D e c e m b e r 2 0 1 2 A N A L Y S I S Environmental Change DR KHALID KOSER Deputy Director and Migration: Geneva Centre for Security Policy Implications for and Non-Resident Fellow Lowy Institute for International Policy [email protected] E x e c u t i v e s u m m a r y

It is likely that an increased number of migrants will arrive in Australia during the next decade as a result of the effects of environmental change in Pacific Island countries. A relatively modest sea-level rise may pose a threat to the very existence of Tuvalu and Kiribati. Natural disasters are increasing in frequency and intensity in Papua New Guinea, Fiji, Samoa and Vanuatu. Much of the population in these Pacific Island countries is youthful, and young adults tend to be the most mobile people. And migrants leaving their homes as a result of environmental change are likely to follow friends and family abroad, many of whom are already settled in Australia.

It is clearly in Australia’s national interest to manage future migration, including environmental migration. The scale of any environmental migration to Australia can be reduced by supporting adaptation to environmental change in the affected countries. But, however effective these adaptation measures prove, migration to Australia from the Pacific Island countries as a result of environmental change is still likely to occur. Australia needs to plan for this in order to maximise the benefits, but also minimise the costs, including any increase in irregular migration.

What is required is a national policy framework on environmental migration with three main components: continuing support for multilateral initiatives on environmental migration; capacity-building in origin and transit countries; and national legislation for LOWY INSTITUTE FOR environmental migrants arriving in Australia that leverages existing INTERNATIONAL POLICY labour migration programs and targets a limited number of countries. 31 Bligh Street Developing a national policy framework on environmental migration NSW 2000 is not an exercise in speculation – it is managing a future challenge, Tel: +61 2 8238 9000 and it is in Australia’s national interest to begin that process now. Fax: +61 2 8238 9005 www.lowyinstitute.org The Lowy Institute for International Policy is an independent policy think tank. Its mandate ranges across all the dimensions of international policy debate in Australia – economic, political and strategic – and it is not limited to a particular geographic region. Its two core tasks are to:

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Lowy Institute Analyses are short papers analysing recent international trends and events and their policy implications.

The views expressed in this paper are entirely the author’s own and not those of the Lowy Institute for International Policy. A n a l y s i s

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Introduction a policy framework is in the national interests of Australia. It is likely that an increased number of migrants will arrive in Australia during the next decade The proposal here is for a policy framework as a result of the effects of environmental that combines three main elements. The first change. In the Pacific Islands, the increasing element is to support current initiatives to place frequency of natural disasters, the disruption of environmental migration on the multilateral agriculture by climate change, and the prospect agenda and develop an international response. of even modest sea-level rises, could displace The second is to help build capacity in hundreds of thousands of people in the worst- countries that will be affected by environmental case scenario.1 Australia is a likely destination migration, targeting those countries that are for many of these people, because of likely to be origin or transit countries for geographical proximity, existing social migrants heading for Australia. The final networks, and the fact that it already has element is to develop national legislation for migration legislation that focuses on the Pacific environmental migrants in Australia. This can such as the 2012 Seasonal Worker Scheme. It be limited in scope to origin countries in will be surprising if Australia does not also Australia’s immediate neighbourhood, and become a target for people leaving Papua New build on the Seasonal Worker Scheme to Guinea, which is particularly vulnerable to the provide temporary work permits rather than effects of climate change, although many may indefinite humanitarian protection across the move locally first. Even where environmental board. migration does not directly affect Australia, it may increase resource scarcity, contribute to In developing the argument for a national state fragility, and even exacerbate conflict in policy framework, three key questions are parts of the world where Australian strategic, addressed in this paper. First, how many economic, and development interests are environmental migrants can be expected in significant. Australia and how soon? Second, why is it in Australia’s national interest to act now? And This Analysis makes the case for developing a third, what form should a national policy national policy framework on environmental framework on environmental migration take? migration. It does so without relying on the dubious science, the irresponsible manipulation of data, and the sheer conjecture that have How many and how soon? characterised much of the global debate on migration and climate change in recent years. Many experts are understandably nervous Neither does it depend on the unconvincing about making estimates regarding argument that the ‘polluter should pay’ by environmental migration. The science of invoking the national responsibility of high- environmental change is not robust enough to emission countries like Australia to bear the make solid predictions, and data on burden for the consequences of climate change. contemporary migration are too inaccurate to Instead, it makes the argument that developing use as a basis for forecasting. The production

