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T ECHNICAL S ESSIONS Sunday, 8:00am - 9:30am How to Navigate the Technical Sessions ■ SA01 There are three primary resources to help you C-Room 21, Upper Level understand and navigate the Technical Sessions: Panel Discussion: The Society of Decision • This Technical Session listing, which provides the Professionals - Building a True Profession most detailed information. The listing is presented Sponsor: Decision Analysis chronologically by day/time, showing each session Sponsored Session and the papers/abstracts/authors within each Chair: Carl Spetzler, Chairman & CEO, Strategic Decisions Group (SDG), 745 Emerson St, Palo Alto, CA, 94301, United States of session. America, [email protected] • The Session Chair, Author, and Session indices 1 - The Society of Decision Professionals - Building a provide cross-reference assistance (pages 426-463). True Profession Moderator: Carl Spetzler, Chairman & CEO, Strategic Decisions • The Track Schedule is on pages 46-53. This is an Group (SDG), 745 Emerson St, Palo Alto, CA, 94301, United overview of the tracks (general topic areas) and States of America, [email protected], Panelist: Larry Neal, when/where they are scheduled. David Leonhardi, Hannah Winter, Jack Kloeber, Andrea Dickens When we take stock of 40 years of Decision Analysis practice. Decision professionals still assist in only a small fraction of important and difficult choices. In this panel, practitioners will explore why this is the case and discuss how to Quickest Way to Find Your Own Session form a true profession to transform the way important and difficult decisions are Use the Author Index (pages 430-453) — the session made. code for your presentation(s) will be shown along with the track number. You can also refer to the full session ■ SA02 listing for the room location of your session(s). C-Room 22, Upper Level Joint Session DA/HAS:Decision Analysis in Health Applications The Session Codes Sponsor: Decision Analysis & Health Applications Sponsored Session Chair: Israel David, Professor, Ben-Gurion University, Track number. Coordinates with 14/38 Rahavat-Ilan Street, Givat-Shmuel, Israel, [email protected] the room locations shown in the SB01 Track Schedule. Room locations are 1 - The Search for Compatible Kidneys for Transplantation also indicated in the listing for each - A Handy Research and Decision Aid session. Israel David, Professor, Ben-Gurion University, 14/38 Rahavat-Ilan Street, Givat-Shmuel, Israel, [email protected], Michal Moatty-Assa Time Block. Matches the time We study the prospects of patients for kidney transplant and their optimal The day of blocks shown in the Track acceptance-rejection policy for varying-quality tissue matching. We present a the week Schedule. computational tool to calculate the probabilities of present-day relevant HLA mismatches, and the optimal policy in terms of critical times. The accompanied Excel software may serve both the surgeon and the organizer of a donation program. Its use sheds light on debated issues such as race discrimination in Time Blocks unrelated-donor organ transplantation. Sunday-Thursday 2 - Decision Making Methodology for the Budget Impact Analysis of A - 8:00am – 9:30am Breast Cancer Screening Strategies B - 11:00am - 12:30pm Luis Hernandez, BSc, MSc Candidate, Universidad de Los Andes, Calle 100 #49-85 Bloque 2 Apt. 402, Bogota, Colombia, C - 1:30pm - 3:00pm [email protected], Mario Castillo D - 4:30pm - 6:00pm This work develops a decision analysis methodology to evaluate the budget impact of the introduction and diffusion of a new health technology in a health Wednesday care system formulary. This methodology is supported in a flexible and innovator Excel model, according to all international recommendations and guidelines. The A - 8:00am – 9:30am methodology was applied to a real case in Colombia and it can be adapted to B - 11:00am - 12:30pm other disease areas and health technologies. C - 1:45pm – 2:15pm 3 - Pharmaceutical Marketing Decision under a D - 2:45pm - 4:15pm Price-volume Agreement E - 4:30pm - 6:00pm Hui Zhang, Assistant Professor, Lakehead University, 955 Oliver Rd., Thunder Bay, ON, P7B5E1, Canada, [email protected], Greg Zaric Pharmaceutical marketing, which includes physician detailing and direct-to- consumers advertising, will promote drug sales but may decrease its health benefit on patients. Price-volume agreements, in which the manufacturer returns Room Locations/Tracks to the payer a portion of sales exceeding a volume threshold, have emerged as a All tracks and technical sessions will be held in the way to manage this issue. We develop a principal-agent model to derive the optimal marketing decision with the volume threshold is determined by the Hilton San Diego Bayfront and the San Diego payer or by the manufacturer. Convention Center. Room numbers are shown on the Track Schedule and in the technical session listing. 