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(Over)Confidence Predicts Escalation of Public Commitment
Journal of Experimental Social Psychology 69 (2017) 13–22 Contents lists available at ScienceDirect Journal of Experimental Social Psychology journal homepage: www.elsevier.com/locate/jesp Pride before the fall: (Over)confidence predicts escalation of public commitment Richard Ronay ⁎, Janneke K. Oostrom, Nale Lehmann-Willenbrock, Mark Van Vugt Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam, The Netherlands HIGHLIGHTS • We examined the effect of overconfidence on escalation of commitment. • In a private context, overconfidence is unrelated to escalation decisions. • In a public context, overconfidence is positively related to escalation decisions. • Individual differences in overconfidence are related to reputation sensitivity. • Reputational concerns drive publicly announced investment decision. article info abstract Article history: In four studies we examined the effect of overconfidence on escalation of commitment in investment tasks. Study Received 16 February 2016 1(N = 105) revealed a positive relationship between overconfidence and decisions to escalate. In contrast, Study Revised 15 October 2016 2(N = 121) showed that overconfidence was negatively related to escalation of commitment. The reversal of this Accepted 16 October 2016 effect appeared to emerge as a function of the public (Study 1) versus private (Study 2) context in which the in- Available online 20 October 2016 vestment decisions were made. In Study 3 (N = 108) and Study 4 (N = 380) we experimentally replicated this pattern of findings and found support for the explanatory role of reputational concerns. A meta-analysis of the Keywords: fi fi Overconfidence ndings from our four studies showed that overcon dence is positively related to escalation of commitment in Confidence public contexts, and that this relationship is absent when decisions are made privately. -
Activity-Based Rail Freight Costing a Model for Calculating Transport Costs in Different Production Systems
Activity-Based Rail Freight Costing A model for calculating transport costs in different production systems GERHARD TROCHE Freight flows Requirements & Desires Train timetable Possibilities & Restrictions Infrastructure Doctoral Thesis in Railway Traffic Planning Stockholm, Sweden 2009 KUNGLIGA TEKNISKA HÖGSKOLAN TRITA-TEC-PHD 09-002 Royal Institute of Technology ISSN 1653-4468 ISBN 13:978-91-85539-35-2 Division for Transportation & Logistics Railway Group Activity-Based Rail Freight Costing A model for calculating transport costs in different production systems Gerhard Troche Doctoral Thesis Stockholm, February 2009 Gerhard Troche © 2009 Gerhard Troche [email protected] Division for Transportation & Logistics - Railway Group - S – 100 44 STOCKHOLM Sweden www.infra.kth.se Printed in Sweden by Universitetsservice US AB, Stockholm 2009 - 2 - Activity-Based Rail Freight Costing - 3 - Gerhard Troche Innehåll Preface 7 Summary 9 1 Introduction 17 1.1 Background 17 1.2 The need for information on railway costs 23 1.3 Goals and purpose 26 1.4 Delimitations 28 2 Literature review 31 2.1 Introductory remarks 31 2.2 General theory of costs and cost calculation 33 2.3 Transport cost models for rail freight 51 3 Methodology 67 3.1 Research approach 67 3.2 Selection of activities and cost items to be depicted 71 3.3 Model validation 75 3.4 Methods of data collection 78 4 Structuring the rail freight system 83 4.1 Products and production systems 83 4.2 Operating principles for freight trains 90 4.3 Changing organizational structures in the railway -
Escalation Revisited: Investigating the Influence of Personality and Organizational Support on Escalation of Commitment
Escalation Revisited: Investigating the Influence of Personality and Organizational Support on Escalation of Commitment by Julia Walsh Howell A dissertation submitted to the Graduate Faculty of Auburn University in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the Degree of Doctor of Philosophy Auburn, Alabama August 2, 2014 Keywords: Escalation of commitment, personality, organizational support, sunk costs Copyright 2014 by Julia Walsh Howell Approved by Daniel Svyantek, Chair, Professor and Chair, Department of Psychology Ana Franco-Watkins, Associate Professor, Department of Psychology Alejandro Lazarte, Associate Professor, Department of Psychology Alan Walker, Associate Professor, Department of Management Abstract Escalation of commitment research has been narrow in its scope of influencing factors. A goal of this study was to remedy this gap by including factors at the individual, organizational, and decision context level