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of data on climate change and migration has environmental factors from other factors in become politicised, and estimates on migration motivating migration.2 And migration may resulting from the effects of environmental often be internal rather than across change can be used to alarm rather than international borders.3 inform. Certainly, any estimate on environmental migration needs to be handled In considering the future impact of carefully. environmental change on migration to Australia, particular attention has been paid to Nevertheless, a lack of accuracy in forecasting Tuvalu and Kiribati. The main reason is that a should not be a reason to avoid addressing relatively modest sea-level rise, or even a major what most commentators agree will become a storm, may pose a threat to the very existence substantial issue. Even at the lower end of the of these island states.4 The environmental threat estimates that are published, environmental is compounded by inadequate land and coastal migration will take place at a scale significant management in both countries. In Kiribati, one enough, and soon enough, to merit policy can add inadequate water and sanitation attention now. policies to the list of problems. It is possible that the entire populations of each country may The relationship between environmental change at some point need to be permanently resettled. and migration is by no means straightforward. This is significant not just in terms of numbers The nature of the environmental impact (the population of Kiribati is about 100,000 matters. There will be short-term and often and of Tuvalu about 10,000). It also raises only internal migration as a result of natural questions about how the sovereignty of these disasters such as tropical cyclones, heavy rains, states and their citizens would be maintained in and floods. Slow-onset events such as drought the absence of a territory. and desertification will cause more permanent migration. Both types of impact are predicted Pacific Island countries are already regularly to increase significantly in the next few years affected by natural disasters, especially due to climate change, although the cyclones, droughts, and storm surges, and these relationship between climate change and too may become drivers of migration. Between environmental disasters remains contested. 2000 and 2011, about 300,000 people in Migration is not an inevitable outcome – in Papua New Guinea were affected by natural many circumstances people may be able to disasters, almost 90,000 in Fiji, and about adapt and stay put. Important variables will 80,000 in Vanuatu. 5 Such disasters do not include poverty, social vulnerability, and the necessarily result in migration; in Samoa, for capacity of the government to provide example, effective Disaster Risk Reduction alternatives to migration. Even where migration (DDR) has helped mitigate the effects of does take place, it will often be in response to cyclones. But in other countries these natural multiple drivers. Climate change may, for disasters have already caused significant example, be a threat multiplier and exacerbate displacement, although usually within the disparities, reduce livelihoods, or fuel conflict affected country, at least initially. The World in a country, making it hard to discern Bank has reported that the number of natural

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disasters in the region is increasing change. The urban poor, in particular, will feel significantly, and that the disasters are the impact of environmental change, because becoming more intense.6 Increasing they are more exposed to hazards (for example, urbanisation, deforestation, and the destruction in makeshift housing), live in areas that lack of mangrove swamps are simultaneously hazard-reducing infrastructure like drainage making many Pacific islands more vulnerable to systems, and have less access to state assistance the effects of environmental change. According in the event of a natural disaster. ‘Stepwise’ to the Asian Development Bank, virtually all migration, where rural-urban migration the island states in the Pacific are considered to precedes an increase in international migration, be ‘hotspots’ of substantial environmental is a widely observed phenomenon. impact, with coastal areas most at risk.7 Estimates for the number of people predicted to Finally, there is already considerable migration be displaced in and from Pacific Island from the Pacific Island countries to Australia, countries as a result of environmental change and other Pacific Rim countries. by 2050 range in one study from 665,000 to This matters because international migration 1,725,000. 8 precipitated by the effects of environmental change is likely to follow existing migration There are three reasons in particular why networks, supported by migrants already environmental change in the Pacific Island settled in specific destination countries. Richard countries may become a factor in migration in Bedford and Graeme Hugo have identified the region, including to Australia. Perhaps the three distinct migration networks originating in most important is that the demographic the Pacific region. One is centred on Melanesia, changes in most of these states over the next from where there is already a substantial ten or twenty years will exacerbate the ‘youth diaspora from Fiji; a second on Micronesia bulge’ that many already face. The bulk of where Kiribati and Nauru have strong population growth to 2050 is predicted to be in migration links with Australia and New Melanesia, and particularly Papua New Zealand; and a third on Polynesia where Guinea, although significant population growth regional links are strongest with New Zealand. is also anticipated in Solomon Islands and These migration networks have been reinforced Vanuatu. Young adults tend to be the most by preferential migration legislation, in mobile age group and this ‘youth bulge’ is particular in New Zealand, although more likely to lead to a substantial increase in the recently in Australia also. numbers of migrants seeking to move within the region. This is likely to be the case even as countries such as Papua New Guinea achieve Why is it in Australia’s national interest to significant economic growth.9 respond now?

