Cereals market situation

Committee for the Common Organisation of Agricultural Markets

30 September 2021 Exchange Rates Euro – US Dollar exchange rate

1.30

24/09/2021: 1 EUR = 1,17 USD 1.21 1.25 From the last Committee 02/01/2017 1.20 1.0465 +12% 1.20 1.19

1.15 1.18

1.1767 1.10 1.17 1.1719

1.05 1.16

Exchange rate: Spot, ECB reference - U.S. Dollar/Euro 1.15 1.00

3 Euro and US Dollar – Russian Rouble exchange rate

100 24/09/2021: 1 EUR = 85,07 RUB; 1 USD = 72,6 RUB 90

80

70

60

50

40

30 Exchange rate: Spot, Refinitiv Eikon - RUS Ruble/Euro Exchange rate: Spot, Refinitiv Eikon - RUS Ruble/U.S. Dollar 20 07/14 01/15 07/15 01/16 07/16 01/17 07/17 01/18 07/18 01/19 07/19 01/20 07/20 01/21 07/21

4 Euro and US Dollar - Ukraine Hryvnia exchange rate

45 24/09/2021: 1 EUR = 31,46 UAH; 1 USD = 26,7 UAH 40

35

30

25

20

15

10 Exchange rate: Spot, Refinitiv Eikon - UKR Hryvnia/Euro Exchange rate: Spot, Refinitiv Eikon - UKR Hryvnia/U.S. Dollar 5 07/14 01/15 07/15 01/16 07/16 01/17 07/17 01/18 07/18 01/19 07/19 01/20 07/20 01/21 07/21

5 Euro – Argentine Peso Euro – Brazilian Real exchange rate exchange rate

120.0 8.0 110.0 24/09/2021 1 EUR = 115.46 ARS 100.0 7.0 24/09/2021: 1 EUR = 6,23 BRL

90.0 6.0 80.0

70.0 5.0 60.0

50.0 4.0

40.0 3.0 30.0

20.0 2.0 10.0 Exchange rate: Refinitiv Eikon FX cross rate Argentinian peso/Euro Exchange rate: Spot, ECB reference - Brazilian Real/Euro 0.0 1.0 01/14 07/14 01/15 07/15 01/16 07/16 01/17 07/17 01/18 07/18 01/19 07/19 01/20 07/20 01/21 07/21 01/14 07/14 01/15 07/15 01/16 07/16 01/17 07/17 01/18 07/18 01/19 07/19 01/20 07/20 01/21 07/21 Crude oil price (USD/barrel)

140 24/09/2021: 78 120

100

80

60

40

20

Source: Refinitiv Eikon 0 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021

Crude oil futures price ($ per barrel), 1 month forw ard (FOB) Brent blend (North sea) - UK

7 Baltic Dry Index

5000

4500 24/09/2021: 4644

4000

3500

3000

2500

2000

1500

1000

500 Source: Refinitiv Eikon 0 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 Baltic Dry Index

8 World Cereals Forecasts

USDA World wheat: USDA

million tonnes million tonnes 600 781 790 800 763 764 500 756 780 738 735 730 776 750 717 739 742 748 400 699 680 731 700 705 711 655 697 698 300 298 650 651 284 283 293 283 660 262 244 200 222 199 199 197 600 179

100 550 75 70 65 64 72 72 69 51 54 61 61 53 0 500 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 est. proj.

World Ending Stocks of which 8 major exporters World Production Source: USDA September report World Consumption

10 USDA: Wheat production forecast

million tonnes 160

140 139

120

100

80 73

60 46

40 33 32 23 20 20 13

0 European Russia USA Canada Ukraine Australia Kazakhstan Argentina Union 2017 2018 2019 2020 est. 2021 proj. Source: USDA September report 11 USDA 2021/22 Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE – 616 of 10 September 2021)

Wheat production forecasts in selected countries (all wheat; million tonnes)

2021/22 Share of total 2020/21 m/m change (m t) y/y change (%)

EU-27 139.0 17.8% 125.9 +0.4 +10.4% USA 46.2 5.9% 49.7 - -7.1% Canada 23.0 2.9% 35.2 -1.0 -34.6% Russia 72.5 9.3% 85.4 - -15.1% Ukraine 33.0 4.2% 25.4 - +29.8% Australia 31.5 4.0% 33.0 +1.5 -4.5% Argentina 20.0 2.6% 17.7 -0.5 +13.4% China 136.9 17.5% 134.3 +0.9 +2.0% India 109.5 14.0% 107.9 +1.5 +1.5% World 780.3 100.0% 775.8 +3.4 +0.6%

12 Wheat import forecasts for selected countries and regions

2018/19 2019/20 2020/21 2021/22*

Algeria 7.515 7.145 7.519 (+0.1m m/m) 7.150

Egypt 12.354 12.811 12.149 (-0.35m) 13.000

Morocco 3.724 4.879 5.191 (-0.2m) 4.500

North Africa 26.956 27.991 28.164 (-0.4m) 27.950

Sub-Saharan Africa 22.571 26.953 27.081 (+0.33m) 26.850

Saudi Arabia 2.902 3.652 2.816 (-0.2m) 3.200 Vietnam 3.500 3.570 3.900 3.650

Indonesia 10.934 10.586 10.350 (+0.15m) 10.400

SE Asia 27.753 27.557 26.393 (+0.1m) 26.700 China 3.145 5.376 10.617 10.000

Source: USDA (data in million tonnes, incl. flour, July/June); *forecast North Africa = Algeria, Egypt, Libya, Morocco and Tunisia South East Asia = Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Thailand and Vietnam

13 USDA 2021/22 Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE – 616 of 10 September 2021)

Wheat: world production is forecast at a record 780.3m t (+3.4m t m/m; +4.5m or +0.6% y/y). The outlook was raised on further improved prospects in AUS, and larger crops in China and India in particular. Global consumption increased by 3.0m m/m to 789.6m t (+1.1%), incl. feed use up 1.9m to 159.2m t (+1.0%). Chinese total demand edged higher 1m to 149m t (-0.7% y/y), with feed use placed at 36m t (+1m m/m; -10% y/y). Ending stocks increased by 4.2m to 283.2m t (-3.2% y/y), mostly linked to upward revision of the beginning stocks.

