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Thrombolysis for Acute Ischemic Stroke: Does It Work?—The Con Position

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Thrombolysis for Acute Ischemic Stroke: Does It Work?—The Con Position EDITORIAL COMMENTARY Thrombolysis for acute ischemic stroke: does it work?—the con position Chris Johnstone*† Thrombolysis for acute ischemic stroke (AIS) has (n = 16–57), and two had unacceptably poor metho- become mainstream therapy, despite the scientific evi- dological quality. The Cochrane authors acknowledged dence rather than because of it. Careful scrutiny of the and measured the high level of heterogeneity in their literature demonstrates that it has proven harm but no choice of studies (I2 = 39%) but did not modify their clear benefit, because of the sheer paucity of hard evi- conclusion. Therefore, there are only 11 large (n ≥ 100) dence supporting its use. There are only two large RCTs of reasonable quality and homogeneous metho- randomized controlled trials (RCTs) showing benefit dology (Table 1, including the International Stroke for thrombolysis, and nine large RCTs that failed to Trial [IST-3], which was published after the Cochrane show any significant difference to placebo (four were Review). If the likelihood of a good outcome (mRS ≥ 3) stopped early due to excess harm). This is in stark is recalculated using only these 11 trials (I2 = 5%), contrast to the clear mortality benefit for thrombolysis thrombolysis is favoured with OR = 0.87 (95% con- in six out of eight large RCT for myocardial infarction.1 fidence interval [CI] = 0.79–0.96) but with a CI close to Both systematic and non-systematic reviews of throm- 1.0 and a number needed to treat (NNT) of 29. Even if bolysis for AIS are severely biased by the inappropriate the statistical significance is real, the clinical significance inclusion of heterogeneous studies, to the extent that is doubtful. There is also an excess of death or symp- their positive conclusions can be reversed simply by tomatic intracranial hemorrhage (ICH) (OR = 1.53) eliminating those studies. The remainder of often with a number needed to harm (NNH) of 11. The risk- quoted evidence in favour of thrombolysis is either benefit analysis now favours placebo. uncontrolled monitoring data or hypothetical con- If thrombolysis does not work for AIS, why are there jecture, neither of which answers the question of two positive trials? This can easily be due to chance. efficacy. Using the standard threshold of significance (p = 0.05), if The first issue to address is defining which RCT enough RCTs are performed with the same study ques- should be included in the analysis. Wardlaw* is the lead tion, 1 out of every 20 studies will demonstrate a statis- author of six sequential literature reviews since 1992, tically significant outcome by chance alone. In other four in the Cochrane database. The latest Cochrane words, the probability that 2 of 11 stroke studies will systematic review in 2014 concluded that there “appears show a positive result for thrombolysis, when in reality to be a net benefit of a significant reduction in the there is no difference from placebo (type I error), is proportion who are dead or dependent at the end of approximately 25%. This possibility is supported by the follow-up,” defined as modified Rankin Scale (mRS) ≥3 marginal results of the two positive trials: the National (odds ratio [OR] = 0.85), using data extracted from 22 Institute of Neurological Disorders and Stroke (NINDS) of 27 studies in the review.2 Nine of these studies, study3 and the European Cooperative Acute Stroke Study however, measured brain reperfusion as the primary III (ECASS-III).4 NINDS had the best outcome, where outcome (not clinical improvement), used intra-arterial patients treated within 3 hours were 12% more likely to injections instead of intravenous, or were very small have a good functional outcome (mRS 0–1) at 3 months. From the *Department of Emergency Medicine, Caboolture Hospital, Caboolture, Queensland, Australia; and the †School of Medicine, The University of Queensland, Brisbane, Australia. Correspondence to: Dr. Chris Johnstone, Emergency Department, Caboolture Hospital, LMB 3, Caboolture, Qld 4510, Australia. Email: [email protected] © Canadian Association of Emergency Physicians CJEM 2015;17(2):180–183 DOI 10.1017/cem.2015.14 CJEM JCMU 2015;17(2) 180 Downloaded from https://www.cambridge.org/core. IP address: 170.106.33.19, on 28 Sep 2021 at 22:49:04, subject to the Cambridge Core terms of use, available at https://www.cambridge.org/core/terms. https://doi.org/10.1017/cem.2015.14 Stroke thrombolysis efficacy Table 1. Randomized controlled trials of intravenous plasminogen activator (tPA) is effective, but other thrombolysis for acute ischemic stroke (n ≥ 100) fibrinolytic agents are not, ignoring trials that used Year of Time to streptokinase and desmoteplase.10 Apart from biological † Title* publication N Agent Treatment