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The Automotive Lidar Market April 2018 Market and Technology Overview Market Map LIDAR for AUTOMOTIVE: POTENTIAL OEM

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The Automotive Lidar Market April 2018 Market and Technology Overview Market Map LIDAR for AUTOMOTIVE: POTENTIAL OEM The Automotive LiDAR Market April 2018 Market and Technology Overview Market Map LIDAR FOR AUTOMOTIVE: POTENTIAL OEM Russia Europe Japan Europe Korea USA USA China China Robotic cars ADAS (Advanced Driver Assistance Systems) 4 AUTOMOTIVE LiDAR MANUFACTURERS Europe China Canada Japan Israel USA Australia 5 POTENTIAL AUTOMOTIVE LIDAR MANUFACTURERS (STEALTH MODE) Europe Korea Japan USA 6 ILLUMINATION SOURCE PLAYERS Europe Japan USA Korea EEL: Edge Emitting Laser VCSEL: Vertical Cavity Surface-Emitting Laser 7 PHOTODETECTOR PLAYERS Europe Japan USA Photodiodes and Avalanche Photodiodes Single Photon Avalanche Photodiodes and Silicon Photomultipliers 8 Technology Overview LiDAR PRINCIPLE AND COMPONENTS The basic working principle of the LiDAR is very simple. A light source illuminates a scene. The light scattered by the objects of the scene is detected by a photodetector. Measuring the time it takes for the light to travel to the object and back from it, allows to know its distance. Scene under exposure Light scanner Laser beam Optics or Light source Light diffuser Computing unit 3D point cloud Optics Photodetector Signal processor distance = time x velocity of light LiDAR system 10 AUTOMOTIVE LiDAR ECOSYSTEM Photodetectors LiDAR systems Laser sources PD/APD SPAD/SiPM Active players EEL VCSEL R&D players IC Optical elements FPGA ADC MEMS Optical filters Amplifier Optical systems ADC: Analog Digital Converter IC: Integrated Circuit SPAD: Single-Photon Avalanche Diode APD: Avalanche Photodiode MEMS: Micro-Electro-Mechanical System VCSEL: Vertical Cavity Surface-Emitting Laser EEL: Edge-Emitting Laser PD: Photodiode FPGA: Field-Programmable Gate Array SiPM: Silicon Photomultiplier 11 TAXONOMY OF LiDAR TECHNIQUES LiDAR 1D 2D/3D (scanning of light source) Scanning Non scanning Non Structured Multi Mechanical Flash LiDAR mechanical light cameras Optical phased Stereo vision Non-MEMS MEMS array Macro- mechanical Electro-optical Not under development for scanning automotive applications. Risley prims Liquid crystal Solid-state LiDAR Micro-motion Commercially available 12 AUTOMOTIVE LiDAR PLAYERS Multi-channels Other MEMS LiDAR Flash LiDAR Optical-phased Macro-mechanical mechanical array LiDAR scanning scanning 1540 nm 1350 nm Pulsed LiDAR 1550 nm 1550 nm Phase shift CW LiDAR FMCW 10 µm 1550 nm Except when noted, wavelength is between 830 nm and 940 nm. CW: Continuous Wave FMCW: Frequency Modulated Continuous Wave 13 AUTOMOTIVE LiDAR COMPARISON CHART Current offering ADAS vehicles Robotic vehicles Model ScaLa 1 HDL-64 HDL-32 VLP-16 RS-LiDAR-32 OS-1 R-Fans-32 Lux (XX) Channels 4 64 32 16 32 64 32 4 - 8 Range (m) 100 - 200 100 - 120 80 - 100 100 200 100 200 120 – 200 Data rate NA 1,300,000 700,000 300,000 640,000 1,310,720 640,000 NA (pts/sec) 5Hz: 0.08° 5Hz: 0.08° 5Hz: 0.1° 12.5/25Hz Horizontal 5 Hz: 0.09° 0.25° 10Hz: 0.17° 10Hz: 0.17° 10Hz: 0.2° 0.18° 0.05° 0.125° to 20 Hz: 0.36° resolution 20Hz: 0.36° 20Hz: 0.35° 20Hz: 0.4° 0.25° Power (W) 7 60 12 