Alex Breese CFA, UK Equity Fund Manager Marketing Material for Professional Investors Or Advisers Only
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Schroder UK Equity Fund Alex Breese CFA, UK Equity Fund Manager Marketing material for professional investors or advisers only. May 2019 UK Specialist Equity Centralised research, risk, reporting, trading functions Pan European Product Team 8 Sector Analysts1 14 Alex Breese, CFA Schroder UK Equity Fund Manager Fund Manager ESG Specialists Assistants 4 Tom Grady – UK Equity Analyst, CFA, ACA 15 Risk Analysts 4 Equity Traders 6 Boutique structure supported by extensive internal resource Source: Schroders, as at 31 March 2019. 1Includes two Global Analysts with full global sector coverage that make a significant contribution to UK and European equity portfolios. 1 Fund facts, risk framework and philosophy Schroder UK Equity Fund To identify out of favour or misunderstood companies that have scope for positive change thereby Philosophy realising the valuation anomaly over the next 3–5 years Schroder UK Equity Fund Benchmark FTSE All-Share Index Assets under management £546m Typical number of stocks >35 Maximum stock weight 5% active position Maximum sector weight +/- 20% Market capitalisation Multi-cap Investment time horizon 3 years + Turnover (12 months) 21.4% High conviction actively managed fund Source: Schroders, as at 31 March 2019 (except assets as at 28 February 2019). Turnover calculated as lesser of purchases and sales divided by average market value over 12 months. 2 Cumulative performance – Alex Breese Performance versus benchmark and peer group Cumulative performance, January 2007 to 31 March 2019 % (Total returns, re-based to zero) 140 120 100 80 60 40 20 0 -20 -40 -60 Jan 07 Jan 08 Jan 09 Jan 10 Jan 11 Jan 12 Jan 13 Jan 14 Jan 15 Jan 16 Jan 17 Jan 18 Jan 19 Cumulative excess return vs. FTSE Neptune UK opportunities Manager's career break¹ Representative UK Equity strategy FTSE All Share IA UK All Companies Consistent process aiming to deliver strong compounding returns for the long-term investor Past performance is not a guide to future performance and may not be repeated. The value of investments and the income from them may go down as well as up and investors may not get back the amounts originally invested. Source: Morningstar, Schroders, net of fees, bid to bid with net income reinvested GBP, 31 December 2006 to 31 March 2019. 1Dashed line indicates manager’s career break, during which time we have used the average IA UK Equity manager return. 3 Performance Periods to 31 March 2019 1 year 3 years 5 years 10 years Since manager In GBP p.a. % p.a. % p.a. % p.a. % p.a. %3 Schroder UK Equity Fund Z Acc 2.6 6.7 4.8 12.0 5.6 FTSE All-Share Index (TR) 6.4 9.5 6.1 11.1 6.2 Sector average1 2.8 7.6 5.4 11.8 6.3 Quartile1 3 3 3 2 3 1 year 3 years 5 years 10 years Since manager In GBP p.a. % p.a. % p.a. % p.a. % p.a. %3 Schroder ISF UK Equity Z Acc 2.7 6.6 4.7 11.5 5.5 FTSE All-Share Index (TR) 6.4 9.5 6.1 11.1 6.2 Sector average2 2.0 6.9 4.0 10.2 4.9 Quartile2 4 3 3 1 3 Past performance is not a guide to future performance and may not be repeated. The value of investments and the income from them may go down as well as up and investors may not get back the amounts originally invested. Source: Morningstar, net of fees, bid to bid with net income reinvested GBP, Z Acc units. 1Sector is IA UK All Companies Sector, sector average and rankings shown for Z Acc units. 2Sector is UK Large-Cap Blend Equity – offshore territories, sector average and quartile ranking shown for A Acc units. 3Alex Breese has managed the funds since 16 July 2013. 4 Calendar year performance Risk factors 2018 2017 2016 2015 2014 Schroder UK Equity Fund Z Acc -7.8 7.6 13.0 2.8 2.6 Schroder ISF UK Equity Z Acc -8.5 7.9 13.3 2.8 2.6 FTSE All-Share Index (TR) -9.5 13.1 16.8 1.0 1.2 Schroder UK Equity Fund – Risk Factors: Funds that invest solely in the companies of one country or region can carry more risk than funds spread over a number of countries or regions. The fund can be exposed to different currencies. Changes in foreign exchange rates could create losses. Equity prices fluctuate daily, based on many factors including general, economic, industry or company news. Investments in smaller companies can be less liquid than investments in larger companies and price swings may therefore be greater than in larger company funds. In difficult market conditions, the fund may not be able to sell a security for full value or at all. This could affect performance and could cause the fund to defer or suspend redemptions of its shares. Failures at service providers could lead to disruptions of fund operations or losses. Schroder ISF UK Equity – Risk Factors: The capital is not guaranteed. The fund will not hedge its market risk in a down cycle. The value of the fund will move similarly to the markets. Past