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Assessing General and Partial Equilibrium Simulations of Doha Round Outcomes Using Meta-Analysis

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Assessing General and Partial Equilibrium Simulations of Doha Round Outcomes Using Meta-Analysis A Service of Leibniz-Informationszentrum econstor Wirtschaft Leibniz Information Centre Make Your Publications Visible. zbw for Economics Hess, Sebastian; von Cramon-Taubadel, Stephan Working Paper Assessing general and partial equilibrium simulations of Doha round outcomes using meta-analysis cege Discussion Papers, No. 67 Provided in Cooperation with: Georg August University of Göttingen, cege - Center for European, Governance and Economic Development Research Suggested Citation: Hess, Sebastian; von Cramon-Taubadel, Stephan (2007) : Assessing general and partial equilibrium simulations of Doha round outcomes using meta-analysis, cege Discussion Papers, No. 67, University of Göttingen, Center for European, Governance and Economic Development Research (cege), Göttingen This Version is available at: http://hdl.handle.net/10419/32015 Standard-Nutzungsbedingungen: Terms of use: Die Dokumente auf EconStor dürfen zu eigenen wissenschaftlichen Documents in EconStor may be saved and copied for your Zwecken und zum Privatgebrauch gespeichert und kopiert werden. personal and scholarly purposes. Sie dürfen die Dokumente nicht für öffentliche oder kommerzielle You are not to copy documents for public or commercial Zwecke vervielfältigen, öffentlich ausstellen, öffentlich zugänglich purposes, to exhibit the documents publicly, to make them machen, vertreiben oder anderweitig nutzen. publicly available on the internet, or to distribute or otherwise use the documents in public. Sofern die Verfasser die Dokumente unter Open-Content-Lizenzen (insbesondere CC-Lizenzen) zur Verfügung gestellt haben sollten, If the documents have been made available under an Open gelten abweichend von diesen Nutzungsbedingungen die in der dort Content Licence (especially Creative Commons Licences), you genannten Lizenz gewährten Nutzungsrechte. may exercise further usage rights as specified in the indicated licence. www.econstor.eu CeGE-Discussion Paper 67 Sebastian Hess Stephan von Cramon-Taubadel Assessing General and Partial Equilibrium Simulations of Doha Round Outcomes using Meta-Analysis GEORG-AUGUST-UNIVERSITÄT GÖTTINGEN August 2007 ISSN 1439-2305 Assessing General and Partial Equilibrium Simulations of Doha Round Outcomes using Meta-Analysis Sebastian Hess and Stephan von Cramon-Taubadel1 Abstract: Applied general and partial equilibrium models are widely used tools for ex ante analysis of trade policy changes. However, simulation results seem to exhibit significant variation across publications, and the often criticised ‘black box’ character of applied trade models makes meaningful comparisons of simulation results very difficult. As a potential remedy, this paper presents a meta-analysis of simulation-based Doha round publications. The meta-regression explains simulated welfare changes as a function of model characteristics, base-data and policy experiments. Regression results show that a major share of the variation within the dependent variable is explained by the covariates, and estimated coefficients show plausible signs and magnitudes. However, results also reveal that many model-based studies lack systematic documentation of their experimental settings. JEL classification: C00; C23; C68; F10 Keywords: Meta-analysis, Partial equilibrium, General equilibrium, Trade liberalisation, WTO, Doha This Paper has been presented at the CeGE Research Workshop on July 5th, 2007 in Göttingen. 1 Corresponding Address: Department für Agrarökonomie und Rurale Entwicklung Lehrstuhl für Agrarpolitik Platz der Göttinger Sieben 5, 37073 Göttingen. Email: [email protected] The authors are grateful to Yves Surry, Bernhard Brümmer, Martin Banse, and Frank van Tongeren for many useful suggestions, and to Tinoush Jamali and Inken K¨ohler for valuable research assistance. This project has been supported by the German Research Council (DFG). Sebastian Hess has partly been supported by the Friedrich-Naumann- Foundation, and Stephan von Cramon gratefully acknowledges support from the Fulbright Commission. Introduction Empirical estimates of the gains and losses that would accrue to specific interest groups, countries and regions are perhaps the most important contribution made by economists to debates about trade liberalisation. Economists employ applied trade models to provide such estimates, which have become an important part of the political decision making process (Devarajan and Robinson, 2002). Over the last decade, quantitative model-based predictions of significant gains from trade liberalisation, not only for developed but also for developing and least developed countries, are often cited to highlight the benefits of a successful