NorwayNorway——AA ReportReport onon TRANSES/GLUETRANSES/GLUE jointjoint researchresearch projectsprojects

Dr. Bjorn H. Bakken Energy Systems SINTEF Energy Research , email: [email protected] http://www.energy.sintef.no

SINTEF Energiforskning AS Trondheim (1300)

The Foundation for Scientific and Oslo (450) Industrial Research at the Norwegian Institute of Technology

EstablishedEstablished 19501950 byby TheThe NorwegianNorwegian InstituteInstitute ofof TechnologyTechnology (NTH)(NTH) TurnoverTurnover 2005:2005: $$ 300300 mill.mill. Employees:Employees: 1.8001.800

SINTEF Energiforskning AS PartnershipPartnership withwith NTNUNTNU

„ The Norwegian University of Science and Technology (NTNU), Trondheim

„ 20,000 full-time students „ 935 Scientific employees „ 149 PostDoc „ 731 PhD Students

NTNU personnel working on SINTEF employees SINTEF projects teach at NTNU

Joint use of laboratories and instruments

SINTEF Energiforskning AS SINTEFSINTEF EnergyEnergy ResearchResearch

Employees (2005): 179 Turnover (2005): $ 35 mill.

SINTEF Energiforskning AS SourcesSources ofof fundingfunding

SINTEF Energiforskning AS EnergyEnergy systemsystem analysisanalysis atat SINTEFSINTEF EnergyEnergy ResearchResearch (~60(~60 pers.)pers.) Time scale

Investments / (MARKAL) / eTransport System planning

EMPS / SHOP / USELOAD Production planning / Resource management

PSS/E / MatLab / SPF Congestion / Reserve management

PSS/E / MatLab / Power system stability / SIMPOW Integration of RES-E EMTDC/ PSCAD Design & Operation ms sec. min. day/week year of power electronics

SINTEF Energiforskning AS TRANSESTRANSES –– TransitionTransition toto SustainableSustainable EnergyEnergy ServicesServices inin NorthernNorthern EuropeEurope

A joint research program NTNU / SINTEF / MIT / Chalmers 2004 – 2007

SINTEF Energiforskning AS TRANSESTRANSES ObjectivesObjectives

„ Outline and evaluate likely technology portfolios, deployment paths and policy options to meet future energy service needs in a cost-effective and sustainable manner in a liberalized energy market environment „ Create an international arena for dissemination of results, dialogue and exchange of ideas in order to gain a swifter transition to sustainable energy services „ Provide a toolbox of computational tools, methods and databases for analysis and decision support under uncertainty „ PhD education and long-term scientific cooperation between the institutions involved

SINTEF Energiforskning AS TRANSESTRANSES SponsorsSponsors

„ Project idea created by Hydro, The Industry’s Innovation Fund at NTNU and Dept. of Energy and Process Engineering, NTNU „ Project management by SINTEF Energy Research „ Current budget (2004-2007): USD 2.1 million „ Current sponsors: „ Hydro „ Statoil „ Norske Shell „ Statkraft (Norwegian State Power Company) „ Statnett (Norwegian Grid Company) „ Statsbygg (Directorate of Public Construction and Property) „ Enova (Agency for Energy efficiency and Renewable energy) „ NVE (Norwegian Water and Energy agency) „ ...

SINTEF Energiforskning AS ScientificScientific partnerspartners ofof TRANSESTRANSES

„ Dept. of Energy and Process Engineering, NTNU „ Dept. of Electrical Power Engineering, NTNU „ Dept. of Architectural Design, History and Technology, NTNU „ SINTEF Energy Research „ The Laboratory For Energy and the Environment (LFEE) at MIT „ Institute for Energy Technology (IFE) „ Programme for Sustainable Development (Prosus), UiO „ Dept. of Energy Technology, Chalmers „ SINTEF Materials and chemistry „ ....

NTNU MIT

SINTEF Energiforskning AS ElectricityElectricity GenerationGeneration inin NordelNordel 20022002 (TWh)(TWh)

129.7

39.8

65.6 66.0 21.4 NORWAY 10.6

0.8 FINLAND

11.2 0.6 Conv. thermal 32.3 Nuclear SWEDEN Hydro 4.9 Wind DENMARK

SINTEF Energiforskning AS TotalTotal energyenergy consumptionconsumption inin NorwayNorway 19701970 -- 20012001

TWh/year 250

200

150

Natural and other gasses 100 Oil products District heating Electricity Electricity +2.6% p.a. Wood and waste 50 Coal and coke

1970 1972 1974 1976 1978 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000

