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Cereals Market Situation Cereals market situation Committee for the Common Organisation of Agricultural Markets 30 September 2021 Exchange Rates Euro – US Dollar exchange rate 1.30 24/09/2021: 1 EUR = 1,17 USD 1.21 1.25 From the last Committee 02/01/2017 1.20 1.0465 +12% 1.20 1.19 1.15 1.18 1.1767 1.10 1.17 1.1719 1.05 1.16 Exchange rate: Spot, ECB reference - U.S. Dollar/Euro 1.15 1.00 3 Euro and US Dollar – Russian Rouble exchange rate 100 24/09/2021: 1 EUR = 85,07 RUB; 1 USD = 72,6 RUB 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 Exchange rate: Spot, Refinitiv Eikon - RUS Ruble/Euro Exchange rate: Spot, Refinitiv Eikon - RUS Ruble/U.S. Dollar 20 07/14 01/15 07/15 01/16 07/16 01/17 07/17 01/18 07/18 01/19 07/19 01/20 07/20 01/21 07/21 4 Euro and US Dollar - Ukraine Hryvnia exchange rate 45 24/09/2021: 1 EUR = 31,46 UAH; 1 USD = 26,7 UAH 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 Exchange rate: Spot, Refinitiv Eikon - UKR Hryvnia/Euro Exchange rate: Spot, Refinitiv Eikon - UKR Hryvnia/U.S. Dollar 5 07/14 01/15 07/15 01/16 07/16 01/17 07/17 01/18 07/18 01/19 07/19 01/20 07/20 01/21 07/21 5 Euro – Argentine Peso Euro – Brazilian Real exchange rate exchange rate 120.0 8.0 110.0 24/09/2021 1 EUR = 115.46 ARS 100.0 7.0 24/09/2021: 1 EUR = 6,23 BRL 90.0 6.0 80.0 70.0 5.0 60.0 50.0 4.0 40.0 3.0 30.0 20.0 2.0 10.0 Exchange rate: Refinitiv Eikon FX cross rate Argentinian peso/Euro Exchange rate: Spot, ECB reference - Brazilian Real/Euro 0.0 1.0 01/14 07/14 01/15 07/15 01/16 07/16 01/17 07/17 01/18 07/18 01/19 07/19 01/20 07/20 01/21 07/21 01/14 07/14 01/15 07/15 01/16 07/16 01/17 07/17 01/18 07/18 01/19 07/19 01/20 07/20 01/21 07/21 Crude oil price (USD/barrel) 140 24/09/2021: 78 120 100 80 60 40 20 Source: Refinitiv Eikon 0 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 Crude oil futures price ($ per barrel), 1 month forw ard (FOB) Brent blend (North sea) - UK 7 Baltic Dry Index 5000 4500 24/09/2021: 4644 4000 3500 3000 2500 2000 1500 1000 500 Source: Refinitiv Eikon 0 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 Baltic Dry Index 8 World Cereals Forecasts USDA World wheat: USDA million tonnes million tonnes 600 781 790 800 763 764 500 756 780 738 735 730 776 750 717 739 742 748 400 699 680 731 700 705 711 655 697 698 300 298 650 651 284 283 293 283 660 262 244 200 222 199 199 197 600 179 100 550 75 70 65 64 72 72 69 51 54 61 61 53 0 500 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 est. proj. World Ending Stocks of which 8 major exporters World Production Source: USDA September report World Consumption 10 USDA: Wheat production forecast million tonnes 160 140 139 120 100 80 73 60 46 40 33 32 23 20 20 13 0 European Russia USA Canada Ukraine Australia Kazakhstan Argentina Union 2017 2018 2019 2020 est. 2021 proj. Source: USDA September report 11 USDA 2021/22 Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE – 616 of 10 September 2021) Wheat production forecasts in selected countries (all wheat; million tonnes) 2021/22 Share of total 2020/21 m/m change (m t) y/y change (%) EU-27 139.0 17.8% 125.9 +0.4 +10.4% USA 46.2 5.9% 49.7 - -7.1% Canada 23.0 2.9% 35.2 -1.0 -34.6% Russia 72.5 9.3% 85.4 - -15.1% Ukraine 33.0 4.2% 25.4 - +29.8% Australia 31.5 4.0% 33.0 +1.5 -4.5% Argentina 20.0 2.6% 17.7 -0.5 +13.4% China 136.9 17.5% 134.3 +0.9 +2.0% India 109.5 14.0% 107.9 +1.5 +1.5% World 780.3 100.0% 775.8 +3.4 +0.6% 12 Wheat import forecasts for selected countries and regions 2018/19 2019/20 2020/21 2021/22* Algeria 7.515 7.145 7.519 (+0.1m m/m) 7.150 Egypt 12.354 12.811 12.149 (-0.35m) 13.000 Morocco 3.724 4.879 5.191 (-0.2m) 4.500 North Africa 26.956 27.991 28.164 (-0.4m) 27.950 Sub-Saharan Africa 22.571 26.953 27.081 (+0.33m) 26.850 Saudi Arabia 2.902 3.652 2.816 (-0.2m) 3.200 