4TH INTERNATIONAL CLIMATE CHANGE ADAPTATION CONFERENCE ROTTERDAM THE NETHERLANDS 10 – 13 MAY 2016 ADAPTATION FUTURES 2016 practices and solutions SCIENCE ABSTRACTS SCIENCE ABSTRACTS INTRODUCTION ADAPTATION FUTURES 2016 – THE SCIENCE CHAPTER Climate change is one of the century’s biggest challenges. People are confronted with the consequences of sea level rise, of increasing heat in the cities, of droughts and of floods. To help people protect themselves, adaptation strategies are being developed, flood protection plans carried out, new water conservation and exploration techniques are invented and trees are planted in cities to decrease heat. Adaptation to climate change is a challenge that cannot be solved by practitioners or scientists alone. They have to work together to find innovative solutions to problems that otherwise cannot be solved. Adaptation to climate change not only requires innovations in the technical field. It also challenges existing governance structures, financial arrangements, decision-making processes and laws. Scientists and practitioners from different fields of knowledge and expertise need to cooperate. Adaptation Futures 2016 offers a platform where scientists and practitioners from over 100 countries and many disciplines will meet and discuss new scientific results, implementation challenges, tools and business cases for adaptation. In the programme book you can find descriptions of more than 155 sessions. This abstract book contains summaries of the presentations in the science sessions. In June 2015 we sent out a call for science abstracts for oral presentations and posters. The result was almost thousand abstracts ranging over the seven themes and three cross-cutting issues selected by the conference’s Steering Committee. A group of 56 scientists (conveners) assessed all these abstracts and approved 257 as oral presentations and 105 as poster presentations. They then proposed a programme for the science sessions, that was approved by the Science Advisory Committee and subsequently by the Steering Committee. In this book you find all the abstracts approved per theme and cross-cutting issue. ADAPTATION FUTURES 2016 4 CONTENT THEMES 1. CITIES AND INFRASTRUCTURE 9 SC 1.1 Critical infrastructure 10 SC 1.2 Decision support 14 SC 1.3 Regional perspectives on vulnerability and adaptation 19 SC 1.4 Heat in the city 23 SC 1.5 Adaptation processes 27 SC 1.6 Designing a climate resilient future 32 SC 1.7 Devising solutions to adaptation challenges in cities 36 2. FOOD, FORESTRY AND RURAL LIVELIHOODS 43 SC 2.1 New methods in modelling climate change impacts and adaptation 44 SC 2.2 Rural livelihoods and small holder farming systems 49 SC 2.3 Food production systems 52 SC 2.4 Climate change adaptation with mitigation co-benefits in forests and woodlands 57 SC 2.5 Governance, barriers and conflict in climate change adaptation 61 SC 2.6 Risk, vulnerability and resilience in climate change adaptation 64 SC 2.7 Societal responses to climate change in agriculture 69 SC 2.8 Adapting cropping systems to a CO2 rich atmosphere: opportunities and challenges for food and water security 74 SC 2.9 New climate change and food system assessments: coordinating global and regional scales 76 SC 2.10 Adapting farming systems to climate variability and change in Europe: the Macsur experience 80 3. FRESH WATER AVAILABILITY AND ACCESS 85 SC 3.1 Fresh water availability under drought conditions as a potential driver for water conflicts 86 SC 3.2 Fresh water availability and access: guidelines and methodologies 89 SC 3.3 Improving fresh water availability: measures under climate change 94 4. PUBLIC HEALTH 99 SC 4.1 Limits to human health system adaptation 100 SC 4.2 Adapting to heat in OECD countries 104 SC 4.3 Adapting to heat in South Asia 109 SC 4.4 Climate risks for infectious diseases 112 SC 4.5 Impacts on health in a changing environment 115 SP 4.1 Early warning systems in public health 119 ROTTERDAM THE NETHERLANDS 10 – 13 MAY 2016 5 CONTENT 5. ECOSYSTEMS AND ECOSYSTEM BASED ADAPTATION 121 SC 5.1 Ecosystem services for climate adaptation 122 SC 5.2 Ecosystem management for nature protection and climate adaptation 126 SC 5.3 Implementing ecosystem-based approaches for adaptation 131 SC 5.4 Building the knowledge base for ecosystem based adaptation 135 SC 5.5 Economic assessment of climate adaptation 140 6. DISASTER RISK REDUCTION 145 SC 6.1 Measuring and enhancing resilience 146 SC 6.2 Floods: recent experience and long-term planning 150 SC 6.3 Tools and approaches to assess disaster reduction strategies 154 SC 6.4 Planning for climate change 159 SC 6.5 Disaster risk preparedness 163 SC 6.6 Linking climate change adaptation, disaster risk reduction, and loss & damage: lessons toward resilient Asia-Pacific region 167 SC 6.7 Megacity transitions: towards justice with resilience 172 7. THE ARCTIC 179 SC 7.1 Scenarios, governance and adaptation in the Arctic 180 SC 7.2 Understanding adaptation in the Arctic 183 SC 7.3 The role of narratives and discourses in shaping