Second, much of the internal migration in It is clearly in Australia’s national interest to Pacific Island countries that has occurred in the manage future migration. In terms of managing past few decades has moved people to cities environmental migration any policy will need that are especially vulnerable to environmental to include a number of elements.

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Most obviously, the potential for opportunity to import required skills to environmental migration to Australia can be Australia. reduced by acting now to support adaptation to environmental change in the affected countries. One of the potential costs to Australia of not Except in extreme cases such as where low- managing environmental migration is that it lying islands submerge, resulting in no option may increase irregular migration. The problems but to leave, migration is just one of a range of caused by irregular migration hardly need to be strategies in response to environmental change, rehearsed: it undermines the exercise of and may often not be the preferred option. national sovereignty, by challenging the control Many people may stay put and accept of the state over its borders and territory; it environmental change, even though their living places a strain on public services, especially standards may decline. Others may remain and health and education; and it exposes vulnerable adapt in a more active way, for example by migrants to exploitation, and the risk of harm building defences, changing agricultural and death. Research outside Australia indicates practices, or adopting new livelihoods. Many that the migrant smugglers who tend to will relocate within their countries rather than monopolise irregular migration are often across national borders. The choice that people associated with other crimes and can become a make between these strategies is likely to threat to public security.1 0 The ongoing debate depend on factors such as their access to over unauthorised boat arrivals in Australia resources, their resilience and vulnerability, and demonstrates how even a relatively small their previous experience of migration. number of irregular migrants can undermine public confidence in the ability of government However effective any adaptation measures to manage migration. prove, some migration to Australia from the Pacific Island countries is still likely to occur. It Another reason to plan for environmental is in Australia’s interest, therefore to plan now migration from the Pacific now relates to for that migration in order to maximise the Australia’s long-standing development and benefits and minimise the costs. The humanitarian commitment to the region. development of a policy framework on Environmental change already does and will environmental migration is an opportunity to continue to undermine livelihoods, multiply the plan well ahead of time to ensure Australia has challenges of urbanisation, exacerbate as much control as possible on the number of vulnerability to food and water insecurity, and migrants that may be admitted, their profile, heighten competition over scarce resources in the conditions of their arrival, the length of affected countries.1 1 Planned migration is one their stay, and the rights to which they will be way of supporting adaptation to environmental entitled. The extent to which it may be change in Pacific Island countries most at risk. 12 appropriate to apply existing migration It can provide new livelihoods for people who categories can be assessed in advance, and lose land or work as a result of environmental appropriate criteria could be applied to avoid change. Migrants can support those who concerns about ‘queue-jumping’. remain at home through remittances. Migration Environmental migration may even provide the may also alleviate pressure on resources in

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countries at risk, allowing a smaller population the curve is important in migration policy- to remain there for longer.1 3 making.

The idea that Australia should start planning At the same time, it is important to for environmental migration is not new. In acknowledge that the current political 2006, the Labor Party proposed a Pacific Rim environment in Australia is not conducive to coalition to accept climate change ‘refugees’,1 4 ambitious, expensive new policies on while in 2007, Greens Senator Kerry Nettle migration. The proposal made in the next proposed the Migration (Climate Refugees) section therefore balances multilateral with Amendment Bill 2007.1 5 In 2009, an enquiry by unilateral initiatives, builds upon existing an Committee recommended commitments in Australia, and provides cost- a review of the legal and policy framework for effective options. communities forced to resettle as a result of environmental change.1 6 Developing a national policy framework There are three reasons why it is appropriate to on environmental migration return to the idea now – although the proposal being made in this paper is substantially The proposal here is for a national policy different from the ideas proposed, and rejected, framework on environmental migration with in the past. One reason is that the evidence base three main components: continued support for for environmental migration is improving. current multilateral initiatives on While forecasting future migration will always environmental migration; capacity-building in be difficult, the relationship between origin and transit countries to cope with environmental change and migration is far environmental migration; and the development better understood than it was even five years of national legislation for environmental ago. Furthermore, there is clear evidence that migrants arriving in Australia. people are already being displaced from their homes in the Pacific Island countries as a result Supporting multilateral initiatives of the effects of environmental change.1 7 Currently, multilateral initiatives on Second, it is striking that a number of countries environmental migration are focusing on the that are far less likely than Australia to be development and consolidation of normative directly affected by environmental migration principles that can inform regional or national have already conducted national policy reviews, laws and policies on environmental migration. including the United Kingdom1 8 and even One example is the Nansen Principles. These Switzerland. Closer to home, New Zealand is Principles were developed at a conference co- currently developing a policy on environmental hosted by the Government of Norway and migration.1 9 Finally, there is a significant benefit UNHCR in Oslo in June 2011, and adopted by to preparing a policy framework in advance of over 200 delegates, including representatives of significant environmental migration, rather UN and civil society organisations. They than during or after the event. Getting ahead of recommend building on existing norms in international law, and identify the

