EUROPEAN VEHICLE MARKET STATISTICS Pocketbook 2013 Table of Contents 1 Executive Summary 2 2 Number of Vehicles 10 3 Fuel Consumption & CO2 22 4 Technologies 40 5 Key Technical Parameters 52 6 Other Emissions & On-road 72 Annex Remarks on Data Sources 80 List of Figures and Tables 82 Abbreviations 85 References 86 Tables 87 An electronic version of this Pocketbook, including more detailed statistical data is available online: http://eupocketbook.theicct.org EUROpeaN VEHICle MarKet StatIstICS 2013 1 EXECUTIve SUmmARY The 2013 edition of European Vehicle Market Statistics offers a statistical portrait of passenger car and light commercial vehicle fleets in the European Union from 2001 to 2012. As in previous editions, the emphasis is on vehicle technologies, fuel consumption, and emissions of greenhouse gases and other air pollutants. The following pages give a concise overview of subsequent chapters, which then focus more closely on the Member States, manufacturers’ brands, and vehicle segments with the highest number of vehicle registrations. More comprehensive tables are included in the annex, along with information on sources. Number of vehicles New passenger car registrations continued on the generally downward path started in 2007; since that year they have fallen from 15.6 million to 12.0 million, a decline of 23%. The trend reflects the close relationship between vehicle sales and the economic climate. Accordingly, it is most pronounced in southern Europe, where vehicle sales have decreased by 60% in Spain and 45% in Italy since 2007. On the other hand, in Germany the number of vehicles sold in 2012 was about the same as in 2007. A brief sales spike in 2009 did interrupt the overall downward trend of the past five years, but this is attributable to economic stimulus programs (scrappage schemes) established by many national governments at that time, which encouraged citizens to buy new cars, rather than any structural change in the market. 2 Market share EU-27 Registrations (million) in 2012 (in %) Fig. 1-1 16 100 Passenger cars: 90 14 Registrations 80 by Member State 12 Others EU-12 70 10 Austria Netherlands 60 Belgium 8 Spain 50 Italy 40 6 United Kingdom 30 4 France 20 2 Germany 10 0 0 01 10 07 02 03 04 05 06 09 008 2011 2012 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 2 20 The European market remains centered on a handful of countries. Some 75% of all new passenger car registrations occur in the five largest markets (Germany, France, United Kingdom, Italy, and Spain). But from the point of view of makes and manufacturers, the market is much more diverse: the top seven brands capture only about 50% of the market. Internationally, total vehicle sales were at about 77 million in 2012, a 6% increase from 2011. This includes about 50 million cars and 27 million commer- cial vehicles. The top three markets are China (19 million vehicles sold in 2012), the U.S. (15 million), and the EU (14 million). Of the top 15 markets, the fastest growing in 2012 were Thailand (+80% from 2011 to 2012), Japan (+28%), Indonesia (+25%), and the U.S. (+13%). Since 2007, vehicle sales have about doubled in China, India, Thailand, and Indonesia. At the same time, vehicle markets in the EU, North America, and Japan remained constant or decreased within the same time period. 3 EUROpeaN VEHICle MarKet StatIstICS 2013 Fuel consumption and CO2 emissions The EU legislation setting binding targets for car- bon dioxide (CO2) emissions from passenger cars, introduced in 2009, has shown itself to be effective. The annual CO2 reduction rate for new cars on the market has increased from about 1% prior to 2008 to about 4% since then. In 2012, the average emission level was 132 g/km – very close to the 130 g/km target established for 2015. CO2 emissions and fuel consumption are directly linked, so that the current level can be translated to about 5.3 liters/100 km and 5.2 liters/100 km for the 2015 target. In 2012, the European Commission formally pro- posed an average CO2 emissions target for 2020 of 95 g/km, which translates into a fuel consumption of about 3.8 liters/100 km. Details of the proposal had been under discussion in the European Parliament and the European Council in the first half of 2013, with the European Parliament proposing some changes to the European Commission document, including a 2025 target range of 68–78 g/km of CO2. The final vote on the issue was scheduled for June 2013, but was delayed at the last minute and is now expected to take place later in 2013. Under the EU regulation, CO2 emission targets for every manufacturer are adjusted for the average weight of their specific vehicles, so that manufacturers