8 13.5 NA 12 ~7-10 Operating -10° to -10° to -10° to -10° to -40° to NA NA NA temperature 50° C 60° C 60° C 60° C 85°C $10,000 - Cost ($) $600 $75,000 $30,000 $8,000 $16,800 $12,000 NA $20,000 14 MECHANICAL AUTOMOTIVE LiDAR Mechanical LiDAR for ADAS Mechanical LiDAR for Robotic cars Risley prisms LiDAR 1540 nm Rotating mirror Laser diode Capitalizing on its industrial LiDAR, Neptec develops new automotive LiDAR. Scanning angle 145 Robotic cars are equipped with multi- Micro-motion Other mechanical In 2017, Audi released the A8 with Level 3 channels LiDAR in which multiple lasers LiDAR LiDAR autonomy thanks to the Scala LiDAR from and photodetectors are rotating 360. Valeo. The A8 is capable of traffic jam These LiDAR are bulky and cannot blend assist. It is the only LiDAR available for in consumer cars. 1550 nm consumer cars. Active players: In collaboration with: Active players: ADAS: Advanced Driver Assistance Systems 15 SOLID STATE LIDAR Solid-state LiDAR is a broad name to describe LiDAR which MEMS LiDAR OPA LiDAR (Optical Phased Array) are not using conventional motors but semiconductor solutions to scan or steer light through a scene. Macro-mechanical scanning Current technology Courtesy of Preciseley Microtechnology Corp. Courtesy of Quanergy MEMS LiDAR 2018 2019 In a MEMS LiDAR, a micro-scanner integrated In a OPA LiDAR, steering of the illumination is with actuators on silicon steers the laser beam obtained by controlling the phase of an array of during illumination. lasers. OPA LiDAR 2022 2023 • Batch production Cheaper. • No moving parts More robust. • Automotive robustness is under test. • Still difficult to design due to novelty. MEMS LiDAR players OPA LiDAR players USA Europe Israel China Canada USA China MEMS: Micro-Electro Mechanical Systems OPA: Optical Phased Array 16 FLASH LIDAR In Flash LiDAR, a laser beam is not scanned over the scene, but Pros and cons of Flash LiDAR this last is illuminated at once. As a result, no moving part is needed. On the other hand, an array of photodetector is needed to form an image. Pros Cons • No moving parts. • Photodetector array needed. • Potentially better spatial • More photons are needed. resolution. Photodetector arrays PIN photodiodes APD Courtesy of Advanced Scientific Concepts, Inc. CCD or CMOS image sensor with Higher gain than PIN time of flight photodiodes. capability. Flash LiDAR players Europe Israel SPAD SiPM USA Single photon High gain and high 10 µm detection but limited sensitivity. to digital one bit CMOS technology. operation. APD: Avalanche Photodiode SiPM: Silicon Photomultiplier PD: Photodiode SPAD: Single-Photon Avalanche Diode 17 TAM Forecast TAM: Total Addressable Market CONVERGENCES LEADING TO THE ROBOTICS REVOLUTION Smartphone Yole Développement © March 2016 • Computing & Why now? sensor platform • Huge annual volume (>1Bu) • Smartphones helped • Quick innovation cycle develop advanced (<1Y) microelectronic technologies at low cost • The internet provides a communication/cloud computing infrastructure coupled with high demand for connected devices • Autonomous vehicle R&D allows for high-priced technology testbeds fueled by car brands’ search for differentiation Connectivity 19 AUTONOMOUS VEHICLES: THE DISRUPTION CASE Two distinctive paths for autonomous vehicles Technology x Market Penetration