Publications Mail Agreement #40068926 C THIRTY-SECOND YEAR, NO.1768 for conservative-leaning provincial governments duringpandemic,say pollsters Incumbency, ‘cooperation, anda multi-partisan approach’ electoral advantages News Stewart Elgie. executive director Prosperity Institute says Smart really important,’ be carbon will the focus on low- and that’s where the new economy, or it can kickstart the old economy either kickstart ‘Government can W COVID-19 pandemicwillbethe leaders either heading to the polls leaders eitherheading tothepolls in reshaping economy, say top experts in-a-decade’ investment opportunity our leaders’: feds can’t falter on‘once- ‘There needs to bereal honesty from News BY MIKE LAPOINTE BY MIKE LAPOINTE Briefi Policy Health Mental pp. 19-27 Michael Harris nomic fallout from the ongoing nomic falloutfrom theongoing onfronting theimmediate eco- servative-leaning provincial ith anumberofpopular, con- p.13 ng Leader JagmeetSingh,andGreenParliamentaryElizabethMay. Prime MinisterJustinTrudeau, ConservativeLeaderErinO'Toole, BlocQuébécoisLeaderYves-François Blanchet,NDP wave’ islikely toflatten any econom- economists, especiallyasthe ‘second come, according toexpertsand ment intheweeks andmonths to primary focusofthefederal govern- pollsters, andpoliticalinsiders say particularly highapproval numbers, call anearlyelectionwhile riding election win, orfacingpressureto in thenearfuture, freshoffarecent HOH p.2 LeMay C Rose ANADA p.10 ’ S P OLITICS major country situation staringpolicy-makers economy inthesummer. the reopeningofmajorparts ic growth Canadahasseenfollowing to judgetheirhandling ofthecrisis. demic andarepreparedforvoters this pointintheCOVID-19 pan- are at anadvantage politicallyat incumbent provincial governments But even withableakfi
AND Germany’s Germany’s right now G possibly possibly OVERNMENT the best the best Gwynne DyerG p.15 w y The HillTimes photographsbyAndrewMeade scal quite quite N EWSPAPER investments inthelow-carbon, face, withoutmakingtargeted and Canadianssquarelyinthe vative Party andrecentpolling at thehelmoffederal Conser- But withanew leaderfreshly good that’s back, and Bob Rae’s Doug Rochep.14 Continued onpage 17 Continued onpage4 MONDAY, OCTOBER 5,2020$5.00 C T Times, Jay Hill, theinterimleader seats totheNDP orLiberals. party’s leadersays won’t risklosing gins in2019, inanoffensive that the Conservatives won withwidemar- ridings inthenextelectionthat the News margins’ bywon very wide Conservatives election, ‘where Canada in the next ridings in Western Conservative strongtarget 49 Maverick Party to MLA Sims MLA Sims NDP B.C.provincial very diff ‘very weird andit’s during COVID-19 is Campaigning News hands, and gettingclosetopeople. from goingdoorknocking, shaking requirements now barpoliticians ers inanera when socialdistancing new toolsofengagementwithvot- is over, andpoliticiansshouldlearn the “new normal” untilthepandemic different” experience, butit’salso BY ABBAS RANA BY ABBAS BY ABBAS RANA BY ABBAS In aninterview withThe Hill erick Party willtry totarget49 he upstartright-of-centreMav- COVID-19 isa “very weird and ampaigning inthemidstof erent,’ says Continued onpage 16 Continued onpage6 2 MONDAY, OCTOBER 5, 2020 | THE HILL TIMES
Green agreed: “For the record the Doritos always say, remember Arthur, tell our cus- and Crunchie Bars would defi nitely have to tomers and our employees that we could go in our Collective Agreement.” not do it without them and always thank MPs being hit with the munchies them for the business.” while on the job isn’t unheard of; snack Mr. Savoie, one of the country’s leading Heard on the Hill afi cionados and on-the-run Hill report- experts on the machinery of government, ers will remember the great controversy holds the Canada Research Chair in Public that erupted when Prime Minister Justin Administration and Governance at the by Palak Mangat Trudeau admitted to eating a chocolate bar Université de Moncton and has written 47 last year, while taking part in a marathon books, including Federal-Provincial Col- voting session in January 2019 and being laboration: The Canada-New Brunswick called out by Conservative MP Scott Reid. General Development Agreement; Break- Mr. Reid mistakenly called it at bagel at the ing the Bargain: Public Servants, Ministers, Crunchie bar and time. and Parliament; Governing From the Cen- tre: The Concentration of Power in Cana- Justin Ling at Ottawa dian Politics; Thatcher, Reagan, Mulroney: In Search of a New Bureaucracy; What Doritos: NDP MP Green International Writers’ Festival Is Government Good At? A Canadian Journalist Justin Ling will talk about Answer; Visiting Grandchildren: Economic his new book, Missing From the Village: Development in the Maritimes; Whatever shares how he got by The Story of Serial Killer Bruce McArthur, Happened to the Music Teacher? How Gov- the Search for Justice, and the System ernment Decides and Why; Democracy in That Failed Toronto’s Queer Community, Canada: The Disintegration of Our Institu- on Monday, Oct. 5. The live online event tions; Harrison McCain: Single-Minded during Wednesday’s early will be hosted by Matthew Pearson and Purpose; Looking for Bootstraps: Econom- runs 7:30 p.m.