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responsibility of local, national, and consultations to agree proposed norms. After international actors.2 0 normative principles are agreed, Australia could become a sponsoring state for them at Normative principles are important because the multilateral level. It might, for example, they provide a basis upon which to respond to support research, training, dialogue, public the protection and assistance needs of relations, and dissemination activities to raise environmental migrants. At the moment there awareness of the principles; or encourage are no agreed principles for how to deal with adherence at the UN level or among regional migrants who cross national borders for partners. environmental reasons. Indeed, there is still a debate about the legal status of people who lose Multilateral initiatives are not a panacea, their territories completely as a result of rising however, and they would not replace, or justify sea levels, however unlikely that eventuality delaying, the simultaneous development of a may actually be. The direct analogy for national response. In particular, beyond developing normative principles to fill establishing normative principles, there is not protection gaps is the evolution of the Guiding much more that is likely to happen at a Principles on Internal Displacement. These multilateral level on this issue. The prospects comprise a non-binding expert document that for a new international treaty or a protocol to has been used to lobby for national legislation the 1951 Refugee Convention are slim and on internal displacement in about 30 countries have significant shortcomings. Obstacles and at the regional level.2 1 include: resistance from the Office of the UN High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR) The development of normative principles on which is the guardian of the 1951 Convention, environmental migration is a process that and its governing member states; the length of Australia is well-placed to support, given its time it takes to negotiate international experience in multilateral negotiations conventions in the field of human rights; and (including support for the Guiding Principles the reality that many states would refuse to on Internal Displacement), and considerable ratify a Protocol or new Convention. 22 These Australia-based expertise on this topic. legal and political obstacles are compounded by Australia has recently agreed to become a a lack of clear empirical evidence on the member of the Steering Group for the Nansen numbers of people expected to be displaced Principles. There are a number of things across borders by the effects of environmental Australia could do in this regard. It could change, the time horizon involved, and the develop a comprehensive and widely accepted extent to which this is likely to be a regional or definition of environmental migration. It could truly global issue. promote collaboration between the various separate initiatives currently aimed at Capacity-building in origin and transit developing normative responses to countries environmental and other forms of ‘crisis’ or Given the shortcomings of multilateral ‘survival’ migration. It could convene a series of approaches, a second component of a national interdisciplinary and multi-stakeholder policy framework on environmental migration

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should focus on capacity-building in countries displaced. The provision of training on the that are most likely to be affected. The most rights of the internally displaced is also a important element of this would be to support necessary component, targeting government adaptation to environmental change. This is policy-makers at the national, regional and already identified as a priority in the Pacific local levels, the military and the police, camp region in the AusAID 2012-13 budget, which administrators, commissioners and staff of provides for an additional $384.5 million over national human rights institutions, four years, including to support governments parliamentarians and civil society, as well as and communities to plan for and deal with the the displaced themselves, among others. effects of environmental change.2 3 It is important that this level of commitment is National legislation maintained over the next decade. AusAID also Neither support for adaptation in origin funds the Adaptation to Climate Change countries nor capacity-building in transit Initiative through the UN Framework countries will stop some environmental Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), migrants trying to move to Australia, however. which provides grants in the Pacific region for a A third component of a policy framework is range of projects including health, education, therefore to develop national legislation on food security, agriculture and fisheries. environmental migrants.

