of Abstract 37 Climate Change in the Italian Mountains and the Mediterranean Region

representative for the proper geographical area, regional differences in Alpine grasslands C balance were discussed taking as case examples Brocon and Torgnon sites.

References

1. Soussana, J.F., Loiseau, P., Vuichard, N., Ceschia, E., Balesdent, J., Chevallier, T. and Arrouays, D., 2004. Carbon cycling and sequestration opportunities in temperate grasslands. Soil use and management, 20(2), pp.219-230.

SISC Sixth Annual Conference - Book of Abstract 38 Climate Change in the Italian Mountains and the Mediterranean Region

Comparing tree-ring and pollen climate reconstructions in a RAL O central region of the Italian Alps

V. Maggi1,2, G. Leonelli1, F. Vallé1, M. Brunetti3, M. Maugeri3,4, R. Pini5, C. Ravazzi5

1Università degli Studi di Milano-Bicocca - Dept. of Earth and Environmental Sciences, Milano, Italy; 2IGG-CNR, Institute of Geosciences and Earth Resources, National Research Council, Pisa, Italy; 3ISAC-CNR, Institute of Atmospheric Sciences and Climate, National Research Council, Bologna, Italy; 4Università degli Studi di Milano - Dept. of Environmental Science and Policy, Milano, Italy; 5IDPA-CNR, Institute for the Dynamics of Environmental Processes, National Research Council, Milano, Italy

When approaching multi-proxy climate reconstructions, the selection of appropriate climate-sensitive records is a crucial step for assessing past climate variability. Both tree-ring and pollen-stratigraphical records have their own time resolution and they typically cover different time lengths. Tree rings allow annually-resolved reconstructions, however dendrochronological records rarely exceed 4-5k years and only few records cover the whole Holocene, whereas pollen records show variable time resolutions but go much further back in time. When comparing the variability of these two proxies it is therefore necessary to select a common period and to adjust the annually-resolved resolution of tree rings records to the generally lower and variable resolution of the pollen ones. A first comparison between two quantitative summer temperature reconstructions derived from tree-ring and a high-resolution pollen record (~9 years for the last 200 years) [1] was performed in the central region of the Italian Alps. An area of approximately 150 km of diameter was selected, comprising the pollen-stratigraphical record of Lake Lavarone (Trento) [1], base for the quantitative pollen-inferred reconstructions, and tree-ring series of European larch (Larix decidua Mill.), Swiss stone pine (Pinus cembra L.) and Norway spruce (Picea abies Karst.) from 42 sites located in five mountain groups: the Silvretta Group (Switzerland), the Ötztaler-Venoste Alps (Austria, Italy), the Bernina Group (Switzerland, Italy), the Ortles-Cevedale Group (Italy) and the Adamello-Presanella Group (Italy). Both the tree-ring [2] and the pollen-based reconstructions were previously calibrated using the modeled site-specific instrumental temperatures from an improved version of the dataset of Brunetti et al. (2006). The two independent summer temperature reconstructions, after adapting the tree-ring series to the varying time resolution of the pollen series, showed a correlation of +0.77 over the common period 1803-2003, thus opening the possibility of performing integrated multi-proxy climate reconstructions including more sites from the

SISC Sixth Annual Conference - Book of Abstract 39 Climate Change in the Italian Mountains and the Mediterranean Region

whole arch of the Italian Alps. Currently, the comparisons are being developed including tree-ring records from the whole Alpine arch and the pollen-stratigraphical records available in northern Italy, that could cover the last 200 years, or part of this interval, and have a good time resolution.

References

1. Arpenti E., Filippi M.L. (2007), Evoluzione della vegetazione nei pressi del Lago di Lavarone (TN) negli ultimi 2200 anni. Studi Trent. Sci. Nat., Acta Geol., 82, 317-324. - Brunetti M., Maugeri M., Monti F., Nanni T. (2006), Temperature and precipitation variability in Italy in the last two centuries from homogenised instrumental time series. Int. J. Climatol. 26, 345–381.

2. Leonelli G., Coppola A., Baroni C., Salvatore M.C., Maugeri M., Brunetti M., Pelfini M. (2016), Multispecies dendroclimatic reconstructions of summer temperature in the European Alps enhanced by trees highly sensitive to temperature. Climatic Change 137, 275–291, https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-016-1658- 5.

SISC Sixth Annual Conference - Book of Abstract 40 Climate Change in the Italian Mountains and the Mediterranean Region

Dendroclimatic temperature record derived from tree ring

OSTER width of the oldest living wood in the Southern Rhaetian Alps P (Ortles Cevedale Group, Italy)

R. Cerrato1, M.C. Salvatore1,2, M. Brunetti3, A. Coppola1, C. Baroni1,2

1Dipartimento di Scienze della Terra, University of Pisa, Italy; 2CNR – IGG, National Research Council – Institute of Geosciences and Earth Resources, Pisa, Italy; 3CNR – ISAC, National Research Council – Institute of Atmospheric Sciences and Climate, Bologna, Italy

The rising of the global mean temperatures with an unprecedented historically recorded rate is well documented and undeniable. In order to put the current temperatures in a long-term context and to better understand the ongoing climate change, instrumental and proxy data can be used. Nevertheless, the alpine regions often lack high altitude instrumental data and global data-sets could not accurately reproduce the temperature variations at the local scale. The Alpine chain represents a key site for understanding climatic interaction between Atlantic, Mediterranean and continental climatic conditions. Dendroclimatology allows to reconstruct long-term temperature variations in regions where local climate data exceeding one hundreds of years are not available. The “Bosco Antico” trees, belonging to the most ancient living wood of the Ortles-Cevedale area, can be considered quiet witnesses of climate variation since the earlier phases of the Little Ice Age. The derived composite chronology here presented offers a six hundred years-long dataset that records the temperature variations at seasonal resolution in Val di Sole area (Southern Rhaetian Alps, Italy). The analysis, carried out on earlywood, latewood and tree- ring width separately, pointed out that the all the chronologies are linked with June, July and August temperatures in mid-term variations. Considering the year-to year variability, instead, tree-ring and earlywood are more influenced by June temperatures whereas the latewood width is mainly driven by June and July temperatures. Our data furnish a mean summer latewood-based temperature reconstruction since 1525 A.D. The reconstruction perfectly catches the main temperature variations occurred in the last six centuries lengthening previously proposed local chronologies by about one hundred years. Main cold phases are highlighted during the 19th century and at the beginning of the 18th century tentatively ascribable to Dalton and Maunder solar stasis. Our results furnish a new dendroclimatic dataset for the Southern Rhaetian Alps that contribute to better understand the climate dynamics of this peculiar key site and improve both local and regional climate reconstructions. The

SISC Sixth Annual Conference - Book of Abstract 41 Climate Change in the Italian Mountains and the Mediterranean Region

comprehension of the local temperature variations at the annual resolution offer a key of interpretation of the response of glaciers to the rising temperatures.

References

1. Cerrato, R., Salvatore, M.C., Brunetti, M., Coppola, A., Baroni, C., 2018. Dendroclimatic relevance of “Bosco Antico”, the most ancient European larch living wood in Southern Rhaetian Alps (Italy). Submitted to Geografia Fisica e Dinamica Quaternaria. 2. Leonelli, G., Coppola, A., Baroni, C., Salvatore, M.C., Maugeri, M., Brunetti, M., Pelfini, M., 2016. Multispecies dendroclimatic reconstructions of summer temperature in the European Alps enhanced by trees highly sensitive to temperature. Clim. Change 137, 275–291. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584- 016-1658-5 3. Coppola, A., Leonelli, G., Salvatore, M.C., Pelfini, M., Baroni, C., 2013. Tree-ring-based summer mean temperature variations in the Adamello-Presanella Group (Italian Central Alps), 1610-2008 AD. Clim. Past 9, 211–221. https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-211-2013 4. Coppola, A., Leonelli, G., Salvatore, M.C., Pelfini, M., Baroni, C., 2012. Weakening climatic signal since mid-20th century in European larch tree-ring chronologies at different altitudes from the Adamello- Presanella Massif (Italian Alps). Quat. Res. 77, 344–354. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.yqres.2012.01.004

SISC Sixth Annual Conference - Book of Abstract 42 Climate Change in the Italian Mountains and the Mediterranean Region

Determination of the climate long-term changes by SST

RAL spectral analysis, in the northwestern Atlantic and O Mediterranean focusing on the satellite era (1982-2016)

V. Artale1,3, B. Buongiorno Nardelli1,2, S. Marullo1,3, A. Pisano1, R. Santoleri1

1Institute of Atmospheric Sciences and Climate (ISAC) of the Italian National Research Council (CNR), Roma, Italy; 2Institute for the Coastal Marine Environemnt (IAMC) of the Italian National Research Council (CNR), Napoli, Italy; 3Agenzia Nazionale per le Nuove Tecnologie, l’Energia e lo Sviluppo Economico Sostenibile, ENEA, Centro Ricerche Frascati, Frascati, Italy

Introduction

Estimating long-term SST (Sea Surface Temperature) changes is crucial to evaluate global warming impact at regional scales. In this work we analyze the Mediterranean (MED) and a Northwestern Atlantic Box (NWA) SST changes over the last 36 years (1982 - 2016) by using level 4 satellite data analysis. Also in-situ data were used in our analysis, specifically the direct SST measurements are available since the beginning of the XIX century giving the opportunity to construct or re-construct times series longer than 160 years. Two examples of such SST time series are the Extended Reconstructed SST (ERSST) and Hadley Centre Sea Ice and Sea Surface Temperature dataset (HadISST), here used to investigate long-time trends and multidecadal variability of the SST field in the Mediterranean Sea. Regarding the 1982-2016 period the analysis shows that the Atlantic Box and the Mediterranean Sea have similar trend behavior until 2001. Afterward the Mediterranean Sea SST continued to increase while the Atlantic Box SST persisted in its warming pause. Our analysis shows once again that the Mediterranean region is a hot spot in the Northern Hemisphere following its own respond to the climate change. Moreover at the mean time the specific spectral analysis of the longer (164 years) HadISST reconstruction shows that the increasing Mediterranean trend of the last 36 years is part of a multi-decadal oscillation related to AMO but also confirms the existence of a QBO like oscillation clearly present in the 36 years satellite SST time series. All these results make this basin an interesting climate test case to study the driving force generating the climate variability longer than seasonality. SST trend and seasonal analysis Since we are interested in variability on interannual time scales, we further eliminate variability at frequencies f > 0.5 cycles per year (T>2yr). There are many method to filter out this frequency, as for example the

SISC Sixth Annual Conference - Book of Abstract 43 Climate Change in the Italian Mountains and the Mediterranean Region

Chebyshev type-I low-pass filter, but in this case we obtained the best results using the SSA to filter out frequencies relative at period T>2yr. Moreover, to estimate the magnitude (°C/year) and significance of eventual trends in the Mediterranean SST, the Mann Kendall test and the Sens’s method have been applied. Mann Kendall test has the advantage of being non-parametric (in the sense that it makes no assumptions on data distribution) and it is much less sensitive to outliers and skewed distributions. From our analysis several features can also be recognized, a part the evident seasonal cycle of SST (not shown), from Fig. 1 the warming of the sea surface during 1982- 2016 is already well evident, in addition to some clear interannual signals. In particular, SST minima were registered during 1984, 1991, 1993 and 1996, while maximum SST values occurred during summer 2003. The 1982–2016 climatological SST pattern is characterized by a latitudinal pattern with the North-Western region colder than the South-Eastern corner, obviously due to the zonal solar irradiance gradient, it’s relevant to note as the mean zonal temperature gradient between the north and south Mediterranean Sea had an acceleration in the last decade in which the 19°C isotherm stay permanently up to the 40° latitude. This huge intrusion of 19°C isotherm at higher latitude will have certainly a strong impact on the near-future Mediterranean ecosystem. The spatial pattern of the SST trend (not shown) over the 1982 – 2016 time period shows a general surface warming. The magnitude of the trend increases moving eastwards, with minima in the Atlantic region and in the Western basin and maxima in the Cretan Arc and in the North Aegean Sea. These results are in agreement with several previous studies at both global and regional scales. Though minimum SST trends are found in areas generally characterized by a deeper upper mixed layer or recurrent deep convection (e.g. in the Gulf of Lions), the general pattern differs from both climatological mixed layer depth and seasonal thermocline depth estimates, indicating that spatial differences in the warming cannot be simply explained by the distribution of excess heat over a larger vertical layer, but rather point to the combination of mean advection and different local mean heat fluxes over the observed period. Further investigations on these aspects, however, are left for future work.

SSA Spectrum

In the following we analyze briefly the SSA of the reconstruction of the SST time series in which was filtering out the EOFs associated to trends (as detected via Kendal test). Among many oscillations detected by the spectral analysis the most interesting, because it was never, until now, reveled from the SST analysis, was the QBO. The quasi Biennial Oscillation (QBO) is a quasi-periodic oscillation of the equatorial zonal wind between easterlies and westerlies in the tropical stratosphere with a mean period of 28 to 29 months. We have found periods in the range 27.1 to 29.4 months explaining between 16%

SISC Sixth Annual Conference - Book of Abstract 44 Climate Change in the Italian Mountains and the Mediterranean Region

and 25% of the total variance of the low-pass filtered time series. Periods tend to increase moving from the Atlantic to the Eastern Mediterranean Sea.

Conclusion

In this paper we demonstrate that the Mediterranean Sea serves as sentinel (or as a hot spot) for the dramatic climate change that the ecosystem on Earth are experiencing at global and regional scale. More specifically, the first conclusion of our analysis was that, regarding the positive temperature trends, the Atlantic side of the Mediterranean Sea (represented by the NE Atlantic box) is in the “pause” since 2001. But in the Mediterranean Sea the SST are continuing to increase producing a bifurcation between NE Atlantic and Mediterranean trends that are becoming a “warming pool”. Secondly, the Mediterranean Sea is confirmed to work as a tremendous ocean case study also for assess and analyze the natural climate oscillation due to the external forcing driving the global climate variability. In fact, the Mediterranean SST shows evidences of low frequency variability from the 70 years comparable to AMO [1] to the QBO (around 28 months), moreover from analysis we extract also other even more interesting significant modes of oscillation as 4,39 yrs and 3,14 yrs, that was also recognized in the previous analysis [1] more likely linked to ENSO and NAO. Finally, the 1982-2016 increasing behavior of the SST is part of a larger oscillation similar to AMO.

References

1. Marullo, S, V. Artale and R. Santoleri: The Sea Surface Temperature multi-decadal variability in the Atlantic- Mediterranean region and its relation to AMO, J. of Climate, 2011, DOI: 10.1175/2011JCLI3884.1, ISSN: 0894- 8755.

SISC Sixth Annual Conference - Book of Abstract 45 Climate Change in the Italian Mountains and the Mediterranean Region

Effects of grazing pressure on biodiversity and ecosystem

RAL functioning in the alpine grassland of Brocon: a O multidisciplinary approach

G. Pretto1,4, A. Scartazza1, M. Mattioni1, M.C. Moscatelli2, T. Chiti2, R. Pini, C. Calfapietra1, O. Gavrichkova1

1Institute of Agroenvironmental and Forest Biology, National Research Council, Porano and Montelibretti, Italy; 2Department for Innovation in Biological, Agrofood and Forest Systems, University of Tuscia, Viterbo, Italy; 3Institute of Ecosystem Study, National Research Council, Pisa, Italy 4Department of Environmental Biology, Sapienza University, Rome, Italy

Alpine grasslands are the product of thousands of years of interactions between human activity and specific environmental conditions. This peculiar high-altitude biome is characterized by a humid and warm climate in summer and low temperatures and snow fall during the winter. Together with a continuous and intensive grazing of the herbivorous, mountain environment inhibits the development of arboreal vegetation while promoting herbaceous plants growth and short biological life cycles. At present time this vulnerable environment is in a changing state, caused by the abandonment of the traditional pastoral activities and climate change, which is particularly pronounced at high altitudes. The main aim this work was to quantify the ongoing changes in alpine grasslands through the evaluation of several biological parameters related to plant and soil microbial biomass functioning and of the soil structure as induced by changing in grazing regime. The study site, Brocon, is a mountain alpine grassland located 1700 m above the sea level in the eastern Alps (Cinte Tesino, Italy) and where different management regimes are practiced: a portion of pasture is excluded from grazing since 2002 and the rest of the area is divided into two pastures characterized by different duration and pressure of grazing. The site is equipped with an eddy covariance tower for continuous measurements of CO2 and H2O fluxes. Diversity and dominance of plant species in grazed and non-grazed plots was evaluated in July 2017 through biomass measurements and the estimation of diversity-related index such as Shannon and Simpson indices as well as species richness. Plant and soil material were analyzed for their C and N stable isotope composition in order to quantify changes in plant nutritional status, water and carbon use efficiency. Soil quality was evaluated by analyses of some important biochemical parameters such as enzymatic activities, microbial C and N content, microbial respiration and ecophysiological indices as microbial, metabolic and mineralization quotients (qmic, qCO2 and qM, respectively). Microbial functional diversity was further assessed by means of Shannon index calculated using data obtained from enzymatic

SISC Sixth Annual Conference - Book of Abstract 46 Climate Change in the Italian Mountains and the Mediterranean Region

activities. The results demonstrated considerable changes in plant nutritional status and in plant species richness with the loss of numerous plant species in plots excluded from grazing. Changes in ecosystem C and N cycles were confirmed at the soil biochemical level with the tendency to loose C from soil in plots subjected to grazing exclusion.

References

1. N. Pepin, R.S. Bradley, H.F. Diaz, et al., Elevation-dependent warming in mountain regions of the world, Nature Climate Change 5 (5), 424, 2015 2. E. Palazzi, L. Mortarini, S. Terzago, J. von Hardenberg, Elevation-dependent warming in global climate model simulations at high spatial resolution, Climate Dynamics, In Press, 2018 3. L.V. Alexander, Global observed long-term changes in temperature and precipitation extremes: A review of progress and limitations in IPCC assessments and beyond, Weather and Climate Extremes, 11, 4-16, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.wace.2015.10.007, 2016

SISC Sixth Annual Conference - Book of Abstract 47 Climate Change in the Italian Mountains and the Mediterranean Region

Evaluation of the performance of Regional Climate Models

RAL simulation at different spatial and temporal scale over the O Alpine Region

A. Reder1, M. Raffa1, M. Montesarchio1,2, P. Mercogliano1,2

1Fondazione Centro Euro-Mediterraneo sui Cambiamenti Climatici, Regional Models and geo-Hydrological Impacts Division (REMHI), Via Maiorise, 81043 Capua, CE, Italy; 2C.I.R.A. – Italian Aerospace Research Center, Meteo Laboratory, Via Maiorise, 81043 Capua, CE, Italy

The need for climate change information at the regional-to-local scale represents a crucial goal within the global change debate. It is posing hard challenges to climate researchers that are involved in recognizing the best strategies to reduce, on one hand, the scale gap between time-spatial data projected by climate models and, on the other hand, requirements of impact practitioners involving in the management processes of stakeholders and policy-makers, such as the planning of climate policies for adaptation to climate change. This is a fundamental point because impact models consider, as input, data on climatological timescales at spatial and temporal resolutions that are not readily available from current standard climate simulations.

Generally, the strategy recognized as the most effective in the last years focuses on the use of Regional Climate Models (RCMs) projections. These projections are however usually characterized by diverse sources of uncertainties, such as the forcing data, the observational datasets considered for the evaluation of RCMs outputs and some specific model parameterizations. All these sources may affect the simulation accuracy. In this sense, it has been proved that changing horizontal resolution can lead to different model performances even if it is much more computationally expensive. For the abovementioned reasons, studies centered on the potential added values provided by a refinement of spatial resolution are necessary mainly to quantify the advantages in considering time expensive projections for limited area applications.

In order to address these issues, in the framework of the NextData FISR project, this work shows a comparison among three climate simulations at different spatial scale. Two simulations are those performed by CMCC and characterized by different configurations of the regional climate model COSMO- CLM. The first configuration, named CCLM 8, is a climate simulation characterized by a spatial resolution

SISC Sixth Annual Conference - Book of Abstract 48 Climate Change in the Italian Mountains and the Mediterranean Region

of 0.0715° (about 8 km) driven by the ERA-Interim; the second configuration, named CCLM 2.2 is instead a finer climate simulation with a spatial resolution of 0.02° (about 2.2 km) directly nested by the CCLM 8. Both configurations are considered for the model evaluation at the daily and sub-daily scale. The advantages of moving from a coarser resolution (8 km) to a finer one (2.2 km) consist in a better representation of real topography and the possibility of switching off the deep convection parameterization, improving the reproduction of the mesoscale circulation dynamics and the possible elevation dependencies of the near-surface climate change. The last simulation is represented by the Ensemble Mean carried out considering all the projections available at May 2018 in the framework of the Euro-CORDEX project at a spatial resolution of 0.11° (about 12 km). Contrary to the first two configurations, the Ensemble Mean is considered only at the daily scale.

The comparisons are performed assuming precipitation as proxy of interest and focusing on the Alpine Region, delimited spatially through the boundaries suggested by the Alpine Convention. This is a crucial point of the whole study since Alpine Regions represents one of the most challenging areas for RCMs applications. They are influenced indeed by several climate conditions and are characterized by different climatic dynamics related to their orography. Moreover, their complex topography, with an alternance of numerous valleys and very high peaks, and their land sea distribution may introduce synoptic scale disturbances, leading to several mesoscale flow features and precipitation processes.

The differences among the distinct configurations introduced above are assessed considering as observations the EURO4M dataset for daily precipitation, in the period 1980-2009 and data provided by 11 local weather stations for sub-daily precipitation, in the period 1995-2010 for different altitudes. Precipitation data are processed using indicators proposed by the ETCCDI and statistical models able to assess the precipitation distribution and the extreme values for different duration of the precipitation events.

In terms of daily precipitation, all datasets, remapped with bilinear interpolation over the EURO4m grid, are analyzed clustering results according to altitude to investigate the effect of orography. Data are elaborated for the seasons DJF (December-January-February) and JJA (June-July-August). The results highlight that CCLM 2.2 provides in some cases a better agreement with observation data, improving projections especially for the highest altitudes. In this case, however, a limit is provided by the horizontal resolution of the observational dataset (5 km) that compared to the CCLM 2.2 (2.2 km) may not capture all the dynamics of the finer resolution. Moreover, JJA events are carefully investigated with the aim of understanding whether the improvement in horizontal resolution involves only variations in rainfall

SISC Sixth Annual Conference - Book of Abstract 49 Climate Change in the Italian Mountains and the Mediterranean Region

intensity or also variation in the number of events, due to the ability of a finer resolution to capture dynamics differently against coarser resolutions.

In terms of sub-daily precipitation, as already stated, the comparison is carried out considering only the CMCC simulations. In this perspective, the position of local stations is considered to select a corresponding grid point from the CCLM 8.8 and CCLM 2.2 grids using the nearest neighbor interpolation with a specific refinement for the CCLM 2.2 for which also an altitude constraint is introduced. Also in this case, data are elaborated for the seasons DJF and JJA. Specifically, the statistical distribution of precipitation is evaluated fitting data at time resolution of 6hr through Gamma distribution and GEV function, respectively for the entire datasets and maximum values. The results show a better representation of CCLM 2.2 dynamics at the sub-daily scale compared to the CCLM 8 simulation.

This study, such as others performed in the same way, returns encouraging findings suggesting the development and using of finer high-resolution climate models for regional and local impact studies. In this sense, the preliminary results of a sensitivity studies demonstrate how the configuration is very sensitive to the usage of a different microphysics parameterizations for grid-scale precipitation.

SISC Sixth Annual Conference - Book of Abstract 50 Climate Change in the Italian Mountains and the Mediterranean Region

Experimental Hydrological Database for Apennine Basins’ OSTER

P (DIBA, Database Idrologico Bacini Appenninici)

S. Barbetta1, M. Borga2, L. Brocca1, S. Camici1, L. Ciabatta1, C. Corradini1, S. Crema1, L. Marchi1, T. Moramarco1

1Research Institute for Geo-hydrological Protection, National Research Council, Italy; 2University of Padova, Department of Land Environment, Agriculture and Forestry, Italy

Introduction

New monitoring techniques (ground and remote sensing) for key hydrologic variables, such as rainfall and temperature, on the one hand, and soil moisture and river discharge, on the other hand, are critically important in mountain areas to investigate the hydrological cycle. Moreover, the new technologies (radar, remote sensing), which are attractive for the derivation of spatially distributed hydrological information, require data validation with ground measurements. On this basis, a reliable hydro-meteorological network is essentials for the advance in the knowledge of runoff generation process which is fundamental both for water resources management and hydraulic risk prevention and mitigation.

Objective

The Special Project ”Database Idrologico Bacini Appenninici” (DIBA), developed in the NextData CNR program, funded by the Italian Ministry of Education, University and Research, is aimed to develop a hydro-meteorological database as a component of the ‘Network of Excellence’ for the monitoring of mountains areas and to improve the knowledge of the hydrological cycle. DIBA is intended to provide a useful hydro-meteorological dataset to leverage for analyses concerning the climate and the main hydrological processes in catchments using ground and satellite observations. DIBA is structured as a WEB-GIS platform allowing, on the one hand, a wide sharing and participation of data by WEB and, on the other hand, a better use of data itself by GIS. The latter applies mainly to the identification of temporal-space pattern of hydrological variables and the inventory of thematic maps.

Data Structure

SISC Sixth Annual Conference - Book of Abstract 51 Climate Change in the Italian Mountains and the Mediterranean Region

DIBA is built on the basis of the collection of hydro-meteorological time series of two pilot Apennines basins: the Upper-Chiascio basin (460 km2), in central Italy, and the Magra basin (1698 km2), in northwest Italy. Time series recorded by 66 rain-gauges, 63 thermometers, 8 hydrometric stations, 3 meteorological stations and one soil moisture station are included in the web-gis platform. For the Chiascio basin, the recorded half-hourly data are relative to different availability periods of the monitoring stations (time series last from 7 to 26 years). Daily data are also available. For the Magra basin, different hourly and daily time series are available at the stations which are currently managed by two regions (Liguria and Tuscany). For the two pilot basins, DIBA also holds rainfall data from radar and satellite (TMPA rainfall product, H05 rainfall product) as well as soil moisture satellite products (ASCAT, AMSR- E, MODIS, SMOS). Moreover, the database allows to manage thematic maps (channel network, sub- basins, land use, lithology, SCS Curve Number). Climate scenarios are also available for GCM as HadCM3, CMCC-CM e EC-Earth starting from the baseline period (1960-1990) and for downscaled future scenarios. Experimental campaigns for soil moisture monitoring in hillslope portions by Time Domain Reflectometry and streamflow measurements in selected river sites using non-contact radar sensor were realized to feed DIBA and to be used for hydrological analysis.

Data analysis

The outcomes of the measurements campaigns carried out in 2014-2015 for monitoring the degree of saturation in selected hillslopes of the Chiascio basin indicated that the areas more/less wet remain always the same ones, highlighting how the spatial variability of degree of saturation is strictly related with that of soil structure and topography. A high correlation (R>0.8) is found between the average soil moisture of hillslope and surface velocity of river flow at outlet of basin.

DIBA contains data referring to the application of a continuous semi-distributed hydrological model, named MISDc (‘Modello Idrologico Semi-Distribuito in continuo’), developed by CNR-IRPI (Brocca et al., 2011). MISDc uses a two-layers scheme of the soil and is initialized by rainfall and temperature data. The temporal evolution of the two independent soil water states of basin and the discharge at the basin outlet are simulated and embedded in DIBA. MISDc provided the initial soil moisture state before of floods which is of paramount importance to identify the degree of saturation to use for analysis.

The model was applied to two monitored sections in the Chiascio River basin (Branca and La Chiusa) and to the Magra River at the Calamazza stream-gauge, which drains most of basin area and is critical for flooding. The obtained results show the good performance of the hydrological model in simulating the observed discharge. For example, the Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency, NSE, was satisfactory for the

SISC Sixth Annual Conference - Book of Abstract 52 Climate Change in the Italian Mountains and the Mediterranean Region

calibration analysis for Branca and Calamazza section with a value equal to 0.924 and 0.804, respectively. Also the computed values of NSE adapted for high-flow conditions, ANSE, and the coefficient of determination, R2, clearly indicate a good accuracy of the model (ANSE=0.961 and 0.861, R2=0.926 and 0.911 for Branca and Calamazza section, respectively). When La Chiusa section is of concern, a lower accuracy is observed (NSE=0.66, ANSE= 0.682, R2=0.775), but it is worth mentioning that the rating curve for La Chiusa section could be affected by uncertainties for medium- high stage values.

The calibrated MISDc model was also applied to identify climate scenarios by using as input data the selected GCM models, downscaled with observed hydrological time series. The analysis also identified hydrological trends and the ensuing runoff regime scenarios expected in the next decades.

Finally, the project identified appropriate guidelines for river discharge estimate through post-flash flood surveys (Gaume and Borga, 2008). The method used in Intensive Post-Event Campaigns (IPEC) (Marchi et al., 2009) provided data on flood response (peak discharge, time evolution of the flood, interactions with slope instability and geomorphic processes in channels), thus complementing the harmonization of hydro-meteorological database and the collection of soil moisture and flow velocity data in the two basins. An approach based on the linear error analysis of the Manning-Strickler equation, applied for post-flood estimate of peak discharge in the IPECs, was developed to assess the observational errors associated to topographic measurements, roughness coefficient estimation and to geomorphic changes caused by the flood in the surveyed sections (Amponsah et al., 2016).

Conclusions

Activities planned in DIBA project were efficiently developed and meaningful results were achieved in terms of collection, organization and analysis of the available hydro-meteorological and climate data. The database, made available through a Web-GIS platform, was included as a component of the “Network of Excellence” for the monitoring of mountains areas in the context of the program NextData. DIBA can be conveniently exported for the characterization of the meteo-climate evolution in different mountain areas.

References

1. Amponsah, W., Marchi, L., Zoccatelli, D., Boni, G., Cavalli, M., Comiti, F., Crema, S., Lucía, A., Marra, F., Borga, M. (2016) Hydrometeorological characterisation of a flash flood associated with major geomorphic effects: Assessment of peak discharge uncertainties and analysis of the runoff response, J. of Hydrom., 17, 3063- 3077.

SISC Sixth Annual Conference - Book of Abstract 53 Climate Change in the Italian Mountains and the Mediterranean Region

2. Brocca, L., Melone, F., Moramarco, T. (2011). Distributed rainfall-runoff modelling for flood frequency estimation and flood forecasting, Hydrol. Proc., 25, 2801–2813. 3. Gaume, E, Borga, M. (2008) Post-flood field investigations in upland catchments after major flash floods: proposal of a methodology and illustrations, J. Flood Risk Management, 1, 175–189. 4. Marchi, L., Borga, M., Preciso, E., Sangati, M., Gaume, E., Bain, V., Delrieu, G., Bonnifait, L., Pogačnik, N. (2009) Comprehensive post-event survey of a flash flood in Western Slovenia: observation strategy and lessons learned, Hydrol. Proc., 23, 3761-3770.

SISC Sixth Annual Conference - Book of Abstract 54 Climate Change in the Italian Mountains and the Mediterranean Region

First measurement results on greenhouse gases collected at

OSTER the high-altitude Monte Curcio observatory in the southern P Mediterranean region

M. Bencardino1, F. D’Amore1, J. Castagna1,2,3, V. Mannarino1, S. Moretti1,2, A. Naccarato1, F. Sprovieri1, N. Pirrone4

1CNR-IIA, c/o Polifunzionale UNICAL, 87036 Rende (CS), Italy; 2Department of Physics, University of Calabria and INFN, 87036 Rende (CS), Italy; 3now at CNR-IMAA, C.da S. Loja, 85050 Tito Scalo (PZ), Italy; 4CNR-IIA, 00016 Monterotondo (RM), Italy

The High-altitude Monte Curcio (CUR) station is a Climatic-Environmental Observatory located at 1796 m a.s.l. (39.2°N 16.2°E) on the southern Apennine mountain peak, in a strategic and isolated position within the Sila National Park. It is interestingly placed on the middle of the Mediterranean basin with completely free horizon allowing to gain atmospheric monitoring measurements with a large spatial representativeness. CUR is a new permanent Regional Atmosphere Watch station (WMO/GAW) and it is part of various on-going European and National measurement programmes, being part of the Global Mercury Observations System (GMOS) Network as well as of the High-altitude Climatic Observation System and Climate Station Network (NextDATA). In this context and since 2015, the station provides quality-controlled and high-temporal resolved data on atmospheric composition and greenhouse gases (GHGs). In this work we present a characterization of the first continuous dataset (January 2015- December 2017) on CO2/CH4/CO levels recorded at CUR station by using a Cavity Ring-Down Spectometer (CRDS)-based analyser (Picarro, G2401 model). CO2 measurements revealed an interesting seasonal and inter-annual variability. The annul mean value in 2016 (395.1 ppm) at CUR was lower than the highest one (403.3 ppm) recorded worldwide as the global mean CO2 surface mole fraction [1]. Otherwise, a noticeable variation ranging from 390.2 ppm, as mean level during summertime, to peak values up to 405.3 ppm, reached during the winter season, was observed. This seasonal amplitude is likely attributable to photosynthetic depletion from vegetation around the sampling site. An inter-annual increase of 3 ppm/year was instead detected over the three-years of our measurements, resulting larger than that reported in literature [2]. Both CH4 and CO concentrations measured at CUR, whose background mean values were equal to 1.88 ± 0.05 and 0.12 ± 0.02 ppm respectively, were lower than other available Italian in-situ measurements [3]. However, the intense

SISC Sixth Annual Conference - Book of Abstract 55 Climate Change in the Italian Mountains and the Mediterranean Region

season of wildfires occurred around the monitoring station in summer 2017 made the CO levels rise to 0.50 ppm with a concomitant huge increase in the concentrations of Black Carbon (BC), a short-lived greenhouse gas also measured at our station. Wildfires, which are expected to continue to increase in number and severity as the climate changes, represent then a positive feedback in exacerbating the global warning and are worthy of attention, mainly in our study area [4]. A deeper investigation of the presented dataset, together with further efforts in atmospheric and climatic monitoring collection, will provide a useful and unique window in the central-southern Mediterranean region, which is recognized as one of the most responsive to air pollution and climate change.

References

1. WMO, 2018. Statement on the State of the Global Climate in 2017. WMO-No. 1212. 2. Houghton, R.: Balancing the Global Carbon Budget, Annual Review of Earth and Planetary Sciences, 35, 313–347, 35 https://doi.org/10.1146/annurev.earth.35.031306.140057, 2007. 3. Cristofanelli, P., Busetto, M., Calzolari, F., Ammoscato, I., Gullì, D., Dinoi, A., ... & Piacentino, S. (2017). Investigation of reactive gases and methane variability in the coastal boundary layer of the central Mediterranean basin. Elem Sci Anth, 5. 4. Cristofanelli, P., Fierli, F., Marinoni, A., Calzolari, F., Duchi, R., Burkhart, J., ... & Bonasoni, P. (2013). Influence of biomass burning and anthropogenic emissions on ozone, carbon monoxide and black carbon at the Mt. Cimone GAW-WMO global station (Italy, 2165 m asl). Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, 13(1), 15-30.

SISC Sixth Annual Conference - Book of Abstract 56 Climate Change in the Italian Mountains and the Mediterranean Region

Hardware & software infrastructure and technology development at the CNR-IDPA's Col Margherita atmospheric OSTER

P observatory (Eastern Dolomites, Italian Alps - NextData project)

F. Dallo1, J. Gabrieli1, F. de Blasi1, M. Vardè1,2, W. Cairns1, G. Cozzi1, P. Cristofanelli3, L. Naitza3, M. Busetto3, F. Roccato3, R. Marin4, P. Bonasoni3, C. Barbante1,5

1CNR-Institute for the Dynamics of Environmental Processes (IDPA), Venice, Italy; 2Department of Chemistry and Pharmaceutical Sciences, University of Ferrara, Italy; 3CNR- Institute of Atmospheric Sciences and Climate (ISAC), Bologna, Italy; 4Area Servizi Informatici e Telecomunicazioni (ASIT), Ca'Foscari University of Venice, Italy; 5Department of Environmental Sciences Informatics and Statistics, Ca'Foscari University of Venice, Italy

Key aspects for the management of a remote high altitude environmental monitoring station are (i) reliable and continuous operation of the instrumentation, (ii) remote control and communication with the acquisition systems and (iii) proper data management and sharing within a project network and to a wider audience. Based on these needs, from the objectives of the ongoing projects (NextData, iGOSP- EraPlanet), the Institute for the Dynamics of Environmental Processes-CNR located in Venice has improved the infrastructure of the Col Margherita (MRG) atmospheric observatory (46.36683 N, 11.79192 E, 2543 AMSL - http://colmargherita.dsa.unive.it), a monitoring site that was established in 2013 during the GMOS project. The harsh conditions at the site and the absence of in-situ permanent staff in the area revealed problems due to inadequacies in the automation and control software, these have now been assessed and corrected and new hardware/software solutions are constantly evaluated to increase the reliability of the whole site. Working in accordance with the Open Geospatial Consortium (OGC) standards, we are working towards the complete automation of the acquisition, transmission, and visualization processes, as well as the automatic validation and production of reports based on the measured data. The analyzers and sensors are now integral parts of a reliable information technology system, conceived and developed on a real-time Linux architecture. Our system integrates different types of communication channels and is easily scalable to interface with different sensor brands, acquiring and synchronizing multiple data formats and rates for an extended duration. We are currently using high level

SISC Sixth Annual Conference - Book of Abstract 57 Climate Change in the Italian Mountains and the Mediterranean Region

hardware from several commercial brand, but we are also evaluating low cost solutions such as Raspberry Pi and Arduino boards as well as new sensor technology brands, to evaluate the performance of low cost sensors in environmental monitoring. We have relied on LabView and Python for data acquisition and well known tools (such as crontab, rsync) for copying and synchronizing data between different physical and virtual devices. R is used to perform statistical analysis and to build web applications. Automatic reporting is performed with LaTeX. We are using cloud storage to ease sharing data with other research groups. The Col Margherita site currently has an automatic weather station (AWS) for the main meteorological parameters, an atmospheric mercury analyzer and ozone monitor so we are able to integrate measurements of physical-chemical parameters with data from environmental sampling campaigns. New sensors (O3, Hg, POPs) are currently under developement in the framework of ongoing research projects (O3NET and iGOSP-EraPlanet). They will be installed alongside the current ozone and mercury analysers to verify their functionality and accuracy in harsh environments with background concentrations of pollutants. These levels are generally significantly lower than those found in contaminated areas. This presentation will provide an overview of the systems used to ensure timely and up-to-date sharing and back up of data collected at MRG.

SISC Sixth Annual Conference - Book of Abstract 58 Climate Change in the Italian Mountains and the Mediterranean Region

Elevation dependent climate change in the greater Alpine RAL O region

E. Arnone1,2, E. Palazzi1, J. von Hardenberg1

1Institute of Atmospheric Sciences and Climate (ISAC), National Research Council (CNR), Torino, Italy; 2Department of Physics, University of Torino, Italy

Elevation dependent warming has been observed in several mountain regions of the globe [1], with higher rates of warming having occurred at increasingly higher altitudes over the past decades. Similarly, greater trends of warming in mountain regions, compared to sea level trends, have been found to occur in XXI century climate model projections (e.g., [2]). We used an ensemble of XXI century multi-model projections to investigate whether a similar elevation dependency can be found also in the projected change of climate extremes. Climate extremes were studied adopting a selection of indices from the ETCCDI project (e.g., [3]), including temperature and precipitation extremes and spells. Our results show an elevation dependent change in temperature and in several adopted indices, pointing towards an amplification of the change in temperature extremes and of a shift from low intensity to heavy precipitation in mountain regions. Results are discussed in the framework of the NextData project with particular attention to the Alpine region.

SISC Sixth Annual Conference - Book of Abstract 59 Climate Change in the Italian Mountains and the Mediterranean Region

Italian Western Tauri glaciers (Eastern Alps) life expectancy in OSTER

P XXI century

S. Zecchetto1, R. Serandrei-Barbero2, S. Donnici3

1CNR-ISAC, Padova, Italy; 2former CNR-ISMAR, Venezia and Comitato Glaciologico Italiano, Torino, Italy; 3CNR- ISMAR, Venezia, Italy

In this work, a linear model has been used to analyze the future changes of the Italian Western Tauri glaciers until the 2100 as forced by the temperature increase according to the A1B scenario [3], which indicates an increase of temperature of 0.25 degree per decade until the mid of the 21st century and of 0.36 degree per decade in the second half of the century. These temperature projections have been used by [1] for their analysis of the future climate change in the European Alps. The temperature signal from 2018 to 2099 has been derived making up the temperature variations from the two scenarios. This signal has been used as forcing for the linear model developed by [2] and applied for the first time to three medium-size valley glaciers located on the Italian side of the Alps [4], to derive the climatological glacier length variations. It has been possible to apply the model to 13 over 46 glaciers inventoried in 2008 in the area. To the end of this century, the model projections indicate length reductions between 20% and above 45% with a resulting surface loss of more than 75%. The consequent fragmentation of the glaciers in smaller units, with progressive increase in climatic sensitivity, would extinguish till the 95% of the living glaciers by the end of the century. On the Italian Eastern Alps, in 2008 the 60% of the glaciers had an area < 0.5 km square and the 13% >1 km square, with dimensions similar to those of the Western Tauri. Therefore, extending the model's projections to the whole area, it can be hypothesized that in 2100, only 3% of the glaciers present in 2008, will survive.

References

1. Gobiet A, Kotlarski S, Beniston M, Heinrich G, Rajczak J, Stoffel M. 2014. 21th century climate change in the European Alps-a review. Science of the total environment 493: 1138-1151, doi:10.1016/j.scitotenv.2013.07.050.

2. Leclercq PW, Oerlemans J. 2012. Global and hemispheric temperature re- contruction from glacier length fluctuations. Climate Dynamics 38: 1065-1079, doi:10.1007/s00382-011-1145-7.

SISC Sixth Annual Conference - Book of Abstract 60 Climate Change in the Italian Mountains and the Mediterranean Region

3. Nakicenovic N, 27 others. 2000. A special report of working group III of the intergovernamental panel on climate change. Technical report.

4. Zecchetto S, Serandrei-Barbero R, Donnici S. 2017. Temperature reconstruction from the length fluctuations of small glaciers in the eastern Alps (northeastern Italy). Climate Dynamics 49(1-2): 363-374, doi: 10.1007/s00382- 016-3347-5.

SISC Sixth Annual Conference - Book of Abstract 61 Climate Change in the Italian Mountains and the Mediterranean Region

Long-term monitoring of animal biodiversity: state and OSTER

P expected changes in the NW Italian Alps

R. Viterbi1, C. Cerrato1, E. Rocchia1, C. Tha1, R. Bionda2, B. Bassano1, A. Provenzale3

1Gran Paradiso national Park; 2Ossola protected areas; 3The Institute of Geosciences and Earth Resources (IGG)

Understanding the distribution patterns that multiple taxa, characterised by different functional roles, show along elevational gradients represents an important task in conservation biology and an opportunity to gain a better overview of possible responses of mountain ecosystems to climate and land-cover changes. For these reasons, in 2006-2007, Gran Paradiso National Park (GPNP) developed a monitoring scheme to set the basis for the establishment of a longterm dataset, focused on multi-taxa community data. The protocol will be maintained over time and repeated every 5 years (2 years monitoring - 4 years stop; 2006-2007, 2012-2013 until now; 2018-2019 next session). In 2007- 2008, the project was extended to two other protected areas in the NW Italian Alps (Orsiera-Rocciavré Natural Park and Veglia Devero Natural Park). Thanks to the Next Data Project and led by GPNP, as planned, in the years 2012-2013, the 3 protected areas carried out together the first repetition of the sampling activities. Moreover, in 2013-2014, 3 more Italian National Parks (Dolomiti Bellunesi NP, Stelvio NP, Val Grande NP), located in the Alps, started the same monitoring project. Currently, 6 Italian Parks, all located in the Alpine Region and covering its natural variability, are sharing a common protocol to study animal biodiversity in mountain ecosystems. Main objectives are to measure and forecast the biodiversity status, describing animal biodiversity along altitudinal gradients in space and time and estimating the risk of biodiversity loss through the application of environmental changes scenario. In each protected area, altitudinal transects along the major valleys have been identified, covering an altitude that ranges from 500 to 2800 m a.s.l., within the montane, the subalpine and the alpine belts. Each transect is composed by 4-7 sampling units separated by an altitudinal range of 200 meters. In the sampling units, 7 taxa (Aves, Lepidoptera Rhopalocera, Orthoptera, Coleoptera Staphylinidae, Coleoptera Carabidae, Hymenoptera Formicidae, Araneae) are monitored, using standardized, easy to apply and cheap sampling techniques. Each sampling station is also characterized by topographic, environmental and micro-climatic (temperature) parameters, both collected in the field and derived from remote sensing data. Results from the first sampling sessions (2006-2008) showed that species richness and community composition of invertebrates are determined mainly by altitude and

SISC Sixth Annual Conference - Book of Abstract 62 Climate Change in the Italian Mountains and the Mediterranean Region

microclimate, whereas birds are more sensitive to habitat structure. Species richness presents a common hump-shaped trend along the altitudinal gradient, with a peak in the subalpine belt, while the proportion of alpine endemic and vulnerable species increases with altitude, reaching highest values in the alpine belt. First comparisons between the two sampling seasons for Lepidoptera Rhopalocera (2006-2008 vs 2012-2013) allowed to highlight unexpected changes, considering the short time frame (only five years) and the environmental stability potentially guaranteed by the protection status of the sampling sites. In particular, we observed a general increase in mean occupancy level (number of plot per species) and in species richness, but changes differed across species and ecological groups. Overall community composition didn’t change, but we observed an increase in shared species and a tendency towards homogenisation. With data coming from the first sampling session, we developed presence-only distribution models, which allowed us to estimate the effects of a moderate temperature increase on the multi-taxa distributions. The results indicated small expected changes in the overall biodiversity patterns, but different responses depending on habitat and degree of specialization. Changes in species richness are more pronounced in the alpine belt and for vulnerable species. Community composition significantly shifted but maintaining the separation between vegetation belts. Due to the outstanding importance of the "biodiversity indicators" concept and considering that biodiversity surrogates represent an important simplification of the monitoring effort, as well as, an easy and quick tool to identify the first signal of environmental changes, we also focused on this topic. We observed that some taxa can act as biodiversity surrogates, showing coherence through time, but differences between habitat types and along the altitudinal gradient. This interesting pattern needs more in-depth analysis but suggests how, in particular in mountain ecosystems, focusing only on one or two taxa cannot give a reliable representation of global biodiversity patterns. Finally, we focused on functional diversity (FD), as one of the biodiversity components that better explain the mechanisms linking biodiversity and ecosystem processes. Within this framework, we provide an explorative analysis on the feasibility of a trait-based approach in mountain ecosystems and how this can be a sensitive and practical tool to predict community response to environmental changes. As a first step, a functional database was created for each taxon, selecting the set of functional traits that can better explain how communities are influenced by environmental changes. But we found constraints in finding ecological and life-history information for species that are endemic to the Alps or specialised to the alpine environment. Subsequently, we analysed changes in FD through time, focusing on the influence of species richness and environmental variables on the observed patterns. Differences occurred between years, indicating that few changes in community composition may lead to functional differences, despite the short timescale considered. Indeed, the alpine environment is strictly linked to weather variability and characterised by less stable communities than at

SISC Sixth Annual Conference - Book of Abstract 63 Climate Change in the Italian Mountains and the Mediterranean Region

low altitude. Moreover, FD showed in most cases a strong relationship with temperature and altitude, indicating that these are the environmental factors that most influence the community functional structure. The project "Monitoring of animal biodiversity in mountain ecosystems", offering a representative sample of the Italian Alps, will gain greater value through time: long-term field data are essential for confirming our observations and fine-tuning our predictions, in order to plan the most adequate conservation strategies.

SISC Sixth Annual Conference - Book of Abstract 64 Climate Change in the Italian Mountains and the Mediterranean Region

Multitemporal glaciers inventory of the Italian Alps, a basic RAL O tool for reconstructing the ongoing climate change

M.C. Salvatore1,2,3, C. Baroni1,2,3, A. Carton3,4, M. Giardino3,5, L. Alderighi6, S.

Bertotto6, S. Gennaro1, L. Perotti3,5, T. Zanoner3,6

1University of Pisa, Dipartimento di Scienze della Terra; 2CNR-IGG, Institute of Geosciences and Earth Resources; 3CGI - Comitato Glaciologico Italiano, Italian Glaciological Committee; 4University of Padua, Dipartimento di Geoscienze; 5University of Turin, Dipartimento di Scienze della Terra; 6CNR-IRPI, Research Institute for Geo- hydrological Protection

Mountain glaciers are very sensitive environmental indicators as they react to climate changes, in particular summer temperature and winter precipitation rate, by modifying their size and shape as a consequence of variation on their mass balance. Since the end of the maximum Holocene advance, occurred during the Little Ice Age in the first half of the 19th Century, the Alps experienced general glaciers shrinkage particularly conspicuous over the last decades. The availability of accurate quantitative measurements of glaciological parameters is the base for better understanding and defining relationships between glaciers variations and climate changes. Datasets on glacier areal variations provide clear evidence of widespread glaciers retreat along the whole Alpine chain, with accelerated shrinkage during the last decades. Glacier inventories represent relevant tools for quantifying glaciers extension and volume and to estimate the impacts of glacier changes on the availability of water resources as well as on the progressive widening of paraglacial environment. Here we present a dataset that outline the state of Italian glaciers during different hydrological periods (1957-1958, 1988-1989, 2006-2007, 2014- 2015), realized in the framework of the Nextdata Project. Our aim is to improve the knowledge of the Italian glacial resource through the creation of a dynamic and updateable quantitative inventory. The updated multitemporal picture of the glacial resource in the Italian Alps is being realized through the acquisition of the most up to date available information on glaciers, taking into account the existing international standards adopted in glaciological studies. Glaciers outlines were detected by the interpretation of a new set of orthorectified aerial photos at high geometric resolution available through the Web Map Service (WMS) provided by national and local Geoportals. Glacial bodies outlines were manually digitized from by means of a GIS environment, for mapping glaciers as polygons in a vector domain. Alpha-numeric attribute table associated with the glacier outline retains the main morphometric glaciological parameters (area, maximum length, width, slope, max and min elevation, aspect, latitude

SISC Sixth Annual Conference - Book of Abstract 65 Climate Change in the Italian Mountains and the Mediterranean Region

and longitude of the glacier centroid) according to the World Glacier Monitoring Service (WGMS) guidelines for the compilation of glacier inventory data from digital sources. Furthermore, each attribute table contains inventory number and glaciers names according to the previous Inventory of Italian Glacier (CGI-CNR, 1959, 1961a, 1961b, 1962), as well as the identification (ID) according to the hydrological coding suggested by the WGMS (1989). The data derived from the multitemporal analysis allow quantification of the progressive and dramatic mass loss experienced by Italian glaciers since the last three decades. The glaciers decline is underlined by diffused extinction of smaller bodies, by the fragmentation of wider glaciers and by remarkable reduction of their thickness also in the accumulation area. As a consequence of the ongoing rising temperature, almost 100% of the Italian glaciers are retreating; numerous alpine glaciers have repeatedly found entirely below the snowline, experienced relevant frontal retreat, contraction of the accumulation basins, thinning of glacial bodies and tongues. The strong imbalance that characterizes alpine glaciers, compared to current climatic conditions, underlines that if this situation will endure, further dramatic areal and volume reductions must be expected.