-8:30 p.m. Those interested ic Development in the Maritimes; and The morning House vote can register at Eventbrite. Politics of Public Spending in Canada. Savoie’s new book highlights HOC staff gets shoutout from MP ‘homegrown business success’ The inevitable perils of a hybrid vir- NDP MP Matthew Don Savoie has a new book out, tual House led one MP to give a special Green, pictured at “Thanks for Conservative a House Access the Busi- MP Michelle to Information, ness”: K.C. Rempel Garner, Privacy, and Irving, Arthur pictured in Ethics Committee Irving, and Ottawa on meeting on July the Story of Sept. 9, 2020, 23, 2020, was Irving Oil , paid thanks bag deep in some published to a House Doritos last week, by Nimbus IT staffer last thanks to a early Publishing. week. The morning vote on In his Hill Times the Liberals' latest 342-page photograph by pandemic-aid book, Mr. Andrew Meade bill. The Hill Times Savoie, the photograph by 2016 Donner Andrew Meade Prize-win- shoutout to a House of Commons IT whiz ning author last week, delivered in true parliamentary of What fashion. “Thanks For The Business”: Is Govern- “Mr. Speaker, let the record show that pparently, politicians love their Doritos, which have also earned a nod K.C. Irving, Arthur Irving, ment Good Joshua Lind from House of Commons IT Doritos, the fl avoured tortilla chips from Yukon Liberal Premier Sandy Silver and the Story of Irving Oil, At, Services, king of his craft and fi rst of his A by Donald Savoie, is out now. takes invented in a Disneyland restaurant in in the past, weren’t the only snack on Mr. a detailed line, has, since March, repeatedly saved the 1960s, and thanks to a 3 a.m. House of Green’s mind: “the next vote isn’t until Photograph courtesy of Nimbus my life through various forms of electronic Publishing look at the Commons vote Wednesday night on the 2:25am and I’m about to crush a Crunchie famous New ensorcellement and I thank him for it,” federal government’s latest pandemic-aid Bar as I eat my emotions,” he added. Brunswick Irving family, business tycoons tweeted Conservative MP Michelle Rempel bill, Hill watchers got a taste of where NDP Conservative MP James Cumming opted Arthur Irving and K.C. Irving and the story Garner, who recently got handed the hefty MP Matthew Green lands on the great for some sea salt and malt vinegar fl avoured of Irving Oil. health critic role in Conservative Leader Doritos debate. chips, courtesy of Ms. Vickie’s, while Mr. The biography traces the controversial Erin O’Toole’s cabinet. No stranger to when hunger strikes, Green’s NDP colleague, Mumilaaq Qa- Irving family’s roots back to Scotland and The MP followed her remarks with Mr. Green tweeted at around 1 a.m. that, qqaq, said she was coping with “anti tox tea looks at Irving Oil’s success, “born in Bouc- jokes about her camera not working, “after 8 weeks of *really* watching what and yogurt/mixed nuts/fruit in front of me. touche and grown from Saint John, New scrambling to get in order for late-night and how much I eat … this late night HoC Healthy foods for healthy thoughts fam.” One Brunswick, and which now operates Cana- meetings, and memories of the good ol’ voting has me all up in the Doritos.” MPs user chimed in with some tasteful advice for da’s largest refi nery, along with more than days of 2005, “the last time I did any sort of hunkered down overnight on Sept. 29 to politicos and journalists, alike: “My friend, a thousand gas stations spanning Eastern IT training.” debate a massive government Bill C-4, that I’m going to paraphrase what my diabetes Canada, New England, and Ireland.” “In short, Joshua, you and every House of was unanimously passed at 3 a.m., mark- dietician told me yesterday: do your best but Mr. Savoie says he wrote the book for Commons IT person is the best,” she wrote. ing the fi rst test of confi dence the Liberals approach your health holistically—if your two reasons: “First, as a Bouctouche na- After being tagged by a colleague on passed in the new session. The bill, which mental health needs it, eat the chocolate.” tive, I have always been fascinated with the post, Mr. Lind joked that “this is what replaces the $500-a-week Canada Emer- Sonia Theroux, a co-executive direc- K.C. Irving’s accomplishments. … Second, happens when you represent satisfaction.” gency Response Benefi t, authorizes new tor with LeadNow, added that “someone I want to see more Maritimers celebrate According to his LinkedIn, Mr. Lind has benefi ts for the jobless and underemployed should unionize that place. Those are homegrown business success… I leave the Continued on page 30 by the COVID-19 pandemic. medieval working conditions,” to which Mr. last word to Arthur Irving, ‘My dad would
