The Urban East Midlands in 2008 A report by emda 2008 This work, with the exception of logos, photographs and images and any other content marked with a separate copyright notice, is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 2.0 UK: England & Wales License The use of logos in the work is licensed for use only on non-derivative copies. Under this licence you are free to copy this work and to make derivative works as long as you give the original author credit. The copyright is owned by Nottingham Trent University. This document forms part of the emda Knowledge Bank 69 a_cover_a4_aw.qxd:a_cover_a4.qxd 12/3/08 10:56 Page 1 The Urban East Midlands in 2008 b_page_contents_aw.qxd:b_page_contents 12/3/08 10:11 Page 3 emda: The Urban East Midlands in 2008 Contents Executive summary 5 6. Deprivation and socio-economic inclusion 58 6.1 Introduction 58 The Urban East Midlands in 2008 9 6.2 Measuring deprivation 58 6.3 Income 60 6.4 Benefits 62 6.5 Crime 65 1. Introduction 9 6.6 Community life 67 1.1 Context 9 1.2 Purpose of the Evidence Base 9 7. Infrastructure and physical development 71 7.1 Land and development 71 2. Defining urban areas 10 7.1.1 Floorspace 71 7.1.2 Rentals 72 2.1 Administrative boundaries 7.1.3 Employment land 73 (Unitary Authorities and Local Authority Districts) 10 7.2 Housing 75 2.2 Primary Urban Areas (PUAs) 13 7.2.1 Housing tenure 75 7.2.2 Housing affordability 76 3. Changing demography 16 7.2.3 Homelessness 80 7.3 Transport 81 3.1 Introduction 16 3.2 Population growth 16 8. Environment and quality of life 85 3.3 Migration 17 3.4 Age structure 21 8.1 Climate change 85 3.5 Ethnicity 25 8.2 Greenhouse gas emissions 86 3.6 Future population growth 26 8.3 Waste 87 8.4 Environment and historic assets 88 4. The urban economy 28 4.1 Introduction 28 4.2 Gross Value Added 29 4.2.1 Commuting flows 30 4.3 Business stock 32 4.4 Business start-ups 35 4.5 GVA forecasts 39 5. Labour market 42 5.1 Introduction 42 5.2 Employment and unemployment 42 5.3 Self-employment 45 5.4 Qualifications 46 5.5 Earnings 51 5.6 Forecast employment growth 54 3 b_page_contents_aw.qxd:b_page_contents 12/3/08 10:11 Page 4 emda: The Urban East Midlands in 2008 4 section_dividers_aw:15057_section_dividers 12/3/08 10:13 Page 1 Executive summary section_dividers_aw:15057_section_dividers 12/3/08 10:13 Page 2 c_executive_summary_aw.qxd:c_executive_summary 12/3/08 10:12 Page 5 emda: The Urban East Midlands in 2008 Executive summary Introduction Population projections are for significantly slower population growth in urban areas than rural areas. While The aim of this evidence base is to highlight key the population of urban areas is forecast to increase by challenges and build a common understanding of the only around 6% between 2004 and 2029, population performance of the urban East Midlands on a range of growth in most rural areas is forecast to be more than demographic, economic, labour market, physical and 25%. The urban districts with the greatest forecast environmental indicators.1 population growth over this period are Ashfield (13.6%) and Oadby and Wigston (12.5%). The slowest population Changing demography growth is forecast in Corby (2.6%) and Mansfield (2.8%). The population of the East Midlands is 4.3 million people, The urban economy of which 45% (or 1.9 million) live in districts classified as Large Urban or Other Urban. The population of the There are significant differences within the region in levels region’s urban areas tends to be younger than in more of output and Gross Value Added (GVA) per head, which rural areas. The proportion of school age population does tends to be higher in urban areas. However, these figures not differ significantly between the urban and rural areas are influenced by commuting patterns. The areas with the but the proportion of working age population is slightly highest GVA per head in the East Midlands are higher in urban areas than in rural. People of pensionable Nottingham, Derby and Leicester. In Nottingham, GVA age account for a smaller share of the population in urban per head was 42% higher than in the UK in 2004, and areas than in rural. A much larger proportion of the urban 49% higher than in the East Midlands. Forecasts for the population are from ethnic minorities, compared to rural next decade (2006-2016) suggest the highest GVA parts of the region. More than 19% of the population of growth will be in Blaby (38.2%). Other Urban centres in Large Urban districts do not belong to the White British Northamptonshire are also forecast to experience growth ethnic group, while in Other Urban districts the ethnic in GVA above the regional average of 30.5%. This reflects