The CAN crop was reduced further following the publication of the estimates of Statistics Canada. While the harvested area was maintained at 9.2m ha (-8.2% y/y), the yields were lowered to 2.50 t/ha (-28.8% y/y; -27% from 5- Y average). The harvest has yielded a record 3.2m t in Serbia (+18.5% y/y), where area (0.6m ha) was in line with previous seasons, however yield increased to 5.33 t/ha reflecting favourable conditions. India harvested a 5th consecutive record crop, the monthly increase is based on updated official estimates. Chinese production was raised on larger area (23.8m ha; +1.8%) estimated by China. The AUS crop forecast increased again, up by 1.5m to 31.5mt, potentially the third largest on record, as abundant rainfall and favourable conditions further improved yield prospects. Production outlook was cut by 0.5m to 20m t for ARG, still a new peak, as dry conditions in western and northern growing regions are expected to limit yield potential. Good rains are necessary in Sept-Oct in order to maintain yields.

World exports are now placed at 199.7m t (+0.5% y/y) with the EU and RUS expected to be the largest exporters with 35.0m t each, followed by the US (23.8m), UKR (23.5m) and AUS (23m).

14 World maize: USDA

million tonnes million tonnes

600 1198 1250 1145 1135 500 1123 1137 1090 1187 1150 1057 1026 1125 1117 400 1013 1119 1050 1084 1080 909 898 981 351 950 300 850 968 342 949 311 321 306 298 279 286 850 849 883 200 865 214 750

100 145 115 123 650 58 56 44 44 54 49 29 25 31 30 36 0 21 550 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 est. proj. World of which US World Production World Consumption Source: USDA September report Ending Stocks

15 USDA: maize production forecast

million tonnes 400.0 381

350.0

300.0

250.0

200.0

150.0 118 100.0 66 53 50.0 39

0.0 USA Brazil European Union Ukraine Argentine

2017 2018 2019 2020 est. 2021 proj. Source: USDA September report

16 USDA 2021/22 Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE – 616 of 10 September 2021)

Maize production forecasts in selected countries (million tonnes)

2021/22 Share of total 2020/21 m/m change (m t) y/y change (%) EU-27 65.5 5.5% 64.5 - +1.6% USA 380.9 31.8% 360.3 +6.3 +5.7% Ukraine 39.0 3.3% 30.3 - +28.7% Russia 15.5 1.3% 13.9 -1.0 +11.7%

Brazil 118.0 9.9% 86.0 (-1.0m m/m) - +37.2%

Argentina 53.0 4.4% 50.0 (+1.5m) +2.0 +6.0% China 273.0 22.8% 260.7 +5.0 +4.7% South Africa 17.0 1.4% 17.0 - +0.0%

World 1,197.8 100% 1,117.1 (+1.7m) +11.7 +7.2%

17 USDA 2021/22 Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE – 616 of 10 September 2021)

Maize: world production was lifted by nearly 12m to 1,197.8m t (+7.2% or +80.7m t y/y), as increases for ARG, China and the US have largely exceeded smaller cuts for RUS and Serbia. World consumption was lifted by 4.4m to 1,186.6m t (+4.4% or +50m y/y), incl. feed use up by 5.4m to 749.2m (+3.3% y/y), mainly linked to increases in US and CAN. Chinese demand for 2020/21 was cut by 4m to 285m t, with feed use down 3m to 203m t reflecting a switch to alternative feedstuff. In respect of 2021/22 consumption in China is steady m/m at 294m t with feed use however raised by 3m to 214m t. Ending stocks were lifted sharply (+13m to 297.63m t; +3.9% y/y) following an upward revision of beginning stocks and larger output projected for 2021/22. Stocks attributed to China were lifted by 9m to 207.17m t (+2.5% y/y; 69.6% of world total). US production forecast increased on larger area (34.4m ha; +3.2% y/y) and higher yield (11.06 t/ha; +2.5%). China is expected to harvest a record crop of 273m t (+5m m/m) reflecting very favourable growing conditions, in particular in the main producing provinces of the Northeast. Average yield is seen at a new peak of 6.50 t/ha with harvested area placed at 42m ha. Serbian production was reduced further, down by 0.5m to 6.0m t (26% below last season’s record of 8.1m t). At 1.02m ha, harvested area is estimated broadly steady y/y, however yield is forecast at 5.88 t/ha (-27% y/y and 17% below the 5-Y average). Linked to larger production, US exports were lifted by 1.9m to 62.9m t, while ARG up 2m to 38m t.

18 World Cereals Forecasts

International Grains Council World cereals: IGC million tonnes million tonnes 1200 2 400 2289 2169 2195 2 230 2 300 2190 2288 1000 2151 2 200 2091 2213 2058 2187 2 100 2043 2126 2141 800 2139 2045 2 000 1879 2013 1956 1 900 1798 1829 662 650 1812 623 600 1773 598 615 598 599 1863 1 800 1841 553 1777 507 441 1 700 400 417 433 421 1 600

200 1 500 172 180 178 150 149 163 154 140 125 128 134 131 1 400 99 0 1 300 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 est. 2020 2021 f'cast proj. World of which World Production World Consumption Source: IGC September report Ending Stocks 8 major exporters

20 World wheat: IGC

million tonnes million tonnes 500 800 773 783 762 757 761 781 400 740 740 770 732 750 704 718 742 746 736 732 679 717 720 700 300 683 659 701 699 275 279 277 267 259 657 247 650 655 659 227 200 207 198 194 191 191 172 600

100 550 77 74 79 82 68 66 67 69 63 61 50 58 54 0 500 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 est. 2020 2021 f'cast proj. World of which World Production World Consumption Source: IGC September report Ending Stocks 8 major exporters

