Men's Best Shots Poll
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Men’s Best Shots Poll Stephanie Kovalchik is the Senior Data Scientist for the Game Insight Group of Tennis Australia and Vicoria University and the creator of the tennis stats blog On The T (on- the-t.com). The data landscape in tennis isn’t perfect but there is enough out there, thanks in large part to dedicated enthusiasts of the game, that it is possible to develop meaningful statistics about the skills of the best players in the sport. To show how far the sport has and can go analytically, all of my ratings will be based on statistics. A data-driven perspective isn’t a substitute for expert opinion. It’s simply a different angle to the question of ‘who is the best’ that has the advantage of being completely objective and of applying an equal standard to all players. When we think of the ‘best’ in any sport, it usually comes down to the player or team who has had the most success on the biggest stages against the toughest opponents. Taking that same idea and applying it to shots suggests we should judge a shot by its effectiveness against the best players. The GIG team has developed a shot effectiveness stat that does just that. Players with high shot effectiveness are those who have a high probability of getting a clean winner or inducing a forced error with that shot, while keeping the probability of a technical mistake (an unforced error) low. Our effectiveness statistic scores these attributes of a shot in matches when a player goes up against the best, who are the 20 players who have earned the highest GIG Elo Rating in the past 5 years. Shot effectiveness is on a 0 to 100 scale (100 being the best possible) and is based on matches played against the best from 2013 to the present. This is the score my shot ratings will be based on. BEST FOREHAND 1. Roger Federer 2. Juan Martin Del Potro 3. Grigor Dimitrov When it comes to effectiveness, Federer’s forehand ground strokes are as close to perfect as it gets. Against top opponents, Federer has an effectiveness score on the forehand of 99%, making his forehand the overall most consistently lethal in the game. Against top opponents, Federer gets a forehand ground stroke 45% of the time in rallies and 1 of every 6 of those shots wins the point. Juan Martin Del Potro gets the 2nd spot in forehand effectiveness with a score of 95%, while Grigor Dimitrov comes in 3rd with 92%. Del Potro takes a forehand ground stroke at the same frequency of Federer and wins the point with the shot in 1 of every 7 of those shots against the strongest opponents. Dimitrov has a higher frequency of forehand ground strokes against top opponents, getting to that shot 50% of the time, but has the same winning chances with the shot as Del Potro. At the Australian Open, where we have multiple years of tracking data to breakdown players shots in even greater detail, we have found that all three players are some of the best at applying pressure with the forehand, Federer and Del Potro taking 424 milliseconds on average to get the ball back over the net on their forehand while Dimitrov has an average of 432 milliseconds. Del Potro is known for the power of his forehand and that is something that stands out among the three. He has the highest average forehand ground stroke speed of the group, clocking in at an average of 131 KPH. BEST TWO-HANDED BACKHAND 1. Alexander Zverev 2. Rafael Nadal 3. Kei Nishikori Among double-handed backhands, Alexander Zverev’s is a real weapon. Against the best players, Zverev has an effectiveness score of 93% and that is even with playing his backhand the majority of the time (52% of rally shots). And for good reason, as he is nearly equally effective on his backhand ground stroke and his forehand ground stroke, getting a winning shot with 1 of every 14 backhand ground strokes played. Rafael Nadal is the 2nd most effective double-handed backhanded at 91% effectiveness and Kei Nishikori the 3rd spot with 90% effectiveness. Nishikori and Zverev stand out in their ability to apply pressure with the backhand. The average time to net on the backhand at recent Australian Opens has been 474 milliseconds for Nishikori and 477 milliseconds for Zverev. They both clock in some of the highest average speeds on the backhand as well, Zverev having an average speed of 121 KPH and Nishikori an average of 118 KPH. The effectiveness of Nadal’s backhand is less about outright power and more about the heaviness of