performance is not a guide to future performance and may not be repeated. The value of investments and the income from them may go down as well as up and investors may not get back the amounts originally invested. Source: Morningstar, net of fees, bid to bid with net income reinvested GBP, Z Acc units 5 Schroder UK Equity Fund Process Blueprint for stock selection Investment process Identify Explore Idea upside downside Portfolio generation opportunity protection – Unloved or – Management – Franchise quality – Typically 35–50 misunderstood turnaround – Balance sheet stocks companies – Unrecognised – Valuation – Target prices – Value and quality growth – Cash conversion screens – Cyclical recovery – Internal research – Management alignment Hunting for asymmetric risk Source: Schroders. 7 Lifecycle of a position in the fund Can market perception change for the better? Negative sentiment Market recognising positive change Positive sentiment (Sold) Buy initial position Build position Reduce/Sell A diversified portfolio with no fixed style + long-term investment horizon Source: Schroders as at 31 March 2019. Stocks shown are for illustrative purposes only and should not be viewed as a recommendation to buy or sell. 8 Portfolio analysis Life cycle stages and stock classification Stage 3 Stage 1 Cash Reduce/sell Initiate position Cash 13 6% (6%) companies 6 (15%) Unrecognised companies growth (14%) 17% 34% Cyclical recovery 22 companies 43% (65%) Management turnaround Stage 2 Build position Substantial positive change yet to come through Source: Schroders, as at 28 February 2019. 9 Stock example Management turnaround - stage 1 Easy to hate WPP relative to FTSE All-Share - Perceived FANG domination of the digital world 160 - Management issues - FMCG spend under zero-based budgeting pressure 140 New management, new client-centric approach 120 - Addressing key areas of underperformance - Investing in new technology backbone 100 - Award winning global leading franchise Cash generative, improving balance sheet and low valuation 80 - Expectations have been reset and valuation is low 60 - Balance sheet strengthened with disposals (ongoing) - Early signs of stabilisation 40 May 14 May 15 May 16 May 17 May 18 May 19 Quality business trading at substantial discount to intrinsic value For illustrative purposes only and should not be viewed as a recommendation to buy or sell Source: Schroders, Thomson DataStream, 8 May 2014 to 8 May 2019, rebased to 100, 100 = 31 December 2013 10 Stock example Cyclical recovery – stage 2 Structural fears overdone… BP – North American shale 160 100,000 – Electric vehicles 90,000 140 – Macondo cash drag + lower oil price led to dividend 80,000 cut concerns 120 70,000 100 … but supply response has been significant … 60,000 – Investment hiatus from oil majors 80 50,000 – Existing mature oil field decline rates c. 6% p.a. 40,000 60 … and BP is a better business 30,000 40 – Macondo pay-outs largely complete 20,000 20 – Significant cost reduction + use of technology driving down 10,000 breakeven oil price to c. $40 per barrel 0 0 – 6% dividend yield 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 BP relative to FTSE All-Share index BP share price total return BP is now a simpler, stronger business with significant FCF growth potential Securities shown are for illustrative purposes only and should not be viewed as a recommendation to buy or sell. Source: Schroders, Thomson DataStream Eikon, 1 January 2008 to 31 March 2019. 11 Stock example Unrecognised growth – stage 3 (sold) Investment case clouded by short-term issues… Coats – Large pension deficit and tPR investigation 180 1,000 – Australia/New Zealand de-listing 160 900 … but great core business with strong long-term growth 140 800 prospects… 700 120 – Global leader (3x size largest competitor) in industrial threads 600 100 – Innovation driving faster growth in performance materials 500 80 – Global manufacturing footprint fit for purpose 400 60 … and significant downside protection 300 – Cash on balance sheet broadly offset pension deficit 40 200 – Bought on adj. EV/EBITDA multiple <4x and PE 6x 20 100 0 0 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 Coats Group relative to FTSE All-Share index Coats Group share price total return Pension issue resolved driving valuation re-rating Securities shown are for illustrative purposes only and should not be viewed as a recommendation to buy or sell. Source: Schroders, Thomson DataStream Eikon, 1 January 2008 to 31 March 2019. 12 Schroder UK Equity Fund Activity and fund positioning Portfolio activity last 12 months Recycling profits from portfolio winners into unloved value opportunities Buy Significant additions Add Reduce Significant reductions Sell Process in action – disciplined capital allocation Securities shown are for illustrative purposes only and should not be viewed as a recommendation to buy or sell.