Recurrence Frequency of Flood Levels in the Tuggerah Lake System
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The quality of this digital copy is an accurate reproduction of the original print copy .123 BEOURRENCE FREQUENCY OF FLOOD LEVELS IN THE TUGGERAH LAKE SYSTEM K.C.Yong and P.B.Stone February, 1971 RECURRENCE FREQUENCY OF FLOOD LEVELS IN THE TUGGERAH LAKE SYSTEM by K. C. Yong and P. B. Stone https://doi.org/10.4225/53/57a17218c046d Report No. 123 February, 1971. KEY WORDS Hydrograph analysis Lakes Rainfall Runoff Unit hydrographs 0-85824-009-2 Preface The present study was undertaken by the Water Research Laboratory of the University of New South Wales at the request of the Electricity Commission of New South Wales. Throughout the study close liaison was maintained with the Engineering Staff of the Electricity Commission and the assistance of Messrs. C. G. Coulter and A.N. Lamb is gratefully acknowledged. The study was undertaken by Mr. K. C. Yong, engineer on the staff of the Water Research Laboratory under the supervision of Mr. P.B. Stone and the direction of Mr. D.N.Foster. D,N. Foster, Acting Officer-in-Charge. Summary. This report describes the results of an investigation carried out to estimate the flood levels in Tuggerah, Budgewoi and Munmorah lakes making use of the rainfall-runoff data available over the past seven or eight years, Unitgraphs were derived for Wyong and Ourimbah creeks and syn- thetic unitgraphs computed for Wallarah Creek and the remaining catch- ment areas surrounding the lakes. Inflow hydrographs were computed by applying design rainfalls to the unitgraphso These inflows were routed through the storage system of three lakes, taking into account discharge characteristics of Budgewoi channel, discharge characteristics of constriction at Toukley Bridge and outflow characteristics at the Entrance channel to arrive at the resulting lake levels for floods of various recurrence frequencies. These flood levels can be used to estimate the design basement level for power stations proposed for this area. Table of Contents Page No. Summary 1. Introduction 1. 2o Analysis of Historical Data 1. 3. Catchments 3, 3. 1 Catchment Areas 3. 3. 2 Critical Storm Duration 4. 4. Rainfall 4. 4o 1 Rainfall Data 5. 4. 2 Probable Maximum Precipitation 5, 4.21 Thunderstorm Model 5. 4.22 Transposed U.S.A. Data 6. 4.23 Transposed Dunedoo Storm 6. 4e 3 Summary of Rainfall Results 7. 5. Stream Flows 7. 5. 1 Gauging Stations 7. 5. 2 Unitgraph Derivation 7. 6. Lake and Channel Topography 7. 6. 1 Storage Elevation Relationships 7. 6. 2 Channel Characteristics 8. 7. Model Study of the Entrance Channel 8. 7. 1 Survey Information 8. 7, 2 Scale Ratio 9. 7.21 Linear Ratios 9. 7„ 22 Scour Velocity Ratio 9. 7.23 Friction Ratio 9, 7.24 Scour Time Ratio 10. 7.25 Summary of Scales 10. 7.3 Model Construction 10. 7. 4 Testing Program and Results 11. 8. Inflow Hydrographs 1 8. 1 Temporal Pattern of Storm 1 8,2 Hydrograph Synthesis 1 9. Flood Routing 1 9. 1 Flood Routing Program 1 9. 2 Program Verification 12, 9. 3 Flood Levels 13» Table of Contents (cont'd.) Page No. 10. Storm Surge 16. 11. Conclusions l®* References Appendix I: Seismic Survey - Entrance North Sandspit dated 15th Sept. 1969. Al. Appendix II: Details of the computer programme Bl. List of Figures, Figo 1: Flood stage-recurrence frequency relationship for Tuggerah Lake system. Figo 2: Location of rain gauges and gauging stations for Wyong, Ourimbah and Wallerah catchments. Figo 3: Depth-area-duration curves for Wyong, Ourimbah and Wallerah catchments. Fig. 4: Summary of derived and synthetic 2-hour unitgraphs. Figo 5: The storage elevation relationships for Tuggerah, Budgewoi and Munmorah lakes. Fig. 6: Cross section 'M' at Budgewoi channel. Fig. 7: Cross section at Toukley Bridge. Fig. 8: Contour plan of the Entrance area. Fig. 9: Photograph of the Entrance area. Fig. 10: Cross section C-C at Entrance<, Fig. 11: Particle size distribution curves» Figo 12: The Entrance - lake level and waterway area Fig» 13: The Entrance - Channel water surface width. Figo 14: Temporal storm patterns. Figo 15: Inflow hydrographs for 1 in 10 year return period storm of duration 96 hourSo Figo 16: Inflow hydrographs for 1 in 100 years return period storm of duration 96 hours . Fig. 17: Inflow hydrograph for 1 in 1000 years return period storm of duration 96 hours. Figo 18: Inflow hydrographs for the probable maximum precipitation (P.M. P.) of duration 96 hours. Figo 19: Discharge characteristics of thel^ntrance channel. 