of heavier vehicles get a less stringent target to meet. This is why the reductions in CO2 emissions (and therefore fuel consumption) required between 2015 and 2020 are the same for every manufacturer: 27 percent. (The absolute reductions required differ because their starting points – the 2015 targets, which they have already reached – are different.) Because technology potential and costs typically scale across vehicle segments, this means that the strin- gency of that required reduction is also about the same for all manufacturers. Some manufacturers (in particular PSA and Toyota) are already over-complying with their 2015 targets and are moving toward the necessary improvements to meet the 2020 target. 4 1 Executive Summary The range of emissions-level performance exhibited by manufacturers is echoed in the variation across the EU Member States. Germany’s average emissions are among the highest, while France’s are among the lowest, though both countries have about the same gross domestic product. A key reason is differences in vehicle fleet characteristics: passenger cars sold in Germany are on average 11% heavier and 25% more powerful. The trend in the Netherlands is particularly noteworthy: average CO2 emissions from new cars have declined there by 28% since 2007, on average of nearly 6% per year, after a major revision of the car registration tax system. Status 2012 Target 2020 in liters per 100 kilometer (and grams CO2 per kilometer) Fig. 1-2 EU average 5.3 (132) 3.8 (95) Average fuel Fiat consumption in 4.7 (118) 3.4 (86) the EU by vehicle PSA (Peugeot-Citroën) manufacturer 4.9 (122) 3.8 (94) Toyota http://www.theicct.org/ 4.9 (122) 3.7 (93) blogs/staff/midsummer- Renault-Nissan nights-skullduggery 5.1 (128) 3.7 (93) Ford 5.2 (129) 3.7 (92) Volkswagen 5.3 (133) 3.8 (96) GM (Opel) 5.4 (134) 3.9 (97) BMW 5.5 (138) 4.0 (100) Daimler 5.7 (143) 4.0 (101) -10% -20% -27% Required reduction 2015–2020 2015 and 2020 targets calculated assuming no future change to 2012 vehicle weight. Data source: European Environmental Agency EEA (2013). Vehicle weight is ‘mass in running order’, i.e., the weight of an empty vehicle +75 kg. 5 EUROpeaN VEHICle MarKet StatIstICS 2013 Technologies The vast majority of Europe’s new cars remain powered by gasoline or diesel motors. Diesel cars account for 55% of all new registrations, gasoline cars for 42%; all other technologies – hybrids, electrics, and natural gas and ethanol-fueled vehicles – combine to make up the remaining 3%. This situation differs notably from other major car markets. The U.S., China, and Japan are all dominated by gasoline-powered cars, with diesels playing almost no role. One market of note that has embraced diesel technology, however, is India, where the diesel market share rose to about 50% in 2012. Alternative powertrains mostly remain niche products for now. Hybrids account for about 1% of registrations in EU Member States; in the Nether- lands, the clear front-runner, they make up 4.5% of total passenger car sales, and that anomalously high proportion can be attributed to generous Fig. 1-3 Market share, gasoline hybrid-electric vehicles (in %) 5 Passenger cars: Market share, Netherlands gasoline hybrid- 4 electric vehicles by Member State 3 2 Spain France United Kingdom EU-27 1 Belgium Germany Italy 0 01 10 07 02 03 05 08 09 06 04 2011 2012 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 6 1 Executive Summary financial incentives for low-emitting cars starting in 2007. Battery electric vehicles (BEV) make up about 0.2% of vehicle registrations in the EU, again with the Netherlands being the front-runner at about 0.8% in 2012. In the U.S. hybrid vehicles make up 5% of all new sales; in Japan, 20%. Technical parameters The average mass of new cars in the EU in 2012 was 1400 kg, which represents a return, after a brief hiatus, to the recent historical pattern of annual increases. The trend is concerning because of the relationship between vehicle mass, fuel consumption and CO2 emissions. Fuel consumption and CO2 emissions are effectively synonymous; the mass of CO2 emitted from burning a litre of fuel is the same no matter what type of vehicle it powers, but a more efficient vehicle is able to drive further on that litre of fuel. Had average new car mass remained constant for the last 10 years, the EU’s CO2 emission level would be close to 120 g/km, rather than the current level of 132 g/km. In 2012 both the German and Swedish new car fleets were significantly above the EU average, at 1489 and 1580 kg respectively. In contrast, French, Italian, and Dutch consumers opted for signifi- cantly lighter cars (1342, 1313, and 1252 kg respectively).