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cially because of the next phase country’s economy. which we’re going to hit in three “If you think about Canada’s ‘There needs to be real to six months. economic future, our economic “Immediately, the challenge past was based on two pil- we face is combatting COVID-19 lars—the resource sector and and dealing with those who are manufacturing,” said Mr. Drum- honesty from our leaders’: economically affected by the mond, who served as assistant COVID-induced slowdown,” said deputy minister of fi scal policy Mr. Elgie in an interview on and economic analysis while Oct. 1. “We’re deliberately cool- in the public service as well as feds can’t falter on ‘once- ing large parts of the economy senior vice president and chief down, and we’ve got to deal economist for TD Bank from with income support by people 2000 to 2010. “With the resource who are affected by cooling the sector, one hates to extrapolate a in-a-decade’ investment economy down. That’s people current situation into the future, in face-to-face workplaces— but it’s been down in the dumps service, retail, tourism, restau- since 2014.” rants—there are big parts of “And in a very short period of opportunity in re-shaping the economy that have taken a time, discussion of peak oil sup- big hit, because of the COVID ply has been replaced by discus- restrictions and the ability of sion of peak oil demand,” said largely women to participate in Prof. Drummond. “It will come economy, say experts the workforce as they are home back in some fashion, but it’s dealing with kids.” hard to imagine that being the pil- Given this, we’re still in the lar of the economy it has been in policy-makers with an unprec- “We have seen a really quick income support phase, said Mr. the past. And employment in our ‘Government can edented avenue to show leader- recovery since the closures that Elgie, and not in the economic manufacturing sector is half the ship in green energy investments we saw in March and April,” said recovery phase quite yet. proportion of the total economy either kickstart the and in transforming the economy, Mr. Antunes. “As we started to We’ve cooled things down, that it was 20 years ago.” Prof. Homer-Dixon said “abso- re-open the economy, a lot of we’re trying to help business and “So I think you can ask the old economy or it lutely it is” and that this moment the sectors that we intentionally households stay afl oat as we cool question, where does the growth can kickstart the new represents a “high leverage inter- shut down, which was a policy down,” said Mr. Elgie. “During that come from? And I think that vention point.” decision, they re-opened, and of phase, there is a limited amount draws your eye to how clean [in- economy, and that’s “This is basically where you course we got ‘unprecedented that you can do to promote low dustry] growth is a good thing to can pull a lever, push a button, growth.’” carbon growth.” have for its own sake, but maybe where the focus on turn a screw, and produce very “But when you’re coming off “But as we begin to get COVID it’s the only thing. These histori- substantial gains in the way so- rock bottom, it’s really not that more under control, and we can cal pillars are probably not going low-carbon will be cieties are working and the path- impressive really.” look to heating the economy to carry the day into the future,” really important,’ way that they’re going along on According to recent data from back up again, there is inevitably said Mr. Drummond. “I think if something like the green energy Statistics Canada, the country going to be the need for the kind you look at it from an industrial says Smart Prosperity transition, where we can produce was at a 6 per cent gap from of economic stimulus that there structure perspective and look at a real shift.” where we were in February, with always is coming out of an eco- where jobs and growth are going Institute executive “We’re looking for those high estimates that we may see an- nomic downturn,” said Mr. Elgie. to come in the future, it bears leverage intervention points,” said other 1 per cent growth in August. “When that time comes, govern- looking at that sector from that director Stewart Elgie. Prof. Homer-Dixon. “Prior to the “In other words, we’re still ment can either kickstart the old perspective, never even mind the pandemic, it was almost as if ev- in a recession, that is one of the economy or it can kickstart the benefi ts for the environment.” erything was locked up and very deepest, where we’re 5 per cent new economy, and that’s where Former parliamentary budget Continued from page 1 the focus on low-carbon will be offi cer Kevin Page told The Hill rigid, and then with the pandemic below where we in February, this Times green-energy economy and sup- and the shock that occurred, all of is a huge recession even with really important.” that he agrees with the porting the continued growth of the pieces are moving simultane- the recovery we’ve had,” said Mr. Describing the next phase of Conference Board on the short- its associated workforce whenev- ously.” Antunes. investment as a “once-in-a-decade” term economic outlook. er the smoke clears, Canada risks “We don’t actually know how The Conference Board of opportunity, Mr. Elgie said we’re “Policy-makers will likely face being left behind once the world they’re going to reconfi gure Canada has been very open to not going to have that kind of a signifi cantly slowing in the truly begins rebuilding from the themselves, how they are going government support through money to spend on the economy economic recovery in the fourth global crisis that’s rocked the to come back together, but it’s al- this crisis