Digital Gerrymandering 24

00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 Policy & Government

Digital Gerrymandering

Near-future pessimistic scenario Electoral districts have long been shaped and manipulated to the benefit or disadvantage of certain political parties, and as network connectivity becomes a major factor affecting citizens’ quality of life, access to resources, and even the ability to vote, the practice of gerrymandering is translated to the digital realm. Building on the tactics of traditional gerrymandering, some districts are “packed”— incumbent politicians strategically place high-speed internet in a select few districts to consolidate constituents of the opposing party in fewer locales, minimizing their presence in contested districts and thus weakening their ability to sway elections. Other districts, where constituents of the opposing are already concentrated, are “cracked”—incumbent politicians throttle connectivity or undermine the installation and maintenance of network infrastructure in order to disperse their opponents’ vot- ers, diluting their electoral impact. No politician will give up the opportunity to gain an advantage over their rivals, and weaponizing connectivity is a clever (if sinister) way to do just that.

2ND YEAR ON THE LIST Techno-Nationalism

KEY INSIGHT EXAMPLES DISRUPTIVE IMPACT EMERGING PLAYERS A great decoupling is underway, as the • U.S. Department of State In the digital age, a China’s new Foreign Investment Law U.S. and Chinese tech sectors are cleaved imposes strict rules for vetting foreign • Committee on Foreign Investment in nation’s technology apart by national governments. What be- investments on national security con- the United States gan as a rift in the semiconductor, cloud, cerns. Widely seen as retaliation for the capabilities are inex- • China’s Ministry of Commerce 5G, AI, and biotech industries has bled Trump administration’s aggressive black- tricably linked to its into other sectors, deepening existing listing of Chinese companies, the law’s • China’s National Development and economic prosperity, business and economic divides. In the intent resembles that of the Committee Reform Commission national security, and past year, the COVID-19 pandemic only on Foreign Investment in the United • China’s Foreign Investment Law further magnified the ideological differ- States, which wielded great power under Technology shapes the global balance of power. social stability. Tech- ences in political freedoms and human Trump and cut Chinese investment from nology shapes the ways rights, wealth distribution, and the role U.S. businesses. Companies must decide of the state in everyday life. whether to remove supply chains from the countries relate to China and how to safeguard company one another, and it in- and consumer data if it is housed on fluences the global bal- Chinese servers. Brands must weigh the marketing value of a viral TikTok video ance of power. with the risk that accompanies the platform’s strong Chinese Communist Party ties. Meanwhile, WeChat and Huawei increase China’s influence around the world. As the globe’s two largest economies drift apart, companies must navi- gate business interests and relationships with lawmakers.

5TH YEAR ON THE LIST Splinternets

KEY INSIGHT EXAMPLES DISRUPTIVE IMPACT EMERGING PLAYERS Nation-scale internet censorship is most The playbook for governments dealing • Freedom House The founding prom- closely associated with China’s “great fire- with social unrest increasingly includes • Amnesty International ise of the digital world wall.” The Chinese government aggres- trying to disrupt the digital tools activists sively monitors the internet and removes • Access Now use to organize. If it becomes clear that was broad connectiv- information that doesn’t meet its political leaders can follow that playbook with im- ity where information standards. At times of political unrest, as during widespread riots in Xinjiang in punity, look for it to be increasingly ad- could flow freely. But 2009, China has completely shut down opted by democratic governments. Early as some governments access to the internet. China’s leadership this year, Myanmar’s military shut down believes its model contributes to stabili- the internet as thousands of citizens tried take steps to filter (or ty—and is open to exporting that approach to organize a rally against the coup that completely block) ac- to the rest of the world: “We should had taken over the government. Even respect the right of individual countries to VPNs couldn’t bypass the blackout. India cess to the internet and independently choose their own path of shut down phone and internet services subscription models cyber-development,” said Chinese Presi- to protesters several times in 2020, and dent Xi Jinping at China’s second World instituted new bans in February to de-es- make wealth a pre- Internet Conference in 2015. Splinternets calate protests. requisite for access to aren’t just the product of blocking free access to the internet; sometimes it’s enough reliable information, to just increase the barriers to finding re- we’re headed toward a liable information. That can be a technical roadblock—as in a censorship regime that fragmented future with doesn’t remove websites, but knows the A military junta shut down Myanmar’s internet average user won’t have the knowledge or in 2021. “splinternets” rather time to connect through a virtual private than a single world network (VPN) to reach unfiltered infor- wide web. mation—or a financial one. 26 © 2021 Future Today Institute 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 Policy & Government Watch Closely Informs Strategy Act Now