References

1. CGI-CNR – Comitato Glaciologico Italiano & Consiglio Nazionale delle Ricerche (1959) – Catasto dei Ghiacciai Italiani, Anno Geofisico Internazionale 1957-1958. Elenco generale e bibliografia dei ghiacciai italiani. Comitato Glaciologico Italiano, Torino, vol. 1, 172 pp. 2. CGI-CNR – Comitato Glaciologico Italiano & Consiglio Nazionale delle Ricerche (1961a) – Catasto dei Ghiacciai Italiani, Anno Geofisico Internazionale 1957-1958. Ghiacciai del Piemonte. Comitato Glaciologico Italiano, Torino, vol. 2, 324 pp. 3. CGI-CNR – Comitato Glaciologico Italiano & Consiglio Nazionale delle Ricerche (1961b) – Catasto dei Ghiacciai Italiani, Anno Geofisico Internazionale 1957-1958. Ghiacciai della Lombardia edell’Ortles-Cevedale. Comitato Glaciologico Italiano, Torino, vol. 3, 389 pp. 4. CGI-CNR – Comitato Glaciologico Italiano & Consiglio Nazionale delle Ricerche (1962) – Catasto dei Ghiacciai Italiani, Anno Geofisico Internazionale 1957-1958. Ghiacciai delle Tre Venezie (escluso Ortles-Cevedale) e dell’Appennino. Comitato Glaciologico Italiano, Torino, vol. 4, 309 pp. 5. Paul F., Barry R.G., Cogley J.G., Frey H., Haeberli W., Ohmura A., Ommanney C.S.L., Raup B., Rivera A. & Zemp M. (2009) – Recommendations for the compilation of glacier inventory data from digital sources. Annals of Glaciology, 50 (53), 119-126. 6. Salvatore M.C., Zanoner T., Baroni C., Carton A., Banchieri F.A., Viani C., Giardino M., Perotti L. (2015)- The state of Italian glaciers: A snapshot of the 2006-2007 hydrological period. Geografia Fisica e Dinamica Quaternaria, 38(2), 175-198. Doi: 10.4461/GFDQ.2015.38.16

SISC Sixth Annual Conference - Book of Abstract 66 Climate Change in the Italian Mountains and the Mediterranean Region

7. WGMS – World Glacier Monitoring Service (2015) – Global Glacier Change Bulletin No. 1 (2012 – 2013). In: Zemp M., Gärtner-Roer I., Nussbaumer S.U., Hüsler F., Machguth H., Mölg N., Paul F. & Hoelzle M. (Eds.) ICSU (WDS) / IUGG (IACS) / UNEP / UNESCO / WMO, World Glacier Monitoring Service, Zurich, Switzerland, 136 pp. doi:10.5904/wgms-fog-2015-11.

SISC Sixth Annual Conference - Book of Abstract 67 Climate Change in the Italian Mountains and the Mediterranean Region

Past climate variability over the last millennia in the RAL O Mediterranean area: a contribution of NextData project

F. Lirer1, S. Bonomo1,2, A. Cascella3, L. Ferraro1, F. Florindo4, D.D. Insinga1, C. Lurcock4, G. Margaritelli1, N. Pelosi1, P. Petrosino5, M. Vallefuoco1

1Istituto per l’Ambiente Marino Costiero (IAMC) – Consiglio Nazionale delle Ricerche, Calata Porta di Massa, Interno Porto di Napoli, 80133, Napoli, Italia; 2Istituto di Biomedicina ed Immunologia Molecolare “Alberto Monroy” (IBIM), Consiglio Nazionale delle Ricerche, Via Ugo La Malfa 153, 90146 Palermo, Italia; 3Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Via della Faggiola 32, 52126 Pisa, Italia; 4Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Via di Vigna Murata 605, 00143 Roma, Italia; 5DiSTAR - Dipartimento di Scienze della Terra, dell’Ambiente e delle Risorse – Università degli Studi di Napoli “Federico II”. Largo S. Marcellino 10, 80138, Napoli, Italia

Past climate variability during the last millennia has been investigated as part of NextData project in different sectors of the Mediterranean area (Minorca Basin, Tyrrhenian Sea, Sicily Channel, Taranto Gulf and south Adriatic Sea). We analysed planktonic foraminifera, calcareous nannofossils, oxygen isotopes and Mg/Ca ratio in several marine sedimentary cores to provide different information about past climate oscillations and their impact on environment and society. Results of Sea Surface Temperature (SST) reconstruction by measuring Mg/Ca ratios on the planktonic foraminifer Globigerinoides ruber indicate a distinct warm phase [1] with a ca. 2°C positive anomaly between 100 BCE and 400 CE (Roman Period). This warm phase might have favoured the spread of Roman culture in the Mediterranean basin. At ca. 600 CE (Dark Age) an important cooling phase is recorded, which age corresponds to the Late Antique Little Ice Age (LALIA) climate event. This cooling fits with the onset and establishment of the Justinian plague and with large-scale human migrations in Europe. Upwards, the δ18O G. ruber records and SST anomaly document a progressive cooling trend that culminates during the Little Ice Age (LIA). This cooling trend results in agreement with the northern Europe climate signal deduced from tree - rings [2]. After the LALIA event, the SST Mg/Ca G. ruber reconstruction documents the onset, at ca. 1180 CE, of the well-known Medieval Warm Period with a positive anomaly of ca. 1.5 2°C. The cooling associated with the Little Ice Age event occurs between 1320 CE and ca. 1850 CE with an anomaly of ca. 2°C vs negative values. During the LIA climate period, the high-resolution δ18O G.ruber data allowed us to document four climatic oscillations related to minima in solar activity: the Wolf, Spörer, Maunder and Dalton cold events. In addition, the onset of the Maunder is characterized by a strong increase in abundance of the planktonic foraminifer Globorotalia truncatulinoides, suggesting the presence of a deep

SISC Sixth Annual Conference - Book of Abstract 68 Climate Change in the Italian Mountains and the Mediterranean Region

mixed layer during winter. This oceanographic feature can be induced by an increase in wind intensity probably linked to atmospheric blocking events [3]. This feature is well documented in the Minorca basin, Tyrrhenian Sea and western Sicily Channel. Following the LIA, oxygen isotope and SST reconstruction document a progressive warming trend with a positive anomaly of ca. 1°C, probably associated with the onset of the Modern Warm Period.

References

1. Cisneros, M., Cacho, I., Frigola, J., Canals, J.M., Masqué, P., Martrat, B., Casado, M., Grimalt, J.O., Pena, L.D., Margaritelli, G., Lirer, F., 2016. Sea surface temperature variability in the central-western Mediterranean Sea during the last 2700 years: a multi-proxy and multi-record approach. Clim. Past 12, 849–869. 2. Büntgen, U., Myglan, V.S., Ljungqvist, F.C., McCormick, M., Di Cosmo, N., Sigl, M., Jungclaus, J., Wagner, S., Krusic, P.J., Esper, J., Kaplan, J.O., de Vaan, M.A.C., Luterbacher, J., Wacker, L., Tegel, W., Kirdyanov, A.V., 2016. Cooling and societal change during the Late Antique Little Ice Age from 536 to around 660 AD. Nature Geoscience 3. Margaritelli, G., Vallefuoco, M., Di Rita, F., Capotondi, L., Bellucci, L.G., Insinga, D.D., Petrosino, P., Bonomo, S., Cacho, I., Cascella, A., Ferraro, L., Florindo, F., Lubritto, C., Lurcock, P.C., Magri, D., Pelosi, N., Rettori, R., Lirer, F., 2016. Marine response to climate changes during the last five millennia in the central Mediterranean Sea. Global and Planetary Change 142, 53–72

SISC Sixth Annual Conference - Book of Abstract 69 Climate Change in the Italian Mountains and the Mediterranean Region

Recent variability and trend in surface solar radiation over a OSTER

P wide elevation gradient area: the Piedmont region

V. Manara1, M. Bassi2, M. Brunetti1, B. Cagnazzi2, M. Maugeri1,3

1Institute of Atmospheric Sciences and Climate, ISAC-CNR, Bologna, Italy; 2Department of Forecasting Systems, Regional Agency for Environmental Protection of Piedmont, Turin, Italy; 3Department of Environmental Science and Policy, Università degli Studi di Milano, Milan, Italy

The fraction of solar radiation that reaches the Earth’s surface (Eg↓) is the primary energy source for the Earth’s climate system governing a large number of physical and chemical processes. Uncertainties in Eg↓ trends are mainly connected to the lack of a full knowledge of all the mechanisms that influence its variability. As far as ground-based observations are concerned, the main problem is connected to the low availability both of Eg↓ and aerosol/cloud long-term quality-checked data, the two variables with the highest influence on Eg↓ variability. In this context, a new Eg↓ database [1], composed of 74 daily series for the 1990-2016 period is set up for the Piedmont region, in the northwest part of Italy. The strength of this database is the high number of available series allowing studying local effects like differences in trends between low and high elevations. The resulting Piedmont mean series, obtained under all-sky conditions, show an increasing tendency over the whole considered period (about +2.5% per decade at annual scale) in agreement with the “brightening period” reported in literature. Considering the plain and the mountain mean series separately, the trends are stronger for low than for high elevations, with an estimated vertical gradient of the trend of about -0.03% per decade every 100m. Removing the cloud contribution by means of the CM SAF - COMET cloudiness satellite data [2], the trends result slightly lower than under all-sky conditions with the only exception of winter where the trend becomes positive and significant. This is in agreement with the significant reduction of air pollutant emissions and aerosol concentrations observed in Piedmont in the investigated period [3] suggesting a relevant influence of changes in the transparency of the atmosphere on Eg↓ trends. Moreover, the differences observed between all- and clear-sky conditions suggest that cloudiness variability contributed to slightly intensify the observed positive trend. Analysing separately the plain and mountain series under clear-sky conditions, winter is the season during which the differences are more pronounced, with a stronger increase for low than for high elevations in agreement with the hypothesis that the brightening observed in Piedmont in the investigated period is mainly caused by a reduction of pollutant emissions. In winter, in fact, the boundary layer is generally rather low inhibiting the transport of polluted air masses upwards

SISC Sixth Annual Conference - Book of Abstract 70 Climate Change in the Italian Mountains and the Mediterranean Region

from lower regions by thermal convention and confining air pollutants at low levels. In summer, differently, the higher boundary layer causes much more similar aerosol concentrations at low and high elevations.

References

1. Manara V., M. Bassi, M. Brunetti, B. Cagnazzi, M. Maugeri (2018), 1990-2016 surface solar radiation variability and trend over the Piedmont region (northwest Italy), doi:10.1007/s00704-018-2521-6, in press; 2. Stockli R., A. Duguay-Tetzlaff, J. Bojanowski, R. Hollmann, F. Petra, M. Werscheck (2017), CM SAF ClOud Fractional Cover dataset from METeosat First and Second Generation – Edition 1 (COMET Ed. 1), Satellite Application Facility on Climate Monitoring, doi:10.5676/EUM_SAF_CM/CFC_METEOSAT/V001, https://doi.org/10.5676/EUM_SAF_CM/CFC_METEOSAT/V001; 3. Deserti M., A. Di Giosa, F. Stel, A.M. Caricchia, M. Grosa, G. Lanzani, N. Bardizza, V. Poluzzi, I. Ricciardelli (2016), La qualità dell’aria in Italia negli anni, in Focus su Inquinamento Atmosferico nelle aree urbane ed effetti sulla salute, ISPRA, Stato dell’Ambiente 68/16, ISBN 978-88-448-0794-8.

SISC Sixth Annual Conference - Book of Abstract 71 Climate Change in the Italian Mountains and the Mediterranean Region

Remote sensing applications for analysing the temporal OSTER

P behaviour of periglacial and paraglacial processes

P. Allasia1, F. Ardizzone1, D. Giordan1, M. Cignetti1, M. Manunta2

1Istituto di Ricerca per la Protezione Idrogeologica - Consiglio Nazionale delle Ricerche, Italy; 2Istituto per il Rilevamento Elettromagnetico - Consiglio Nazionale delle Ricerche, Italy

Introduction

Perigliacial, paraglacial and proglacial processes and systems play an important role in high mountain landscapes evolution (Knight and Harrison 2009; Carrivick and Heckmann 2017). In alpine regions, the definition of ground surface displacements is a key issue for the identification of active geomorphological processes, and their evolution. The short-term analysis of surface movements is obtained through quantitative and semi-quantitative analyses of topographic data and high accuracy measurements obtained from different monitoring techniques (Giordan et al. 2013). In the last decades, several consolidated monitoring techniques were exploited for periglacial (Kääb et al. 2003) and glacial processes (Giordan et al. 2016). These tools allow to high temporal sampling generation of ground deformation time series. The employment of the DInSAR techniques allow generating ground velocity maps and long time series of ground deformation. The multi-temporal acquisition availability (ERS-1/2, ENVISAT, RADARSAT-1, Sentinel-1) ensures an extensive spatial and temporal coverage, able to provide information in different physiographic and geographic areas. A combination of diverse SAR images acquisition and an effective comparison of data was obtained to analyse active glaciers and rock glaciers at different spatial and temporal resolution, in order to better evaluate their behaviour and evolution in Aosta Valley region (north-western Italy).

The Italian Western Alps

The Aosta Valley region (AVr) is located in the north-western of Italy. Elevation ranges from 400 to over 4800 m a.s.l. Glacial and periglacial processing principally involve high alpine environments. The AVr glaciers represent one-third of the Italian glaciers. Generally, the alpine permafrost shows a fragmented distribution, with a typical creep deformation related to the permafrost. Rock glaciers (RGs) represent a common periglacial landform of the AVr. RGs are classified in: i) active, ii) inactive, and iii) relict. The active RGs are characterized by considerable ice content, subjected to seasonal reactivation during the late spring-early summer (creep ranges from several cm/year to several m/year). Inactive ones do not

SISC Sixth Annual Conference - Book of Abstract 72 Climate Change in the Italian Mountains and the Mediterranean Region

move, despite having an ice core. The relict RGs, abundant in AVr region, represent the 56% of the inventoried RGs. A less pronounced shape, often cover by vegetation, characterizes them. They do not move due to the lack of ice content.

DInSAR techniques application

In our study, the identification and characterization of high mountain processes, and in particular of rock glaciers, of the AVr, is performed using Remote Sensing techniques. In particular, mean velocity maps and ground deformation time series have been generated taking advantage of the G-POD service based on SAR images processing. The Envisat ASAR available data covered a period from June 2004 to October 2010 and have been processed by the P-SBAS technique (Casu et al. 2014), both in ascending and descending orbits. To obtain reliable results, we performed an informed choice of SAR images, based on the comparison with the available meteorological data (i.e. height of snow, rainfall picks). By this way, we tried to minimize the temporal decorrelation effects mainly related to the snow cover, preserving the largest number of SAR acquisitions. RESULTS The mean velocity maps and ground deformation time series show that the highest portion of the lateral valley are excluded to the coverage; these sectors corresponding to the glaciated areas, affected by decorrelation effect due to the large displacement of glaciers (Cignetti et al. 2016). We compared the mean velocity maps and ground deformation time series to the RGs inventoried available in the regional web-site. The number of RGs covered by the SBAS targets are 123 (on 937 in total) for ascending orbit, and 65 for descending orbit. In the case of RGs, we analyzed all the active, inactive and relict forms. Generally, the mean velocity maps analysis highlights good agreement with the state of activities of the inventoried RGs. Specifically, the time series provide the analyze eventual RGs activation and/or seasonal deformations over the observed.

Data validation

In order to validate the obtained results, we compare the SBAS targets with the Permanent Scatterers availavle on the “Portale Cartografico Nazionale”. The PSs have been processes by the TRE Europa by the PSInSAR techniques as part of a National Project (http://www.pcn.minambiente.it/mattm/progetto- piano-straordinario-di-telerilevamento/). Firstly, we analysed a stable area with high coherent targets. Then we compared a numer of targets presenting ground deformation in correspondance of RG. A good agreement between the selected SBAS targets and PSs surface deformation rates have been observed, and a comparable distribution con be observed.

Conclusion

SISC Sixth Annual Conference - Book of Abstract 73 Climate Change in the Italian Mountains and the Mediterranean Region

This work presents the use of DInSAR processing for high mountain gravitational processes monitoring, using free ENVISAT ASAR images. The proposed methodology takes advantage of the ESA G-POD service. This approach could be implemented with Sentinel-1 costellation. The high-revisit time of Sentinel-1 can be useful also for the characterization of kinematic behavior of paralgacial and periglacial processes that tipically present a seasonal trend.

References

1. Knight J, Harrison S (2009) Periglacial and paraglacial processes and environments. Geological Society of London 2. Carrivick JL, Heckmann T (2017) Short-term geomorphological evolution of proglacial systems. Geomorphology 287:3–28. doi: 10.1016/j.geomorph.2017.01.037 3. Giordan D, Allasia P, Manconi A, et al (2013) Morphological and kinematic evolution of a large earthflow: The Montaguto landslide, southern Italy. Geomorphology 187:61–79. doi: 10.1016/j.geomorph.2012.12.035 4. Kääb A, Kaufmann V, Ladstädter R, Eiken T (2003) Rock glacier dynamics: implications from high-resolution measurements of surface velocity fields. In: Eighth International Conference on Permafrost. Balkema, pp 501–506 5. Giordan D, Allasia P, Dematteis N, et al (2016) A Low-Cost Optical Remote Sensing Application for Glacier Deformation Monitoring in an Alpine Environment. Sensors 16:1750. doi: 10.3390/s16101750 6. Casu F, Elefante S, Imperatore P, et al (2014) SBAS-DInSAR Parallel Processing for Deformation Time-Series Computation. IEEE J Sel Top Appl Earth Obs Remote Sens Early Access Online: doi: 10.1109/JSTARS.2014.2322671 7. Cignetti M, Manconi A, Manunta M, et al (2016) Taking Advantage of the ESA G-POD Service to Study Ground Deformation Processes in High Mountain Areas: A Valle d’Aosta Case Study, Northern Italy. Remote Sens 8:852. doi: 10.3390/rs8100852

SISC Sixth Annual Conference - Book of Abstract 74 Climate Change in the Italian Mountains and the Mediterranean Region

Sensitivity of snow models to the accuracy of the

RAL meteorological forcing in mountain environment: the O NextSNOW experiment

S. Terzago1, P. Pogliotti2, E. Cremonese2, U. Morra di Cella2, S. Gabellani3, G. Piazzi3, D. Dolia3, C. Cassardo4, V. Andreoli4, J. von Hardenberg1, E. Palazzi1, A. Provenzale5

1ISAC-Institute of Atmospheric Sciences and Climate, CNR, Torino, Italy; 2Regional Agency for Environmental Protection of Valle d’Aosta, Aosta, Italy; 3CIMA Research Foundation, International Centre on Environmental Monitoring, Savona, Italy; 4Department of Physics, University of Torino, Italy; 5IGG- Institute of Geosciences and Earth Resources, CNR, Pisa, Italy

Snow cover in high-altitude environments plays a key-role in terms of modification of the energy and water budgets, and the effects are evident both locally and at regional scales. As an example, changes in the Alpine snowpack have influences on the seasonality and amount of the river runoff, and thus on the availability of meltwater in downstream areas during the dry season [1]. Snow cover also affects mountain ecosystems, for example controlling the onset of vegetation growth and the timing of availability of high‐quality forage, which is essential for the survival of newborns of selected herbivore species [2,3].

Modelling results as well as observations from many regions of the world showed a snow decline especially in spring and at locations where air temperatures are close to the freezing point [4,5]. A shortening of the snow cover duration in spring and a reduction in spring snow depth were found also in six high-elevation sites in the European Alps of Switzerland, Austria, and Germany [6]. However, the available information on the past variability of snow resources in mountain areas is far from exhaustive, mainly owing to the paucity of long-term snow observations, typically sparse and biased toward lower elevation.

The lack of observations can be partially overcome with snow model simulations. Snow models are a powerful method to reconstruct the past variability of snowpack characteristics, using meteorological forcing from in-situ stations, or interpolation of surface station data, or reanalyses. Snow models can also be used to estimate future snow changes. In this case snow schemes can be either nested into global or regional climate models or used off-line and driven by projected meteorological time series provided by climate models.

SISC Sixth Annual Conference - Book of Abstract 75 Climate Change in the Italian Mountains and the Mediterranean Region

Currently available snow models are characterized by different degrees of complexity. Multi-layer, physically-based snow models are typically used to reconstruct the vertical structure of the snowpack with a high level of detail and high accuracy, while empirical snow models are employed when a coarse estimate of snow depth is sufficient. Among the major challenges for cryospheric modeling research are:

- the quantification of the snow model complexity needed to achieve accurate estimates of the snow depth and mass in the different modeling frameworks [7].

- the assessment of how the accuracy of the meteorological variables used to force snow models affects the quality of the snow simulations. This aspect is crucial in high mountain environment, owing to the high spatial variability of meteorological parameters in complex topography.

We address these two research questions devising a modelling experiment which employs several physical and empirical snow models with different degrees of complexity, namely SNOWPACK [8], HTESSEL [9], UTOPIA [10], GeoTOP [11], SMASH [12], S3M [13], AMUNDSEN [14].

We analyze the skills of the different models in reproducing the snowpack temporal evolution during five snow seasons, from 2012 to 2017, in 1D simulations at the experimental site in Torgnon, 2160 m a.s.l. in the Western Italian Alps [15]. In particular, the selected site is equipped with an OTT-Pluvio2 rain gauge which ensures more accurate estimates of winter solid precipitation with respect to standard devices.

The model performances are compared in different cases: i) the “ideal” case, when high-frequency and accurate meteorological in-situ station data are available, ii) the case when data are provided by gridded data sets derived by spatial and temporal interpolation of nearest surface station measurements, and iii) the case when forcing is provided by global reanalyses, such as ERA-Interim and the latest ECMWF product ERA5, at spatial resolutions of 80 and 30 km, respectively.

The study provides information on how sensitive the snow models are to the accuracy of forcing data, exploring the feasibility of driving these models with coarser spatial and temporal resolution data sets, including interpolation of surface station measurements and reanalyses, typically the only data available in remote mountain areas. Guidelines on the trade-offs between model complexity and model performances are provided, with the perspective of employing the best performing models to simulate past and future condition of mountain snowpack at fine spatial scales.

References

SISC Sixth Annual Conference - Book of Abstract 76 Climate Change in the Italian Mountains and the Mediterranean Region

1. Beniston, M. (2012). Impacts of climatic change on water and associated economic activities in the Swiss Alps. Journal of Hydrology, 412, 291-296. 2. Mignatti, A., Casagrandi, R., Provenzale, A., von Hardenberg, A., & Gatto, M. (2012). Sex-and age-structured models for Alpine ibex Capra ibex ibex population dynamics. Wildlife Biology, 18(3), 318-332. 3. Pettorelli, N., Pelletier, F., Hardenberg, A. V., Festa-Bianchet, M., & Côté, S. D. (2007). Early onset of vegetation growth vs. rapid green‐up: Impacts on juvenile mountain ungulates. Ecology, 88(2), 381-390. 4. IPCC (2013). The physical science basis. Contribution of Working GroupI to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. United Nations: Geneva. 5. Brown, R. D., & Mote, P. W. (2009). The response of Northern Hemisphere snow cover to a changing climate. Journal of Climate, 22(8), 2124-2145. 6. Marty, C., & Meister, R. (2012). Long-term snow and weather observations at Weissfluhjoch and its relation to other high-altitude observatories in the Alps. Theoretical and Applied Climatology, 110(4), 573-583. 7. Beniston, M., Farinotti, D., Stoffel, M., Andreassen, L. M., Coppola, E., Eckert, N., ... & Huwald, H. (2018). The European mountain cryosphere: a review of its current state, trends, and future challenges. The Cryosphere, 12(2), 759. 8. Bartelt, P., & Lehning, M. (2002). A physical SNOWPACK model for the Swiss avalanche warning: Part I: numerical model. Cold Regions Science and Technology, 35(3), 123-145. 9. Balsamo, G., Pappenberger, F., Dutra, E., Viterbo, P., & Van den Hurk, B. J. J. M. (2011). A revised land hydrology in the ECMWF model: a step towards daily water flux prediction in a fully‐closed water cycle. Hydrological Processes, 25(7), 1046-1054. 10. Cassardo, C. (2015). UTOPIA: The Manual of Version 2015, DOI:10.13140/RG.2.2.29664.38404 Available at https://www.researchgate.net/publication/323200198_UTOPIA_The_Manual_of_Version_2015 11. Endrizzi, S., Dall'Amico, M., Gruber, S., & Rigon, R. (2014). GEOtop 2.0: simulating the combined energy and water balance at and below the land surface accounting for soil freezing, snow cover and terrain effects. Geoscientific Model Development, 2014(7), 2831-2857. 12. Piazzi, G., Thirel, G., Campo, L., & Gabellani, S. A Particle Filter scheme for multivariate data assimilation into a point- scale snowpack model in Alpine environment. 13. Boni, G., Castelli, F., Gabellani, S., Machiavello, G., & Rudari, R. (2010, July). Assimilation of MODIS snow cover and real time snow depth point data in a snow dynamic model. In Geoscience and Remote Sensing Symposium (IGARSS), 2010 IEEE International (pp. 1788-1791). IEEE. 14. Pellicciotti, F., Brock, B., Strasser, U., Burlando, P., Funk, M., & Corripio, J. (2005). An enhanced temperature-index glacier melt model including the shortwave radiation balance: development and testing for Haut Glacier d’Arolla, Switzerland. Journal of Glaciology, 51(175), 573-587.

SISC Sixth Annual Conference - Book of Abstract 77 Climate Change in the Italian Mountains and the Mediterranean Region

Temperature anomalies and glacier retreat on the Italian OSTER

P Eastern Alps

S. Donnici1, R. Serandrei-Barbero2, S. Zecchetto3

1CNR - National Research Council of Italy, ISMAR - Marine Sciences Institute in Venice, Venice, Italy; 2Formerly at ISMAR, Venice and Comitato Glaciologico Italiano, Torino, Italy; 3CNR - National Research Council of Italy, ISAC Institute of Atmospheric Sciences and Climate, Padova, Italy

Since the last century the worldwide glaciers are withdrawing and the future existence of those located in the southern side of the Alps is threatened, as they are more exposed to the temperature increases because of their geographical position and small dimensions. On the Italian Alps, there are currently 903 glaciers with a total surface of 369.9 km2 [1]. Despite their small size (more than 90% is < 2 km2), they characterize the land use and the planning of the water resource. Consequently, the modeling of the relationship between the meteorological forcing and the glacier morphology is of great interest in the evaluation of available water resources in the medium and long term. A linear model computing the air temperature anomalies from the glacier snout fluctuations using the concept of climate sensitivity, i.e. the decrease in length per degree temperature increase [2,3], has been applied to the small glaciers of the Italian Western Tauri Alps (Eastern Alps) characterized by relevant time variations of their morphology, length and slope. As the model was developed over ice caps or glaciers worldwide, the climate sensitivity and glacier response time variables have been re-defined, to make it suitable to our small size southern glaciers [4]. The time dependence of both the climate sensitivity and response time is due to changes of the glacier geometry. In this area, we selected five glaciers with the longest time series of field data. Quaira Bianca, Neves Orientale, Valle del Vento, Rosso Destro and Lana glaciers, pertaining to the same climatic area and with dimensions less than 2 km2, were taken into account despite the lack of data during the second world war. The snout positions of these glaciers from 1929 to 2015 have been reconstructed from in situ measurements, from the logbooks of the ground campaigns and from WGMS data [5]. For reconstructing the snout positions it was necessary to verify and integrate the data with observations from the original source [6,7] to connect the in situ measurements carried out in different periods by different observers. The temporal variations of the glacier’s length and slope, as well as of the annual total precipitation over the accumulation period (October to May) have been included in the model to evaluate their importance in the temperature

SISC Sixth Annual Conference - Book of Abstract 78 Climate Change in the Italian Mountains and the Mediterranean Region

fluctuations reconstruction. The precipitation data used in the model and the air temperature to compare the model results have been recorded at the Bressanone station, about 60 km away from the glaciers, and downloaded from the HISTorical instrumental climatology surface time series of the greater ALPine region (HISTALP) web site (http://www.zamg.ac.at/histalp/). The mean annual temperatures, obtained averaging the data over the hydrological (October to September) year, show a total increase of about 1.8°C from 1929 to 2015. As a first step, the model reconstructs the temperature variations: the large- scale variations of the modeled temperature anomalies Tmod are very close to those obtained from the observed temperatures Thy, and, in particular, evidence the start of the increasing trend in the 80s of the last century. The observed and the modeled temperature anomalies over the considered time interval indicate similar trends and similar temperature increase, between 1.4°C and 1.8°C, for the considered glaciers, in good agreement with the observed values of 1.8°C. The second step of the study has been to verify the reliability of the model for the other glaciers of the Italian Western Tauri monitored with snout fluctuation measurements starting from the early 80s (WGMS, 2015). They are Gran Pilastro, Eastern-central Ries, Western Ries and Collalto glaciers. The temperature anomalies obtained through the frontal variations of all the nine glaciers highlight the major increase in temperature occurred since 2000. The model shows reasonable results for all the glaciers tested. It reconstructs the temperature anomalies through the length variations induced by the snout fluctuations on all the small glaciers considered. The next step will be to invert the model to obtain the length variations using the mean air temperature from the instrumental data series, with the aim of investigating also the Alps glacier's future behaviour under the global warming scenario in the 21st century. Acknowledgements World Glacier Monitoring Service (www.wgms.ch) is acknowledged for providing frontal variation data. The in situ measurements from 1982 to 2015 were supported by the Comitato Glaciologico Italiano. The meteorological data used in this work have been downloaded from the Historical Instrumental Climatological Surface Time Series Of The Greater Alpine Region (HISTALP) web site http://www.zamg.ac.at/histalp. This work has been partially supported by the Italian project of Interest NextData of the Italian Ministry for Education, University and Research, WP 1.6 “Risorse criosferiche montane”.

References

1. Smiraglia C., Diolaiuti G.(eds), 2015. The new Italian glacier inventory. Bergamo Pubbl., Bergamo, 399 pp. 2. Oerlemans J., 2005. Extracting a climate signal from 169 glacier records. Science 308(675), DOI 10.1126/science.1107046

SISC Sixth Annual Conference - Book of Abstract 79 Climate Change in the Italian Mountains and the Mediterranean Region

3. Leclercq P.W., Oerlemans J., 2012. Global and hemispheric temperature reconstruction from glacier length fluctuations. Climate Dynamics 38:1065–1079, DOI 10.1007/s00382-011-1145-7 4. Zecchetto S., Serandrei-Barbero R., Donnici S., 2017. Temperature reconstruction from the length fluctuations of small glaciers in the Eastern Alps (Northeastern Italy). Climate Dynamics, DOI 10.1007/s00382-016-3347-5 5. WGMS (World Glacier Monitoring Service), 2015. Global Glacier Change Bulletin No. 1 (2012-2013). Zemp, M., Gärtner-Roer, I., Nussbaumer, S. U., Hüsler, F., Machguth, H., Mölg, N., Paul, F., and Hoelzle, M. (eds.), ICSU(WDS)/IUGG(IACS)/UNEP/UNESCO/ WMO, World Glacier Monitoring Service, Zurich, Switzerland, 230 pp., publication based on database version: doi:10.5904/wgms-fog-2015-11. 6. Comitato Glaciologico Italiano, 1932-1977. Relazioni delle campagna glaciologiche 1931-1976. Bollettino del Comitato Glaciologico Italiano 12-25. 7. Comitato Glaciologico Italiano, 1978-2016. Relazioni delle campagna glaciologiche 1980-2015. Geografia Fisica Dinamica Quaternaria 1-39.

SISC Sixth Annual Conference - Book of Abstract 80 Climate Change in the Italian Mountains and the Mediterranean Region

RAL The Archive of datasets of the NextData project O

E. Trumpy1, M. De Amicis2, L. Ferraro3, E. Palazzi4, A. Provenzale1

1Institute of Geosciences and Earth Resources (CNR); 2University of Milan 'Bicocca'; 3Institute for coastal marine environment (CNR); 4Institute of atmospheric sciences and climate (CNR)

The main goal of the NextData project is to produce and provide quantitative information on the status and on past, present and future environmental changes in the Italian regions. The information, the data and the achieved results are made available through digital archive, in the spirit of open access and free data. The NextData archive provides a detail frame of the on-going and past weather and climate changes. It collects information on: a) the atmospheric composition, b) cryosphere, c) surface and underground water resources, d) ecosystems and biodiversity, e) mountains ice cores and f) sea sediments cores. The data collected in this archive allow the monitoring of present and the past as a base to foresee future scenarios. The archive makes available the data in the form of spatial datasets, table data or time series together with their associated metadata. Metadata are crucial to facilitate data organization, data discovery and even data providing. Metadata can be defined as the second level of data, that are useful to describe and classify other data or digital contents. Metadata become crucial when we face large data repositories, as is the case of the NextData archive. In this case the standard ISO19115/19139 was chosen to describe and register each dataset. This international standard defines the schema for describing geographic information and services and it provides information about: i) identification; ii) extent; iii) quality; iv) spatial; v) temporal schema; vi) spatial reference and vii) distribution of digital geographic data. The used standard guarantees the compliance for the metadata to the INSPIRE directive. Beside the metadata description the datasets produced or collected in the frame of the NextData Project are embedded in each metadata and available for all the interested user for download. The archive is built ensuring data interoperability with the most relevant global data collection systems, as those implemented by the Group on Earth Observation (GEO) Global Earth Observation System of Systems (GEOSS), Copernicus, Belmont forum. The application chosen to manage different resources (i.e., data/datasets/metadata) is Geonetwork [1]. Geonetwork is an open source catalogue specifically developed to manage spatially referenced resources. It catalogues local oriented information and cartographic products through descriptive metadata. Geonetwork enhances the

SISC Sixth Annual Conference - Book of Abstract 81 Climate Change in the Italian Mountains and the Mediterranean Region

spatial information exchange and share between organizations/department/project and their audience by using capacities and the power of internet. The Geonetwork application implements widely accepted standards to guarantee to discovering, viewing and downloading of resources. It exploits Open Geospatial Consortium (OGC) [2] standards such as dynamic internet map services (e.g., WMS, WFS, WCS), catalogue services (CSW) and makes available different standards to register metadata (e.g., ISO19115/19139[3], INSPIRE, FGDC, Dublin Core [4], …). The metadata editing, publication and distribution together with discovery operations performed by mean of defined search fields and filters are of the most important capabilities of Geonetwork. Moreover, it makes available an interactive web map to mash-up data available in the archive. Geonetwork guarantees also a fine grained access to the resources catalogued thanks to an effective system to bear dataset grants. To facilitate discovery operations, the resources collected were organized also by categories related to the different topics. The categories created were 8: 1) Atmosphere & Climate, 2) High Altitude Stations, 3) Instruments & Sensor, 4) Mountain ice cores, 5) Sea sediment cores, 6) DataGRALP: Alpine Glacers Database, 7) Ground Deformation in mountain, 8) Hydro-Meteo. The home page, figure 1, has a main menu on the top, a search field, the latest new and most popular resources. Figure 1 – NextData archive of datasets home page (Geonetwork application)

References

1. Geonetwork – Open source: https://geonetwork-opensource.org/ 2. Open Geospatial Consortium (OGC): http://www.opengeospatial.org/ 3. Metadata ISO 19115: https://www.iso.org/standard/26020.html 4. Dublin Core: http://dublincore.org/

SISC Sixth Annual Conference - Book of Abstract 82 Climate Change in the Italian Mountains and the Mediterranean Region

The atmospheric carbon dioxide series at the Alpine site of OSTER

P Plateau Rosa, Italy

S. Ferrarese1, F. Apadula2, V. Andreoli1, C. Cassardo1, S. Greco1, D. Heltai2, A. Lanza2, S. Trini Castelli3

1Department of Physics, University of Torino; 2RSE, Ricerca sul Sistema Energetico, Milano; 3ISAC, Institute of Atmospheric Sciences and Climate, National research Council, Torino

Carbon dioxide (CO2) concentration in atmosphere is a key quantity in studying and understanding the global greenhouse effect and the actual climate change. For this reason, CO2 concentration is constantly monitored at several localities around the world and particularly at remote sites. Mountain observatories are unique sites in Europe, suitable to measure background concentration of greenhouse gases. In Italy, at the station of Plateau Rosa (longitude: 7.71°E, latitude: 45.93°N), on the Italian Alps near the Mt. Cervino, at the altitude of 3480 m a.s.l., the CO2 concentration has been measured since 1989. The geographical position of the station (called PRS in the following) at high altitude and far from urbanized and industrialized zones, allows measuring the background concentration of greenhouse gases (carbon dioxide, methane, and ozone). The carbon dioxide concentration measurements started in 1989 with event data and since March 1993 the measurements have been performed continuously. The instrument is a non-dispersive infrared analyzer (ULTRAMAT 5E and 6E) collecting data at the frequency of 0.5 Hz. The data are referred to the WMO 2007 international mole scale fraction and were averaged every 30 minutes until 2007 and then every 60 minutes following the international standards. Recently a PICARRO analyzer has been installed at the PRS station. In this work we discuss the main features of the CO2 monthly concentration time series that has been obtained by applying a filtering scheme [1] to the measured data.

Firstly, the monthly background concentrations data are presented. They show the typical increasing trend with wide yearly fluctuations due to the vegetative cycle. In order to extract information on the cyclic behavior and the growth rate of the CO2 concentration series, a periodic function has been fitted to the monthly mean values. The equation is composed by a linear term and a sum of sinusoidal terms. The growth rate of the complete PRS CO2 series has been evaluated with different procedures filtering

SISC Sixth Annual Conference - Book of Abstract 83 Climate Change in the Italian Mountains and the Mediterranean Region

the monthly data; the results are comparable to each other and to the global rate. Then the yearly and monthly growth rates were computed and analyzed.

Secondly, the influence of signals related to the global scale in the PRS data was investigated. Atmospheric CO2 concentration shows inter-annual and inter-seasonal variability that has been found depending on large scale events like El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO), that is the most important coupled ocean-atmosphere phenomenon responsible of global climate variability on inter-annual time scales. To estimate the strength of ENSO events, the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) is usually considered. It is a measure of the large-scale fluctuations in air pressure occurring between the western and eastern tropical Pacific during El Niño episodes. SOI values are negative during El Niño events. In the period 1993-2017 very strong ENSO events occurred in 1997-1998 and 2015-2016, and other episodes characterized by a moderate intensities occurred in 1994-1995, 2002-2003, 2006, and 2009. In order to investigate if the CO2 PRS concentration is influenced by ENSO events, we compared the monthly growth rate in PRS CO2 concentration series with the SOI index. The results show that the two signals were correlated and the best agreement was obtained with a time lag of 5 months. Another useful index is the Multivariate ENSO Index (MEI) that is computed using six observed variables (sea- level pressure, zonal and meridional components of surface wind, sea surface temperature, surface air temperature, total cloudiness fraction of the sky) over the tropical Pacific. ENSO events occur during positive phases of MEI. The correlation between MEI and the PRS growth rate shows the maximum agreement with a time lag of 4 months.

Finally, the extreme CO2 concentration events were identified in the measured data and analyzed with the use of meteorological and dispersion models. A dual exceptional case occurred in February 2004 and was studied in Ferrarese et al. (2015) [2], applying the regional meteorological model WRF (the Weather Research and Forecast model) over a medium–high resolution grid to study the evolution of the meteorological fields and to identify the deterministic trajectories of the polluted air masses during the occurrence of CO2 peaks. This case study has been reexamined applying two Lagrangian particle models at two scales, in order to better reproduce the atmospheric motions, characterized by turbulent and stochastic processes. At the regional scale FLEXPART-WRF model was used [3], for the long-range MILORD model was applied [4-6]. WRF simulation was driven by ECMWF analyses every 6 hours, the main model setting included two domains (horizontal resolution 24 and 8 km), 28 vertical levels, time step of 30 seconds, Morrison microphysics. FLEXPART-WRF was set in backward mode using the WRF simulated wind fields. The results confirmed the localization of CO2 sources in the Po Valley and in the North Europe plains, and the use of a more complex tool like FLEXPART-WRF allowed to study with

SISC Sixth Annual Conference - Book of Abstract 84 Climate Change in the Italian Mountains and the Mediterranean Region

more detail the two events. MILORD simulations were currently run for the first time in the backward- mode and a sensitivity analysis is in process. Six-hours interval ECMWF analyses are directly used as input to the model and the particle’s displacement is calculated considering both the transport due to the mean wind and the stochastic contribution related to the atmospheric turbulence. Also at the long range, the provenience of the CO2 masses from the north of Europe and the Po valley is well captured. The results show that in highly complex sites like the Alps, the use of a high resolution regional meteorological model and Lagrangian particle dispersion model are essential to properly describe and study this kind of events.

Acknowledgments

This work has been partially financed by • the Research Fund for the Italian Electrical System under the Contract Agreement between RSE S.p.A. and the Ministry of Economic Development - General Directorate for the Electricity Market, Renewable Energy and Energy Efficiency, Nuclear Energy in compliance with the Decree of March 8, 2006; • NextDATA (MIUR), through a contribution of the CNR- ISAC, for measurements carried out during the year 2014 and from 2017 to now.

References

1. Apadula F., Heltai D., Lanza A., Fialdini L., Grasso F., Attività di monitoraggio dei gas serra effettuate dal laboratorio del Plateau Rosa nel 2008. Internal report CESI RICERCA (now RSE), Ricerca sul Sistema Energetico, 2009. 2. Ferrarese S., Apadula F., Bertiglia F., Cassardo C., Ferrero A., Fialdini L., Francone C., Heltai D., Lanza A., Longhetto A., Manfrin M., Richiardone R., Vannini C., Inspection of high-concentration CO2 events at the Plateau Rosa Alpine station, Atmospheric Pollution Research, 6, 415-427, 2015. 3. Briounde J., Arnold D., Stohl A., Cassiani M., Morton D., Seibert P., Angevine W., Evan S., Dingwell A., Fast J.D., Easter R.C., Pisso I., Burkhart J., Wotawa G., The Lagrangian particle dispersion model FLEXPART-WRF version 3.1, Geoscientific Model Development, 6, 1889-1904, 2013. 4. Anfossi D, Sacchetti D, Trini Castelli S (1995). Development and Sensitivity analysis of a Lagrangian Particle Model for Long Range Dispersion. Environmental Software 10:4, 263-287. 5. Trini Castelli S., 2012. MILORD - reload. Model for the Investigation of Long Range Dispersion. Internal Report ISAC-TO/02-2012, 10 September 2012, pages 28. 6. Boetti M., Trini Castelli S., Ferrero E., 2017. Reviving MILORD long-range model for simulating the dispersion of the release during Fukushima nuclear power plant accident. Chapter 62 in Air Pollution Modeling and its Application XXV, C. Mensink and G. Kallos (eds.) Springer Proceedings in Complexity, Springer International Publishing Switzerland, 387-391.

SISC Sixth Annual Conference - Book of Abstract 85 Climate Change in the Italian Mountains and the Mediterranean Region

The foothill aquifer system of the Piedmont Alpine zone: RAL O geology, hydrogeology and groundwater chemistry

M. Menichini1, E. Brussolo2, B. Raco1, M. Doveri1, A. Irace3, G. Masetti1, A. Provenzale1

1National Research Council of Italy - Institute of Geosciences and Earth Resources, Via G. Moruzzi 1, Pisa, Italy; 2Research Center of the Società Metropolitana Acque Torino, viale Maestri del Lavoro, Torino, Italy; 3National Research Council of Italy - Institute of Geosciences and Earth Resources, Via Valperga Caluso 35, Torino, Italy

Many foothill zones in Italy contain aquifer systems of strategic interest for water supplying, especially for drinking purposes (Doveri et al., 2016). The hydrogeological features in these environments generally promote the infiltration of both local rainfall and stream water originating in mountain catchments. On the other hand, because of their linkage with mountain areas, these systems are characterized by significant sensitivity towards the meteo-climatic variations and changes. Hence, a high level of knowledge of the foothill aquifers should be reached for addressing the water management issues by real technical approaches and management actions.

This work focuses on the aquifer system extending in the foothill plain located in the Piedmont region (NW Italy), between the Western Alps and the Torino Hill (Piana et al. 2017). This area is of scientific interest, since it represents the hydrogeological “transition zone” between the Western Po Plain and the southern Piedmont Plain aquifer systems (Irace et al., 2010). Furthermore, the interest towards these aquifers is tied to the reliance on their groundwater resource for drinking water supply, which is performed by SMAT (Società Metropolitana Acque Torino). In close cooperation with SMAT, which also co-founded the project, and taking also into account previous studies (De Luca et al., 2014; De Luca and Osella, 2014) and datasets from monitoring activities institutionally performed by the Environmental Protection Agency of Piedmont Region (ARPA Piemonte), the study examined the geological, hydrogeological and hydraulic-hydrodynamic features of the aquifer, as well as the chemistry of groundwater. Furthermore, some preliminary isotopic analyses were performed. The aquifer recharge estimated through a hydrologic balance approach by Brussolo et al. (2018 – in this conference) was also taken into account.

SISC Sixth Annual Conference - Book of Abstract 86 Climate Change in the Italian Mountains and the Mediterranean Region

This comprehensive approach steered the definition of the aquifer system conceptual model, comprising the kind of rocks hosting groundwater and their hydraulic properties, the arrangement of groundwater flow, the seasonal evolution of groundwater quantity and the chemical quality of groundwater. Furthermore, the statistical analysis performed on datasets from monitoring stations highlighted some trends over decades.

The main results can be summarized as follows:

- the system consists of a multilayer that has a phreatic aquifer overlying a succession of impermeable and permeable layers, in which groundwater flow generally occurs in confined to semi- confined conditions;

- the phreatic aquifer has thicknesses between 30 and 80 m and it is hosted in gravel, sandy gravel and pebbles of fluvial and fluvioglacial origin (Pleistocene-Holocene deposits). The hydraulic conductivity ranges from 5 * 10-4 m/s to 5 * 10-3 m/s;

- the confined to semi-confined sub-system mainly develops within the Pliocene continental deposits, which consist of coarse-grained sands and gravels, alternating to peat-rich clayey and silty deposits. The average hydraulic conductivity of this system ranges from 4*10-5 to 4*10-4 m/s;

- the aquifer system is fed by infiltration of local rainfall, river seepage and transfers of groundwater that originate in upland zones. The outputs of groundwater is for exploitation by wells and for drainage operated by rivers, in the lower part of the plain. Generally, the groundwater flow of the phreatic aquifer is separated from that of the confined to semi-confined sub-system. Nevertheless, over wide zones the shallow aquifer and the uppermost permeable layers of the deeper system result in continuity (or separated by weak thicknesses of clayey deposits), thus making possible the mixing of groundwater between the two sub-systems. The main groundwater flow paths occur from northwest to southeast and from west to east;

- groundwater are mainly of the Ca(Mg)-HCO3 type with a relatively low salinity for both unconfined and confined aquifers. Nevertheless, the phreatic aquifer hosts groundwater with a relatively higher salinity and, in some zones, characterized by increasing of Cl and SO4 contents. Hence, a certain impact from anthropic activities seems to be possible. In this terms the confined to semi-confined sub- system appears effectively more protected, even though the higher salinity and Cl contents observed in a few deeper wells suggest the possibility of connection with the shallower aquifer.

SISC Sixth Annual Conference - Book of Abstract 87 Climate Change in the Italian Mountains and the Mediterranean Region

References

1. Brussolo E., Ferraris S., Gisolo D., Doveri M., Masetti G., Provenzale A. 2018. Yearly water balance of the Piedmont Alpine zone. SISC Sixth Annual Conference, 2018. 2. Doveri M., Menichini M., Scozzari A. 2016. Protection of groundwater resources: worldwide regulations, scientific approaches and case study. In: Scozzari A, Dotsika E (edited by): “Threats to the quality of groundwater resources: prevention and control" - The handbook of environmental chemistry, Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg 2016, 40,13- 30.

SISC Sixth Annual Conference - Book of Abstract 88 Climate Change in the Italian Mountains and the Mediterranean Region

The history of salinity anomalies in the Mediterranean Sea RAL O from 60 years reanalysis

N. Pinardi1,2,3, C. Fratianni2, S. Simoncelli2, V. Lyubartsev3, A. Grandi3

1University of Bologna, Dept. of Physics and Astronomy; 2INGV, Bologna; 3CMCC, Bologna

Long term, high resolution re-analyses of the Mediterranean Sea circulation and thermohaline structure are now available from NextData. The first is a 60 years re-analysis (1953-2012) done with atmospheric AMIP forcing and the second is 25 years re-analysis (1987-2012) done with ECMWF atmospheric forcing re-analysis. Both concur to have a representation of the longest time series of salinity anomalies in the Mediterranean Sea, the highest space-time reconstruction ever done for the whole basin.

The salinity anomalies of the Mediterranean Sea below several hundred meters of the past 60 years are examined in relationship with the Eastern Mediterranean Transient. Deep water salinity changes at the Gibraltar Strait and the correlation with deep water formation processes is elucidated.

SISC Sixth Annual Conference - Book of Abstract 89 Climate Change in the Italian Mountains and the Mediterranean Region

Tree-ring reconstructions of past climate at the regional scale:

RAL extending back in time summer temperature variability in the O Italian Alps and the central Mediterranean

G. Leonelli1, A. Coppola2, M.C. Salvatore2,3, C. Baroni2,3, M. Brunetti4, M. Maugeri4,5, M. Pelfini6, A. Provenzale3, V. Maggi1,3

1Università degli Studi di Milano–Bicocca — Dept. of Earth and Environmental Science; 2Università degli Studi di Pisa — Dept. of Earth Science; 3IGG-CNR, Institute of Geosciences and Earth Resources, National Research Council; 4ISAC-CNR, Institute of Atmospheric Sciences and Climate; 5Università degli Studi di Milano — Dept. of Environmental Science and Policy; 6Università degli Studi di Milano — Dept. of Earth Science. Tree rings are one of the main source of annually-resolved information on past climate in terrestrial environments, over the time span of centuries up to millennia, in the Holocene. With the aim of reconstructing past temperature variability in Italy and surrounding regions, we selected and prepared tree-ring chronologies from high-altitude sites of the Italian Alps (42 sites available, mean altitude 2080 m a.s.l.) and the Apennines (8 sites available, mean altitude 1680 m a.s.l.). The summer temperature reconstruction from the Alps is centred over the inner sector comprising the Adamello-Presanella, Ortles- Cevedale, Silvretta, Bernina, Ötztaler-Venoste Groups, and it is based on ring-width chronologies of European larch (Larix decidua Mill.), Swiss stone pine (Pinus cembra L.) and Norway spruce (Picea abies Karst.). The reconstruction is consistent with other reconstructions already available in the European Alps and well preserves the long-term temperature variability, up to mid 1500s [1]. The late summer temperature reconstruction from the Apennines comprises sites from the whole mountain arch and it is based on chronologies of latewood maximum density of European silver fir (Abies alba Mill.), Bosnian pine (Pinus leucodermis H.Christ) and Austrian pine (Pinus nigra J.F.Arnold). The reconstruction for the central Mediterranean extends back to early 1700s, follows well the variability of the instrumental record and of other tree-ring-based reconstructions in the region and underlines periods of climatic cooling (and also wetter conditions) in 1699, 1740, 1814, 1914 and 1938 [2]. Overall the two summer temperature reconstructions are representative of climate variability in a wider area surrounding Italy and allow a first assessment of past temperature variability over 4-5 centuries for the Italian Alps and 3 centuries for the central Mediterranean, with annual resolution. In order to improve the understanding of ongoing climate change impacts in these two critical regions (the Alps, providing waters to agriculture in the surrounding planes, and the Mediterranean, being recognized as a climate-change

SISC Sixth Annual Conference - Book of Abstract 90 Climate Change in the Italian Mountains and the Mediterranean Region

hotspot), climate reconstructions in these regions should focus on multi-proxy and multi-parameter approaches.

References

1. Leonelli G., Coppola A., Baroni C., Salvatore M.C., Maugeri M., Brunetti M., Pelfini M. (2016), Multispecies dendroclimatic reconstructions of summer temperature in the European Alps enhanced by trees highly sensitive to temperature. Climatic Change 137, 275–291, https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-016-1658-5. 2. Leonelli G., Coppola A., Salvatore M.C., Baroni C., Battipaglia G., Gentilesca T., Ripullone F., Borghetti M., Conte E., Tognetti R., Marchetti M., Lombardi F., Brunetti M., Maugeri M., Pelfini M., Cherubini P., Provenzale A., Maggi V. (2017), Climate signals in a multispecies tree-ring network from central and southern Italy and reconstruction of the late summer temperatures since the early 1700s. Climate of the Past 13, 1451–1471, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-13-1451-2017.