21 IGC: Wheat production forecast

All wheat million tonnes 180

160

140 137

120

100

80 75

60 46

40 33 32 22 20 20 13

0 EU Russia USA Canada Ukraine Argentina Australia Kazakhstan

Source: IGC September report 2017/2018 2018/2019 2019/2020 2020/2021 2021/2022 22 Summary of the IGC Grain Market Report (GMR 525 of 23/9/2021) Outlook for 2021/22

Wheat production in selected countries (all wheat; million tonnes) 2018/19 2019/20 2020/21 2021/22 m/m change y/y change (estimate) (forecast) (m t)

EU-27 (2020/21) 137.7 155.0 124.5 136.6 -1.0 +9.7% EU-27 + UK to 2019/20 USA 51.3 52.6 49.7 46.2 - -7.1% Canada 32.4 32.7 35.2 21.7 -2.8 -38.3% Russia 71.7 73.6 85.4 75.0 - -12.1% Ukraine 25.1 29.2 25.4 33.0 +1.0 +29.8% Australia 17.6 14.5 33.3 32.0 +1.9 -4.0% China 131.4 133.6 134.3 137.1 +1.1 +2.1% India 99.7 103.6 107.9 109.5 - +1.5% World 732.2 761.3 773.4 780.6 -1.1 +0.9%

23 World durum wheat: IGC

million tonnes million tonnes 10 41 9 39 39 8 39 37 37 37 7 37 36 38 36 35 36 35 6 35 35 34 36 36 6.0 35 35 34 34 35 6 34 5 34 4.9 5.1 34 33 33 33 32 4.4 4 4.1 3.8 4 4 31 3 3.1 2.7 29 2.5 2 2 2.1 1.8 1.8 1.8 1.6 1 1.5 1.4 27 1.1 1.0 1.1 0.7 0.8 0 0.3 25 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 est. 2020 2021 f'cast proj. 4 Major exporters* Stocks of which Canada World Production World Consumption *4 major exporters: Canada, EU, Mexico and USA Source: IGC September report

24 Summary of the IGC Grain Market Report (GMR 525 of 23/9/2021) Outlook for 2021/22

World total grains production was lifted by 5.2m m/m to 2,288.5m t (+3.4% or +75.8m y/y) on larger maize and sorghum harvests, partly offset by reductions for wheat and barley. Total demand for grains is unchanged at 2,288m t (+2.6% or +58m y/y), a new record, incl. 748.6m of food use (+1.6% y/y), 1,043.0m for feeding (+3.1%) and 369.2m for industrial use (+2.7% y/y). Ending stocks increased by 9.6m to 598.8m t (+0.2% y/y).

Wheat: world production is projected at a record 780.6m t (-1.1m m/m; +0.9% or +7.2m t y/y). The outlook decreased from before as increases for AUS, China and UKR were offset by reductions for CAN and the EU in particular.

Harvest progressed rapidly in CAN with poor yields confirmed in many producing regions. Estimated production was reduced further, down by 2.8m to 21.7m t, the smallest since 2007/08. Combining was about 90% complete in RUS, where production is estimated at 75m t with overall yields placed 10% lower y/y. Incorporating latest harvest data, the UKR crop was lifted by 1.0m to 33.0m t. Average yields slightly exceeded earlier expectations in China, therefore the forecast was raised by 1.0m m/m to 137.1m t.

The EU harvest was lowered by 1.0m to an above-average 136.6m t following decreases for DE and FR.

25 Summary of the IGC Grain Market Report (GMR 525 of 23/9/2021) Outlook for 2021/22

Consumption is estimated at 782.6m t (+1.7% y/y), incl. food use at 541.1m (+1.6%) and feed use at 154.4m (+3.3%). Ending stocks are expected to decrease by 2.0m y/y to 276.9m t (-0.7% y/y), incl. 128.1m attributed to China (= y/y; 46.3% of world total). Although stocks are forecast to be the 2nd largest on record, inventories at the 8 major exporters are to decline to a 9-year low of 54.5m t.

Despite elevated prices, buying interest remained strong recently. World trade forecast for 2021/22 (Jul/Jun) was raised by 1.7m to 190.8m t (+0.4% y/y) with RUS being the largest exporter (34.0m; -4.2m y/y), followed by the EU (32.9m; +4.9m y/y). UKR exports are expected to reach a record 23.3m t due to large availabilities and strong shipments at the start of the season. In contrast, CAN exports were reduced to an 11-year low of 17.3m t.

Durum wheat: world production forecast was lowered again, down by 0.3m to 31.9m t (-5.6% y/y), mainly linked to a cut for the CAN harvest, which is now placed at an 11-year low of 3.5m t (-0.5m m/m; -46.1% y/y). The Turkish crop is forecast at 2.9m t only (-15.8%), the least in 13 years, while the EU production was lifted to 7.8m t (+9.3%), incl. 4.3m for ITA (+11.2%). Given tight supplies and high prices, both consumption (33.8m t; -1.7%) and trade (7.0m t; -19.6%) are expected to decrease to 19-year lows.

26 World maize: IGC

million tonnes million tonnes 600 1209 1149 1155 1135 1151 1200 1117 1201 500 1061 1100 1032 1023 1132 1126 1127 1091 1091 400 1031 1000 907 1000 901 972 370 344 900 300 856 325 326 833 886 887 303 298 282 829 849 273 274 800 200 212 199 184 178 700

100 600

58 54 56 49 43 29 25 44 44 35 0 21 31 30 500 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 est. 2020 2021 f'cast proj.