1ST YEAR ON THE LIST Vaccine Nationalism

KEY INSIGHT EXAMPLES DISRUPTIVE IMPACT EMERGING PLAYERS In 2020, wealthy nations pre-ordered • World Health Organization While options for effec- At a virtual meeting of the World Eco- vaccine doses from companies within nomic Forum in January 2021, South Af- • Covax tive COVID-19 vaccines their preferred trading blocs, and with rican President Cyril Ramaphosa pleaded emerged by late 2020, production unable to keep up with with wealthy nations to share their demand, that left dozens of developing doses. As he gave his speech, a dangerous capacity met only a economies without a means to protect coronavirus mutation known as 501Y. fraction of the global their citizens. By the middle of January V2 was spreading: It seemed to be more demand. Weak coop- 2021, only 25 doses of the vaccine had transmissible, and possibly more resistant been administered in emerging markets. to antibody therapies. And it emerged We risk cleaving our eration between busi- (That’s not a typo.) In wealthy nations, in South Africa. We risk splitting our countries, and our nesses and countries 39 million had been administered. Those countries, and our communities, into 25 doses were Russia’s Sputnik vaccine, biological haves and have-nots. Covax, communities, into caused an imbalance and they were given to people in Guinea. a vaccine sharing fund, began offering biological haves and over which citizens got its first doses in February, but it still access to the vaccine. had to compete with nations such as the have-nots. U.K. and U.S. that could afford higher prices to secure what limited supplies were available. The director-general of the World Health Organization warned of a “catastrophic moral failure” if rich nations continued to hoard doses. A rise in vaccine nationalism resulted in poorer nations being unable to secure doses.

1ST YEAR ON THE LIST Vaccine Passports

KEY INSIGHT EXAMPLES DISRUPTIVE IMPACT EMERGING PLAYERS Restaurants, sports arenas, entertain- • Linux Foundation Public Health Different countries be- Several vaccine passport systems are ment facilities, and tourist destinations underway. The Geneva-based Common • COVID-19 Credentials Initiative gan requiring proof of continue to bleed money with Covid Trust Network, a project supported by • Clear a COVID-19 vaccine lockdowns; tourism-dependent countries the World Economic Forum, devel- are understandably eager to reopen their oped a secure mobile app that lets users • CommonPass at borders in 2021. Big borders. Several countries, including upload official Covid test results and • IBM tech companies are Romania, Cyprus, and Seychelles, lifted proof of vaccination. The app generates • United Nations World working to build digital quarantine restrictions for travelers with a QR code with a health certificate to be proof of inoculation. The United Nations shown to authorities without revealing Tourism Organization identification systems World Tourism Organization called for personal information. Partners include that function as vac- the global adoption of vaccination pass- U.S. health systems and several airlines ports using a single standard, not unlike (United Airlines, JetBlue, Lufthansa, cine passports. traditional passports that allow people to Swiss International Air Lines, Cathay travel between borders. Pacific, Virgin Atlantic). IBM developed the Digital Health Pass, an adaptation of a digital wallet. Companies can customize the criteria required for entry (proof of vaccination, as well as Covid tests and other biometrics). Because competing credentialing systems will be a problem, the COVID-19 Credentials Initiative is Tech companies such as IBM are developing working to develop a set of common digital vaccine passports or mobile wallets for test results. standards for vaccine passports.