minority population represents 8.6% of the total. Northamptonshire’s location within the Milton Keynes Leicester is by far the most ethnically diverse city in the South Midlands Growth Zone. East Midlands. The stock of VAT-registered businesses in urban areas is The East Midlands’ urban areas have been experiencing smaller than that in rural areas. There were 44,770 significant demographic change in recent years. Since businesses in urban districts at the start of 2005, and 1995 population growth in urban areas has been 80,565 in rural districts. In recent years, business start-up relatively slow (0.7% in Large Urban districts and 2% in rates in urban areas of the East Midlands have been Other Urban districts). These rates are much lower than consistently lower than in rural areas. Leicester City had in rural areas of the region. The principal driver of recent the highest start-up rate of any urban district in 2005, at population change in the East Midlands has been 40 per 10,000 adults, which is well above the East migration. Migration into urban areas is characterised by Midlands average of 34 per 10,000. Nottingham and its an influx of predominantly young international migrants surrounding districts have the lowest business start-up and by out-migration of managerial and professional rates at just 25 per 10,000 adults. Perhaps surprisingly, people and their families to suburban or rural areas. the density of businesses is also lower in urban areas. 1 Urban areas can be defined in a number of ways. See section 2 for a summary of definitions used in this report. 5 c_executive_summary_aw.qxd:c_executive_summary 12/3/08 10:12 Page 6 emda: The Urban East Midlands in 2008 There is an average of 288 businesses per 10,000 people The occupational structure of residents in urban areas is of working age in urban districts and 418 per 10,000 significantly different compared to rural areas. The people in rural districts. These differences reflect the fact proportion of residents employed as Managers and that businesses tend to be larger in urban areas. Senior Officials is generally lower in urban areas than in rural districts, which reflects commuting patterns. People The industrial composition of businesses shows a employed in these higher level occupations often choose significant difference between the urban and rural to live in rural areas, but commute to work in urban areas. districts. Manufacturing businesses make up a larger The average annual earnings of those who live in the share of the business stock in urban than in rural areas, most rural parts of the region are around £1500 higher accounting for between 11% and 15% of all businesses than those who work there. In contrast, employment in in urban areas, but less than 10% in rural districts. Urban low value added and lower paid elementary occupations areas also have a larger share of businesses in wholesale, in the service sector tend to be concentrated in urban retail and repair. areas. Working arrangements are also different in urban and rural areas of the region. Due to the fact that home The East Midlands has faced significant structural working tends to be more prevalent in rural areas, rates changes during the last decade, which has had an of self-employment tend to be higher in rural districts. impact on the composition of the business population. Between 1994 and 2005 the most significant increase in The skills profile of the workforce is also different in the the number of businesses has been in the services urban areas compared to the rural parts of the East sector, which has grown by more than 17% in urban Midlands. A smaller proportion of the economically active districts, and more than 20% in the ‘mixed’ Significant adult population in urban areas has higher level Rural districts. Growth has been most marked in qualifications and larger proportions have no business services, with the number of businesses in qualifications compared to rural districts. An average of financial intermediation more than doubling in some 12.5% of the economically active adult population in urban areas, and an increase of up to 88% in the number Large Urban districts have no qualifications, compared to of businesses dealing in real estate, renting and business 8.2% in the most rural areas within the region, and 10.2% activities. At the same time the number of businesses in in the East Midlands as a whole. The proportion of the wholesale, retail and repairs and manufacturing has adult population qualified to at least NVQ Level 4 significantly declined in urban areas, particularly in Large (equivalent to a first degree) is 27.4% for Large Urban Urban districts.