SISC Sixth Annual Conference - Book of Abstract 91 Climate Change in the Italian Mountains and the Mediterranean Region

Validation of UTOPIA snow parameterization over OSTER

P northwestern Alpine stations

V. Andreoli, C. Cassardo1, S. Ferrarese 2, S. Terzago2

1 Department of Physics and NatRisk Center, University of Torino “Alma Universitas Taurinorum”, Torino, Italy; 2 Institute of Atmospheric and Climate Sciences, CNR, Torino, Italy

Snow cover alters considerably the surface albedo, causing the reflection of about 60-90% of the incoming short-wave radiation; in addition, it modifies the soil and canopy surface temperature and the surface energy balance. Snow plays also a key-role in the hydrological budget, for example contributing to the surface runoff during the melting phase. Snowpack changes, related to climate warming and to changes in the spatial and temporal distribution of precipitation, can affect amount and seasonality of water supply originating from the snow runoff, and thus water availability. In the future the water availability can cause competition between different economic sectors such as the agriculture, the hydropower production and tourism. Changes in the precipitation/snowfall amount and distribution, the late snowpack accumulation and its earlier melting impact also on mountain ecosystems, typically inducing some species to migrate to higher elevations. Measurements of glacier areas and mass show that almost all glaciers worldwide are shrinking, and that snow cover size has significantly decreased, especially in the Northern Hemisphere. The estimation of the future snow changes rely on numerical climate models, which usually employ simple snow schemes for the representation of snow processes. Despite the fact that GCM (Global Climate Models) are still too coarse for adequate parameterizations of processes related to the snow, the growing resolutions of the RCM (Regional Climate Models) allow to represent – at least at the broadest scale - the terrain topography more accurately and thus could better reproduce snow life cycle in mountainous areas. In this context, it is important to ensure that the snow schemes used within climate models adequately reproduce the main snowpack processes. However, it is not easy to find suitable datasets for off-line snow model validation, because mountain areas are often remote, the stations are often automated and unmanned, and are not always equipped with all sensors able to supply the data required in input by those schemes and to validate their outputs. In addition, precipitation data often contain errors owing to the difficulties in measuring snowfall using traditional (heated) pluviometers, or also nivometers. A wide range of physical and empirical models has been developed to reproduce the temporal evolution of the snowpack characteristics, including snow

SISC Sixth Annual Conference - Book of Abstract 92 Climate Change in the Italian Mountains and the Mediterranean Region

accumulation, snow properties, melting and transformation processes. Particularly physical models can calculate the exchange processes between the surface and the atmosphere and they are based on the energy and hydrological balance equations at the Earth's surface. Most of those schemes are in the category of the land surface schemes, also known as SVATs (Soil-Vegetation-Atmosphere Transfer schemes), and incorporate snow parameterizations at various levels of complexity. Some of the authors have contributed to the development of an original scheme, named UTOPIA (University of TOrino model of land Process Interaction with Atmosphere). UTOPIA will be the land surface model used in this study, in the frame of the NextDATA/NextSNOW project. UTOPIA is equipped with some snowpack parameterizations, already tested in the first two years of the project. The stations selected for this study are located in the northwestern Italian Alps, and with more precision in the “Alpi Graie” sector, between Piemonte and Valle d'Aosta Italian regions. One of the stations is Torgnon, also selected by the NextDATA/NextSNOW project because this station, belonging to the Valle d'Aosta regional meteorological service (ARPA-VdA), has been potentiated with several instruments (including also some fast-response devices, such as sonic anemometers) in the atmospheric surface layer and in the soil, and has been regularly monitored by personnel of ARPA-VdA during the project. For this reason, this station has became the main station on which to perform validation experiments. For the validation, data of snow height, density, water equivalent, temperature albedo, soil temperature and moisture, heat fluxes, and other data, are available. The other three stations are located in Piemonte region and belong to the ARPA-Piemonte regional meteorological service. These stations have been selected because they were the only three stations for which all input data required by UTOPIA were available for a time period of at least five years. For the validation, data of snow height and temperature are available in these stations. During the symposium, the main results obtained by the validation will be presented and discussed. Also the results of some sensitivity tests will be presented. These results will allow to make some general conclusions about the quality of the data required for the validation of these models.

SISC Sixth Annual Conference - Book of Abstract 93 Climate Change in the Italian Mountains and the Mediterranean Region

Variability of orographic enhancement of precipitation in the OSTER

P Alpine region

A. Napoli1,2, A. Crespi2, F. Ragone1, M. Maugeri2, C. Pasquero1

1University of Milan, Bicocca, Italy; 2University of Milan, Italy

Climate change is not uniform across the various regions of the world: while surface air temperature has increased of about 1°C in the last century on average over the globe, warming hasn't happened everywhere at the same rate, and the Arctic amplification is a robust signal. Previous work has shown that in many cases mountains are warming more rapidly than the surrounding regions. The elevation dependent warming has been observed in many areas, such as the Rockies and the Tibetan Plateau: mountain regions could thus experience more serious changes in ecosystems, in cryospheric systems, in hydrological regimes, and in biodiversity earlier than the nearby lowlands. This aspect becomes particularly important in the light of the accelerating global warming recorded during the last decade. However, the Alpine region is peculiar in the sense that the largest warming over the last decades has been observed in the lowlands, and it has been attributed to the decline in aerosol concentration from anthropic emissions starting in the 1980s, which caused a significant brightening of the solar radiation in the Po Valley (Zeng et al. 2015, Tudoroiu et al. 2016, Manara et al. 2016). Significant changes are expected in the amount, frequency, and distribution of precipitation in the changing climate, with an important regional response: dry spell length and intensity, annual cumulated precipitation, and intense precipitation show different trends in different regions. No studies have investigated yet whether different elevations experience different precipitation changes. Orographic effects are important in determining the amount of precipitation at a given location, as the orographic lifting of air masses favors condensation and cloud formation, resulting in a distinctive increase of precipitation with altitude observed in many regions (e.g. Spreen, 1947; Peck and Brown, 1962; Frei and Schar, 1998; Blumer, 1994; Johnson and Hanson, 1995; Roe and Baker, 2006; Liu et al., 2011; Asaoka and Kominami, 2012). Orographic precipitation depends both on the characteristics of the topographic relief (slope gradient, exposition, and elevation), which can be considered independent on time on the human scale, and on environmental parameters such as atmospheric stability and cloud condensation nuclei distribution, which are affected by anthropic activities. Since high elevation precipitations are the freshwater supply for a large fraction

SISC Sixth Annual Conference - Book of Abstract 94 Climate Change in the Italian Mountains and the Mediterranean Region

of the population, it becomes particularly important to understand how orographic precipitation responds to climate change. In this study, we analyze the variability of annual precipitation as function of elevation in the Alpine region, using two rain gauge datasets. The first dataset is composed of 3002 homogenized time series of monthly precipitation from weather stations in the Greater Alpine Region (GAR), in the period from January 1961 to December 1990 (30 years). The second dataset is composed of 551 historical time series of monthly precipitation over the Lombardy region. The series have been subjected to a detailed quality control and homogenization procedure and have then been normalized. The annual precipitation time series averaged over the whole study region show a very large interannual variability that mask longer time variations, if existent. In fact, it is known that seasonal precipitation in the GAR is significantly affected by the phase of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), which shifts latitudinally the position of the storm track over Europe on interannual time scales. However, we expect that the NAO affects both the lowland and the higher elevation precipitation in similar ways. We thus define an index which measures the orographic precipitation normalized to the lowland precipitation for every year of study. This procedure eliminates a large part of the interannual variability, and it highlights longer terms changes in the amplitude of the orographic enhancement of precipitation. We find that the orographic enhancement of precipitation increases for about three decades from the 1950s to the 1980s, and then it decreases until today. In other words, the difference in annual cumulated precipitation between the high elevation stations and the low elevation stations, in the 1980s has been the largest over the last 70 years. We'll discuss this result in the context of changing aerosol concentrations depending on anthropogenic pollution. The seasonality of the signal will also be discussed and put in relation to the changes in the height of the atmospheric boundary layer across different seasons.

References

1. N. Pepin, R. Bradley, H. Diaz, M. Baraer, E. Caceres, N. Forsythe, H. Fowler, G. Greenwood, M. Hashmi, X. Liu, et al., \Elevation-dependent warming in mountain regions of the world," Nature Climate Change, vol. 5, no. 5, p. 424, 2015. 2. M. Tudoroiu, E. Eccel, B. Gioli, D. Gianelle, H. Schume, L. Genesio, and F. Miglietta, \Negative elevation-dependent warming trend in the eastern alps," Environmental Research Letters, vol. 11, no. 4, p. 044021, 2016. 3. N. Siler and G. Roe, \How will orographic precipitation respond to surface warming? an idealized thermodynamic perspective," Geophysical Research Letters, vol. 41, no. 7, pp. 2606-2613, 2014. 4. B. Pieri, J. von Hardenberg, A. Parodi, and A. Provenzale, \Sensitivity of precipitation statistics to resolution, microphysics, and convective parameterization: A case study with the high-resolution wrf climate model over europe," Journal of Hydrometeorology, vol. 16, no. 4, pp. 1857{1872, 2015.

SISC Sixth Annual Conference - Book of Abstract 95 Climate Change in the Italian Mountains and the Mediterranean Region

5. T. Grunewald, Y. Buhler, and M. Lehning, \Elevation dependency of mountain snow depth," The Cryosphere, vol. 8, no. 6, pp. 2381-2394, 2014. 6. M. Brunetti, M. Maugeri, F. Monti, and T. Nanni, \Temperature and precipitation variability in italy in the last two centuries from homogenised instrumental time series," International journal of climatology, vol. 26, no. 3, pp. 345- 381, 2006. 7. T. Burt and N. Howden, \North atlantic oscillation amplifies orographic precipitation and river flow in upland britain," Water Resources Research, vol. 49, no. 6, pp. 3504-3515, 2013. 8. Muhlbauer and U. Lohmann, \Aerosol-cloud interactions and the effects on orographic precipitation," in 12th AMS Conference on Cloud Physics, Madison, USA, pp. 10-14, Citeseer, 2006. 9. U. Lohmann and J. Feichter, \Global indirect aerosol effects: a review," Atmo- spheric Chemistry and Physics Discussions, vol. 4, no. 6, pp. 7561{7614, 2004. 10. Z. Zeng, A. Chen, P. Ciais, Y. Li, L. Z. Li, R. Vautard, L. Zhou, H. Yang, M. Huang, and S. Piao, \Regional air pollution brightening reverses the greenhouse gases induced warming-elevation relationship," Geophysical Research Letters, vol. 42, no. 11, pp. 4563-4572, 2015. 11. S. Blenkinsop, S. Chan, E. Kendon, N. Roberts, and H. Fowler, \Temperature influences on intense uk hourly precipitation and dependency on large-scale circulation," Environmental Research Letters, vol. 10, no. 5, p. 054021, 2015. 12. S. Emori and S. Brown, \Dynamic and thermodynamic changes in mean and extreme precipitation under changed climate," Geophysical Research Letters, vol. 32, no. 17, 2005. 13. Crespi, M. Brunetti, G. Lentini, and M. Maugeri, \1961{1990 high-resolution monthly precipitation climatologies for italy," International Journal of Climatology, vol. 38, no. 2, pp. 878-895, 2018. 14. Auer, R. Bohm, A. Jurkovic, W. Lipa, A. Orlik, R. Potzmann, W. Schoner, M. Ungersbock, C. Matulla, K. Briffa, et al., \Histalp|historical instrumental climatological surface time series of the greater alpine region," International journal of climatology, vol. 27, no. 1, pp. 17-46, 2007.

SISC Sixth Annual Conference - Book of Abstract 96 Climate Change in the Italian Mountains and the Mediterranean Region

Water resources in mountain aquifers: an example of characterization, data analysis and trend of groundwater OSTER

P quantity and quality for the Mt. Amiata aquifer system (Central Apennines, Italy)

M. Doveri1, B. Raco1, B. Nisi1, M. Menichini1, M. Lelli1

1Institute of Geosciences and Earth Resources-National Research Council of Italy

Groundwater represents, globally, the main resource in term of water supply. Worldwide, more than 2 billion people depend on groundwater for their daily water use [1]. For human consumption the groundwater exploitation provides water for 70% of the population on average in Europe [2], sometimes reaching 80% of the total water supplied for drinking, as in Italy. Moreover, the exploitation of groundwater bodies will likely increase both for the key role played by aquifers for mitigating the climate change/variability and for the significant increasing of the global water demand.

Despite this, and unlike surface waters, groundwater bodies have not been widely studied, and there is a general paucity of information, especially in relation to climate change. Although groundwater systems are more resilient to climate change than surface waters, they are however affected both directly and indirectly [3]. In these terms the mountain aquifers can be more sensitive given the high sensitivity of mountains to climate change. Hence, and in order to address the lack of knowledge on groundwater systems, with the Nextdata project (Task 1 of the WP 1.2) we dealt with groundwater quantity and quality issues, referring to Italian aquifers that develop in Apennines and Alpine zones.

This work focus on the aquifer system hosted in the volcanic rocks of the Mt. Amiata (1738 m a.s.l.), in Central Apennines. Data of hydrogeology ([4] and references therein) and hydro-geochemistry ([5] and references therein) of the Mt. Amiata region were compared for defining the conceptual model of the aquifer. From a water quality point of view, local geochemical background threshold limits were defined for more significant compounds and parameters. Monitoring data on rainfall and air temperature (data from the Hydric Service of the Tuscany Region authority-SIR) and on groundwater quantity and quality (data from: the water management society Acquedotto del Fiora SpA; and the environmental agency of Tuscany-ARPAT) were also analyzed for evaluating the presence of temporal trends through the non-parametric tests of Theis-Sen, with the comparison with Ordinary Last Square (OLS) regression.

SISC Sixth Annual Conference - Book of Abstract 97 Climate Change in the Italian Mountains and the Mediterranean Region

Main results are summarized as follows:

- the volcanics sequence represent the water yielding rocks characterized by values of hydraulic conductivity K in the range 5.0E-06 ÷ 4.6E-05 m/s. The aquifer hosted in these rocks is unconfined, as a whole, even if in the inner part of the volcanic edifice a main basal aquifer, in semi-confined conditions, and overlying local perched aquifers are recognizable. The basal substratum of the aquifer is mainly made up by clayey and shaly rocks;

- the recharge in the volcanics aquifer is of the order of 50-55E06 m3/y and, in first instance, such value is consistent with the total output at springs. Nevertheless, more accurate measurements should be performed for refining these balance evaluations. Most springs are at the contact between volcanics and the substratum of the volcano edifice. Major springs are characterized by flow rate of hundreds L/s. Groundwater flow mainly occurs southwards, given the slope of substratum in this direction;

- groundwater flowing in the Mt. Amiata aquifer are chiefly of the Ca-Na-K-HCO3 type, thus indicating that the chemistry of these waters is essentially affected by their interaction with the volcanics rocks. Only in the NE sector of the volcanic apparatus there are few water points characterized by acid-Ca-Na- K-SO4, which are likely generated through adsorption of H2S-bearing deep gases into a relatively shallow part of the aquifer;

- as suggested by water isotopes signature, groundwater hosted in the Mt. Amiata aquifer originate from direct infiltration of meteoric water and it is not affected by secondary isotopic fractionation processes. Hence, the enough wide range of isotopes values showed by the ensemble of springs is linkable to different average altitude and exposure (seaward, from where most meteoric perturbation arrives, or inland ward) of several recharge areas that feed the respective springs. The unsaturated thickness and the hydrodynamic conditions in the aquifer system produce water-infiltration effects on groundwater through pluriannual cycles of increase-decrease of piezometric levels and flow rates;

- one significant trend of groundwater discharge decreasing was registered at the most important spring of Mt. Amiata aquifer over the 1990-2010 period, whereas a recovery of flow rates was observed in the successive six-seven years. A qualitative relationship between this quantitative evolution with the evolution of effective rainfall was preliminary individuated, underlining as the discharge at major springs is mainly affected by an infiltration occurred over a period of about two years;

- the trend analysis on chemical data collected from 2002 to 2016 shows the presence of increasing of chloride in 6 of the 10 monitored springs;

SISC Sixth Annual Conference - Book of Abstract 98 Climate Change in the Italian Mountains and the Mediterranean Region

- simple univariate statistical tools (analysis of the frequency distribution, analysis of outlier values, partitioning) have been carried out to estimate geochemical background of some parameters, such as As (1 µg/L), Cl (9 mg/L) and SO4(4 mg/L).

References

1. Hiscock K.M. 2011. Groundwater in the 21st century – meeting the challenges. In: Anthony J, Jones A (eds) Sustaining groundwater resources: a critical element in the global water crisis, in International Year of Planet Earth, pp 207–225. 2. Martınez Navarrete C., Grima Olmedo J, Duran Valsero J.J., Gomez J.D., Luque Espinar J.A., de la Orden G.J.A. 2008. Groundwater protection in Mediterranean countries after the European water framework directive. Environ Geol 54:537–549. 3. Taylor R., Scanlon B., Doll P., Rodell M. et al. 2013. Ground water and climate change. Nature climate change, 3:322-329. 4. Doveri M., Menichini M. (2017) Aspetti idrogeologici delle vulcaniti nel Monte Amiata. In: Il Vulcano di Monte Amiata. a cura di Claudia Principe, Guido Lavorini e Luigina M. Vezzoli (eds.), pp. 255 - 265. ESA - Edizioni Scientifiche ed Artistiche, 2017 - Napoli, Italia. 5. Lelli M. (2017) Caratterizzazione chimica delle acque circolanti all’interno del Complesso Vulcanico del Monte Amiata. In “Il vulcano di Monte Amiata”, Eds. C. Principe, G. Lavorini, L. Vezzoli, pp. 267-280.

SISC Sixth Annual Conference - Book of Abstract 99 Climate Change in the Italian Mountains and the Mediterranean Region

WDB-Paleo: a paleo-climatic proxies database of marine OSTER

P sediment cores from the Mediterranean Sea

L. Ferraro1, I. Alberico1, F. Lirer1, E. Anzalone1, S. Bonomo1,2, A. Cascella3, F. Florindo4, D.D. Insinga1, P.C. Lurcock4, P. Petrosino5, M. Vallefuoco1

1Istituto per l’Ambiente Marino Costiero - CNR, Napoli, Italy; 2Istituto di Biomedicina ed Immunologia Molecolare “Alberto Monroy” (IBIM), Palermo, Italy; 3Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Pisa, Italy; 4Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Roma, Italy; 5Dipartimento di Scienze della Terra, dell’Ambiente e delle Risorse - Università degli Studi di Napoli Federico II, Napoli, Italy

The analysis of various paleo-climate proxies such as pollen, algae, charcoal, and planktic and benthic organisms, that are preserved in the so called peloclimate archives (e.g., sediments, ice cores, tree rings, speleothems) provide quantitative information on past regional climate, and allow high resolution climatic reconstructions for the last millennia. This knowledge is useful to quantify the mode and the extent of future changes of the climate at regional and global scale. In this frame, the Sub-project 2 of the NextData Project was focused on the implementation of a system of repositories storing environmental and climate data from mountain and marine areas of the Mediterranean basin. For the marine zones, a database of sediment cores, named WDB-Paleo, was implemented. It records: a) the presence/absence of paleoclimatic proxies, the data of δ18O, AMS14C (Accelerator Mass Spectrometry), and the occurrence of tephra layers as reported in about 200 scientific papers dealing with all the cores realized in the Mediterranean Sea so far; b) quantitative analysis of planktonic and benthonic foraminifera, pollen, calcareous nannoplankton, magnetic susceptibility, stable isotopes, radionuclides and tephra from several cores recovered during the NextData project. WDB-Paleo takes advantage of a link with a Geographical Information System (GIS) to visualize the data distribution and elaborate thematic maps that supply a synoptic view of data disposal for single proxies. WDB-Paleo proved to be a flexible and easily upgradable tool for past climatic and environmental studies of Mediterranean Sea. Single stored proxies can be processed one at time or integrated each other to join information and reduce the effects of the lack of data. At present, WDB-Paleo improves the possibility to: – recognize the available climatic paleo-proxies for both geographical area and specific time interval; – rapidly identify the availability and distribution of tie-points (dated tephra layers, AMS14C dating); – draw “isochronous time-lines” needed to link and

SISC Sixth Annual Conference - Book of Abstract 100 Climate Change in the Italian Mountains and the Mediterranean Region

synchronise archives from different settings; – assess the variability of available proxies in response to their geographical distribution, allowing to better understand the potential effects of local conditions on their behavior; – rapidly integrate data for multi-proxy investigation in a defined time range. Moreover, in the light of data sharing, the WDB-Paleo can provide the basic information useful to know the available cores and associated proxies, in order, for example, to correctly plan future Mediterranean oceanographic expeditions. Next developments for WDB-Paleo will aim to : a) record new proxies (e.g. sapropel, chemical analysis of tephra, quantitative data on radionuclides, Mg/Ca ratio), b) store new quantitative biotic data and c) ascertain the possible relation between huge volcanic eruptions and extreme climatic variations during the Quaternary.

References

1. IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change), Fifth Assessment Report - Climate Change, 2014 http://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar5/

SISC Sixth Annual Conference - Book of Abstract 101 Climate Change in the Italian Mountains and the Mediterranean Region

OSTER Yearly water balance of the Piedmont Alpine zone P

E. Brussolo1, S. Ferraris2, D. Gisolo2, M. Doveri3, G. Masetti3, A. Provenzale3

1SMAT Research Center, viale Maestri del Lavoro, Turin, Italy; 2Interuniversity Department of Regional and Urban Studies and Planning, Politecnico e Università di Torino, viale Mattioli, 39, Turin, Italy; 3CNR IGG, Pisa, Italy.

The spatial and temporal variability of temperature and of the main components of the water balance are keys issues for the management of water resources. The drinking water is particularly important in areas intensively built like the town of Turin, Italy. A research was recently funded by SMAT (Società Metropolitana Acque Torino) supplying drinking water to 400.000 houses (about 2.3 million people) for evaluating the present and future quantity of water available. This research began taking also into account previous studies both at the regional (Baiamonte et al., 2018) and at the global scales (Turco et al., 2015). The datasets come from monitoring activities institutionally performed by the Environmental Protection Agency of Piedmont Region (ARPA Piemonte) and by Assessorato Ambiente of Piedmont Region

A statistical analysis was performed on the different components the hydrological cycle, considering the average values over the different water catchments of the Metropolitan city of Turin at the hydrological year timescale. Historical data from 1958 to 2017 showed positive trends for minimum and maximum temperature and PET (Potential Evapotranspiration). Temperature growth was always statistically significant and PET growth was statistically significant in almost all drainage basins. Pq (total precipitation) and Pq-AET (Actual Evapotranspiration) outlined the same negative trends (statistically significant only in Dora Riparia water catchment) even if a growth was visible when the last 15 years were considered. Surface runoff data are only available starting from 2000 and they revealed that the partition of Pq-AET between Q and Recharge does not have significant trends (despite the caution required by the shortness of the timeseries).

Regarding future scenarios, the probabilistic evolution of the meteorological variables linked to the water balance terms were estimated considering two emission scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) and using an ensemble of EuroCORDEX regional climate projections. Thus, different aquifer recharge scenarios were

SISC Sixth Annual Conference - Book of Abstract 102 Climate Change in the Italian Mountains and the Mediterranean Region

outlined. Also in these simulations, only temperature and potential evapotranspiration values showed always significant trends.

References

1. Baiamonte G., Mercalli L., Cat Berro D., Agnese C., Ferraris S., 2018. Modelling the frequency distribution of interarrival times from daily precipitation time-series in North-West Italy. Accepted to be published in Hydrology Research.

SISC Sixth Annual Conference - Book of Abstract 103

Weather and Climate Extreme Events in a Changing Climate

Climate change in the Mediterranean regions: impacts on ORAL touristic coastal areas

F. Rizzetto,1

1 Istituto di Scienze Marine - Consiglio Nazionale delle Ricerche

The past and present impacts of climate change on the morphological stability of the Mediterranean touristic coastal areas have been recently analysed within the frame of the ongoing Interreg-Med CO- EVOLVE Project. The study has required the identification of the weather and climate extreme events occurred in the last decades along the littorals and their effects have been evaluated in relation to the present conditions of the coasts. The research has been carried out through the review of existing data from project outcomes, articles, reports, and maps, containing the relevant information necessary to achieve the purposes of the above mentioned project. A large amount of spatial data has been collected and stored within a Geographic Information Systems (GIS) database for an easy access and management. It has provided an overview of the available information about the status and evolutionary trends of the littorals, the natural and anthropogenic processes responsible for their modifications, and the local climate conditions, with a particular focus on extreme events. Data analysis has given the possibility to better understand the morphological response of the coasts to climate change and the consequent impacts on tourism. In fact, climate change causes modifications both on weather conditions

SISC Sixth Annual Conference - Book of Abstracts 104 Weather and Climate Extreme Events in a Changing Climate

and hydrodynamic processes (e.g., sea-level rise, increase of storm surges, variations in the seasonality of strong winds, increase of frequency and height of tides), thus influencing beach morphology and evolution as well as all human activities carried out on coastal systems. With reference to tourism, climate and weather affect tourists’ decision-making (destination choice and, consequently, tourist flows) and the success of this type of businesses. Information on heat waves, droughts, precipitations, winds, storms, waves, tides, and sea-level rise characterizing the Mediterranean regions has been collected and interpreted to identify the effects produced on coastal environments. Analysis has been performed according to the level of detail required by the project. This approach has given the possibility to identify the main extreme weather events that can be considered climate change indicators at both regional and country scales. Particular attention has been paid to their variations in terms of intensity, frequency, and distribution. The littorals have differently responded to similar events in relation to their characteristics (e.g., geology, geomorphology), conditions (e.g. littoralization, level of artificialization), orientation, and position in the Mediterranean basin, and to different local hydrodynamic factors. The great availability of data has enabled improving the knowledge not only on the past and present evolutionary trends of the coasts, but also on the future possible trends, mainly considering the foreseen relative sea-level rise scenarios and the expected increase of storms and wave heights. The results coming from this study have shown that the main impacts of climate change on the morphological stability of the littorals will be the increase of beach erosion and the growing risk of flooding, which represent serious threat especially for low-lying and urban coastal zones. These conditions will produce loss of lands (including infrastructures, urban settlements, natural heritage site, and recreational areas) and ecosystems, and, consequently, severe damages to economic activities, biodiversity, and other natural resources occurring in coastal areas. Moreover, sea-level rise and increased water withdrawals due to future higher demand, in addition to the possible decrease in river runoff, will also worsen salt-water intrusion into the aquifers, thus reducing the availability of drinking water. Owing to their economic value, the beaches must be defended from the negative effects of these processes. Thus, in the light of the projected climate change scenarios, the results of this research will provide a substantial support to the vulnerability and risk assessment and the coastal zone management of the Mediterranean countries.

Acknowledgements

This study has been performed in the frame of the Interreg Mediterranean Project “CO-EVOLVE - Promoting the co-evolution of human activities and natural systems for the development of sustainable coastal and maritime tourism”, co-financed by the European Regional Development Fund.

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Computation of extreme heat waves in climate models using ORAL a large deviation algorithm

F. Ragone 1,2, J. Wouters 1,3,4, F. Bouchet,1

1Laboratoire de Physique, Ens de Lyon, Université Claude Bernard, Université Lyon, CNRS, F- 69342 Lyon, France; 2Department of Earth and Environmental Sciences, University of Milano–Bicocca, 20126 Milan, Italy; 3School of Mathematics and Statistics, University of Sydney, Sydney, NSW 2006, Australia; 4Meteorological Institute, University of Hamburg, 20146, Hamburg, Germany

Studying extreme events and how they evolve in a changing climate is one of the most important current scientific challenges. Starting from complex climate models, a key difficulty is to be able to run long enough simulations to observe those extremely rare events. In physics, chemistry, and biology, rare event algorithms have recently been developed to compute probabilities of events that cannot be observed in direct numerical simulations. Here we propose such an algorithm, specifically designed for extreme heat or cold waves, based on statistical physics. This approach gives an improvement of more than two orders of magnitude in the sampling efficiency. We describe the dynamics of events that would not be observed otherwise. We show that European extreme heat waves are related to a global teleconnection pattern involving North America and Asia. This tool opens up a wide range of possible studies to quantitatively assess the impact of climate change.

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Heatwaves and effects on health: future impacts according to

POSTER climate change scenarios in Italy

P. Mercogliano 1,2 A. Reder 2, V. Villani 2, M. Scortichini 3, P.Michelozzi 3, F. De Donato 3

1C.I.R.A. – Italian Aerospace Research Center, Meteo Laboratory, Via Maiorise, 81043 Capua, CE, Italy; 2Fondazione CMCC – Centro Euro-Mediterraneo sui Cambiamenti Climatici, Regional Models and geo-Hydrological Impacts Division (REMHI), Via Maiorise, 81043 Capua, CE, Italy; 3Department of Epidemiology Lazio Regional Health Service ASL Roma 1 , Rome Italy

At present, cities are experiencing a significant alteration in climate patterns compared to their surroundings, posing tough challenges (cities warming, poor air quality and increases in frequency and/or intensity of extreme events) to the urban population. In this sense, one of the most evident and documented potential effects of the ongoing climate change is represented by the impacts of extreme events such as heatwaves and cold waves on the human health affecting life quality and inducing a state of discomfort mainly in the most vulnerable people, such as children, elders and less well-off people. On this topic, eminent works have highlighted a non-linear “U”- or “J”- shape relationship between temperature and mortality with an increase in the number of daily casualties when temperatures increase or decrease with respect to the minimum mortality rate.

The topic of potential effects of climate change on health is arising considerable interest in the climate debate as it is emerged from different initiatives undertaken at national and international level. Such a topic is very challenging requiring a multidisciplinary approach as it involves skills both on how the climate is changing and on health. In this perspective, climate researchers are aware of the need to develop and validate high-resolution Regional Climate Models (RMCs) projections that, reproducing the current climate dynamics and predicting the future ones in both urban and non-urban contexts, can contribute to support adaptation policies to create resilient cities and mitigate the potential effects of climate change on human health.

On the themes introduced above, Italy has taken a decisive step forward about the impacts of climate alterations on human health publishing in 2018 its “Climate and Health Country Profile” as a product of the Planetary Health project. Among the different actors involved in such a project, the collaboration between CMCC and DEP Lazio has offered the opportunity to develop a joint research to evaluate how

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the impact of heatwaves on human health may potentially vary in terms of number of deaths because of the ongoing climate change. The main results of such a research activity are presented in this work. The main objective is to quantify this potential variation referring to the 34 Italian cities directly managed by the DEP Lazio, responsible since 2004 for the real time monitoring of the number of daily deaths in the elderly population (age 65+).

As RCM the CCLM 8 simulation by CMCC is considered according to RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 assuming the period 2021-2050 as future condition and the period 1981-2010 as current one. CCLM 8 is a climate simulation characterized by a spatial resolution of 0.0715° (about 8 km) driven by the ERA-Interim and validated in other works. For the investigated cities, in addition to projections provided by RCM, the National Center of Meteorology and Climatology of the Italian Air Force (CNMCA) has provided temperature time series collected by the airport meteorological stations located near the city with a resolution of 3 hours. Daily temperature observations and projections have been firstly compared in this work over the current period. Such a comparison has shown that CCLM 8 projections are in a satisfactory agreement with observations in urban area, pointing out the great ability of this simulation in reproducing all the percentiles of temperature. This finding is very noticeable since CCLM 8 is a simulation that does not model explicitly of through a “bulk” approach the features of cities. Such an ability in reproducing percentiles of temperature suggest the opportunity of adopting raw model projections directly. In this sense, for the purpose of this work, both observations and model data have been handled at the daily scale, considering specifically the maximum temperature (Tmax) in the summer season JJA (June-July- August).

Once defined observed and projected input data, it has been introduced an indicator, the ws3di, aimed at quantifying the occurrence of a heatwave event. Such an indicator is defined as 3 or more consecutive days in JJA with Tmax values higher than the 90th percentile of the reference distribution for the specific city. Coupling the ws3di with mortality data of DEP Lazio a city-specific relationship between heatwave days and mortality in the population over 65 years has been obtained for 21 Italian cities in the period 1995-2010 during JJA. These relationships are able to turn ws3di into number of deaths attributable to heatwaves through the Relative Risk (RR), defined as the risk of mortality in a heatwave day against one in a "non-wave" day.

The expected future annual variation of deaths attributable to heatwave days is then carried out by multiplying the number of deaths attributable to heatwaves obtained using observations by the value of the anomaly obtained using current and future RCM projections as input for the ws3di. For this purpose, the study has been further refined considering the expected demographic variation and also an

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adaptation scenario to account for the potential impact reduction associated to the prevention interventions implemented in the Italian cities.

Overall estimates for all cities, show, solely for the portion attributable to heatwaves (extreme temperatures), 363 average annual deaths attributable in summer (June-August) in the years 1995- 2010. This number corresponds to about 50% of the deaths attributable in Italy to the effects of summer temperatures.

For the 2021-2050 period, both RCP scenarios show an average annual increase in deaths attributable to heat waves of about 100%, equal to about 700 annual deaths, taking into account the scenarios for increasing heatwave days and aging of the population. It should be borne in mind that these values are affected by uncertainties associated with both RCP scenarios and the variation scenarios of the elderly population. The future impact would be reduced to about 500 deaths attributable to annual heat, taking into account the effect of adaptation phenomena for both RCP scenarios considered.

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Heavy rainfall modulation by the oceanic thermal state POSTER

A.N. Meroni1, L. Renault2, A Parodi3, C. Pasquero1

1Dep. of Earth and Environmental Sciences, University of Milano-Bicocca, Milan, Italy; 2Dep. of Atmospheric and Ocean Sciences, University of California Los Angeles, USA and Laboratoire d’Étude en Géophysique et Océanographie Spatiale, CNRS/IRD/UPS/CNES, Toulouse, France; 3Cima Research Foundation, Savona, Italy Centro Euro-Mediterraneo sui Cambiamenti Climatici

Along the coasts of the Mediterranean sea, the vicinity of relatively high orography to the sea and, thus, the consequent strong gradients in the air properties (pressure, temperature, moisture) are thought to be a key factor in the generation of the so-called heavy-rain-producing mesoscale convective systems (MCSs). This kind of systems, by bringing large volumes of rain in few hours and over areas of the order of 100 km2 [1], can trigger consistent hydrological responses, that can cause economical damages and even casualties [2].

Surface wind convergence has been identified as a common trigger of such MCSs [2,3] and is known to be controlled, in terms of its horizontal structure, by the sea surface temperature (SST) [4]. In particular, two main physical mechanisms control the SST-surface wind relationship: the downward momentum mixing (DMM) mechanism [5] and the pressure adjustment (PA) one [6].

Numerical simulations are run, both in atmosphere-only and in a ocean-atmosphere coupled setup, to investigate the importance of the above-mentioned mechanisms controlling the SST- surface wind relationship in midlatitudes pre-convective conditions, leading to the 9 October 2014 Genoa heavy rainfall event. By artificially changing the forcing SST horizontal structure, it is found that the DMM mechanism has a significant role in controlling the marine atmospheric boundary layer dynamics, which is ultimately responsible for the location of the rain bands, through the control of the surface wind convergence structure.

Whereas, in the coupled setup, it is found that the action of the winds associated with the synoptic system, in which the heavy precipitation event is embedded, can entrain deep and cold water in the oceanic mixed layer, generating surface cooling. This, in the case study considered, is not important because the mixed layer is deep enough to insulate the marine atmospheric boundary layer from any feedback effects coming from the fully three-dimensional dynamical ocean. But in the case of shallow

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mixed layer and strongly stratified water column, this decrease in sea surface temperature can significantly reduce the air column instability and, thus, the total amount of precipitation produced.

References

1. Ducrocq, V. and co-authors (2014),HyMeX-SOP1. The field campaign dedicated to heavy precipitation and flash flooding in the northwestern Mediterranean, Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., pp. 1083–1100, doi:10.1175/BAMS-D-12-00244.2.

2. Nuissier, O., V. Ducrocq, D. Ricard, C. Lebeaupin, and S. Anquetin (2008), A numerical study of three catastrophic precipitating events over southern France. I: Numerical framework and synoptic ingredients, Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 134, 111–130, doi:10.1002/qj.200.

3. Fiori, E., L. Ferraris, L. Molini, F. Siccardi, D. Kranzlmueller, and A. Parodi (2017), Triggering and evolution of a deep convective system in the Mediterranean Sea: modelling and observations at a very fine scale, Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., doi:10.1002/qj.2977.

4. Small, R. J., S. P. deSzoeke, S.-P. Xie, L. O’Neilland H. Seo, Q. Song, P. Cornillon, M. Spall, and S. Minobe (2008), Air-sea interaction over ocean fronts and eddies, Dyn. Atmos. Oceans, 45, 274–319, doi:10.1016/j.dynatmoce.2008.01.001.

5. Wallace, J. M., T. P. Mitchell, and C. Deser (1989), The influence of sea surface temperature on surface wind in the eastern equatorial Pacific: Seasonal and interannual variability, J. Climate, 2, 1492–1499.

6. Lindzen, R. S., and R. S. Nigam (1987), On the role of the sea surface temperature gradients in forcing low level winds and convergence in the tropics, J. Atmos. Sci., 44, 2418–2436.

SISC Sixth Annual Conference - Book of Abstract 111 Weather and Climate Extreme Events in a Changing Climate

Impacts of extreme events on Italian electric system in the

POSTER future climate

R. Bonanno 1, P. Faggian1

1 Rse SpA - Ricerca sul Sistema Energetico

The intensification of extreme weather events (strong winds, thunderstorms and snowstorms) represents serious risks for human activities and infrastructures. Hazards such as floods and droughts are considered one of the main challenges of the 21st century because of their significant societal and economic implications. In particular, climate changes may have adverse effects on electricity generation, transmission and distribution network and energy demand, leading to more and more frequent blackouts, with consequent high costs for people and industries. Here the Italian Electric System has been considered, dealing with the energy production infrastructures (namely Thermoelectric, Hydroelectric, Photovoltaic Power Plants and Wind Farms) and Energy Demand. With reference to the SREX Report (IPCC, 2012), risk of climate-related impacts results from the interaction of climate-related Hazards with the Exposure and the Vulnerability of human and natural systems.

• Among different Hazards the following extreme events have been analyzed: Heat Waves, Drought, Floods and Severe Thunderstorms, Cold waves and Wet-Snow.

• The Exposure has been characterized by considering the electric infrastructures distribution over the national territory.

• The Vulnerability of each electric component has been classified into four classes depending on how the climate hazard affected it adversely.

With the exception of wet-snow, the extreme events mentioned above have been investigated by computing some related indicators chosen among the ECCDI indexes (WMO, 2009): summer days (SU), tropical nights (TR), consecutive dry days (CDD), extreme precipitations (R99PTOT), frost days (FD). To characterize wet-snow events, a properly defined Wet Snow Frequency (WSF) index has been computed. These climate hazard indicators have been investigated for the baseline HIST (1971-2000) and two future periods: FUT1 (2021-2050), FUT2 (2051-2080) by elaborating an ensemble of 12 bias-corrected climate projections obtained from high-resolution (~12 km) Euro-CORDEX simulations

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under the RCP8.5 radiative forcing. Moreover MESAN data-set (Landelius et al, 2016) has been used as reference reanalysis dataset over Europe with 5 km spatial resolution and temporal coverage 1979- 2013.The results highlight an exacerbation of the hazards, projected to become more serious in the second part of the century respect to the first one: the heat waves occurrences will likely increase of about 20 - 30% in the next decades, and 40 - 50% after the middle of the century; droughts are expected to become more frequent over time, increasing of about 5% and 10 - 20% in FUT1 and FUT2 respectively; severe storms and floods are also projected to increase locally from 10% to 30% in their occurrences, specially over coast areas during spring and autumn seasons. Instead wet-snow events are likely to remain almost unchanged in FUT1 scenario, whereas they are expected to decrease of 5 - 10% by 2100 over mountain regions. Cold waves are estimated to damp of about 10 - 20% and 30 - 40% in FUT1 and FUT2 scenarios. The increase in frequency of heat waves may result in: an increase of the energy demand in summer seasons; a decrease of thermoelectric energy production because of a lower efficiency in cooling processes; a reduction of network transport capacity as high temperatures can cause thermal expansion of power lines. Moreover, the increasing sag, due to high temperature, leads to a high risk of outages when conductors are close to the ground. A drought increasing is also expected, especially in central and southern Italy with a consequent reduction of hydroelectric power production because of water unavailability. In addition, water storage may mean a reduction of thermoelectric power production whose operations need water for cooling processes and an increase of energy demand in summer season. There is some uncertainty in detailing the extreme precipitation changes in the short term, whereas in the long term the most likely affected areas are the Northern regions and the Tyrrhenian coasts with possible severe damages or, even, destructions of infrastructures power production, as well as risk of shutdown in case of flooding of power stations and electric substations. Finally, a decrease of wet snow events and cold waves expected in the mountain regions, especially in the long term, will imply a decrease of energy demand in the winter period especially in northern regions and a reduction of risk of black-outs because of snow sleeves formation on the overhead lines. But a warmer climate will cause a faster glacier melting, too, and consequently a reduced water availability for hydroelectric-power generation. Moreover, high temperatures may degrade permafrost layers, with high risk of landslides which could damage or destroy infrastructures.

References

1. IPCC, 2012: Managing the Risks of Extreme Events and Disasters to Advance Climate Change Adaptation. A Special Report of Working Groups I and II of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [Field, C.B., V. Barros, T.F. Stocker,

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D. Qin, D.J. Dokken, K.L. Ebi, M.D. Mastrandrea, K.J. Mach, G.-K. Plattner, S.K. Allen, M. Tignor, and P.M. Midgley (eds.)]. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK, and New York, NY, USA, 582.2. 2. WMO. 2009. Guidelines on Analysis of extremes in a changing climate in support of informed decisions for adaptation. Technical Report WCDMP No. 72, WMO/TD-No. 1500, WMO: Geneva, Switzerland. 3. T. Landelius, P. Dahlgren, S. Gollvik, A. Jansson and E. Olsson: A high-resolution reanalysis for Europe. Part 2: 2D Analysis of surface temperature, precipitation and wind. Royal Meteorological Society. Published: 3 April 2016.

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Infrastructure Sector Exposure under Extreme Weather ORAL Events due to Climate Change

J.D. Radke1 , M. Schmidt-Poolman, Y. Ju1 , S. Lindbergh1 , T. Beach, G.S. Biging 2, K. Roberts 3 , H. Foster, E. Roe, L. Maier2 ,Y. He1 , M.Ashenfarb, P. Norton, M. Wray, A. Alruheili1 , S. Yi1 , R. Rau4 , J.Collins1 , D. Radke, M. Coufal, S. Marx, A. Gohar, D. Moanga, V. Ulyashin, A. Dalal

All affiliated to: University of California, Social Science Matrix and specifically: 1College of Environmental Design; 2Department of Environmental Science, Policy, & Management; 3Haas School of Business; 4Goldman School of Public Policy

As our climate changes, present-day infrastructure is potentially at risk of increased exposure to extreme weather events. Infrastructure are the basic physical and organizational structures and assets (e.g., buildings, roads, and power supplies) needed for the operation of an enterprise or society. A disruption in these physical and organizational structures translates to a disruption in how cities, regions, and/or countries function. Exposure to extreme weather events can lead to a disruption or to a complete failure of the infrastructure systems.

This research is part of the Fourth Climate Change Assessment of California, USA. This big assessment aims to “provide critical additional information to support decisions that will safeguard the people, economy and resources of California. Among other informational gaps about climate vulnerabilities, California still lacks critical information regarding expected climate impacts from extreme weather events (climate change not only creates new average conditions, it is also expected to create more extreme events such as flooding, more frequent and severe wildfires, more intense and more frequent drought).[1]

The infrastructure system we analyze is California’s Transportation Fuel Sector (TFS). The State relies strongly on the assets within this sector to be able to gather, produce and move transportation fuels. Transportation fuels are petroleum products (including gasoline, diesel, jet fuel, residual fuel oil and propane), biofuels (including ethanol and biodiesel), electricity (from various sources), and natural gas [2][3], used to move people and goods for personal and commercial purposes.

California is a major consumer of transportation fuels: the state ranks as the third largest gasoline consuming market in the world, after China and the United States as a whole.[4] In 2015 it consumed

SISC Sixth Annual Conference - Book of Abstract 115 Weather and Climate Extreme Events in a Changing Climate

one-fifth of the America’s jet fuel.[5] In addition, California was the third-largest producer of crude oil among the 50 states in 2016, accounting for about 6% of total U.S. crude oil production. The State has approximately one-tenth of the total U.S. refining capacity.[6] With a forecasted population growth to 48 million by 2040, California’s demand for, and reliance on, transportation fuels is only expected to increase [4] making in all the more important to examine the long-term effect of exposure on the infrastructure that makes it possible to move, produce and distribute those fuels.

In this research we examine and analyze the climate impact from flooding and wildfires on the TFS at a number of levels/scales. Firstly, we subject the TFS to regional climate change scenarios and undertake analyses of steadily increasing effects up to 2100 (long-term projection). This deviates from the more common use of global scenarios or of analyses done to prepare for abrupt disruptions (emergencies) in the short-term (looking out maybe 5, 10, 15 years). Our results indicate that the uncertainties in future coastal flooding and wildfire from different climate scenarios are relatively small at the beginning of the century (i.e. 2000-2020 period), but become much more pronounced by 2100. However, industry stakeholders indicate the 2020 -2040 period as being of most interest as it does not exceed their outlook of 10 years employed for their current planning and investment cycles, or 20 years that is the limit for their strategic planning. These time horizons are not aligned with the much longer-term extreme weather exposure found in existing climate change research.

Second, we find that planning and maintenance of the TFS assets is often regarded at the individual organization and asset level, not at the large sector-like network of organizations and assets that make its complete functioning possible. However, previous exposure studies are generally not done at spatial resolutions that are fine enough to inform industry stakeholders about the vulnerability of individual assets that are interconnected to reliably supply and distribute fuel. Therefore we analyse exposure at both coarse and fine spatial resolutions. Involved stakeholders indicate that downscaling each exposure potential to the asset level at finer resolutions is one way to address the uncertainty surrounding the use of larger scale climate hazard modelling. The downscaled models are more aligned with the stakeholders’ risk assessment, which involves understanding how climate projections lead to exposures that are altered in severity and frequency and how an asset’s propensity to damage is changed.

Our analysis at the finer spatial resolution also shows that two critical asset types (pipelines and central distribution terminals) in the TFS network at present have little or no redundancy when faced with exposure to flooding and wildfire over the long-term, by 2100. This accentuates the fact that if the assets fail due to (prolonged or increased) exposure, there are no other options to move fuels. Yet, because no formal definition of what constitutes the TFS exists and because planning and maintenance

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of the assets in the TFS is often regarded at the individual organization and asset level, no one organization can, or perhaps will, make a decision to limit exposure or limit negative effects of exposure for the greater good of the entire sector.

Third, our development of a TFS conceptual model advances the understanding of the connectedness and complexity of any infrastructure system such as California’s TFS. In the conceptual model we connect many TFS infrastructure assets together based on flow of crude-oil and of derived transportation fuels (products). Our stakeholder discussions regarding the conceptual model demonstrate that the “TFS” itself consists of multiple sub-sectors that could each be represented by their own conceptual model, yet product flows are dependent on their intraconnectivity as a network. Contracts and agreements between members of the TFS effectively move crude oil and fuels through this network. Accordingly, most asset managers understand only the system directly up and downstream from their asset; few have a complete understanding of the entire TFS. With private companies making up the TFS, and their proprietary-market constraints, no one stakeholder can be expected to have complete knowledge of the entire sector. Nonetheless, product flows downstream toward final consumption are highly dependent on its vertical integrity.

To add to the complexity of what makes up the “TFS”, stakeholders with whom we hold discussions underscore the importance of interconnected external industry infrastructures that are critical to the TFS’s successful operation. The TFS is not a stand-alone industry and is interconnected with many other key external industries (e.g. electrical, gas, and water) necessary for its operations.

To achieve these results we define the TFS, identify the assets involved and subsequently the relevant industry stakeholders to engage. We develop a geospatial dataset to digitally represent the assets. We model and analyze flooding and wildfires based on a range of the Fourth Assessment climate projections. [7] We determine where TFS assets in the State are exposed to flooding and wildfire by intersecting the TFS geospatial data with the flooding and wildfire exposure models. We determine where the greatest exposure to extreme weather events is likely to occur currently and move forward to the end of the century. This modeling is undertaken at a state-wide and at a finer spatial resolution at areas of concern indicated by industry stakeholders. The latter is especially important in order to understand the exposure at the asset scale, providing more pertinent results for ongoing operations, investment and planning cycles of those assets

References

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California Energy Commission (CEC). 2018. Research and Development Tool. Retrieved from http://resources.ca.gov/climate/safeguarding/research/

Bahreinian, A., Borges, E., Gage, J., McBride, B., Schremp, G., van der Werf, Y., & Yowell, G. (2015). Staff Draft Report, Transportation Energy Demand Forecast, 2016-2026 (No. CEC-200-2015-008-SD). California Energy Commission.

SISC Sixth Annual Conference - Book of Abstract 118 Weather and Climate Extreme Events in a Changing Climate

Projecting wind and waves regime in the Adriatic Sea in a

POSTER severe climate change scenario

D. Bonaldo1 , E. Bucchignani2,3 , A. Pomaro1 , A. Ricchi1 , M. Sclavo1, S. Carniel 1

1Institute of Marine Sciences – National Research Council (CNR-ISMAR), Venice, Italy; 2 Regional Models and Geo- Hydrogeological Impacts Division, Centro Euro-Mediterraneo sui Cambiamenti Climatici (CMCC), Capua, Italy; 3Meteorology Laboratory, Centro Italiano Ricerche Aerospaziali (CIRA), Capua, Italy

Due to the strong anthropic pressure and to the increasingly evident effects of climate change, the study of coastal dynamics at the decadal and multi-decadal scale is gaining importance in management and planning activities. As a part of a multidisciplinary research line devoted to long-term coastal vulnerability assessment in the framework of the National Flagship Project RITMARE, funded by the Italian Ministry of University and Research, we carried out a numerical modelling study aimed at characterising the expected wind and waves regime modification in a semi-enclosed basin under a severe climate change scenario. With reference to the Adriatic Sea (eastern Mediterranean Sea), we first assessed the skills of COSMO- CLM (the regional climate version of the operational mesoscale weather forecast model developed by the German Weather Service) under control conditions (1971-2000) and in a future climate change scenario (2071-2100). This latter condition is characterised by the most severe Representative Concentration Pathway considered in the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report, namely the one associated with 8.5 W/m2 increase in the radiative forcing (RCP 8.5). The present implementation of COSMO-CLM encompasses the central Mediterranean region with approximately 8 km horizontal resolution. After having assessed the model capability of properly describing the wind properties, as well as the improvements with respect to the previous state of the art, we used the COSMO-CLM wind fields as a forcing for a pair of climatological wave modelling runs, again referred to control and climate change scenario conditions. In order to investigate the possible upcoming modifications in the wave climate and focusing on their impacts on low-lying coastal systems, we implemented the SWAN spectral wave model on the Adriatic Sea with a resolution ranging between 7 km (along the central and eastern regions of the domain) and 2 km along the north-eastern coasts.

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COSMO-CLM appears capable of capturing not only the climatological wind intensity features, but also the peculiar directional distribution of the events, reproducing the bimodal dominance of north-easterly and south-easterly winds (Bora and Sirocco, respectively), as well as the typical jet patterns of the former blowing from orographic gaps. These achievements represent a significantly strong point of this implementation, as most climatological models available for this region so far poorly reproduced directional modes and strong spatial gradients, notwithstanding their major importance for coastal dynamics. Wind climate projections confirm the average tendency towards a moderate decrease of the wind energy blowing on the Adriatic basin, as suggested by previous studies. Nevertheless, wind energy appears to some extent redistributed along different directions, with a relative increase of Sirocco energy compared to Bora sea states. SWAN results, compared for the control configuration against data collected along the northern (where a recently published, 39-year long directional wave dataset was available), central and southern Adriatic Sea, show a satisfactory capability in reproducing the main wave climate statistics, particularly in terms of directional distribution as an evident heritage of the improvements provided by COSMO-CLM. A preliminary analysis of the expected wave climate modifications show how the directional wind energy redistribution can locally increase the average rate of wave energy impacting the northern coasts of the Adriatic Sea, with relevant implications for coastal vulnerability to erosion and flooding.