1ST YEAR ON THE LIST City-Scale Digital Twins

KEY INSIGHT EXAMPLES DISRUPTIVE IMPACT EMERGING PLAYERS Building on cities’ traditional modeling As cities worldwide develop digital twins, • National Research Foundation, Prime Cities are using digital tools, these digital twins draw on data they will combine historically siloed Minister’s Office, Singapore twins of themselves from intelligent buildings, vehicles, and and buggy datasets from many sources. • Arup Group to model the interplay infrastructure to help decision-makers As a result, city government vendor play out a variety of scenarios. They can contracts will shift further toward data • Siemens of real-world infra- prepare emergency management for aggregation, cleaning, management, and • Taisei events like floods and power outages, analytics. Digital twins will eventually structure, topography, • Dassault Systèmes movement, and popu- and they can assess the impact of a take over micro-decisions from city construction project, such as the shadow government, such as snowplow routing. lation. The result: better it casts on nearby properties or how it Companies building artificial intelligence management in the real affects traffic flow. The first digital twin systems to predict, plan for, and respond to urban needs will see successes, as cities world. city, Virtual Singapore, locates areas that need better mobile data coverage, models seek to streamline operations in per- barrier-free routes for people with dis- petually budget-strained environments. abilities, and identifies buildings ideal for Autonomous vehicle companies and solar panel installations. Sydney made its buildings will enjoy the benefits of more digital twin an open-source platform to and better data, such as 4D maps. Like- better plan for land development. wise, insurance companies will be further empowered to pinpoint risk areas based on intricate prediction models. Privacy concerns around using data that can City-scale digital twins will shape our future identify individuals may limit the scope urban landscapes. of some predictions.

1ST YEAR ON THE LIST State Charters for Blockchain

KEY INSIGHT EXAMPLES DISRUPTIVE IMPACT EMERGING PLAYERS In 2020, Wyoming became the first state In 2015, Kraken and other crypto com- • Avanti Bank founder Caitlin Long U.S. states are devel- to approve a banking charter for digital panies ceased operations in New York • Wyoming Gov. Mark Gordon oping charters and assets when it approved applications by after the rollout of strict regulations. • U.S. Sen. Cynthia Lummis (R-Wyo.) special permissions to Kraken (a consumer-focused crypto- Governments that create burdensome currency exchange) and Avanti Bank & regulations around crypto may find • Andrew Yang stimulate blockchain Trust (a bank created to hold crypto for that industry players and the opportu- • Miami Mayor Francis Suarez use for digital identifi- institutions) to form the first two special nity they bring may leave for greener purpose depository institutions (SPDIs) pastures. That said, federal regulations cation, cryptocurren- in the world. The SPDI permit enables could nullify state and municipal efforts. cies, and managing institutions to take deposits and offer The states are eager to court startups, digital assets. custody and fiduciary services for digital so new policies and regulations favor- assets. All this came to fruition just one ing blockchain initiatives are likely in year after Wyoming passed legislation to 2021. Miami Mayor Francis Suarez, allow SPDI charters. The state’s Division who launched a Twitter campaign at the of Banking granted permission to Two end of 2020 pitching the city as the next Ocean Trust, a wealth management ser- center for fintech innovation, met with vices firm, to provide custodial services crypto industry leaders and explored a Wyoming legislators have been key in promoting a friendly regulatory environment toward crypto. for digital assets. In November, the Uni- Miami-based Gemini LATAM headquar- versity of Wyoming launched its Center ters with founders Tyler and Cameron for Blockchain and Digital Innovation, Winklevoss. signaling a growing trend in the state.