World of which US World Production World Consumption

Source: IGC September report Ending Stocks

27 IGC: maize production forecast

Maizemillion tonnes 400 380

350

300

250

200

150 117

100 68 63 50 39

0 USA Brazil EU Argentine Ukraine

2017/2018 2018/2019 2019/2020 2020/2021 2021/2022 Source: IGC September report

28 Summary of the IGC Grain Market Report (GMR 525 of 23/9/2021) Outlook for 2021/22

Maize production in selected countries (million tonnes)

2018/19 2019/20 2020/21 2021/22 m/m change y/y change (estimate) (forecast) (m t)

EU-27 (2020/21) 67.0 68.1 64.9 68.4 -0.8 +5.3% EU-27 + UK to 2019/20 USA 364.3 346.0 360.3 380.3 +5.6 +5.6% Ukraine 35.8 35.9 30.0 38.5 +1.2 +28.3% Russia 11.4 14.3 13.9 15.2 - +9.6% Brazil 100.0 102.5 86.7 117.4 - +35.4% Argentina 56.9 58.5 60.5 63.3 - +4.7% China 257.3 260.8 260.7 272.8 - +4.6% World 1,131.8 1,126.5 1,127.2 1,209.0 +7.0 +7.3%

29 Summary of the IGC Grain Market Report (GMR 525 of 23/9/2021) Outlook for 2021/22

Maize: world production is forecast at a record 1,209.0m t (+7.3% or +81.8m y/y), driven by strong rebounds in BRA and UKR, as well as a large US crop. Driven by strong demand for feeding, maize consumption is expexted to grow by an above-average rate of 4.3% to 1,201.2m t (+50.0m y/y), incl. feed use at 717.2m (+4.8%) and industrial use at 306.8m (+2.9%). EU demand is forecast at 80.0m t (+3.6m), incl. 59m (+3m y/y) of feed use, while feed use in China is expected to reach a record of 192m t (+6m). Due to increases for US and China, world ending stocks were lifted by 11.2m to 281.5m t (+2.9% y/y), incl. 186.9m attributed to China (-3.6% y/y; 66.4% of total).

Harvesting has started in UKR, where outlooks remain favourable in most regions and yields are expected to be well above average. The forecast was lifted by 1.2m to a record 38.5m t. The Chinese crop is also expected to reach a new peak thanks to ample rainfall, although wet conditions increased risks of additional disease pressure. The US production forecast was raised by 5.6m t m/m following upward revisions both for area and yields. Reflecting hot and dry conditions in BG, HU and RO, the EU forecast was cut by 0.8m m/m to 68.4m t. Plantings were delayed in southern BRA due to rains, which were however much needed. Early sowings have also started in ARG where area is expected to increase by around 2% due to attractive maize prices and good returns. Production is tentatively placed at a record 63.3m t (+4.7%; including on-farm use as well).

Global trade is expected to contract y/y for the first time in 13 years reaching 179.4m t (Jul/Jun; -5.1% y/y). EU imports are forecast at 14.6m t (-4.3%) and Chinese imports at 16.0m t (-44.9%), while UKR exports at 30.9m t (+33.8%).

30 World barley: IGC

million tonnes million tonnes 90 170

80 159 157 160 151 158 152 70 149 148 144 147 153 150 60 145 142 147 147 146 147 137 135 144 144 140 50 135 141 140

40 42 134 130 124 131 30 28 28 29 28 29 120 27 27 26 26 20 23 24 24 18 110 10 10 10 9 8 8 8 7 5 6 6 6 7 0 100 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 est. 2020 2021 f'cast proj. World of which EU World Production World Consumption Ending Stocks Source: IGC September report

31 World oats: IGC

million tonnes million tonnes 9 35

8 30 25 7 24 25 24 24 23 23 23 23 23 22 23 25 6 20 24 24 24 23 23 24 23 23 5 21 22 22 22 20 5 20 4 4.1 15 3.9 4.1 3.6 3 3 3.1 3 10 2.8 2.7 2 2.5 2 2 5 1 1.2 1 0.9 0.8 0.8 0.7 0.7 0.8 0.5 0.4 0.4 0 0.4 0.2 0 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 est. 2020 2021 f'cast proj.

World Canada World Production World Consumption Ending Stocks Ending stocks

Source: IGC September report

32 Summary of the IGC Grain Market Report (GMR 525 of 23/9/2021) Outlook for 2021/22

Barley production in selected countries (million tonnes)

2018/19 2019/20 2020/21 2021/22 m/m change y/y change (estimate) (forecast) (m t)

EU-27 (2020/21) 56.3 63.4 54.8 53.0 -0.3 -3.3% EU-27 + UK to 2019/20 United Kingdom 6.6 8.2 8.1 7.1 - -12.5% Russia 16.7 19.9 20.6 18.1 -1.0 -12.3% Ukraine 7.6 9.5 7.9 10.2 - +28.4% Australia 8.8 10.1 13.1 12.3 +1.0 -6.1% Canada 8.4 10.4 10.7 7.1 -0.9 -33.5% Turkey 7.0 7.6 8.3 5.5 - -33.7% World 139.6 156.9 159.1 147.0 -1.3 -7.6%

33 Summary of the IGC Grain Market Report (GMR 525 of 23/9/2021) Outlook for 2021/22

Barley: world production forecast decreased by 1.3m m/m to 147.0m t (-12m or -7.6% y/y), the smallest in three years. CAN crop was lowered by 0.9m to 7.1m t as harvest results confirmed severe drought damage, while the RUS forecast was cut by 1.0m due to disappointing results in the Central and Volga Federal Districts. On the other hand, projected AUS production increased by 1.0m following slightly higher area estimate and continued favourable growing conditions.

Mostly due to lower feed use (103.2m t; -5.6%), barley consumption is projected at 151.8m t (-3.9% y/y), with industrial use placed at 30.9m (+0.5%). High barley prices and larger maize supplies are expected to reduce demand for barley. Ending stocks are forecast at 24.0m t (-16.7% y/y), including decreases is most major exporters. Due to reduced availabilities in CAN and RUS, world trade is expected to contract by 8.2% from last season’s record to 32.0m t (28.4m for feed and 3.5m for malting). EU exports are forecast at 8.0m t (+0.7m y/y), while Chinese imports seen at 11.4m (-0.6m) and purchases by Saudia A. placed at 6.6m (-0.4m).