conclusion to the Doha Development Round (DDR) of WTO negotiations (e.g. Anderson et al., 2000; World Bank 2000; Anderson et al., 2005) However, applied trade models are frequently criticised as having weak empirical foundations (Alston et al., 1990; Alston et al., 1995; McKitrick, 1998; Anderson and Wincoop, 2001) and as being insufficiently transparent (Ackerman, 2005; Piermartini and Teh, 2005). Furthermore, different models often produce trade simulation results that “… differ quite widely even across similar experiments” (Charlton and Stiglitz, 2005), and convincing explanations for these differences are, due to the complexity of most models, difficult to provide. For example, Figure 1 presents a set of simulated welfare gains from agricultural liberalisation under the DDR. Simulated global gains range from under 50 to over 350 billion US$, and do not appear to be systematically related to the magnitude of the assumed liberalisation step. Experienced modellers who are acquainted with the literature can propose many explanations for the variation displayed in Figure 1. These explanations are largely partial and often quite technical, however, and only a select group of specialists will have anything approaching a comprehensive overview of the factors that drive different simulation results. For many members of the large and heterogeneous group of users of trade model simulations, variation such as that displayed in Figure 1 is bewildering, and most proposed explanations are inaccessible. Figure 1: Simulated welfare gains from agricultural liberalisation, selected studies Source: UNCTAD (2003). These problems complicate an already controversial debate on trade liberalisation, and they are water on the mills of critics who question the benefits of liberalisation and the ability of economists to measure them objectively. They are especially difficult for policy makers and other stakeholders in least developed countries, which often cannot afford to maintain sophisticated own modelling capacities and dedicate highly trained personnel to interpreting and assessing the many different modelling results that are in circulation. Although the current stalemate in the DDR is certainly not primarily due to difficulties with applied trade models, it does provide an opportunity to pause and 2 assess the input that economists have provided, and to consider whether and how this input and its communication might be made more effective. In this paper we present a meta-analysis of partial and general equilibrium simulations of possible outcomes of the DDR of WTO negotiations. The aim of this analysis is to identify model characteristics (e.g. partial vs. general equilibrium specification, level of product or regional disaggregation) and other factors (e.g. the database employed, the size of the simulated liberalisation step) that influence simulation results in a systematic manner, and to derive quantitative estimates of these influences. Our aim is not to assess the validity or appropriateness of specific modelling frameworks or model features, but rather to increase transparency about their impacts on simulation results. The results of our analysis demonstrate that it is possible to explain a sizeable proportion of the variation in simulated liberalisation outcomes using information on key model characteristics and other factors. These results can contribute to reducing the impression of arbitrariness that comparisons of model-based simulations such as Figure 1 above engender. They can also inform the users of simulations such as policy makers and trade negotiators. Finally, these results can add to modellers’ understanding of the key factors that drive their simulation results. As an important by- product, our analysis shows that many simulation studies do not provide sufficient documentation on these key, driving factors, thus making it impossible for users to assess or reproduce their results. The paper is structured as follows: Section 2 discusses different methods of comparing and assessing the results of trade model simulations and introduces the meta-analytical approach employed here. Section 3 outlines the data and econometric specification used in our meta-analysis of simulated DDR outcomes. Results are presented in Section 4, and Section 5 concludes. 2. Comparison and assessment of trade model simulations – past approaches and meta-analysis What factors underlie the variation in the results of trade model simulations depicted in comparisons such as Figure 1 above? Based on previous assessments of trade models (e.g. Shoven and Whalley, 1984; Francois and Reinert, 1997; Ginzburg and Keyzer, 1997; Hertel, 1999; van Tongeren et al., 2001; Harrison et al., 2003; Bouët, 2006) we propose the following classification of possible factors into five categories.2 First, different studies measure different outcomes (e.g. changes in welfare, output,
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