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Statistics of Medicanes in 30-years high resolution runs with the Weather Research and Forecasting regional model with POSTER different representations of convection

F. Ragone1,2 , M. Mariotti1,2 , A. Parodi3 , C. Pasquero1

1Department of Earth and Environmental Sciences, University of Milano–Bicocca, 20126 Milan, Italy; 2 Laboratoire de Physique, Ens de Lyon, Université Claude Bernard, Université Lyon, CNRS, F-69342 Lyon, France; 3CIMA Research Foundation, 17100 Savona, Italy;

The semi-closed Mediterranean basin, surrounded by high mountains, is placed in a favourable location for cyclone storms development. Most of these are extratropical cyclones of baroclinic and orographic origin, but occasionally some low pressure systems may develop to assume features characteristic of tropical cyclones. Medicanes (MEDIterranean hurriCANES) are infrequent and small in size. They originate and develop over the sea and are associated with strong winds and heavy precipitations. Proper definitions and classifications for Medicanes are still partially lacking, and systematic climatic studies are appearing only in recent years. In this work we provide climatologies of Medicanes based on 30 years long runs with the Weather Research and Forecasting regional model with different resolutions and setups. The detection of Medicanes is based on the methodology of cyclone phase space diagrams to examine the three-dimensional and thermal structure of the storms and discriminate among tropical and extratropical features. We compare the statistics of Medicanes in runs at 11 Km resolution with different convective parameterisations and microphysics schemes, and in runs at 4 Km resolution with explicitly resolved convection, showing how the representation of convection impacts the development of these structures. We perform then the analysis in present and future climate conditions, showing how the statistics of Medicanes is affected by climate change.

SISC Sixth Annual Conference - Book of Abstract 121 Weather and Climate Extreme Events in a Changing Climate

The impact of polar amplification on mid-latitude Rossby

ORAL waves and Persistent circulation patterns: an idealized numerical study

F. D’Andrea 1; E. Jolly 1 ; G. Rivière 1; S. Fromang 2

1Laboratoire de Météorologie Dynamique, Department of Geosciences, Ecole Normale Superieure, Paris,France; 2Universite Paris 7- Denis Diderot, Paris, France

Climate change warms the polar latitudes twice as much as the mid-latitudes. Polar amplification leads to a decrease in mid-latitude horizontal temperature gradients whose effects on mid-latitude atmospheric circulation and on the high-impact weather events frequency of occurrence are still debated. Different mechanisms have been discussed in the recent literature on the effect of a decreased horizontal temperature gradient on Rossby waves properties and blocking events. Here, a three-level quasi- geostrophic model on the globe forced by a relaxation in temperature is employed to assess the relevance of these mechanisms. Two long-term runs are compared, the first, called the control run, corresponding to the present wintertime climate and the other, the modified run, including a climate warming pattern. The modified-run includes a stronger warming at the northern pole compared to the control run, obtained via an ad-hoc potential vorticity forcing. The focus is made on the Northern Hemisphere mid-latitude atmospheric variability. Spectral properties of the waves in the two runs are compared. The modified run is characterized by a decrease in the eastward phase speed of Rossby waves, consistent with the changes in the background flow and dispersion relation of Rossby waves. In particular, the eastward displacement of synoptic Rossby waves (zonal wave numbers between 6 and 8) slows down and its consequence in terms of changes in persistent circulation patterns like blocking events is analyzed. Finally, these differences between the two runs are compared to differences between two successive periods (1979-1995 and 1996-2013) using reanalysis datasets.

SISC Sixth Annual Conference - Book of Abstract 122 Weather and Climate Extreme Events in a Changing Climate

ORAL Tornadoes in Italy: Climatology and numerical simulations

M.M. Miglietta1, I. Matsangouras2,3, J. Mazon4, A. Pasini5, R. Rotunno6

1ISAC-CNR, Lecce/Padua; 2Hellenic National Meteorological Service, Athens, Greece; 3Laboratory of Climatology and Atmospheric Environment, Faculty of Geology and Geoenvironment, Department of Geography and Climatology, University of Athens, Athens, Greece; 4Department of Physics, Universitat Politecnica de Catalunya BarcelonaTech, Barcelona, Spain; 5IIA-CNR, Rome; 6NCAR, Boulder, Colorado, USA

Ten years of tornadoes (TR) and waterspouts (WS) in Italy are analyzed in terms of geographical, seasonal, monthly, diurnal, and rating distribution [1]. A comprehensive dataset is developed for the period 2007– 2016, which includes 707 WS and 371 TR. The category of WS includes many weak events but also some intense vortices, able to produce significant damage as they make landfall. WS form mainly near the Tyrrhenian and Apulia region of the Ionian coast; the majority of them develops in autumn, followed by summer. The average density is 0.9 events per 100 km of coastline per year, although peaks of around 5 events per 100 km of coastline per year are reported along the Tyrrhenian coast. TR originate from WS in about half the cases; the average density of TR is 1.23 events per 104 km2 per year, which is comparable with other Mediterranean regions. TR are more frequent in summer, followed by autumn; however, limiting the analysis only to TR originated inland, the peak activity occurs in summer and in late spring. Thus, there is a distinction between “continental” cases, mainly affecting northern Italy in late spring and summer, and “maritime” cases, which affect mainly the peninsular regions in late summer and autumn, usually originated as WS. The highest density of TR is reported along the coasts of Lazio and Tuscany, in the Venetian plain, in the southern part of Apulia: in these regions, the density of events is comparable with that of the U.S.A. states with the highest TR rates. In contrast, the probability of significant TR in any Italian region is much smaller than that of the U.S.A. states with the highest risk. Among the significant Italian tornadoes in the last few years, the supercell that spawned the EF3 multi-vortex tornado affecting the city of Taranto on 28 November 2012 [2] is analyzed by means of the WRF model. Numerical simulations are able to reproduce the track, the change in intensity, and the evolution of a supercell thunderstorm similar to the actual one [3]. The genesis of the simulated supercell is due to a combination of mesoscale features: warm low-level air advected toward the Ionian Sea, combined with mid-level cooling due to an approaching trough; intense vertical shear, favoring the

SISC Sixth Annual Conference - Book of Abstract 123 Weather and Climate Extreme Events in a Changing Climate

possibility of supercell development; the uplift induced by the orography of the Calabria region, whose role was verified in a sensitivity experiment where the mountain height was reduced. Another set of sensitivity experiments, using modified sea surface temperatures (SST), shows that the thermodynamic changes induced by the positive SST anomaly enhanced lower tropospheric instability and favored deep convection, inducing dramatic changes in updraft helicity and vertical velocity even for SST variations of only + / 1 K [4]. The latter result appears relevant in the framework of future climate projections of

SST. −

References

1. Miglietta M., Matsangouras I., An updated “climatology” of tornadoes and waterspouts in Italy, International Journal of Climatology, https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.5526 2. M. M. Miglietta and R. Rotunno, An EF3 multi-vortex tornado over the Ionian region: is it time for a dedicated warning system over Italy?, BAMS, 97, 337-344, 2016 3. Miglietta M. M., Mazon J., Rotunno R., Numerical simulations of a tornadic supercell over the Mediterranean, Weather and Forecasting, 32, 1209-1226, 2017, doi: 10.1175/WAF-D-16-0223.1 4. Miglietta M. M., Mazon J., Motola V., Pasini A., Effect of a positive Sea Surface Temperature anomaly on a Mediterranean tornadic supercell, Scientific Reports, 7, 12828, 1-8, 2017, DOI:10.1038/s41598-017-13170-0

SISC Sixth Annual Conference - Book of Abstract 124 Weather and Climate Extreme Events in a Changing Climate

Updates of temperature monthly extremes as a signal of ORAL climatic drift in Italy

S. Amendola1, F. Maimone2; A. Pasini3

1Roma Tre University, Department of Mathematics and Physics, Rome, Italy. 2Italian Air Force, CNMCA, Pratica di Mare, Pomezia (Rome), Italy;3CNR, Institute of Atmospheric Pollution Research, Rome, Italy

As well known, recent warming of the planet is unequivocal at global level [1]. At regional scale, many areas are particularly interested by an even increased warming. Among them, Arctic is the most evident case, but also Mediterranean countries, and Italy in particular, are critically affected by a stronger warming [2-4].

In this framework, a particular attention must be paid to possible changes in prolonged temperature extreme events, due to their impact on territories, agriculture, human health, etc.. A strictly related aspect, though somewhat different conceptually, concerns the historical records, i.e. the temperatures never experienced before within the period of observation considered.

Here, using the data from 54 Italian meteorological stations during the period 1961-2016, we analysed the behaviour of updates of temperature monthly extremes for each station. On a single station, we have an update when the previous monthly temperature record has been overtaken. In particular, an original analysis (at our knowledge) was performed on these data. Once considered the period 1961-1980 as a reference climatology, we simulated the temperature behaviour and its records of extremes on the period 1981-2016 by a Montecarlo method under the hypothesis of a “constant climate”, when the extreme value theory [5] can be applied. This supplied us with a “law” for the increase of the number of monthly temperature records and the related percentile bands, considering all stations for each month. Then, we calculated the real updates of temperature monthly extremes on this period and compared them with the previous “law”. In doing so, events of positive updates of monthly Tmax and negative updates of monthly Tmin were considered. The results were evaluated at a national scale, but also for North, Central and South Italy. Furthermore, the peculiar behaviour of mountain, coastal and land stations was analysed.

SISC Sixth Annual Conference - Book of Abstract 125 Weather and Climate Extreme Events in a Changing Climate

In general, the results show that the number of warm records increases more than what forecasted by the constant climate “law”, in some months reaching or overpassing the 95th percentile; May, June, July and especially August appear as the most significant in this respect. Vice versa, the number of cold records lies often close to the 5th percentile or even under it; furthermore, in many months the cold updates are very few after the middle of the ‘90s.

Some months can be, however, seen as “stationary islands”. For instance, the behaviour of the number of warm updates in December and January follows very closely the hypothesis of a constant climate, even if, on the contrary, the cold updates in January lies under the 5th percentile.

Many other details can be recovered by the analysis of the single regions and station locations. For instance, the number of warm updates seems even more pronounced on coastal stations.

In any case, the unequivocal climate drift of the Italian mean temperature is confirmed by our analysis, which shows that, in general, warm (cold) temperatures updates increase more (less) than those forecasted in a hypothesis of stationary climate. This is particularly evident from May to August.

Keywords: temperature extremes, records, updates, stationary climate.

References

1. IPCC, 2013: Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovern¬mental Panel on Climate Change [Stocker, T.F., D. Qin, G.-K. Plattner, M. Tignor, S.K. Allen, J. Boschung, A. Nauels, Y. Xia, V. Bex and P.M. Midgley (eds.)]. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA, 1535 pp. 2. M. Brunetti, M. Maugeri, F. Monti, T. Nanni, 2006. Temperature and precipitation variability in Italy in the last two centuries from homogenized instrumental time series. International Journal of Climatology, 26, 345-381. 3. V.K.C. Venema et al., 2012. Benchmarking homogenization algorithms for monthly data. Climate of the Past, 8, 89-115. http://www.isac.cnr.it/climstor/climate_news.html 4. M. Ghil et al., 2011. Extreme events: dynamics, statistics and prediction, Nonlinear Processes in Geophysics, 18, 295- 350.

SISC Sixth Annual Conference - Book of Abstract 126

Paleo and Polar Climate

An updated overview of Last Glacial Maximum in the Alps:

ORAL comparisons and climate considerations

G. Monegato1

1CNR - Institute of Geosciences and Earth Resources

During the last decade, a significant improvement has been produced about the knowledge on timing and extent of the Last Glacial Maximum in the Alps. New available dating methods, such as cosmogenic isotopes, luminescence and the abundance of new radiocarbon datings coupled with detailed field survey and dedicated drillings. These have changed the understanding of the dynamics of the Alpine glaciations including how the global circulation processes affected the Alps. The new chronology belongs from new surveys of the end-moraine systems (i.e. Rhine, Dora Riparia, Reuss, Garda and Tagliamento) mostly located in the southern side of the Alps (Monegato et al., 2007, 2017; Preusser et al., 2011; Ravazzi et al., 2014; Reber et al., 2014; Ivy-Ochs et al., in press), and their fluvioglacial megafans (Fontana et al., 2014). The Alpine glaciers displayed a synchronous advance at about 27 ka and they spread out on the piedmont plain from 26 to 24.5 ka, with a second maximum advance at about 23 ka. Oscillations of the glacier snouts in the morainic amphitheatres occurred during the withdrawal until their final collapse at 18-17.5 ka. The waxing and waning of the Alpine glaciers compared to the development of the boreal ice-sheets highlights the singular synchronicity with the maximum extension of the North American Ice Sheet (NAIS) at 25-24 ka (Stokes et al., 2012). Whereas, the European Ice Sheet (EIS) had its maximum at 22-20 ka (Hughes et al., 2016). According to global circulation models, the topography of the NAIS induced the starvation of the EIS and the southward shift of the Polar Front (Beghin et al., 2015). This shifting

SISC Sixth Annual Conference - Book of Abstracts 127 Paleo and Polar Climate

enhances the southward circulation across the Mediterranean, which fed the Alps especially in the central-eastern sectors, where also small catchments developed large glaciers. At the initial withdrawal of the NAIS, at the beginning of insolation recovery, the jet stream was driven to the north, leading the final waxing of the EIS while the Alps were fed mostly by westerly circulation. This promoted the downwasting of the Alpine glaciers, especially in the southern and eastern sectors, while in the western and northern sectors they likely keep it up until 18-17.5 ka. At this time all the Alpine glaciers rapidly melted enhancing the peak of freshwater discharge recorded in the LGM Adriatic delta (Pellegrini et al., 2018).

References

1. Beghin P., Charbit S., Dumas C., Kageyama M., Ritz C. (2015) - How might the North American ice sheet influence the northwestern Eurasian climate? Climate of the Past, 11, 1467–1490. 2. Fontana A., Mozzi P., Marchetti M. (2014) - Alluvial fans and megafans along the southern side of the Alps. Sedimentary Geology, 301, 150-171. 3. Hughes A.L.C., Gyllencreutz R., Lohne O.S., Mangerud J., Svendsen J.I. (2016) - The last Eurasian ice sheets - a chronological database and time-slice reconstruction, DATED-1. Boreas, 45, 1-45. 4. Ivy-Ochs S., Lucchesi S., Baggio P., Fioraso G., Gianotti F., Monegato G., Graf A., Akçar N., Christl M., Carraro F., Forno M.G., Schlüchter C. (in press) - New geomorphological and chronological constraints for glacial deposits in the Rivoli- Avigliana end-moraine system and the lower Susa Valley (Western Alps, NW Italy). Journal of Quaternary Science. 5. Monegato G., Ravazzi C., Donegana M., Pini R., Calderoni G., Wick L. (2007) - Evidence of a two-fold glacial advance during the Last Glacial Maximum in the Tagliamento end moraine system (eastern Alps). Quaternary Research, 68, 284- 302. 6. Monegato G., Scardia G., Hajdas I., Rizzini F., Piccin A. (2017) - The Alpine LGM in the boreal ice-sheets game. Scientific Reports, 7(1), 2078. 7. Pellegrini C., Asioli A., Bohacs K.M., Drexler T.M., Feldman H.R., Sweet M.L., Maselli V., Rovere M., Gamberi F., Valle G.D., Trincardi F. (2018) - The Late Pleistocene Po River lowstand wedge in the Adriatic Sea: Controls on architecture variability and sediment partitioning. Marine and Petroleum Geology, 96, 16-50. 8. Preusser F., Graf H. R., Keller O., Krayss E., Schlüchter C. (2011) - Quaternary glaciation history of northern Switzerland. E&G Quaternary Science Journal, 60, 282-305. 9. Ravazzi C., Pini R., Badino F., De Amicis M., Londeix L., Reimer P. (2014) - The latest LGM culmination of the Garda Glacier (Italian Alps) and the onset of glacial termination. Age of glacial collapse and vegetation chronosequence. Quaternary Science Reviews, 105, 26–47. 10. Reber R., Akçar N., Ivy-Ochs S., Tikhomirov D., Burkhalter R., Zahno C., Lüthold A., Kubik P.W., Vockenhuber C., Schlüchter C. (2014) - Timing of retreat of the Reuss glacier (Switzerland) at the end of the last glacial maximum. Swiss Journal of Geosciences, 107, 293-307. 11. Stokes C.R., Tarasov L., Dyke A.S. (2012) - Dynamics of the North American Ice Sheet complex during its inception and build-up to the last glacial maximum. Quaternary Science Reviews, 50, 86-104.

SISC Sixth Annual Conference - Book of Abstract 128 Paleo and Polar Climate

Beyond the Ruddiman hypothesis ORAL

D. Battistel1,2 , N.M. Kehrwald3 , E. Argiriadis1 , A. Callegaro2 , R. Zangrando2 T. Kirchgeorg1 , P. Zennaro, L. Poto2 , E. Barbaro2 , M. Vecchiato1 , M. Segnana1 , A. Spolaor2 , M. Roman1 , A. Gambaro1,2 , C. Barbante1,2

1 Department of Environmental Science, Informatics and Statistics, University Ca’ Foscari of Venice, Venice, Italy; 2 Institute for the Dynamics of Environmental Processes – CNR, University Ca’ Foscari of Venice, Venice, Italy; 3 U.S. Geological Survey, Geosciences and Environmental Change Science Center, Denver, CO, USA

The increase of methane and carbon dioxide concentrations observed at ~7000 and ~5000 yr BP, respectively, in EPICA ice core records, induced Ruddiman to hypothesize that without the influence of the agriculture and the associated biomass burning, the concentration of these GHGs would have continued to decrease, as occurred during the previous interglacials where atmospheric GHGs sharply decreased after peaking at 260-300 ppm. During the years that followed its formulation (2003), the Ruddiman hypothesis has raised up many debates. Under the assumption that a possible correlation between the GHGs increase and the development of the early anthropogenic activities, the role of fire cannot be ignored for two main reasons: (a) it is well documented from archaeological studies that early humans have widely used fire for creating open spaces and for agricultural practices (e.g. slash-and-burn) (b) Biomass burning can impact on the climate system, increasing the emissions of aerosol and CO2 that in turn provide non-linear interactions with other climatic parameters, leading to both positive and negative feedbacks. The ERC Project “Early Human Impact” aimed to find evidence to support or disprove the hypothesis of Ruddiman. Considering biomass burning the front runner element of trait-d’union between early anthropogenic activities and GHGs emissions, the project aimed to reconstruct past fire activity all along the Holocene and to investigate how climate parameters respond both to temporal and spatial changes in biomass burning and vice-versa. Fire activity was reconstructed detecting molecular markers that are specifically related with biomass burning in climatic archives such as polar ice and lacustrine sediments located in strategic sites all around the world. Moreover, in the attempt to disentangle the natural from anthropogenic contribution on biomass burning at a more regional scale, novel biomarkers were individuated and analyzed in lacustrine archives. The more significant hemispherical and regional biomass burning records in conjunction with other climatic parameters showed that the Holocene fire history doesn’t support the Ruddiman hypothesis.

SISC Sixth Annual Conference - Book of Abstract 129 Paleo and Polar Climate

Moreover, the development of early human societies is patchy and the strongest impact can be mainly observed at regional scale which complicates a global synthesis. Nevertheless, the Ruddiman’s intuition shouldn’t be completely rejected, but rather revised and reformulated. Both Northern and Southern Hemisphere fire records from polar ice cores suggest an increase in fire activity between 2500 and 2000 y BP that may not be exclusively attributed to natural forcing. This anomalous increase in fire activity may reflect an acceleration in the development of human societies that started to influence significantly, although gradually, the climate system since that time.

SISC Sixth Annual Conference - Book of Abstract 130 Paleo and Polar Climate

Biomarker record from Lake Fucino(Abruzzo) during MIS-5

POSTER for paleoclimate reconstruction

E. Osayuki Erhenhi 1 , D. Battistel 1,2 , E. Argiriadis 1 , E. Regattieri 3 , G. Mannella 3 , B. Giaccio 4 , B. Wagner 5 , G. Zanchetta 3 , C. Barbante 1,2

1 Department of Environmental Science, Informatics and Statistics, University Ca’ Foscari of Venice, Via Torino 155, 30170 Mestre Venezia, Venice, Italy; 2 Institute for the Dynamics of Environmental Processes – CNR, University Ca’ Foscari of Venice, Via Torino 155, 30170 Mestre Venezia, Venice, Italy; 3 Department of Scienze della Terra, Università di Pisa, via S. Maria 53, 56126, Pisa , Italy; 4 IGAG-CNR Istituto di Geologia Ambientale e Geoingegneria - CNR Via Salaria Km 29,300, Monterotondo, Roma; 5 Institute of geology and mineralogy, University of Cologne, Germany

Understanding past climate variability can be a useful key to resolving climatic problems, however, direct measurement of climate is not available on the time scale from few hundreds of years to thousands of years, the most effective way to know the variability of past climate is by reconstructing the environmental conditions through environmental data that accumulates over time and influenced by climate (climate archives). The practice of climate reconstruction is a significant factor in understanding the Earths complexity. This research focuses on reconstructing the environmental condition during the last interglacial (between 50ka – 150ka), corresponding to the Marine Isotope Stage 5 and in particular the Eemian (MIS-5e), through multiproxy biomarker method in a sediment core from Fucino lake (central Italy), in order to provide understanding of natural climate variability at the time when human activities were not a primary forcing. In this research, biomarkers which are derived from the combustion of biomass burning such as Monosaccharide Anhydrides (MAs) (levoglucosan, mannosan, and galactosan), alongside Polycyclic Aromatic Hydrocarbons (PAHs) were analyzed for past fire severity the frequency. Additionally, we analyzed-alkanes, which are widely used as paleoenvironmental proxies since they provide insight into the vegetation distribution of the past. Plants synthesize n-Alkanes as components of leaf wax, and their distribution is sensitive to environmental conditions: long-chain n-alkanes (LCH > C23) in particular display a clear predominance of odd-numbered chains and are indication of higher terrestrial plants. The multi-proxy approach gives a better insight into past fire occurrence and vegetation changes, which can be used to infer past environmental conditions. The result of MAs analysis revealed fluctuations of fire activity between 90 and130 kyr and more intense during the Eemian, leading to a shift in weather and climate conditions. The vegetation distribution result of n-alkanes shows a high flux of LCH between 95 and 135 kyr, denoting the abundance of terrigenous

SISC Sixth Annual Conference - Book of Abstract 131 Paleo and Polar Climate

plants such as woody plants, shrubs, and grasses. The vegetation shift indicates a strong connection between climate and fire. Data reveal continuous fire occurrence during periods of high biomass influx and, the fire activity is reduced when there is a reduction in vegetation distribution: this emphasizes the role of vegetation as the source of fuel, which stimulates fire intensity and expansion. These results were compared to δ18O data analyzed from same lake sediment samples, to infer precipitation. The δ18O result shows a high precipitation during the period of higher influx of terrestrial markers, indicating a warm and wet period, with precipitation facilitating the growth and spread of terrestrial vegetation. Similarly, there is a reduction in precipitation during the period of intense fire activity, indicating a warm dry period There is a positive agreement between the biomarkers analyzed in this research and also with the δ18O, reinforcing the importance of multiproxy analysis.

SISC Sixth Annual Conference - Book of Abstract 132 Paleo and Polar Climate

Dating and investigating climate variability at high resolution

POSTER in the deep portion of the TALDICE ice core

I. Crotti1 , B. Stenni1,2 , A. Landais3 , C. Barbante1,2

1 Department of Environmental Science, Informatics and Statistics, University Ca’ Foscari of Venice, Via Torino 155, 30170 Mestre Venezia, Venice, Italy; 2 Institute for the Dynamics of Environmental Processes – CNR, University Ca’ Foscari of Venice, Via Torino 155, 30170 Mestre Venezia, Venice, Italy; 3 Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l’Environnemen IPSL/CEA-CNRS-UVSQ UMR 8212, Gif-sur-Yvette, France.

The deep polar ice cores provide reference records commonly employed in global correlation of past climate events. In particular, the EPICA-Dome C (EDC) deep ice core provided the longest and best- preserved record of climate and atmospheric composition changes in Antarctica, covering the last 800,000 years [1]. On the other hand, the deep ice core retrieved at Talos Dome in the framework of the TALDICE project, provided high resolution climate reconstructions for the Holocene, the last deglaciation [2] and the last glacial period in the Ross Sea sector of Antarctica. A common age scale, AICC2012, for Antarctic ice cores has been built for both EDC and TALDICE core [3]. However, this chronology for TALDICE ice core was defined only until the depth of 1438 m, coinciding with an age of about 154,000 BP. The bottom part of the core, down to 1620 m depth, still lacks an official dating. Our aim is to propose a new dating for the uninvestigated deeper part of TALDICE and to reconstruct climate variability for this portion. We will perform high-resolution (every 5 cm) discrete stable isotope analyses (18O/16O and D/H ratios) in the ice portion between the depth of 1440 and 1580 m. Furthermore, this new high-resolution record will be compared with the high resolution isotopic profile already obtained for EDC, to define first age scale of TALDICE core deeper part. Additional high-resolution δ18O measurements of atmospheric oxygen (δ18O atm) in the air bubbles of the bottom part of the core will be performed at LSCE. The record will allow performing dating through comparison with other δ18O atm records over the same period since δ18O atm is a global signal. Moreover, improvements of the TALDICE dating will be possible through new measurements of the 81Kr and 40Ar in air trapped in ice bubble that will be performed at the University of Science and Technology of China and at LSCE respectively. The investigation of the deeper part of TALDICE will provide a significant contribution to the understanding of past climate variability in the Ross Sea sector of East Antarctica. In particular, the high- resolution water stable isotope record will contribute to the reconstruction of past Antarctic temperatures and the computation of deuterium excess (d = δD - 8‧δ18O) will be essential to study past changes in the hydrological cycle. We will also investigate if the high-resolution isotopic records in the deep ice

SISC Sixth Annual Conference - Book of Abstract 133 Paleo and Polar Climate

may be affected by diffusion processes as noted in the bottom part of the EDC ice core. Such results will contribute to the understanding of diffusion processes influencing the isotopic records in the deeper parts of the ice sheet, especially in light of the Beyond EPICA – Oldest Ice Core (BE-OIC) project, which aims at drilling and investigating the climate variability of the past 1,5 million years.

SISC Sixth Annual Conference - Book of Abstract 134 Paleo and Polar Climate

Factors leading to wet LGM and dry future climate in the

ORAL Mediterranean region

P. Lionello1,2, R. D'Agostino3

1 DiSTeBA, Università del Salento (Lecce, Italy); 2Centro Euro-Mediterraneo sui Cambiamenti Climatici (Lecce, Italy); 3Max-Planck-Institut für Meteorologie (Hamburg, Germany)

The climate of the Mediterranean region from glacial conditions to future warming is analyzed using a set of 11 models, with simulations reproducing the last glacial maximum (LGM), the mid-Holocene (MidH), the preindustrial period (PIC, used as control experiment) and a high emission Representative Concentration Pathway scenario in the last 30 years of the 21st century (RCP8.5). Comparing LGM and RCP8.5 conditions, simulations show that the Mediterranean climate generally warms/cools at a pace comparable with the mean global temperature warming/cooling, while precipitation is lower than PIC values both in warm future (RCP8.5) and cold past (LGM) conditions. Because of future decrease of precipitation and increase of temperature, the Mediterranean region is considered a hot spot for climate change. However, mechanisms explaining future drying of the Mediterranean region are not fully understood. In this study, the decomposition of the moisture budget into thermodynamic, dynamic and transient eddy components is used to identify mechanisms leading to the regional change of hydrological balance (precipitation minus evaporation). Although the hydrological change in the Mediterranean exhibits coherent progressive drying as global temperature increases from LGM to RCP8.5, wetter condition in the LGM are mostly due to large scale dynamical mechanisms, while future dryer conditions are associate to a regional thermodynamic effect. It appears therefore, that past and future dynamics leading to environmental change are quite different.

SISC Sixth Annual Conference - Book of Abstract 135 Paleo and Polar Climate

Fe2+ in ice cores as a new potential proxy for past volcanic RAL O eruptions

F. Burgay1, T. Erhardt2, D. Della Lunga3, C.M. Jensen2, A. Spolaor4, H. Fischer2, C. Barbante1,4

1 Department on Environmental Science, Informatics and Statistics, Ca’ Foscari, University of Venice, Venice, Italy; 2 Climate and Environmental Physics, Physics Institute and Oeschger Centre for Climate Change Research, University of Bern, Bern, Switzerland; 3 Alfred Wegener Institute, Helmholtz-Zentrum fur Polar und Meeresforschung, Bremerhaven, Germany; 4 National Research Council - Institute for the Dynamics of Environmental Processes, Venice, Italy

Volcanic eruptions are widely used in ice core science to date or synchronize the dating of ice cores. Sulphates are emitted in large amounts in the form of sulphuric acid and their discrete and continuous quantification is currently used to determine layers impacted by volcanic emissions. A problem is that the methodologies normally coupled with continuous flow analysis for the identification of volcanic signals, struggle to achieve the depth resolution and the limits of detection necessary for deep polar ice. As well as sulphate, volcanoes emit a wide variety of chemical compounds, including large quantities of soluble and bioavailable iron. Bioavailable iron is mainly present in the form of reduced Fe(II) which is more soluble than the Fe(III) species, especially at low pH values where Fe(II) is present as Fe2+. Here we present a new high-resolution method for the continuous determination of Fe2+ species in ice cores with the aim of using it as a new tracer to identify volcanic eruptions. The method shows a detection limit of 5 pg g–1 and a polynomial calibration range up to at least 1760 pg g–1 . Furthermore, we propose∽ an improvement on the continuous method for the determination of total dissolved iron. Both the chemiluminescence-based method developed for the quantification of Fe2+ and the DPD method for the quantification of Fetot have been successfully applied to a Greenland ice core (B17) where the main volcanic eruptions from between 1588 to 1850 were identified. The results obtained suggest that it is

2+ Fe , not Fetot, that is most suitable proxy for identifying volcanic events.

SISC Sixth Annual Conference - Book of Abstract 136 Paleo and Polar Climate

Molecular composition of Dissolved Organic Matter in the

POSTER TALDICE ice core

R. Zangrando1, V. Zanella2, O. Karroca2, E. Barbaro1, N.M. Kehrwald2, D. Battistell2, A. Gambaro1,2, C. Barbante1

1 Institute for the Dynamics of Environmental Processes CNR, Venice, Italy; 2 Department of Environmental Sciences, Informatics and Statistics, Ca’ Foscari University of Venice, Italy

Deep polar ice cores are archives that collect information on paleoclimatic and paleoenvironmental conditions during glacial-interglacial swings. This information is then obtained by detailed analyses of the ice to obtain past temperature, greenhouse gas concentrations, and sea ice extent etc. The presence of trace chemicals in ice, reflect changes in their sources, transport, deposition, preservation.

An untargeted analysis of dissolved organic matter (DOM) provides a general over view of molecular species in the ice samples giving information on their sources and processes. For this kind of analysis typically 100 - 900 mL are required, this is not possible when dealing with deep ice cores. Using a nano- UPLC-nano-ESI-HRMS technique we have detected the major molecular species using only 4 µL of melted ice.

This work allowed us to tentatively identify generally aliphatic species, that were attributable mainly to the presence of saturated and unsaturated fatty acids, hydroxyl fatty acids and their degradation products, along with species from the oxidation of isoprene and monoterpenes and other compounds more difficult to interpret. Interglacial had more species while their number decreased in glacial samples. The reduction in oxidation products of isoprenes and monoterpenes is probably due temperature changes that affected terrestrial vegetation and the sea ice extent. Passing from interglacial to glacial times, unsaturated FAs almost disappeared because they are exposed for longer to oxidative processes.

Until now untargeted analyses have been limited to surface snow and shallow ice cores covering a short time span. To the best of our knowledge these are the first indications of the behavior of fatty acids and their oxidation products and the oxidation products of isoprene and monoterpenes in a deep ice core.

The innovative aspect of this work was the creation of a micro-volume analytical method that allowed the molecular characterization of DOM in a deep ice core.

SISC Sixth Annual Conference - Book of Abstract 137 Paleo and Polar Climate

Multi-year monitoring of water stable isotopes in daily ORAL precipitation at Dome C, East Antarctica

G. Dreossi1, B. Stenni2, B. Delmonte3, C. Scarchilli4, P. Grigioni4, G. Casasanta4, M. Del Guasta5, M. Casada6

1Istituto per la Dinamica dei Processi Ambientali, CNR, Venezia, Italia; 2 Dipartimento di Science Ambientali, Informatica e Statistica, Università Ca’ Foscari, Venezia, Italia; 3 Dipartimento di Scienze dell’Ambiente e della Terra, Università degli Studi Milano-Bicocca, Italia; 4 Laboratorio di Osservazione e Analisi per la Terra e il Clima, ENEA, Roma, Italia; 5Istituto Nazionale di Ottica, CNR, Firenze, Italia; 6 Alfred Wegener Institut, Postdam, Germany

The East Antarctic plateau site of Dome C has brought a significant contributing to ice core science as well as to climate science, culminating in the record-breaking EPICA Dome C drilling, which extends back to 800 ka BP, covering the last eight climatic cycles. Dome C is also close to the site chosen for the ambitious Beyond Epica-Oldest Ice Core (BE-OIC) project drilling (Little Dome C), which aims to reach 1.5 million years BP. A new 350-m drilling, in the framework of the Solarice (Study of the Solar Forcing over the Holocene from a new Dome C Ice Core) project, is currently carried out at Dome C, and has already reached a depth of 204 m. This project aims to reconstruct the solar activity fluctuations over the Holocene by obtaining a high-resolution record of the cosmogenic isotope beryllium-10, and to compare these results to the isotopic data from the same core, in order to see how the solar activity variations impacted on temperature.

Here we present the oxygen and hydrogen stable isotopes data that since 2008 have been continuously measured in daily-collected precipitation samples in the clean area of the French-Italian Concordia base; this is the first and so far the only multi-year record of isotopes in daily precipitation from Antarctica. The snow is collected on a Teflon surface standing 1 m from the ground, and for the last years of the dataset also on a wooden table placed on the ground; when the snow quantity is not sufficient for the analysis, the surfaces are cleaned, otherwise the snow is collected and sealed in LDPE bags, kept at -20°C.

The 10-minute temperature average from the US automatic weather station (AWS), which has been operating in for the last 23 years proximity of Concordia station, was used to calculate the 2-m daily temperature, while daily radiosonde data from Concordia were used to infer the top of the inversion layer temperature. These data are used to assess the isotope/temperature relationship in daily precipitation, in order to better understand the sensitivity of the isotope thermometer. The isotopic composition (δ18O and δD) of precipitation is in function of the condensation temperature, which is assumed to correspond

SISC Sixth Annual Conference - Book of Abstract 138 Paleo and Polar Climate

to the top of the inversion layer temperature, but a robust linear correlation between the local 2-m temperature and δ18O and δD of precipitation is well known in literature. The difference between the raised support and the ground collected snow arise from the contribution of wind-drifted snow, which affects more heavily the ground deposition, but to a certain extent could be also due to the different physical processes occurring on the surface that affect the isotopic composition. The daily precipitation isotope data will also be compared to the isotope signal found in ice core, giving us a hint on how the post-depositional processes affect the pristine isotopic composition. The knowledge acquired studying daily precipitation will be useful to improve the interpretation of the high-resolution isotopic record that will be obtained from the Solarice core over the Holocene.

SISC Sixth Annual Conference - Book of Abstract 139 Paleo and Polar Climate

Paleo Arctic sea ice evolution during D-O events 7 to 10: ORAL A multidisciplinary approach.

F. Scoto1, C. Barbante1,2 , A. Saiz-Lopez3, P. Vallelonga4, A. Spolaor2

1Ca’Foscari University of Venice, Department of Environmental Sciences, Informatics and Statistics, Via Torino 155, 30170 Venice Mestre, Italy; 2Institute for the Dynamics of Environmental Processes, IDPA-CNR, Via Torino 155, 30170 Venice Mestre, Italy; 3Department of Atmospheric Chemistry and Climate, Institute of Physical Chemistry Rocasolano, CSIC, Serrano 119, 28006 Madrid, Spain; 4Copenhagen University, Niels Bohr Institute, Centre for Ice and Climate, Copenhagen, Denmark

In the last four decades, Arctic sea ice is experiencing an overall decrease with a notably faster rate than projected by numerical models. Despite a huge amount of observations has been acquired since the advent of satellite era (1979) there are very few information about past sea ice. Thus, in order to enhance future scenarios predictions, the record of past sea ice conditions represents a crucial information. In particular, a focus on the mechanisms controlling sea ice dynamics during abrupt temperature shifts is essential to improve climate models and better reproduce current changes. Several studies (Spolaor et al. (2013); (2016)) link bromine in ice cores as potential proxy of past sea ice conditions. In particular, at polar latitudes the photochemical recycling of bromine is extremely efficient over first year sea ice (FYSI), resulting in enhanced concentrations of gas phase bromine (e.g. BrO) compared to the ocean surface, multi-year sea ice or snow-covered land. The net effect of this process (referred as “Bromine explosion”) can be detected in snow and ice samples as enrichment in bromine (Br_enr) compared to the seawater Br/Na ratio. The Bromine enrichment record of the NEEM core has been linked to sea ice conditions in the Canadian Arctic (Spolaor et al., 2016). It lacks, however, the time resolution needed to resolve D-O events. Here we present a new high resolution (multi-annual) measurements across the transitions of D-O 7, 8, 9 and 10 (34-41 kyr) for Br_enr from NEEM core samples. The increased resolution (2-3 cm for each sample) might allow to better distinguish the amplitude of each transition, while the comparison with stable oxygen isotopes will provide information about the time lag between atmospheric warming and sea ice response. In conclusion, pursuing a multidisciplinary approach, the experimental results will be used to constrain a chemical-transport numerical model for Br_enr that will help to deepen the insight about sea ice extent variations during rapid climate fluctuations.

SISC Sixth Annual Conference - Book of Abstract 140 Paleo and Polar Climate

Palaeoclimatic sedimentary record on the depositional ORAL sequences recovered on the NW Barents Sea

R.G. Lucchi1, C. Morigi, C.2,3, K. Husum4, J.S. Laberg5, M.E. Musco1,6, C. Caricchi7, V. Gamboa Sojo2, M. Caffau1, L. Sagnotti7, P. Macrì7, F. Princivalle8, G. Giorgetti6, A. Caburlotto1, M. Rebesco1

1OGS, National Institute of Oceanography and Experimental Geophysics, Trieste, Italy; 2 University of Pisa, Italy; 3Geological Survey of Denmark and Greenland, Copenhagen, Denmark; 4Norwegian Polar Institute, Tromsø, Norway; 5 UIT – the Arctic University of Norway in Tromsø, Norway; 6 University of Siena, Italy; 7National Institute of Geophysics and Volcanology, Rome, Italy; 8University of Trieste, Italy.

The recent depositional architecture of the north-western Barents Sea continental margin derives from past climate changes with alternating deposition of highly consolidated glacigenic diamicton (continental shelf) and debris flows (continental slope) associated to shelf-edge glaciations, and low-density, normally consolidated biogenic-rich sediments deposited during interglacial conditions. In addition, sub- bottom records outline the presence of acoustically laminated deposits locally having thickness exceeding 10 m, which lithofacies characteristics indicate deposition from turbid meltwaters (plumites) during short-living, phases of glacial retreat (meltwater pulses, MWP). One of the youngest stratigraphic intervals recognized along the NW Barents Sea margin was related to the MWP-1a that was responsible for the deposition of about 1.1 x 1011 tonnes of sediments on the upper slope of the Storfjorden- Kveithola TMFs (south of Svalbard) [1]. New compositional analyses of the plumites recovered in two Calypso giant piston cores, collected from two sediment drifts located on the western side of Spitzbergen, revealed a distinct signature that allow us to distinguish deposition from glacial melting form that related to the ice-sheet sub-glacial erosion and transport to the edge of margins. Sediment facies and compositional analyses lead to a new climate-related interpretation of the laminated deposits recognized during Marine Isotopic Stages 3 and 2 on the NW margin of the Barents Sea, including Heinrich Event H2.

SISC Sixth Annual Conference - Book of Abstract 141 Paleo and Polar Climate

Planktonic foraminifers as a proxy for the North Atlantic ORAL Oscillation in the western area of the strait of Sicily

A. Faggi 1, G. Margaritelli2, G. Franceschetti1, F. Lirer2, S. Monechi1, L. Capotondi3

1Dipartimento di Scienze della Terra, Firenze, Italy; 2Istituto Ambiente Marino Costiero (IAMC)-CNR Calata Porta di Massa, Napoli Italy; 3Consiglio Nazionale delle Ricerche Istituto di Scienze Marine UOS BOLOGNA, Italy

The last five millennia, in Europe, have been characterized by an alternation of warm and cool intervals, but the driving mechanism that leads these climatic variations is still uncertain. One of the possible causes of the European climatic variations is the influence of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). The planktonic foraminiferal assemblages can well record the paleoclimatic and paleoceanographic changes. The purpose of this work is to analyze how the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) influenced the planktonic foraminiferal assemblage changes in a gravity core drilled in the North-West Gela Basin (Strait of Sicily). Core ND11-SW104 (104cm) has been sampled every centimeter (104 samples) and approximately 300-400 specimens of planktonic foraminifera has been counted in each sample. More than 17 taxa (morphotypes) have been identified. The planktonic foraminiferal assemblage is mainly composed of Globorotalia inflata, Globigerinoides ruber white, Globigerinita glutinata, Globorotalia truncatolinoides left coiled and Orbulina. Quantitative analysis documented several important variations in abundance that, integrated with the planktonic paleoclimatic curve, the rainfall index (G. ruber/G. inflata) and the Shannon-Wiener index, allow the identification of several intervals that can be well correlated with the archeological/cultural periods from the Eneolithic period up to the Modern Warm Period. The influence of the Atlantic water and the NAO index seems to be related to the distribution patterns of Globigerina bulloides, G. glutinata and G. ruber (white). The paleoclimatic curve shows the main change to cold climate condition between 2800 and 2400 yr BP. Upwards, the well-known Little Ice Age cooling interval is well documented in paleoclimatic curve oscillation. In addition, the long-term trends of G. inflata and Neogloboquadrina dutertrei shown a well-developed and stable Deep Chlorophyll Maximum (DCM) from base core to ca. 2600-2800 yr BP and a strong influence of Atlantic water upwards.

SISC Sixth Annual Conference - Book of Abstract 142 Paleo and Polar Climate

Seasonal to inter-annual variability of the East Greenland ORAL shelf: a study focused on the Sermilik fjord area

F. Facchinetti1,2, S. Masina2 , D. Iovino2, F. Straneo3

1University Ca’ Foscari, Venice, Italy; 2Centro Euro-Mediterraneo sui Cambiamenti Climatici, Bologna, Italy; 3Scripps Institution of Oceanography, San Diego, California, USA.

The interaction of warm, Atlantic-origin water (AW) and colder, polar water advecting southward along the southern-east (SE) Greenland continental shelf, influences the amount of heat entering the glacial fjords and the melting of Greenland's outlet glaciers. The main objective of this work is to analyze the water mass variability and the circulation of the East Greenland boundary current system on the SE continental shelf, using a global eddying ocean/sea ice configuration (GLOB16), and to properly represent the shelf/fjord exchange and fjord dynamics using a frontier-resolution model (High-RES). Regarding the variability and evolution of the East Greenland boundary current system, the eddying GLOB16 configuration (with horizontal resolution of ~4 km in the region of interest) based on NEMO ocean model is used. On the other hand, to investigate the ocean dynamics within a fjord, a frontier- resolution configuration, also based on NEMO ocean model, is used in order to better resolve the ocean circulation inside the fjord and its interplay with the “open ocean” dynamics. A mesh at km-metric horizontal resolution (with horizontal resolution of ~1 km in the region of interest, High-RES) is employed to properly simulate the interior fjord circulation. Considering that the bathymetry plays a key role in regulating the AW inflow from the shelf and its circulation within a fjord, a new regional bathymetry product, BedMachine, available at the National Snow and Ice Data Center (NSIDC), is used to choose a more accurate input for the High-RES configuration, allowing a robust representation of the 3D fjord geometry and consequently the processes within. In this work the Sermilik fjord case-study is presented, since the complex shelf bathymetry in that region is ideal to study the water masses propagation inside the fjord, and the availability of hydrographic observations inside the fjord allows a proper validation of the model output. A set of sensitivity experiments with different bathymetries and melt-water inputs are performed to study the variability in space and time of freshwater spreading from the interior of the fjord into the Atlantic sub-polar gyre.

SISC Sixth Annual Conference - Book of Abstract 143 Paleo and Polar Climate

Experiments are performed both in the Sermiik fjord area and in a bigger area encasing all the east Greenland shelf, allowing to shed light on the freshwater spreading pathways and the evolution of the currents along the shelf.

SISC Sixth Annual Conference - Book of Abstract 144 Paleo and Polar Climate

Southwest Pacific deep-water carbonate chemistry over the ORAL past 1 million years

P. Ferretti1,2, H. Elderfield2,3, M. Greaves2, S.J. Crowhurst2, C. Barbante1, I.N. McCave2

1Consiglio Nazionale delle Ricerche, Istituto per la Dinamica dei Processi Ambientali, Mestre Venice I-30172, Italy; 2The Godwin Laboratory for Palaeoclimate Research, Department of Earth Sciences, University of Cambridge, United Kingdom; 3Deceased

The Fifth assessment report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) [1] has provided estimates of the global climate evolution in the twenty-first century. Using a variety of scenarios, estimated CO2-eq concentrations in year 2100 are between ca. 430-480 and >1000 parts per million compared with annual average levels which have recently surpassed 411 parts per million in May 2018. The projected changes of the associated global mean surface temperatures are between 1 and 3.7ºC (relative to the 1986-2005 period) for the end of the 21st century, and those of global mean sea-level rise between 0.40 and 0.63 m. The uncertainties in the estimates reflect, in part, incomplete understanding of the carbon cycle. The oceans are an important component of the carbon cycle because they exceed the atmosphere in terms of carbon storage by more than a factor of 50. Because the gas readily diffuses between the ocean surface and the atmosphere, small shifts in ocean carbon cycling, either through physical processes such as stratification or via biological processes such as changing productivity, could have a big influence on atmospheric pCO2. All these variations are not always easy to quantify in the short-term period, but the palaeoceanographic record provides important evidence of these changes in the geological past, providing also a baseline for comparison with modern observational studies and allowing to gain a better perspective on the rates and amplitudes of change. The determination of the carbon content of water masses in the geological past is therefore a tantalizing objective, as it is critical to our ability to put better estimates on climate sensitivity to rising CO2. However, reconstructing carbon content in the past is difficult to accomplish. A promising approach to reconstructing the history of specific aspects of oceanic carbon chemistry is based on the chemistry of boron in the shells of foraminifera, pelagic organisms that are among the major oceanic producers of calcium carbonate in the oceans. Here we reconstruct past changes in bottom water inorganic carbon chemistry from the trace element and stable isotopic composition of calcite shells of the infaunal benthic foraminifera Uvigerina spp from a marine sediment core recovered in the mid Southern latitudes. Ocean Drilling Program Site 1123 was

SISC Sixth Annual Conference - Book of Abstract 145 Paleo and Polar Climate

retrieved from Chatham Rise, east of New Zealand in the Southwest Pacific Ocean (41º47.2’S, 171º 29.9 W, 3290 m water depth) [2]. This site lies under the Deep Western Boundary Current (DWBC) that flows into the Pacific Ocean, and is responsible for most of the deep water in that ocean; DWBC strength is directly related to processes occurring around Antarctica. Site 1123 has provided many important advances in palaeoceanography during the last 15 years [3], including disentangling the contributions of ice volume and temperature to the oxygen isotopic composition of foraminiferal calcite [4], an issue that has been debated for more than 40 years. In this study, we determine the ratio of boron to calcium (B/Ca) in benthic foraminifer shells, a proxy for

2- the calcite saturation state of ocean bottom waters as quantified by the parameter ∆CO3 [5]. This parameter, representing the difference between the in situ carbonate ion concentration and the

2- 2- 2- concentration that would be required for calcite saturation (∆CO3 = [CO3 ]in situ - [CO3 ]saturation)is often used in lieu of the full calcite saturation parameter

2+ 2- 2+ 2- (Ω = [Ca ] [CO3 ]in situ / [Ca ] [CO3 ]saturation)because the concentration of calcium ion in seawater is roughly constant on short (<1 Million year) timescales. These results permit preliminary discussion on the deep-water carbonate saturation state during glacial/interglacial transitions and the interglacials themselves. Deep-water temperatures estimates using Mg/Ca are available from Site 1123 [4] for the last 1.5 million years and the phase relationship between the two signals is tentatively assessed for the middle/late Pleistocene, when different patterns of climate variability have been inferred from marine and ice cores records.

References

1. IPCC, 2014: Climate Change 2014: Synthesis Report. Contribution of Working Groups I, II and III to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [Core Writing Team, R.K. Pachauri and L.A. Meyer (eds.)]. IPCC, Geneva, Switzerland, 151 pp. 2. Shipboard Scientific Party, 2000. Site 1123: North Chatham Drift - a 20-Ma Record of the Pacific Deep Western Boundary Current. In Carter, R.M., McCave, I.N., Richter, C., Carter, L., et al., Proc. ODP, Init. Repts., 181, 1- 184 [Online]. Available from World Wide Web: < http://www- odp.tamu.edu/publications/181_IR/chap_07/chap_07.htm >. 3. Hall, I.R., McCave, I.N., Shackleton, N.J., Weedon, G.P., Harris, S.E. 2001. Intensified deep Pacific inflow and ventilation in Pleistocene glacial times. Nature 412, 809-812. 4. Elderfield, H., Ferretti, P., Greaves, M., Crowhurst, S.J., McCave, I.N., Hodell, D. and Piotrowski, A. (2012). Evolution of ocean temperature and ice volume through the Mid Pleistocene Climate Transition. Science, vol. 337, 6095, 704-709. 5. Yu, J., Elderfield, H. (2007). Benthic foraminiferal B/Ca ratios reflect deep water carbonate saturation state. Earth Planet. Sci. Lett., 258, 73-86.

SISC Sixth Annual Conference - Book of Abstract 146 Paleo and Polar Climate

Stratigraphic constrains and evidences for climate Event 4.2 ORAL in the Mediterranean marine records

F. Lirer1

1Istituto per l’Ambiente Marino Costiero (IAMC) – CNR, Calata Porta di Massa, Interno Porto di Napoli, 80133, Napoli, Italy

We present a high-resolution integrated study carried out on shallow and deep marine records from the central-western Mediterranean basin focused on the 4.2 ka Event, that is formally used to identify the base of the Late Holocene (Meghalayan Stage). This study allowed us to chronologically constrain this event between the strong increase in abundance of planktonic foraminifer Globorotalia truncatulinoides left coiled at 4.4 kyr and the Acme Base of Globigerinoides quadrilobatus, dated at 3.7 kyr. These two planktonic foraminiferal bioevents represent useful tools to identify this short time interval. In addition, the occurrence in the records of tephras with regional and local relevance and related to Somma-Vesuvius (AP, Avellino) and Campi Flegrei (Agnano Monte Spina, Astroni, Averno2 and Capo Miseno) events, further constrains this stratigraphic interval the lower limit of which is associated to the Agnano Monte Spina deposits. In terms of climate response, the strong increase in the abundances of G. truncatulinoides, in the western Mediterranean, corresponds with the end of the African Humid Period, which marks the transition from a more humid climate to the semi-arid climate that exists in the Mediterranean region today. Modern day hydrographic conditions in the western Mediterranean Sea support the development of deep vertical mixing, in particular in the north-western basin associated with Western Mediterranean Deep Water (WMDW) formation. This subsequently provides the means for G. truncatulinoides to complete its life cycle thereby contributing to the proliferation of the species. In addition, by integrating several planktonic foraminiferal stable isotope records, calcareous nannofossil and planktonic foraminiferal data, we suggest a longstanding of this cold climatic 4.2 event of ca. 400 years interrupted by a warm event. These new results are discussed in the context of other records in the Mediterranean in terms of stratigraphic constrains and evidences for the Event 4.2 ka in the central - western Mediterranean marine records.

SISC Sixth Annual Conference - Book of Abstract 147 Paleo and Polar Climate

We acknowledge financial support from the Italian Project of Strategic Interest NEXTDATA (http://www.nextdataproject.it) “A national system for recovery, storage, accessibility and dissemination of environmental and climatic data from mountain and marine areas”.