1. Introduction This report deals with flood levels in the Tuggerah Lakes system (LakesMunmorah, Budgewoi and Tuggerah). The work was commissioned by the Electricity Commission of New South Wales whose interest in flood levels is related to the design of power stations on the low lying land ad- jacent to the lakes. The information needed was the flood level in the lakes for each of a number of return periods. Two methods were used ; anamlytic rainfall-runoff analysis and an historical analysis of lake levels, 2» Analysis of Historical Data For recent years (1961-1969) records of flood levels were available (Refo4) and prior tothis historical information of reported lake levels has been assembled (Ref, 5), In addition, enquiries were made of the Department of Main Roads who have recently built a road bridge in the area» The data obtained from the various sources are summarised in Table lo Table 1; Summary of Flood Data Year Lake Level Remarks RL.fto 1927 Data taken from Refa 5 (highest reported 1931 101 + 3'-5' / flood level - RLol07o5)o According to 1941 101 + 3'-5' Mr<,Hutton the floods of 1927 and 1949 1946 107.5 J were generally the same heights within one or two inches (Bannister and Hunter's report dated 10, 12, 64). 1949 107o72 This was the highest reported flood level in the boatshed but the flood level taken by Mr. Hutton+ was RL. 107, 28'. Minimum lake level is assumed at RL. 101'» 0 + MroHutton is a local resident who lives adjacent to the northern approaches of the existing wooden bridge. The information given by MroHutton is con- tained in a report submitted by Bannister and Hunter, Land Engineering and Mining Surveyors, to the Division Engineer^ Department of Maiii Roads, Newcastle^ on 10th December 1964« The report was made available by engineers of the Department of Main Roads, Sydney. 2. Table 1 (cont'd. ) Summary of Flood Data Year Lake Level Remarks RL. ft. 1953 101 + 3' -5 Data taken from Ref. 5 1961 102.3 1962 104, 0 1963 105. 2 1964 106.0 Data taken from Ref, 4, 1965 101. 5 1966 101. 8 1967 102.35 1969 102.07 ed There was a slight variation in the maximum report/flood level from the various sources and it was assumed that the maximum level achieved since 1900 was RL. 107. 6. A simplistic analysis of these data leads to the conclusion that the recurrence interval for a lake level of 107. 6 was 70 years. This period may be reduced if a higher level which was not reported occurred in the period. However, it may be said that a crude analysis of the historical data gave a recurrence interval of 70 years for a lake level of RL. 107. 6. From 1S61 to 1969 accurate data of significant lake level rises were available in reference 4. This information was extrapolated using Gambel's theory of extreme value statistics. This theory is expressed in the formula:- -e-b = 1 - 1 where b = (X - X + 0.45 ci ) 0.7797ir the variables being defined as P - the probability of an occurrence of a value equal to or greater than x = 1/tp return period in years e = base of Naperian logarithms b - constant X = average of flood levels in the series standard deviation of the series The extrapolation based on this theory is shown in Figure 1 from which it was deduceflthat the return period for a lake level of RL. 107o 6 is 80 years, comparable with the estimate of 70 years made from the incomplete set of datao The remainder of this report deals with analytic method of predicting lake levels using rainfall-runoff analyses and the results of a mobile bed model study« 3. Catchments 3o 1 Catchment Areas Floods in the lake system are the result of rainfall on the surrounding catchment areas and rainfall on the lakes. Four catchment areas were used in this analysis, namely (i) Wyong Creek upstream of Wyong Weir (134 sq, miles) (ii) Ourimbah Creek (54.45 sq, miles) (iii) Wallarah Creek(i2„.4 sq, miles) (iv) Remaining areas (57,5 sq. miles) The remaining areas were generally small areas adjacent to the lakes and containing no major stream. The drainage patterns to the individual lakes are shown in Table 2. Table 2 Inflow Distribution Lake Lake area Components of Summation Percentage sq® miles drainage areas of areas of total feeding into lake sq, miles sq, miles Tuggerah 22.4 (1) Wyong Creek at Wyong Weir - 134 (2) Ourimbah Ck. 228; 70 88,5 = 54,45 (3) 70 per cent of remaining areas=40,25 Budgewoi 5.5 (1) Wallarah Ck. = 12.4 21o0 8, 1 (2) 15% of remain- ing areas = 8.6 4. Table 2 (cont'd. ) Inflow Distribu" :ion T iike Lake area Componoits of Sunmiation Percentage sq. miles drainage areas of areas of total feeding into lake sq. miles sq. miles Munmorah 3.0 (1) 15% of remain- ing area = 8.6 8. 6 3.4 Total 30.4 Total 258.3 • 1 3. 2 Critical Storm Duration For runoff from the catchments into the lakes the critical storm duration will be short but due to the large storage capacity of the lakes the critical storm duration for lake level will be increased above that for the streams.