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Appendix D – Hydropower Analysis J. Percy Priest Reservoir, Tennessee Draft Water Supply Storage Reallocation Report Appendix D – Hydropower Analysis April 2018 Hydropower Analysis Center – Portland District U.S. Army Corps of Engineers Table of Contents Table of Tables .......................................................................................................................................... ii Table of Figures ........................................................................................................................................ iii 1. Introduction .......................................................................................................................................... 1 1.1. Purpose and Scope ........................................................................................................................ 1 1.2. Reallocation Authority. ................................................................................................................. 1 1.3. Project Description – The Affected Cumberland River Projects ................................................... 1 2. General .................................................................................................................................................. 3 2.1. Period of Analysis .......................................................................................................................... 3 2.2. Discount Rate. ............................................................................................................................... 3 2.3. Price Level. .................................................................................................................................... 4 2.4. Rounding and Totals. .................................................................................................................... 4 2.5. Simulation with ResSim Reservoir Operations Model. ................................................................. 4 2.6. Water Supply Withdrawal Alternatives Considered. .................................................................... 4 2.7. Study Assumptions. ....................................................................................................................... 5 2.8. Hydropower Effects. ..................................................................................................................... 5 3. Power Benefits ...................................................................................................................................... 6 4. Energy Benefits Foregone ..................................................................................................................... 7 4.1. Computation of Energy Benefits. ................................................................................................ 11 5. Capacity Benefits Foregone ................................................................................................................ 15 5.1. Dependable Capacity .................................................................................................................. 15 5.2. Dependable Capacity Evaluation Method .................................................................................. 16 5.3. Hydrologic Period of Analysis ..................................................................................................... 16 5.4. Computation of Capacity Values ................................................................................................. 20 5.5. Most Likely Thermal Generating Alternative .............................................................................. 20 5.6. Values Used in Screening Curve Analysis .................................................................................... 20 5.7. Screening Curve Analysis ............................................................................................................ 21 5.8. Least Costly Thermal Mix and Composite Capacity Value .......................................................... 22 6. Summary of Power Benefits Foregone ............................................................................................... 24 7. Replacement Costs of Power .............................................................................................................. 25 i J. Percy Priest Reservoir, TN Draft Appendix D: Hydropower Analysis 8. Revenue Foregone .............................................................................................................................. 25 9. Credit to Power Marketing Agency ..................................................................................................... 26 9.1. Remaining Period of Contract ..................................................................................................... 27 10. Summary of Results ............................................................................................................................ 28 Table of Tables Table 2-1. Pertinent Study Data Hydropower and Economic Parameters ......................................... 3 Table 2-2. Water Supply Consumptive Use ........................................................................................ 5 Table 3-1. Annual Hydropower Losses (2017 Dollars) due to 10 MGD Flow Reductions ................. 7 Table 4-1. Generation Block Schedule for SEPA/USACE Hydropower Plants ................................... 8 Table 4-2. On-Peak & Off-Peak Energy Allocation for J. Percy Priest ................................................ 8 Table 4-3. Alternatives’ Average Monthly Energy Losses at J. Percy Priest .................................... 10 Table 4-4. LMP Pricing Hubs - SERC Central Subregion ................................................................... 11 Table 4-5. Monthly Shaping Factors for the Four Generation Blocks. ............................................ 13 Table 4-6. Average Annual LMP Energy Prices by Month for Each Block ....................................... 14 Table 4-7. J. Percy Priest Partial Alternative Annual Energy Benefits Foregone ............................. 14 Table 4-8. Proportional Energy Benefits Foregone for Downstream Projects ................................. 15 Table 4-9. Summary of Annual Energy Benefits Foregone .............................................................. 15 Table 5-1. Capability of J. Percy Priest Hydropower Plant .............................................................. 17 Table 5-2. Dependable Capacity Calculations under the No Action Alternative (Existing Conditions) .......................................................................................................................... 19 Table 5-3. J. Percy Priest - Dependable Capacity Summary (MW) .................................................. 20 Table 5-4. Plant Type Capacity Value and Operating Costs ............................................................ 21 Table 5-5. J. Percy Priest Annual Capacity Benefits Foregone ........................................................ 23 Table 5-6. Proportional Annual Capacity Benefits Foregone for Downstream Projects .................. 24 Table 5-7. Annual Capacity Benefits Foregone ................................................................................ 24 Table 6-1. Summary of Average Annual Power Benefits Foregone ................................................ 25 Table 8-1. SEPA Composite Revenue Rate ....................................................................................... 26 Table 8-2. Hydropower Revenue Foregone - Summary .................................................................. 26 Table 9-1. Estimated Credits to PMA ............................................................................................... 27 Table 10-1. Summary - Annual Hydropower Benefits Foregone .................................................... 28 Table 10-2. Annual Revenue Foregone & Annual Credit due PMA ................................................. 28 ii J. Percy Priest Reservoir, TN Draft Appendix D: Hydropower Analysis Table of Figures Figure 1-1. Cumberland River Basin Projects ..................................................................................... 2 Figure 4-1. Average Monthly Generation at J. Percy Priest (1939 – 2009) for No Action Alternative ............................................................................................................................. 9 Figure 4-2. EIA Generation Cost forecast for SERC Central Subregion ............................................ 13 Figure 5-1. 2014 Generation Capacity by Fuel Type for SERC Central Subregion ........................... 16 Figure 5-2. Thermal Screening Curve............................................................................................... 22 Figure 5-3. Generation Duration Curve for J. Percy Priest .............................................................. 23 iii J. Percy Priest Reservoir, TN Draft Appendix D: Hydropower Analysis 1. Introduction 1.1. Purpose and Scope This report, prepared by the Hydropower Analysis Center (HAC) for the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers (USACE) Nashville District (LRN) presents an analysis of the hydropower benefits and costs of reallocating additional storage in J. Percy Priest (JPP) Reservoir for water supply use. This reallocation is based on requests from the City of Murfreesboro, Town of Smyrna, and the Consolidated Utility District of Rutherford County to withdraw as much as 75 million gallons per day (MGD) from the reservoir. 1.2. Reallocation
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