implausibility, this view is inconsistent with the litera- MAST-I23 1995 622 SK <6h ture for strokes and other diseases. Two of three small ECASS-I24 1995 620 tPA <6h pilot studies using desmoteplase in AIS showed benefit NINDS-II3 1995 333 tPA <3h for thrombolysis and were included in the 2014 25 – MAST-E 1996 310 SK <6h Cochrane Review.11 13 Food and Drug Administration ASK26 1996 340 SK <4h 27 < (FDA)-approved agents for thrombolysis in pulmonary ECASS-II 1998 800 tPA 6h 14 ATLANTIS- 1999 613 tPA <5h embolus include streptokinase, urokinase, and tPA. In > B28 eight large (n 1000) placebo-controlled RCTs of ATLANTIS- 2000 142 tPA <6h thrombolysis in ST-elevation myocardial infarction, A29 both streptokinase and tPA were effective.1 ECASS-III4 2008 821 tPA 3–4.5 h It has also been argued that many studies failed because 11 – DIAS-2 2009 193 DS 3 9h they included patients after 4.5 hours. In 2004, Hacke* IST-316 2012 3,035 tPA <6h et al. published a pooled analysis of six tPA trials (ECASS, Total 7,829 alteplase thrombolysis for acute noninterventional *ASK = Australian streptokinase; ATLANTIS = alteplase thrombolysis for acute noninterventional therapy in ischemic stroke; DS = desmoteplase; therapy in ischemic stroke [ATLANTIS], NINDS) DIAS = desmoteplase in acute ischemic stroke; ECASS = European Cooperative Acute Stroke Study; IST = International Stroke Trial; MAST = Multicentre Acute Stroke Trial attempting to show that earlier treatment had better (Italy, Europe); NINDS = National Institute of Neurological Disorders and Stroke 15 † outcomes. The study selection is arbitrary and biased in SK = streptokinase; tPA = tissue plasminogen activator. favour of NINDs patients. This work is speculation, not evidence. Furthermore, there is no pattern in the litera- ture that supports a relationship between time of treat- In a recent Australian study, only 15% of all AIS patients ment and outcome: the Australian streptokinase (ASK) who arrived within 4.5 hours were eligible for thrombo- study had a 4-hour enrolment limit and ATLANTIS-B a lysis.5 Therefore, for an average hospital admitting 100 3–5 hour window, both similar to the 4.5-hour limit in stroke patients in a year, assuming ideal conditions and ECASS-III, but with negative results. Subgroup early presentations, 80 would have AIS, 12 would receive analysis of the 0–3 hour period in ASK, ECASS-I, and thrombolysis, and potentially 1 patient would have a better ECASS-II showed no benefitinthatperiod(incontrast recovery. In addition, the trial results themselves are to the 3-hour limit in NINDS) and neither did the dependent on the definition of good outcome. For example, ATLANTIS-B review of the 3- to 4-hour subgroup. in ECASS-III, if it changes from mRS 0–1tomRS0–2 IST-3 demonstrated a worse outcome in the 3- to (i.e., includes mild disability) the benefitofthrombolysis 4.5-hour period than in the later (4.5- to 6-hour) period. disappears, referred to as wobble by Wardlaw et al.2 Similarly, NINDS reported combined parts I and II Both trials have been criticized for their methodol- results at 3 months, and patients treated after 90 minutes ogy, especially because the patients in the placebo had better outcomes than those treated earlier. groups of both trials had more severe strokes at IST-3 deserves special mention here as the largest trial enrolment, and, in ECASS-III, more placebo patients with 3,035 patients.16 The primary outcome was the had prior strokes.6 Two groups re-analysed the NINDS proportion of people who were alive and independent at data adjusting for baseline differences, with different 6 months. It was powered to detect a 4.7% difference, yet conclusions.7,8 Furthermore, care in a multidisciplinary the final difference was only 1.5% and not significant. stroke unit is the only proven therapy to date, with a The author’s astonishing statement that secondary ordi- reduction in death and disability equivalent to that nal analysis “provided evidence of a favourable shift in the claimed by thrombolysis.9 IST-3 was the only trial to distribution of Oxford Handicap Scores at 6 months with control for this variable, and it is plausible that some of treatment” is completely irrelevant to the negative out- the benefits seen in NINDS and ECASS-III were due come of the trial. Post-hoc analyses and secondary out- to variability in level of care. comes are of value only in generating hypotheses for Can the nine negative trials be explained away? future study and should not be used to contradict the Proponents of thrombolysis have decided that tissue primary outcome—thrombolysis did not work! CJEM JCMU 2015;17(2) 181 Downloaded from https://www.cambridge.org/core. IP address: 170.106.33.19, on 28 Sep 2021 at 22:49:04, subject to the Cambridge Core terms of use, available at https://www.cambridge.org/core/terms. https://doi.org/10.1017/cem.2015.14 Johnstone Stroke registries and community studies are often 2.
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