BAHRAIN البحرين RENTAL قطاع اﻹيجارات Bahrain Rental قطاع اﻻيجارات Market Review السكنية فى البحرين Q3 2009 الربع 3 2009 REAL ESTATE MARKET REPORTS تـقـاريـر �سوق الـعـقـارات ISSUE 9 اﻻ�سدار 9 www.realcapita.com www.realcapita.com BAHRAIN RENTAL CONTENTS Rental Market Summary 3 Rental Market Summary 3 Moderate Correction Begins in Bahrain Rental Market 4 Occupancy Ratio Drops Below 90% in “SS 1” 5 High Premium for Services Fuelling More Interest in Serviced Apartments 6 Improved Performance Only in the Short Stay Category 7 The Mix of Property Grades Remained the in “SS 1” 8 Higher Grade Properties Undergo Higher Degrees of Correction 10 Demand Favours Smaller Products 11 Area Wise Analysis 15 Central Manama: Occupancy and Average Monthly Rent Declined 16 Juffair: Considerable Drop in Occupancy, More to Come in the Future 19 Seef District: Big Drop in Occupancy, Concealed Correction in Average Monthly Rent 21 Southern Manama: Divergent Trends in Different Market Segments 24 Muharraq (excluding Amwaj) – The Hardest Hit Rental Market 27 Rentals Market Dynamics in Organised Villas “SS 2” 29 Occupancy Ratio Declines in “SS 2” but Remains Above 90% 29 “SS 2” also Runs on Staple Variety Products 30 Villa Rentals in “SS 2” are Stable 31 Villas in “SS 2” & “SS 3” Are Mostly Semi-Furnished 33 Villa Rentals May Correct Significantly due to New Supply in the Pipeline 33 Rental Market Outlook 33 The Unorganised Segment Threatens to Undermine The Organised Segment Significantly 34 Annexes 35 Annex 1: Definitions of the Term Used in the Report 36 Annex 2: Rental Establishments Grading Methodology 38 Annex 3: Data Sources and the Structure of the Database 40 Profiles 42 RealCAPITA 43 Liases Foras 46 Previous Issues 47 Rental Market Review Rental Market Review RENTAL MARKET SUMMARY 1. A moderate correction has begun in Bahrain’s Rental 9. The Occupancy Ratio at Juffair fell from 92.3% in to The Occupancy Adj. Market. Occupancy is slipping and Monthly Rentals are 88.8% in Q3 2009. The Average Monthly Rent dropped Average Monthly getting squeezed. by around 1.3%; the combined effect of these two factors is a 5% correction in the Occupancy Adj. Average Rent declined by 3%. 2. While existing properties have been able to retain Monthly Rent. It is noteworthy that Juffair is the biggest customers, newly operated properties are facing very rental cluster in the country. challenging times as the incremental demand in the market is very low. 10. In addition to the wide coverage of organised Furnished apartments “SS 1”, we have carried out a sample-based 3. The Occupancy Ratio for organised Furnished coverage of the organised villas “SS 2” sub segment apartments “SS 1” – the biggest sub segment in the ( villa compounds) in Northern Bahrain. This includes Rental Market - dropped to 88.6% in Q3 2009 which is locations such as Budaiya, Barbar, Saar, Janabiya, Al a 2.3 percentage points drop compared to Q1 2009. Jasra and Hamala. 4. In the last three months, the Average Monthly Rent 11. We tracked 95 Operational Properties in villa compounds dropped as well from BD 6.02 per sq.m. to BD 5.99 in Q3 2009 with 1,852 villas. We registered 157 vacant per sq.m. – a decline of a mere 0.5%. The effect of villas, which gives an Occupancy Ratio of 91.5%. “SS this slight drop is amplified by the decline in Occupancy 2” is thus performing beyond expectations. There Ratio and as a result, the Occupancy Adj. Average were concerns in the market that the crisis will result Monthly Rent declined by 3%. into high vacancy for villa compounds but it has held up remarkably well. The primary reason for this is the 5. The most worrying number, however, is a jump of 26% in relatively limited supply of villa compounds in Bahrain. the number of Rental Apartments Under Construction. While not many new rental projects have started over 12. Our data shows that in the last three months, the the last six months, the increase in the supply pipeline Average Monthly Rent of various products in “SS 2” is primarily on account of many freehold residential have remained stable. developments converting to the Rental Market. 13. Despite some positive indicators, we note that a sizeable 6. The big jump in the rental supply pipeline has come at a share of the freehold supply is entering the Rental time when even the Operational Properties are facing a Market. Many developers have converted freehold drop in Occupancy Ratio. This may foretell a prolonged projects in search of the regular flow of rental income. correction period for the Rental Market over the coming In essence, more rental supply is competing for the quarters. same customers. 