SISC Sixth Annual Conference - Book of Abstract 148 Paleo and Polar Climate

Stratigraphic dating of a 80 m deep firn core drilled in coastal ORAL East Antarctic ice sheet (Eastern Wilkes Land)

L. Caiazzo1, S. Becagli1, R. Traversi1, M. Severi1, R. Nardin1, G. Noferini1

1Dipartimento di Chimica (U. Schiff), Università di Firenze, via della Lastruccia 3 – 50019 Sesto Fiorentino, Firenze

The Antarctic ice sheet and the surrounding ocean play a key role in climate dynamics [1]. Causes and control factors of the current climate change are not yet fully understood [2]; for these reasons, increasing attention has been recently paid to natural climate variability over the last millennium, as compared to anthropogenic climate forcing occurred during the last century [3]. This work is focused on Northern Victoria Land and Eastern Wilkes Land (East Antarctica) sector, where GV7 site (70° 41’ 17.1” S; 158° 51’ 48.9” E; 1950 m a.s.l.) is located. GV7 is situated on north-south transect following the ice divide extending from the Oates Coast to Talos Dome. The GV7 drilling was accomplished through a bilateral Italy - South Korea collaboration, during the 2013/2014 Antarctic summer field. Snow pit samples, shallow firn cores and a 250 m deep ice core were collected [4]. This site was firstly investigated during the 2001/2002 ITASE traverse, where a mean snow accumulation rate of 241 ± 13 mm we/yr were found over the past 50 years. Besides, this site is characterized by an ice thickness of about 1700 m, which could allow to obtain a very well time resolved and preserved geochemical and paleoclimate records for the last 1-2 kyr [5-6]. In this work we present the stratigraphic dating of the most superficial 80m of the 250 m firn core, firn core dating is the first step for a correct interpretation of climatic and environmental changes. The firn core sections were firstly decontaminated, subsampled at 5 cm resolution and analysed using an ion chromatography system that allowed the simultaneous

2- detection of main and trace ions. Among the analysed ions, nssSO4 (sulphates not coming from sea spray) was chosen as chemical marker for dating as it is characterized by a seasonal pattern with summer maxima. Stratigraphic dating was validate by using the volcanic eruptions, well visible in the

2- nssSO4 profile as concentration peak lasting more than one year, as historically known as tie point. The GV7 (B) firn core dating showed clear snow layers from 2008 (first summer peak) to 1775 and six clear volcanic events: Pinatubo (Philippines 1991), Agung (Indonesia, 1963), Krakatoa (Indonesia, 1883), Cosiguina (Nicaragua 1835), Tambora (Indonesia, 1815) and Unknown (1809). The

SISC Sixth Annual Conference - Book of Abstract 149 Paleo and Polar Climate

accumulation rate for the 2008-1775 time period was 191 mm we/yr, slightly lower than 242 mm we/yr found for recent period (2013-2008) from snow pit analysis.

References

1. EPICA Community Members 2006, One-to-one coupling of glacial climate variability in greenland and antarctica. Nature, 444:195-198. 2. IPCC-AR5, 2013. Intergovernmental Panel for Climate Change - Fifth Assessment Report, “Climate Change 2013. The Physical Science Basis” (Summary for Policymakers). 3. B. Stenni, M. Proposito, R. Gragnani, O. Flora, J. Jouzel, S. Falourd and M. Frezzotti, 2002. Eight Centuries Of Volcanic Signal And Climate Change At Talos Dome (East Antarctica). Journal Of Geophysical Research, Vol. 107, No. D9, 10.1029/2000JD000317. 4. L. Caiazzo, G. Baccolo, C. Barbante, S. Becagli, M. Bertoe, V.Ciardini, I. Crotti, B. Delmonte, G. Dreossi, M. Frezzotti, J. Gabrieli, F. Giardi, Y. Han, S.-B. Hong, S.D. Hur, H. Hwang, J.H. Kang, B. Narcisi, M. Proposito, C. Scarchilli, E. Selmo, M. Severi, A. Spolaor, B. Stenni, R. Traversi and R. Udisti, 2017. Prominent features in isotopic, chemical and dust stratigraphies from coastal East Antarctic ice sheet (Eastern Wilkes land). Chemosphere, 176:273-287. 5. Magand, O., Frezzotti, M., Pourchet, M., Stenni, B., Genoni, L., Fily, M., 2004. Climate variability along latitudinal and longitudinal transects in east Antarctica. Ann. Glaciol. 39, 351-358. 6. Frezzotti, M., Urbini, S., Proposito, M., Scarchilli, C., Gandolfi, S., 2007. Spatial and temporal variability of surface mass balance near Talos Dome, East Antarctica. J. Geophys. Res. 112, F02032.

SISC Sixth Annual Conference - Book of Abstract 150 Paleo and Polar Climate

The last glacial coldest extreme: the LGM climate at the

OSTER southern alpine fringe reconstructed from a high-resolution P palaeoecological record

R. Pini1, L. Wick2, G. Furlanetto3, C. Ravazzi1, F. Vallè3

1CNR - IDPA, Research Group on Vegetation, Climate and Human Stratigraphy, Laboratory of Palynology and Palaeoecology, Milano (I); 2University of Basel, Institüt für Prähistorische und Naturwissenschaftliche Archäologie, Basel (CH); 3University of Milano Bicocca, Dept. of Environmental and Earth Sciences, Milano (I)

The Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) represents the coldest extreme of the last glacial cycle. During the LGM glaciers extended over large areas of the Northern and the Southern Hemispheres, building up continental ice sheets complexes (Eurasian, North-American, Patagonian, Antarctic and others (1, 2, 3, 4). Sandy deserts expanded (5, 6, 7). Globally-averaged changes describe a period of relatively low sea level decrease between 35-31 ka cal BP, a rapid fall between 31-29 ka cal BP, constant or slowly increasing ice volumes between 29-21 ka and the onset of deglaciation at ca. 21-20 ka cal BP (8). Biological proxies such as micro- and macroscopic plant remains can be used to reconstruct LGM terrestrial biomes (9). Progresses in the definition of modern pollen-climate calibration models and their application to fossil data (10) provide the chance to look at palaeoecological records not only for their power to reconstruct vegetations, but also as descriptors of past climates. We present here quantitative reconstructions of the LGM climate at the southern alpine fringe based on a high-resolution record obtained on a sediment core from Lake Fimon (23 m asl, venetian Plain, northern Italy). The core was analyzed for its palynological content; 14C AMS dates obtained on terrestrial plant remains (seeds, charcoal fragments, periderms, twigs, needles, etc.) provide a robust age-depth model which sets the analyzed sequence between ca. 30 - 12,5 ka cal BP. Mean time resolution of the palaecological record is 1 sample/180 yrs over the whole period, increasing to 1 sample/160 yrs for the LGM. Up to ca. 27,5 ka cal BP the pollen record from Lake Fimon speaks for boreal forests dominated by Pinus sylvestris/mugo (Scots/Dwarf mountain pine) covering the valley floor, the adjacent hills and possibly largely extending over the nearby venetian plain. Plant communities with Artemisia (sagebrush), Juniperus (juniper) and Larix (larch) characterized the landscapes up to ca. 17,5 ka cal BP, followed by the renewed expansion of mixed pine - birch (Betula) forests, with broadleaved temperate trees (oaks, linden, hazel and elm) thriving from the onset of the Bølling-Allerød interstadial.

SISC Sixth Annual Conference - Book of Abstract 151 Paleo and Polar Climate

In order to produce pollen-based quantitative reconstructions of January and July temperatures (Tjan and Tjul), and annual precipitation (Pann) from the Lake Fimon pollen data, the Modern Analogue Technique (MAT) was adopted. Starting from a modern calibration training set of 3019 sample sites from the larger European Modern Pollen Database (EMPD, 11), a DCA (Detrended Correspondence Analysis) gradient analysis revealed similarities between the Lake Fimon fossil spectra with modern pollen assemblages from the Euro-Siberian orobiome (Ural Mountains, southern and western Siberia). In this area, the humid semi-continental siberian climate meets with drier continental air masses, producing a mosaic of altitude and climate-depending vegetations such as taiga, hemiboreal forests, steppes, forest- steppes and tundra, recalling full-glacial plant communities of Europe (12). For each fossil pollen spectra, the 5 best modern analogues were identified among the 239 sample sites of the Euro-Siberian orobiome. Climate parameters associated to the 5 best analogues were weighted-mean according to their respective similarity coefficient and attributed to the fossil sample. The high-resolution of the palaeoecological record and of the resulting climate reconstructions allow comparison and fine-tuning with other proxy records of LGM climates at alpine and global scale. Relatively warmer Tjan reconstructed from the Fimon pollen data at 27,5 - 27,7 ka cal BP chronologically corresponds to lighter δ18O isotopic values and lower dust concentrations in the NGRIP ice core, related to Greenland Interstadial (GI) 3. A 2,5 millennia-long phase of reconstructed lower Tjan at Lake Fimon between ca. 23,8 - 26,2 ka cal BP are interpreted as the expression on land of freshwater pulses into the oceanic waters of Heinrich Event 2, set within GS3. At 22,6 ka cal BP, a positive peak in both Tjan and Tjul and Pann in the Lake Fimon record might correspond to the relative warming identified in Greenland as GI2: the minor shift among the Lake Fimon and NGRIP chronologies (300-400 years) remains within the error associated with the radiocarbon determination. Between 22,6 - 17,5 ka cal BP, reconstructed Tjan at Lake Fimon show a constantly decreasing trend; Tjul and Pann are indeed rather stable and display only minor fluctuations. A shift towards cooler Tjan begins at ca. 17,5 ka cal BP, in phase with lighter δ18O isotopic values and lower dust concentrations in the NGRIP ice core, related to Heinrich Event 1. By the time of deglacial AMOC (Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation) resumption during the first part of the Late Glacial, reconstructed climate parameters at Lake Fimon speak for warmer temperatures and increased precipitation.

References

1. Patton H., Hubbard A., Andreassen K., Auriac A., Whitehouse P.L., Stroeven A.P., Shackleton C., Winsborrow M., Heyman J., Hall A.M. (2017) - Deglaciation of the Eurasian ice sheet complex. Quaternary Science Reviews, 169: 148-172.

SISC Sixth Annual Conference - Book of Abstract 152 Paleo and Polar Climate

2. Kleman J., Jansson K., De Angelis H., Stroeven A.P., Hättestrand C., Alm G., Glasser N. (2010) - North American Ice Sheet build up during the last glacial cycle, 115-21 kyr. Quaternary Science Reviews, 29: 2036-2051. 3. Lamy F., Kaiser J., Ninnemann U., Hebbeln D., Arz H.W., Stoner J. (2004) - Antarctic timing of surface water changes off Chile and Patagonian Ice Sheet response. Science, 304: 1959-1962. 4. Ingólfsson O. (2004) - Quaternary glacial and climate history of Antarctica. In (Ehlers J. & Gibbard P.L., eds.): Quaternary glaciations extent and chronology: part II: South America, Asia, Africa, Australasia, Antarctica. Pp. 3-43. 5. Lu H., Yi S., Xu Z., Zhou L., Zeng L., Zhu F., Feng H., Dong L., Zhuo H., Yu K., Mason J., Wang X., Chen Y., Lu Q., Wu B., Dong Z., Qu J., Wang X., Guo Z. (2013) - Chinese deserts and sand fields in Last Glacial Maximum and Holocene Optimum. Chinese Science Bulletin, 58: 1-9. 6. Gasse F. (2000) - Hydrological changes in the African tropics since the Last Glacial Maximum. Quaternary Science Reviews, 19: 189-211. 7. Dupont L. (2011) - Orbital-scale vegetation change in Africa. Quaternary Science Reviews, 30: 3589-3602 8. Lambeck K., Rouby H., Purcell A., Sun Y., Sambridge M. (2014) - Sea level and global ice volumes from the Last Glacial Maximum to the Holocene. PNAS, 111(43): 15296-15303. 9. Tarasov P.E., Volkova V.S., Webb T. III, Guiot J., Andreev A.A., Bezusko L.G., Bykova G.V., Dorofeyuk N.I., Kvavadze E.V., Oipova I.M., Panova N.K., Sevastyanov D.V. (2001) - Last glacial maximum biomes reconstructed from pollen and plant macrofossils dara from northern Eurasia. Journal of Biogeography, 27: 609-620. 10. Juggins S., Birks H.J.B. (2012) - Quantitative environmental reconstructions from biological data. In (Birks et al., Eds.): Tracking environmental change using lake sediments. Data handling and numerical techniques. Chapter 14: 431-494. Springer 11. Davis B.A.S., Zanon M., Collins M., Mauri A., Bakker J., Barboni D., Barthelmes A., Beaudouin C., Birks H.J.B., Bjune A.E. et al. (2013) - The European modern pollen database (EMPD) project. Vegetation History and Archaeobotany, 22(6): 521-530. 12. Kuneš P., Pelánková B., Chytrý M., Jankovská V., Pokorný P., Petr L. (2008) - Interpretation of the last-glacial vegetation of eastern-central Europe using modern analogues from southern Siberia. Journal of Biogeography, 35: 2223-2236.

SISC Sixth Annual Conference - Book of Abstract 153

Linking Global to Regional Climate Change

Decadal climate variability across the major eastern boundary ORAL upwelling systems

G. Bonino1,2, E. Di Lorenzo3, S. Masina2,4, D. Iovino2

1Ca’Foscari University, Venice, Italy; 2Euro-Mediterranean Center on Climate Change, Bologna, Italy; 3Program in Ocean Science & Engineering, Georgia Institute of Technology, Atlanta, USA;4Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Sezione di Bologna, Italy

Detecting the drivers of the major Eastern Boundary Upwelling Systems (EBUS) is essential to understand its present variability and its past and future changes. We present a statistical analysis of a long-term ocean hindcasts from 1958 to 2015 with the global ORCA025 configuration (25 km of horizontal resolution) of NEMO general circulation model. The simulation is forced by a high resolution (25 km of resolution) product that we obtain through a statistical downscaling of the high resolution QuikSCAT winds with the large-scale wind structures from a new surface-atmospheric dataset for driving ocean sea-ice models based on Japanese 55-year atmospheric reanalysis (JRA-55). Moreover, we introduce an ensemble of passive tracers, which are released at the subsurface (150m—300m) at each EBUS from coast to 50 Km offshore. The statistics of passive tracers concentration at surface, which correspond to upwelled coastal water masses, allowed us to study the large-scale drivers of upwelling variability and trends. The simulation is found to reproduce well the seasonal cycle of upwelling intensity over all EBUS areas, with a maximum in boreal summer in the Northern Hemisphere Systems and in boreal winter in the Southern Hemisphere Systems. The common atmospheric pattern favouring upwelling (e.g., equatorward wind/wind stress, wind stress curl, and heat fluxes), with some differences

SISC Sixth Annual Conference - Book of Abstracts 154 Linking Global to Regional Climate Change

in terms of their contribution, explains the low-frequency modulations of the seasonal cycle. In particular, Benguela Upwelling System and Canary Upwelling System show long-term trends driven by wind forcing and heat fluxes, respectively. In addition, the statistical link between upwelling across the system and large-scale climate variability modes was analysed. We performed an EOF analysis of the passive tracers concentration time series in order to evaluate EBUS shared covariability. The El Niño–Southern Oscillation, represented by the first PC, exerts some influence on all the domain except on Benguela System, while Atlantic Meridional Oscillation (AMO) is the predominant modes of variability on the Atlantic Systems.

SISC Sixth Annual Conference - Book of Abstract 155 Linking Global to Regional Climate Change

Different impacts of global warming between north and south ORAL Mediterranean areas

P. Lionello1,2, L. Scarascia2

1DiSTeBA, Univ of Salento, Lecce, Italy; 2CMCC, Lecce, Italy

This contribution analyzes a large ensemble of CMIP5 global climate projections in order to link future regional climate change in the Mediterranean region and differences between north and south area to the global mean annual surface temperature change.

Warming will be particularly large in summer (approximately 50% larger than global mean annual warming) and for the land areas located north of the basin (locally up to 100% larger than global warming). Reduction of precipitation will affect all seasons in the southern Mediterranean areas, with maximum reduction for winter precipitation (-7 mm/k or -7%/k), but mostly summer in the northern Mediterranean areas (-7mm/K or -9%/K). Areas located at the northern border of the Mediterranean region will not experience a reduction of precipitation in winter.

Contrast between north and south areas will be even stronger than this for indices associated with extremes of precipitation and hydrological cycle. On this respect, it appears that climate change will significantly amplify differences between North and south regions. As global mean annual temperature increases, in the North Mediterranean the Simple Daily precipitation Intensity Index (SDII) and the total precipitation during very wet days (R95P) increase at a rate of approximately 0.1mm/K and 5mm/K, respectively, while the same indices show no relevant change in the southern Mediterranean. The maximum number of consecutive dry days (CDD) is already larger in the Southern than in the Northern Mediterranean and it is increasing faster in the former than in the latter as global warming increases (rates are about 8days/K and 5days/K) respectively. The maximum number of consecutive wet days (CWD) is larger in the northern than in the southern Mediterranean and decreasing at a similar rate (about 0.5 days/K) in both (actually the rate of decrease is slightly smaller in the south).

At difference with the response of the regional hydrological cycle extremes to global warming, changes of warm nights (TN90p) and cold days (TX10p) are similar in the North and South Mediterranean. In both areas, the increase of warm nights is dramatic, to the extent that with a 4K global warming almost

SISC Sixth Annual Conference - Book of Abstract 156 Linking Global to Regional Climate Change

all nights would classified as warm nights and there will be no cold days (definitions of cold days and warm nights are based on the 1961-1990 reference period.

References

1. Lionello P , Scarascia L (2018) The relation between climate change in the Mediterranean region and global warming. Reg Environ Change 18: 1481-193 doi:10.1007/s10113-018-1290-1

SISC Sixth Annual Conference - Book of Abstract 157 Linking Global to Regional Climate Change

Does Dynamical Downscaling Perform well in Simulation of

ORAL Indian Summer Monsoon Rainfall: An Inter-Comparison RCM Vs Driving GCMs

P. Kumar1, P. Parth Sarthi1, S. Kumar1

1Centre for Environmental Sciences, Central University of South Bihar, India

Climate models are widely used for global and regional assessment of climate change. However, the reliability of individual models simulation needs to be evaluated and assessed. Therefore, the present study is aimed to assess the ability of Regional Climate Models (RCMs) of the COordinated Regional Climate Downscaling EXperiment (CORDEX) and their driving Global Climate Models (GCMs) of Coupled Models Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5) in simulating the Indian Summer Monsoon Rainfall (ISMR) over the land points of India for the time period of 1979-2005. The assessment of CORDEX- RCMs driven by boundary conditions from GCMs is necessary to know up-to what extent; the RCMs are able to simulate the ISMR over India. The spatial and temporal characteristic of ISMR is carried out for past periods and finally leading to possible future projected changes over the rainfall homogeneous region of India. The study reveals that REgional MOdel REMO2009(MPI) and its driving GCM MPI-ESM- LR seems to be close to the observed rainfall of Global Precipitation Climatology Centre (GPCC). Further, it is noticed that the bias (either wet or dry) in RCM REMO2009(MPI) and GCMs MPI-ESM-LR and GFDL-CM3 is of comparable amplitude. Hence these models are considered for the future projection of ISMR for a period of 2016-2045 under Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) 4.5 (medium scenario) and 8.5 (higher scenario) at 99% and 95% confidence levels. In the simulation of REMO2009 (MPI) and its driving GCM (MPI-ESM-LR) under RCPs 4.5 & 8.5, an excess of rainfall may be possible over the parts of Peninsular India (PI) and West Central India (WCI) while a deficit over the North West India (NWI). The simulation of the GCM, GFDL-CM3 depicts an excess of rainfall over NWI, PI and deficit over WCI under both emission scenarios. This study would provide a significant aspect for framing and developing the future strategy for impact assessment in agriculture, hydrology (water resources), and human health.

SISC Sixth Annual Conference - Book of Abstract 158 Linking Global to Regional Climate Change

Remote sources of predictability for the Mediterranean ORAL climate

M. Benassi1, P. Ruggieri1, S. Materia1, S. Gualdi1,2

1Fondazione Centro Euro-Mediterraneo sui Cambiamenti Climatici, Italy; 2Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Italy

Several drivers are known to be linked to climate variability on the Euro-Mediterranean sector. In this work we focus on processes acting on different temporal and spatial scales, potentially affecting the atmospheric circulation over the Mediterranean region, especially during the winter season: the El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) teleconnection, and the Siberian snow cover state. Here we present a set of idealized experiments accounting for each of these drivers, designed to isolate the signal due to these forcings and to investigate the mechanisms responsible in shaping such responses. Different mechanisms have been proposed to illustrate ENSO teleconnection over the Euro-Mediterranean sector, involving the propagation of atmospheric planetary waves and changes in the zonal and meridional atmospheric circulation. The background sea surface temperature state may indeed influence these processes and therefore our goal is to establish the role of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation phase in modulating the ENSO fingerprint. The Siberian snow cover in Autumn has been found to be a potential driver of winter mid-latitude circulation through the large scale adjustment induced by the local surface forcing. Moreover, a constructive interference between snow cover and Arctic sea ice state has been hypothesized. Here we analyze the local and the remote processes linked to the combination of these forcings, with a special focus on the interaction between troposphere and stratosphere. This process- oriented approach allows to advance the understanding on the connections between remote drivers and regional responses, enhancing a deeper insight on the key mechanisms driving the circulation over the Mediterranean sector on a number of different time scales. This enhanced knowledge may contribute in a crucial way to fully exploit the predictability for the Euro-Mediterranean region inherent in the considered processes.

SISC Sixth Annual Conference - Book of Abstract 159 Linking Global to Regional Climate Change

The North Atlantic Oscillation and its effect on European ORAL precipitation in different climates

M. Hamouda1, C. Pasquero1, E. Tziperman2

1Milano Bicocca University; 2Harvard University

The position of the storm track and the seasonal precipitation over Europe are known to be linked to the phase of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). Recently, extreme precipitations have also been shown to be influenced by the NAO (Casanueva et al., 2014). In this study, present day NAO mode is correlated with extreme precipitation events over Europe using reanalysis data and very high resolution regional atmospheric models which resolve the convective scale. Seasonality of the correlation between NAO and precipitation extremes is also discussed. Moreover, climate projections are obtained considering the RCP8.5 forcing scenario in the CMIP5 extended simulations to deduce the predicted changes in NAO pattern, intensity, and frequency under significantly warmer climate conditions. It is shown that different models predict different changes to the NAO signal; the analysis of these models and of the global climatic state that they predict sheds light onto the mechanisms at the base of the NAO variability.

References

1. Casanueva et al. Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 18, 709–725, 2014

SISC Sixth Annual Conference - Book of Abstract 160 Linking Global to Regional Climate Change

The relation between the global Hadley Circulation and the ORAL climate in the Mediterranean Region

A.L. Scambiati1, P. Lionello1, R. d'Agostino2

1Disteba, University of Salento, Lecce, Italy; 2Max Plank Institute for Meteorology, Hamburg, Germany

This contribution aims to find the relationship between the global Hadley Circulation (HC) and the climate in the Mediterranean region. We relate the circulation over the Mediterranean basin, described by the vertical velocity and the position of the Northern Edge (NE) of the HC. The NE of the HC is estimated adopting some different criteria: Outgoing Longwave Radiation, (OLR), Precipitation minus Evaporation (P-E), Mean Sea Level Pressure (MSLP) and Streamfunction ( ). The correlation between the NE of the HC and the local values of vertical velocity and total precipitation𝜓𝜓 shows a substantial influence of the HC on the circulation and climate over the Mediterranean region, in particular a northward movement of HC provokes an increase of the anticyclonic circulation overt the eastern part of the basin and a general decrease of precipitation.

SISC Sixth Annual Conference - Book of Abstract 161 Linking Global to Regional Climate Change

The response of Himalayan glaciers to intrinsic climate ORAL variability: Little Ice Age (LIA) onwards

R. Kumar1, M.C. Sharma1, P. Kumar2, S. Chopra2, R. Kumar3, S. Bhadwal3

1 Jawaharlal Nehru University, New Delhi, India; 2 Inter University Accelerator Centre, New Delhi, India, 3 Department of Geography, School of Earth, Environment and Space Studies, Central University of Haryana

The global climate has undergone many unpredictable oscillations of different magnitude and frequencies throughout the late Quaternary period. Large number of Climatic Scientists have now agreed on the visible warming trend of climate in last decades. The Himalayan environ, with glacier being one of the highly sensitive parameters, provides an indispensable laboratory for evaluating and understanding climate variability in space over a longer temporal scale in the highly vulnerable areas such sub-tropics. Sensitivity of the Himalayan glaciers towards climate change is relatively higher, due to high temperature in the foreland basin during summer months, high ablation gradient, complex and variant precipitation. Glacier records can work as yard-sticks to estimate changes over decadal, centennial and millennial scales, as glacier response time to climatic change may vary on long scales depending upon the size of a glacier and magnitude of change in climate. Glacier responses are the complex interplay of the micro climatic variability, topography, latitude, altitude, slope, accumulation and ablation gradient, surface characteristics of glacier, glacier size and aspect etc. The complex interaction of various climatic and non- climatic factors limit scientists to draw a linear relationship between glaciers behavior and climate change in the recent years. In general, post Little Ice Age (LIA), the Himalayan glaciers may have undergone negative mass balance to show retreat of glacier terminus now. But the nonconformity of Little Ice Age (LIA) terminus in front of small size glaciers viz a viz. series of subsequent end moraines in front of large glaciers in the Himalayan glacier raise a questions as to whether the timing of Little Ice Age (LIA) and synchroes of global and other local climatic chronologies. Currently glacier within the same basin show varied by behavior for reasons unknown as yet. Comprehensive and open ended studies are required to understand this complex behavior and sensitivity of glaciers either towards the climatic or non-climatic determinants. Insufficient and fragmentary meteorological data has limited, which to some extent can be substituted for a decade and a half by MODIS LST Data.

SISC Sixth Annual Conference - Book of Abstract 162

Climate Services: Role, Application, Value, Challenges and Opportunities for Market Development

Assessing the Value of Climate Services: A Case Study for the

ORAL Agricultural Sector

E. Delpiazzo1,2, F. Bosello1,3, S. Dasgupta1,4, S. Bagli5 , D. Broccoli5

1CMCC; 2University Ca' Foscari Venice, Department of Environmental Sciences, Informatics and Statistics; 3Università Statale Milano, Department of Environmental Science and Policy; 4University Ca' Foscari Venice, Economics Department; 5GECOSISTEMA s.r.l.

The widespread influence of climate on the major agendas (i.e. 2030 Agenda, Paris Agreement, Sendai Framework) means that provision of climate services can improve the resilience of communities, critical infrastructure, businesses, and ecosystems to climate impacts. The demand for accessible, tailored, and accurate services will continue to grow in the future, driven in part by concerns over climate change and the occurrence of extreme events (such as heat waves, storms, flooding, and drought). It will also reflect the need to respond to new human-induced vulnerabilities such as the growth of megacities and coastal developments.

Climate services provide science-based and user-specific information for managing the risks and exploiting the opportunities created by climate variability and climate change. They assist policymakers and decision-makers responsible for climate-sensitive sectors to take practical actions based on the best available climate related information (from climatic as well as other relevant scientific and socio-economic

SISC Sixth Annual Conference - Book of Abstracts 163 Climate Services: Role, Application, Value, Challenges and Opportunities for Market Development

research). Climate services can thus help societies to become more resilient and to cope with the growing impacts of climate change. To support the development of climate services and mainstream their utilization, it needs to identify clear benefits for final users and profits for the providers. Although assessing the societal benefits of climate service has been established in the existing literature, assessing the profits for the provider remains a challenging issue. A coherent understanding of the economic and social benefits of climate services is a necessary step towards the complete exploitation of their potential positive effects on societies. A robust and transparent evaluation procedure could benefit the dissemination process of climate services and generate a measure of economic value, the major output of this paper, can be easily understood by both final users and developers. The evaluation could lead to an increased likelihood of adoption and use of climate services in investment planning and decision- making. At the same time, it is also important that climate service providers have a clear understanding of the economic value associated to their products. This allows them to modify and tailor climate services to maximize the final users’ gains from their adoption. This creates a feedback loop, which ultimately strengthens the collaboration between developers and users and helps the evolution of the climate services. Other aspects of the importance of valuing climate services are specifically related to the nature of the service providers that could be either public or private. In both cases, aim of the evaluation process is to monetize the “market” value of the climate service

In this paper, we consider a specific climate service, called “Climate proof Strategy Tool”, which informs water management authorities on future trends in water availability. This tool allows a climate informed decision making at the water authority level on developing its irrigation system to cope with climate change. It also provides forecasts on future water availability in three time-horizons (short - 2020, medium - 2050, and long-run - 2080) to the Romagna Land Reclamation and Irrigation Authority. The tool delivers an indicator that, based on expected precipitation, evaporation, and crop irrigation needs, assesses water stress. This is a crucial element in evaluating the economic feasibility of different adaptation strategies ranging from investments to improve the irrigation infrastructure (e.g. increasing its productivity, expanding it) to the adoption of softer measures, such as governance measures. This case study located in the Castiglione district (Romagna, Italy) focuses on a set of five different cultivated crops, namely horticultural crops, kiwi, persimmon, peach, and seed chards, that represent the most widespread cultivations in the district, and three different scenarios (i.e. RCP2.6, RCP4.5, and RCP8.5).

The conceptual framework applied for the evaluation of this climate service is that of quantifying the value of information, assessed within the decision process of a decision maker with the rational objective to maximize her/his expected utility, or payoff. The choice of this method is based on the fact that the

SISC Sixth Annual Conference - Book of Abstract 164 Climate Services: Role, Application, Value, Challenges and Opportunities for Market Development

value of the service is equivalent to the value of the information conveyed by the service to the final users of the service. The core idea behind the evaluation process is to compare the outcomes of a decision taken with limited information, i.e. in an “uncertain environment”, against the outcomes of a decision taken with perfect information, which can also be defined as a situation of full knowledge and without uncertainty. The difference in the payoffs (monetized gains or losses) of these two situations is the value of perfect information. This value also represents the maximum cost a decision maker would be willing to pay to obtain any information in advance reducing the uncertainty of the outcome of her/his decision, as no kind of information can be “better” than full information.

The quantitative example provided in this paper is useful to explore the potentials of assessing the value of a climate service and of this methodology, specifically. According to theory, the example demonstrates that the value of the information is always greater or equal to zero but its value is strictly dependent on the final user tailored nature of the approach. In this case, the methodology provides two critical pieces of information. First, it delivers an economic value of the benefits of the service and secondly, as it is based on the decision theory approach, it informs the final user about the best rational action to undertake in the future based on the climate service projections. Specifically, this example suggests that under different RCPs the climate service has a different value. The main reason behind this is that when costs of climate change (in this case in terms of agricultural production) are particularly high, the climate service can provide better predictions on the probability regarding the future states of the world and at the same time can suggest the best action to cope with these impacts. This is evident when we compare the outcomes under different counterfactuals; the highest the climate change impacts, the highest the economic value of the climate service.

SISC Sixth Annual Conference - Book of Abstract 165 Climate Services: Role, Application, Value, Challenges and Opportunities for Market Development

A systemized inventory of drivers, obstacles and mechanisms

POSTER affecting the uptake of climate services

A. Perrels1, A. Harjanne1, K. Pilli-Sihvola1, V. Nurmi1, A. Damm2, J. Köberl2, J. Mysiak3, F. Larosa3, R. Hamaker-Taylor4, R. Giordano5, R. Mattarese5, I. Portoghese5, J. Cortekar6, K. Lamich6, P. Stegmaier7, K. Visscher7, P. Pawelek8

1Finnish Meteorological Institute, Helsinki, Finland; 2Joanneum Research, Graz, Austria; 3CMCC, Venice, Italy; 4Acclimatise Ltd, UK; 5CNR-IRSA, Bari, Italy; 6HZG-GERICS, Hamburg, Germany; 7University of Twente, Enschede, The Netherlands; 8UnternehmerTUM, Munich, Germany

The development of the use of climate services has received increasing attention in recent years. Despite a flurry of survey-based studies [1,2] the body of knowledge of why and how has been developing quite slowly, with a tendency to remain descriptive. The H2020 EU-MACS study has the ambition to add more analysis to this body of studies. This is achieved by employing more intensive interaction formats and by underpinning the assessments with economic, innovation and organisational theories and related tools. In general, the judgement has been that more user-oriented climate services development approaches need to be developed and adopted.

The factors influencing uptake are allocated to three domains, being supply side, demand side and matching (transaction), whereas also links between these factors and the (market form or business model induced) dispositions of several categories of actors are assessed (figure).

What results is a layered impact propagation scheme of related factors, which allows to assess qualitatively how measures to promote uptake of climate services have to positioned and often also packaged to get more effective, whereas also necessary preconditions for successfully addressing some factors get better identified.

This approach can also be translated into quantitative method aimed at assessing adoption rates based on benefit-cost ratios. This approach will be presented in a separate poster.

SISC Sixth Annual Conference - Book of Abstract 166 Climate Services: Role, Application, Value, Challenges and Opportunities for Market Development

Another set of results concerns tools supporting climate services specification, provision and adoption in focus sectors, such as urban planning and tourism. We will present some of them, including business model profiling and social network analysis.

References

1. Máñez, M., Zölch, T., Cortekar, J. (2014): Mapping of Climate Service Providers – Theoretical Foundation and Empirical Results: A German Case Study, http://www.climate-service-center.de/imperia 2. Vaughan, C., Dessai, S. (2014): Climate services for society: Origins, institutional arrangements, and design elements for an evaluation framework, Wiley Interdiscip. Rev. Clim. Chang., Vol. 5, No. 5, pp. 587-603, doi:10.1002/wcc.290 3. Lourenço, T. C., Swart, R., Goosen, H., Street, R. (2015): The rise of demand-driven climate services, in: Nature Climate Change, Vol. 6, No. 1, pp. 1-2, doi:10.1038/nclimate2836

SISC Sixth Annual Conference - Book of Abstract 167 Climate Services: Role, Application, Value, Challenges and Opportunities for Market Development

Climate Smart Hydropower Tool ORAL

P. Mazzoli1, S. Bagli1

1GECOSISTEMA s.r.l.

Discharge forecast and related water availability plays a critical role in management and planning of water resources. This knowledge influences decision-making process in water demanding activities such as environment protection, drought risk management, hydropower generation and in general water supply sectors. In this context, an operational web-cloud-based and open-source forecast system applicable to a wide spectrum of geographically and hydrologically different basins, flexible enough to manage a wide range of variables related to discharge generation, could play a key role in the correct management of water resources Smart Climate Hydropower Tool is a web service intended to support Hydropower energy producers facing the problem of energy forecast. Their decision making processes (either concerning plants managing issues or energy trading) will benefit from enhanced seasonal energy forecasts. We embedded Artificial intelligence algorithms (supervised learning techniques) at the core of the service to feed energy forecast with available state of art seasonal forecast, and guide users through a user friendly web interface. Working in tied connection with end users for an effective codesign process, developed service will exploit value of seasonal forecast, clearly show performances and added value of the provided energy forecasts and ideally pave the road for highly scalable and worldwide replicable similar services. SCHT is a web-based climate service aimed at supporting hydropower suitability and production assessment. The climate service intends to improve the decision-making process for two objectives: a) energy production and trading b) hydropower management energy operations. Also, the service identified the regional and national institutional settings, as well as regional environmental agencies (ARPAs) as potential users The forecast system relies on data driven artificial intelligence (AI) algorithms, partly already applied in published research (Callegari, et al., 2015, De Gregorio et. al 2017) with encouraging results. Currently SCHT exploit a wide set of AI algorithm from machine learning-ML predictors (support vector regression- SVR and gaussian process-GP) to deep learning (LSTM and RNN). Major operative advantages of AI with respect to mechanistic hydrological models include limited to none a priori knowledge of involved physical phenomena, high level of flexibility when managing

SISC Sixth Annual Conference - Book of Abstract 168 Climate Services: Role, Application, Value, Challenges and Opportunities for Market Development

heterogeneous sets of variables related to discharge generation, and quick setup time of the forecast system. The tool is actually developed under EU H2020 funded project called CLARA (EU FP7 project No 730482) coordinated by CMCC (http://www.clara-project.eu// ) and with the support of Enel Green- Power.

SISC Sixth Annual Conference - Book of Abstract 169 Climate Services: Role, Application, Value, Challenges and Opportunities for Market Development

CLIME service: the tailored tool for climate analysis POSTER

G. Barbato1, A.L. Zollo1,2, V. Villani1, P. Mercogliano1,2, A. Reder1

1CMCC Euro Mediterranean Centre on Climate Change, Regional Models and geo-Hydrological Impacts; 2CIRA Italian Aerospace Research Centre, Meteorology Laboratory

CLIME is a horizontal climate service under development within the CLARA - Climate forecast enabled knowledge services - project (funded by European Commission, Horizon 2020) in order to provide high level analyses for different types of observations and simulated climate data. Its main goal is to permit the management of high resolution climate data also for evaluation of the impact of climate change over geographical domains having local, national and continental extension. Clime is a horizontal service because it includes many different vertical and very specific applications, as for example, the evaluation of effects of climate changes on the expected patterns of floods, drought, landslides, heat waves, health and many others sectors.

The release of CLIME service is constituted by a web flexible platform, whose main functionality are: storage of massive quantity of climate data; flexible system for temporal and spatial filtering; elaboration of different statistical analysis (e.g. time series, trend, ETCCDI extreme indices, significance test, seasonal cycle, ensemble mean and spread, climate anomalies); visualization of results through temporal and statistical plots or spatially referenced maps; possibility to include additional analyses, also directly by end users, thanks to the capability of CLIME to manage Matlab executables and R code. The new CLIME service, included in the framework of CLARA project, concerns the development of an innovative service using the EURO-CORDEX program climate projections at the highest resolution currently available (about 12 km) and the different observational dataset (e.g. E-OBS gridded dataset, EURO4M dataset or regional/local station data) for the reference data. Clime is supported by an Import Data Module for the storage in a Geodatabase of simulated and observed climate data, available in the several format adopted by end users. The CLIME engine can quickly manage massive quantity of data performing the required analyses by own tools (C#) or by integrated pre-existing tools developed by users in different languages (e.g. Matlab exe, R packages…). CLIME is a useful tool for the validation and analysis of data (observed and simulated), but it also includes techniques to reduce the climate models bias and to manage different

SISC Sixth Annual Conference - Book of Abstract 170 Climate Services: Role, Application, Value, Challenges and Opportunities for Market Development

observation formats. This climate service automatically performs the following operations: it processes the user’s requirement provided via web; it performs the required analyses; it allows the download of the outputs (table, graphics, maps) through web interface. Finally, CLIME can provide analysed climate data, for different scopes, to many users with different skills and background with a positive impact on the current cost and time requested for climate data elaboration. It also guarantees the high quality of the analysis because it is development by an expert team of climate change researchers.

CLIME service has already been adopted in many scientific and consultancy activities, providing data for Consultancy Company, Engineers, Researchers and public administration. For example it can supports public local administration in an easier integration of climate change conditions and effects into plans and programs, such as Strategic Environmental Assessment (SEA) of the Operative Plan, Sustainable Energy Action Plan (SEAP).

CLIME users are various so also the services developed have different objectives. In the case of not climate data experts, our goal is to develop a kind of “controlled application” avoiding an incorrect use of climate data and to enlarge the community of climate data users, which can carry out climate analysis autonomously on areas and variables of interest. While, in the case of climate data experts, our goal is to integrate their specific analysis within our climate service also giving them the availability of more advanced and complete analysis. Generally our expert users have several programming skills (e.g. software GIS, Excel, R, Matlab or any statistical software) so they are able to use outputs of our application for their analysis (e.g. spatially referenced maps or csv file that contains time series, trend, seasonal cycle, spread). Moreover, for users that have not advanced programming skills, the results of climate data analysis will be available as temporal or statistical plot.

Therefore, interested users are both public (cities, municipalities) and private (firms, associations). Currently CMCC has a dedicated email ([email protected]) and a webpage presenting the CLIME service with the goal to collect interest and requirements for its development (https://www.cmcc.it/it/software/clime).

SISC Sixth Annual Conference - Book of Abstract 171 Climate Services: Role, Application, Value, Challenges and Opportunities for Market Development

Designing climate services for flood risk management: assisted learning algorithms for the validation of a synthetic POSTER probabilistic loss model

M. Amadio1

1Centro Euro-Mediterraneo sui Cambiamenti Climatici, RAAS, Venezia, Italia

Flood risk management generally relies on assessments performed using simplified flood loss models in which water depth is the only variable employed to predict potential damage (stage-damage curves). Such uni-variable flood loss models carry important uncertainty, especially if they are not calibrated and validated specifically for the areas where they are employed. Multi-variable models, on the other hand, account for a larger number of variables related to hazard and exposure features. that can influence flood losses. Hence MV models are potentially more robust when extensive datasets are available. In this paper we collected a comprehensive dataset related to three recent major flood events in Northern Italy, including flood hazard features (depth, velocity and duration), buildings characteristics (size, type, value) and declared damage records (structure and content). Our objective is to identify a generalised model that can be applied to assess potential damage to residential buildings within the case study area. First, a tree-based regression approach is used to assess the relative importance of each explanatory variable on the damage output. Artificial Neural Network is applied to test the fit of the derived multivariable model. Then, a validation test is performed over an existing multivariable synthetic flood damage model developed for Italy (INSYDE) to evaluate its reliability. Finally, the results from the INSYDE model are compared with those obtained from the empirically-derived UV and MV models. Our results provide important insights about the choice of the modelling approach and the transferability potential of flood damage model.

SISC Sixth Annual Conference - Book of Abstract 172 Climate Services: Role, Application, Value, Challenges and Opportunities for Market Development

Environmental policy and international trade: new evidence OSTER

P from structural gravity

L. Bonacorsi1,2, E. Verdolini1,2

1Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei; 2Centro Euro-Mediterraneo sui Cambiamenti Climatici

We estimate the impact of environmental policy on imports and exports for 14 manufacturing industries in 40 countries over the period 1996-2011 with a novel approach, consistent with structural gravity (Anderson and Yotov, 2012; Fally, 2015). Specifically, we employ a two-stage procedure whereby we first derive importer and exporter fixed effects from a set of sector-level gravity equations, and then estimate how policy stringency affects such country-sector-time specific determinants of international trade, conditional on other relevant covariates. We follow the procedure suggested in Brunel and Levinson (2013) and use sectoral level data on emissions from the WIOD (2013) to compute country- year proxies of environmental policy stringency, which we weigh by an indicator of sectoral "environmental dependence" built using pre-sample information. This allows us to test whether the impact of environmental policy on trade varies according to the level of environmental dependence at the sector level, a' la Rajan and Zingales (1998). Our preliminary results show that stricter environmental policy is not associated with higher imports from dirty industries, and that laxer environmental policy is not associated with higher exports of dirty goods. Both these results are not compatible with the Pollution Haven Hypothesis (PHH), but rather seem to favor the hypotheses put forward by Porter (1991).

SISC Sixth Annual Conference - Book of Abstract 173 Climate Services: Role, Application, Value, Challenges and Opportunities for Market Development

Estimating uptake probability of climate services based on a

ORAL benefit-cost ratio

A. Perrels1, V. Nurmi1, K. Pilli-Sihvola1

1Finnish Meteorological Institute, Helsinki, Finland

The development of the use of climate services has received increasing attention in recent years. Despite a flurry of survey based studies [1,2] the body of knowledge of why and how has been developing quite slowly, with a tendency to remain descriptive. The H2020 EU-MACS study has the ambition to add more analysis to this body of studies.

One of the insights is that it is a complex of factors which affects uptake, in which indeed some factors may be more impactful than others, but remediation of shortfall in uptake of the climate services will need to address several factors simultaneously to really make a difference. Even though there is a lack of data, the judgement of the effectiveness of various policies and measures and of innovations would be certainly be helped by quantitative approaches for estimating uptake probability in relation to variation of several arguments.

Thanks to the in-depth analysis of obstacles, drivers and mechanisms affecting the uptake it is possible to construct an exploratory model, in which the various factors can be represented as cost-cutters or revenue boosters. The result is a benefit-cost ratio explained by a set of factors.

The challenge of assessing net benefits of climate services is essentially more complicated than for weather services, especially if it concerns long term (adaptation oriented) climate services. For weather services a relatively straightforward representation of the value chain and the related information chain can already provide an effective model, based on information decay [3]. For seasonal forecasts verification is still possible, even though time lags are long, yet for long term climate services that is not anymore possible. Nevertheless, e.g. cross-verification (Räisänen) provides some evidence in this respect.

SISC Sixth Annual Conference - Book of Abstract 174 Climate Services: Role, Application, Value, Challenges and Opportunities for Market Development

In the poster we will show some first explorations of the envisaged uptake model, with particular reference to the financial sector and tourism. For both sectors we have conducted more in-depth questionnaires including willingness-to-pay aspects.

References

4. Máñez, M., Zölch, T., Cortekar, J. (2014): Mapping of Climate Service Providers – Theoretical Foundation and Empirical Results: A German Case Study, http://www.climate-service-center.de/imperia 5. Vaughan, C., Dessai, S. (2014): Climate services for society: Origins, institutional arrangements, and design elements for an evaluation framework, Wiley Interdisciplinary Review (WIRE) Climate Change, Vol. 5, No. 5, pp. 587-603, doi:10.1002/wcc.290 6. Nurmi, P., Perrels, A., Nurmi, V. (2013), Expected impacts and value of improvements in weather forecasting on the road transport sector, Meteorological Applications, Vol.20, pp.217 – 223., DOI: 10.1002/met.1399

SISC Sixth Annual Conference - Book of Abstract 175 Climate Services: Role, Application, Value, Challenges and Opportunities for Market Development

Mapping the landscape of Climate Services: A Network

ORAL Approach

F. Larosa1,2, J. Mysiak2,3

1Ca' Foscari University; 2Euro-Mediterranean Centre on Climate Change; 3Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei

According to the European Roadmap of Climate Services (2015), climate services are the “transformation of climate-related data into customized products such as projections, forecasts, information, trends, economic analysis, assessments (including technology assessment), counselling on best practices, development and evaluation of solutions and any other service in relation to climate that may be of use for the society at large”. Research has proved climate services are useful in supporting decision-making in agriculture, urban planning, health and tourism among others. In recent years, a growing number of initiatives at both European and international level have stimulated the creation of a vibrant community: World Climate Conference-3 (2009), the Climate Services Partnership (2011), the first International Conference on Climate Services (2011), the establishment of the Global Framework of Climate Services (2012), the launch of the European Roadmap for Climate Services (2015), the creation of the Climate Services for Resilient Development Partnership (2017). Given these efforts, it is now legitimate to assess how networks of researchers and institutions operate and to tackle the efficiency of the existing system. Existing literature typically employs a case study approach and often lacks a quantitative, global perspective. However, previous works have highlighted a widespread confusion on best practices, definitions and methods, proving the need for a systematisation of efforts in this emerging field. The purpose of this study is to map the landscape of climate innovation, by identifying the structural properties of the research on climate services in Europe and abroad. We use a bibliometric sample of 330 published records downloaded from Scopus database and we undercover who the main actors, institutions and countries are. We then investigate the structural properties of the network in which agents operate, performing a Social Network Analysis. We use a Principal Component Analysis (PCA) of 35 centrality measures to understand the contribution of different dimensions to the network. Finally, we analyse the content of the abstracts, detecting where the most pressing issues are and how interests have changed overtime. Our work contributes to existing literature on climate services by providing a comprehensive quali-quantitative framework. Furthermore, it offers a dynamic assessment

SISC Sixth Annual Conference - Book of Abstract 176 Climate Services: Role, Application, Value, Challenges and Opportunities for Market Development

of the state of the art of climate innovation. Exploring how research networks operate and where poles of innovation are fills an existing knowledge gap and opens the debate around the efficiency of the system in place. Results prove climate services are shifting from mitigation to adaptation and multidisciplinary topics, moving towards a user-centered perspective. At network level, three clusters are describing the network: Met Offices and English-speaking countries are dominating the market. At author level, the network is split in three clusters, mainly described by distance and neighbourhood-based centrality measures. The research environment is relatively mature, but characterised by very few top performers capable of connecting the network.

References

1. Archambault, É. and Gagné, É. V. (2004) The Use of Bibliometrics in the Social Sciences and Humanities. 2. Aria, M. and Cuccurullo, C. (2017) ‘bibliometrix: An R-tool for comprehensive science mapping analysis’, Journal of Informetrics. 3. Bruno Soares, M., Alexander, M. and Dessai, S. (2017) ‘Sectoral use of climate information in Europe: A synoptic overview’, Climate Services. 4. Directorate-General for Research and Innovation, E. C. (2015) ‘European roadmap for Climate Services’, in. Brussels: European Commission. 5. Jones, L. et al. (2017) ‘Constraining and enabling factors to using long-term climate information in decision-making’ 6. Larosa, F. and Perrels, A. (2017) ASSESSMENT OF THE EXISTING RESOURCING AND QUALITY ASSURANCE OF CURRENT CLIMATE SERVICES Grant agreement 730500 EU-MACS European Market for Climate Services Deliverable 1.2. 7. Lechthaler, F. and Vinogradova, A. (2017) ‘The climate challenge for agriculture and the value of climate services: Application to coffee-farming in Peru’, European Economic Review. 8. Li, Y., Giuliani, M. and Castelletti, A. (2017) ‘A coupled human–natural system to assess the operational value of weather and climate services for agriculture’ 9. Lindberg, F. et al. (2018) ‘Urban Multi-scale Environmental Predictor (UMEP): An integrated tool for city-based climate services’, Environmental Modelling and Software. 10. Trochim, W. M. and McLinden, D. (2017) ‘Introduction to a special issue on concept mapping’. Evaluation and Program Planning. Pergamon, 60, pp. 166–175. 11. Vaughan, C. et al. (2016) ‘Identifying research priorities to advance climate services’, Climate Services. 12. Vaughan, C. and Dessai, S. (2014) ‘Climate services for society: Origins, institutional arrangements, and design elements for an evaluation framework’, Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews: Climate Change, 5(5), pp. 587–603. 13. Wang, B. et al. (2014) ‘An overview of climate change vulnerability: a bibliometric analysis based on Web of Science database’, Natural Hazards, 74(3), pp. 1649–1666. 14. Zare-Farashbandi, F., Geraei, E. and Siamaki, S. (2014) ‘Study of co-authorship network of papers in the Journal of Research in Medical Sciences using social network analysis.’, Journal of research in medical sciences: the official journal of Isfahan University of Medical Sciences. Wolters Kluwer -- Medknow Publications, 19(1), pp. 41–6.

SISC Sixth Annual Conference - Book of Abstract 177 Climate Services: Role, Application, Value, Challenges and Opportunities for Market Development

MEDiterranean Services Chain based On climate PrEdictions ORAL

S. Gualdi, L. Caron2, S. Corti3, E. Rodriguez-Camino4, L. Batté5, P. Bertuzzi6, S. Vannitsem7, A. Lafitte8

1Centro Euro-Mediterraneo sui Cambiamenti Climatici (Italy); 2Barcelona Supercomputing Centre (Spain); 3Istituto di Scienze dell'Atmosfera e del Clima - CNR (Italy); 4Agencia Estatal de Meteorología (Spain); 5Meteo- France (France); 6Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique (France); 7Royal Meteorological Institute of Belgium (Belgium); 8Plan Blue (France)

The World Climate Research Programme coordinates international research efforts devoted to improving forecast capabilities at seasonal to decadal timescales. In the Mediterranean region, several initiatives (e.g. CLIMRUN, EUPORIAS) have developed methods and tools for creating prototypes of climate services addressing users’ needs in specific sectors, whereas the purpose of the Mediterranean Climate Outlook Forum is to satisfy the high demand for user-oriented operational climate information. In this talk, we illustrate the main feature of an international project (MEDSCOPE), funded in the framework of the ERA–NET Consortium “European Research Area for Climate Services” (ERA4CS). MEDSCOPE aims at improving climate forecast capabilities and related services on seasonal-to-decadal timescales. The strategy is based on exploiting the range of existing datasets of climate observations and forecasts to improve our understanding of sources and mechanisms of predictability. This is complemented by targeted sensitivity experiments focusing on key drivers of Mediterranean climate variability. Improved process understanding serves as a basis to develop innovative empirical forecasting systems as well as novel process-based methods for bias correction, downscaling and optimal combination of sources of information, all of which will be publicly released via a toolbox. Extracting and tailoring the best information to produce climate services will fill the existing gaps between climate model output and applicable services. Special efforts is devoted to sensitivity of climate predictions to models’ climate drift, to spatial shifts of variability patterns and to the selection of sub-ensembles representative of the needs of specific applications. The added value provided by MEDSCOPE to climate services will be assessed for various sectors with high societal impact, e.g. renewable energy, hydrology and agriculture and forestry. MEDSCOPE will deliver top-quality climate information, supported by cutting-edge research,

SISC Sixth Annual Conference - Book of Abstract 178 Climate Services: Role, Application, Value, Challenges and Opportunities for Market Development

tailored for climate services in the Mediterranean and will empower their use by the Mediterranean user community.