Disruption ? Improvement Autonomous of cars as we vehicles know Automated driving Industrialization Electric car phase matures Robotic cars Below expectation “cars” fulfilling needs in a new plane of consumption Yole Développement Electronics New use cases © August 2015 Invades cars 1880 80 years 1960 40 years 2000 20 years 2020 10 years 2030 5 years 2035 20 MARKET PENETRATION OF ADAS VEHICLES Robotic and Light vehicle sales breakdown forecast by level of autonomy ADAS Level 0 ADAS Level 1 ADAS Level 2 ADAS Level 3 ADAS Level 4 ADAS Level 5 Robotic cars 160 160 140 Now 140 120 5 120 ( sales vehicles Robotic 100 4 100 80 3 80 60 2 60 40 40 1 Munits ADAS vehicles sales (Munits) sales vehicles ADAS 20 20 ) 0 0 0 By 2045, more than 70% of all vehicles sold will integrate autonomous capabilities! 21 ROBOTIC CARS versus ADAS CARS Average Lifetime Average Time Usage (year) 100% Battery 10 refill 24/7 robotic cars ADAS car lifetime 90% ~ 8 years 5 50% Robotic car lifetime ~ 4 years Robotic car usage Daytime robotic cars ADAS car usage 5% 2 Yole Développement ~ 2 years © February 2018 2015 2035 2055 22 AUTOMOTIVE MARKET TREND Emergence of the robotic vehicle market Log Number of vehicles 100M Share of Level 4 Car as we know could plateau in the 30’s 75M Unification of vision technologies? Robotic car 50M disruption ? Robotic car Technology Production: 25M changes Reaching 5M units cumulated Production: 500k unit/y Production: 2% Critical mass is reached 150k unit/y 50k unit/y 2017 2022 2027 2032 2037 2042 2047 23 ROBOTIC VEHICLE MARKET TREND Emergence of the robotic vehicle market Log Number of vehicles Google Waymo Technology will change 100,000 50k vehicles more ? Uber Volvo Impact on supply chain 10,000 4k / 8k / 12k Lyft GM from Volvo Unnoticed 5k vehicles more ? 1,000 Baidu BYD 500 vehicles 300 vehicles from FCA expected Launch in 2018 100 200 vehicles 200? $1.5B financing 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 24 AEB PRODUCTS VS SENSOR TECHNOLOGY > 80 km/h Radar ACC 50-80 km/h Camera + Radar + 10-50 km/h Camera • Radar is massively employed in AEB systems especially for inter urban conditions where vehicle velocity is high and detection range has to be at least 250m. Half of the case, it is used in combination with cameras. • For AEB city, camera is preferred for the moment as it can accommodate shorter distance due to reduced velocity and object recognition has a critical importance especially for pedestrian detection. 25 AUTOMOTIVE LIDAR SHIPMENT 40 35 30 25 20 Volume in million units 15 10 5 0 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 Robotic Cars 0.006 0.012 0.048 0.096 0.14 0.24 0.39 0.63 0.90 1.3 1.7 2.3 2.8 3.5 4.6 5.8 7.4 ADAS Vehicles 0.00 0.01 0.05 0.1 0.2 0.3 1.0 1.5 2.2 3.4 5.9 8.6 11.9 15.6 19.3 23.8 26.6 Total 0.006 0.022 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.6 1.4 2.2 3.1 4.7 7.7 10.9 14.7 19.1 23.9 29.6 34.0 26 AUTOMOTIVE LIDAR MARKET 20,000 18,000 16,000 14,000 12,000 10,000 REvenues in lillion dollars 8,000 6,000 4,000 2,000 0 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 Robotic Cars $111 $181 $590 $953 $1,200 $1,614 $2,231 $3,131 $3,833 $4,655 $5,075 $5,235 $5,506 $5,786 $6,540 $7,313 $8,211 ADAS Vehicles $- $8 $37 $68 $95 $176 $509 $740 $1,019
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