that affect escalation. Furthermore, to my knowledge there is no other escalation research that has included both an economic and a human resources (HR) decision scenario. A significant contribution of this study was the results showing these two types of scenarios have different, and sometimes opposing, outcomes. In the economic context, sunk costs were positively related to escalation, but the relationship was inversed in the HR context. Additionally, facets of neuroticism and openness to experience were related to escalation in the economic context, but no such relationships were present in the HR context. Openness to experience moderated the relationship between organizational support and escalation. The results in the HR context have practical implications regarding how managers select, train, promote, and terminate employees. Furthermore, the differential outcomes in the economic and HR contexts provide a first step in expanding the theoretical implications of varying contexts and their influence on escalation. -
Prizes and Awards Session
PRIZES AND AWARDS SESSION Wednesday, July 12, 2021 9:00 AM EDT 2021 SIAM Annual Meeting July 19 – 23, 2021 Held in Virtual Format 1 Table of Contents AWM-SIAM Sonia Kovalevsky Lecture ................................................................................................... 3 George B. Dantzig Prize ............................................................................................................................. 5 George Pólya Prize for Mathematical Exposition .................................................................................... 7 George Pólya Prize in Applied Combinatorics ......................................................................................... 8 I.E. Block Community Lecture .................................................................................................................. 9 John von Neumann Prize ......................................................................................................................... 11 Lagrange Prize in Continuous Optimization .......................................................................................... 13 Ralph E. Kleinman Prize .......................................................................................................................... 15 SIAM Prize for Distinguished Service to the Profession ....................................................................... 17 SIAM Student Paper Prizes .................................................................................................................... -
Descriptive Asymmetries in Evaluative Vs Non-Evaluative Framing of the Dollar Auction Implications for Theories of Escalation of Commitment
Descriptive Asymmetries In Evaluative vs Non-Evaluative Framing of The Dollar Auction Implications for Theories of Escalation of Commitment By Samuel Wallis Rogers Middle School Dr. Charles Wallis Department of Philosophy, CSULB 1.) Introduction The dollar auction, first described by Shubik1, is a classic example of an escalation of commitment or entrapment scenario described by von Neuman2 and Campbell3. Specifically, the dollar auction is a logical game played with multiple players. The game leader auctions a dollar, and the two or more players bid on it. The winner pays their bet and gets the dollar; the second highest bidder pays their bet and gets nothing. In practice, once people begin bidding, they will escalate their commitment (increase their bids). Often, the bids build up long past the point when either player could gain anything from winning. The game model is similar to the War of Attrition game and the All-pay Auction. In escalation of commitment scenarios, decision makers initially commit resources—money, time, reputation, etc.—in order to achieve some goal or goals. After the initial resource commitment, decision makers must repeatedly choose whether to allocate further resources under uncertainty and after receiving negative feedback about prior resource allocations. Escalation of commitment eludes explanation by traditional economics since traditional microeconomics supposes that decision makers maximize expected utility, i.e., microeconomics predicts that rational decision makers will choose the option with the highest utility, where utility equals the probability of an expected outcome multiplied by the value assigned to the outcome by the decision maker. According to accounting and economics texts normative criteria for investments dictate that one should invest resources only when marginal (future) benefits exceed marginal costs. -
Can Group Decision-Making Mitigate Propensity of Escalating Commitment?