SISC Sixth Annual Conference - Book of Abstract 179 Climate Services: Role, Application, Value, Challenges and Opportunities for Market Development

The RUS service: fostering innovation, technology

POSTER development and transfer

B. Bonneval

Serco Italy SpA

Copernicus, previously known as GMES (Global Monitoring for Environment and Security), is the European Programme for the establishment of a European capacity for Earth Observation. ESA is in charge of the development of a new family of missions called Sentinels specifically for the operational needs of the Copernicus programme. Each Sentinel mission is based on a constellation of two satellites to fulfil revisit and coverage requirements, providing robust datasets for Copernicus Services. These missions carry a range of technologies, such as radar and multi-spectral imaging instruments for land, ocean and atmospheric monitoring. Eighteen Sentinel missions are already operational, approved or planned according to the CEOS (Committee on Earth Observation Satellites) EO Database (version January 2018).

Offering systematic global coverage for free (and with an observational continuity ensured for decades), Copernicus satellites promise to be a game-changer for geospatial studies and applications, however, with a download speed of 10Mbps (average connection speed of the EU), more than 11 years would be needed to download one month of Copernicus satellites observations (not to mention the computing power needed for processing). In addition, there are “knowledge barriers” preventing the adoption of such data by the users.

With the purpose to contribute overcoming these problems, the RUS - Research and User Support for Sentinel Core Products - service (funded by the EC and managed by ESA) started operations in October 2017. Users are granted with Virtual Machines (VMs), providing processing power and tools to handle the data. The service, offered at no cost, is run within a scalable cloud environment allowing to remotely store and process these datasets. Integral part of the solution is the exploitation and adaptation to the platform of Free and Open-Source Software (FOSS). In addition, technical and scientific support (e.g. expertise, training sessions, webinars, etc.) is provided to simplify the exploitation of Copernicus data

SISC Sixth Annual Conference - Book of Abstract 180 Climate Services: Role, Application, Value, Challenges and Opportunities for Market Development

resources. The aim of this contribution is to illustrate how users can request and benefit from this free service which may be of extreme interest for the communities involved in climate change studies.

RUS: COMPLETING THE SATELLITE OFFER WITH PROCESSING POWER AND EXPERTISE

To complete the free data offer also with processing power and the expertise needed to start understanding and exploiting the data, the RUS Service was set-up. It is carried out by an international team, led by C-S France and involving Serco SpA, Noveltis, Along-Track and C-S Romania and it exploits scalable storage capacity and VMs with Computing Processing Units (CPUs) to offer the storing and computing power needed by the users. In addition, users of the Service can find on their VMs pre- installed open source programming, processing and viewing tools, and may access communication and collaboration tools with the Helpdesk. The Virtual Machines provided by RUS work in a Linux environment, hence all software compatible with such environment, either FOSS either Commercial Off- The-Shelf (COTS) owned by the user can be installed.

Use of Copernicus datasets as the main source of information is a prerequisite to access the RUS Service, but also non Copernicus data (EO and other data) can be freely used and imported. The Information and Communications Technology (ICT) for the user is defined following an analysis of the received service request: such analysis defines the scaling of the work environment in terms of duration, disk space and size (number of Virtual Machines, number of cores per machine, RAM per core). Considering resource constraints, the RUS Service can be offered to each user for a limited amount of time and including ICT/Expert/Data resources compatible with declared uptake objectives and current user demand. Three pre-defined work environments can be typically proposed: 1-4 cores with disk space up to 1 TB for 3 months, 1-10 cores with disk space up to 10 TB for 6 months or up to 40 cores with disk space up to 50 TB for 6 months. More information and details on how to open a RUS Service request can be found at: https://rus-copernicus.eu/portal/

In addition to the processing power and scientific expertise made available by the RUS Service to the users, another key pillar of the Service are the activities aimed at capacity building. The RUS Virtual Machines can in fact be exploited in dedicated face to face free training events where, through a simple Internet link, participants can connect to their assigned VM. They will find data, SW and the processing power needed for the exercise, independently from the laptop they use to connect. This allows to limit the cost traditionally associated to the setup of clusters of PCs for training events. Furthermore it ensures that the same operating system, software and processing power are used, enabling the students to proceed at the same speed during the hands-on training. This also introduces the participants to the

SISC Sixth Annual Conference - Book of Abstract 181 Climate Services: Role, Application, Value, Challenges and Opportunities for Market Development

RUS approach of “bringing the algorithm to the data” and related possible scaling effects. Face to face events are organized to meet the requirements of small groups of users who receive specific training on EO theory and are then guided by the trainers step by step, in the application of the learned theory in practical case-studies. The assigned VM remains accessible to the user for several months after the training, so as to repeat or complet the exercises (or perform other processing activities).

Other educational activities carried out within RUS account for large Webinars in English, also offered at no cost, during which users learn how to perform basic processing steps to exploit Sentinel data for a specific application. The webinars are closed by Question and Answer sessions, offering participants the possibility to interact with the trainer. To date, more than 1200 participants already benefited from RUS thematic Webinars.

The sessions are recorded and made publically available for re-play on a dedicated youtube channel (https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCB01WjameYMvL7-XfI8vRIA). Users interested to repeat the exercise can either use their own HW/SW either ask RUS the access to the VM pre-configured, with all the material needed to perform the exercise.

Finally, the theory lectures given during the face to face events are recorded and assembled with questions and multiple-choice answers and are made available on a M-learning portal. Scores are assigned for each completed course and badges are given to the users.

CONCLUSIONS

Keeping pace with technology advances, EC and ESA launched RUS, a new Service to support users from Copernicus countries in discovering and exploiting Copernicus core products and datasets. This innovative Service, which could be seen as a precursor of the Copernicus Data and Information Access Services (DIAS), provides at no cost Virtual Machines loaded with Open Source Software to download and process satellite data, technical/scientific support to facilitate data exploitation, and training activities to stimulate knowledge uptake. The particular configuration of the service allows users to prototype and test their models, algorithms and processing chains exploiting free storage and computing power, and facilitating new developments.

Keywords: Copernicus data, free open-source software, scientific support, cloud environment

SISC Sixth Annual Conference - Book of Abstract 182 Climate Services: Role, Application, Value, Challenges and Opportunities for Market Development

Towards the development of climate adaptation services POSTER

A. Panenko1,2, C. Lutoff1, E. George-Marcelpoil2

1Pacte, Grenoble, France; 2Irstea, Grenoble, France

The effects of climate change are more and more visible on the whole Planet: from the increase/decrease of precipitations, rise of sea levels and melting glaciers. Even if in certain cases these effects are less evident on small local scales, the overall global warming trend, caused by human activities, will impact all societies around the Globe. According EEA, the European land temperature was 1.3C higher than pre-industrial era (Global average is 0.8C), leading to various impacts across Member States. For example, Mediterranean and mountain regions registered a higher temperature rise with subsequent decrease in annual precipitation and river flow, decrease in glacier volumes and permafrost areas, risk of biodiversity loss and species extinction (EEA, 2016). In order to face these challenges, the European Union has adopted the “EU strategy on adaptation to climate change” (EU COM (2013) 216). It is in this optics that Climate Services appear as an emerging topic in climate change adaptation domain. Among several “actions” of the EU Strategy, Climate services are part of Action nr. 5, which emphasizes the importance of “knowledge adaptation” as tool to foster resilience. In fact, climate services (CS from now on) provide tailored information for decision-making bodies and, therefore, contribute in fostering risk and adaptation mechanisms. Moreover, these tools can be largely deployed in different sectors of our economies: from agriculture to insurance or energy. Additionally, CS involve several actors ranging from intergovernmental entities such as IPCC or international organizations such as WMO or Red Cross; to national/international research institutes (International Research Institute for Climate and Society, Climate Impact Group, Universities); National Climate Service Providers (Météo France) and sub national climate services; private sector players (EDF, Climpact) and, last but not least – climate services users.

Dilling and Lemos (2010) point out that, despite the fact that the interest and the use of climate information has increased during last decade (mainly in agriculture, water and disaster risk management), climate forecasts are far away from being exploited to their full potential. According to them, the usability of CS can be negatively influenced by a set of constrains linked to the context or to

SISC Sixth Annual Conference - Book of Abstract 183 Climate Services: Role, Application, Value, Challenges and Opportunities for Market Development

intrinsic features of climate information (Dilling and Lemos, 2010). Several authors have been arguing that scientific information and its use can be analyzed with concepts borrowed from economics. Daniel Sarewits and Roger A. Pielke Jr. (2007) proposed to consider: 1) scientific information as the supply; 2) societal goals, achievable with scientific information, as the demand function and 3) science policy decision making process as the meeting point between the first two. As they explain, merely producing knowledge on a specific topic does not indicate whether this information is actually being used (or: more information does not mean better decisions). In fact they argue that “the potential for science to contribute to societal goals depends critically on factors well beyond science” and that “better science portfolios would be achieved if they reflected an understanding of the supply,..the demand..and the complex dynamic relationship between them” (2007:6). On the demand side, contextual constrains are rooted in formal and informal institutional barriers. In fact, these are often inflexible – policy makers prefer tested solutions thus, conservatism does represent a barrier. Therefore, the institutional support is one of the most important pillars for successful implementation of CS. Additionally, cultural context and availability of realistic alternatives shape usability. Given the fact that CS are forecasts and predictions, there is need to have specific material means to implement alternatives or to access the information. On the supply side, it is the understanding of specific decision contexts that determines to which extent the information is useful. Moreover, spatial scales (policy makers prefer regional to local), the timing, the skill level (accuracy) and the level of trust influence the usability. Last but not least, efficient communication in terms of availability, visual representation and format is the factor of “attractiveness” and accessibility of CS. Potential users will be more prone to use CS if the delivered information is easy to understand and use.

There is in the literature a large consensus on abovementioned issues. In fact, the GFCS itself was established to overcome these problems and to better coordinate the development of CS on international level. In 2011 WMO has recognized that CS do not efficiently exploit scientific information; do not meet the present and the future needs; providers do not interact sufficiently with users; the commitment to sustain CS is inadequate; restrictions in information sharing are still present; the use of CS in decision- making is inadequate and the users often lack capacities to exploit the information (WMO, 2011).

In practice, especially in France, climate services provide with scientific information by forecasting the evolution of major climate variables according to IPCC scenarios (rain, wind, etc). As the reality shows, this is not enough to trigger the process of local adaptation. Therefore, an additional step must be added in order to close the gap between climate information and local adaptation to climate change, and between climate and non-climate priorities. For example, Ranger et al. (2013) argue that iterative

SISC Sixth Annual Conference - Book of Abstract 184 Climate Services: Role, Application, Value, Challenges and Opportunities for Market Development

approaches help dealing with uncertainties. In line with these suggestions, Dilling and Lemos (2010), argue for better iterativity or “purposeful and strategic interaction between climate knowledge producers and users so as to increate knowledge usability (2001:681). This is achieved when the supply and de demand for information are reconciled.

As Ranger et al. (2013) point out, there are several similar approaches such as ‘policy-first’ or ‘decision- analytic’ but the differences between them are subtle – all of them put emphasis on the problem itself (not on the outputs from the GCM), and consider contextual vulnerability of a given issue. Most of the literature calls for inclusion of stakeholders during all stages of decision-making process in order to guarantee democratic processes, coherent special scales and feedbacks. Moreover, notions such as leadership, trust and proximity can improve the relationship between researchers and policy-makers (trust being very important in modern society in general). Trust, better connections and joint re-thinking of socially constructed boundaries between science and policy are believed to increase salience and legitimacy of information. Therefore following alternatives can improve usefulness of scientific information: participatory methods (public participation, public ecology); adaptive management (policies are not seen as permanent features but as learning opportunities); community based research (science shops, mostly at university level); boundary organizations (act as bridge between scientists and policymakers).

As most of the literature argues for co-production of these tools, it is interesting to discuss the ways to co-build climate services. What is an appropriate spatial or time scale? Which stakeholders to involve, when and how? What has been done so far? The aim of this contribution is to offer an overview on climate services from historic, practical and “design” perspectives and to raise questions for further debates.

References

1. Cavelier, R., Borel, C., Charreyron, V., Chaussade, M., Le Cozannet, G., Morin, D., et al. (2017). Conditions for a market uptake of climate services for adaptation in France. Climate Services 6 , pp. 34-40. 2. Christel, I., Hemment, D., Bojovic, D., Cucchietti, F., Calvo, L., Stefaner, M., et al. (2017). Introducing design in the development of effective climate services. Climate services , pp. 1-11. 3. Cook, J. e. (2016, April). Consensus on consensus: a synthesis of consensus estimates on human-caused glibal wrming. Environmental Research Letters , pp. 1-7. 4. Cortekar, J., Bender, S., Brune, M., & Groth, M. (2016). Why climate change adaptation in cities needs customized and flexible climate services. Climate services 4 , pp. 42-51. 5. DeGaetano, A. T., Brown, T. J., Hilberg, S. D., Redmond, K., Robbins, K., Robinson, P., et al. (2010, December). Toward regional Climate services. The role of NOAA's Regional Climate Centers. American Meteorological society , pp. 1633-1644.

SISC Sixth Annual Conference - Book of Abstract 185 Climate Services: Role, Application, Value, Challenges and Opportunities for Market Development

6. Goosen, H.; de Groot-Reichwein, M. A M; Masselink, L.; Koekoek, A.; Swart, R.; Bessembinder, J.; Witte, J. M P; Stuyt, L.; Blom-Zandstra, G.; Immerzeel, W. (2014) Regional Environmental Change, volume 14, issue 3, pp. 1035 - 1048 7. Dilling, L., & Lemos, M. C. (2011). Creating usable science: opportunities and constraints for climate knowledge use and their implications for science policy. Global Environmental Change 21 , pp. 680-689. 8. Dutton, J. A. (2002, September). Opportunities and priorities in a new era for weather and climate services. American meteorological society , pp. 1303-1311. 9. European Commission. (2013). An EU Strategy on adaptationto climate change (COM (2013) 216). Brussels. 10. European Commission. (2015). Roadmap for Climate Services. Luxembourg: European Union. 11. Giuliani, G., Nativi, S., Obregon, A., Beniston, M., & Lehmann, A. (2017). Spatially enabling the Global Framework for Climate Services: Reviewing geospatial solutions to efficiently share and integrate climate data&information. Climate services , pp. 1-15. 12. Harjanne, A. (2017, July). Servitizing climate science - Institutional analysis of climate services discourse and its implications. Global Environmental Change 46 , pp. 1-16. 13. IPCC. (2014). Climate Change 2014: Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulnerability. Geneva. 14. McNie, E. C. (2013). Delivering Climate services: Organisational Strategies and Approaches for Producing Useful Climate-Science Information. Weather, Climate and Society 5 , pp. 14-26. 15. McNie, E. C. (2007). Reconciling the supply of scientific information with user demands: an analysis of the problem and review of the literature. Envinronmental Science & Policy 10 , pp. 17-38. 16. Moser, S. C., & Ekstrom, J. A. (2010, December). A framework to diagnose barriers to climate change adaptation. PNAS vol. 107 , pp. 22026-22031. 17. Sarewitz, D., & Pielke Jr, R. A. (2007). The neglected heart of science policy: reconciling supply of and demand for science. Environmental Science & Policy 10 , pp. 5-16. 18. Scott, D. J., Lemieux, C. J., & Malone, L. (2011, March). Climate services to support sustainable tourism and adaptation to climate change. Climate Research , pp. 111-122. 19. Spruijt, P., Knol, A. B., Vasileiadou, E., Devilee, J., Lebret, E., & Petersen, A. C. (2014, May). Roles of scientists as policy advisers on complew issues: a literature review. Environmental science & Policy 40 , pp. 16-25. 20. Ranger, N., Reeder, T. & Lowe, J. EURO J Decis Process (2013) 1: 233. ttps://doi.org/10.1007/s40070-013- 0014-5 21. USAID. (2013). The value of climate services across economic and public sectors. A review of relevant literature. Washington: October. 22. Vaughan, C., & Dessai, S. (2014, September/October). Climate services for society: origins, institutional arrangements, and design elements for an evaluation framework. WIREs Climate Change , pp. 587-603. 23. Vaughan, C., Buja, L., Kruczkiewicz, A., & Goddard, L. (2016). Identifying research priorities to advance climate services. Climate services 4 , pp. 65-74. 24. Weichselgartner, J., & Kasperson, R. (2010). Barriers in the science-policy-practice interface: toward a knowledge- action-system in global environmental change research. Global Environmental Change 20 , pp. 266-277.

SISC Sixth Annual Conference - Book of Abstract 186 Climate Services: Role, Application, Value, Challenges and Opportunities for Market Development

Water Resources for Irrigation, a climate service for

ORAL agriculture

L. Botarelli, V. Marletto, V. Pavan, A. Spisni, F. Tomei, G. Villani

Arpae Servizio Idrometeoclima

An endemic aspect of Mediterranean climate is the recurrent occurrence of droughts, causing income and yield losses to farmers and so representing a relevant test-bed for local water management. Since, under climate change conditions, the region has been classified as a 'hot spot' and it is expected to witness, at least, particularly intense temperature increases, this issue is likely to become more and more crucial. Irrigation water procurement and allocation agencies need stronger and innovative technical support to address this adaptation issue e.g. through climate services, based on longer time scales than standard weather forecasts, supporting the water providers in decision making for both water procurement and water allocation, also to reduce irrigation water and energy use.

The WRI (Water Resources for Irrigation) climate service is being developed and tested by ARPAE within the CLARA EU H2020 project (www.clara-project.eu). The service production requires a number of sequential steps: (i) early in the season maps with broad crop classes are produced from multi-temporal satellite data and field surveys, with one hectare resolution; (ii) seasonal (3-months) forecasts are downscaled to the study area and combined with climate data to produce monthly anomalies for a weather generator, in turn (iii) producing daily synthetic data series; (iv) irrigation forecasting is finally carried out by means of the ARPAE crop and soil water balance CRITERIA. The WRI procedure, is replicated through the season, possibly up to four times, starting from AMJ to JAS, in order to cover the longest irrigation season that in some years extends from April to September.

WRI outputs have an extensive expected impact on users. Early crop maps are deemed very useful to water management and procurement agencies for evaluating potential irrigation water demand. Early irrigation forecasts make them aware of the expected seasonal demand. Repeated forecasts can help them in fine tuning water procurement and distribution to farming districts. Final statistics are very helpful for evaluation and further analysis, also to regional environmental and water policymakers.

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Purveyors for the WRI service are Copernicus for remote sensing data, ECMWF for seasonal forecasts, the company ESRI Italia for the GIS platform (used in the MOSES EU project, www.moses-project.eu) and related developments.

Initial pilot users of the WRI climate service are some typical agricultural water management agencies of Emilia-Romagna region (in Italian "Consorzi di Bonifica", CB): CB Burana, located in Modena, CB Romagna (Cesena), CB Romagna Occidentale (Lugo). CB Romagna is also partner in the EU H2020 MOSES project (www.moses-project.eu) where important developments necessary to implement WRI took place, and hosts one othe four MOSES demonstration areas (others are located in Spain, Morocco and Romania).

Stakeholders interested in the outcomes of the CLARA WRI service are Regione Emilia-Romagna (also partner in CLARA), the regional government managing the use of surface and subsurface water especially in view of its protection from pollution and during droughts, and Canale Emiliano-Romagnolo (CER), a consortium managing the large infrastructure taking water from the Po river to the farms in Romagna. CER is partner in MOSES and also in charge of providing online irrigation advice to farmers, based on weather data and forecasts from ARPAE.

Probabilistic irrigation demand forecasts over three reclamation and irrigation consortia in Emilia- Romagna are already being provided this year (2018) by the WRI service. End-of-season irrigation water demand assessment and statistics are also foreseen.

SISC Sixth Annual Conference - Book of Abstract 188

Innovation, Technology, Mitigation Pathways and Policies

A new technology for carbon dioxide submarine storage in

ORAL glass capsules: evaluation through a life cycle assessment

B. Barreto1, S. Caserini1, G. Dolci1, M. Grosso1

1Politecnico di Milano

CO2 capture and storage has a prominent role in the climate change policy debate and has been considered a major option for reducing global emissions of CO2 in many long-term scenarios, where very ambitious greenhouse gas emission reductions are required. CCS might also be applied to biomass- fuelled power plants, thus obtaining a net removal of carbon dioxide from the atmosphere (negative emissions). According to IEA (2014), the storage phase – despite not being the most expensive – is today a critical stage of a CCS project and must be addressed up front [1]. This is due to the difficulties and the uncertainties in the assessment of the storage potential of a geological formation, to the length of monitoring phases and of the exploration works. The identification of storage sites that can accept

CO2 injection rates comparable to those captured from large emission sources is one of the main obstacles and the main factor that can influence the whole chain of CO2 sequestration. Thus, the availability of a new and safe storage technology for CO2 is of great importance for the development of CCS worldwide. The presentation will describe the energy and environmental evaluation of a new patented technology for the storage of liquid carbon dioxide (CO2) in glass capsules on the deep seabed,

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called “Submarine Carbon Storage” (SCS). This technology can represent an alternative to the conventional storage proposals, in particular for CO2 captured from flue gas of industrial processes and power plants located in coastal areas where injection in geological formations is not an option. By keeping the liquid CO2 separated from the seawater, the technology might be an alternative that presents reduced risk associated with the storage in the marine environment when compared to other alternatives proposed in the past. The basic concept of the SCS is to store the captured CO2 in a compressed liquid form in glass capsules produced by a glass furnace, and transport them through off-shore pipelines into the ocean. The proposed SCS system is composed of different stages: a furnace for the glass capsules manufacturing, a station for filling and sealing each capsule, a launcher and the pipe; by means of the pipe, capsules are transported from the land to the bottom of the sea at depths where the hydrostatic pressure exceeds the internal pressure of the CO2, typically between 1000 and 3000 meters. A Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) that considers all the stages of the process and twelve impact categories, with a focus on the climate change category, has been carried out with different combinations of the geographical and technological parameters [2]; an application of the technology to cement plants located in four different locations in the world (Italy, Spain, Bulgaria, and Morocco; cases A, B, C, and D respectively) is also presented. The LCA shows an average impact of 0.10 tCO2eq per ton of stored

CO2. In other words, this means a GHGs “penalization” of 10 % for the storage of CO2 with SCS, with a range of the best and worst scenarios between 6% and 19%. The process with the highest impact was the capsule production, due mainly to the consumption of natural gas and electricity, as well as to calcination taking place during the production of glass. The average impact for the cement plants is 0.11 tCO2eq per ton of CO2 stored for Case A, 0.084 for B, 0.086 for C and 0.132 for D. A preliminary cost analysis has included the capital costs (glass furnace, machinery, infrastructures, engineering, procurement & construction) and the operational costs (energy consumption, labor costs, materials, long-term monitoring), considering also the funding structure through financing and equity. The result is an average CO2 levelized cost of US$17 per ton of CO2 delivered by the external source, with a variability between 11 and 34 $/t CO2, costs comparable with the alternative storage solutions currently under development worldwide. The costs of the four case studies in then cement sector, assessed basing on literature data and information provided by the cement company, are 29 $/t CO2 stored for Case A, 19

$/t CO2 for case B, 16 $/tCO2 for Case C and 21 $/t CO2 for case D, and are thus in the range assessed basing on best and worst-case scenarios based on literature data. The CAPEX is quite similar between the four cases, whereas the OPEX cost variation is larger; the parameters that most affected the cost were the electricity price, the natural gas price and the amount of CO2 stored (tied to the size of the

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cement plant). The availability of space in the seabed for submarine CO2 storage in capsules resulted a minor issue for the development of the technology, since many areas in the world have large surfaces at the depth required for SCS. The Mediterranean and Black seas are of a particular potential interest, due to large deep seabed available close to the shores. On the opposite, other areas such as the North Sea or the Chinese East coast seem less suitable due to large extension of shallow sea water. The storage of liquid CO2 in a confined environment, such a glass capsule, may potentially represent a sound alternative to the seabed geological storage. CO2 migration from the storage site to the marine environment is a critical issue, but in the case of the CO2 storage in glass capsules might be caused by capsule breakages. Accordingly, a suitable storage site needs to be identified not only in terms of storage capacity, but considering the probability of occurrence of capsule breakage on the seabed that may occur in the long-term due to natural events (e.g. seismic activity, underwater earthquakes, volcanic eruptions, submarine landslides), or due to other ongoing human activities (e.g. seismic surveys) that can potentially threaten the integrity of the storage site. In addition, the environmental suitability of the storage site should be assessed considering both the environmental vulnerability of the site (e.g. due to the presence of Marine Protected Areas or the presence of critical habitats for vulnerable or endangered species) and the co-occurrence of anthropogenic pressures (e.g. maritime traffic density, or the presence of pipelines or other Oil and Gas industry infrastructures). Given its intrinsic modularity and small size, the SCS storage line can be installed not only at large power plants, but also close to industrial facilities or CO2 emission sources located on the coastline, provided that a proper marine storage location is available within 200 km. This is because of the widespread availability of the raw materials required for the capsules production. The SCS line module is suitable to be optimized for mass manufacturing; however, the transport pipe is the only item dependent on the local conditions such as the topography of the seabed. The modularity of the SCS technology will also allow an easy planning in terms of installation and financing, without the constraints and uncertainties of other CO2 storage technologies, a factor that could have a great importance for his future role as a climate change mitigation option.

References

1. IEA (2015) Carbon Capture and Storage: The solution for deep emissions reductions. OECD/ International Energy Agency. 2. Caserini S., Dolci G., Azzellino A., Lanfredi C., Rigamonti L., Barreto B., Grosso M. (2017) Evaluation of a new technology for carbon dioxide submarine storage in glass capsules. International Journal of Greenhouse Gas Control, 60, 140–155.

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SISC Sixth Annual Conference - Book of Abstract 192 Innovation, Technology, Mitigation Pathways and PoliciesInnovation, Technology, Mitigation Pathways and Policies

An index for the evaluation of Sustainable Energy Action Plans implementation: methodology and case-study POSTER application to the Metropolitan City of Milan

G. Messori1, S. Caserini2, E. Morello3

1Politecnico di Milano, Servizio Sostenibilità di Ateneo 2Politecnico di Milano, Dipartimento di Ingegneria Civile ed Ambientale 3Politecnico di Milano, Dipartimento di Architettura e Studi Urbani

The Covenant of Mayors is a voluntary initiative launched by the European Commission in 2008 to involve local authorities in the implementation of the EU targets for climate change mitigation. By joining, cities commit themselves to draft a Sustainable Energy Action Plan (SEAP), a document in which they define their emission reduction target (which has to be at least a 20% reduction of CO2 emission by 2020) and the mitigation actions needed to achieve it, and also to present their progress every two years in a monitoring report. Despite being initially drafted for big urban centers, the vast majority of the participants are cities with less than 10.000 inhabitants and this allowed the response to the initiative to be quite high, reaching over 7.500 local authorities around the world in 2017. Among the EU members, Italy has been the most active State inside the initiative, with around 4.000 signatories. Nonetheless, gaining a clear understanding of the real level of implementation and effectiveness of the initiative is difficult, mostly because of the lack of data and monitoring reports. This study investigates the Covenant of Mayors through the actions undertaken by the 134 Municipalities in the Metropolitan City of Milan. Most of them have signed the Covenant (80%): only 27 have not taken part to the initiative, and 5 more have signed the commitments but never drafted a SEAP, so are now considered on hold. First of all, a survey was conducted among all the local municipalities of the Metropolitan City of Milan in order to collect information about the mitigation actions already carried out at local level, independently of their involvement in the Covenant of Mayors. Based on the 55 answers collected (i.e. 41% of the municipalities, representing 68% of the total population of the Metropolitan City), it was possible to establish the most frequently implemented actions in the sectors under the administrative control of the Municipality and to gain information about the main difficulties faced. It was possible to confirm that signatories of the Covenant of Mayors have carried out a larger number of mitigation actions, also involving a wider range of sectors, compared to Municipalities outside of the initiative. Moreover,

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signatories experienced better access to financing, even if most cities still suffered from a lack of funds along with a lack of personnel. To better evaluate the SEAP implementation, the analysis of the data collected through the survey has been then integrated with an in-depth study of each Action Plan and a review of institutional websites. An index to assess the SEAP performance has been developed on the basis of the methodological approach given by the Climate Change Performance Index, which evaluates and compares the climate protection performance of 56 countries and the EU. In particular, the proposed SEAP Implementation Index looks at the same time at various aspects linked to the initiative: SEAP quality, availability of online information, population involvement, governance, actualization and effectiveness. This approach, by considering other features aside from the mere achievement of the initial goal, allows evaluating all signatories that presented a SEAP, instead of limiting the analysis to the ones that have completed the monitoring stage only. The index is composed of six categories and 16 indicators, each of them linked to a weight reflecting its relative importance inside the whole index. These weights allow the individual scores to be aggregated first in the categories scores and then in the overall score for each Municipality, resulting in a final score ranging from 1 to 10, 1 being the lowest and 10 the highest. Since in the Metropolitan City of Milan the share of Municipalities that joined the Covenant and presented a SEAP is high, it has been possible to apply this SEAP Implementation Index to 102 cases. Results show an average score of 4.2 points; only 23 signatories managed to reach an evaluation of six or higher. SEAP quality has been the only category to obtain scores above 6, online information and actualization managed to reach mean scores above 5 while the remaining ones have displayed very low results. The most critical aspect refers to population involvement, an issue that has been completely neglected by many municipalities, and the management of the initiative, mostly due to the lack of personnel. The results also showed how the target reductions are close to being met in many cases, even if these reductions seem to be mostly independent from the initiative: the CO2 emissions avoided by to the actions defined in the SEAP are very low resulting in a low score for the initiative effectiveness. The municipalities with the worst overall scores are mostly concentrated in the area with the lowest population density, since smaller local authorities face bigger issues in gathering the necessary resources to actually implement the planned measures. A sensitivity analysis has been carried out to verify the stability of the results obtained when modifying the weights associated to the indicators and the categories themselves. This analysis showed how, even considering the most extreme combinations of weights in order to obtain the best and worst-case scenarios, the final results are quite stable, and the variation coefficient is 19%. Despite the great ambitions of the Covenant of Mayors, the analysis allows to conclude that the current implementation of this initiative faces many setbacks. The execution of the

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planned measures has been hindered by lack of funds and personnel, while the population involvement has not been achieved since the awareness raising campaigns have been insufficient. The commitments to 2020 will probably be met anyways, but the credits should not go to the active contributions of the cities. In order to achieve better results in the new commitment period, it is necessary to renew the approach on how local authorities can contribute in tackling climate change. Since the lack of funds and personnel revealed themselves to be among the main issues in the SEAP implementation, a viable solution could be to use a joint approach when renewing the Covenant commitments for 2030. For instance, by partitioning the territory in homogeneous areas and proposing a super-local coordination by the Metropolitan City, it would be possible to have Municipalities with the same characteristics and needs working together in drafting an Action Plan. This would allow a sharing of the burden on the economical and human resources and would improve the continuity of the commitments, since right now the Covenant initiative also suffers from the lack of stability of the local governments.

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Climate Policies and Skill-Biased Employment Dynamics:

ORAL evidence from EU countries

G. Marin1, F. Vona2

1Università di Urbino Carlo Bo, Italy; 2OFCE Sciences-Po and SKEMA Business School, Université Cote d'Azur (GREDEG), France

The political acceptability of climate policies is undermined by job killing argument, especially for least- skilled workers. However, evidence on distributional impacts on different groups of workers is still scant. Of particular importance is assess if the labour market impacts of climate policies reinforce or not the well-known secular trends of skill upgrading, induced by globalization and automation. As for Information and Communication Technologies (ICT henceforth), firms exposed to stringent climate policies may adopt technologies and organizational practices that require a different set of skills. Ultimately, whether climate policies and the greening of our economies induce changes in skill demand, and the extent to which these changes are aligned with those of on-going technological transformations, is an empirical issue that our paper seeks to answer. The first step of our research is to provide an exploratory look at the way in which the adoption of climate policies interacts with other labour market trends in shaping long-term changes in the workforce composition. Indeed, reemployment opportunities for displaced workers depend on their skill sets and are clearly less bright for workers whose competences are offshored or automated. Conversely, those workers equipped with the competences needed in new green jobs will benefit from the expansion in the demand of green goods and services induced by such policies. We contribute in three ways to the scant empirical literature on distributional impacts of environmental policies across different workers’ groups, which is mostly limited to the US. First, we enlarge the breadth and generality of previous works by considering a more aggregated level of analysis. More specifically, we examine the association between climate policies and workforce skills for 14 European countries and 15 industrial sectors over the period 1995-2011. Similarly to previous research on the impact of ICT, this allows us to examine within-sector cross-country differences in the association between climate policies and labour demand divided by skill groups. Second, we build a unique dataset containing information on the exposure to climate policies, green innovations and other structural

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changes, essentially trade and (ICT and non-ICT) capital investments. On the one hand, this allows us to isolate the effects of climate policies on workforce skills in our econometric analyses. On the other hand, we gain descriptive insights on how climate policies interact with other structural transformation in the labour market. We use cluster analysis to describe the overlapping of different labour market changes and thus the potentially cumulative effects of present and future climate policies. Third, we estimate the long-term effects of climate policies on workforce skills addressing the issue of endogeneity of climate policies using standard shift-share methodology for the two main policies of interest. Our favourite measures of climate policies are sectoral energy prices, and the composite EPS index, synthetizing the plethora of environmental policies adopted by EU countries in a unique index suitable to be instrumented. Our results indicate that properly accounting for endogeneity changes only the magnitude of the estimated effects and that, if any, OLS estimates are downwardly biased. More in general, three are the main results of our analysis. First, the cluster analysis shows that clusters exposed to climate policies (with a higher GHG emission intensity) and to other structural transformations (i.e. trade exposed) are not necessarily at a disadvantage compared to other clusters. Second, we estimate a decline of employment in most emission-intensive sectors that occurs independently on policy stringency. Third, both the cluster and the econometric analysis highlights a pronounced skill-biased in favour of technicians and against manual workers. The bias is stronger for energy prices, high-tech sectors, and the combined effects of all climate policies explains up to 2/3 of the increase in the share of technicians over the sample period.

SISC Sixth Annual Conference - Book of Abstract 197 Innovation, Technology, Mitigation Pathways and PoliciesInnovation, Technology, Mitigation Pathways and Policies

Energy transition pathways for the US coal sector under

ORAL delayed climate policy actions

P. Patrizio1, S. Leduc1, S. Mesfun1, S. Fuss1,2, F. Kraxner1

1Ecosystems Services and Management Program (ESM), International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA), Schlossplatz 1, A-2361 Laxenburg, Austria; 2Working Group, Sustainable Resource Management and Global Change, Mercator Research Institute on Global Commons and Climate Change, Torgauer Strasse 12–15, Berlin 10829, Germany

Despite a slowdown over the last five years, global coal consumption in the energy sector is predicted to rise over the next decades, as numerous countries are expected to meet their growing energy demand largely with fossil fuels [1–4]. If projections of coal use are correct, emissions resulting from coal use will significantly endanger the ability to meet ambitious climate targets. While a coal “renaissance” seems almost inevitable in developing economies, countries like the United States (US), currently the second- biggest global coal consumer in the world [3], could utilize their economic standing to mitigate their energy sector emissions. Recent economic, social, and political factors have threatened the historical dominance of coal for US power generation. This has greatly diminished the outlook of the domestic US coal sector: i) the development of US shale gas reserves has brought an abundant supply of cheap domestic natural gas; ii) utilities are progressively turning away from coal and toward natural gas for baseload generation [5]; meanwhile, iii) renewables are also becoming increasingly competitive and have strong support from the public [6]. All these forces have contributed to the pressure on existing coal-fired power plants, especially as the US coal fleet largely comprises old subcritical units with an average thermal efficiency of around 35% (LHV, net) and an average CO2 net intensity of 1.02 tCO2 per MWh of electricity. Beyond socio-economic woes, the international nature of climate mitigation goals such as the Paris agreement, added another dimension to the coal’s industry troubles as governments worldwide have agreed that international climate policy should aim to limit the increase of global mean temperature to less than 2°C with respect to pre-industrial levels. Subsequently, Integrated assessment modelling efforts, aiming at depicting future energy scenarios in line with such temperature goals have indicated that the share of coal without carbon capture and storage (CCS) [7, 8] worldwide will need to decline rapidly from today’s levels to reach a complete phase-out around mid-century. The deployment

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of CCS technology, despite its anticipated importance in reaching long-term climate targets [9], together with efforts by the scientific community to promote the early implementation of CCS [10–12], has continued to lag behind expectations [13]. This also represents a bottleneck in terms of reaching negative emissions through the use of low-carbon bioenergy (BE) combined with CCS (BECCS), which leads to removal of CO2 from the atmosphere, if the CO2 released during bioenergy generation is captured and permanently stored [9, 14–16]. Technological aspects of long-term mitigation policies are thus receiving renewed attention especially because current national emission reduction pledges are not consistent with the reductions required to meet the 2 °C target in a cost-minimizing way. In particular, past researches [17, 18] have highlighted the tradeoffs between the implementation of climate actions before and by 2030 and the achievement of stringent long-term mitigation targets. Such studies have shown that a delay in climate policy can result in substantial increases in mitigation costs and even infeasibilities [19], and that technological aspects of mitigation policies are key elements of climate mitigation. In this study, we contribute to this debate, by modelling the technological transition of the coal sector to achieve emission reduction in line with ambitious temperature target under weak near- term policies. We include in the analysis all power plants of the US coal fleet, a large part of which would need to be replaced due to their higher age. Coal-fired power plants can either be (a) replaced by higher- efficiency coal plants, (b) natural gas plants or (c) coal plants with CCS, while plants not yet at the end of their lifetime can be (d) retrofitted to co-fire coal and biomass with CCS (BECCS) thereby achieving negative emissions. We hence assumed different delayed action pathways to begin in 2025 (5 years delay) and 2030 (10 years delay). The delayed scenarios follow the baseline emissions scenario until the year in which mitigation begins. Results show that by starting mitigation efforts in 2020, a cost- optimal way of reaching ambitious emission targets by 2050 can still be based on the full portfolio of technologies. The rate of BECCS deployment increases with delayed actions since facing out of coal without CCS is delayed and needs compensation with negative emissions. Major delays in effective climate policies (from 10 years onwards) result in unavoidable overshoot by mid-century. Moreover, we show that is policy actions are delayed, the cost of hitting the RCP 2.6 climate target increases, on average, by approximately 10 percent per decade.

References

1. Steckel JC, Edenhofer O, Jakob M (2015) Drivers for the renaissance of coal. Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A 112(29):E3775-81.

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2. Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) (2007) The Future of Coal. Options for a carbon-constrained world (Massachusetts Institute of Technology) doi:10.2469/faj.v10.n4.77. 3. IEA (2016) World Energy Outlook 2016. Int Energy Agency Paris, Fr:28. 4. Garg A, Shukla PR (2009) Coal and energy security for India: Role of carbon dioxide (CO2) capture and storage (CCS). Energy 34(8):1032–1041. 5. Tsai CH, Guelen G (2017) Natural gas use in electricity generation in the United States: Outlooks to 2030. Electr J 30(2):15–24. 6. Louie EP, Pearce JM (2016) Retraining investment for U.S. transition from coal to solar photovoltaic employment. Energy Econ 57:295–302. 7. MacDowell N, et al. (2010) An overview of CO2 capture technologies. Energy Environ Sci 3(11):1645. 8. Boot-Handford ME, et al. (2014) Carbon capture and storage update. Energy Environ Sci 7(1):130–189. 9. Fuss S, et al. (2014) Betting on negative emissions. Nat Clim Chang 4(10):850–853. 10. Scott V, Gilfillan S, Markusson N, Chalmers H, Stuart Haszeldine R (2012) Last chance for carbon capture and storage. Nat Clim Chang 3. doi:10.1038/NCLIMATE1695. 11. Mac Dowell N, Fennell PS, Shah N, Maitland GC (2017) The role of CO2 capture and utilization in mitigating climate change. Nat Clim Chang 7. doi:10.1038/NCLIMATE3231. 12. O’Brien, K.C., Johnson, W., Roberts DL (2011) Investment Opportunities Exist in Carbon Capture Market. Nat Gas Electr 26(4):27–28. 13. Peters GP, et al. (2017) Key indicators to track current progress and future ambition of the Paris Agreement. Nat Clim Chang 7(2):118–122. 14. Kraxner F, et al. (2015) The Role of Bioenergy with Carbon Capture and Storage (BECCS) for Climate Policy. Handbook of Clean Energy Systems, pp 1–19. 15. Kraxner F, Nilsson S, Obersteiner M (2003) Negative emissions from BioEnergy use, carbon capture and sequestration (BECS)—the case of biomass production by sustainable forest management from semi-natural temperate forests. Biomass and Bioenergy 24(4–5):285–296. 16. Fuss S, et al. (2016) Research priorities for negative emissions. Environ Res Lett 11(11):115007. 17. Luderer G, Bertram C, Calvin K, De Cian E, Kriegler E (2016) Implications of weak near-term climate policies on long-term mitigation pathways. Clim Change 136(1):127–140. 18. Iyer G, et al. (2015) Diffusion of low-carbon technologies and the feasibility of long-term climate targets. Technol Forecast Soc Change 90(PA):103–118. 19. Eom J, et al. (2015) The impact of near-term climate policy choices on technology and emission transition pathways. Technol Forecast Soc Change 90(PA):73–88.

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Exploring pathways of solar PV learning in Integrated

ORAL Assessment Models

S. Carrara1,2,3, M. Bevione1,4, H.S. de Boer5, D. Gernaat5, S. Mima6, R.C. Pietzcker7, M. Tavoni1,2,8

1Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei (FEEM), Milan, Italy; 2Centro Euro-Mediterraneo sui Cambiamenti Climatici (CMCC), Milan, Italy; 3Renewable and Appropriate Energy Laboratory (RAEL), University of California, Berkeley, USA; 4INRIA, Grenoble, France; 5PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency, Den Haag, the Netherlands; 6CNRS - Université Grenoble Alpes, Grenoble, France; 7PIK Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Potsdam, Germany; 8Politecnico di Milano, Milan, Italy

The importance of solar PV (PhotoVoltaics) as a power technology has rapidly grown in the last years and now it is indisputable that it will play a major role in the future energy scenario. One of the most important factors influencing PV penetration in the electricity mix is its investment cost. This cost decreased quite regularly in the past and this trend is expected to continue in the next decades. However, substantial uncertainty still remains on the actual future cost evolution and on the consequent impacts on PV diffusion. Basing on this consideration, a modeling scenario exercise has been set up which aims at exploring the impacts of the different cost patterns on PV penetration in the electricity mix and on other relevant variables. The objective of the exercise is twofold: - From a policy-relevancy perspective, explore different scenarios related to the possible future cost patterns of the solar PV technology; - From a modeling perspective, assess the responsiveness of models to changes in the cost data input. This extended abstract briefly describes the exercise and some illustrative results from the preliminary set of runs. The investment cost evolution for renewable power technologies in Integrated Assessment Models (IAMs) is often modeled through an endogenous learning process, and in particular according to a one- factor learning curve (learning-by-doing), where the cost decreases over time thanks to the experience gained with progressive deployment. In formula: CCt = CC1*(Kt/K1)^-b, where the ratio between the capital cost at time t (CCt) and the initial one (CC1) depends on the ratio between the cumulative capacity at time t (Kt) and the initial one (K1) to the negative power of a parameter (b), which measures the strength of the learning effect. It relates to the learning rate (LR) which measures the rate at which unit costs decrease for each doubling of the cumulative capacity, through the following relationship: LR

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= 1-2^-b. Thus, a 20% learning rate means that when the cumulative installed capacity doubles compared to the initial level, technology costs fall by 20%. Normally models also include a floor cost (FC) to set a minimum price below which investment costs cannot fall. In most models, this value is not implemented as a hard bound, but rather it is subtracted from the initial cost in order to highlight the part of the initial cost which actually undergoes learning: CCt = FC + (CC1 - FC)*(Kt/K1)^-b Four IAMs agreed to take part in the exercise: IMAGE [1], POLES [2], REMIND [3] and WITCH [4]. All these models implement the modeling scheme described above, with clear benefits for the exercise coherence. The exercise consists in a simple sensitivity analysis on the two main learning parameters: the learning rate and the floor cost. In particular, a matrix of ten cost scenarios is considered: 5 learning rate cases x 2 floor cost cases. These scenarios are explored in a standard mitigation policy, where a carbon tax is applied in order to achieve a long-term target of limiting the temperature increase in 2100 with respect to the pre-industrial levels below 2°C with a likely chance. Such a mitigation policy is taken into account in order to analyze a scenario where PV penetration is predictably considerable. In detail, the tax starts in 2020 and is calibrated so as to reach a global cumulative amount of CO2 emissions equal to 1000 Gt in the period 2011-2100 in the reference scenario. The same tax is then applied to all the other mitigation scenarios. No further sensitivity analysis is conducted on the policy dimension, since this aspect is not within the scope of this work (and in any case it has been thoroughly addressed in many other research works). A baseline case (no policy) is simply added for benchmarking purposes. The choice of the ±50% cases derives from an empirical estimate on the PV learning rate [5] which identifies i) 19% as the mean of the relevant distribution, and ii) the relative variations of ±25% and ±50% as the ±σ and ±2σ values, respectively. The reference learning rate is meant to be the default one of the single models. The no floor cost case, especially if coupled with high learning rates, might well lead to an extreme condition where the PV investment cost approaches zero. This is obviously a hardly policy- relevant scenario, but it can be considered an interesting model-stressing case-study. In this abstract a couple of illustrative results from the exercise are reported: the first submission has recently been completed, and the analysis of the relevant results is currently under way. All models except POLES show a robust behavior concerning capital cost, as this spans the range 80-1000 $/kW in 2100 in the considered scenarios. The lower bound of this range is a very low cost, hardly reachable in reality, but it can be interesting to stress models in these extreme conditions. POLES, instead, shows a more pessimistic behavior: under no cases does PV capital cost fall below 1100 $/kW in this model. The global penetration of solar PV in the electricity mix markedly varies across scenarios, and across models as well, despite the coherence in the cost evolution mentioned above. It is interesting to see that

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REMIND, which shows the highest PV penetration levels, is the model showing the highest sensitivity to learning rates as well. On the opposite extreme, not only is POLES the model generating the lowest penetration levels, but it is also characterized by essentially no elasticity (partly due to the low elasticity shown in capital costs). WITCH and IMAGE show an intermediate and very similar behavior. If focus is moved from the mere PV share to the whole VRE (Variable Renewable Energies, i.e. wind and solar PV and CSP, Concentrated Solar Power) share, it can be observed that sensitivity to learning rates diminishes, thus indicating that the higher/lower PV penetration occurs to the detriment/benefit of wind and CSP. In general, models tend to show higher sensitivity to lower learning rates than to higher learning rates.

References

1. de Boer H.S. & van Vuuren D.P. (2017), Representation of variable renewable energy sources in TIMER, an aggregated energy system simulation model, Energy Economics, Vol. 64, pp. 600-611 2. Després J., Mima S., Kitous A., Criqui P., Hadjsaid N. & Noirot I. (2017), Storage as a flexibility option in power systems with high shares of variable renewable energy sources: a POLES-based analysis, Energy Economics, Vol. 64, pp. 638-650 3. Ueckerdt F., Pietzcker R.C., Scholz Y., Stetter D., Giannousakis A. & Luderer G. (2017), Decarbonizing global power supply under region-specific consideration of challenges and options of integrating variable renewables in the REMIND model, Energy Economics, Vol. 64, pp. 665-684 4. Carrara S. & Marangoni G. (2017), Including system integration of Variable Renewable Energies in a Constant Elasticity of Substitution framework: the case of the WITCH model, Energy Economics, Vol. 64, pp. 612-626 5. Witajewski-Baltvilks J., Verdolini E. & Tavoni M. (2015), Bending the learning curve, Energy Economics, Vol. 52, pp. S86-S99

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Fairness in NDCs: comparing mitigation efforts from an equity

ORAL perspective

M. Davide1,2, L. Campagnolo1,2, R. Parrado2

1Ca' Foscari University; 2Euro-Mediterranean Center on Climate Change

Along with efficiency, equity is a key element of an effective international climate policy agreement [1] [2]. By involving value judgement and national interests, the matter represents a point of disagreement among countries that has been accompanying the UNFCCC process since the beginning of climate negotiations in the 1990s. With the introduction of the Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) and the new bottom-up approach to the definition of emission reductions launched with the Paris Agreement, the issue gained even more relevance. In its article 2, the Paris Agreement confirms its purpose of implementing the commitments in order “to reflect equity and the principle of common but differentiated responsibilities and respective capabilities, in the light of different national circumstances” [3]. However, each country implicitly or explicitly includes an own interpretation of how the burden should be distributed. Indeed, single countries strongly differ in terms of current and historical emission levels, vulnerability to climate impacts and economic development. According to the objectives of the Paris Agreement, however, the sum of the self-determined domestic emission reduction contributions needs to be consistent with the emissions pathway required to limit global temperature increase to 2°C by 2100. Against this background, this paper aims to combine these two aspects (stringency and equity) to assess the mitigation component of the NDCs provided by different countries. Our analysis consists in a comparison of the cumulative emissions resulting in the period 2015 - 2030 from the implementation of the mitigation targets included in the NDCs against the cumulative emissions for the same period consistent with the threshold of keeping temperature below 2°C. The 2° carbon budget is allocated among countries according three equity indicators: a) Historical responsibility (HR); b) Economic capability (EC); c) Equal individual rights (ER). Since it is very unlikely that countries would agree on one of these equity-based indicators – as well as it would be reductive for our objective - we then compute a new distribution obtained by aggregating the emission levels associated to our three different indicators by mean of a population-based voting approach as proposed by Müller in 2001 [2].

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According to this method, each country expresses its preference for one of the options (the one which allocates the largest amount of carbon budget emissions) that is then multiplied by the number of people it represents. This sort of ‘demographic weights’ for each candidate option allow to include also a dimension of representational equity in the definition of the carbon budget. The analysis is conducted at the global level, covering 45 countries and regional aggregations. The national carbon budgets computed in this first phase are then used to simulate a full emission trading system among countries in order to estimate potential benefits in terms of compliance costs and financial flows associated with the trade. Through the use of a recursive-dynamic Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model we are able to compare the two climate policy scenarios (i.e. the NDCs scenario without international trade and the 2°C scenario with full trade) and the respective economic impacts. Overall, we find that only a small number of countries proposed a NDC in line with the equitable allocation of the carbon budget until 2030. Our results confirm that the mitigation contributions submitted by most of developed countries are far from being consistent with the objectives of the Paris Agreement in terms of either stringency or equity. A significant gap affects the NDC of major emitters and in particular those of US, China and Russia, whose equitable budget is expected to expire well in advance of 2030. India is the only exception, with an emission gap relatively smaller than the other key players and the NDC above of only one of the selected equity principles. Also Middle Eastern regions and the EU countries are required to propose more stringent emission reductions. On the contrary, the least developed countries will accumulate a consistent credit, accounting for a very small portion of emissions in each of our criteria. By using the emission trading scheme, countries with more ambitious emissions reduction objectives are expected to lower the cost associated with the implementation of a carbon budget consistent with 2°C. This indicates that emissions trading is a crucial component to efficiently achieve the Paris Agreement’s temperature target. From a methodological point of view, by including an approach based on more than one criterion and able to adjust responsibilities, capabilities and national circumstances over time, our framework represents a transparent and relatively easy way to assess NDCs efforts. Differently from recent studies using similar approaches, our analysis covers a wider number of countries, therefore providing a comprehensive overview of what Paris Agreement’s parties should aim in the near future. In addition, equity indicators are synthetized in a single value that allows to consider all the dimensions simultaneously. As highlighted by the existing literature, however, the results are strongly influenced by how these principles are implemented and the methods to do it are many. This notwithstanding, the analysis proposed in this paper enriches the emerging literature aimed at providing a benchmark for the evaluation of the NDCs mitigation effort including also equity principles, and going beyond a pure

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quantitative assessment of the emission required to stay under the 2° C target [4]. More broadly, our findings will inform the ongoing UNFCCC negotiations, including the first facilitative dialogue taking place this year (2018) as well as the subsequent global stocktakes to be launched in 2023. Finally, the possibility to exchange carbon allowances will give interesting hints to the debate on how to effectively operationalize the market and non-market approaches included in the article 6 of the Paris Agreement.