SINTEF Energiforskning AS AnnualAnnual increaseincrease inin generationgeneration andand consumptionconsumption 19601960 -- 20002000

AverageAverage increase increase in generation TWh/year in generation

3.5 AverageAverage increase increase 3.0 inin consumptionconsumption 2.5

2.0

1.5

1.0

0.5

0 1960-1970 1970-1980 1980-1990 1990-2000

SINTEF Energiforskning AS GenerationGeneration capacitycapacity vs.vs. consumptionconsumption 19761976 -- 20012001

140 Average generation 2002 (119 TWh/year) 120 100 80 Consumption 60 TWh/year 40 20 0 1976 1981 1986 1991 1996 2001

SINTEF Energiforskning AS TRANSESTRANSES WorkPackageWorkPackage organizationorganization (2003)(2003)

WP.03WP.03 StakeholderStakeholder WorkshopsWorkshops

WP.04 WP.05 Energy MIT Scenarios Trade-off Networking Project Management WP.02

WP.06 WP.07 WP.08 WP.09 WP.10 WP.11 WP.01 Building MARKAL Energy Generation Hydrogen PhD Sector Demand Infrastr. PostDoc

SINTEF Energiforskning AS EMPS:EMPS: MMultiulti--AreaArea PPowerower MarketMarket SSimulatorimulator

Example of spot price scenarios

400 Reservoir utilization in EMPS Model 350

20000 300 ElectricityMinimum import to Norway (TWh/year) 25 percentile 250 Median 15000 40 75 percentile 200 Maximum

30 150 10000 GWh Market price(NOK/MWh) 20 100

50 10 5000

0 0 1 21416181101 3 3 6 5 2 7 7 1 6 8 6 7 8 4 7 67 3 6 65 3 8 46 7 8 80 4 3 7 41

Amount (TWh/year) 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 1990 1989 19 1 1 1 1968 1954 19 1 Week1 1975 number1934 1972 1 1 1 1933 1955 1931 1 1 1 1951 1947 19 1 1 1 1970 0 -10 34 38 42 46 50 54 58 62 66 70 74 78 82 86 90 94Eksp 98 Finland 102 0.1 TWh/år SINTEF Energy Research 21 Week Eksport Danmark 0.3 TWh/år -20 Eksport Sverige 5.2 TWh/år Import Finland 0.2 TWh/år Import Danmark 4.3 TWh/år SINTEF Energy Research -30 Import Sverige 14.8 TWh/år3 Hydro year

SINTEF Energiforskning AS 25

SINTEF Energiforskning AS EMPS:EMPS: SubSub systemsystem modelmodel

Storable inflow

Reservoir

Non-storable inflow

Power plant Wind power Thermal pro- production duction units Hydro production

Transmission capacity Firm load Price to other subsystems dependent load

SINTEF Energiforskning AS 2004:2004: OutliningOutlining mainmain scenariosscenarios

SINTEF Energiforskning AS GenerationGeneration CapacityCapacity –– GreenBusGreenBus NordPool area

500

450

400

350

300

250

200

150

Annual Generation (TWh) 100

50

0 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 Hy dro Nuc Fossil Bio Gre Bus Wind CHP+ Imp

SINTEF Energiforskning AS PowerPower pricesprices (excl.(excl. investments)investments) Norway

60

50 ore/kWh 40

30

20

10

0 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 BusUsa GreBus Seq RedC CeH2 Beyo

SINTEF Energiforskning AS COCO2 emissionsemissions Nord Pool Area

100 Annual emissions CO2 90

80 MTonn 70

60

50

40

30

20

10

0 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 BusUsa GreBus Seq RedC CeH2 Beyo

SINTEF Energiforskning AS 2005:2005: MARKALMARKAL simulationssimulations

HYDRO/WIND/SOLAR/WAVE INDUSTRY DEMAND POWER PLANT ELEC. GRID ELEC.