1ST YEAR ON THE LIST State Laws for Facial Recognition

KEY INSIGHT EXAMPLES DISRUPTIVE IMPACT EMERGING PLAYERS In early 2020, New Jersey Attorney While lawmakers introduce legislation to • New Jersey Attorney General States are developing General Gurbir Grewal directed all police curb the use of facial recognition, infra- Gurbir Grewal local laws for facial departments to cease the use of Clear- structure for the technology grows by the • New York State Sen. Brad Hoylman recognition technology view AI, a controversial facial recog- second as users upload photos and video nition tool. Despite questions around to TikTok, Instagram, and other social • U.S. Sen. Ed Markey (D-Mass.) and its use in law en- accuracy, collection methodologies, and platforms. Technology companies are • U.S. Department of Justice privacy rights, Clearview reportedly built aware of the problem: Last summer Mi- forcement. • American Civil Liberties Union a database of more than 3 billion photos crosoft and IBM banned the police use of scraped from the likes of Facebook and their technologies, and Amazon placed a Venmo. Later in the year, a New Jer- one year moratorium on police use of its sey man sued a local police department Rekognition tool. However, facial recog- after a facial recognition tool mistakenly nition technology did aid in arrests made linked him to a shoplifting case and he following the Jan. 6, 2021, U.S. Capitol spent 10 days in jail. A similar situa- riot. Lawmakers must grapple with pri- tion unfolded in Michigan, after police vacy rights and unauthorized collection wrongly arrested a Black man due to of data, as well as with the technology’s mistaken facial recognition. A growing effectiveness in law enforcement. body of research found consistent inaccu- racy when facial recognition algorithms attempt to identify females, people of color, and younger people. As the infrastructure for facial recognition technology expands, questions around unfet- tered surveillance remain.

3RD YEAR ON THE LIST Multilateral Science and Technology Acts

KEY INSIGHT EXAMPLES DISRUPTIVE IMPACT EMERGING PLAYERS Multilateral agreements between sov- COVID-19 has been a stress test of • International Union of Biological Throughout history, ereign nations resulted in the Geneva current cooperative relationships world- Sciences multilateral efforts Conventions, League of Nations, Inter- wide. Throughout 2021, the outcome of • United Nations have resulted in na- national Monetary Fund, United Na- vaccine distribution will result in vaccine tions, and World Health Organization. nationalism or multilateralism, and that • World Health Organization tions working togeth- Now, following revelations that a pair will have downstream effects on other er to promote shared of genetically engineered twin girls was key areas of science and technology— born in China, some wonder whether in- CRISPR, ocean plastics, climate, auton- purposes. Proposals ternational norms are enough. As many omous vehicles, AI, and space explora- to create multilateral fields of science and technology produce tion—for years to come. initiatives on artificial striking new developments, lawmakers, researchers, and ethicists are calling for intelligence, genomic some kind of consensus—and interna- editing, and blockchain tional deliberations that could lead to are currently being dis- international treaties and protocols. cussed.

COVID-19 has been a stress test of current cooperative relationships worldwide.

5TH YEAR ON THE LIST Digital Dividends

KEY INSIGHT EXAMPLES DISRUPTIVE IMPACT EMERGING PLAYERS Proponents of an unconditional guar- With rising unemployment and financial • Centre for Public Impact A digital dividend anteed income for everyone within a loss, COVID-19 gave UBI programs new • GiveDirectly would give citizens a country argue that it would be a means momentum. Germany launched a new • California cut of the profits de- of encouraging entrepreneurial inno- UBI program in August 2020 similar to vation and that it would help offset the the Stockton experiment: 120 Germans • German Institute for rived from their person- effects of automation, advanced robotics, are receiving 1,200 euros ($1,430) every Economic Research and artificial intelligence on the market month for three years. Researchers are al data. • Renda Básica de Cidadania for human labor. California Gov. Gavin comparing the UBI group with a control program in Brazil Newsom proposed a digital dividend group not receiving basic income, to that would allow state residents to share determine the impact on everyday life. • Stanford Center on Philanthropy in the profits of big tech companies. Spain launched a UBI program for its and Civil Society There are already city-scale experimental lowest-income families and is distrib- universal basic income (UBI) programs uting 1,015 euros ($1,145) to those in running in Oakland and Stockton, need. Kenya’s UBI program, the largest California. The Stockton project initially and longest-running UBI experiment gave 125 randomly selected low income in the world, is five years into a 12-year families $500 a month for 18 months; re- experiment period. More than 20,000 cipients spent the money on utility bills, people receive monthly payments, no credit card debt, groceries, and dental strings attached. work. The program, deemed successful, was extended into 2021. A UBI program in Maricá, Brazil, launched in 2013.