Front. Bus. Res. China 2008, 2(1): 33–49 DOI 10.1007/s11782-008-0003-x RESEARCH ARTICLE LIU Zhiyuan, LIU Qing Can group decision-making mitigate propensity of escalating commitment? ―An experimental research based on the prospect theory © Higher Education Press and Springer-Verlag 2008 Abstract Escalation of commitment is a well-known investment trap, which is irrational from an economic point of view but inevitable due to psychological factors. Based on a role-playing experiment, this paper intends to analyze the impact of different effects of the prospect theory on the tendency of escalating commitment in different decision-making processes, and discusses whether certain decision-making processes can mitigate the tendency of escalating commitment. Our empirical results indicate that groups with prior individual consideration can make better decisions involving effects of the prospect theory than individuals and groups. Keywords escalation of commitment, group decision-making, prospect theory 摘要 恶性增资现象广泛存在于各种组织结构中,对社会的资源配置产生重大影响。 从经济学角度看,恶性增资是非理性,不应该发生, 但从决策者心理角度看, 有其产 生的必然因素。通过角色模拟实验, 分析前景理论的各效应在不同决策方式(个体决 策、直接集体决策和先个体后集体决策) 下对恶性增资心理倾向的不同影响, 进而探 讨采取特定的决策方式是否能够有效地对恶性增资倾向进行控制。结论表明, 先个 体后集体的决策方式可以较好地规避前景理论效应。 Translated and revised from Zhongguo gongye jingji 中国工业经济(China Industrial Economy), 2007, (4): 13–20 LIU Zhiyuan ( ) School of Business, Nankai University, Tianjin 300071, China E-mail: [email protected] LIU Qing Department of Accounting, School of Business, Nankai University, Tianjin 300071, China E-mail: [email protected] 34 LIU Zhiyuan, LIU Qing 关键词 恶性增资,集体决策,前景理论 1 Introduction Previous research(Staw, 1976, 1981; Bazerman et al., 1984) has found that individuals who are responsible for a previous decision tend to make increasing commitment to the previously chosen course of action even when the outcome of the previous decision turned out to be negative. -
On Public Sector Project Management in a Small Island Development State
buildings Case Report Implications of ‘Lock-in’ on Public Sector Project Management in a Small Island Development State Aaron Anil Chadee 1,* , Xsitaaz Twinkle Chadee 2 , Abrahams Mwasha 1 and Hector Hugh Martin 3 1 Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, The University of the West Indies, St Augustine 330110, Trinidad and Tobago; [email protected] 2 Department of Physics, The University of the West Indies, St Augustine 330110, Trinidad and Tobago; [email protected] 3 School of Civil Engineering and Built Environment, Liverpool John Moores University, Liverpool 72046, UK; [email protected] * Correspondence: [email protected]; Abstract: The concept of ‘Lock-In’, or the escalating cost of overcommitment on a project to a failing course of action, has unforeseeable implications in project management. This paper presents a case study on the occurrence and consequences of lock-in within the context of public sector housing projects in a small island developing state (SIDS). It demonstrates that cost overruns continue beyond the commissioning phase and throughout the project’s lifecycle, even though technical contingencies were implemented to deliver the intended project benefits. The findings unpack the implications of political expediency as a strategic tool mobilised to supersede proper technical decision-making prior to project execution. It concludes that project practitioners’ commitment to select and continue with a sub-optimal project can lead to the implementation of ineffective solutions to justify their actions, resulting in failed outcomes with negative social consequences. This research helps to advance project Citation: Chadee, A.A.; Chadee, X.T.; management knowledge in the us-er/operation phase, because previous scholarly work was limited Mwasha, A.; Martin, H.H. -
Chapter 14 Yards and Terminals1