Affected states should also be encouraged to Three main models can be considered. One is sign up and adhere to the Guiding Principles on to develop a new humanitarian category for Internal Displacement, which provide a legal environmental migrants. This is what was basis for protecting people displaced within proposed in the Greens 2007 Bill, which called their own countries by the effects of for a ‘climate refugee’ visa category for people environmental migration. Adequate protection fleeing ‘a disaster that results from both at home is one way to reduce the pressure to incremental and rapid ecological and climatic move abroad, but especially in some small change and disruption, that includes sea-level Pacific Island countries there is simply a lack of rise, coastal erosion, desertification, collapsing capacity to focus on such medium- and long- ecosystems, fresh water contamination, more term challenges. Implementing national laws frequent occurrence of extreme weather events and policies on internal displacement thus such as cyclones, tornados, flooding and requires considerable capacity-building. One drought, and that means inhabitants are unable aim for capacity-building efforts is raising to lead safe or sustainable lives in their awareness of the problem of internal immediate environment’.2 4 displacement; for example, through information and sensitisation campaigns for The Bill attracted considerable criticism in the relevant authorities, including the military and Senate and did not proceed to a vote. Some police as well as the public. Data collection is criticisms concerned technical issues – for another step, with the important proviso that example that the proposed Bill placed too much such efforts should not jeopardise the security, responsibility for determining the criteria for protection or freedom of movement of those defining a disaster and the conditions for

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admitting ‘climate refugees’ in the hands of the the 2010 earthquake. Some analysts have Minister. Other speakers questioned the legal suggested that the European Union Temporary validity of the concept ‘climate refugee’. Three Protection Directive of 2001 may be interpreted concerns recurred in the criticisms. One was to apply to mass influxes of people from that Australia was already doing its fair share natural disasters. Within the EU, Sweden and in terms of responding to climate change, and Finland have both amended their asylum and in terms of global migration. A second was that human rights laws to incorporate some element Australia should not be taking unilateral action of ‘environmental migration’.2 6 The 2005 on a multilateral issue. And the third was the Swedish Aliens Act provides for the possibility financial implications of the proposal. to provide subsidiary protection on environmental grounds; while the Finnish Had it succeeded the Greens legislation would Aliens Act of 2004 explicitly acknowledges that have made Australia the first country in the unusual environmental circumstances can world to develop a specific visa category for produce mass influxes of migrants who require environmental migrants, potentially making it a temporary protection. magnet for new migrants from around the world. There were other legitimate questions None of these examples of national policies and about what impact the creation of a new visa legislation is an ideal solution to the problem, category would have on the current however. TPS only applies to people already humanitarian resettlement category – would the resident in the at the time of a quota for the latter be reduced to provide for natural disaster, and not to people fleeing the the former? The fact that the legislation did not event. Invoking the EU Temporary Protection pass also reflected the reality that the current Directive would require agreement by a political climate on migration issues makes it majority of EU Member States, which most very difficult to pass new legislation at this commentators deem unlikely; and the focus of time. A second model is to amend existing the Directive on ‘mass influxes’ would probably legislation to provide temporary protection or not cover most environmental migrants that refugee-like protection to environmental would likely arrive in Europe (most migrants. One advantage of such an approach environmental migrants in a European context is that legislative protection responses have would probably arrive gradually as the result of already been adopted by other industrialised slow-onset events such as desertification in the states, and so Australia would not be setting a Middle East and North Africa). Neither of the precedent.2 5 In the United States, Temporary relevant provisions in Sweden or Finland has Protected Status (TPS) was introduced as part ever been tested, and there are reservations of the 1990 Immigration Act to provide at least about how they would function in practice; for limited protection to people who are fleeing, or example, it is unclear whether the protection reluctant to return to, potentially dangerous envisaged is temporary or permanent. situations in their home country. Between 1995 and 1999, the status was extended to people This then leaves a third model that provides the from Montserrat following volcanic eruptions most realistic and pragmatic approach for there, and more recently to Haitians following Australia to take. This would be to use existing

