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Population & Demographics

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Population & Demographics APPENDIX Population & APPENDIX: POPULATION & Demographics DEMOGRAPHICS The most important resource available to a community is its people. While the City is often thought of as a single entity, it is a dynamic network of established and new neighborhoods, employment centers, commercial areas, and school districts that are fundamental affected by population and demographic changes. EXISTING CONDITIONS AND TRENDS Population Population change is the result of two factors: natural increase (the difference between births and deaths) and net migration (the change in people moving to/from the community). Most local population growth typically occurs from individuals and families moving to a community, usually for economic opportunity or quality of life reasons. The City’s population has undergone several phases throughout its history. The City experienced steady – and in some decades dramatic – growth through the 19th and early 20th centuries, reaching its peak population of 77,634 residents in 1950. The subsequent three decades were marked by a sharp decline in population. This decline is consistent with several national trends that destabilized many U.S. cities. These include a rapid post World War II housing boom and suburbanization of outlying, formerly rural communities as well as large-scale urban renewal projects that reconfigured and sometimes removed existing urban neighborhoods. In the past three decades, however, the City’s population has stabilized and appears to be entering a new phase of renewed growth. DEMOGRAPHIC HIGHLIGHTS • Portland is the largest city in Maine, with a 2010 population of 66,194 and a 2015 estimate by the US Census Bureau of 66,681 (nearly double that of Lewiston, the state’s second largest City). • Between 2000 and 2010, Portland’s population increased by 1,945 residents (a growth rate of 3%). • Portland’s current population is roughly 11,000 residents shy of the City’s record high of 77,634 residents in 1950. • As the region’s major employment center, Portland’s daytime population is estimated to exceed 96,000 people. • Millennials (20-29) and Gen Xers (30-39) comprise the largest share of Portland’s population, while Baby Boomers (50-69) are the fastest growing age group. • Portland’s population is diversifying. Since 2000, the number of foreign born residents has nearly doubled (from 4,895 in 2000 to a current estimate of 8,767). An estimated 11% of Portland residents are now foreign born. • Portland’s population is increasingly well educated. When compared to Cumberland County and the State, a higher proportion of Portland’s residents have obtained advanced degrees (45% of Portland residents over 25 years have bachelor or graduate degrees). PORTLAND'S PLAN | 88 APPENDIX: POPULATION & DEMOGRAPHICS City Snapshot (2000-2010) 2000 2010 % Change Total Population 64,249 66,194 3% Female Population 33,496 33,888 1% Male Population 30,753 32,306 5% Median Age 35.7 36.7 3% Total Housing Units 31,862 33,836 6% Owner-occupied 12,617 13,124 4% Renter occupied 17,097 17,601 3% Vacant 2,148 3,111 45% Total Households 29,714 30,725 3% Family Households 13,547 13,324 -2% Non-Family Households 16,167 17,401 8% Average Household Size 2.08 2.07 0% Average Family Size 2.89 2.88 0% Median Household Income $35,650 $45,865 2%* *Adjusted for Inflation Historic Population Growth (1800-2014) 77,634 80,000 66,317 70,000 60,000 50,000 40,000 Total Population Total 30,000 20,000 10,000 – 1800 1820 1840 1860 1880 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 2020 *2010-2014 ACS 5-year estimate PORTLAND'S PLAN | 89 APPENDIX: POPULATION & DEMOGRAPHICS Regional Population Trends Much of the region’s growth since 1950 has occurred in the suburban and rural communities of Cumberland County. Between 2000 and 2010, for example, Cumberland County grew by a total of 16,062 residents. Of this growth, Portland captured 12%, or 1,945 new residents. Percent Share of Cumberland County Growth (2000-2010) 25% – All Other Communities 12% – Portland 10% – South Portland 08% – Westbrook 16,062 NEW RESIDENT S 12% – Scarborough 13% – Windham 14% – Gorham 05% – Falmouth While growth in the City is an encouraging trend, Portland’s recent growth has generally been slow. In the period from 2000-2010, outlying neighbors, several of which are three to four times smaller, captured a disproportionately larger share of the County’s growth. In fact, the three fastest growing communities in Maine, in terms of net population growth, were Windham, Gorham, and Scarborough. Each community added roughly 2,000 residents from 2000 to 2010. When compared to County and State trends, Portland's population growth generally lags behind. Portland's 0% and 3% growth rates over the past two decades trailed behind both the County's (9% and 6%) and State's (4% and 