OIL - REFINERY OIL HOUSEHOLD/SERV. CHP DEMAND

NATURAL GAS HEAT GRID

HEAT PLANT BIOMASS TRANSPORT DEMAND

COAL/COKE COAL/COKE OIL/GAS BIOMASS

SINTEF Energiforskning AS StructureStructure ofof thethe NordicNordic modelmodel (Electricity trade in Nordic countries 2003, source: NORDEL)

„ 4 national models (el and heat) linked by electricity grid „ Fossil fuels common for the Nordic market (equal price) „ RES specific for each country „ Major electricity and heat production technologies harmonised „ Model years: 1995 – 2035

SINTEF Energiforskning AS MarkalMarkal:: ElectricityElectricity productionproduction scenariosscenarios

700 OTHER REN 600 BIOMASS

500 WIND NA TURE GA S 400 CO2 CA P NGS

TWh 300 COA L CO2 CA P COA L 200 FOSSILE OTHER NUCLEA R 100 HY DRO 0 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

SINTEF Energiforskning AS 2006: Multiple scenario strategies (MIT/IFE) FromFrom 66 toto 11521152 scenariosscenarios

„ 2 x 3 x 2 x 2 = 24 unique Futures „ Energy Demand Growth (2) „ Fuel Prices (3) „ CO2 Taxes (2) „ European Electricity Prices (2) „ 12 x 2 x 2 = 48 unique Strategies „ Electricity Supply (12) „ Renewables, Hydro, CCS, Nuclear etc „ Non Transportation Heat & Efficiency (2) „ Biomass, End-Use Efficiency „ Alternate Transportation Fuels (2) „ Conventional, Hybrids & Biofuels

„ Total no. of scenarios: 24 x 48 = 1152

SINTEF Energiforskning AS TotalTotal costscosts vsvs emissionsemissions (1152(1152 total)total)

Costs vs Emissions

950000

900000

850000

800000 Obj func 750000 Mill EUR EUR Mill 700000

650000

600000

0 00 0 0 000 000 000 0 000 4000 5 6000 7000000 8000 9000 1000000 10000000 1 CO2 [1000 tonnes]

SINTEF Energiforskning AS WindWind powerpower costscosts vsvs emissionsemissions

Costs vs Emissions

950000

900000

850000

800000 Ref wind 750000 Max wind Mill EUR Mill EUR

700000

650000

600000

0 0 0 0 00 00 00 0 0000 0 00 0 0 00 40000 500000060000007 800000090 0 1 11000 CO2 [1000 tonnes]

SINTEF Energiforskning AS CCSCCS costscosts vs.vs. emissionsemissions

Costs vs Emissions

950000

900000

850000

800000 Costs without CCS 750000 Costs w CCS Mill EUR EUR Mill

700000

650000

600000

0 0 0 00 00 000 00 000 00 000 0 000 0 0 0 000000 400 50 600 70 800 90 10000000 11 CO2 [1000 tonnes]

SINTEF Energiforskning AS TransportTransport

Costs vs Emissions

950000

900000

850000

800000 Ref Transport 750000 Bio and Hybrids Mill EUR

700000

650000

600000

00 00 00 00 00 000 0 0 0 0 0 0000 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 40 50 60 70 80 90 10 11000000 CO2 [1000 tonnes]

SINTEF Energiforskning AS TotalTotal costscosts vsvs emissionsemissions

Costs vs Emissions

950000

900000

850000 Strat base + futures var 800000

R Strat max + futures var Strat var + futures base

Mill EU 750000 Strat var + future max Strat var + future low 700000

650000

600000

0 00 00 0000 00000 000000 000000 000 000 400 500000 6000000 7 8 90 100 110 CO2 [1000 tonnes]

SINTEF Energiforskning AS DemandDemand

Costs vs Emissions

950000

900000

850000

800000 Ref demand High demand 750000

Mill EUR EUR Mill Reduced demand

700000

650000

600000

0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 00 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 00 00 00 0 0 00 0 0 4 5 6000000 7 8000000 9 00 1 11000000 CO2 [1000 tonnes]

SINTEF Energiforskning AS 20082008 -->> (GLUE)(GLUE) // LinkSLinkS LinkingLinking GlobalGlobal andand LocalLocal EnergyEnergy StrategiesStrategies

Joint research program DoE – OED UMCP – NTNU JGCRI/Battelle - SINTEF

SINTEF Energiforskning AS UnderstandingUnderstanding regionalregional impactsimpacts ofof climateclimate targetstargets

WasteWaste BiomassBiomass heatheat HPHP DistrictDistrict heating/coolingheating/cooling

OilOil Solar Industry GasGas Solar Biomass & Biomass Centralized HydroHydro PVPV energy supply DSM/DRDSM/DR ElectricityElectricity

WindWind BiomassBiomass WindWind HPHP CHPCHP

Buildings NaturalNatural gasgas & Transport HydrogenHydrogen

BiomassBiomass

SINTEF Energiforskning AS MainMain objectivesobjectives

„ Find optimal investment strategies in local energy systems from a global perspective but utilizing regional advantages „ Analyze and suggest policy recommendations and instruments supporting a sustainable development of regional energy systems based on regional differences in technology, economy and resources „ Analyze how a given region can contribute to specific emission and climatic targets (e.g. stabilization of atmospheric concentration of CO2 at 550 ppm) in terms of technology „ Analyze how projected climate changes will influence the future development of a regional energy system with increasing share of renewables, both in the demand and supply sectors The project will deliver 4 PhD candidates and 10-15 international publications

