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Changes in Hydrological Extremes and Climate Variability in the Severn Uplands

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Changes in Hydrological Extremes and Climate Variability in the Severn Uplands University of Southampton Research Repository ePrints Soton Copyright © and Moral Rights for this thesis are retained by the author and/or other copyright owners. A copy can be downloaded for personal non-commercial research or study, without prior permission or charge. This thesis cannot be reproduced or quoted extensively from without first obtaining permission in writing from the copyright holder/s. The content must not be changed in any way or sold commercially in any format or medium without the formal permission of the copyright holders. When referring to this work, full bibliographic details including the author, title, awarding institution and date of the thesis must be given e.g. AUTHOR (year of submission) "Full thesis title", University of Southampton, name of the University School or Department, PhD Thesis, pagination http://eprints.soton.ac.uk University of Southampton Faculty of Engineering, Science and Mathematics School of Geography Changes in Hydrological Extremes and Climate Variability in the Severn Uplands Eloise M. Biggs Thesis for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy September 2009 UNIVERSITY OF SOUTHAMPTON ABSTRACT FACULTY OF ENGINEERING, SCIENCE AND MATHEMATICS SCHOOL OF GEOGRAPHY Doctor of Philosophy CHANGES IN HYDROLOGICAL EXTREMES AND CLIMATE VARIABILITY IN THE SEVERN UPLANDS By Eloise Marie Biggs Hydrological extremes within the UK have increased in intensity, frequency and persistence over recent years and are predicted to increase in variability throughout the 21st century. Past and future changes in hydrological extremes relative to climate change were investigated within Severn Uplands, a climate sensitive catchment. Using the Mann- Kendall trend detection test, time-series analysis over a 30-year period revealed a significant increase in winter and autumn precipitation and a decrease in summer precipitation. The analysis of flow time-series indicated an increase in winter and July flows and a decrease in spring flows. Changes in climate variability over the same period showed increases in air temperature and SST, and a reduction in snow cover. Climate variables were found to largely correlate with hydrological extremes which were characteristic of certain weather types and largely influenced by the NAO. To model future flows within the Severn Uplands a hydrological model (HEC-HMS) was used to simulate hydrological processes. The extreme hydrological event of November- December 2006 was used to calibrate the model. The difference between using radar and gauge precipitation data to drive the model was quantified. Radar data resulted in the smallest prediction accuracy followed by gauge-corrected radar data (corrected using the mean-field bias where gauge rainfall was interpolated using cokriging) and then gauge precipitation which had the largest prediction accuracy. Model accuracy was sufficient using the gauge corrected radar and gauge precipitation data as inputs, so both were altered for future predictions to investigate the propagation of uncertainty. Predicted changes in temperature and precipitation by the UKCIP02 scenarios were used to alter the baseline extreme event to predict changes in peak flow and outflow volume. Both radar- and gauge- driven hydrological modelling predicted large flow increases for the 21st century with increases up to 8% by the 2020s, 18% by the 2050s and 30% by the 2080s. Discrepancies between predictions were observed when using the different data inputs. Contents List of Figures i List of Tables v Declaration vii Acknowledgements viii Abbreviations x CHAPTER 1 Introduction 1 1.1 Fluvial flooding 1 1.2 UK flooding 2 1.3 Future flood implications 4 1.4 Summary 5 1.5 Research aim 5 CHAPTER 2 Literature Review 7 2.1 Climate change 7 2.1.1 Global warming 8 2.1.2 UK warming 9 2.1.3 Precipitation change 9 2.2 Extremes 11 2.2.1 Flow 11 2.2.2 Precipitation 12 2.2.3 Future changes 12 2.3 Climate Modelling 13 2.3.1 Global climate models 13 2.3.2 Regional climate models 14 2.3.3 UKCIP02 scenarios 16 2.4 Hydrological Modelling 17 2.4.1 Rainfall-runoff 18 2.4.1.1 HEC-HMS 19 2.4.2 Radar rainfall 19 2.4.3 Future simulations 22 2.5 Hydroclimatology in the 21st Century 22 2.6 Summary 29 2.7 Research objectives 30 CHAPTER 3 Methods 33 3.1 Trend analysis 33 3.1.1 Testing for homogeneity 35 3.1.2 Testing for normality 35 3.1.3 Testing for serial correlation 36 3.1.4 Testing for trends 37 3.2 Hydrological modelling 38 3.2.1 Basin model 39 3.2.1.1 Loss 39 3.2.1.2 Baseflow 