Oats: world production estimate was cut by 0.5m m/m to 23.1m t (-2.4m or -9.3% y/y) due to very poor yields reported from CAN. The CAN crop was lowered by 0.4m to an 11-Y low of 2.6m t (-43.6%) and besides the much reduced harvest, lower quality is also a major concern. The EU harvest is placed at 7.8m t (-4.8% y/y) and RUS at 4.1m (-0.7%). Consumption is forecast at 23.3m t (-0.3m m/m; -4.4% y/y), incl. 5.5m of food (+1.5%) and 15.3m of feed use (-5.6%). Stocks are expected to contract by6.0% to 3.1m t, still above the 5-Y ave.

34 Cereals Market News and Prices Market News 1. (30-9-2021) Russia/Belarus

- RUS (AgMin): grain harvest has so far yielded 103.8m t, incl. 73.2m of wheat, 18.0m of barley and 2.2m of maize.

- RUS (IGC referring to IKAR and SovEcon): the area planted with winter wheat is expected to decrease for the 2022 harvest by at least 0.5m ha (was 17.8m ha in 2020/21) due to competition from oilseeds, as well as persisting dryness in some regions.

- RUS (customs): by 23/09 grain exports reached 9.2m t (-25% y/y) in MY 2021/22, inc. 8.0m of wheat (-22%).

- RUS (JRC-MARS): total wheat production is forecast at 74.7m t, incl. 55.2m of winter wheat (-3.6% from the 5-Y ave) and 19.5m spring wheat (-11% from 5-Y ave). Grain maize harvest is expected to reach 16.5m t (+18% on the 5-Y ave), while barley crop is forecast at 16.9m, incl. 3.0m of winter barley (+36% on 5-Y ave) and 13.9m spring barley (21% below the 5-Y ave).

- Belarus (gov’ment): in view of a signifcantly smaller 2021/22 cereals harvest, exports were suspended for wheat, rye and maize for a period of 6 months.

36 Market News 2. (30-9-2021) Russia: export tax on wheat, barley and maize

In USD per tonne pre - 2 June 1-7 September 8-14 September 15-21 September 22-28 September 29/09-5/10

Wheat exp tax 50 EUR / t 39.40 46.50 52.50 50.90 53.50 (≈ USD 60) 7-d ave wheat price n/a 256.40 266.50 275.00 272.80 276.50

Barley 10 EUR / t 27.00 26.10 33.10 31.00 35.30 (≈ USD 12) 7-d ave barley price n/a 223.70 222.40 232.30 229.40 235.50

Maize 25 EUR / t 51.60 51.10 49.00 47.80 46.30 (≈ USD 30) 7-d ave maize price n/a 258.80 258.10 255.00 253.40 251.20

Floating export tax was introduced withouth an end date. It is announced on a weekly basis. Calculation is based on the prices registered by Moscow Exchange (wheat = www.moex.com/ru/index/CRFOB barley = www.moex.com/ru/index/BRFOB maize = www.moex.com/ru/index/CRFOB)

Wheat = 70% of the difference between weekly benchmark export price and USD 200 /t; Barley and maize = USD 185 applied (instead of USD 200) Market News 3. (30-9-2021) Ukraine/Turkey

 - UKR (UkrAgroConsult): with better yields reported during harvest, the consultancy increased its production and export estimates for the 2021/22 season. Total grain & pulses output is forecast at 81m t (well above the 2019/20 record of 75.1m t), incl. wheat at 31.2m and barley at 9.4m. Grain exports may reach 60.5m t, incl. wheat at 22.5m and barley at 5.5m.

 - UKR (AgMin): grain exports reached so far 12.8m t (+13%) in MY 2021/22 (Jul/Jun), incl. 7.7m of wheat, 3.4m of barley and 1.4m of maize. For the entire MY, wheat exports are forecast at 24.4m t (+47%), incl. 14.8m of milling wheat. (AgMin estimates that about 60% of the wheat harvest reached milling quality, similar to last season.)

 - UKR (JRC-MARS): despite a difficult start of the 2020/21 crop year, most winter crops achieved record yields thanks to very favourable conditions during the rest of the season. Record precipitation in summer ensured sufficient soil moisture levels, however delayed winter crop harvests and affected winter wheat quality. The yield outlook remains very positive for the summer crops, incl. 7.65 t/ha for maize (17% above the 5-Y ave). Wheat production is estimated at 32.7m t (26% above 5-Y ave), barley at 9.3m t (11% above 5-Y ave; incl. 4.8m winter barley) and maize is forecast at 41.6m t (35% above 5-Y ave).

 - UKR (AgMin): winter grains sowings for the 2022 harvest are foreast at 7.8m ha, incl. winter wheat at 6.7m (+0.6m ha y/y) and winter barley at 1.0m (+0.5m ha).

 - Turkey: import taxes removed for wheat and other grains, as well as some pulses (chickpeas and lentils) until 31 Dec 2021 in order to stabilize domestic prices following sharp fall of local production due to dry and hot weather.



38 Market News 4. (30-9-2021) USA: Grains export inspections w/e 23/September/2021

Commodity MY 2021/22 MY 2020/21 Change Maize 1 139 580 2 818 589 - 59.6 %

Sorghum 131 808 238 097 - 44.6 %

Soya beans 941 822 5 004 990 - 81.2 %

Wheat 8 001 185 9 253 680 - 13.5 %

Marketing Year = June/May for wheat and September/August for maize, sorghum and soybeans; www.ams.usda.gov/mnreports/wa_gr101.txt

39 Market News 5. (30-9-2021) USA

 USDA Crop Progress report w/e 26 September 2021:

. Crop conditions

. - Maize: 59% good/excellent (61% last year; 65% 5-Y Ave) . - Soya beans: 58% good/excellent (64%; 64%)

. Harvest progress . - Maize: 18% complete (14% last year; 15% 5-Y Ave) . - Soya beans: 16% complete (18%; 13%) Sowings