7. Off late, the Short Stay category has generated increased 14. All this is happening at a time when the employment interest in the market with several new operators trying base has stopped growing in Bahrain. Official to enter this segment. The continued strength of tourist employment figures show that, after growing at a rapid inflow from Saudi Arabia was the key motivation amidst pace till Q1 2009, the private sector employment base the nervousness in the market that the Long Stay market has come to a standstill over the last two quarters. does not provide attractive growth opportunities. 15. This will lead to further drop in Occupancy Ratios 8. For the Short Stay category, while the Occupancy Ratio across all areas, particularly in the Long Stay category, dropped from 90.3% to 85.5% in the last three months, which may result into 10-15% correction in rentals. We the Average Monthly Rent jumped by a whopping 14%. maintain a negative outlook on Bahrain Rental Market. The Occupancy Ratio for this category is less reliable as it changes on a day to day basis. But the increase in rental rate, if sustained, is surely a positive factor. 3 Rental Market Review The newly Moderate Correction Begins in why the scale of correction in the Rental Market has been opened properties Bahrain Rental Market moderate so far. are facing very As the Residential Market regains some stabilisation, As discussed in our previous survey of the Rental Market (Q1 challenging times moderate correction is visible in the Rental Market. 2009), we have divided this market into 3 sub segments: Occupancy is slipping and Monthly Rentals are getting Sub Segment 1 “SS 1”: organised Furnished depressed. While the existing rental properties have been apartments; able to retain customers, newly opened properties are facing very challenging times as the incremental demand in the Sub Segment 2 “SS 2”: organised villas (mostly villa market is very low. compounds); On the positive side, the Short Stay category has shown Sub Segment 3 “SS 3”: unorganised apartments and sizeable growth in Average Monthly Rent. Also the villa villas. rental market, surprisingly though, has maintained very good health with Occupancy Ratio of more than 90%. Details of these sub segments are provided in “Annex 1 – Despite such positives, there remains little doubt that the Structure of Bahrain Rental Market”. This report focuses overall rental Market is undergoing correction. mainly on “SS 1” and “SS 2”. The Rental Market is entering a correction phase while Occupancy Ratio Drops Below 90% other segments are experiencing early signs of stabilisation. in “SS 1” To this extent, the Rental Market is lagging behind other real estate segments. But this is not surprising as the Rental The Occupancy Ratio in “SS 1” dropped below 90% Market is mainly driven by employment growth with natural in Q3 2009. Chart 1 shows that of the total Operational population growth providing some additional support. The Apartments, 88.6% are the occupied while 11.4% are employment base in Bahrain has not shown any decline vacant. in the crisis although it has now stopped growing. That is 4 RENTAL MARKET In Q3 2009 we tracked 11,040 Operational Apartments, Chart 1: Operational Apartments in “SS 1” – 26% increase in Split by Occupied and Vacant Apartments (Sep-09) which is marginally more than the corresponding number Apartments under for in Q1 2009. Of these apartments,1,264 were vacant Construction is a very resulting in an Occupancy Ratio of 88.6%. This represents a worrying number. drop of 2.3 percentage points during the last six months. 11.4% Occupied The Average Monthly Rent dropped from BD 6.02 per Apartments sq.m. to BD 5.99 per sq.m. – a decline of just 0.5%. But after factoring the drop in Occupancy Ratio, the plunge in 88.6% vacant Occupancy Adj. Average Monthly Rent is 3%. This is the true Apartments extent of correction in the Rental Market. The most worrying number, however, is the sharp jump in the number of Rental Apartments Under Construction that increased from 2,621 in Q1 2009 to 3,310 in Q3 2009 – a Table 1 shows that we tracked 345 Operational Properties in jump of more than 26%. While not many new rental projects “SS 1” in Q3 2009. We actually tracked a handful more than have started over the last six months, the increase in the this number but some properties were temporarily withdrawn supply pipeline is primarily on account of many freehold from the market on account of either maintenance work or residential developments converting to the Rental Market. the lease term expiries for the company that is leasing the The big jump in rental supply has come at a time when even property. These properties were not considered for any of the Operational Properties are struggling to maintain their the calculations.