57 SA03 INFORMS San Diego – 2009 ■ SA03 We analyze the dynamic simultaneous ascending auction (SAA) and a sealed-bid variant (SSA). In both formats, competition takes place on an item-by-item basis, C-Room 23A, Upper Level which creates an exposure problem. When competing aggressively for a package, a bidder may incur a loss when winning only a subset. We characterize the Game Theory and Computational Economics I Bayes-Nash equilibria for SSA and SAA. With many licenses for sale the SAA Cluster: Game Theory generates efficient outcomes. This surprising result provides an important Invited Session justification for its widespread use. Chair: Nicolas Stier-Moses, Columbia Business School, 418 Uris, 3 - A Data-driven Exploration of Bidder Behavior in Continuous New York, United States of America, [email protected] Combinatorial Auctions Co-Chair: Gabriel Weintraub, Columbia Business School, 402 Uris, Alok Gupta, University of Minnesota, United States of America, New York, United States of America, [email protected] [email protected], Shawn Curley, Pallab Sanyal, 1 - The Linear Programming Approach to Solving Large Scale Gedas Adomavicius Dynamic Oligopoly Models Computational and cognitive complexity in Combinatorial Auctions has Gabriel Weintraub, Columbia Business School, 402 Uris, prevented this mechanism from reaching the online marketplace. Our study uses New York, United States of America, [email protected], a data-driven approach to explore bidder behavior in such auctions using three experimental treatments that differ in the type of information feedback provided Denis Saure, Vivek Farias to participants. The enumeration of the strategies along with the analysis of their Dynamic oligopoly models are used in industrial organization and the financial implications will help practitioners design better combinatorial auction management sciences to analyze diverse dynamic phenomena. The environments. computational complexity of solving for the equilibrium has severely limited the applicability of these models. We introduce approximation methods based on the LP approach to approximate dynamic programming that dramatically reduce the computational complexity. Our methods greatly increase the set of dynamic ■ SA05 oligopoly models that can be analyzed computationally. C-Room 23C, Upper Level 2 - Pricing with Markups under Horizontal and Vertical Competition Advancements in Data Analysis Nicolas Stier-Moses, Columbia Business School, 418 Uris, New York, United States of America, [email protected], Sponsor: Quality, Statistics and Reliability Jose Correa, Roger Lederman Sponsored Session We model a market for a single product that may be composed of sub-products Chair: Rajesh Ganesan, Assistant Professor, George Mason University, that face horizontal and vertical competition. Each firm, offering all or some 4400 Univ Dr. MS 4A6, Fairfax, VA, 22030, United States of America, portion of the product, adopts a price function proportional to its costs by [email protected] deciding on the size of a markup. Customers then choose a set of providers that 1 - Characterization of Nonlinear Profiles Variation Using offers the lowest total cost. We characterize equilibria of the two-stage game and Mixed-effect Models and Wavelets study the efficiency resulting from the competitive structure of the market. Kamran Paynabar, University of Michigan, 2292, Stone road, Ann 3 - Markov Perfect Equilibria in Stochastic Games Arbor, Ann Arbor, United States of America, [email protected], Matthieu Monsch, MIT, 70 Pacific St, Apt 586B, Cambridge, Judy Jin 02139, United States of America, [email protected], Nonparametric methods such as Wavelets have been effectively used in Georgia Perakis, Vivek Farias nonlinear profile monitoring. Traditionally, the profile variability is often Computation of closed-loop equilibria in dynamic pricing games under fixed modeled by i.i.d. random noises. Differently, this research considers both within- capacity is a hard problem. We study Markov Perfect Equilibria (MPE) in finite and between-profiles variations using a mixed effect model of transformed horizon discrete-time stochastic games. We show how Best Response dynamics wavelet features. A change-point model is applied to ensure the identicalness of converge to an MPE for linear demand. We suggest a natural dynamic that the profiles distribution. Finally, the performance of the model is evaluated using converges under mild assumptions to an MPE that capture a large class of simulation and a case study. nonlinear functions. 2 - Function Approximation: A Quality Comparison Between 4 - Comparing Multilateral and Bilateral
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