Savills China Research Shanghai Briefing Office sector July 2018 Image: Eco City, Jing’an SUMMARY Nearly one million sq m of Grade A office space was handed over in Q2/2018. This area, together with the large amount of supply in the next six months, will likely mark 2018 as the year of peak supply. Five new projects were launched currently averaging RMB9.0 per sq m onto the core office market in Shanghai per day. in Q2/2018, adding 441,500 sq m of “While financial de-risking is one new office space and bringing the core Five new projects, or 563,400 sq Grade A office stock to 8.7 million sq m. m of new office space, was handed of the main tasks over the next over in the decentralised market in Net take-up picked up, totalling Q2/2018, pushing up the decentralised three years, the government also 382,200 sq m in Q2/2018, up 440% stock to 4.1 million sq m by the end of quarter-on-quarter (QoQ) due to a low the quarter. Decentralised stock now released tax cuts and incentives base in Q1/2018. accounts for close to one-third of the market. to support businesses.” James Core market vacancy rates were stable at 12.4%, although they remained Due to the large supply, vacancy Macdonald, Savills Research up 2.2 percentage points (ppts) year-on- rates in decentralised areas continued to year (YoY). rise, up 1.7 ppts in Q2/2018 to 35.5%, the highest level in the past three years. Core market rents remained flat on Rents remained flat on an index basis, an index basis in Q2/2018, with rents averaging RMB5.8 per sq m per day. savills.com.cn/research 01 Briefing |Shanghai office sector July 2018 Leasing Market driven by the high pre-commitment be for self-use. In addition, two Core Market – Supply, Take-up rates and high proportion of self-use of the three office towers of the and Vacancy in new projects, as well as strong Pudong Financial Square in Zhuyuan Five new Grade A office projects take-up in Puxi non-prime areas. For area were bought by Alibaba were launched onto the core market example, 70% of the office space (wholly for self-use) and Taikang in Q2/2018, adding 441,500 sq m in the 124,000-sq m Harbour City Life Insurance (approximately 20% of new office space. The city’s core (Phase 3) was bought by China self-use). Grade A office stock, as a result, Industrial Bank in 2013 and would increased to 8.7 million sq m by the end of Q2/2018. New projects included: GRAPH 1 Grade A office core market supply, take-up and - Harbour City Ph3, Lujiazui, Pudong vacancy, 2000-Q2/2018 STV EN New Area Supply (LHS) Take-up (LHS) Vacancy (RHS) 1.2 18% - Raffles City Changning T1, Hongqiao, Changning District 1.0 15% - Haoyuan project, Huangpu District 0.8 12% - Lujiazui Financial Holding Plaza, 0.6 9% Zhuyuan, Pudong New Area million sq m - Pudong Financial Square, 0.4 6% Zhuyuan, Pudong New Area 0.2 3% Core market absorption picked up, totalling 382,200 sq m in Q2/2018, 0.0 0% up 440% compared to Q1/2018. The 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18Q2 big growth in demand was largely Source: Savills Research Page 1 TABLE 1 Grade A office core market performance, Q2/2018 Supply (sq m) Take-up (sq m) Vacancy Stock (sq m) Pudong 323,200 225,700 10.4% 4,170,600 Puxi 118,300 156,500 14.3% 4,509,000 All 441,500 382,200 12.4% 8,679,600 Source: Savills Research TABLE 2 Notable leasing transactions, Q2/2018 Tenant EN Tenant CN Tenant industry Project Business district Area leases (sq m) Ping’an Finance 平安金融 Finance LCM Pudong others 11,000 HiLink 智联 Retail Tian’an Centre Old Huangpu 10,000 CICC 中金公司 Finance Azia Centre Lujiazui 3,400 Third Bridge 高临管理咨询 Professional service One Museum Place Nanjing Road (W) 2,000 CSL Behring 杰特贝林 Healthcare The Centre Huaihai Road (M) 1,700 Source: Savills Research 02 Briefing |Shanghai office sector July 2018 Strong market absorption offset Core market – rent per sq m per day in Q2/2018, the pressure from large supply, Core market rents remained flat respectively, while non-prime Pudong resulting in stable vacancy rates at on an index basis in Q2/2018, with and Puxi rents averaged RMB8.2 12.4%, although they remained up rents currently averaging RMB9.0 and RMB7.5 per sq m per day, 2.2 ppts YoY. Vacancy rates in Old per sq m per day, up 0.5% on a respectively, during the period. Huangpu’s Grade A office market YoY basis. This doesn’t mean there continued to grow in the past two were no rental changes