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labour migration programs to extend migration the challenge of environmental migration. First, opportunities to people vulnerable to or at least some environmental migrants will affected by environmental change. This is not require protection that is not conceived of in without precedent. There is some debate, for labour migration programs. Filling these example, about whether the New Zealand ‘protection gaps’2 8 will require some crossover Pacific Access Category visa may evolve into a between labour migration and humanitarian migration policy for environmental migration, resettlement schemes. Second, where people are although that is not its intention. It was moving as a result of irreversible environmental conceived as a traditional labour migration change, for example rising sea levels, a program rather than an instrument for permanent solution will be required, rather humanitarian protection.2 7 It is based on a than the seasonal and temporary options ballot system, stipulates age restrictions for provided in the Seasonal Workers Scheme. applicants, who must have a job offer in New There are, however, models from elsewhere for Zealand, a minimum income requirement, and facilitating the transfer of migrants employed a reasonable level of English. Furthermore, the on temporary labour migration schemes into scheme targets a limited number of countries permanent residence, based on a set of clear only, and thus represents a limited response to rules and criteria.2 9 Third, it may be that those environmental migration. Nevertheless, the affected by environmental change do not have scheme does target Pacific Islands at risk of the appropriate skills for the work on offer. environmental change, including Tuvalu, One way around this is to offer Pacific Kiribati, and Tonga, and arguably provides a Islanders targeted training to develop the skills basis for admitting people from these islands on that are required. This could be done, for environmental grounds. For example, the small example, through an extension of the Australia- quota could be extended, or the ballot system Pacific Technical College that provides and criteria for selecting candidates revised, or Australian-standard skills and qualifications for the target countries increased, without vocational careers that are in high demand in significant legislative changes. Australia. There is already an Australian government scheme to train Kiribati nurses that Against this background, Australia’s new allows them to stay in Australia to work. Pacific Seasonal Workers Scheme may provide a starting-point for responding to migration Such difficulties notwithstanding, the model of arising from the effects of environmental responding to environmental migration through change in the Pacific Islands. Started as a pilot existing labour migration programs is scheme in 2009 for people from Kiribati, appealing. It could be achieved without Tonga, Vanuatu, and Papua New Guinea, the significant new legislation or additional scheme has now become permanent and been expenditure or changing institutional extended to include Nauru, Samoa, Solomon arrangements. It targets a limited number of Islands, and Tuvalu. countries only, defined by Australia’s national interest, and thus would not become a global No one should be under any illusions that the magnet for environmental migration. It Scheme provides a comprehensive response to combines options for pre-empting and

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responding to the effects of environmental Developing a national policy framework on change. And for all these reasons, it is likely to environmental migration is not an exercise in be the most palatable of policies for public speculation: it is managing a future challenge, consumption. and it is in Australia’s national interest. There are good reasons to act now, not least because It should be said however, that adopting this there is no convincing multilateral response on model, or even the others discussed above, the horizon. A national policy framework should be preceded by a comprehensive proposed need not require Australia to act national review of environmental migration alone. It need not make Australia a magnet for and its implications for Australia. The terms of environmental migrants. It need not require reference for such a review would include a significant new legislation or additional systematic evaluation of the existing data and expenditure. It can help reduce irregular evidence on the impacts of environmental migration. And it may even help fill labour- change on migration in the region; an market gaps. The opportunity for proactive and assessment of the direct and indirect longer-term policy-making on migration may implications of environmental migration for come as relief to a government that has been Australian national interests; an inventory of fire-fighting in recent years, and may help win relevant processes and their shortcomings; back some public confidence in Australian consultations with appropriate stakeholders at migration policies. the national and regional levels; and recommendations on mechanisms for responding to environmental migration at a national, regional, and international level.

Conclusion

Environmental migration brings together two of the key policy challenges facing Australia today. Acknowledgements Significant displacement and migration I am grateful for research assistance in prompted by environmental change effects in preparing this paper from Andonis Marsden the Pacific Islands is a near certainty. As the and Sarah Tishler, and for very helpful nearest developed nation, the regional comments on an earlier draft of this paper economic and political leader, and the hub of from: Anthony Bubalo, , significant established migration networks with Jenny Hayward-Jones, Justin Lee, Jane many of the affected countries, Australia is McAdam, Dougal McInnes, David McRae, bound to become a target destination for many Annmaree O’Keeffe, Claire Young, and the environmental migrants. Department of Immigration and Citizenship.