 - Winter wheat: 33% done (34%; 32%)

40 Market News 6. (30-9-2021) Canada: Outlook for Principle Field Crops in 2021/22 (source: AAFC; crop year = Aug/July)

24-09-2021 2019/20 2020/21 2021/22 f' m/m y/y

Durum prod' (m t) 5.02 6.57 3.55 -0.3 -46.1% exports (m t) 5.27 5.77 3.10 - -46.3% All wheat prod'(m t) 32.67 35.18 21.72 +1.54 -38.3% exports (m t) 24.35 26.41 15.60 +1.50 -40.9%

Barley prod' (m t) 10.38 10.74 7.14 -0.31 -33.5% exports (m t) 3.05 4.57 2.05 - -55.2% Oats prod' (m t) 4.23 4.58 2.58 -0.10 -43.6% exports (m t) 2.62 2.93 1.80 +0.20 -38.5% Canola prod' (m t) 19.91 19.49 12.78 -2.22 -34.4%

Exports (m t) 10.04 10.53 6.50 -0.50 -38.3%

41 Market News 7. (30-9-2021) China China Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates for 2021/22 (IGC)

10 September Forecast (Mt) +/- prev' f'cast (Mt) 2020/21 (Mt) +/- y/y

Maize Production 271.8 - 260.7 +4%

Consumption 290.7 -3.0 282.2 (-4m m/m) +3%

Feed use 187.0 -3.0 180.0 (-2m) +4%

Industrial 82.0 - 80.0 (-2m) +2%

Imports 20.0 - 26.0 (+4m) -23% Soya beans Production 18.7 - 19.6 -5% Consumption 119.1 - 113.3 +5% Imports 102.0 - 98.6 +3%

42 Market news 8. (30-9-2021) Australia – outlook for 2021/22 (source: ABARES – 7 September 2021)

2019/20 2020/21 2021/22 Vs. June y/y

Wheat area (m ha) 9.86 12.89 12.96 -0.1m ha +0.6%

production (m t) 14.48 33.34 32.63 +4.81m t -2.1%

exports (m t) (Oct/Sep) 9.13 23.67 23.00 -2.8%

Barley area (m ha) 5.04 4.42 4.34 +0.09m ha -1.9%

production (m t) 10.13 13.09 12.48 +2.11m t -4.7%

exports (m t) (Nov/Oct) 4.07 8.61 8.35 -3.0%

Canola area (m ha) 2.03 2.45 3.04 +0.07m ha +24.3%

production (m t) 2.30 4.52 5.04 +0.83m t +11.3%

exports (m t) (Nov/Oct) 1.52 3.51 4.02 +14.7%

Oats area (m ha) 0.82 0.95 0.86 -0.02m ha -9.1%

production (m t) 1.14 1.67 1.59 -0.03m t -4.6%

43 Market News 9. (30-9-2021) Australia – 2021/22 outlook www.agriculture.gov.au/abares

 - Outlook for the 2021/22 harvest remains very positive for the winter crops as a result of exceptionally favourable growing conditions in June and July. Production is forecast to be considerably above average, due to record high planted area and yields estimated above long-term trend. Winter crop production is forecast at 54.8m t, only 2% down from last season’s record and +32% on the 10-year average.

 - Wheat: forecast for the 2021/22 harvest was lifted by 4.8m t from the June outlook report to 32.6m t (-2.1% y/y), potentially the 2nd biggest crop ever following last season’s record. Barley production is expected to decrease by 4.7% y/y, yet becoming the 3rd largest crop. Canola (rapeseed) production is forecast at a record of 5.0m t (+11.3% y/y) as area has expanded considerably y/y as producers responded to remunerative prices and excellent planting conditions.

 - Given large supply, wheat exports are expected to remain strong in MY 2021/22 (Oct/Sept) reaching 23.0m t (-2.8% y/y, but 37% above the 10-Y ave), while the value of exports could reach a record given high international prices. Given the outlook for a large crop and reduced domestic demand, barley shipments are expected to remain high at 8.35m t (Nov/Oct; -3.0% y/y). AUS barley is very competitive and traders could find alternative markets (Middle East, Thailand, Vietnam and Japan) following the imposition of prohibitive duties by China on AUS barley in May 2020.

 - Area planted with summer crops (sorghum, cotton, rice, maize) is expected to rise by 24% to 1.29m ha in 2021/22, incl. grain sorghum on 0.53m ha (+3.7%). The area increase is driven by ample supplies of irrigation water, as well as outlook for favourable spring conditions. Production of the summer crops is forecast to rise by 33% to 4.44m t, incl. sorghum up 15.2% to 1.72m t.

44 Market News 10. (30-9-2021) Brazil

CONAB September report: S&D Outlook for 2020/21 (www.conab.gov.br)

- Maize: following additional cut for the yield prospects of the 2nd (safrinha) crop, total maize production was lowered by nearly 1m t m/m. Total area is placed fractionally higher at 19.9m ha (+7.2% y/y), incl. 14.9m ha (+8.6%) for the safrinha crop. The yield estimate for the safrinha crop was reduced to 3.98 t/ha (-27.0%), with total average yield placed at 4.32 t/ha (-22%). While domestic consumption is broadly steady m/m at 70.9m t (+3.2%), exports were reduced further to 22.0m t due to smaller supplies and strong domestic demand.

- Soya beans: production is estimated at a record 135.9m t, fractionally lower m/m. Domestic consumption is unchanged at 50m t m/m, with exports lifted by 0.2m to 83.6m t.

