00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 Policy & Government Digital Gerrymandering Near-future pessimistic scenario Electoral districts have long been shaped and manipulated to the benefit or disadvantage of certain political parties, and as network connectivity becomes a major factor affecting citizens’ quality of life, access to resources, and even the ability to vote, the practice of gerrymandering is translated to the digital realm. Building on the tactics of traditional gerrymandering, some districts are “packed”— incumbent politicians strategically place high-speed internet in a select few districts to consolidate constitu- ents of the opposing party in fewer locales, minimizing their presence in contested districts and thus weakening their ability to sway elections. Other districts, where constituents of the opposing are already concentrated, are “cracked”—incumbent politicians throttle connectivity or undermine the installation and maintenance of network infrastructure in order to disperse their opponents’ vot- ers, diluting their electoral impact. No politician will give up the opportunity to gain an advantage over their rivals, and weaponizing connectivity is a clever (if sinister) way to do just that. Scenarios24 © 2021 Future Today Institute 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 Policy & Government Watch Closely Informs Strategy Act Now 2ND YEAR ON THE LIST Techno-Nationalism KEY INSIGHT EXAMPLES DISRUPTIVE IMPACT EMERGING PLAYERS A great decoupling is underway, as the • U.S. Department of State In the digital age, a China’s new Foreign Investment Law U.S. and Chinese tech sectors are cleaved imposes strict rules for vetting foreign • Committee on Foreign Investment in nation’s technology apart by national governments. What be- investments on national security con- the United States gan as a rift in the semiconductor, cloud, cerns. Widely seen as retaliation for the capabilities are inex- • China’s Ministry of Commerce 5G, AI, and biotech industries has bled Trump administration’s aggressive black- tricably linked to its into other sectors, deepening existing listing of Chinese companies, the law’s • China’s National Development and economic prosperity, business and economic divides. In the intent resembles that of the Committee Reform Commission national security, and past year, the COVID-19 pandemic only on Foreign Investment in the United • China’s Foreign Investment Law further magnified the ideological differ- States, which wielded great power under Technology shapes the global balance of power. social stability. Tech- ences in political freedoms and human Trump and cut Chinese investment from nology shapes the ways rights, wealth distribution, and the role U.S. businesses. Companies must decide of the state in everyday life. whether to remove supply chains from the countries relate to China and how to safeguard company one another, and it in- and consumer data if it is housed on fluences the global bal- Chinese servers. Brands must weigh the marketing value of a viral TikTok video ance of power. with the risk that accompanies the plat- form’s strong Chinese Communist Party ties. Meanwhile, WeChat and Huawei increase China’s influence around the world. As the globe’s two largest econo- mies drift apart, companies must navi- gate business interests and relationships with lawmakers. 25 © 2021 Future Today Institute 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 Policy & Government Watch Closely Informs Strategy Act Now 5TH YEAR ON THE LIST Splinternets KEY INSIGHT EXAMPLES DISRUPTIVE IMPACT EMERGING PLAYERS Nation-scale internet censorship is most The playbook for governments dealing • Freedom House The founding prom- closely associated with China’s “great fire- with social unrest increasingly includes • Amnesty International ise of the digital world wall.” The Chinese government aggres- trying to disrupt the digital tools activists sively monitors the internet and removes • Access Now use to organize. If it becomes clear that was broad connectiv- information that doesn’t meet its political leaders can follow that playbook with im- ity where information standards. At times of political unrest, as during widespread riots in Xinjiang in punity, look for it to be increasingly ad- could flow freely. But 2009, China has completely shut down opted by democratic governments. Early as some governments access to the internet. China’s leadership this year, Myanmar’s military shut down believes its model contributes to stabili- the internet as thousands of citizens tried take steps to filter (or ty—and is open to exporting that approach to organize a rally against the coup that completely block) ac- to the rest of the world: “We should had taken over the government. Even respect the right of individual