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NOTES the Australian and New Zealand Immigration 1 Jon Barnett cited in Elizabeth Ferris, Michael Forum, , 30 July 2008. Cernea, Daniel Petz, Brookings Institution-London 10 Khalid Koser, When is migration a security issue? School of Economics Project on Internal http://www.brookings.edu/research/opinions/2011/0 Displacement, On the front line of climate change 3/31-libya-migration-koser. and displacement: learning from and with Pacific 11 Camillo Boano, Roger Zetter, and Tim Morris, Islands, Washington, DC, Brookings Institution, Environmentally displaced people, Forced Migration 2011, p 19. Policy Briefing 1, Oxford, Refugee Studies Centre, 2 UN Environment Programme, Livelihood security: 2008. climate change, migration, and conflict in the Sahel, 12 Foresight, Migration and global environmental Geneva, UNEP, 2011. change: future challenges and opportunities, 3 For example, see Etienne Piguet, Antoine Pécoud, London, Government Office for Science, 2011. and Paul de Guchteniere, Introduction: migration 13 Jane McAdam, Climate change, forced migration, and climate change, in Etienne Piguet, Antoine and international law. Pécoud, and Paul de Guchteniere (eds), Migration 14 , Our drowning neighbours: and climate change, Cambridge, Cambridge Labor’s policy discussion paper on climate change in University Press, 2011, pp 1-34. the Pacific, Canberra, ALP, 2006. 4 Jane McAdam, Climate change, forced migration, 15 Parliament of the Commonwealth of Australia, and international law, Oxford, Oxford University Migration (Climate Refugees) Amendment Bill 2007. Press, 2012, pp 123-27. 16 Cited in Jane McAdam, Climate change, forced 5 EM-DAT : OFDA/CRED International Disaster migration, and international law, p 106. Database, www.emdat.be. 17 Elizabeth Ferris, Michael Cernea, and Daniel Petz, 6 Sofia Bettencourt, Richard Croad, Paul Freeman, et Brookings Institution-London School of Economics al, Not if but when: adapting to natural disasters in Project on Internal Displacement, On the front line the Pacific islands region: a policy note, Washington, of climate change and displacement. DC, World Bank, 2006. 18 Foresight, Migration and global environmental 7 Asian Development Bank, Addressing climate change. change and migration in the Asia and Pacific: final 19 Jane McAdam, Refusing refuge in the Pacific, in report, Manila, ADB, 2012. Etienne Piguet, Antoine Pécoud, Paul de Guchteniere 8 Jon Barnett cited in Elizabeth Ferris, Michael (eds), Migration and climate change, pp 102-37. Cernea, Daniel Petz, Brookings Institution-London 20 The Nansen Conference: climate change and School of Economics Project on Internal displacement in the 21s t century, Oslo, Norway, June Displacement, On the front line of climate change 5-7, 2011: http://www.unhcr.org/4ea969729.pdf. and displacement, p 19. 21 Khalid Koser, Climate change and internal 9 Richard Bedford and Graeme Hugo, Population displacement: challenges to the normative movement in the Pacific: review and prospect, framework, in Etienne Piguet, Antoine Pécoud, Paul Progress Report on a Joint Study for the Australian de Guchteniere (eds), Migration and climate change, Department of Immigration and Citizenship and the pp 289-305. New Zealand Department of Labour, presented at 22 Frank Biermann and Ingrid Boas, Preparing for a warmer world: towards a global governance system

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to protect climate refugees, Global Environmental Politics 10 (1) 2010:pp 60-89. 23 AusAID Budget 2012-13. 24 Parliament of the Commonwealth of Australia, Migration (Climate Refugees) Amendment Bill 2007. 25 Jane McAdam, Climate change displacement and international law: complementary protection standards, UNHCR Legal and Protection Policy Series, Geneva, UNHCR, 2011. 26 Will Somerville, Environmental migration, Washington, DC, Migration Policy Institute, 2011. 27 Jane McAdam, Environmental migration governance, University of Faculty of Law Research Series, Paper 1, 2009. 28 Foresight, Migration and global environmental change. 29 Khalid Koser, Study of employment and residence permits for migrant workers in destination countries, International Migration Papers No. 95, Geneva, ILO, 2009.

Page 14 ABOUT THE AUTHOR

Dr Khalid Koser is Deputy Director and Academic Dean at the Geneva Centre for Security Policy, and a Non-Resident Fellow at the Lowy Institute. He is also Non-Resident Senior Fellow in Foreign Policy Studies at the Brookings Institution, Research Associate at the Graduate Institute of International and Development Studies in Geneva, and Associate Fellow at Chatham House. Dr Koser is chair of the UK’s Independent Advisory Group on Country Information. He is editor of the Journal of Refugee Studies and on the editorial board for Global Governance; Ethnic and Racial Studies; Population, Space, and Place; Forced Migration Review; and the Journal of Conflict Transformation and Security.

www.lowyinstitute.org