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Tropical Storm Katia eVENT Hurricane Tracking Advisory Tropical Storm Katia Information from NHC Advisory 3, 4:00 AM CDT Wed September 6, 2017 On the forecast track, the center of Katia is expected to remain offshore of Mexico through Friday morning. Katia is moving toward the east south-east near 2 mph, and the system should gradually turn southeastward during the next 24 hours and continue moving in this general direction through Thursday. A turn toward the southwest is forecast on Friday. Intensity Measures Position & Heading U.S. Landfall (NHC) Max Sustained Wind 40 mph Position Relative to 105 miles E of Tampico, Mexico Speed: (Tropical Storm) Land: Est. Time & Region: N/A Min Central Pressure: 1006 mb Coordinates: 22.1 N, 96.3 W Trop. Storm Force Est. Max Sustained 45 miles Bearing/Speed: ESE or 110 degrees at 2 mph N/A Winds Extent: Wind Speed: Forecast Summary ■ The NHC forecast map (below left) and the wind-field map (below right), which is based on the NHC’s forecast track, both show Katia remaining offshore of Mexico. To illustrate the uncertainty in Katia’s forecast track, forecast tracks for all current models are shown on the wind-field map (below right) in pale gray. Forecast Track for Tropical Storm Katia Forecast Wind-field for Tropical Storm Katia © Copyright 2016 Willis Limited / Willis Re Inc. All rights reserved: No part of this publication may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system, or transmitted in any form or by any means, whether electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording, or otherwise, without the permission of Willis Limited/Willis Re Inc. Some information contained in this report may be compiled from third party sources; however, we do not guarantee and are not responsible for the accuracy of Hazard and damage potential maps such. This report is for general information only, is not intended to be relied upon, and any action based on or in connection with anything contained herein should be taken only after obtaining specific advice. The views expressed in this produced by Willis are based on numerical report are not necessarily those of Willis Limited/Willis Re Inc., or any of its/their parent or sister companies, subsidiaries or affiliates, Willis Towers Watson PLC or any member companies thereof (hereinafter “Willis Towers Watson”). modeling results from Kinetic Analysis Willis Towers Watson accepts no responsibility for the content or quality of any third party websites to which we refer. Corporation. The TAOS real-time hazard and impact forecast information is provided "as is" and without warranties as to performance or any other warranties whether expressed or implied. The user is strongly cautioned to recognize that natural hazards modeling and analysis are subject to many uncertainties. These uncertainties include, but are not limited to, the uncertainties inherent in weather and climate, incomplete or inaccurate weather data, changes to the natural and built environment, limited historical records, and limitations in the state of the art of modeling, as well as limits to the scientific understanding of storm weather phenomena. Anyone making use of the hazard and impact information provided by KAC, or the information contained within, assumes all liability deriving from such use, and agrees to "hold harmless" any and all agencies or individuals associated with its creation. The user agrees to provide any subsequent users of this data with this disclaimer. The publication of the material contained herein is not intended as a representation or warranty that this information is suitable for any general or particular use. Coastal Watches and Warnings There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. Summary of Atlantic Hurricane Activity to Date Benchmarking the 2017 Atlantic Season to Date 2017 Activity versus Average Activity for the years 1950 – 2011 Tropical Total Cat 3-5 12 TS Katia Tropical Storm avg '50-'11 Tropical Storm 2017 Storms Hurricanes Hurricanes Hurricane avg '50-'11 Hurricane 2017 TS Jose 2017 year to date (1/1/16 – 09/06/17) 11 4 2 Major Hurricane avg '50-'11 Major Hurricane 2017 TS Irma 8 TS Harvey 2016 year to date (1/1/16 – 09/06/17) 8 4 1 TS Gert 1995-2011 season average 14.7 7.9 3.8 TS Franklin TS Emily 4 TS Don HU Irma 1950-2011 season average 10.7 6.2 2.7 TS Cindy HU Harvey 2017 CSU season forecasts 13 6 2 TS Bret HU Gert Major HU Irma (Colorado State University at June 1,‘17) HU Franklin Major HU Harvey 2017 NOAA season forecasts 11-17 5-9 2-4 0 May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov (May25, 2017) Tropical Storm Activity to Date 2017 Tropical Storm Activity versus Average Activity Katia is the eleventh named storm, fourth hurricane and second major hurricane The graph above shows 2017 Atlantic Hurricane Season activity and average of the 2017 Atlantic Hurricane Season. Last year saw eight named storms four occurrence rates since 1950 by date, category and order. It shows, for example, that hurricanes and one major hurricane by September 6. Katia became the season’s ninth named storm on August 30. It also shows the average season has 10.7 tropical storms, 6.2 hurricanes and 2.7 major hurricanes (categories 3-5). New Tropical Cyclone Potential and Average Remaining Risk Five Day Tropical Weather Outlook Average Risk Remaining in the 2017 Atlantic Hurricane Season For the North Atlantic, Caribbean Sea, and the Gulf of Mexico: The National Atlantic hurricane activity and major hurricane activity (categories 3-5) both peak in Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane Katia, located over the northern September, as the graph below illustrates. The average remaining percentage of days Leeward Islands, on Tropical Storm Jose, located over the central Atlantic Ocean, with Atlantic hurricane activity at September 6 is 61% for all hurricanes and 60% for and on Tropical Storm Katia, located over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico. major hurricanes. Additional tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days. Percentage of Days with Active Hurricanes since 1900 Contact us Roy Cloutier Ryan Vesledahl Matt Nicolai roy.cloutier@ willistowerswatson.com [email protected] [email protected] +1 (952) 841-6652 +1 (952) 841-6672 +1 (952) 841-6657 2 .
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