SINTEF Energiforskning AS ImproveImprove existingexisting studiesstudies byby

„ including stochastic elements in both supply (wind, hydro, solar etc) and demand (temperature etc) „ considering integrated markets of electricity, gas and emissions quotas „ considering uncertainty and risk „ geographic distribution of investments, resources and markets „ including physical infrastructure of electricity grids, gas networks etc „ analysing and giving recommendations with respect to regional governance and policy instruments „ handling different perspectives of business actors vs. governments; corporate vs. socio-economic?

„ Ref. to IEA Energy Outlook 2006, Stern Report etc.

SINTEF Energiforskning AS EMPSEMPS modelmodel ofof EuropeEurope

Average prices (Weekend / Average / Workday) Consumption and generation Energy flow in Europe Consumption Generation

Scale: French generation: 523 TWh

SINTEF Energy Research 4

SINTEF Energy Research 4

SINTEF Energy Research 4

SINTEF Energiforskning AS MainMain feedbackfeedback loopsloops

SGM/Minicam Atmospheric Composition Climate and Sea Level

Atmospheric Chemistry Climate

Ocean Carbon Ocean · Temperature Cycle ·Sea level

Human Activities Ecosystems

Terrestrial Unmanaged Energy Other Human Carbon Ecosystem System Systems Cycle & Animals

Agriculture, Coastal Crops & Weekly breakdown Livestock & Hydrology System Forestry Forestry and/or adjusted • Energy demand • Capacities GovernanceGovernance Aggregated • Technologies PolicyPolicy instrumentsinstruments Global / Climate level annual data • Market clearing prices (ProSus,(ProSus, UMCP)UMCP) (MWh) • Emissions/Penalties

DecisionDecision supportsupport ’EMPS’’EMPS’ model model Infrastruct.Infrastruct. designdesign MarketsMarkets && (El(El // gasgas // H2)H2) TechnologiesTechnologies (NTNU)(NTNU) Regional / Regional Technology level Weekly ave. (MWh) vs. duration curves (MW)

SINTEF Energiforskning AS TopTop--downdown datadata transfertransfer

SGM/MinicamSGM/Minicam 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045

For each 5-year timestep: • Investments • Energy demand (MWh) • Capacities/Technologies (MWh) • Climate trajectories (?) • temperature? • precipitation? • Quota markets (?) • Emissions / Emission constraints? • 70 climatic years • precipitation • temperatures ’EMPS’’EMPS’ type type modelmodel •• operationaloperational • Marginal production cost • Inter-area transmission •• staticstatic capacities • Generation capacities (MW)

SINTEF Energiforskning AS RegionalRegional analysisanalysis

• 70 climatic years • precipitation • temperatures ’EMPS’’EMPS’ type type modelmodel MW capacity vs. DecisionDecision support/support/ •• operationaloperational InvestmentsInvestments • Marginal production cost MWh generation • Inter-area transmission •• staticstatic (NTNU)(NTNU) capacities • Generation capacities (MW)

For each 5-year time-step, and quantity portfolio; a stochastic outcome per MW sub-area per week: • Energy market clearing price • including curtailment cost • Operation profiles of technologies • Energy demand • Emissions / penalties time • 52-104 weeks

SINTEF Energiforskning AS BridgingBridging ’’engineeringengineering’’ andand ’’policypolicy implementationimplementation

GOVERNANCEGOVERNANCE MODELMODEL IMPACTIMPACT MODELMODEL ¨Classic”¨Classic” social social ¨Classic”¨Classic” engineering engineering modelsmodels sciencescience methodsmethods EMPSEMPS // SGMSGM

PREFERENCEPREFERENCE MODELMODEL AdvancedAdvanced decisiondecision supportsupport methodsmethods

RecommendationsRecommendations forfor local/regionallocal/regional technologytechnology optionsoptions andand policypolicy instrumentsinstruments

SINTEF Energiforskning AS NorwayNorway——AA ReportReport onon TRANSES/TRANSES/LinkSLinkS jointjoint researchresearch projectsprojects

Dr. Bjorn H. Bakken Energy Systems SINTEF Energy Research Trondheim, Norway email: [email protected] http://www.energy.sintef.no

SINTEF Energiforskning AS