- Wheat: estimated 2021/22 production lowered modestly to 8.2m t, as yield decreased to 3.03 t/ha (+13.8%). Consumption is steady m/m at 12.3m t (+3.7% y/y), with imports placed at 6.0m t (≈ y/y). 9-9-2021 Forecast +/- previous Previous year +/- y/y f'cast 2021/22 Wheat prod (m t) 8.2 -0.4 6.2 +30.8% Soya beans prod (m t) 135.9 -0.1 124.8 +8.9% Maize prod (m t) 85.7 -0.9 102.6 -16.4% Maize 1st crop 24.7 -0.2 25.7 -3.7% Maize 2nd crop 59.5 -0.9 75.1 -20.8% Maize 3rd crop 1.5 +0.1 1.8 -16.8% Maize exports 22.0 -1.5 34.9 -37.0%

45 Market News 11. (30-9-2021)

• - FAO: the FAO Food Price Index (FFPI) rebounded considerably in August 2021, up 3.9 points (+3.1% m/m) to an average 127.4 points (+31.5 points or +32.9% y/y). The FAO Cereal Price Index gained 4.3 points m/m averaging 129.8 points in August (+31.1% y/y). The monthly increase was mainly linked to higher wheat prices (+8.8% m/m) following reduced harvest forecasts for some major exporting countries. Except for barley, prices of other cereals declined in Aug.

• - India (government): the Minimum Support Prices were raised for the winter-sown crops of the 2022/23 harvest: wheat fixed at INR 2,105 per 100 kg (+2% y/y; ≈ EUR 243 per tonne), barley at INR 1,635 (+2%; EUR 189/t) and rapeseed at INR 5,050 (+9%; EUR 584/t).

• - China (customs): maize imports during Jan-Aug 2021 reached 21.4m t (+284% y/y), wheat at 7.0m t (+40%) and barley at 7.1m t (+115%).

• - Serbia (Statistical Office): Wheat production has reached 3.5m t (=23% y/y) in 2021/22 and maize harvest is estimated at 6.2m t (-21%), with final harvest results to be published in March next year.

46 Market News 12. (30-9-2021)

• - ARG (BAGE-23/9/2021): Maize sowings were finished on 8.5% of the forecast area (7.1m ha; +0.5m ha y/y) with production tentatively seen at 55.0m t (+9% y/y). Wheat plantings were completed with the area estimated at 6.6m ha (+0.1m ha y/y) for the 2021/22 harvest. With broadly favourable crop conditions, wheat production is projected at 19.2m t (+2.2m t y/y).

• - BRA (Soybean and Corn Advisor): according to the maize producers’ association (Abramilho) the first maize crop could reach about 32m t in 2021/22 due to expanded area in the key growing regions of the South and South-east.

• - BRA: CONAB released its first, preliminary estimates for the forthcoming 2021/22 season. Soya bean production is projected at 141.3m t (+3.9% y/y; within a range of 133.8m – 147.0m) with area expanding to 39.9m ha (+3.6%), while the maize crop is forecast at 115.9m t (+33.8%; within a range of 106.5m – 118.3m) with total maize area increasing to 20.6m ha (+3.9%). Boosted by continued strong demand for feed use and ethanol production, domestic demand is projected increasing by 3.9% to 73.7m t, while exports to reach 39m t, up 66% from the drought-hit 20/21 season.

• - BRA (USDA attaché report): ethanol production is estimated at 30.43 billion liters for 2021, 13% below the 35.08 billion liters produced in 2020. The annual drop is mainly due to a smaller sugar cane harvest and the sugar mills preference for producing sugar instead of ethanol. In contrast, maize usage for ethanol production continues increasing and production is estimated at 3.39 billion liters (+40% from the 2.43 billion liters of 2020). In 2021 about 8.13m t of maize would be used for ethanol production, up 2.30m t y/y. (According to the report on average 1 tonne of maize can produce 417 liters of ethanol, 313 kg of DDGS and 18 liters of maize oil.) Currently 19 plants produce ethanol from maize: 7 from maize only and 12 flex-plants (both maize and cane).

47 World common wheat prices (USD/t)

400 380 360

340 Wheat - US HRW Gulf - USD 353 320 Wheat - US SRW Gulf - USD 310 300 Wheat - France Class 1 Rouen - USD 308 280 Wheat - Russia Milling - USD 304 Wheat - Argentina Trigo Up River - USD 296 260 Wheat - Ukraine Feed - USD 287

240 USD/t 220 200 180 160 140 120

Source: IGC Latest prices referring to (if not stated otherwise):24/09/2021

48 World maize and barley prices (USD/t)

370

350

330 Barley - France Rouen Feed - USD 281

310 Maize - US 3YC Gulf - USD 279 Barley - Black Sea feed FOB - USD 264 290 Maize - Brazil Feed Paranagua - USD 263 270 Maize - Ukraine Feed - USD 262

250 Maize - Argentina Feed Up River - USD 245 USD/t 230

210

190

170

150

130

Source: IGC Latest prices referring to (if not stated otherwise): 24/09/2021

49 CME wheat: open interest and net position of traders

Last value from: 2021-09-21 0.8 100 Open Interest Managed money - Net position

0.7 50

0.6

0

0.5 tonnes) metric

136 136 metric metric tonnes)

0.4 - 50 136 136

0.3 - 100

0.2

- 150

0.1 Millions Millions of ( contracts

WHEAT-SRW - CHICAGO BOARD OF TRADE contracts (of Thousandsof 0.0 - 200

50 US CME SRW wheat futures

350 Chicago (CME) SRW futures Chicago (CME) SRW futures 150 300 290 Wheat SRW MAY 2022 Last 14 days

300 290 tonnes)

270 tonnes)

280 136 136

136 136 271 250 270 250 270 100 266

200 260 $/t contractsof 230

contractsof 250 1000 1000

150 1000 210

240 $/t 50 230 100 190 220 50 170

210 Daily traded volume ( volume traded Daily Source: Refinitiv Eikon ( volume traded Daily 0 150 0 200 01/19 07/19 01/20 07/20 01/21 07/21 13/09/21 17/09/21 21/09/21

Daily volume Wheat SRW DEC 2021 Wheat SRW MAR 2022 Wheat SRW MAY 2022 51 US CME HRW wheat futures

Chicago (CME) HRW futures Chicago (CME) HRW futures 160 290 35 275 Last 14 days 140 270