References

1. Carraro, C., 2000. Efficiency and Equity of Climate Change Policy. Springer-Science Business Media. 2. Müller, B., 2001. Varieties of Distributive Justice in Climate Change. Climatic Change, Issue 48, p. 273–288. 3. UNFCCC, 2015. Adoption of the Paris Agreement, Paris: UNFCCC Conference of the Parties.Twenty-first session Paris, 30 Nov. to 11 Dec. 2015. 4. Rogelj, J. et al., 2016. Paris Agreement Climate Proposals Need a Boost to Keep Warming Well below 2 °C. Nature, 534(7609), p. 631–39.

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The political economy of energy innovation ORAL

S. Dasgupta1,2, E. De Cian1,2, E. Verdolini2,3

1Università Ca’ Foscari Venezia; 2Centro Euro-Mediterraneo sui Cambiamenti Climatici; 3Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei

Technological change directed towards more efficient and eco-friendly technologies is a priority for both developed and developing countries. Insights on past trends and determinants of energy innovation, including political economy factors and non-financial drivers, are important to set the basis for cost- effective climate and energy policies in the coming years. Issues such as the role of institutions, as enabling or inhibiting factors, and of lobbying as a barrier to clean energy transitions, are important factors that have been only marginally examined by the existing literature. A thorough investigation of these questions often proves difficult due to the fact that defining energy innovation is challenging: innovation per se encompasses several important phases, from idea development to full commercialization. Furthermore, clearly defining which innovations improve the use of energy in an economy is very challenging, while comprehensive statistics on energy-related innovation are also not readily available. The Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) countries provide information on public energy Research and Development (R&D) budget and industrial R&D investments. Conversely, neither private investment data nor public R&D data for non-OECD countries are collected in a systematic manner (Verdolini et al. 2016). The broader geographic and temporal coverage of patent statistics, which can be classified in several energy- and climate-related technology fields, spurred a wealth of contributions on the topic, most of which focus on the inducement effect of environmental policy (Carraro et al. 2010; Popp et al. 2010). The contribution of this paper is twofold. First, we provide an overview of the different proxies for energy-related innovation, which we define as innovation aimed at improving energy efficiency and/or at reducing carbon intensity of energy, such as renewables and more efficient power-generating technologies. We compile information on two of the commonly used indicators of innovation, namely energy industrial R&D, which measure innovation inputs, and energy patents, which measure innovation outputs. We describe their dynamics using a panel dataset

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of 20 countries over the years 1995–2010. When focussing on industrial R&D, we provide both a lower and an upper bound estimate of investments. Second, we use the collected data to examine the influence of political economy factors on energy-related innovations using econometric analysis. This methodology allows us to assess the impact of one of these factors conditional on all other aspects considered. Political economy factors can be broadly defined as those concerning the interactions and tensions between de jure and de facto power, including the distribution of resources, the rules for the exercise of power and the enforcement of contracts, the procedures and institutions for settling conflicts over these rules, or the physical and organizational infrastructure supporting economic activities, transactions, and collective actions. In this paper, we focus on four aspects: the types and stringency of government support to energy innovation (e.g. the various policy instruments implemented to this end such as environmental and R&D policies); the quality of governance (e.g. government effectiveness); the political orientation of the government; and the distribution of resources across interest groups. The empirical literature on energy innovation has not explored the inducement effect of the abovementioned factors jointly. In the specific domain of energy and the environment, the role of public policies as drivers of innovation has received more attention than institutions and political economy factors. The existing literature shows that both market-based and non-market-based instruments along with innovation policies supporting cleaner technologies, affect the rate and direction of technological change (Carraro et al. 2010; Popp et al. 2010). The multiple sources of market failures that characterize the energy sector and the recent debate regarding the actions governments should undertake to curb rising greenhouse gas emissions partly explains the focus of the current literature on the role of environmental, energy, and innovation policies. In the energy-environmental realm, state intervention is motivated by the presence of environmental externalities (a gap between private and social returns to pollution control), as well as of innovation externalities (a gap between private and social returns to innovation). Moreover, in comparison to other sectors, energy R&D often entails large-scale projects, which need public support (Anadón 2012). Conversely, the role of governance quality, political orientation of the government, and distribution of resources across interest groups have received only marginal attention in the contributions focussing on the determinants of energy technology innovation. We contribute to the literature by jointly assessing the influence of environmental and R&D policies, governance quality, political orientation, and distribution of resources to energy intensive industries on energy innovation. Our results suggest that all institutional and political economy factors affect the incentives to devote resources to energy R&D and to create newer clean and energy efficient technologies. Political economy factors can influence R&D and innovation even in the presence of stringent environmental policies. This

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implies that in order to induce changes towards a greener economy, countries should combine environmental policy with a general strengthening of institutional quality and consider the influence of government’s political orientation on environmental policy and of the size of energy intensive sectors, which can affect both the lobbying structure and the demand for energy innovations.

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To Reach the 1.5°C of Global Temperature Increment We Will

POSTER Need Much More Than Increased Ambition

C. Gay García1,2, O.C. Sánchez Meneses1

1Centro de Ciencias de la Atmósfera, Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México; 2Programa de Investigación en Cambio Climático, Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México.

According to the models of energy balance and the coupled biogeochemical cycles, the changes in the global temperature of the Earth are related to the concentrations of greenhouse gases. These concentrations are directly dependent on the emissions of greenhouse gases to the atmosphere. The changes in global temperature are the responds to the changes in the radiative forcings provoked by changes in those concentrations.

The Intended Nationally Determined Contributions (INDCs) establish commitments of CO2 emissions from different countries for the year 2030, the concentrations corresponding to these emissions are much higher than those needed to reach the 2.0° C increase in the global temperature [1].

The relation between concentration of CO2 in the atmosphere and accumulated CO2 annual emissions, for year 2100, is shown for three types of CO2 emission pathways: SRES (Special Report of Emission Scenarios [2]), RCP´s (Representative Concentration Pathways [3]) and a set of linear emissions pathways constructed from -2, -1, … 4, 5 times the CO2 emissions observed at 1990 [4]. All the emission pathways are on the line determined by the linear emissions. The relation between global temperature increments and accumulated CO2 annual emissions is presented too, the values of global temperature increments corresponding to linear emissions pathways represent a limit for those of the SRES and RCPs [5].

Also for 2100, the relation between global temperature increments and radiative forcing, considering the climate sensitivity parameter (estimation of the equilibrium response of global mean surface air temperature to a doubling of the CO2 concentration) is shown. Four values of climate sensitivity parameter: 1.5, 3.0, 4.5 and 6.0 °C/W m-2 were considered. The 3 different emission pathways types show the same linear relation for the value of 3.0 °C/W m-2. The SRES and the linear pathways are on

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the same straight line and the RCPs are on a parallel straight line slightly above. If the other values of sensitivity parameter are considered the linear emission pathways also show straight lines for the linear emissions pathways, but they present different slopes, smaller for 1.5 and bigger for 6.0 °C/W m-2.

In order to relate the accumulated CO2 emissions projected for the years 2030 (INDCs aim) and 2100, with the global temperature increments objectives of 1.0°C and 2.0°C with respect to 1990, two simple fuzzy models were elaborated that consist in: 1) polygonal CO2 emissions whose cumulative values up to 2100, starting with emissions reductions in 2030, lead to temperature increases of 1.0 and 2.0°C and 2) estimating the effect of delaying or advancing the decision to reduce emissions.

Both of the fuzzy models consider polygonal CO2 emissions on the linear pathways corresponding to 3 (3CO2) and 4 (4CO2) times the level of emissions of CO2 in 1990 and then, at the year 2030, the emissions begin to reduce, in a linear path again, until 2100. The observed CO2 emissions, until 2005, are located between 3CO2 and 4CO2 linear emissions pathways [5].

An additional fuzzy model was constructed which has two input variables, the concentration of CO2 for the linear emission pathways and the climate sensitivity, and one output variable, the global temperature increment. This model allows to estimate global temperature increments consistent with those obtained with the general circulation models which use SRES and RCPs emissions pathways as it can be found in the IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) assessment reports. The model is based on that presented in [6].

For decision making purposes, it is shown that the expectations of reaching stabilization temperature increases of 1 °C and 2 °C (compared to 1990) for the year 2100 are not plausible, even less if pre- industrial values are considered. It is necessary to reduce emissions strongly, as soon as possible, with the aim of reaching the expected 2 °C.

Even more, if the polygonal emissions pathways proposed here were realized, an overshoot of temperature would be observed, i.e., for some year before 2100 and after 2070 the global temperature increment would overpass the objective thresholds of 1 °C and 2 °C, the consequences of this could be irreversible. For values of climate sensitivity greater than 3.0 °C/W m-2 the overshoot is bigger and thresholds objective are not reached.

It is widely convenient to carry out the efforts for reaching the thresholds of global temperature increments, even though the economic costs are directly related with the magnitude of the negative slopes in the linear emissions pathways.

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References

1. UNEP (2015). The Emissions Gap Report 2015. United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP), Nairobi. 97 pp. 2. Nakicenovic, N., J. Alcamo, G. Davis, B. de Vries, J. Fenhann, S. Gaffin, K. Gregory, A. Grübler, T. Y. Jung, T. Kram, E. L. La Rovere, L. Michaelis, S. Mori, T. Morita, W. Pepper, H. Pitcher, L. Price, K. Riahi, A. Roehrl, H.-H. Rogner, A. Sankovski, M. Schlesinger, P. Shukla, S. Smith, R. Swart, S. van Rooijen, N. Victor, Z. Dadi, 2000. Special Report on Emissions Scenarios: A Special Report of Working Group III of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, 599 pp. 3. Meinshausen, M., Smith, S.J., Calvin, K., Daniel, J.S., Kainuma, M.L.T., Lamarque, J-F, Matsumoto, K., Montzka, S.A., Raper, S.C.B., Riahi, K., Thomson, A., Velders, G.J.M., van Vuuren, D.P.P. 2011 -2. "The RCP greenhouse gas concentrations and their extensions from 1765 to 2300", Climatic Change 109 (1-2): 213–241, doi:10.1007/s10584-011-0156-z 4. Gay García, C., O. Sánchez Meneses. 2013. Natural Handling of Uncertainties in Fuzzy Climate Models. 3rd International Conference on Simulation and Modeling Methodologies, Technologies and Applications (SIMULTECH). Special Session on Applications of Modeling and Simulation to Climatic Change and Environmental Sciences - MSCCEC 2013. July 29-31. Reykjavík, Iceland. Thomson Reuters Conference Proceedings Citation Index (ISI), INSPEC, DBLP and EI (Elsevier Index) Abstracts in: http://www.simultech.org/Abstracts/2013/MSCCEC_2013_Abstracts.htm 5. Gay García, C., O. Sánchez Meneses. 2017. A Simple Fuzzy Model to Estimate Carbon Emissions towards 2100 Consistent with Expected Temperature Increases. 7th International Conference on Simulation and Modeling Methodologies, Technologies and Applications (SIMULTECH). Special Session on Applications of Modeling and Simulation to Climatic Change and Environmental Sciences - MSCCEC 2017. 26-28 julio. Madrid, Spain, Proceedings of SIMULTECH 2017. SCITEPRESS – Science and Technology Publications, Portugal. ISBN: 978-989- 758-265-3, pp.466-473. Thomson Reuters Conference Proceedings Citation Index (ISI), INSPEC, DBLP and EI (Elsevier Index) Abstracts in: http://www.simultech.org/Abstracts/2017/MSCCES_2017_Abstracts.htm 6. Gay, C., Sánchez, O., Martínez-López, B., Nébot, Á., Estrada, F. 2013. Fuzzy Models: Easier to Understand and an Easier Way to Handle Uncertainties in Climate Change Research. In: Simulation and Modeling Methodologies, Technologies and Applications. Volume Editor(s): Pina, N., Kacprzyk, J. and Filipe, J. In the series "Advances in Intelligent and Soft Computing". Springer- Verlag GmbH Berlin Heidelberg.

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Towards 1.5°C-consistent next Paris NDCs: a comparison between Italian and Swiss transport decarbonization POSTER perspectives

V. Piana1,2

1HES-SO Vallais / Wallis; 2Economics Web Institute, Italy

The forthcoming IPCC Special Report on 1.5ºC pathways has been requested by the UNFCCC to contribute to the Talanoa Dialogue and to frame the increase in ambition of the next wave of Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) under art. 4 of the Paris Agreement. The corresponding significant decrease in short-term emissions - in a way that irreversibly drives the system towards (near) zero emissions - might tentatively be estimated in the order of magnitude of a fall of 9% per cent per year and would require the contribution of all sectors, especially those still locked in by fossil fuel complementarities across consumer habits, products, services and infrastructure, such as transport. From the vantage point of being a participant to Swiss scientific efforts to map the transition, the author compares the Swiss strategies and perspectives with what emerged in Italy, including the 2030 Sustainable Mobility Roadmap and the Energy National Strategy, in the consultation phase of which he took part in 2016 and 2017. In particular the legal values are analysed, while concluding with a few insights for advancing research and achievements.

Keywords: Swiss Energy Law, Total revision of CO2 Law, Italy's National Energy Strategy, sustainable mobility, mitigation policies, 1.5 degrees of global warming, emission pathways

Table of contents

1. From the Talanoa Dialogue to the next wave of NDCs

2. Why a yearly emissions reduction of (at least) 9% is key to remain in the 1.5ºC carbon budget

3. National and sectoral examples of past and future emission reduction at the required scale

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3.1. The trasport perspective in Italy

3.2 The trasport perspective in Switzerland 4. Comparing Italian and Swiss transport decarbonization perspectives

Acknowledgements

This work arose in the strand of research generated by the Joint Activity "The Evolution of Mobility: a Socio-Economic Analysis" by Swiss Competence Center for Energy Research CREST and SCCER Mobility. The author gratefully acknowledges the financial support by Innosuisse to the Joint Activity. Needless to say, the opinions expressed are of the author only. The full paper is available at http://www.accordodiparigi.it/piana-sisc-2018.doc

References

1. Piana Valentino, From local to global fight for limiting warming at 1.5°C: the role of NAZCA pledges, poster accepted at SISC Conference 2016 (Cagliari) 2. Piana Valentino, Dall'azione pre-2020 all'incremento dell'ambizione dei prossimi NDC, facilitato dal dialogo “Talanoa”, Newsletter of the Lombardy Foundation for the Environment, 2018. 3. IPCC, Global Warming of 1.5 °C, an IPCC special report on the impacts of global warming of 1.5 °C above pre- industrial levels and related global greenhouse gas emission pathways, in the context of strengthening the global response to the threat of climate change, sustainable development, and efforts to eradicate poverty special report, 2018. 4. Le Quéré et al., Global Carbon Budget 2015, Earth System Science Data, 7, 349-396 doi:10.5194/essd-7-349- 2015. 5. Piana V. et al., Innovative Economic Policies for Climate Change Mitigation, Lulu Publisher, first edition: 2009. 6. Ministry of Environment, Ministry of Economic Development, Ministry of Trasport, RSE, Elementi per una roadmap della mobilità sostenibile, May 2017. 7. Poggio Andrea (ed.), Green Mobility, come cambiare la città e la vita, Edizioni Ambiente, 2018. 8. Prognos, 2012. Energieperspektiven für die Schweiz bis 2050. Energienachfrage und Elektrizitätsangebot in der Schweiz 2000–2050. . 9. SCCER CREST, White paper on Swiss Climate Policy, 2018. 10. Bektas Alperen, Nguyen Khoa, Piana Valentino, Schumann René, People-centric policies for decarbonization: Testing psycho-socio-economic approaches by an agent-based model of heterogeneous mobility demand, accepted for presentation at CEF 2018 (Milan) conference. 11. Piana Valentino (2016), Implementing Paris: which more ambitious Nationally Determined Contributions can promote innovation in the transport system with sufficient urgency to contribute to 1.5ºC-consistent global greenhouse gas emission pathways, University of Oxford Conference "1.5 Degrees: Meeting the challenges of the Paris Agreement".

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Challenges for Climate Change Adaptation in the Post Paris World

Adaption through information: the impact of ICTS on OSTER

P responsiveness and compliance of climate policies

D. Vito1

1Politecnico di Milano

Local climate change policies are an important element for a global climate change adaptation scenario. They represent the local declination of adaptation strategy though concrete action national, regional or city level. Climate change adaptation strategies are often comprehensive of action that have an impact on several sectors of the society. Indeed, it is important to make them acknowledged at a capillary level. People engagement and participation, are thus an important element for make adaptation compliant and responsive. A basic level of participation, that reflects also a key lever of preparedness and compliance, is the information sharing on climate change policies. Particularly, knowledge platforms can allow bidirectional information streams from policy-maker and scientific to citizens with a wide range of action across several societal sectors, Standing to Sala 2010 [1] information and communication technologies (ICTs) are still not widely employed in the field of climate change, even if they can offer a wide range of potential solutions due to the high levels of variety and granularity such technologies could grant. First of all ICT can act on adaptation enhancing the knowledge of the problem that means awareness and better preparedness to climate change events and climate change policies implementation. Secondly, from a conceptual point of view bidirectional communication contributes to strength two mechanisms

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related to a community within its environment. The two mechanism are the information-decision mechanism and the action-reaction mechanism [2]. As instance, if we consider any action of the community on the environment in response to an extreme climate event; it is possible to argue that the use of ICT technologies help to find the best fitted solution to adaptation problem, considering the boundary conditions related to environment and community needs. This is the explication of the information-decision mechanism and ICTs can act to diffuse and catalyze the process of information gathering having a more precise estimation of the working space of the climate strategy solutions. The action-reaction mechanisms regard the capability of a community to react to a system change into the paradigm of response, and recovery. The action-reaction mechanism is indeed related to the concept of resilience. By the use of ICTs the reinforcement of the action-reaction mechanism and the catalyzation of the feedback-loops between environment-communities-decision makers could reflect on faster and better responses of communities to environmental change [2]. Such phenomenon can be observed into early warning systems for short term responses to catastrophic climate related episodes. However it can be widen on the timescale to be considered for long term adaptation and mitigation actions. Adaptation measures that employees ICT can be based on a combination of information or communication technologies [1]. If the firsts can be considered more related on sensing the environment, the seconds regards more on the increase of awareness though the population. Both the technologies contribute to involve communities as an inter and intra active element of climate change adaptation, realizing a Community Based Adaptation to climate change [3]. Community based adaptation to climate change add the participatory dimension on the elaboration of climate adaptation strategies in a way that transport the vision of Alisa [4] on the four dimensions sustainable development to the climate science. Though the Community Based Adaption to climate change approach, adaptation strategies gain in compliance as the community is involved in the process, thus would be acknowledged to the problem and to the solutions and indeed, in its more evoluted form, could have a retrofitting component due to direct participation with the citizens. In Community Based Adaptation, ICT has a mediation role of catalyzes of bidirectional information. One example is given by the Regional Adaptation knowledge platform of Asia (AKP), AKP aims to integrate of knowledge and action on adaptation to climate change at a local, national and regional level. It works both at a physical and a virtual space, with a multi stakeholder approach on governments, agencies and communities that need this knowledge to inform their responses to the challenges that climate change presents them. Its goal is to strengthen adaptive capacity and facilitate climate change adaptation in Asia [5]. The work to analytically review the case of AKP and other knowledge platforms on climate adaptation to better understand the impact of ICT on

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Community Based Adaptation and to propose some models of knowledge infrastructures for regional adaptation plans.

References

1. Sala, S. (2010). The role of information and communication technologies for community-based adaptation to climate change. Communication for Sustainable Development Initiative. Technical Paper, 1-47. 2. Vito, D. (2018). Enhancing Participation Through ICTs: How Modern Information Technologies Can Improve Participatory Approaches Fostering Sustainable Development. In Sustainable Urban Development and Globalization (pp. 131-145). Springer, Cham. 3. Ayers, J., & Forsyth, T. (2009). Community-based adaptation to climate change. Environment: science and policy for sustainable development, 51(4), 22-31. 4. Alisa GD (2007) Dimensions of sustainable development: a proposal of systematization of sustainable approaches. In: Quaderno n. 9, department of economics mathematics and statistics. University of Foggia, Italy 5. Retrived by: http://www.asiapacificadapt.net/about-us/akp 6. ITU, ICT Applications and Cybersecurity Division, Policies and Strategies Department, ITU Telecommunication Development Sector. “ICTs for e-Environment - Guidelines.

SISC Sixth Annual Conference - Book of Abstract 217 Challenges for Climate Change Adaptation in the Post Paris World

Assessing the risk of climate and land use change on

RAL freshwater ecosystem services: An indicator approach O supporting adaptation at the river basin scale

H.V. Pham1,2, A. Sperotto1,2, S. Torresan1,2, A. Critto1,2, A. Marcomini1,2

1Fondazione Centro Euro-Mediterraneo sui Cambiamenti Climatici (CMCC), via Augusto Imperatore 16, 73100 Lecce, Italy; 2Department of Environmental Sciences, Informatics and Statistics, University Ca’ Foscari Venice, Via Torino 155, 30172 Venezia-Mestre, Venice, Italy

Climate change and human interventions are modifying FreshWater Ecosystem Services (FWES) on both supply side and demand side. This research aims to identify where, when and how much the aforementioned factors are affecting these services. We first reviewed the complex effects of climatic and non-climatic drivers on the supply and the demand of FWES. The outcomes of this review orientated the development of a multi-risk assessment framework to analyze the impacts of climatic drivers (e.g. increased temperature, changing precipitation patterns, and sea level rise) and non-climatic drivers (e.g. land use change, urbanization and population dynamic) on FWES and, ultimately, human well-being. Specifically, we used the InVEST model, an integrated valuation of ecosystem services and tradeoffs model, to map and assess the changes of FWES, and to identify the “hotspots” of ecosystem services at risk under different climate, land use and management scenarios. The outcome is a set of risk maps and indicators to quantify the alterations of annual average water yield, nutrient export, annual average erosion, and annual average sediment retention. This framework is applied to the case study of the Po River basin in Italy, within the context of PROLINE-CE project, to identify and evaluate the effectiveness of the adaptation practices to improve the protection of freshwater resources and protection against floods/droughts. Ultimately, the lessons learned from this evaluation will be a part of capacity building for the relevant stakeholders, administrators, and managers of the river basin.

SISC Sixth Annual Conference - Book of Abstract 218 Challenges for Climate Change Adaptation in the Post Paris World

Can an extreme storm event change anything? Reconciling divergent views on coastal adaptation pathways on the POSTER Coromandel Peninsula, Aotearoa/New Zealand

P. Schneider1, B. Glavovic1

1 Massey University - Resource and Environmental Planning Programme - School of People, Environment and Planning - Private Bag 11222 - Palmerston North 4442 - Aotearoa / New Zealand

Escalating coastal hazard risk, epitomized by more frequent high magnitude storm impacts, is compounded by climate change. Charting adaptation pathways that meet the needs of current and future generations is challenging. What can be done to reduce the risk and build resilience? Efforts to address such challenges are far from straightforward and no single adaptation pathway promises a ‘way out’ of the coastal conundrum. A high magnitude storm impact has the potential to open up a ‘window of opportunity’ for adaptive action, and even transformation, but only if enabling conditions and processes are in place. If not, it is likely that the devastation caused by such an event changes little; and could even result in a re-doubling of efforts to maintain the status quo. We focus on the potential of such a ‘window of opportunity’ opening up after a major coastal storm event, and explore ways to create opportunities for charting adaptation pathways that reduce coastal hazard risk and build resilience. Our study is located on the west coast of Aotearoa / New Zealand’s Coromandel Peninsula, known as the Thames Coast. On the 5th of January , 2018, a high magnitude storm event caused extensive local damage to properties and infrastructure. The storm impacts, which came as a surprise even for Civil Defence and Emergency Management, prompted debate about what to do to reduce coastal hazard risk in a changing climate. We carried out long-term place-based ethnographic fieldwork to understand divergent viewpoints and to explore challenges and opportunities for reducing risk and building resilience in the long run. The Thames Coast area includes low-lying communities at high risk because of legacy planning decisions, steep and rugged terrain with a narrow coastal strip, and unfavorable climate change projections that are beginning to render business as usual unviable. For some government actors, such as the local council, maladaptive path-dependency is seemingly impossible to overcome and high magnitude impacts such as the January 5 event are regarded as part of coastal community’s lived reality. Government narratives at both a local and central government level appear to be rooted in a culture of stepwise, siloed and reactive decision- making that frames coastal hazard risk as a static ‘technical’ problem. For the New Zealand Transport Authority, tasked with managing the scenic State Highway 25, the only road along the narrow coastal

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strip, the sole viable option seems to be to restore and strengthen the Peninsula’s ‘lifeline’ as quickly as possible after a storm event, even if it takes over half a year and more than 100,000 tons of rocks to ’hold back the sea,’ for now. Many coastal property owners are demanding government intervention and ‘protection’ against the damaging impacts of coastal storms; privileging short-term private interests over long-term public interests, rights, resilience and sustainability. A growing number of people are questioning efforts to maintain the status quo and persist with business as usual practices. Some community leaders describe the latest storm event as a ‘game changer’ that requires more than restorative actions and a new pathway. There are many divergent and contending ‘voices’ in government, the private sector, the diverse communities affected as well as the scientific community about the best way forward. Although static ‘protective’ responses to dynamic coastal risks continue for the time being, there is change in the air. There is a call for enabling regulatory provisions to put an end to ‘defend at all costs’-type responses serving narrow, short-term interests. We explore the range of recommendations being made to take practical action to improve prospects for the Thames Coast. We explore how the prevailing response trajectory lines up with the recent recommendations set out by New Zealand / Aotearoa’s Climate Change Adaptation Technical Working Group, tasked with providing adaptation guidance to the government. We identify challenges and opportunities for developing and implementing a practical and enabling action plan to overcome path dependency and institutionalise proactive adaptation planning. Particular attention is focused on the roles and responsibilities that can be played by key governance actors, including those in local and central government, critical infrastructure providers, the private sector, indigenous Māori, and the research community.

SISC Sixth Annual Conference - Book of Abstract 220 Challenges for Climate Change Adaptation in the Post Paris World

Climate change impacts on fire regime: modelling results and RAL O adaptation strategies

V. Bacciu1,2, M. Salis1,3, C. Sirca1,2, D. Spano1,2

1 Euro-Mediterranean Center on Climate Change Foundation, IAFES Division (CMCC-IAFES); 2University of Sassari, Dipartimento di Agraria; 3National Research Council - Institute of Biometeorology (CNR IBIMET)

Several studies highlighted that climate change will affect wildfires in the Euro-Mediterranean area. In fact, a substantial increase in temperatures and drought conditions will likely alter the actual fire regime and may lead to an increase in fire hazard and risk. In addition, the extension of the fire season length and of the areas prone to fires, are also expected. These changes in the fire regime will likely promote an increase in the burned area; and in turn, this will also lead to an increase in emissions due to the vegetation combustion.

In this work, we propose a review of the most recent literature to draw a synthetic picture of climate change and fire interactions in the Mediterranean Basin and, in more detail, the Italian country. The comparison of the collected papers, in terms of methodologies and data used, highlights that the knowledge in climate change and fire interactions is still affected by a number of uncertainties and limitations. For instance, very few studies took into account the suppression and extinguishing activities that could limit the risk harming goods and people, or the role played by future vegetation. Advancement in knowledge and development of complex models able to take into account all key aspects that influence wildfire regime, and not just the climatic ones, could lead to more accurate analysis.

In addition, this work presents a number of solutions to increase resilience and promote adaptation to climate change, as well as practical examples from field and desk experiments. The study highlights the widespread need of a new impulse to all the policies and actions focusing on forest management and territorial management. These activities are able, on the one hand, at reducing the risk of forest fires and, on the other, at contributing to forest and natural ecosystems adaptation to climate change. Furthermore, they should be part of a decision-making process that doesn’t forget the needs of the territory, balancing benefits, costs and compromises.

Fuel management through the principles of systemic silviculture is the way to pursue and favour a higher fire resistance and resilience. Priority is therefore given to all actions that involve the reduction of surface

SISC Sixth Annual Conference - Book of Abstract 221 Challenges for Climate Change Adaptation in the Post Paris World

fuels, interrupting spatial and vertical continuity, as they can limit the fire intensity and propagation. Furthermore, a greater knowledge of the fire regime and the fire exposure, danger and potential vulnerability, through the data analysis and with the support of integrated modelling approaches, can improve the territorial development and support a more effective and efficient selection of strategies for fire prevention and active coping. Plus, due to the fire anthropogenic matrix in the Mediterranean Basin, we cannot neglect the awareness and education activities in order to reduce potentially dangerous behaviour and actions. Concluding, many factors (from research to education, from modelling to prevention through planning) must necessarily contribute synergistically to develop and implement adaptation policies.

SISC Sixth Annual Conference - Book of Abstract 222 Challenges for Climate Change Adaptation in the Post Paris World

Energy needs for adaptation: what can we learn from Paris RAL O Agreement’s NDCs?

E. De Cian1,2, M. Davide1,2

1Euro-Mediterranean Center on Climate Change; 2Ca’ Foscari University of Venice

Introduction

Energy services, including space heating and cooling, refrigeration, water pumping, water treatment and supply [1], provide a critical margin of adaptation across all sectors of the economy. New results examining how future temperature could influence energy demand based on the historical evidence suggest that by 2050 people could need up to 17% more energy for coping with a warmer climate [2]. The upshot is that adaptation will be an increasingly important driver of energy demand in a changing climate that needs to be taken into account when projecting future energy pathways. The literature emphasizes the role of energy as a keystone for sustainable development [3] and for decent living conditions [4], mostly in the context of mitigation or material/emission requirements for decent living [5] . How the demand for energy services could vary in response to the adaptation needs remains an understudied topic, as most of the attention on adaptation has been in relation to the costs. As the scale of adaptation needs increases, more energy could lead to more emissions and higher energy prices, with potentially negative consequences for poor households and economic competitiveness. Whether these implications could ultimately hinder progress towards sustainability and decarbonization, and whether the rapid, unexpected need to adapt will lock our societies in energy-intensive infrastructure remains unexplored. Indeed, we still do not have projections that integrate energy needs for adaptation into emission reduction scenarios in a coherent way, accounting for socio-economic and climate uncertainty [6].

Methodology

This paper provides new evidence on the energy needs for adaptation, highlighting the potential tensions with mitigation as well as the linkages with sustainable development goals. We rely on the NDC documents Parties have been submitted to the UNFCCC within the context of the Paris Agreement to understand national preferences regarding climate policy action. We analyze the 169 NDC documents Parties to the UNFCCC have submitted in the context of the Paris Agreement by May 2018 and identify

SISC Sixth Annual Conference - Book of Abstract 223 Challenges for Climate Change Adaptation in the Post Paris World

the adaptation objectives/plans/actions that are explicitly linked to energy, which we define energy-based adaptation solutions. We begin with an open list of actions determined by what countries prioritize in their NDCs. We examine all sections of the NDCs, including both unconditional and conditional actions. We select objectives/plans/actions that:

- Are mentioned in the adaptation section of NDCs and imply a significant direct use (e.g. irrigation) or saving (e.g. energy efficiency, building codes) of energy. We focus on energy services as well as new infrastructure that will primarily offer energy services (e.g. dams for irrigation, desalinization plants), although we do not adopt a life-cycle approach and therefore do not consider the energy intensity of the process of developing the infrastructure itself;

- Are mentioned in any other section of the NDCs (mitigation, technology general introduction, fairness and ambition) but clearly relate to adaptation either because mentioned as adaptation by other countries or because the benefits in terms of reduced vulnerability have been identified by the adaptation literature (e.g. Heating/Cooling, water heating). We highlight a set of adaptation actions that, if implemented, could save on the use of energy, e.g. adaptation alternatives to energy use, e.g. energy efficiency, early warning systems, water harvesting. After screening all NDCs (and INDCs) we revise the list of energy- based adaptation strategies and make sure that all selected options are mentioned in at least one country. Finally, we validate these options with the literature on adaptation at local and global scale [7]. Finally, supported by the literature, we establish linkages between the options identified and the SDG indicators, providing a framework for, 1) monitoring the potential energy requirements of adaptation and for 2) evaluating how adaptation to climate change can facilitate progress towards sustainability.

Results

Our analysis identifies a set of 23 key adaptation options linked to energy use that are most often mentioned in the NDCs. They pertain to 5 major sectors, namely water supply (e.g. desalinization, water conveyance and treatment), energy demand for residential services and buildings (space heating/cooling, water heating), infrastructure (multipurpose dams, electrification, transport), food (food storage, thermal comfort for livestock), and medical services. Among these, 16 actions can be considered energy-using, while 7 options are energy-saving. Several countries explicitly acknowledge the potential trade-offs between mitigation and adaptation and specify that the energy services for adaptation will be based on renewables sources. Overall, most adaptation options relate to three SDGs, SDG6 “Clean water and sanitation” (70%), SDG2 “Zero hunger” (60%) and SDG7 “Affordable and

SISC Sixth Annual Conference - Book of Abstract 224 Challenges for Climate Change Adaptation in the Post Paris World

clean energy” (40%). Clear linkages also emerge in relation to SDG9 “Industry, innovation and infrastructures”, SDG1 “No poverty” and SDG3 “Health and wellbeing”.

Conclusion

Through a bottom-up approach based on countries’ priorities as stated in their NDCs, this paper contributes to define energy services for adaptation. By identifying the relationship between energy services for adaptation and different SDG indicators, we highlight how countries’ adaptation plans can promote the achievement of several sustainable development indicators. This paper does not quantify the energy requirements of different adaptation strategies, which would require more in-detail, modelling analysis of the different processes supporting the provision of adaptation services. It provides a framework based on the evidence from the NDC priorities and validated with the literature on adaptation and energy access, setting the background for the more quantitative research that is needed on this topic.

References

1. Fell M.,J. (2017). Energy services: A conceptual review, Energy Research & Social Science 27 (2017) 129–140 2. De Cian E. and Sue Wing I. (2017). Global Energy Consumption in a Warming Climate, Environ Resource Econ https://doi.org/10.1007/s10640-017-0198-4 3. McCollum et al. (2018). Environmental Research Letters in press https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/aaafe3, Furini et al. 4. Rao, N. & Pachauri, S. (2017). Energy access and living standards: some observations on recent trends. Environmental Research Letters 12 (2): e025011. DOI:10.1088/1748-9326/aa5b0d. 5. Rao, N.D. & Baer, P. (2012). ‘Decent Living’ emissions: A conceptual framework. Sustainability 4 (4): 656-681. DOI: 10.3390/su4040656. Min, J., Rao, N. (2017), Estimating uncertainty in household energy footprints, Journal of Industrial Ecology. Chakravarty, S. and M. Tavoni (2013). Energy Economics 40, S67–S73. 6. Clarke L., K. Jiang, K. Akimoto, M. Babiker, G. Blanford, K. Fisher-Vanden, J.-C. Hourcade, V. Krey, E. Kriegler, A. Löschel, D. McCollum, S. Paltsev, S. Rose, P. R. Shukla, M. Tavoni, B. C. C. van der Zwaan, and D.P. van Vuuren, 2014: Assessing Transformation Pathways. In: Climate Change 2014: Mitigation of Climate Change. Contribution of Working Group III to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [Edenhofer, O., R. Pichs-Madruga, Y. Sokona, E. Farahani, S. Kadner, K. Seyboth, A. Adler, I. Baum, S. Brunner, P. Eickemeier, B. Kriemann, J. Savolainen, S. Schlömer, C. von Stechow, T. Zwickel and J.C. Minx (eds.)]. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA. 7. UNFCCC (2007). Climate Change. Impacts, vulnerabilities, and adaptation in developing countries. ESMAP (2011). Climate impacts on energy systems. Key issues for energy sector adaptation. Bouwer et al. (2018). Upscaling the Impacts of Climate Change in Different Sectors and Adaptation Strategies, In Sanderson et al. (eds), Adapting to climate change in Europe. Exploring sustainable pathways from local measures to wider policies

SISC Sixth Annual Conference - Book of Abstract 225 Challenges for Climate Change Adaptation in the Post Paris World

Evaluation of coastal vulnerability under changing climate and land use scenarios: a national assessment supporting POSTER integrated coastal zone management and climate adaptation

S. Torresan1,2, E. Furlan1,2, P. dalla Pozza2, D. Derepasko2, A. Critto1,2, M. Michetti1, M. Amadio1,2, J. Mysiak1,2, A. Marcomini1,2

1 Euro-Mediterranean Center on Climate Change; 2Ca’ Foscari University of Venice

Gradually increasing sea levels and extreme events related to changing climate conditions are causing serious threats to coastal areas, affecting both natural and human systems. Moreover, there is growing evidence that socio-economic dynamics (e.g. unplanned urbanization, land use and demographic changes) would increase coastal flood risk in the next decades. Understanding how natural and human- induced drivers concur to determine exposure, vulnerability and risks in coastal areas is of paramount importance for mainstreaming effective climate adaptation and risk reduction policies into coastal zone management.

In the frame of the SAVEMEDCOASTS project (www.savemedcoasts.eu), a risk assessment methodology was developed to provide guidance and operative criteria for exposure, vulnerability and risk assessment under changing climate and land-use scenarios. The overall aim of the methodology is to identify, map and prioritize natural and human targets at higher risk from climate-related hazards (sea level rise inundation and storm surge flooding) in vulnerable (flood-prone) coastal areas, providing a knowledge base for national-scale adaptation planning and disaster risk management. The method combines (i) hazard-prone areas potentially inundated by sea level rise and extreme water levels in future RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios; (ii) exposure, including a classification of ecosystem services supplied by coastal areas (provisioning, regulation and maintenance, cultural) and indicators of economic, social and manufactured capitals; (iii) vulnerability, represented by indicators of geomorphic susceptibility to flooding and adaptive capacity. The results obtained for the Italian coast include a range of spatial risk and vulnerability indicators and statistics including, the estimate of population, infrastructures, urbanized and agricultural areas at risk for different administrative units. The main steps of the methodology and the applicability of results for decision-makers and risk practitioners are here presented and discussed.

SISC Sixth Annual Conference - Book of Abstract 226 Challenges for Climate Change Adaptation in the Post Paris World

SISC Sixth Annual Conference - Book of Abstract 227 Challenges for Climate Change Adaptation in the Post Paris World

OSTER Institutions and policies for climate-smart irrigation P

J. Schnetzer1

1 Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO)

Irrigated agriculture contributes substantially to global food security, accounting for 40 percent of crop production worldwide on only 20 percent of the world’s cultivated area. It is also the biggest water user globally, accounting for about 47 percent of total withdrawals. Water extraction for irrigation from both surface and groundwater resources occurs at locally unstainable rates in many places, contributing to competition over often scarce freshwater resources and negative impacts on ecosystems and related services. Climate change is expected to exacerbate this situation, particularly in already water scarce regions, for example through changing rainfall patterns, more frequent and severe droughts and extreme rainfall events, reduced annual rainfall amounts, and higher evapotranspiration rates. While these changes are expected to increase both the water requirements and the risk of damage to infrastructure of existing irrigation systems, many farmers of rainfed cropping systems may resort to irrigation as an adaptation strategy. Irrigation systems can also involve considerable greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions due to water pumping with diesel engines or grid electricity from non-renewable energy sources. In addition, irrigated agriculture is mostly more resource-intensive compared to rainfed production systems, in particular due to the use of higher amounts of mineral fertilizers which are associated with GHG emissions at the production stage as well as application at the field. Climate-smart agriculture (CSA) is a holistic approach developed precisely to address these interlinked challenges of food security, sustainable food production, climate change adaption and climate change mitigation in an integrated way. The Compendium on Climate-Smart Irrigation (CSI), prepared by the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO) and published by the Global Alliance for Climate-Smart Agriculture (GACSA), discusses the CSA approach in the specific context of irrigated agriculture. Guided by the three main objectives of CSA – (i) sustainably increase agricultural productivity and incomes, (ii) adapt and build resilience to climate change, (iii)) reduce and/or remove GHG emissions, where possible – it provides a comprehensive overview of the relevant knowledge, concepts, tools and practices for three different levels of intervention: - The field scale (local institutional level), - The irrigation scheme or watershed scale (district or intermediate institutional level), - The river basin scale (national institutional level). The compendium

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suggests to approach CSI as an incremental process. CSI follows the principles of good irrigation practice to build productive and sustainable irrigation systems. Good irrigation practices deliver many co-benefits for adaptation and mitigation and provide the basis for successful implementation of further targeted adaptation and mitigation measures. While no-regrets solutions are the preferred adaptation measure in a context of frequently uncertain projections of rainfall distribution under climate change, an iterative process that allows for continuous adjustments guides more specific adaption actions as new evidence becomes available. Mitigation options are assessed and selected with a view to synergies and trade-offs with productivity and adaptation objectives. In this context the integration of water auditing and accounting with GHG accounting is recommended. The compendium recognizes that farmers are the central actors in CSI, as they eventually take the decisions on how to manage their irrigated cropping system and natural resources. Many field-scale practices are available to farmers that improve the delivery of irrigation systems towards at least one of the CSA objectives, for example by increasing water productivity through modernized irrigation methods, more efficient use of rainfall and improved irrigation scheduling, replacing non-renewable by renewable energy sources such as solar power. However, achieving climate-smart irrigation systems poses several challenges to farmers: (i) enhancing synergies and minimizing trade-offs between CSA objectives; (ii) proper use of new methods and technologies; (iii) avoiding or minimizing negative impacts beyond the field and farm boundary on other water uses and users and on ecosystems and the services they provide. The compendium points out that farmers alone cannot address these challenges. They require strong institutions at all levels to support the implementation of CSI with: - Identification, assessment and prioritization of options for CSI that are suitable for the given location-specific socio-economic, agro-climatic and environmental contexts, enhance synergies and minimize trade-offs between CSA objectives, minimize negative environmental externalities, and support food security and rural development; - Coherent policies that safeguard ecosystem services and equitable access to water, and create incentives for the adoption of prioritized CSI options, e.g. policies that eliminate fossil fuel subsidies; - Sound management of water resources at the river basin and watershed levels, planning of water allocation, regulations to control access to and allocation of water, and strong enforcement of regulations by local and district level institutions; - Capacity building for farmers and irrigation scheme managers on the use of new or improved irrigation methods and technologies, e.g. through extension services or institutionalized farmer field schools. The compendium presents several case studies on CSI for the different levels. A case study about Lake Urmia in Iran illustrates the impacts of past and current policies on a lake basin that is drying up as a consequence of both human activities and climate change. Past policies fostered the expansion of irrigated agriculture in order to increase production and support food security resulting in a substantive

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increase in consumptive water use and reduced inflow to the lake. As climate change is further reducing inflow, current policies aim to adapt to climate change by reducing water use by irrigated agriculture, for example through increased irrigation efficiency and changes in cropping patterns. While the latter may result in an actual decrease of consumptive water use, climate change projections for the lake basin estimate that these measures may not be enough to sufficiently increase inflow and preserve the lake’s ecosystem under medium to high GHG emission scenarios and more radical measures may be required. This assessment also underlines the need for iterative adaption processes in CSI. In conclusion, national and sub-national institutions are important actors in addressing the challenges that climate change poses to irrigated agriculture. They require strong capacities on (i) the generation and evaluation of evidence in order to design informed policies and effective incentives in support of CSI; (ii) planning approaches and tools that allow integration both horizontally, across different sectors and spatial scales (watershed or river basin), and vertically, combining farmer-driven bottom-up processes with institution-driven top- down processes; and (iii) effective transmission of knowledge, skills and know-how to farmers, i.e. capacity development. The building of a solid evidence-base can further be strengthened through close collaboration with universities and research institutes. CSI also requires long-term commitment and continuous monitoring and evaluation by institutions in order to allow for incremental improvements and adaptation of irrigation systems.

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RAL Linking Food System Shocks with Conflict and Migration O

C. Dias1

1 SRUC

Episodic food insecurity is linked to historical incidences of conflict and migration, from the Irish Potato Famine to the Arab Spring. Conflict and migration can be both triggered and worsened by food insecurity. With the growing threat of climate change, the number of food system shocks, for example, droughts and floods, the potential increase in food insecurity is growing and so it is vital that policy makers are able to better understand its relationship with conflict and migration. However, research addressing conflict, migration and food security together is lacking. Moreover, there is a ‘streetlight problem’ whereby only countries already engaged in conflict and migration are explored. This work investigates links between household vulnerabilities and their responses (adaptive or transformational) to food system shocks in both Africa and Latin America. Shocks will be identified as real price spikes of staple foods in each country using the WFP food price database in conjunction with Consumer Price Indices, and responses of conflict and migration will be quantified. How can conflict and migration be correlated to food price shocks between 1990 and 2014? This will firstly look at the global relationships between food prices, conflict and migration, paying special attention to where there are consecutives months of high prices. Secondly, it will explore any time lags in household responses and explore why this occurs. Finally, the research will explore the role of household capital in driving a household to engage in conflict or migration, based on the five capitals of natural, human, social, manufactured, and financial.

SISC Sixth Annual Conference - Book of Abstract 231 Challenges for Climate Change Adaptation in the Post Paris World

The role of water stress and the drivers of agricultural OSTER

P productivity in the Mekong River Basin

S. Stemberger1, F. Larosa1,2, Y. Ji1, M Ellena1

1Ca' Foscari University of Venice - Italy; 2Centro Euro-Mediterraneo sui Cambiamenti Climatici (CMCC) - Italy

The Mekong River is a key resource for development. It is indeed a source of water, food, energy, and services characterized by a wide ecosystem multiplicity. The key economic sectors of the area are agriculture, aquaculture and energy production and those depend directly on water resources. In its basin, agricultural development is the key that contributes to economic growth and to poverty reduction [1], by sustaining 70 percent of the population’s livelihood, providing food security and reducing poverty [2]. Rain-fed cultivation is the most widespread agricultural method, thus extensive irrigation systems are needed to maintain a balance between water quantity and optimize yields [3]. This massive use of water explains why the agriculture is at present the most prevalent water-related sector, and why over 60 percent of its population is having water related occupations. To date, farmers produce annually an amount of rice that feed around 300 million people [4], which corresponds to a dedicated cultivated land equal to 10 million ha [5]. A continuity in the availability of water is therefore fundamental for agricultural production. Demographic expansion and economic development, together with climate change, will pose increasing challenges to water availability in this region.

In light of the state-of-the-art, we focused our research on the agricultural sector to assess the contribution of physical, economic and demographic drivers to the agricultural economy. The paper investigates on the relationship between environmental, socio-economic and biophysical variables and agricultural GDP in the selected area. To achieve this goal, we used a spatially-explicit econometric approach, providing the harmonisation between several secondary data sources, within a consistent methodological framework in line with previous literature. Spatial data on the land cover, on agricultural land extension, GDP, population and water stress variables were collected from several project sources. We linked spatial information standardising them on a 0.5x0.5-degree grid mask [6] within the basin. We sampled 449 grids. This allowed us to shift the narrative from a country level to a transboundary area. We used a spatial regression model to study the relation between georeferenced Agricultural Value Added (%GDP) and a set of explanatory variables for the year 2010. The employment of spatial econometric techniques increases the model fit and smooths intrinsic biases. Moreover, it is consistent

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with empirical economics literature and frames our research question in a fully replicable and testable setting. Reasons behind the model choice must be detected in our interest for heterogeneous effects: this paper provides a comprehensive view of the selected area, highlighting the grids where water stresses are more severe.

Results show that both demographic and physical factors positively and significantly contribute to agricultural economic development. Baseline Water Stress also impacts Agricultural Value Added (%GDP) but the coefficient lacks in statistical significance. The model we used employs a Maximum Likelihood Estimation approach and fits relatively well (R²=0.62) but was not fully capable of removing the error spatial autocorrelation issues. The choice of an on-year methodology was mainly driven by the Baseline Water Stress [7], which is parametrized on punctual year observation (2010) over the long- term water supply. We managed to achieve high spatial heterogeneity and to use it as core component in the regression analysis. Despite the limitation in exploring socio-economic and climate change-induced shocks we were able to detect a contribution of the independent variable to the agricultural economy of the region. We finally address concerns around uncertainty providing detailed explanation of the challenges encountered throughout the research.

Extensions to the study could be performed with the use of temperature anomalies on year 2010 over a baseline time-frame. Besides, future developments of the study could include climate change impacts, in particular towards flood extremes and temperature extremes. For designing and implementing measures for adapting to the challenges and possibilities of changing climate, ideally states of expected future geophysical changes, the certainty and limitations of presently available knowledge about the expected change, and availability of emerging future technologies and management options are needed. Whereas scenarios of possible future change are readily available. However, the knowledge about certainty and future options is hardly available at the present time. Instead, we know that the state of the geophysical system, the knowledge about it, and the options for dealing with this change are continuously changing – all three systems are instationary and will remain so for the foreseeable future. Thus, any decision about adaptive measures need to take these instationarities into account. In most cases it will be advantages to take a decision as late as possible, so to optimize the knowledge about certainty of geophysical perspectives and advancement of technological and managerial options. On the other hand, planning must decide for which time window the measures are meant. Any near-term implementation should allow for future improvements, such as additional fortification, even if the local conditions have been modified for other purposes. Finally, early consultation processes with stakeholders will allow for better acceptance of implementing and later on modifying measures – but also perceptions

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and preferences among stakeholders may be instationary as well. The problem is discussed and illustrated with examples of coastal defense and urban planning.

References

1. Viet Nguyen, C., & Ngoc Tran, A.N. (2013). The role of crop land during economic development: evidence from rural Vietnam, European Review of Agricultural Economics, Vol 41(4), p. 561-582. 2. Smith, W. (2013). Agriculture in the Central Mekong Delta, Overseas Development Institute, Shaping Policy for Development Report, London. 3. Mekong River Commission. (2016). IWRM-based Basin Development Strategy 2016-2020, Vientiane, Lao PDR. 4. Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO). (2012). Irrigation in Southern and Eastern Asia in figures AQUASTAT Survey – 2011, FAO Water Report, Rome. 5. World Wildlife Fund (WWF). (2016). The Role of the Mekong River In the Economy, WWF– Greater Mekong. 6. Murakami, D. and Yamagata, Y. (2016). Estimation of gridded population and GDP scenarios with spatially explicit statistical downscaling. Environ. Res. Lett. arXiv preprint arXiv:1610.09041. 7. Gassert, F., Landis, M., Luck, M., Reig, P., & Shiao, T. (2014). Aqueduct Global Maps 2.1: Constructing decision- relevant global water risk indicators. World Resources Institute.

SISC Sixth Annual Conference - Book of Abstract 234 Challenges for Climate Change Adaptation in the Post Paris World

The triple instationarity – a challenge for implementing RAL O adaptation

H. von Storch1

1Institute of Coastal Research @HZG

For designing and implementing measures for adapting to the challenges and possibilities of changing climate, ideally states of expected future geophysical changes, the certainty and limitations of presently available knowledge about the expected change, and availability of emerging future technologies and management options are needed. Whereas scenarios of possible future change are readily available. However, the knowledge about certainty and future options is hardly available at the present time. Instead, we know that the state of the geophysical system, the knowledge about it, and the options for dealing with this change are continuously changing – all three systems are instationary and will remain so for the foreseeable future. Thus, any decision about adaptive measures need to take these instationarities into account. In most cases it will be advantages to take a decision as late as possible, so to optimize the knowledge about certainty of geophysical perspectives and advancement of technological and managerial options. On the other hand, planning must decide for which time window the measures are meant. Any near-term implementation should allow for future improvements, such as additional fortification, even if the local conditions have been modified for other purposes. Finally, early consultation processes with stakeholders will allow for better acceptance of implementing and later on modifying measures – but also perceptions and preferences among stakeholders may be instationary as well. The problem is discussed and illustrated with examples of coastal defense and urban planning.