countries to VPNs couldn’t bypass the blackout. India cess to the internet and independently choose their own path of shut down phone and internet services subscription models cyber-development,” said Chinese Presi- to protesters several times in 2020, and dent Xi Jinping at China’s second World instituted new bans in February to de-es- make wealth a pre- Internet Conference in 2015. Splinternets calate protests. requisite for access to aren’t just the product of blocking free ac- cess to the internet; sometimes it’s enough reliable information, to just increase the barriers to finding re- we’re headed toward a liable information. That can be a technical roadblock—as in a censorship regime that fragmented future with doesn’t remove websites, but knows the A military junta shut down Myanmar’s internet average user won’t have the knowledge or in 2021. “splinternets” rather time to connect through a virtual private than a single world network (VPN) to reach unfiltered infor- wide web. mation—or a financial one. 26 © 2021 Future Today Institute 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 Policy & Government Watch Closely Informs Strategy Act Now 1ST YEAR ON THE LIST Vaccine Nationalism KEY INSIGHT EXAMPLES DISRUPTIVE IMPACT EMERGING PLAYERS In 2020, wealthy nations pre-ordered • World Health Organization While options for effec- At a virtual meeting of the World Eco- vaccine doses from companies within nomic Forum in January 2021, South Af- • Covax tive COVID-19 vaccines their preferred trading blocs, and with rican President Cyril Ramaphosa pleaded emerged by late 2020, production unable to keep up with with wealthy nations to share their demand, that left dozens of developing doses. As he gave his speech, a dangerous capacity met only a economies without a means to protect coronavirus mutation known as 501Y. fraction of the global their citizens. By the middle of January V2 was spreading: It seemed to be more demand. Weak coop- 2021, only 25 doses of the vaccine had transmissible, and possibly more resistant been administered in emerging markets. to antibody therapies. And it emerged We risk cleaving our eration between busi- (That’s not a typo.) In wealthy nations, in South Africa. We risk splitting our countries, and our nesses and countries 39 million had been administered. Those countries, and our communities, into 25 doses were Russia’s Sputnik vaccine, biological haves and have-nots. Covax, communities, into caused an imbalance and they were given to people in Guinea. a vaccine sharing fund, began offering biological haves and over which citizens got its first doses in February, but it still access to the vaccine. had to compete with nations such as the have-nots. U.K. and U.S. that could afford higher prices to secure what limited supplies were available. The director-general of the World Health Organization warned of a “catastrophic moral failure” if rich nations continued to hoard doses. A rise in vaccine nationalism resulted in poorer nations being unable to secure doses. 27 © 2021 Future Today Institute 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 Policy & Government Watch Closely Informs Strategy Act Now 1ST YEAR ON THE LIST Vaccine Passports KEY INSIGHT EXAMPLES DISRUPTIVE IMPACT EMERGING PLAYERS Restaurants, sports arenas, entertain- • Linux Foundation Public Health Different countries be- Several vaccine passport systems are ment facilities, and tourist destinations underway. The Geneva-based Common • COVID-19 Credentials Initiative gan requiring proof of continue to bleed money with Covid Trust Network, a project supported by • Clear a COVID-19 vaccine lockdowns; tourism-dependent countries the World Economic Forum, devel- are understandably eager to reopen their oped a secure mobile app that lets users • CommonPass at borders in 2021. Big borders. Several countries, including upload official Covid test results and • IBM tech companies are Romania, Cyprus, and Seychelles, lifted proof of vaccination. The app generates • United Nations World working to build digital quarantine restrictions for travelers with a QR code with a health certificate to be proof of inoculation. The United Nations shown to authorities without revealing Tourism Organization identification systems World Tourism Organization called for personal information. Partners include that function as vac- the global adoption of vaccination pass- U.S. health systems and several airlines ports using a single standard, not unlike (United Airlines, JetBlue, Lufthansa, cine passports. traditional passports that allow people to Swiss International Air Lines, Cathay travel between borders. Pacific, Virgin Atlantic). IBM developed the Digital Health Pass, an adaptation of a digital wallet. Companies can customize the criteria required for entry (proof of vaccination,