5%) for the same time periods. Population Growth Comparison: Portland, Neighboring Communities, Cumberland County, and Maine (1980-2014) % Increase % Increase 1980 1990 2000 2010 2014* (1990-2000) (2000-2010) Portland 61,572 64,358 64,249 66,194 66,317 0% 3% South Portland 22,712 23,163 23,376 25,002 25,154 1% 7% Westbrook 14,976 16,121 16,142 17,494 17,662 0% 8% Scarborough 11,347 12,518 16,970 18,919 19,209 36% 11% Windham 11,282 13,020 14,904 17,001 17,300 14% 14% Gorham 10,101 11,856 14,141 16,381 16,677 19% 16% Cumberland County 215,789 243,135 265,612 281,674 284,351 9% 6% Maine 1,119,971 1,222,000 1,266,848 1,328,361 1,328,535 4% 5% 2010-2014 ACS 5-year estimate PORTLAND'S PLAN | 90 APPENDIX: POPULATION & DEMOGRAPHICS In the 1920s, Portland’s population comprised more than half (56%) of Cumberland County’s population, and 9% of Maine’s population. Today, these figures are considerably smaller. As of the 2014 ACS 5-Year Estimate, Portland’s population represented 23% of the County’s population, and 5% of the State’s population. City of Portland’s Population as a Percent of County/State Population (1800-2000) 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% - 1800 1850 1900 1950 2000 Portland as a Percent of County Population Portland as a Percent of State Population Despite the City’s modest growth over the past few decades, a number of signs point to a possible resurgence in population now and in the years to come. Many of the urban areas in the greater Portland region have stopped losing population and are now beginning to grow again; in addition to Portland, the cities of Westbrook, South Portland, Biddeford, and Saco all benefited from renewed growth during the 2000s, despite tepid growth during the 1990s. It seems possible the region’s urban areas are on the cusp of an emerging trend back towards city life. This trend, which has been observed in urban areas throughout the country, is widely attributed to the convergence of two distinct generations: the “Millennials” and the “Baby Boomers.” It is thought the Millennials are moving to cities for job opportunities, increased social interaction, and the convenience of not having to own an automobile, while Baby Boomers are gravitating towards cities for many of the same reasons, as well as the desire to downsize housing or retire in a more walkable neighborhood closer to amenities. PORTLAND'S PLAN | 91 APPENDIX: POPULATION & DEMOGRAPHICS Population Density In the City, density rates range from 400+ people per acre in a few select locations (i.e., assisted living facility, homeless shelter, etc.) to 0-5 people per acre in outlying census blocks. As might be expected, Portland’s peninsula, overall, has the highest rates of people per acre. Additionally, many of the census blocks in neighborhoods adjacent to major corridors (Route 25, Route 302, and Route 26/100) also have higher population densities. Portland’s Population Density (2010) PORTLAND'S PLAN | 92 APPENDIX: POPULATION & DEMOGRAPHICS Population Change Census tracts are larger than census blocks and are the approximate size of neighborhoods. Since census tract boundaries in Portland changed only slightly from 2000 to 2010, it is possible to see which neighborhood areas gained or lost populations over the decade. The census tracts that experienced the most growth between 2000 and 2010 were: • Census tracts 21.01 & 22 (North Deering), which gained 200 and 522 people respectively; • Census tract 21.02 (Riverside), which gained 627 people; • Census tract 20.02 (Stroudwater/Libbytown), which gained 516 people; • Census tract 6 (Parkside), which gained 540 people. The census tracts that experienced the sharpest declines in population were: • Census tract 3 (Downtown), which lost 500 people; and • Census Tract 11 (West End), which lost 231 people. Portland’s Population Change (2000-2010*) *This map shows census tracts only and is not a depiction of definitive neighborhood boundaries. PORTLAND'S PLAN | 93 APPENDIX: POPULATION & DEMOGRAPHICS On the peninsula, the majority of new growth occurred in the vicinity of the Parkside, East Bayside, and India Street neighborhoods, while the eastern side of the peninsula, including downtown, the West End, and a portion of the East End, generally lost population. Off the peninsula, most population growth occurred in the outlying census tracts, in the vicinity of North Deering, Riverside, and Stroudwater/Libbytown. The census tracts that lost population, including Deering Center, Rosemont, and Back Cove, were more centrally located. Losses were relatively modest. Daytime & Seasonal Population Change As the State’s largest city and urban center for Cumberland County, Portland is home to a large number of employers and jobs. The daily influx of workers means the City’s daytime population is often substantially higher than its nighttime population, comprised mainly of residents.
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