CHAPTER 14 YARDS AND TERMINALS1 FOREWORD This chapter deals with the engineering and economic problems of location, design, construction and operation of yards and terminals used in railway service. Such problems are substantially the same whether railway's ownership and use is to be individual or joint. The location and arrangement of the yard or terminal as a whole should permit the most convenient and economical access to it of the tributary lines of railway, and the location, design and capacity of the several facilities or components within said yard or terminal should be such as to handle the tributary traffic expeditiously and economically and to serve the public and customer conveniently. In the design of new yards and terminals, the retention of existing railway routes and facilities may seem desirable from the standpoint of initial expenditure or first cost, but may prove to be extravagant from the standpoint of operating costs and efficiency. A true economic balance should be achieved, keeping in mind possible future trends and changes in traffic criteria, as to volume, intensity, direction and character. Although this chapter contemplates the establishment of entirely new facilities, the recommendations therein will apply equally in the rearrangement, modernization, enlargement or consolidation of existing yards and terminals and related facilities. Part 1, Generalities through Part 4, Specialized Freight Terminals include specific and detailed recommendations relative to the handling of freight, regardless of the type of commodity or merchandise, at the originating, intermediate and destination points. Part 5, Locomotive Facilities and Part 6, Passenger Facilities relate to locomotive and passenger facilities, respectively. -
Resumé WARD WHITT
March 2020 Resum´e WARD WHITT Current Employment Wai T. Chang Professor Department of Industrial Engineering and Operations Research Fu Foundation School of Engineering and Applied Science Columbia University Mail Code 4704, S. W. Mudd Building 500 West 120th Street New York, NY 10027-6699 Phone: (212) 854-7255 Fax: (212) 854-8103 Citizenship: USA Email: [email protected] URL: http://www.columbia.edu/∼ww2040 Education 1969 Ph.D., Cornell University Major Field: Operations Research Minor Fields: Mathematics and Regional Planning Thesis: Weak Convergence Theorems for Queues in Heavy Traffic (Advisor: D. L. Iglehart; Committee Members: H. Kesten and N. U. Prabhu) 1964 A.B., Dartmouth College Major: Mathematics (Senior Honors Thesis Advisor: J. G. Kemeny) Research, Consulting and Teaching Interests Queues: approximation techniques, limit theorems, heavy-traffic theory, model stability, bounds and inequalities, transient behavior, queues with time-varying arrival rates, nu- merical transform inversion, fundamental principles such as L = λW , stochastic net- works, applications to communication networks, manufacturing systems and service sys- tems such as contact centers and healthcare systems Probability and Stochastic Processes: limit theorems, weak convergence, diffusion processes, stochastic order relations, simulation, numerical transform inversion, stochastic models in operations research. Telecommunication Systems: performance analysis, internet performance, IP networks, circuit- switched networks, wireless networks, high-speed communication networks, asynchronous transfer mode technology, traffic descriptors, traffic regulators, protection against over- loads, staffing telephone call centers, real-time performance prediction and control Operations Research: applied probability, stochastic models, queues, performance analysis, simulation, dynamic programming, game theory, decision analysis, approximation tech- niques, telecommunication, computer manufacturing and service systems. Employment History Columbia University in the City of New York 2002– Professor, Dept. -
Bjarke Nielsen Og Peter Bierre
An Analysis of Mergers and Acquisitions during the Recent Merger Wave in Scandinavia Master’s Thesis M.Sc. Finance & Strategic Management Advisor: Thomas Poulsen Department of International Economics and Management Authors: Bjarke Nielsen Peter Bierregaard Date for submission: June 16 th 2010 Number of characters including spaces plus figures (STUs): 265.892 ~ 116.9 pages Executive summary This thesis focuses on the performance of mergers and acquisitions during the recent Scandinavian merger wave. The number of acquisitions fluctuates over time, and it is interesting that empirical studies find a considerable number of acquisitions struggling to create value. This fact motivates the focus on the motives behind the value decreasing acquisitions from an agency and behavioral perspective. Hence, the thesis examines how agency theory and behavioral economics can explain underperforming acquisitions, and seeks to set up a number of recommendations that can be used proactively to prevent these. The thesis develops theoretical arguments for value destroying motives which bases the ground for eight hypotheses. Related