270 tonnes) tonnes) 30 269

267 136 136 120 250 136 265 25 264 100 230 260

20

$/t

contractsof contractsof

80 210 255

$/t 1000 1000 1000 1000 15 60 190 250

10 40 170 245

5

20 150 240 Daily traded volume ( volume traded Daily Source: Refinitiv Eikon ( volume traded Daily 0 130 0 235 01/19 07/19 01/20 07/20 01/21 07/21 13/09/21 17/09/21 21/09/21

Daily volume Wheat DEC 2021 Wheat MAR 2022 Wheat MAY 2022

52 EU Milling Wheat Futures

180 Euronext - NYSE (MATIF, Paris) milling wheat futures 290 Euronext - NYSE (MATIF, Paris) milling wheat futures Wheat160 MAY 2022 80 295

tonnes) 270

140 70 Last 14 days

50

tonnes) of

50 275 120 250 60

100 50 255 253 contracts 230 €/t 247

contractsof 244

1000 1000 80 40 235

€ /t

210 1000 60 30 215 190 40 20

170 195

20 10 Daily traded volume ( volume traded Daily

Source: Refinitiv Eikon ( volume traded Daily 0 150 0 175 01/19 07/19 01/20 07/20 01/21 07/21 10/09/21 13/09/21 16/09/21 19/09/21 22/09/21

Daily volume Wheat DEC 2021 Wheat MAR 2022 Wheat MAY 2022

53 CME maize: open interest and positions of traders

Last value: 2021-09-21 3.0 500 Open Interest Managed money - Net position 400 2.5 300

2.0 200

metric tonnes) metric 127 127 metric metric tonnes) 100

1.5 127 127 0

1.0 - 100

- 200 0.5

- 300 Millions Millions of ( contracts

CORN - CHICAGO BOARD OF TRADE contracts (of Thousandsof 0.0 - 400

54 CME maize futures

Chicago (CME) Maize futures Chicago (CME) Maize futures 1 200 300 205 280 Last 14 days

tonnes) 260 1 000 tonnes) 200

250 198 127 127 240 127 195 196 800 200 194 220

190

$/t contractsof 200 contractsof

600 150 1000 1000 180 1000 185

400 160 100 180$/t 140 50 200 175

120 Daily traded volume ( volume traded Daily Source: Refinitiv Eikon ( volume traded Daily 0 100 0 170 01/19 07/19 01/20 07/20 01/21 07/21 13/09/21 17/09/21 21/09/21

Daily volume Maize DEC 2021 Maize MAR 2022 Maize MAY 2022

55 EU maize futures

350 Euronext - NYSE (MATIF, Paris) maize futures Euronext - NYSE (MATIF, Paris) maize futures Maize MAR 2022 4 230 6 Last 14 days 224 tonnes) 300

3 220 224 tonnes)

50 224

of 50 210 3 250

4 200

€

contracts €/t

2 /t contractsof

1000 1000 190

200 1000 2 180 2 1 170 150

1 160 Daily traded volume ( volume traded Daily

Source: Refinitiv Eikon ( volume traded Daily 0 100 0 150 01/19 07/19 01/20 07/20 01/21 07/21 10/09/21 13/09/21 16/09/21 19/09/21 22/09/21 Daily volume Maize NOV 2021 Maize JAN 2022 Maize MAR 2022

56 Cereals Trade Selected cereals trade for the past 5 weeks

Country Crop Quantity (t) Price Origins Delivery ($/t) Algeria wheat ≈ 460-490 000 353.0-356.6 (c&f) optional Sep/Oct

Algeria durum 300-500 000 620-640 (c&f) Likely CAN/MEX Nov

Egypt wheat 180 000 304.3-308.5 (fob) EU (RO):120 000 Oct Freight: 29.6-36.1 UKR: 60 000 Egypt wheat 300 000 310.2-316.5 (fob) - UKR: 240 000 Oct/Nov Freight: 27.3-33.6 - RUS: 60 000 Saudi Arabia wheat 382 000 Ave 355.9 (c&f) - optional Nov

Pakistan wheat 405 000 369.5 (c&f) - optional Oct/Nov

Pakistan wheat 575 000 383.5 (c&f) - optional Nov/Dec

58 EU* cereals trade 2021/22, situation at 12 Sep 2021 (updated on 27/09/2021) ● Imports: 4 million tonnes (5 million tonnes last year; 6 million tonnes two years ago)  0.48 million tonnes soft wheat -26% y/y  0.27 million tonnes durum wheat -58% y/y  3.04 million tonnes maize -16% y/y  193 thousand tonnes barley +335% y/y

● Exports: 9.5 million tonnes (6.7 million tonnes last year; 9.1 million tonnes two years ago)  6.25 million tonnes soft wheat +53% y/y  2.37 million tonnes barley +25% y/y  133 thousand tonnes durum wheat +39% y/y  0.27 million tonnes maize +214% y/y

* The United Kingdom is no longer a Member State of the European Union, however until the end of the transition period it was still a part of the EU Customs Union. Due to the absence of intra-trade data in the surveillance system, the totals of the EU trade data therefore also include the UK data until 31/12/2020. The data as of 1/1/2021 is therefore not comparable with the data until 31/12/2020.

Source: Taxud Surveillance 59 Source: AMIS - Market Monitor 60 Conclusions

. Wheat prices edged higher, supported by strong buying interest

. Except for UKR, maize prices increased modestly

. Hurricane damages disrupted US grain exports in September

. Turkey suspended import tariffs on grains and pulses

. USDA raised both wheat and maize production estimates for 2021/22

. IGC lifted maize but slightly lowered wheat production estimates for 2021/22

. Benchmark world wheat prices are quoted in a narrow range of USD 305-310/t

. On fob basis ARG is the cheapest origin for maize

61 Thank you

Market data the for cereals, oilseeds and protein crops are available at the EU Crops Market Observatory https://ec.europa.eu/agriculture/market- observatory/crops

© European Union 2020

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