period, according to again for another fi ve to ten years. quarter. As the recent PBO report global economy and changed most certain the public will be put Mr. Antunes, who also said he “You want to be generating highlighted, it could be 2022 when business and industry forever. back together to create a picture recognized that “all bets are on” the jobs and economic growth we see real output return to pre For that to happen, Canada that’s quite different from what following the support of every that we’re going to have in fi ve to COVID-19 levels assuming we will need strong, honest leader- we had before,” said Prof. Homer- political party for continued sup- ten years, you don’t to be put- are months away from vaccina- ship, according to one of Cana- Dixon. “We don’t know what port for households through this ting a bunch of money into stuff tion,” said Mr. Page in a written da’s leading public intellectuals that’s going to look like, so there period which will likely last until that’s going to become outdated statement. Thomas Homer-Dixon. is a real opportunity for changing the summer of next year. in a few years,” said Mr. Elgie. Mr. Page, who now teaches “Canada faces an enormous how those pieces come together “It could be even longer,” said “Regardless of how much you at the University of Ottawa, said challenge here, and I think in and re-confi guring things within Mr. Antunes. “The reason the care about climate change, I think that in recent discussions with terms of leadership, there needs our economy.” government can keep stimulus this is smart economics, it isn’t his students on the topic, they to be real honesty from our lead- spending is that there is absolute- just smart environmental policy, were “strongly in favour of public ers,” said Prof. Homer-Dixon in ly no sentiment that this can be in it’s smart economic and fi nancial investments in green energy to an interview with The Hill Times Economic recovery any way infl ationary, because the policy.” support growth and employment.” Virtually every major business “From their perspective (next on Oct. 1, following the recent likely to ‘fl atten, if not economy is so hard hit that the release of his book Command- demand for things is so low.” leader and economic think-tank generation of leaders), the [Eu- ing Hope: The Power We Have to stall, between now and But in terms of medium-term around the world agrees we are ropean Union] is showing us the Renew a World in Peril. moving to a low carbon future. path forward: green and digital,” mid-2021, according to risks, the issue surrounds a build- “Honest leadership—and this up of debt that is substantive and “They’ll debate the pace of that said Mr. Page. “Canada must is part of what I would call honest Conference Board will bring us back to debt levels change, but no one debates the keep pace or risk falling behind hope—requires our leaders to The Conference Board of that we were in during the mid direction of the change, and the both in respect to our interna- be very clear about the need to Canada forecasted that although 1990s. world is moving to a low-carbon tional climate change commit- restructure our economy in a way Canada’s economy has “bounced “And that’s where we had all future, said Mr. Elgie. “There will ments and our global competitive that’s as just and as fair as possible, back in recent months following of that fi scal restraint that we had be a fundamental shift in our en- standing.” especially for those groups who are the economic plunge sparked to impose at one point, because ergy systems that will affect every “The trade-offs are real—fu- going to be hit very hard,” he said. by the pandemic shutdowns in the debt fi nancing costs were sector of the economy, from agri- ture vs. past energy systems. Prof. Homer-Dixon, who now March and April,” according to a getting out of control,” said Mr. culture to resources to manufac- However, there are signifi cant leads the recently-established Sept. 30 press release, “the pace Antunes. turing to technology, and we’ve current impacts already in output Cascade Institute, whose mandate of recovery is expected to peter got to get our economy ready to and job impacts because of low is to examine the full range of out over the autumn and winter compete in that future.” oil prices,” said Mr. Page. “Prices humanity’s converging envi- as the arrival of colder weather, ‘Inevitable’ need for are expected to remain weak ronmental, economic, political, coupled with a rise in the number economic stimulus ‘Where does the growth which will naturally depress pri- technological, and health crises, of COVID-19 cases, further dis- vate investment.” acknowledged this is a exceed- rupts Canada’s economic activity.” coming out of an come from?’ Transition—change—is expen- ingly diffi cult environment for In a subsequent interview with economic downturn Don Drummond, professor at sive, said Mr. Page. leaders—and a tough environ- The Hill Times, Pedro Antunes, Stewart Elgie, executive chair the School of Policy Studies at “If we are going to use defi cit ment in which to give people chief economist at the Conference of the Smart Prosperity Institute, Queen’s University and involved fi nance, we should use it wisely to hope—as most don’t want to hear Board of Canada, said although a national research network and with the C.D. Howe Institute, ensure there are real investments we may not ever return to the Canada is still seeing economic policy think tank based at the told The Hill Times it’s hard to to go along with the debt to help world we knew before. growth following the re-opening University of Ottawa, told The imagine Canada’s resource and the next generation.” But when asked if the CO- of the economy in the summer, Hill Times that there’s an immedi- manufacturing sectors will return [email protected] VID-19 pandemic has provided growth is indeed declining. ate short-term challenge, espe- to their earlier prominence in this The Hill Times THE HILL TIMES | MONDAY, OCTOBER 5, 2020 5 Opinion
A Shell Oil gas station near the interchange of Why does Shell pay oil and California State Route 46 and Interstate 5 near Lost Hills, Calif. CAPP has supported gas lobby to do its anti- developing low-carbon technology and selling natural gas, but it has climate action dirty work? been opposed to a carbon tax and hasn’t offered a complete this be true when Shell says in its Industry endorsement of the CAPP has proven unwilling Associations Review Update that it gives Paris Climate accord. to adapt to the realities of between $500 and $1-million to the Cana- Photograph courtesy of dian Association of Petroleum Producers Wikimedia Commons climate change or address each year, which consistently tries to eat climate policy for lunch? A fact underscored recently when a it is for Shell to restore a diminished public the growing fi nancial risks In 2019, Shell published its Industry leaked memo to eight members of the fed- trust and strengthen social licence. Why Association Climate Review, in which it eral cabinet during the COVID-19 crisis then does Shell not act on the substantial for those companies that committed to reviewing industry associa- called for the government to kill or delay evidence that continued membership in tion memberships based on alignment with a myriad of climate actions, and even to CAPP undermines climate solutions in fail to embrace climate Shell’s climate-related policy positions. The gift CAPP a delay in meeting its require- Canada and Shell’s reputation as a respon- ambition. climate-related policy positions outlined ment to publicly report its own regressive sible and forward-thinking company? Shell are described as support for: the goal of lobbying. has told us that, despite all the evidence of the Paris Agreement on climate change; Despite CAPP’s actions, all Shell has CAPP’s aggressive anti-climate political government-led carbon pricing mecha- done is acknowledge “misalignment” activity, it has no current plans to leave the nisms; policy frameworks for low-carbon with CAPP’s view on carbon pricing and association. technologies; and the role of natural gas in support for the Paris Agreement. But it Some might say that it is certainly a the energy system. is still writing cheques. Shell tells the convenient arrangement. Shell gets to But how is it that Shell continues its public that, rather than withdrawing from speak publicly in generalities about sup- CAPP membership when CAPP fi ghts CAPP, they are continuing to engage with port for climate action, and then unleash against a carbon tax, and relies on projec- the association in the interest of seeking their well-paid attack dog any time a tions of continued growth in oil produc- improvement and alignment. However, government tries to actually implement the tion, which would almost certainly lead to the evidence shows that CAPP is mak- laws and policies that would make these an increase in emissions from Canada’s ing no change, and, in fact, is deepening commitments real. Tim Gray largest-emitting sector? its dangerous anti-climate action efforts. If Shell wants to avoid accusations of hy- Opinion In fact, our recent research report, the CAPP has proven unwilling to adapt to pocrisy and convince the public—and decision- Biggest Barrier to Climate Action: the Oil the realities of climate change or address makers—that its rhetoric will be matched and Gas Lobby, shows how CAPP pursues the growing fi nancial risks for those by action, it needs to put its money where its oyal Dutch Shell is the world’s second- deeply regressive actions and has actively companies that fail to embrace climate mouth is. Shell should immediately and pub- Rlargest oil and gas company and likes sought to prevent, dilute, or delay many ambition. licly withdraw its membership in the Canadian to assure its investors, regulators, the of the effective climate policies at the Royal Dutch Shell global CEO Ben van Association of Petroleum Producers. media, and the public that it is making Canadian federal and provincial levels. Beurden has also been a vocal public advo- Tim Gray is the executive director of strides towards addressing the serious (The report is available on Environmental cate for transparency and ethical corporate Environmental Defence. threats posed by climate change. But can Defence’s website.) behaviour, acknowledging how important The Hill Times
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