Legacy Leesburg Market Assessment

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY LEESBURG TOWN PLAN MARKET ASSESSMENT INTRODUCTION This Market Assessment was conducted to inform Leesburg’s update of its Town Plan. It quantifies demand for housing, retail, office, light industrial and hotel from 2020 to 2040. This Market Assessment has relied on forecasts prepared by the Metropolitan Washington Council of Governments (Round 9.1) and the Market Analysis for Envision Loudoun, Loudoun County’s new comprehensive plan. SUMMARY OF CONCLUSIONS Table 1 Land Use Forecasts Leesburg Planning Area 2020 to 2040 MWCOG Round 9.1 Based Market-Based Residential Dwelling Units Single Family Detached 1,340 2,640 Single Family Attached 2,130 4,620 Multi-Family 1,690 2,690 Total 5,160 9,950 Sq Ft Employment Sq Ft Employment Office /1 957,300 4,034 1,022,400 4,368 Light Industrial Flex and Data Center /2 1,178,900 1,725 2,087,800 2,438 Hotel 486 Rooms 292 440 Rooms 264 Retail /3 768,900 2,043 1,035,000 2,809 1. The Market-Based forecast was modified upwards due to the Microsoft land purchase at Compass Creek. 2. The Market-Based forecast assumes that the Leesburg Planning Area captures 85% of Town and Rural Policy Area's light industrial and data center potential. 3. The Market-Based scenario was modified to take into consideration market leakage and same store productivity growth. Source: W-ZHA Leesburg is in a very strong market where, for many land uses, demand is outpacing supply. Leesburg’s planning challenge is not lack of market, but, instead, harnessing growth in a manner that enhances resident quality of life and creates a strong and sustainable local economy. - 2 - REGIONAL INFLUENCES ON LOUDOUN COUNTY AND LEESBURG Washington Metropolitan Area Economy and Growth The Washington Metro Area is a dynamic region with one of the strongest economies in the nation. The Metropolitan Area ranks 5th among all United States’ Metros in terms of Gross Metropolitan Product. While the Federal government still plays an important role in the region’s growth, the Washington Metro economy continues to diversify. CBRE Research ranks Washington, DC market area #3 in terms of tech talent behind the San Francisco Bay Area and New York markets.1 The Dulles Technology Corridor The Dulles Technology Corridor is an area along and between the Dulles Toll Road (VA SR 267) and Route 7 (VA SR 7). There is a concentration of defense, telecom and technology firms here as well as Dulles International Airport. Dubbed by Atlantic magazine the “Silicon Valley of the East”, the Dulles Technology Corridor is a major economic development asset. Dulles Corridor Metrorail – Silver Line Extension Phase II The Washington Metro System’s Silver Line Extension Phase II extends Metro from Reston, VA in Fairfax County to Loudoun County. Scheduled to be completed in 2020, the Extension will include two stations in Loudoun County. Much of Loudoun County’s future growth and development is projected to occur in and around these Metro stations in the eastern part of the county. Washington Region’s Exurban Growth Trends Figure 1 Change in Occupied Housing Units Urban, Suburban and Exurban Washington Region 2000 - 2017 250,000 200,000 150,000 100,000 Prince New Housing Units Units Housing New William 50,000 Loudoun 0 Urban Suburban Exurban Source: The George Washington University Center for Washington Area Studies, “State of the Capital Region, 2019”, American Community Survey; W-ZHA 1 CBRE Research, “2018 Scoring Tech Talent”. - 3 - Figure 1 illustrates how the housing market has accommodated regional growth. Since 2000, the Exurban counties have added more housing units than the Urban and Suburban counties combined, with Loudoun County adding more than any other single jurisdiction. Rapid growth has transformed what was once Loudoun County’s rural countryside to new residential subdivisions. Quality of Life and Sustainability A 2018 National Citizens Survey revealed that 87 percent of Loudoun County residents rated the County’s quality of life as excellent or good.2 As might be expected with the level of growth experienced in Loudoun County, affordability and mobility are key challenges facing Loudoun County and the Leesburg community. DEMOGRAPHIC TRENDS AND PROJECTIONS Fast Growth Loudoun County’s and Leesburg’s population growth since 2000 has outpaced the Washington Metropolitan Area. Loudoun County’s population more than doubled over the last 17 years. With almost 400,000 people in Loudoun County, it is the 2nd largest Exurban County within the Capital Region. Families Have Driven Household Growth in Leesburg Family households have driven growth in Loudoun County and Leesburg. Family households account for over three-quarters of Loudoun County and Leesburg households. Over 40 percent of households in both Loudoun County and Leesburg have children under the age of 18. Both Loudoun and Leesburg’s average household size exceeds the United State and Metro