Scenarios for Norway
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NorwayNorway——AA ReportReport onon TRANSES/GLUETRANSES/GLUE jointjoint researchresearch projectsprojects Dr. Bjorn H. Bakken Energy Systems SINTEF Energy Research Trondheim, Norway email: [email protected] http://www.energy.sintef.no SINTEF Energiforskning AS Trondheim (1300) The Foundation for Scientific and Oslo (450) Industrial Research at the Norwegian Institute of Technology EstablishedEstablished 19501950 byby TheThe NorwegianNorwegian InstituteInstitute ofof TechnologyTechnology (NTH)(NTH) TurnoverTurnover 2005:2005: $$ 300300 mill.mill. Employees:Employees: 1.8001.800 SINTEF Energiforskning AS PartnershipPartnership withwith NTNUNTNU The Norwegian University of Science and Technology (NTNU), Trondheim 20,000 full-time students 935 Scientific employees 149 PostDoc 731 PhD Students NTNU personnel working on SINTEF employees SINTEF projects teach at NTNU Joint use of laboratories and instruments SINTEF Energiforskning AS SINTEFSINTEF EnergyEnergy ResearchResearch Employees (2005): 179 Turnover (2005): $ 35 mill. SINTEF Energiforskning AS SourcesSources ofof fundingfunding SINTEF Energiforskning AS EnergyEnergy systemsystem analysisanalysis atat SINTEFSINTEF EnergyEnergy ResearchResearch (~60(~60 pers.)pers.) Time scale Investments / (MARKAL) / eTransport System planning EMPS / SHOP / USELOAD Production planning / Resource management PSS/E / MatLab / SPF Congestion / Reserve management PSS/E / MatLab / Power system stability / SIMPOW Integration of RES-E EMTDC/ PSCAD Design & Operation ms sec. min. day/week year of power electronics SINTEF Energiforskning AS TRANSESTRANSES –– TransitionTransition toto SustainableSustainable EnergyEnergy ServicesServices inin NorthernNorthern EuropeEurope A joint research program NTNU / SINTEF / MIT / Chalmers 2004 – 2007 SINTEF Energiforskning AS TRANSESTRANSES ObjectivesObjectives Outline and evaluate likely technology portfolios, deployment paths and policy options to meet future energy service needs in a cost-effective and sustainable manner in a liberalized energy market environment Create an international arena for dissemination of results, dialogue and exchange of ideas in order to gain a swifter transition to sustainable energy services Provide a toolbox of computational tools, methods and databases for analysis and decision support under uncertainty PhD education and long-term scientific cooperation between the institutions involved SINTEF Energiforskning AS TRANSESTRANSES SponsorsSponsors Project idea created by Hydro, The Industry’s Innovation Fund at NTNU and Dept. of Energy and Process Engineering, NTNU Project management by SINTEF Energy Research Current budget (2004-2007): USD 2.1 million Current sponsors: Hydro Statoil Norske Shell Statkraft (Norwegian State Power Company) Statnett (Norwegian Grid Company) Statsbygg (Directorate of Public Construction and Property) Enova (Agency for Energy efficiency and Renewable energy) NVE (Norwegian Water and Energy agency) ... SINTEF Energiforskning AS ScientificScientific partnerspartners ofof TRANSESTRANSES Dept. of Energy and Process Engineering, NTNU Dept. of Electrical Power Engineering, NTNU Dept. of Architectural Design, History and Technology, NTNU SINTEF Energy Research The Laboratory For Energy and the Environment (LFEE) at MIT Institute for Energy Technology (IFE) Programme for Sustainable Development (Prosus), UiO Dept. of Energy Technology, Chalmers SINTEF Materials and chemistry .... NTNU MIT SINTEF Energiforskning AS ElectricityElectricity GenerationGeneration inin NordelNordel 20022002 (TWh)(TWh) 129.7 39.8 65.6 66.0 21.4 NORWAY 10.6 0.8 FINLAND 11.2 0.6 Conv. thermal 32.3 Nuclear SWEDEN Hydro 4.9 Wind DENMARK SINTEF Energiforskning AS TotalTotal energyenergy consumptionconsumption inin NorwayNorway 19701970 -- 20012001 TWh/year 250 200 150 Natural and other gasses 100 Oil products District heating Electricity Electricity +2.6% p.a. Wood and waste 50 Coal and coke 1970 1972 1974 1976 1978 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 SINTEF Energiforskning AS AnnualAnnual increaseincrease inin generationgeneration andand consumptionconsumption 19601960 -- 20002000 AverageAverage increase increase in generation TWh/year in generation 3.5 AverageAverage increase increase 3.0 inin consumptionconsumption 2.5 2.0 1.5 1.0 0.5 0 1960-1970 1970-1980 1980-1990 1990-2000 SINTEF Energiforskning AS GenerationGeneration capacitycapacity vs.vs. consumptionconsumption 19761976 -- 20012001 140 Average generation 2002 (119 TWh/year) 120 100 80 Consumption 60 TWh/year 40 20 0 1976 1981 1986 1991 1996 2001 SINTEF Energiforskning AS TRANSESTRANSES WorkPackageWorkPackage organizationorganization (2003)(2003) WP.03WP.03 StakeholderStakeholder WorkshopsWorkshops WP.04 WP.05 Energy MIT Scenarios Trade-off