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A process for CO2 negative emission through hydrogen from RAL O biomass, ocean liming and CO2 storage

S. Caserini¹, B. Barreto¹, C. Lanfredi¹, G. Cappello², D. Ross Morrey², M. Grosso1

1Politecnico di Milano Dipartimento di Ingegneria Civile e Ambientale, Milano, Italy; 2CO2Apps, Italy

There is a mounting evidence that huge quantities of carbon will need to be removed from the atmosphere to reach the ambitious climate targets established in the Paris Agreement of limiting global temperature increase to well below 2°C of pre-industrial levels (let alone to pursue all efforts to stay below +1.5°C) A new patented process that allows the removal of CO2 from the atmosphere, combining industrial technologies already available with ocean alkalinisation and CO2 storage, is presented. The process aims to overcome limiting factors of Negative Emission technologies, such as cost and energy requirements (for direct air capture), logistics of spreading materials over large areas (for enhanced weather technologies), and potential competition for land and freshwater (for afforestation and bioenergy with carbon capture and storage). Furthermore, the reduction of the increase of oceans acidity is also achieved. The overall proposed process, in the case of use of biomass as a source of energy, is described, where it is possible to identify the following steps:

• an oxygen blown reformer where the biomass is converted into raw hot synthetic gas (syngas) formed mainly by H2, CH4, CO, CO2, tar oils and H2O;

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• a thermal steam cracker/reformer working at temperature above 1.200°C where the hydrocarbons are transformed in H2 and CO;

• a lime kiln that uses carbonaceous rocks and the enthalpy of the hot syngas from the cracker to produce CaO (quicklime);

• a unit to produce Ca(OH)2 - known as slaked lime - from the quicklime;

• the normal use of quicklime (i.e. in the building sector as mortar, in agriculture, etc.) where it is carbonized by the CO2 from the air;

• to have efficient negative emissions of CO2, slaked lime is used for ocean liming [1] dissolved into the sea water by proper vessels; in this case oceans act also as a sorbent of atmospheric CO2;

• the cold syngas coming out from the lime kiln with the CO2 formed during the calcination process is sent to a water gas shift reactor (WGSR) to convert the CO in H2 and CO2;

• CO2 and H2 are then separated by a proper device;

• CO2 produced by the process (from the fuel and from the limestone) is sent to its final storage that could be either geological (i.e. in saline aquifers, CCS) or submarine glass-ceramic containers (SCS, [2]);

• H2 is the valuable by-product of the process and is used for ammonia synthesis or liquid fuels production, offsetting part of all the costs of the process, thus generating “low cost” negative emissions.

The mass and energy balances [3] show that the total CO2 removal generated by the process is 2.6 ton per ton of biomass used; by assuming that the avoided emission related to the energy content of H2 exported to external users is 0.43 ton, the overall CO2 benefit of the process increases to 3.0 ton per ton of biomass. A preliminary cost analysis resulted in an average levelized cost of 119 $ per ton of CO2 removed; considering the revenue from the produced energy, the cost falls to 63 $/t CO2. The higher efficiency in carbon removal obtained by combining biomass gasification, calcination, and ocean liming allows to reduce the amount of biomass required by BECCS to achieve negative emissions, and thanks

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to the valuable H2 produced it lowers the costs of CO2 removal from the atmosphere. Furthermore, the

CO2 emission avoided by the electric energy that could be generated by the external use of H2, 0.43 t

CO2 is only 13% higher than the one avoided in the same grid by the electricity generated by a biomass fired power plant with CCS (0,5 t CO2), assessed based on 28.4% efficiency with CO2 capture and compression and a further 1.7% losses due to transport and injection into geological storage. The potential environmental impacts of increasing ocean alkalinity rely on the variation in the pH level produced during the ocean liming process. The variation of ocean alkalinity also influences the saturation state of carbonate minerals that are essentials for marine carbonate-producing organisms an increase in alkalinity can also influence the Carbon Compensation Depth increasing the extent of sediment exposed to elevated saturation states, the calcification and accordingly the net removal of CaCO3 from the ocean. The proposed technology aims at producing a valuable hydrogen-based commodity to partially offset the cost of generating negative emissions. With its capability to be operated also on coal, this path has a wider application than BECCS and can lower the two main limitations of extensive negative emission generation through BECCS, i.e. the biomass availability and its impacts on the ecosystems. By producing metal hydroxides such Ca(OH)2 and dissolving them in seawater to increase its alkalinity through ocean liming, the process also helps reducing the ongoing ocean acidification, thanks to the capture and storage of atmospheric CO2 in the seawater as metal bicarbonates. Although industrial alternatives exist for the use slaked lime (i.e. to capture CO2 from an industrial flue gas), for the massive quantities of negative emissions required in the next decades, the large buffer power of the ocean necessarily needs to be considered. An aspect that should be taken into account is that the addition of alkalinity to the oceans and the submarine carbon storage in glass capsules require an adequate regulatory framework. Some of the complexity relies in the fact that interventions on coastal waters would fall under each national administration, while open ocean addition is under international oversight [4]. The United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS), signed in 1982, is the legal framework for most of matters related to seas and oceans. Other regulations, as the 1996 London Protocol to the Convention on the Prevention of Marine Pollution by Dumping of Wastes are important for the permitting, monitoring and the long-term liability of storage in oceans. Although further research is needed to assess the feasibility of this technology as a large scale negative emission option, and the related political, social and environmental challenges, the results shown above are promising and could be considered in the

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path towards the unprecedented scale-up of carbon removal from the atmosphere required to avoid irreversible effects on the climate at the timescale of centuries to millennia and longer.

References

1. Renforth P., Jenkins B.G., Kruger T. (2013) Engineering challenges of ocean liming. Energy, 60, 442-452 2. Caserini S., Dolci G., Azzellino A., Lanfredi C., Rigamonti L., Barreto B., Grosso M. (2017) Evaluation of a new technology for carbon dioxide submarine storage in glass capsules. International Journal of Greenhouse Gas Control, 60, 140–155. 3. Caserini S., Barreto B., Lanfredi C., Rigamonti L., CAPPELLO G., Ross Morrey D., Grosso M. (2018) Affordable CO2 negative emission through hydrogen from biomass, ocean liming and CO2 storage. Proceedings of the International Conference on Negative CO2 Emissions, May 22-24, 2018, Göteborg, Sweden. 4. Renforth P., Henderson G. (2017) Assessing ocean alkalinity for carbon sequestration. Rev. Geophysics, 55, 636 – 674.

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Are European countries under reporting emissions of the RAL O powerful greenhouse gas HFC-23?

M. Maione1,2, F. Graziosi1,2, J. Arduini1,2, U. Giostra1, P. Cristofanelli2

1University of Urbino, DiSPeA; 2National Research Council of Italy, ISAC

HFC-23 or trifluoromethane (CHF3) is a potent hydrofluorocarbon greenhouse gas whose 100 year integrated global warming potential (GWP) is 12 400 and whose atmospheric lifetime is 228 years.

Hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs) were introduced as replacements for ozone-depleting chlorofluorocarbons∼ (CFCs) and hydrochlorofluorocarbons (HCFCs). Many of them have and are being used as a direct replacement for specific applications. This is not the case for the high GWP HFC-23, which is essentially emitted as a by-product of the refrigerant chlorodifluoromethane HCFC-22 (CHClF2) production, resulting from the over-fluorination of chloroform (CHCl3). In addition, HFC-23 has minor emissive uses in air conditioning, fire extinguishers and semiconductor manufacture and from aluminium production.

In developed countries HFC-23 emissions were controlled as part of the “F-gases” under the Kyoto Protocol. Control measures are reinforced under the Paris Agreement, adopted in 2015 at the Conference of the Parties of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). An essential part of the Paris Agreement is the "transparency framework", to ensure accurate, transparent, comparable, consistent and complete reporting of GHG inventories, building on the methodologies developed by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). These reporting requirements are based on "bottom-up" methods, which rely on statistical activity data and source- specific emission factors. However, these inventories are affected by significant uncertainties, due to uncertain emission factors, to the occurrence of unaccounted sources and to the incompleteness of activity data.

For HFC-23 the accuracy of European bottom-up inventories has been called into question for the first time in 2011 by Keller et al. (1), who found large discrepancies between Western Europe National

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Inventory Reports and emissions estimated at country level using a so-called “top-down” approach consisting in the combination of 2-hourly atmospheric in-situ measurements at two European sites with Lagrangian transport simulations. Such discrepancy was confirmed by a more recent study by Simmonds et al. (2), also based on atmospheric measurements and an inversion routine. Indeed, Top-down” methods have been proved to be an efficient tool for the verification of the consistency between “bottom- up” emission inventories and GHG concentrations measured in the atmosphere. Such approach has been successfully used in several scientific studies at the global down to the regional scale. However, the accuracy of the emissions derived from inverse modelling, and the spatial scales at which the emissions can be estimated, depend on the quality and density of measurements and the quality of the atmospheric models. In this line, a further HFC-23 European observation site could be important in order to improve the accuracy of the inversion results.

High-frequency and high-quality measurements of HFC-23 started in 2017 at the GAW-WMO (Global Atmospheric Watch-World Meteorological Organisation) observatory at Mt. Cimone (Italy), a site embedded into the larger multinational global atmospheric measurement program AGAGE (Advanced Global Atmospheric Gases Experiment). The availability of this additional data set could be relevant in better constraining an area, Northern Italy, that Keller et al. (1) have identified as a particularly strong source region.

For this study we have used observations from four European sites: Mace Head (IE), Tacolneston (UK), Jungfraujoch (CH) and Monte Cimone (IT), all part of the AGAGE network, combined with the FLEXPART dispersion model and a Bayesian inversion method, with the aim of deriving emissions of HFC-23 from the whole European Geographic Domain and from nine regions within it. The obtained estimates have been then compared with the annual emissions that the European countries submit every year to the UNFCCC.

Our results confirm the findings from the previous studies, i.e. the under reporting of some European country of HFC-23 emissions, even if the magnitude and distribution of the discrepancy differs. The co- location of HFC-23 emission hot spots with HCFC-22 production plants is also confirmed, as well as the occurrence of significant emissions in Northern Italy.

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References

1. Keller, C. A., Brunner, D., Henne, S., Vollmer, M.K., O’Doherty, S., Reimann, S.: Evidence for under‐reported western European emissions of the potent greenhouse gas HFC‐23. Geophys. Res. Lett., 38, L15808, doi:10.1029/2011GL047976, 2011 2. Simmonds, P. G., Rigby, M., McCulloch, A., Vollmer, M. K., Henne, S., Mühle, J., O'Doherty, S., Manning, A. J., Krummel, P. B., Fraser, P. J., Young, D., Weiss, R. F., Salameh, P. K., Harth, C. M., Reimann, S., Trudinger, C. M., Steele, L. P., Wang, R. H. J., Ivy, D. J., Prinn, R. G., Mitrevski, B., and Etheridge, D. M.: Recent increases in the atmospheric growth rate and emissions of HFC-23 (CHF3) and the link to HCFC-22 (CHClF2) production, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 18, 4153-4169, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-4153-2018, 2018.

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CMIP5 future projections in the main water fluxes OSTER

P participating in soil-atmosphere interaction

O.C. Penalba1,2, V.C. Pántano1,2

1Departamento de Ciencias de la Atmósfera y los Océanos, FCEN, Universidad de Buenos Aires, Bs. As., Argentina; 2Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas (CONICET), Bs. As., Argentina

The strong and complex soil-atmosphere interaction implies projected changes in precipitation and evapotranspiration impacting on the soil water balance. The several variables involved in this interaction are calculated differently in each Global Climate Model (GCM), according to their physical and thermodynamics equations and specific parameterizations. Therefore, it is necessary to identify those soil water fluxes sensible to changes in the atmosphere for each GCM before analyzing soil response to climate change. In this study,future changes in water fluxes involved in soil-atmosphere interaction are analyzed based on future scenarios of climate change from different GCMs in South America, with special emphasis on south-eastern South America. Firstly, we analyze future changes of precipitation and evapotranspiration, as the main outgoing and incoming fluxes of water. Secondly, focused on a rainfed agriculture region in south-eastern South America, we analyze the climate sensitivity of soil moisture and runoff to precipitation and evapotranspiration. The interest of this region is because the rainfed agricultural production is one of the main economic activities. This region is characterised by a strong feedback between soil moisture and precipitation through the role of evapotranspiration. Therefore, the study of these water fluxes is of special interest for the regional economy because of the impact on the crops´ yields. Monthly precipitation, evapotranspiration, surface and total runoff, surface and total soil moisture content were obtained from seven Global Climate Models selected from the Phase 5 of the Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project (CMIP5): ACCESS 1.0, CanESM2, CESM1 (CAM5), EC- EARTH, IPSL-CM5AMR, MIROC5, MPI-ESM-MR. Two different periods were used: 1970–2005 as climate reference for historical experiment and 2065–2100 for projections under the Representative Concentration Pathways scenarioRCP 8.5.As an example, monthly results are here described for January and July. Initially, precipitation was validated in comparison with reanalysis data from GPCC Full Data

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Reanalysis Version 6. In January, precipitation is underestimated over the Amazonas and in the southeast of South America by more than 50% in percentage bias whereas it is overestimated over the Andes, south of 40°S and northeast Brazil. In July, precipitation is underestimated in almost all South America except for the Andes and Patagonia. ACCESS 1.0 behaves differently, with overestimation in almost all South America. The agreement between the seven GCMs with respect to projected increases and decreases in precipitation and evapotranspiration was quantified for South America. In particular, future changes were considered when they are higher than 10%. During January, most of the models agree on increase in south-eastern South America, eastern Brazil and Peru, whereas decrease is predicted for extreme north and extreme south of South America. During July, most of the models agree on decrease in the east and northeast of Brazil and center of Chile. Evapotranspiration is also projected to increase in most of South America, but the increase is higher than 10% only in south-eastern South America during January and extreme south of South America during July. In the region of interest, south-eastern South America, both increases in precipitation and evapotranspiration are compensated and the balance between both variables (PET=precipitation-evapotranspiration) presents small change. In order to evaluate how sensitive are soil moisture and runoff to PET values, different conditional probabilities were quantified in south-eastern South America. The coherence was evaluated considering probabilistic intervals of percentiles (P) of the entire frequency distribution: P80. Contingency Table of conditional probabilities was tested through Chi-Square distribution. This analysis reveals which are the more sensible variables for each GCM: surface soil moisture and surface runoff for ACCESS 1.0; surface and total soil moisture and total runoff for CanESM2; surface soil moisture and surface and total runoff for CESM1-CAM5; none for EC-EARTH; surface soil moisture IPSL- CM5A-MR; surface soil moisture for MIROC5; surface and total runoff for MPI-ESM-MR. Finally, future changes in the more sensible variables were analyzed. For example, increase is projected in surface runoffby ACCESS 1.0and CESM1-CAM5in both January and July whereas small change is projected by MPI-ESM-MR. Similarly, increase is projected in total runoff by CanESM2 and CESM1-CAM5 in both January and July whereas small change is projected by MPI-ESM-MR. In the cases that models project increase in runoff, this variable is better responding to changes in precipitation than changes in evapotranspiration. In conclusion, soil response to changes in the interaction with atmosphere (through precipitation and evapotranspiration fluxes) depends on each specific GCM. Even though both precipitation and evapotranspiration are projected to increase, some models showed that the more

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sensible soil fluxes respond to increases in precipitation. Based on the results of this study, the ensemble of soil moisture and runoff is not recommended but we better suggest to study separately only for those variable sensible to climate change.

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Emissions from livestock and the role of diets in driving OSTER

P climate change

P. Stevenson1, F. di Leonardo2

1Compassion in World Farming UK; 2 Compassion in World Farming Italia

The UN Food and Agriculture Organisation estimates that the livestock sector is responsible for greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions of 7.1 gigatonnes CO2-e per annum, i.e.14.5 percent of human- induced emissions [1]. Livestock supply chains emit 44 percent of anthropogenic methane (CH4) emissions, 53 percent of anthropogenic nitrous oxide (N2O) emissions and 5 percent of anthropogenic carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions [1]. A range of factors contribute to livestock’s emissions of which the largest is the production of feed [1]. Large quantities of synthetic fertilisers are used to grow feed crops for animals [2]. The manufacture of these fertilisers results in sizeable CO2 emissions [3]. The application of these fertilisers leads to substantial N2O emissions [4]. Other factors related to feed production that contribute to emissions include manure deposition on pasture and land use change [1]. The need for soy as animal feed leads to the expansion of cropland into forests and other ecosystems which results in the release of stored carbon into the atmosphere [3]. Enteric fermentation from ruminants and manure storage and processing also add to livestock’s emissions [1]. All sectors need to reduce their emissions to meet the Paris targets but on a business-as-usual basis, the emissions from food and farming will increase substantially [5]. Supply side measures will be insufficient on their own to prevent an increase in farming’s GHG emissions, let alone achieve a sufficient reduction [6], [7]. Our consumption patterns will have to change as well [8]. Livestock generally produce more emissions per unit of nutrition produced than plant-based foods [5]. Hilal Elver, the UN Special Rapporteur on the right to food says: “The world’s current consumption pattern of meat and dairy products is a major driver of climate change and climate change can only be effectively addressed if demand for these products is reduced” [10]. Studies show that, on a business-as-usual (BAU) basis, GHG emissions from food and agriculture will be very much higher in 2050 than now [5], [6]. Springmann et al (2016) looked at the

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emissions budget in 2050 that will be needed to keep temperature increases to below 2˚C [5]. They then calculated what proportion of the total emissions budget will be taken up by food in 2050. They found that under a BAU diet, 52% of total emissions will be food-related in 2050 The above studies make it clear that only a move in much of the world to diets with substantially lower consumption of meat and dairy products will enable the GHG emissions from food and agriculture to be lower in 2050 than they are now [5], [6]. A reduction in meat and dairy consumption would not only reduce GHG emissions but would have important health and environmental co-benefits. Studies show that reducing meat and dairy consumption by about 50% would lead to a lower incidence of heart disease and reduced use of arable land, freshwater, energy and pesticides as well as reduced GHG emissions, nitrogen and phosphorus surpluses, deforestation and soil erosion [11], [12], [13]. How can dietary change be encouraged? A first step is to create greater awareness of the impact of our diets on climate change. Governments often say that they cannot tell people what to eat. Of course they cannot do this. However, Governments could do much more to inform the public that our current diets make a substantial contribution to climate change. Focus group research has been conducted in the U.S., China, Brazil and UK [14]. All the focus groups demonstrated a general belief that it is the role of government to spearhead efforts to address unsustainable levels of meat consumption. The focus groups believe that Governments overestimate the risk of public backlash and that soft interventions are likely to be well received, e.g. ‘nudging’ consumers towards more sustainable choices. The study reporting the focus group research said: “More interventionist – but necessary – approaches such as taxation do risk public resistance, but focus group respondents thought this would be short-lived, particularly if people understood the policy rationale”. In conclusion, more attention should be given by policy-makers to the role in climate change mitigation of reduced consumption of meat and dairy products. Keywords: Climate change, meat, diet, health, environment.

Keywords: Climate change, meat, diet, health, environment

References

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1. Gerber P.J., Steinfeld H., Henderson B., Mottet A., Opio C., Dijkman J., Falcucci A. & Tempio G. (2013), Tackling climate change through livestock – A global assessment of emissions and mitigation. Food and Agriculture Organisation, Rome. 2. Eds. Sutton M.A., Howard C.M., Erisman J.W., Billen G., Bleeker A., Grennfelt P., van Grinsven H. & Grizzetti B. (2011), The European Nitrogen Assessment. Cambridge University Press. 3. World Bank (2011), Minding the stock: bringing public policy to bear on livestock sector development. Report No. 44010-GLB. 4. Sutton M. et al (2013), Our Nutrient World: The challenge to produce more food and energy with less pollution. Global Overview of Nutrient Management. Centre for Ecology and Hydrology, Edinburgh 5. Springmann M., Godfray H.C., Rayner M. & Scarborough P. (2016), Analysis and valuation of the health and climate change cobenefits of dietary change. PNAS vol. 113 no. 15: 4146–4151. 6. Bajželj B., Richards K.S., Allwood J.M., Smith P., Dennis J.S., Curmi E. & Gilligan C.A. (2014), Importance of food- demand management for climate mitigation. Nature Climate Change, Vol 4, October 2014. http://www.nature.com/doifinder/10.1038/nclimate2353 7. Bailey R., Froggatt A. & Wellesley L. (2014), Livestock – Climate Change’s Forgotten Sector. The Royal Institute of International Affairs, London. 8. Van de Kamp M.E., Seves S.M., & Temme E.H.M. (2018), Reducing GHG emissions while improving diet quality. BMC Public Health 20;18(1):264. 9. Garnett T. (2011,. Where are the best opportunities for reducing greenhouse gas emissions in the food system (including the food chain)? Food Policy 36, S23-S32 10. Elver H. (2015), Interim Report, 5 August 2015. A/70/287 11. Westhoek H., Lesschen J.P., Leip A., Rood T., Wagner S., De Marco A., Murphy-Bokern D., Pallière C., Howard C.M., Oenema O. & Sutton M.A. (2015), Nitrogen on the Table: influence of food choices on nitrogen emissions and the European environment. European Nitrogen Assessment Special Report on Nitrogen and Food. Centre for Ecology & Hydrology, Edinburgh 12. Friel S., Dangour A.D., Garnett T., Lock K., Chalabi Z., Roberts I., Butler A., Butler C.D. Waage J., McMichael A.J. & Haines A. (2009), Health and Climate Change 4: Public health benefits of strategies to reduce greenhouse-gas emissions: food and agriculture. The Lancet, Vol 374, No 9706, p2016-2025 13. Aston L. M., Smith J.N. & Powles J.W. (2012). Impact of a reduced red and processed meat dietary pattern on disease risks and greenhouse gas emissions in the UK: a modelling study. BMJ Open Vol 2, Issue 5 2012,2e001072 14. Wellesley J., Happer C. & Froggatt A. (2015). Changing Climate, Changing Diets: Pathways to Lower Meat Consumption. Chatham House.

SISC Sixth Annual Conference - Book of Abstract 248

Global Carbon, Climate Feedbacks and Emission Trends

Factors determining energy budget inter-hemispheric

OSTER asymmetries and cross-equatorial transport anomalies during P the 20th Century

V. Lembo1, D. Folini2, M. Wild2, P. Lionello3

1Meteorologisches Institut, Universität Hamburg; 2Institute for Atmospheric and Climate Sciences, ETH Zürich; 3Dipartimento di Scienze e Tecnologie Biologiche e Ambientali, Universitá del Salento

We analyze the evolution of inter-hemispheric asymmetries in the energy budgets (EBs) and near- surface temperature anomalies during the 20th Century, as given in Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project, phase 5 (CMIP5) simulations. We also consider the cross-equatorial energy transports (CET) in the atmosphere and in the oceans, in order to evidence how EB asymmetries affect the redistribution of energy between the two hemispheres. Two different experimental settings have been considered, one including only the spatially homogeneous evolving greenhouse gas forcing (GHG), and another one a realistic superposition of all known evolving forcings (ALL), such as aerosols and volcanic eruptions.

This study shows that, according to the CMIP5 models, the response of the climate system to the ongoing forcing during the 20th century has differed substantially from what would have resulted from an increase in GHG concentration alone. In the GHG ensemble the Northern Hemisphere (NH) warms more than the Southern Hemisphere (SH), while both hemispheres exhibit similar and positive EB anomalies at the TOA, mainly due to increasing shortwave (SW) absorption and with no significant variations of cross-equatorial energy transports (CET). On the contrary, in the ALL ensemble the two hemispheres warm similarly, while the SH exhibits a positive EB anomaly twice as large as in the NH, due to a reduced LW emission (Outgoing Longwave Radiation, OLR) in the SH, with oceanic CET anomalies directed towards the NH. The EB asymmetry in ALL is ascribed to the asymmetry in OLR changes, which is explained by the different role of clouds in the two hemispheres. The ocean heat content (OHC) tendency per unit surface area is similar in the two hemispheres, so that the asymmetries in ALL EB determine CET changes. We evidence that CET changes in the ALL ensemble are associated with the inter-hemispheric asymmetry in the aerosol forcing, which is stronger in the NH than in the SH.

SISC Sixth Annual Conference - Book of Abstract 249

Global Carbon, Climate Feedbacks and Emission Trends

We find no significant relation between CETs and inter-hemispheric near-surface temperature asymmetries in GHG, partly due to the large model spread. Generally, deficits in modeled CET for present- day conditions are not ascribed to forcings and feedbacks, rather they are intrinsic of models.

References

1. Lembo V, Folini D, Wild M, and Lionello P (2018) Inter-hemispheric differences in energy budgets and cross- equatorial transport anomalies during the 20th Century. Clim Dyn (under review).

SISC Sixth Annual Conference - Book of Abstract 250

Global Carbon, Climate Feedbacks and Emission Trends

Monitoring the carbon budget of ecosystems within the ICOS OSTER

P RI network: CO2 fluxes over vineyards

N. Vendrame1; L. Tezza1; A. Pitacco1

1University of Padova, DAFNAE

The rapid technological development of the last few decades enabled the implementation of stations monitoring vegetation-atmosphere exchanges at several sites around the world. The micrometeorological technique of eddy covariance is today widely applied to measure energy and mass fluxes over different ecosystems, providing direct quantification of processes involved in biogeochemical cycles. In particular, local measurements of CO2 fluxes are of great interest because they can be integrated in global inversion models or compared with remote sensing estimation, improving the understanding and quantification of global carbon cycle. In the late 90s, the FLUXNET project was launched to form a global network of eddy covariance stations, making flux data freely available to the research community. More recently, long-term observatory networks carrying out highly standardized measurements of carbon fluxes have been implemented: the National Ecological Observatory Network (NEON) in the United States and the Integrated Carbon Observation System (ICOS) in Europe. ICOS is a strategic research infrastructure that includes observations at atmospheric, oceanic and terrestrial ecosystem sites, with the aim to enable high quality research on climate change and increase usability of these data.

However, long-term flux observations on agricultural ecosystems are still scarce compared to forests or other natural ecosystems. The monitoring of vegetation-atmosphere exchanges over crops gives valuable information on the role of this land-use type on global biogeochemical cycles. Additionally, continuous measurements of GHG fluxes are essential to evaluate the effect of different management practices, providing guidelines for farmers and policy makers on the best practices to adopt to increase environmental sustainability. Indeed, agriculture can play a positive role in the global carbon budget through reduction of emissions and increase of soil carbon sequestration.

SISC Sixth Annual Conference - Book of Abstract 251

Global Carbon, Climate Feedbacks and Emission Trends

Perennials, in comparison with annual crops, have some biological, structural and management peculiarities (e.g. reduced tillage, grass-covered alleys), which allow them to potentially sequester more CO2 from the atmosphere. Nevertheless, only few studies have been conducted over this kind of ecosystems. Here, we present three years of CO2 fluxes (May 2014-April 2017) on a vineyard in North Eastern Italy, which is a candidate ICOS class 2 site (IT-Lsn). The vineyard showed to act as a moderate carbon sink, with an average annual carbon uptake of 134 gC m-2. However, the inter-annual variability of NEE was considerably high and environmental conditions during vine growing season showed to have a strong impact. The summer of 2014 was characterized by plenty of rainfall and the annual carbon uptake was the highest (207 gC m-2). On the contrary, in 2015, several heat waves reached the area and the annual carbon uptake decreased to 69 gC m-2. Our results show that perennial crops, if properly managed, have the potential to act as carbon sink on the medium-long term.

SISC Sixth Annual Conference - Book of Abstract 252

Global Carbon, Climate Feedbacks and Emission Trends

RAL SLCFs: what are they? O

S. Fuzzi

1Istituto di Scienze dell'Atmosfera e del Clima - CNR

Methane, black carbon, tropospheric ozone and hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs) have been cumulatively referred to as short-lived climate forcers (SLCFs) since they are responsible for a substantial fraction of the near-term climate change with a particularly large impact on sensitive regions of the world (e.g. the Arctic). Recent scientific evidence has shown that large-scale SLFCs control measures could deliver sensible benefits to counteract the near-term warming of climate. However, this message has so far not yet gained sufficient attention by policy makers. It should also be noted that many of these compounds, affecting air quality, have detrimental effects on human health, agricultural yields and the environment in general, so that SLCF emission reduction policies provide the opportunity of simultaneously improve air quality and mitigate global warming (win-win policy options). For the first time, the upcoming IPCC Assessment Report (AR6) that is presently being prepared is taking into account the SLCF issue that will then effectively be brought to the attention of policy makers. In fact, so far policymakers do not have the tools available to include SLCFs into the Intended Nationally Determined Contributions (INDCs). AR6 will hopefully provide such sort of tools meant to take into account the contribution of SLCFs to climate warming. This presentation will introduce this issue and then focus specifically on one of the SLCFs: black carbon (BC), a particular type of aerosol produced by the incomplete combustion of fossil fuel and biomass burning. BC absorbs sunlight and then heats the atmosphere with substantial regional climate impacts. In addition, BC deposition on the white snow surface of glaciers favours their melting. BC is also the most important cause of the adverse health effects of poor air quality, leading to a series of diseases and to premature death. An update on BC concentration levels and trends at both global and national level will be provided and their implications on climate.

SISC Sixth Annual Conference - Book of Abstract 253

Global Carbon, Climate Feedbacks and Emission Trends

Soil organic carbon: European current stock and future RAL O projections using a spatial modelling approach

C. Sirca1,2, A. Caddeo1, S. Marras1,2, L. Sallustio3,4, D. Spano1,2

1AGRARIA, Department of Agriculture, University of Sassari. Viale Italia 39, 07100 Sassari, Italy; 2CMCC Foundation– Euro-Mediterranean Centre on Climate Change, IAFES Division. Via de Nicola 9, 07100 Sassari, Italy; 3Consiglio per la Ricerca in Agricoltura e l′Analisi dell'Economia Agraria (CREA), Research Centre for Forestry and Wood, Viale Santa Margherita 80, 52100 Arezzo, Italy; 4Centro di Ricerca per le Aree Interne e gli Appennini (ArIA), Università degli Studi del Molise, 86100, Campobasso, Italia

The soil organic carbon (SOC) is the largest carbon pool in the terrestrial biosphere, second only to the oceans, containing twice as much carbon as the atmosphere and three times that stored in global vegetation. Global SOC estimates indicates from 600-800 Pg stored in the top 0.2-0.3 m of thickness to 2300-3000 Pg in the top 2-3 m of soils. The EC Thematic Strategy for Soil Protection highlighted the loss of SOC as one of the most important soil threats while, on the other hand, being able to reduce the atmospheric GHGs concentration over the next century, its sequestration plays a key role as a strategy for climate change mitigation. Although ground and atmospheric carbon measurements suggest that the terrestrial biosphere is a net sink of CO2, it is still unclear and debated if this sink will persist over time despite climate change. In this context, forests and permanent crops (i.e., vineyards, olive groves, and orchards) have an important role. There are scientific evidence that forested areas are a net carbon sink and SOC stock of world’s forests soil currently amounts to 383±30 Pg, including temperate forests that contributes with 0.75±0.1 Pg C to the total carbon sink, mainly in light of their increasing surface and biomass density. Our study aims at assessing current SOC stocks (at 2005) in Italian forests and agroecosystems such as grasslands and permanent crop soils as well as their feasible long-term changes due to climate change (at 2095). Two climate scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) and three Global Circulation Models (GCMs) data were used to assess the climate change impacts on current SOC stocks. For this purpose a methodology based on the use of the model CENTURY 5 was implemented. Particular attention has been paid on these land cover classes due to i) the current lack of reliable data, ii) their large extension at national scale, which has also further increased during last decades and are

SISC Sixth Annual Conference - Book of Abstract 254

Global Carbon, Climate Feedbacks and Emission Trends

strictly linked to pedological features. SOC related to these land cover categories have an important role in the total carbon budget. The availability of accurate and reliable SOC stock estimates is then necessary for both international debates on the post Kyoto activities and for proficient mitigation policies even according to the rising need of a roadmap for decarbonization. We used the version 5 of CENTURY model developed at the Natural Resource Ecology Laboratory, Colorado State University, freely downloadable at http://www.nrel.colostate.edu/projects/irc. It includes a layered soil physical structure (the possibility to run with different soil layers having different depth), new erosion and deposition sub- models. To run the model, the following input data were used: climate (monthly values of precipitation, maximum and minimum temperature), soil texture (clay, silt and sand content), physical soil variables (pH, bulk density, SOC concentration, wilting point and field capacity) and land cover data. The study area covers the forestry and permanent tree crop surfaces in a Euro-Mediterranean area (lon -9°43’66’’ to 40°41’42’’; lat 30°79’35’’ to 54°94’47’’), totally 75,084,400 ha (Table 8). Land Cover information were obtained from Corine Land Cover 2006 (CLC2006). Climate data used in this work come from the EURO-CORDEX Project (http://www.euro-cordex.net/), that contains regional climate projections for Europe (12.5 km resolution). These regional simulations have been calculated from the downscaling of CMIP5 global climate projections. Future climate simulations of EURO-CORDEX are based on the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) for providing a range of possible evolutions in the atmospheric composition. Future scenarios of atmospheric CO2 variation are also associated to each climate scenario. On the basis of the available data we selected three different GCMs (CNRM-CM5, EC- EARTH, and MPI-ESM-LR), both for actual climate (1970-2005) and future projections (2006-2095). Considering all land cover classes, the mean SOC stock values ranged between 50.03±12.86 to 115.75±192.52 Mg ha-1. The minimum mean SOC stock value was simulated in transitional woodland- shrub surfaces, followed by permanent crops (vineyard, orchard, and olive grove), and natural grassland. The highest mean value was obtained in mixed forests, followed by coniferous forests. High mean SOC stock values correspond also to Mediterranean maquis and to broad-leaved forests (from 80.24 to 80.54 Mg ha-1). Generally, considering the future projections of total SOC stock for all GCMs and land cover classes, CENTURY 5 simulated greater decreases for the extreme scenario (RCP8.5) compared to the moderate (RCP4.5). The model simulated very low decreases of total SOC stock at the year 2095 for vineyards, olive groves, orchards, broad-leaved forests, natural grasslands, and transitional woodland-

SISC Sixth Annual Conference - Book of Abstract 255

Global Carbon, Climate Feedbacks and Emission Trends

shrub areas for all GCMs and climate scenario. Major decreases have been simulated by CENTURY 5 for coniferous and mixed forests, and in Mediterranean maquis surfaces.

SISC Sixth Annual Conference - Book of Abstract 256

Global Carbon, Climate Feedbacks and Emission Trends

RAL The new CMCC Seasonal Prediction System O

S. Gualdi1,2, A. Borrelli1, A. Sanna1, S. Tibaldi1, P. Athanasiadis1, S. Materia1, D. Padeletti1, A. Storto3, A. Navarra1,2

1Fondazione Centro Euro-Mediterraneo sui Cambiamenti Climatici; 2Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia; 3Centre for Marine Research and Experimentation

This work describes the new Seasonal Prediction System developed at the Euro-Mediterranean Centre on Climate Change (CMCC) to perform seasonal forecasts operationally. A more realistic representation of the Climate System components such as the ocean, the sea ice, the snow cover, the soil moisture and the stratosphere is crucial to obtain reliable forecasts at the sub-seasonal to seasonal time-scale. This new Seasonal Prediction System (CMCC–SPS3) currently operational at CMCC was indeed developed with the aim of achieving enhanced predictive skill in a variety of different aspects. In comparison to the previous system (SPS2), the new model has a completely different dynamical core, based on the new CMCC Earth System Model. The new system features a better horizontal resolution of both the atmospheric and oceanic components, better representation of the stratosphere, more realistic initialization procedures for atmosphere, land, sea and ice modules and a larger ensemble size (50 members). Such improvements have a positive impact on the climate and on the predictive skill of the new system. After a brief description of each system component, the initialization strategy is discussed along with the main characteristics of the forecast system from a technical point of view. An analysis of its climate and of the forecasting skill is presented for the 24-year re–forecast period 1993– 2016.

SISC Sixth Annual Conference - Book of Abstract 257

Authors

Alberico, I.; 100 Barbante, C.; 57 Alderighi, L.; 65 Barbante, C.; 129 Allasia, P.; 72 Barbante, C.; 131 Alruheili, A.; 115 Barbante, C.; 133 Amadio, M.; 172; 226 Barbante, C.; 136 Amendola, S.; 125 Barbante, C.; 137 Andreoli, A.; 75 Barbante, C.; 140 Andreoli, V.; 83; 92 Barbante, C.; 145 Anzalone, E.; 100 Barbaro, E.; 129; 137 Apadula, F.; 26 Barbato, G.; 170 Apadula, F.; 83 Barbetta, S.; 51 Ardizzone, F.; 72 Baroni, C.; 18; 41; 65; 90 Arduini, J.; 240 Barreto, B.; 189 Argiriadis, E.; 129; 131 Barreto, B.; 236 Arnone, E.; 59 Bassano, B.; 62 Artale, V.; 43 Bassi, M.; 70 Ashenfarb, M.; 115 Batté, L.; 178 Athanasiadis, P.; 255 Battistel, D.; 129; 131; 137 Bacciu, V.; 221 Beach, T.; 115 Bagli, S.; 163; 168 Becagli, S.; 149 Barbante, C.; 26 Benassi, M.; 159

SISC Sixth Annual Conference - Book of Abstract 258

Authors

Bencardino, M.; 26 Campagnolo, L.; 204 Bencardino, M.; 55 Capotondi, L.; 142 Bertotto, S.; 65 Cappello, G.; 236 Bertuzzi, P.; 178 Caricchi, C.; 141 Bevione, M.; 201 Carniel, S.; 119 Bhadwal, S.; 162 Caron, L.; 178 Biging, G.S.; 115 Carrara, S.; 201 Bindi, M.; 13 Carton, A.; 18; 65 Bionda, R.; 62 Carturan, L.; 18 Bonacorsi, L.; 173 Casada, M.; 138 Bonaldo, D.; 119 Casasanta, G.; 138 Bonanno, R.; 112 Cascella, A.; 68; 100 Bonasoni, P.; 26 Caserini, S.; 189 Bonasoni, P.; 20 Caserini, S.; 193 Bonasoni, P.; 30 Caserini, S.; 236 Bonasoni, P.; 57 Cassardo, C.; 75; 83; 92 Bonino, G.; 154 Castagna, J.; 55 Bonneval, B.; 180 Cavicchia, L.; 32 Bonomo, S.; 68; 100 Cerrato, C.; 62 Borga, M.; 51 Cerrato, R.; 41 Borrelli, A.; 255 Chiti, T.; 22; 46 Bosello, F.; 163 Chopra, S.; 162 Botarelli, L.; 187 Ciabatta, L.; 51 Bouchet, F.; 106 Cignetti, M.; 72 Brilli, L.; 13 Clementi, E.; 24 Brocca, L.; 51 Collins, J.; 115 Broccoli, D.; 163 Coppola, A.; 41; 77; 90 Brunetti, M.; 39; 41; 70; 90 Coppola, E.; 16 Brussolo, E.; 86; 102 Corradini, C.; 51 Bucchignani, E.; 119 Cortekar, J.; 166 Buongiorno Nardelli, B.; 43 Corti, S.; 178 Burgay, F.; 136 Coufal, M.; 115 Busetto, M.; 30; 57 Cozzi, G.; 57 Caburlotto, A.; 141 Crema, S.; 51 Caddeo, A.; 253 Cremonese, C.; 75 Caffau, M.; 141 Cremonese, E.; 37 Cagnazzi, B.; 70 Crespi, A.; 94 Caiazzo, L.; 149 Cristofanelli, P.; 26; 240 Cairns, W.; 57 Cristofanelli, P.; 20 Calfapietra, C.; 22; 37; 46 Cristofanelli, P.; 30 Callegaro, A.; 129 Cristofanelli, P.; 57 Calzolari, F.; 26 Critto, A.; 35; 218; 226 Calzolari, F.; 20 Crotti, I.; 133 Calzolari, F.; 30 Crowhurst, S.J.; 145 Camici, S.; 51 D’Amore, F.; 26

SISC Sixth Annual Conference - Book of Abstract 259

Authors

D’Amore, F.; 55 Fisher, H.; 136 D’Andrea, F.; 122 Florindo, F.; 68; 100 d'Agostino, R.; 161 Folini, D.; 248 D'Agostino, R.; 135 Foster, H.; 115 Dalal, A.; 115 Franceschetti, G.; 142 dalla Pozza, P.; 226 Fratianni, C.; 89 Dallo, F.; 26 Freppaz, M.; 34 Dallo, F.; 57 Fromang, S.; 122 Damm, A.; 166 Furlan, E.; 226 Dasgupta, S.; 163 Furlanetto, G.; 151 Dasgupta, S.; 207 Fuss, S.; 198 Davide, M.; 204 Fuzzi, S.; 252 Davide. M.; 223 Gabellani, S.; 75 De Amicis, M.; 81 Gabrieli, J.; 26 de Blasi, F.; 57 Gabrieli, J.; 57 de Boer, H.S.; 201 Galli, G.; 24 De Cian, E.; 207; 223 Gambaro, A.; 129; 137 De Donato, F.; 107 Gamboa Sojo, V.; 141 Del Guasta, M.; 138 Gavrichkova, O.; 22; 37; 46 Della Lunga, D.; 136 Gay García, C.; 210 Delmonte, B.; 138 Gennaro, S.; 18; 65 Delpiazzo, E.; 163 George-Marcelpoil, E.; 183 Derepasko, D.; 226 Gernaat, D.; 201 Di Carlo, P.; 26 Giaccio, B.; 131 di Leonardo, F.; 245 Giardino, A.; 65 Di Lorenzo, E.; 154 Giordan, D.; 72 Dias, C.; 231 Giordano, R.; 166 Disarra, A.; 26 Giorgetti, G.; 141 Dolci, G.; 189 Giorgi, F.; 14; 16 Dolia, D.; 75 Giostra, U.; 240 Donnici, S.; 60; 78 Gisolo, D.; 102 Doveri, M.; 86; 97; 102 Glavovic, B.; 219 Dreossi, G.; 138 Gohar, A.; 115 Elderfield, H.; 145 Grandi, A.; 89 Ellena, M.; 232 Graziosi, F.; 240 Erhardt, T.; 136 Greaves, M.; 145 Facchinetti, F.; 143 Greco, S.; 83 Faggi, A.; 142 Grigioni, P.; 138 Faggian, P.; 112 Grosso, M.; 189 Fantini, A.; 16 Grosso, M.; 236 Ferrarese, S.; 83; 92 Gualdi, S.; 159 Ferraris, S.; 102 Gualdi, S.; 32 Ferraro, L.; 68; 81; 100 Gualdi, S.; 178 Ferretti, P.; 145 Gualdi, S.; 255 Filippa, G.; 22; 37 Hamaker-Taylor, R.; 166

SISC Sixth Annual Conference - Book of Abstract 260

Authors

Hamouda, M.; 160 Lyubartsev, V.; 89 Harjanne, A.; 166 Macrì, P.; 141 He, Y; 115 Maggi, V.; 39; 90 Heltai, D.; 26 Maier, L; 115 Heltai, D.; 83 Maimone, F.; 125 Husum, K.; 141 Maione, M.; 240 Insinga, D.D.; 68; 100 Manara, V.; 70 Iovino, D.; 143; 154 Mannarino, V.; 55 Irace, A.; 86 Mannella, G.; 131 Jensen, C.M.; 136 Manunta, M.; 72 Ji, Y.; 232 Marchi, L.; 51 Jolly, E.; 122 Marcomini, A.; 35; 218; 226 Karroca, O.; 137 Margaritelli, G.; 142 Kehrwald, N.M.; 129; 137 Margaritelli, G.; 68 Kirchgeorg, T.; 129 Marin, G.; 196 Köberl, J.; 166 Marin, R.; 57 Kraxner, F.; 198 Marinoni, A.; 26 Kuma, P.; 158 Marinoni, A.; 20 Kumar, P.; 162 Marinoni, A.; 30 Kumar, R.; 162 Mariotti, L.; 16 Kumar, S.; 158 Mariotti, M.; 121 Laberg, J.S.; 141 Marletto, V.; 187 Lafitte, A.; 178 Marras, S.; 253 Lamich, K.; 166 Marullo, S.; 43 Landais, A.; 133 Marx, S.; 115 Landi, T.C.; 26 Masetti, G.; 86; 102 Lanfredi, C.; 236 Masina, S.; 143; 154 Lanza, A.; 26 Masson-Delmotte, V.; 14 Lanza, A.; 83 Materia, S.; 159 Larosa, F.; 232 Materia, S.; 255 Larosa, F.; 166; 176 Matsangouras, I.; 123 Leduc, S.; 198 Mattarese, R.; 166 Lelli, M.; 97 Mattioni, M.; 22; 37; 46 Lembo, V.; 248 Maugeri, M.; 39; 70; 90; 94 Leonelli, G.; 39; 90 Mazon, J.; 123 Lindbergh, S.; 115 Mazzoli, P.; 168 Lionello, P.; 135; 156; 161 McCave, I.N.; 145 Lionello, P.; 248 Menichini, M.; 86; 97 Lirer, F.; 142; 147 Mercogliano, P.; 107 Lirer, F.; 68; 100 Mercogliano, P.; 48 Lovato, T.; 24 Mercogliano, P.; 170 Lucchi, R.G.; 141 Meroni, A.N.; 110 Lurcock, C.; 68 Mesfun, S.; 198 Lurocock, P.C.; 100 Messori, G.; 193 Lutoff, C.; 183 Michelozzi, P.; 107

SISC Sixth Annual Conference - Book of Abstract 261

Authors

Michetti, M.; 226 Pellis, G.; 22 Miglietta, M.M.; 123 Pelosi, N.; 68 Mima, S.; 201 Penalba, O.C.; 243 Moangal, D.; 115 Perotti, L.; 65 Monechi, S.; 142 Perrels, A.; 166; 174 Monegato, G.; 127 Petrosino, P.; 68; 100 Montesarchio, M.; 48 Pham, H.V.; 218 Moramarco, T.; 51 Piana, V.; 213 Morello, E.; 193 Piazzi, G.; 75 Moretti, S.; 55 Pietzcker, R.C.; 201 Morigi; 141 Pilli-Sihvola, K.; 174 Morra di Cella, U.; 22; 37; 75 Pilli-Sihvola, K.; 166 Moscatelli, M.C.; 46 Pinardi, N.; 89 Musco, M.E.; 141 Pini, R.; 151 Mysiak, J.; 176 Pini, R.; 39; 46 Mysiak, J.; 166 Pirrone, N.; 26 Mysiak, J.; 226 Pirrone, N.; 55 Naccarato, A.; 55 Pisano, A.; 43 Naitza, L.; 26 Pitacco, A.; 250 Naitza, L.; 30 Pogliotti, P.; 75 Naitza, L.; 57 Pomaro, A.; 119 Napoli, A.; 94 Portoghese, I.; 166 Nardin, R.; 149 Poto, L.; 129 Navarra, A.; 255 Pretto, G.; 46 Nisi, B.; 97 Princivalle, F.; 141 Noferini, G.; 149 Provenzale, A.; 62; 75; 81; 86; 90; 102 Norton, P.; 115 Putero, D.; 20; 26; 30 Nurmi, V.; 174 Raco, B.; 86; 97 Nurmi, V.; 166 Radke, D.; 115 Osayuki Erhenhi, E.; 131 Radke, J.D.; 115 Padeletti, D.; 255 Raffa, M.; 48 Palazzi, E.; 59; 75; 81 Raffaele, F.; 16 Panenko, A.; 183 Ragone, F; 94 Pántano, V.C.; 243 Ragone, F.; 106; 121 Parodi A.; 121 Rau, R.; 115 Parodi, A.; 110 Ravazzi, C.; 151 Parrado, R.; 204 Ravazzi, C.; 39 Parth Sarthi, P.; 158 Rebesco, M.; 141 Pasini, A.; 123; 125 Reder, A.; 107 Pasquero, C.; 110; 121; 160 Reder, A.; 48 Pasquero, C.; 94 Reder, A.; 170 Patrizio, P.; 198 Regattieri, E.; 131 Pavan, V.; 187 Renault, L.; 110 Pawelek, P.; 166 Ricchi, A.; 119 Pelfini, M.; 90 Rivière, G.; 122

SISC Sixth Annual Conference - Book of Abstract 262

Authors

Rizzetto, F.; 104 Stemberger, S.; 232 Roberts, K.; 115 Stenni, B.; 133; 138 Roccato, F.; 26; 30; 57 Stevenson, P.; 245 Rocchia, E.; 62 Storto, A.; 255 Rodriguez-Camino, E.; 178 Straneo, F.; 143 Roe, E.; 115 Tavoni, M.; 201 Roman, M.; 129 Terzago, S.; 75; 92 Ross Morrey, D.; 236 Terzi, S.; 35 Rotunno, R.; 123 Tezza, L.; 250 Ruggieri, P.; 159 Tha, C.; 62 Sagnotti, L.; 141 Tibaldi, S.; 255 Saiz-Lopez, A.; 140 Tomei, F.; 187 Salis. M.; 221 Torresan, S.; 35; 218; 226 Sallustio, L.; 253 Traversi, R.; 149 Salvatore, M.C.; 18; 41; 65; 90 Trini Castelli, S.; 83 Sánchez Meneses, O.C.; 210 Trumpy, E.; 81 Sanna, A.; 255 Tziperman, E.; 160 Santoleri, R.; 43 Ulyashin,; 115 Scambiati, A.L.; 161 Vallé, F.; 39 Scarascia, L.; 156 Vallè, F.; 151 Scarchilli, C.; 138 Vallefuoco, M.; 68; 100 Scartazza, A.; 46 Vallelonga, P.; 140 Schmidt-Poolman, M.; 115 Vannitsem, S.; 178 Schneider, P.; 219 Vardè, M.; 26 Schneiderbauer, S.; 35 Vardè, M.; 57 Schnetzer, J.; 228 Vecchiato, M.; 129 Sclavo, M.; 119 Vendrame, N.; 250 Scoccimarro, E.; 32 Verdolini, E.; 173 Scortichini, M.; 107 Verdolini, E.; 207 Scoto, F.; 140 Villani, G.; 187 Segnana, M.; 129 Villani, V.; 107 Serandrei-Barbero, R.; 60; 78 Villani, V.; 170 Severi, M.; 149 Visscher, K.; 166 Sferlazzo, D.; 26 Viterbi, R.; 62 Sharma, M.C.; 162 Vito, D.; 215 Simoncelli, S.; 89 von Hardenberg, J.; 59; 75 Sirca, C.; 221; 253 von Storch, H.; 235 Solidoro, C.; 24 Vona, F.; 196 Spano, D.; 221; 253 Wagner, B.; 131 Sperotto, A.; 218 Wick, L.; 151 Spisni, A.; 187 Wild, M.; 248 Spolaor, A.; 129; 136; 140 Wouters, J.; 106 Sprovieri, F.; 26 Wray M.; 115 Sprovieri, F.; 55 Yi, S.; 115 Stegmaier, P.; 166 Yu, Y.; 115

SISC Sixth Annual Conference - Book of Abstract 263

Authors

Zampieri, M.; 32 Zebisch, M.; 35 Zanchetta, G.; 131 Zecchetto, S.; 60; 78 Zanella, V.; 137 Zennaro, P.; 129 Zangrando, R.; 129; 137 Zollo, A.L.; 170 Zanoner, T.; 18; 65 Zorzi, M.; 18

SISC Sixth Annual Conference - Book of Abstract 264

“Recent trends in climate sciences, adaptation and mitigation” is the title of the SISC Sixth Annual Conference, held on October 17th-19th, 2018 at the Scientific Campus of Ca’ Foscari University of Venice, Venezia-Mestre, Italy. The Conference aimed at connecting leading scientists, researchers, economists, practitioners, business leaders, and policy makers, whose activities are focused on different aspects of climate change, its impacts and related policies. The Conference has been an important interdisciplinary platform for the presentation of new advances and research results in the fields of science and management of climate change.

Società Italiana per le Scienze del Clima – SISC // Italian Society for Climate Sciences Edificio Porta dell'Innovazione (Piano 2) Via della Libertà 12 30175 Marghera-Venezia (VE), Italia [email protected] - www.sisclima.it