to agency theory, M&A motivated by empire building, managerial risk aversion, managerial entrenchment and private benefits of control have a direct theoretical effect on merger performance. Likewise, hypotheses are set up for herd behavior/anchoring, overconfidence, the confirmation trap and escalation of commitment which all are value decreasing motives founded in behavioral economics. A sample of 579 Scandinavian acquisitions is examined. The acquisitions were completed within the period of 2001-2006 and it covers the trough and peak period of the recent merger wave. Through an operating performance analysis it is evident that 49.57 % of the mergers underperform compared to their peers. -
Affiliation of Authors in Production and Operations Management Journals" (2003)
Western Michigan University ScholarWorks at WMU Honors Theses Lee Honors College 5-15-2003 Affiliation ofuthors A in Production and Operations Management Journals Steven M. Yager Western Michigan University, [email protected] Follow this and additional works at: https://scholarworks.wmich.edu/honors_theses Part of the Business Commons, and the Journalism Studies Commons Recommended Citation Yager, Steven M., "Affiliation of Authors in Production and Operations Management Journals" (2003). Honors Theses. 1173. https://scholarworks.wmich.edu/honors_theses/1173 This Honors Thesis-Open Access is brought to you for free and open access by the Lee Honors College at ScholarWorks at WMU. It has been accepted for inclusion in Honors Theses by an authorized administrator of ScholarWorks at WMU. For more information, please contact [email protected]. THE CARL AND WINIFRED LEE HONORS COLLEGE CERTIFICATE OF ORAL EXAMINATION Steven M. Yager, having been admitted to the Carl and Winifred Lee Honors College in Fall 1998 successfullypresented the Lee Honors College Thesis on May 15, 2003. The title of the paper is: Affiliation of Authors in Production and Operations Management Journals /JsS / /J.-\ /-''>l"^C Dr. Sime Curkovic r. Robert Landeros AFFILIATION OF AUTHORS IN PRODUCTION AND OPERATIONS MANAGEMENT JOURNALS Spring 2003 Steven M. Yager Haworth College of Business & Lee Honors College Western Michigan University Kalamazoo, MI 49008, USA Dr. Sime Curkovic Haworth College of Business Western Michigan University Kalamazoo, MI 49008, USA -
Unit Train Transportation of Coal
Digitized by the Internet Archive in 2012 with funding from University of Illinois Urbana-Champaign http://archive.org/details/unittraintranspo163ferg The Minimum Fee for NOTICE: Return or renew all Library Materials! each Lost Book is $50.00. JIJN 9 7 IQflQ The person charging this material Is re^Wisible for it was withdrawn its return to the library from which on or before the Latest Date stamped below. ins for discipli- Theft, mu lersity. nary actiof^rijl , To renew can TeiepHonS Center, UNIVERSITY OF ILLINOIS LIBRARY L161—O-1096 C>)A.<.cyJ^ CklfS! JbKARY >' OF ILLINOIS 4AJLUNC UNIT TRAIN TRANSPORTATION OF COAL BY JOHN ALAN FERGUSON S., Eastern Illinois University, 1970 M.S., Eastern Illinois University. 1971 THESIS Submitted in partial fulfillment of the requirements the degree of Master of Science in Mechanical Engineering in the Graduate College of the University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, 1975 Urbana, Illinois The person charging this material is re- sponsible for its return to the library from which it was withdrawn on or before the Latest Date stamped below. Theft, mutilation, and underlining of books are reasons for disciplinary action and may result in dismissal from the University. To renew call Telephone Center, 333-8400 UNIVERSITY OF ILLINOIS LIBRARY AT URBANA-CHAMPAIGN I l I I & uZtx tLkM m i° w» it* flee : L161—O-1096 . Appendix E CAC Document No. 163 Final Report * The Coal Future: Economic and Technological Analysis of Initiatives and Innovations to Secure Fuel Supply Independence by Michael Rieber Center for Advanced Computation University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign and Shao Lee Soo James Stukel College of Engineering University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign Advisor Jack Simon, Chief Illinois State Geological Survey Center for Advanced Computation University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign Urbana, Illinois 61801 May 1975 This work was supported by the National Science Foundation (RANN) , NSF Grant No.