at all, but Decentralised market years, from 6.6% in Q2/2016 to a combination of rent increases in Despite no new supply being 21.9% in Q2/2018. This was a relatively new projects and longer recorded in Q1/2018, the second result of tenants relocating from rent-free period offered to tenants quarter received as much as 563,400 older buildings and the addition of offset rental reductions in older sq m of new office space in the new projects. Location is no longer buildings. decentralised market, with five new everything as tenants now have projects being handed over. Total plenty of options and new business Prime Pudong and Puxi rents decentralised stock, as a result, was areas are maturing. averaged RMB11.3 and RMB10.3 pushed up to 4.1 million sq m by the end of Q2/2018. New projects included: GRAPH 2 Grade A office core market rental indices, - Crystal Plaza, Qiantan, Pudong Q1/1999-Q2/2018 New Area All Puxi prime Pudong prime Puxi non-prime Pudong non-prime 220 - World Trade Centre Ph2, Qiantan, Pudong New Area 200 Q2/2010–Q2/2018 38.8% increase from trough 180 - LCM, Pudong New Area 160 - Poly Greenland Plaza & Anlian Tower, East Bund, Yangpu district 140 120 - CES West Bund Centre, Xuhui Q2 Q2 / 1999 = 100 Q3/2008–Q2/2010 36.8% decrease from peak Riverside, Xuhui district 100 80 Due to the large supply, vacancy rates in decentralised areas 60 continued to rise 1.7 ppts in Q2/2018 to 35.5%, the highest level of the Source: Savills Research past three years. Rents remained flat on an index basis, averaging RMB5.8 per sq m per day, 35% lower than GRAPH 3 Rent and vacancy by business district, Q1/2018 vs. the core market average. RV CBD EN Q2/2018 Decentralised market take-up largely Q1/18 rent (LHS) Q2/18 rent (LHS) picked up in Q2/2018, up 61% YoY, Q1/18 vacancy (RHS) Q2/18 vacancy (RHS) 12 50% totalling 304,100 sq m. This was primarily a result of pre-commitments 11.3 11.3 in new projects. For example, Merck 10 10.310.3 10.310.3 40% Group, a global healthcare science 8 30% and technology company, leased 8.2 8.2 8.1 8.1 8.1 8.1 8,000 sq m in the Crystal Plaza. 7.2 7.2 7.1 7.1 6 6.6 6.6 20% 5.7 5.8 Qiantan, one of the city’s master- RMB psqm per day 4 10% planned decentralised business districts, aims to appeal to 2 0% multinational and financial firms looking for an alternative to the costly and crowded Lujiazui financial hub. Many reporters and analysts expect Prime areas Non-prime areas the area to become a “2.0 version” Source: Savills Research of Lujiazui; however, the status Page 1 savills.com.cn/research 03 Briefing |Shanghai office sector July 2018 of Lujiazui is hard to duplicate or GRAPH 4 surpass due to its size, maturity and Qiantan vs. Lujiazui central location. 18Q2 stock 2022F 60% Sales market 50% En-bloc rate Vacancy The en-bloc office investment market Qiantan saw a slowdown in transaction 40% volume due to lack of debt availability and rising costs, with only RMB5.5 30% billion in deals concluded in 1H/2018. 20% More transactions of decentralised Lujiazui office properties with a relatively low price per unit were recorded 10% in Q2/2018. Potential buyers and sellers of core assets continue to 0% 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 have a difference of opinion on Rent (RMB psm pday) market prospects and current market Source: Savills Research values. Meanwhile properties in decentralised areas that offer higher yields and have more capital value Strata-title strata office space within the Middle appreciation potential are popular Nearly 20 projects (including existing Ring Road. Transaction prices among investors. In addition, and new projects) in the office averaged RMB31,100 per sq m. business parks are drawing a lot of market received pre-sale certificates investment interest because of the in Q2/2018, totalling 485,900 sq m Market outlook growing rental projections, driven of office space. Overall transaction 2H/2018 is scheduled to receive by demand from R&D and tech volumes totalled 310,900 sq m in another 761,400 sq m and 594,000 companies, and higher yields. Q2/2018, with transaction prices sq m of new Grade A office space averaging RMB31,500 per sq m. handed over into the core and Gross yield remained stable in decentralised markets, respectively, Q2/2018, while NOI yield was Transaction volumes rebounded in although it is unlikely all of these will approximately 3.4%.