Networking Project Management WP.02 WP.06 WP.07 WP.08 WP.09 WP.10 WP.11 WP.01 Building MARKAL Energy Generation Hydrogen PhD Sector Demand Infrastr. PostDoc SINTEF Energiforskning AS EMPS:EMPS: MMultiulti--AreaArea PPowerower MarketMarket SSimulatorimulator Example of spot price scenarios 400 Reservoir utilization in EMPS Model 350 20000 300 ElectricityMinimum import to Norway (TWh/year) 25 percentile 250 Median 15000 40 75 percentile 200 Maximum 30 150 10000 GWh Market price(NOK/MWh) 20 100 50 10 5000 0 0 1 21416181101 3 3 6 5 2 7 7 1 6 8 6 7 8 4 7 67 3 6 65 3 8 46 7 8 80 4 3 7 41 Amount (TWh/year) 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 1990 1989 19 1 1 1 1968 1954 19 1 Week1 1975 number1934 1972 1 1 1 1933 1955 1931 1 1 1 1951 1947 19 1 1 1 1970 0 -10 34 38 42 46 50 54 58 62 66 70 74 78 82 86 90 94Eksp 98 Finland 102 0.1 TWh/år SINTEF Energy Research 21 Week Eksport Danmark 0.3 TWh/år -20 Eksport Sverige 5.2 TWh/år Import Finland 0.2 TWh/år Import Danmark 4.3 TWh/år SINTEF Energy Research -30 Import Sverige 14.8 TWh/år3 Hydro year SINTEF Energiforskning AS 25 SINTEF Energiforskning AS EMPS:EMPS: SubSub systemsystem modelmodel Storable inflow Reservoir Non-storable inflow Power plant Wind power Thermal pro- production duction units Hydro production Transmission capacity Firm load Price to other subsystems dependent load SINTEF Energiforskning AS 2004:2004: OutliningOutlining mainmain scenariosscenarios SINTEF Energiforskning AS GenerationGeneration CapacityCapacity –– GreenBusGreenBus NordPool area 500 450 400 350 300 250 200 150 Annual Generation (TWh) 100 50 0 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 Hy dro Nuc Fossil Bio Gre Bus Wind CHP+ Imp SINTEF Energiforskning AS PowerPower pricesprices (excl.(excl. investments)investments) Norway 60 50 ore/kWh 40 30 20 10 0 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 BusUsa GreBus Seq RedC CeH2 Beyo SINTEF Energiforskning AS COCO2 emissionsemissions Nord Pool Area 100 Annual emissions CO2 90 80 MTonn 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 BusUsa GreBus Seq RedC CeH2 Beyo SINTEF Energiforskning AS 2005:2005: MARKALMARKAL simulationssimulations HYDRO/WIND/SOLAR/WAVE INDUSTRY DEMAND POWER PLANT ELEC. GRID OIL - REFINERY OIL HOUSEHOLD/SERV. CHP DEMAND NATURAL GAS HEAT GRID HEAT PLANT BIOMASS TRANSPORT DEMAND COAL/COKE COAL/COKE OIL/GAS BIOMASS SINTEF Energiforskning AS StructureStructure ofof thethe NordicNordic modelmodel (Electricity trade in Nordic countries 2003, source: NORDEL) 4 national models (el and heat) linked by electricity grid Fossil fuels common for the Nordic market (equal price) RES specific for each country Major electricity and heat production technologies harmonised Model years: 1995 – 2035 SINTEF Energiforskning AS MarkalMarkal:: ElectricityElectricity productionproduction scenariosscenarios 700 OTHER REN 600 BIOMASS 500 WIND NA TURE GA S 400 CO2 CA P NGS TWh 300 COA L CO2 CA P COA L 200 FOSSILE OTHER NUCLEA R 100 HY DRO 0 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 SINTEF Energiforskning AS 2006: Multiple scenario strategies (MIT/IFE) FromFrom 66 toto 11521152 scenariosscenarios 2 x 3 x 2 x 2 = 24 unique Futures Energy Demand Growth (2) Fuel Prices (3) CO2 Taxes (2) European Electricity Prices (2) 12 x 2 x 2 = 48 unique Strategies Electricity Supply (12) Renewables, Hydro, CCS, Nuclear etc Non Transportation Heat & Efficiency (2) Biomass, End-Use Efficiency Alternate Transportation Fuels (2) Conventional, Hybrids & Biofuels Total no. of scenarios: 24 x 48 = 1152 SINTEF Energiforskning AS TotalTotal costscosts vsvs emissionsemissions (1152(1152 total)total) Costs vs Emissions 950000 900000 850000 800000 Obj func 750000 Mill EUR EUR Mill 700000 650000 600000 0 00 0 0 000 000 000 0 000 4000 5 6000 7000000 8000 9000 1000000 10000000 1 CO2 [1000 tonnes] SINTEF Energiforskning AS Wind power costs 950000 900000 850000 Costs vs Emissions vs 800000 Mill750000 EUR emissions 700000 650000 600000 4000000 5000000 6000000 7000000 CO2 [1000 tonnes] 8000000 Ref wind Max wind 9000000 10000000 11000000 SINTEF Energiforskning AS CCS costs vs. emissions 950000 900000 850000 800000 Mill750000 EUR 700000 Costs vs Emissions 650000 600000 4000000 5000000 6000000 7000000 CO2 [1000 tonnes] 8000000 9000000 Costs without CCS Costs w CCS 10000000 11000000 SINTEF Energiforskning AS Transport 950000 Transport 900000 850000 800000 Costs vs Emissions Mill EUR 750000 700000 650000 600000 4000000 5000000 6000000 7000000 CO2 [1000 tonnes] 8000000 Ref Transport Bio and Hybrids 9000000 10000000 11000000 SINTEF Energiforskning AS TotalTotal costscosts vsvs emissionsemissions Costs vs Emissions 950000 900000 850000 Strat base + futures var R 800000 Strat max + futures var Strat var + futures base Mill EU 750000 Strat var + future max Strat var + future low 700000 650000 600000