40 3.2.1.3 Transform 41 3.2.1.4 Routing 44 3.2.2 Meteorological model 46 3.2.3 Control specifications 48 3.3 Model Optimisation 49 3.3.1 Sensitivity analysis 49 3.3.2 Calibration 51 3.3.3 Validation 53 3.3.4 Uncertainty analysis 53 3.4 Radar and gauge comparisons 54 3.4.1 Raw data 54 3.4.2 Geostatistical interpolation 56 3.4.2.1 Cokriging 56 3.4.2.2 The semivariogram 58 3.4.2.3 Cross-validation 59 3.5 Radar correction 60 3.6 Climate scenarios 61 3.6.1 Precipitation 61 3.6.2 Evaporation 62 3.7 Summary 62 CHAPTER 4 Study Site 63 4.1 Location 64 4.2 Topology 65 4.3 Geology 65 4.4 Geomorphology 66 4.5 Hydrology 67 4.6 Climate 69 4.7 Land use 70 4.8 Flooding 71 4.9 Summary 72 CHAPTER 5 Trends in Hydrological Extremes and Climate 74 Variability 5.1 Data selection 74 5.2 Homogeneity, normality and serial correlation 75 5.3 Precipitation and flow time-series analysis 77 5.3.1 Extreme intensity 78 5.3.1.1 QMED exceedence 79 5.3.1.2 Precipitation maxima 80 5.3.1.3 Flow maxima 80 5.3.2 Extreme frequency 82 5.3.2.1 Precipitation percentiles 82 5.3.2.2 Flow percentiles 84 5.3.3 Extreme persistence 84 5.3.3.1 Precipitation N-Day maxima 85 5.4 Climate variability 85 5.4.1 Weather patterns 85 5.4.2 Sea surface temperatures 91 5.4.3 Air temperatures 92 5.4.4 North Atlantic oscillation 93 5.4.5 Snow cover and depth 97 5.4.6 Teleconnections 102 5.5 Discussion 103 5.5.1 Temporal climatic shifts 105 5.5.2 Physical catchment properties 106 5.6 Summary 110 CHAPTER 6 Modelling the Severn Uplands 112 6.1 Data selection 112 6.2 HEC-GeoHMS 114 6.2.1 Terrain pre-processing 115 6.2.2 Basin processing 116 6.2.3 Hydrologic parameter estimation 116 6.3 Model parameters 117 6.4 Time-series inputs 119 6.5 Pre-calibration results 121 6.6 Parameter selection for model calibration 122 6.7 Calibration 130 6.8 Validation 133 6.9 Uncertainty 135 6.9 Summary 136 CHAPTER 7 The Comparison, Correction and Performance of 137 Precipitation Data 7.1 Precipitation data comparison 138 7.1.1 Gauges 138 7.1.2 Radar 138 7.1.3 Data selection and pre-processing 140 7.1.4 Comparison measures 141 7.1.4.1 Prediction accuracy 141 7.1.4.2 Coefficient of correlation 143 7.1.4.3 Bias 143 7.1.4.4 Root mean squared error 143 7.1.4.5 Root mean squared factor 144 7.1.5 Explanatory factors 144 7.2 Independent calibration 147 7.3 Radar data correction 148 7.3.1 Geostatistical interpolation 150 7.3.1.1 Covariates 151 7.3.1.2 Data distributions 152 7.3.1.3 Trends 153 7.3.1.4 Cokriging 153 7.3.1.5 Cross-validation 157 7.3.1.6 Standard error surface 157 7.3.2 Mean field bias 158 7.3.3 Corrected radar rainfall 159 7.4 Improvements in hydrological modelling 160 7.5 Radar validation 161 7.6 Discussion 163 7.6.1 Radar capabilities 163 7.6.2 Gauge rainfall as reference 164 7.6.3 Modelling constraints 165 7.6.4 Method limitations 165 7.6.5 Equifinality 166 7.7 Summary 167 CHAPTER 8 Future Hydrological Extremes 168 8.1 Data selection 168 8.2 Precipitation changes 169 8.3 Evaporation changes 170 8.4 Changes in extreme flows 176 8.4.1 Gauge changes 176 8.4.2 Radar changes 176 8.4.3 Comparing gauge and radar predictions 179 8.4.4 Comparing precipitation and flow 180 8.5 Climate modelling uncertainty 181 8.6 Sensitivity analysis 182 8.6.1 Gauge uncertainty margins 185 8.6.2 Radar uncertainty margins 185 8.6.3 Comparing uncertainty margins 185 8.7 Future catchment conditions 187 8.7.1 Temperature 187 8.7.2 Evaporation 188 8.7.3 Precipitation and weather patterns 189 8.7.4 Snowmelt 189 8.7.5 Land use 190 8.8 Flood implications 193 8.9 Summary 194 CHAPTER 9 Uncertainty and Further Research 195 9.1 Uncertainty 195 9.1.1 Data inputs 196 9.1.2 Model simplifications 197 9.1.2.1 Hydrological models 197 9.1.2.2 Climate models 198 9.1.2.3 Physical representation 199 9.1.3 Future conditions 199 9.1.4 Feedback 200 9.1.5 Uncertainty propagation 201 9.2 Limitations and improvements 204 9.2.1 Hydrological model 204 9.2.2 Climate change projections 205 9.2.3 Time-series analysis 205 9.3 Further research 206 9.3.1 Aspects of extremes 207 9.3.2 Updated climate scenarios 207 9.3.3 Workflow 208 9.3.4 Alternative catchments 209 9.4 Summary 209 CHAPTER 10 Conclusions 211 References 214 Appendices 239 Appendix 1 Durbin-Watson test scores 239 Appendix 2 Climate variables correlation matrices 240 Appendix 3 Cross-sections 255 Appendix 4 Temperature change predictions 260 Appendix 5 Uncertainty margin predictions 264 Appendix 6 Peer-reviewed publications from thesis research 269 List of Figures Figure 1.1 Broad overview of research outline Figure 2.1 Change in average annual and seasonal precipitation (with respect to model-simulated 1961-1990 climate) for thirty-year periods centred on the 2020s, 2050s and 2080s for the Low Emissions scenario.
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