hist shot, which few who have ever played the game can match. BEST ONE-HANDED BACKHAND 1. Roger Federer 2. Philipp Kohlschreiber 3. Richard Gasquet Federer is the only one-handed backhand in the game that has greater effectiveness against top opponents than the best double-handed backhands. Federer’s overall effectiveness on his backhand is 99%. Much of that effectiveness is attributable to his ability to hit clean winners on the backhand side, having a clean winner rate of 5% against top players, one of the highest in the sport. Philipp Kohlschreiber is the 2nd most effective with a single-handed backhand, with an effectiveness score of 83%, and Richard Gasquet is 3rd with a score of 80%. Like Federer, Kohlschreiber’s backhand stands out for its ability to produce a high rate of clean winners (4%). Gasquet is less lethal than Federer and Kohlschreiber when it comes to outright winners (clean win rate of 3%) but he has the lowest rate of technical errors on this shot among the group (5% frequency of unforced). BEST FIRST SERVE 1. John Isner 2. Ivo Karlovic 3. Nick Kyrgios Against the best players in the sport, John Isner consistently does the best in optimizing the balance between risk and control on the first serve. He has one of the highest mean rate of aces on serve (20%) and high rate of first serve pints in (70%). Ivo Karlovic has the highest ace rate of any server (23%) but is less consistent on first serve than Isner (first serve in 65%). Kyrgios has a lower rate of aces but a small margin (18%) and similar control on the first serve as Karlovic (65%). BEST SECOND SERVE 1. John Isner 2. Roger Federer 3. Ivo Karlovic On the second serve, servers have to balance the wish to win the point outright on the serve versus the risk of a double fault. These three players are the best at finding this balance. When it goes to the second serve, Isner is still able to win a high percentage of points on serve in 3 shots or less (35%), efficiency that reflects the quality of his serve. At the same time, he has one of the lowest rates of double faults against top opponents (average of 2%). Federer and Karlovic are similarly efficient on the second serve against top opponents (average of 25% of second serve points won in 3 shots or less) but Karlovic has somewhat less control (4% double fault rate vs 2.5% for Federer). BEST SERVICE RETURNER 1. Roger Federer 2. Jack Sock 3. Marin Cilic A player with a stronger serve return should not only have a high percentage of return points won, they should also have a high return efficiency, winning more return points in fewer shots. In the past 3 years at Grand Slams against top opponents, Roger Federer’s return efficiency has been 99.8% as he wins an average of 2 return points for every 10 shots taken when receiving. There aren’t many aspects of the game where Jack Sock rivals Roger Federer, but his return efficiency at Grand Slams is one quality of Sock’s game that is on par with Federer. Marin Cilic gets the 3rd spot for having a return efficiency of 95% at Majors. BEST NET GAME (VOLLEYS, OVERHEADS: ONLY INTERESTED IN PLAYERS WHO PLAY SINGLES REGULARLY) 1. Rafael Nadal 2. Roger Federer 3. Matthew Ebden When judging the quality of a player’s net game, we ought to consider how brave a player is to go to net as well as how effective they are there. Compared to other players competing against top players at Grand Slams, Rafael Nadal goes to net frequently, player 1 of every 10 points at net, and has a nearly flawless net game, winning 3 of every 4 net points played. Roger Federer players at net even more frequently, playing 1 of every 7 points at net, and wins 7 of every 10 net points. Aussie Matt Ebden is the most daring of the 3, going to net more than 20% of the time in his matches at majors and is just slightly behind in effectiveness, winning 67% of net points. BEST NET GAME (DOUBLES SPECIALISTS ONLY) 1. Bob Bryan 2. Jean-Julien Rojer 3. Jamie Murray BEST PASSING SHOTS 1. Marin Cilic 2. Roger Federer 3. Rafael Nadal The opportunities for passing shots are rare in today’s game, but Marin Cilic does the most with the opportunities he gets against top opponents. When his opponent goes to net, Cilic is able to hit a passing shot winner or induce an error from his opponent in nearly 1 of every 4 points, giving him an overall passing shot effectiveness score of 99%. Federer wins points with passing shots in 1 of every 5 times his opponent goes to net, giving him an effectiveness score of 93%.