average. Even with a high average household size, half of the households in Leesburg are 1- and 2-person households. One Quarter of Leesburg’s Population is Either Hispanic or Asian. Over 60% of Leesburg’s residents are white and not Hispanic. Approximately 17% of Leesburg’s population is Hispanic and almost 8% is Asian. Whites that are not Hispanic accounted for two-thirds of the population growth since 2010. Leesburg experienced growth in the Hispanic and Asian populations as well. Leesburg’s Households Are Generally Younger Than National and Metropolitan Averages As compared to the Nation and the Metro area, Leesburg has a higher concentration of its households in the “full nest” stage of life – 35 to 54 years old. As of 2017, Leesburg had a lower share of its households headed by persons 65 and older as compared to the Nation, the Metro, and Loudoun County. Household age trends indicate that, while young, Leesburg’s household composition has been aging. 2 National Research Center, Inc., “The National Citizens Survey: Loudoun County, Community Livability Report, 2018”. - 4 - The Leesburg Population Is Well-Educated and High Income Over half (52%) of Leesburg’s population over 25 years old have a college or professional degree. This number is above the Washington Region where 50% have a bachelor’s degree or above. Leesburg’s median household income ($105,844) is lower than the Loudoun County average ($129,588) and higher than the Washington Metropolitan Area average ($97,149). With relatively large families, Leesburg’s per capita income is below the Metro and county averages. Household and Employment Forecasts Indicate Continued Growth Over the Next 20 Years Figure 2 Loudoun County Planning Areas Source: Loudoun County The Metropolitan Washington Council of Governments (MWCOG) works with local jurisdictions to forecast population, households and employment given market dynamics and existing land use policies. These forecasts are constrained by current land use policy. MWCOG’s latest round of forecasts, Round 9.1, are available for Loudoun County and the Leesburg Planning Area. The Leesburg Planning Area boundaries are depicted in Figure 2. Population, household and employment forecasts were also developed as part of the County’s Envision Loudoun Master Planning process. Unlike MWCOG’s forecasts, these forecasts were not constrained by land use policy. As such, for purposes of this report these forecasts are called the “Market-Based” forecast. - 5 - Figure 3 Loudoun County Policy Areas Source: Loudoun County The Market-Based forecast projects housing unit growth for the Suburban, Urban and Transition Policy Areas of Loudoun County and, by process of elimination, the Rural and Town policy areas (see Figure 12). The Market-Based forecast does not project households, housing units or employment growth for specific towns or Town Policy Areas. The housing unit forecasts are indicative of projected household growth. Table 2 New Housing Unit Forecast - Round 9.1 and Market-Based - Medium Scenario Loudoun County, Suburban/Urban/Transition Districts Policy Areas, and Rural/Town Policy Areas 2020, 2030, 2040 Change 2020-2030 2030-2040 2020-2040 # % # % # % MWCOG Round 9.1 Forecast Loudoun County 21,042 9,494 30,536 Transition/Suburb/Urban Districts 14,512 69.0% 5,681 59.8% 20,193 66.1% Rural/Towns 6,530 31.0% 3,813 40.2% 10,343 33.9% Market-Based Forecast Loudoun County 31,830 28,290 60,120 Transition/Suburban/Metro Districts 21,980 69.1% 17,010 60.1% 38,990 64.9% Rural/Towns 9,850 30.9% 11,280 39.9% 21,130 35.1% Source: MWCOG Round 9.1; Envision Loudoun; W-ZHA The table above compares the MWCOG Round 9.1 housing unit forecasts to Market-Based forecast’s medium growth scenario. The forecasts are similar in how they allocate growth between the Suburban/Urban/Transition Policy Areas and the Rural/Town Policy Areas of the County. The Market- - 6 - Based forecast foresees considerable growth (over 20,000 housing units) in the Rural and Town Policy Areas. Leesburg is the likely location for much of this growth. Loudoun County has Become a Professional Employment Center over the Last 18 Years. Figure 4 Jobs by Industry Sector Loudoun County 2000 and 2018 18.0% 16.0% 14.0% 12.0% 10.0% 8.0% 6.0% 4.0% Share of Jobs of Total Share 2.0% 0.0% Mining Utilities Real Estate Information Retail Trade Government Construction Other Services Manufacturing Mgmt of Comp Admin & Waste… Prof, Sci, & Tech… & Sci, Prof, Wholesale Trade Accomod & Food… For, Fish, Rel. Act. Rel. Fish, For, Arts, Entert, & Rec Education Services Finance & Insurance Transport & Warehsg Health & Soc. Services 2000 2018 Source: Moody’s Analytics; W-ZHA With approximately 170,900 jobs, Loudoun County has shifted from having an information-, transportation and warehousing-, and government-driven economy in 2000 to a professional, scientific and technical service- and government-driven economy in 2018.

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