Vietnam 3.500 3.570 3.900 3.650 Indonesia 10.934 10.586 10.350 (+0.15m) 10.400 SE Asia 27.753 27.557 26.393 (+0.1m) 26.700 China 3.145 5.376 10.617 10.000 Source: USDA (data in million tonnes, incl. flour, July/June); *forecast North Africa = Algeria, Egypt, Libya, Morocco and Tunisia South East Asia = Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Thailand and Vietnam 13 USDA 2021/22 Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE – 616 of 10 September 2021) Wheat: world production is forecast at a record 780.3m t (+3.4m t m/m; +4.5m or +0.6% y/y). The outlook was raised on further improved prospects in AUS, and larger crops in China and India in particular. Global consumption increased by 3.0m m/m to 789.6m t (+1.1%), incl. feed use up 1.9m to 159.2m t (+1.0%). Chinese total demand edged higher 1m to 149m t (-0.7% y/y), with feed use placed at 36m t (+1m m/m; -10% y/y). Ending stocks increased by 4.2m to 283.2m t (-3.2% y/y), mostly linked to upward revision of the beginning stocks. The CAN crop was reduced further following the publication of the estimates of Statistics Canada. While the harvested area was maintained at 9.2m ha (-8.2% y/y), the yields were lowered to 2.50 t/ha (-28.8% y/y; -27% from 5- Y average). The harvest has yielded a record 3.2m t in Serbia (+18.5% y/y), where area (0.6m ha) was in line with previous seasons, however yield increased to 5.33 t/ha reflecting favourable conditions. India harvested a 5th consecutive record crop, the monthly increase is based on updated official estimates. Chinese production was raised on larger area (23.8m ha; +1.8%) estimated by China. The AUS crop forecast increased again, up by 1.5m to 31.5mt, potentially the third largest on record, as abundant rainfall and favourable conditions further improved yield prospects. Production outlook was cut by 0.5m to 20m t for ARG, still a new peak, as dry conditions in western and northern growing regions are expected to limit yield potential. Good rains are necessary in Sept-Oct in order to maintain yields. World exports are now placed at 199.7m t (+0.5% y/y) with the EU and RUS expected to be the largest exporters with 35.0m t each, followed by the US (23.8m), UKR (23.5m) and AUS (23m). 14 World maize: USDA million tonnes million tonnes 600 1198 1250 1145 1135 500 1123 1137 1090 1187 1150 1057 1026 1125 1117 400 1013 1119 1050 1084 1080 909 898 981 351 950 300 850 968 342 949 311 321 306 298 279 286 850 849 883 200 865 214 750 100 145 115 123 650 58 56 44 44 54 49 29 25 31 30 36 0 21 550 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 est. proj. World of which US World Production World Consumption Source: USDA September report Ending Stocks 15 USDA: maize production forecast million tonnes 400.0 381 350.0 300.0 250.0 200.0 150.0 118 100.0 66 53 50.0 39 0.0 USA Brazil European Union Ukraine Argentine 2017 2018 2019 2020 est. 2021 proj. Source: USDA September report 16 USDA 2021/22 Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE – 616 of 10 September 2021) Maize production forecasts in selected countries (million tonnes) 2021/22 Share of total 2020/21 m/m change (m t) y/y change (%) EU-27 65.5 5.5% 64.5 - +1.6% USA 380.9 31.8% 360.3 +6.3 +5.7% Ukraine 39.0 3.3% 30.3 - +28.7% Russia 15.5 1.3% 13.9 -1.0 +11.7% Brazil 118.0 9.9% 86.0 (-1.0m m/m) - +37.2% Argentina 53.0 4.4% 50.0 (+1.5m) +2.0 +6.0% China 273.0 22.8% 260.7 +5.0 +4.7% South Africa 17.0 1.4% 17.0 - +0.0% World 1,197.8 100% 1,117.1 (+1.7m) +11.7 +7.2% 17 USDA 2021/22 Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE – 616 of 10 September 2021) Maize: world production was lifted by nearly 12m to 1,197.8m t (+7.2% or +80.7m t y/y), as increases for ARG, China and the US have largely exceeded smaller cuts for RUS and Serbia.
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