adaptation, adaptive capacity and mitigation to climate change: cases from the Arctic 186 ADAPTATION FUTURES 2016 6 CONTENT CROSS-CUTTING ISSUES 8. RISK ASSESSMENT, ADAPTATION PLANNING AND EVALUATION 191 SC 8.1 Risk management and risk perception 192 SC 8.2 Vulnerability assessment 196 SC 8.3 Multi-sector integrated assessments of impacts and adaptation 200 SC 8.4 Indicators and modelling of impacts and adaptation 205 SC 8.5 Stakeholder needs and adaptation 209 SC 8.6 Participatory processes and co-production of adaptation knowledge 213 SC 8.7 Adaptation support tools 218 SC 8.8 Adaptation pathways and maladaptation 223 SC 8.9 Use and usability of climate information in adaptation planning 228 SC 8.10 Adaptation in coastal systems 233 SC 8.11 Gender and adaptation 238 SC 8.12 Adaptation guidance 243 SC 8.13 Economics, investment and business 247 SC 8.15 Tracking adaptation to climate change for MRE 251 9. INSTITUTIONS AND GOVERNANCE 255 SC 9.1 Water and climate adaptation governance 256 SC 9.2 Power and agency issues in climate adaptation 261 SC 9.3 Science and policy interfaces for adaptation 266 SC 9.4 Governance challenges of climate adaptation 270 SC 9.5 Implementation challenges of climate adaptation 275 SC 9.6 Climate adaptation goes global 280 SC 9.7 The policy-economic aspects of adaptation responses 284 SC 9.8 New governance challenges for climate adaptation: comparative perspectives on inclusive policy tools for multi-scalar risk management 289 SC 9.10 Incorporating uncertain scientific evidence into real-world adaptation decision making: what are the missing links? 292 SC 9.11 Institutional economics of adaptation 296 SC 9.12 Local governance of adaptation in urbanising cities 299 SC 9.13 Adapting scientific methodologies - how to compare and evaluate case studies as well as integrate and upscale data and information? 303 10. FINANCE, INVESTMENT AND BUSINESS 305 SC 10.1 Finance for adaptation 306 SC 10.2 Sectoral perspectives on climate finance, investment and business 310 SC 10.3 Options and opportunities for the loss and damage mechanism: understanding the roles of risk management, finance and climate justice 316 ROTTERDAM THE NETHERLANDS 10 – 13 MAY 2016 7 CONTENT POSTERS THEMES 1. Cities and infrastructure 322 2. Food, forestry and rural livelihoods 332 3. Fresh water availability and access 348 4. Public health 356 5. Ecosystems and ecosystem based adaptation 359 6. Disaster risk reduction 368 CROSS-CUTTING ISSUES 8. Risk assessment, adaptation planning and evaluation 377 9. Institutions and governance 406 10. Finance, investment and business 428 AUTHOR INDEX 433 ORGANISATION 446 CONTACT AND COLOPHON 450 ADAPTATION FUTURES 2016 8 THEMES 1. CITIES AND INFRASTRUCTURE ROTTERDAM THE NETHERLANDS 10 – 13 MAY 2016 9 THEMES 1. CITIES AND INFRASTRUCTURE SC 1.1 CRITICAL INFRASTRUCTURE ABSSUB-626 SC 1.1 The relevance of cascading effects for adapting critical infrastructures to climate change Markus Groth* 1, Jörg Cortekar1, Steffen Bender1 1 Climate Service Center Germany (GERICS), Hamburg, Germany Research question: Critical infrastructures are of special importance since failure or functional impairment can have immediate and high impacts on more sectors as well as to the whole society. Therefore their consideration is of high relevance for strategies focused on adaptation to climate change. Furthermore energy-, water supply-, communication- and transport-infrastructures are often closely linked to each other and failures can propagate. There is still an urgent need for research on how to identify and deal with these so called cascading effects when it comes to adapting critical infrastructures to climate change. This research question will be addressed focussing on the German energy and water infrastructure. Methodology: Energy supply as well as water supply and wastewater treatment are central parts of critical infrastructures. Based on a synthesis (literature review) of the current knowledge regarding the possible impacts of climate change on the German energy and water sector, the paper analyses where critical interdependencies are likely to occur. Furthermore, it discusses how these cascading effects could be addressed while adapting critical infrastructures to climate change, and highlights practical implications both for companies and policy makers. Findings: Interactions between critical infrastructures have become a growing phenomenon as they are not only a point of potential vulnerability but may also compound existing vulnerabilities and carry them across multiple infrastructure sectors, like water and energy. For example the transport of water itself is in most cases dependent on energy to pump water. Although it is to be expected that water will being accessed from longer distances to meet the public water needs, which will also increase the consumption of electricity. The dependency of water on electric power has already been underscored by power outages that threatened water services or actually did bring water production and wastewater treatment to a halt.