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Population in IPCC Scenarios June 2009 Projecting Population, Projecting Climate Change Population in IPCC Scenarios Malea Hoepf Young Kathleen Mogelgaard Karen Hardee PAI WORKING PAPER WP09-02 POPULATION ACTION INTERNATIONAL uses research and advocacy to improve access to family planning and reproductive health care across the world so women and families can prosper and live in balance with the earth. By ensuring couples are able to determine the size of their families, poverty and the depletion of natural resources are reduced, improving the lives of millions across the world. 2 Projecting Population, Projecting Climate Change Population in IPCC Scenarios PAI WORKING PAPER WP09-02 3 INTRODUCTION While population is widely recognized as one of the driving forces behind the growth of greenhouse gas emissions, this paper shows that it is not adequately accounted for in the emissions scenarios produced in the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). The paper examines the assumptions about fertility, mortality and migration that are built into the low, medium and high variations of the population projections used in scenarios of emissions growth. The SRES shows the implications of changes in population size on emissions, but fails to account for other demographic trends such as urbanization, age structure, and household composition. As a result, the SRES likely underestimates demographic impacts on emissions growth. Furthermore, the fertility decline assumptions contained in population projections in the SRES may be over-emphasized given recent declines in political and financial support for policies strongly tied to fertility decline, such as education and equality for women and access to reproductive health and family planning services. The paper concludes that a deeper and more nuanced understanding of the emissions implications of population size, age structure, household size, and urbanization should be incorporated into climate change scenarios that provide the basis for policy decision-making and strategy development for climate change mitigation and adaptation. 4 “By 2100, the world will have changed at which demographic factors underlie the Scientists generally in ways difficult to imagine—as dif- climate science community’s projections of accept that population ficult as it would have been at the end future climate change. size influences global GHG of the 19th century to imagine the The paper describes the devel- changes of the 100 years since.” The emissions, although the role opment of the IPCC’s scenarios, Special Report on Emissions Scenarios of demographics is complex explores the population projec- (Naki´cenovi´c et al. 2000) tions that were used, and explains the and involves significant Climate change is one of the most serious assumptions behind those projections. uncertainty. challenges human society will confront in The paper concludes that the as- the coming decades, and throughout the sumptions made about falling fertility course of the next century. Human produc- and slowed population growth may tion of greenhouse gas emissions (GHGs), be over-emphasized, and that by not largely through the burning of fossil fuels, is taking into account important demo- expected to warm the earth’s surface. This graphic variables beyond population will lead to rising sea levels, changes in pat- size, the scenarios have underestimat- terns of precipitation, heat waves, drought, ed potential demographic impacts on flooding, and increasingly damaging storm greenhouse gas emissions growth. surges. All of these have potentially severe Understanding the strengths and weak- consequences for both humans and ecosys- nesses of the SRES can help shed light on tems. strategies for effectively addressing climate The full range of climate change impacts change, as its scenarios have been used over the course of the next century is dif- for much of the major climate research up ficult to ascertain, both because of uncer- to the present, the results of which have tainty surrounding how the earth’s complex been and will continue to be widely used by physical and environmental systems will policymakers. The IPCC’s next assessment, change, and how much total emissions will due in 2014, will employ a new process of grow. Changes in emissions and subsequent scenario development, and this paper briefly environmental impacts will be affected by fu- describes that process, now in its incipient ture development patterns around the world. stages. Because all population projections The climate science community attempts used in the SRES include in their assump- to understand the range of uncertainty tions large declines in fertility over the next of climate change impacts by developing century, The paper concludes by addressing scenarios–such as those included in the In- the role population policies might play in tergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s the context of comprehensive solutions to (IPCC) Special Report on Emissions Scenari- climate change. os (SRES)–exploring the range of factors that THE IPCC AND ITS influence emissions. These scenarios are ASSESSMENT REportS: then used to drive climate models that show DEVELOPMENT AND USE a range of projected change and impacts. “This report reinforces our under- Scientists generally accept that population standing that the main driving forces size influences global GHG emissions, al- of future greenhouse gas trajectories though the role of demographics is complex will continue to be demographic and involves significant uncertainty. This change, social and economic devel- paper identifies important points opment, and the rate and direction 5 of technological change.” The Spe- tion of the 1992 United Nations Framework cial Report on Emissions Scenarios Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), (Naki´cenovi´c et al. 2000) the treaty that provides the current policy framework for addressing climate change. In the late 1980s, the UN’s World Meteoro- The First Assessment Report also identified logical Organization and the United Na- gaps in understanding and future research tions Environmental Program established needs, and it underlined the need for reports the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate geared towards policymakers to bridge the Change (IPCC). It was created to assess and gap between the policy and climate sci- synthesize the state of scientific thinking ence communities. The Second Assessment on human-induced climate change. Ini- Report, published in 1995, provided input tially tasked with gathering climate change for the negotiations of the Kyoto Protocol evidence into its First Assessment Report, in 1997. The Kyoto Protocol is an addition to published in 1990, the IPCC remains the key the UNFCCC treaty, and is a legally bind- organization in coordinating research efforts ing agreement to reduce GHG emissions and compiling results, as well as translating in industrialized countries. The gathered re- evidence for non-scientific communities, search stated that “the balance of evidence particularly policymakers. Today, the IPCC’s suggests a discernible human influence on assessment process involves over 2,500 global climate,” a finding that was further scientists from over 150 countries, with the enforced in the Third Assessment Report majority drawn from the natural sciences. published in 2001 (IPCC 1995, IPCC 2001). The IPCC has three standing working groups that contribute reports to the IPCC’s periodic The Fourth Assessment Report was released assessments: in 2007. In addition to providing stronger scientific evidence that climate change is n Working Group I assesses the physical occurring and that it is caused by human science of climate systems and climate activities, the report also included a section change and produces the report, The entitled “Historical Overview of Climate Physical Basis for Climate Change; Change Science,” which stated that in recent n Working Group II assesses the vulnerability decades research in climate change has of societies and natural systems to climate accelerated dramatically and developed new change impacts and produces the report, methodology and tools such as complex Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability modeling. While climate change science n Working Group III assesses options to literature had barely emerged before 1951, it mitigate climate change, and produces the tripled between 1965 and 1997 (Le Treut et report, Mitigation of Climate Change. al. 2007). A special task force of the IPCC works on This proliferation of research has occurred National Greenhouse Gas Inventories (IPCC as models of the earth’s processes have 2004). become increasingly complex, with new The Assessment Reports produced by the factors included. Faster computer speeds IPCC have been extremely important to both allow scientists to increase the number, the research and policymaking communities, complexity, and resolution of the models. providing increasingly detailed information As this information is compiled, the result on all aspects of future climate change. The is a more complete picture of a range of First Assessment Report was published in possible climate futures. Using this range 1990 and formed the basis for the negotia- of possible climate futures, scientists can 6 project impacts of climate change on natural ers. Modelers then delivered their results to and human systems, examine the resilience the impacts assessment and vulnerability of these systems, and develop plans to ad- community, who use this information as the dress both
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