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New Technology and the Prevention of Violence and Conflict

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New Technology and the Prevention of Violence and Conflict APRIL 2013 ADVANCE COPY New Technology and the Prevention of Violence and Conflict EDITED BY FRANCESCO MANCINI Empowered lives. Resilient nations. Cover Photo: “Can Big Data From ABOUT THE EDITOR Cell Phones Prevent Conflict?” © E. Letouzé. FRANCESCO MANCINI is the Senior Director of Research at the International Peace Institute. Disclaimer: The views expressed in this paper represent those of the authors and not necessarily those of IPI. IPI welcomes consideration of a ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS wide range of perspectives in the IPI owes a debt of thanks to all of its donors, whose pursuit of a well-informed debate on support makes publications like this one possible. In critical policies and issues in interna- tional affairs. particular, IPI would like to thank the United Nations Develop ment Programme (UNDP) and the United States IPI Publications Agency for International Development (USAID) for their Adam Lupel, Editor and Senior Fellow Marie O’Reilly, Associate Editor support and partnership on this project. Particular Thong Nguyen, Editorial Assistant gratitude for guidance during the project goes to Anne Kahl, Chetan Kumar, Ozonnia Ojiello, and Jelena Raketic at Suggested Citation: UNDP’s Bureau for Crisis Prevention and Recovery; to Francesco Mancini, ed., “New Technology and the Prevention of Joseph Hewitt, Neil Levine, and Rachel Locke at USAID’s Violence and Conflict,” New York: Office of Conflict Management and Mitigation; and to International Peace Institute, April Alberto Cutillo and Taimi Strehlow at IPI. In addition, IPI, 2013. USAID, and UNDP would like to thank the members of the © by International Peace Institute, expert reference group and the anonymous reviewers of 2013 the case studies for their insights. All Rights Reserved www.ipinst.org CONTENTS Executive Summary . iii Introduction. 1 Francesco Mancini Big Data for Conflict Prevention: New Oil and Old Fires . 4 Emmanuel Letouzé, Patrick Meier, and Patrick Vinck Using Information and Communication Technologies for Violence Prevention in Latin America. 28 Robert Muggah and Gustavo Diniz Early Warning and the Role of New Technologies in Kenya . 42 Godfrey M. Musila Conflict Cure or Curse? Information and Communication Technologies in Kyrgyzstan. 56 Anna Matveeva New Technologies and Conflict Prevention in Sudan and South Sudan. 71 Helena Puig Larrauri Conclusion: New Technology in Conflict Prevention . 87 Francesco Mancini and Marie O’Reilly Annex. 93 MEMBERS OF THE EXPERT REFERENCE GROUP iii Executive Summary There are now 6 billion cell phone subscriptions in strengthening prevention efforts that involve new the world, and one third of the world’s population is technologies. 1 online. These numbers are growing rapidly, partic- 1. Even if you crowdsource your hammer, not ularly in the developing world, and they every problem is a nail. demonstrate an unparalleled level of global New technologies have the potential to make interconnectivity. They also point to the unprece- huge contributions to violence- and conflict- dented amount of data that we are generating while prevention efforts, but they are not a panacea for using new information and communication holistic solutions. International organizations technologies (ICTs): in 2012 alone, humans and governments should examine all the tools at generated more data than over the course of their their disposal for preventing conflict, and civil entire history.2 society organizations should not be blinkered by This report explores the ways in which ICTs and their particular thematic focus. the data they generate can assist international 2. Consider the context. actors, governments, and civil society organizations to more effectively prevent violence and conflict. It The cases show that socioeconomic, cultural, examines the contributions that cell phones, social and demographic factors will all influence media, crowdsourcing, crisis mapping, blogging, whether technology can have a positive impact, and big data analytics can make to short-term which technology would be appropriate, and efforts to forestall crises and to long-term initiatives how technologies could or should be combined. to address the root causes of violence. Five case International organizations and governments studies assess the use of such tools in a variety of should make needs assessments and feasibility regions (Africa, Asia, Latin America) experiencing studies that address these factors standard different types of violence (criminal violence, practice. Civil society org anizations should also election-related violence, armed conflict, short- include such needs assessments or conflict and term crisis) in different political contexts (restric- peace assessments in their proposals when tive and collaborative governments). seeking funding from donors. The cases demonstrate clearly that employing 3. Do no harm. new technologies for conflict prevention can Failure to consider the possible knock-on effects produce very different results depending on the of applying a specific technology can lead to context in which they are applied and whether or fatal outcomes in violent settings. Spoilers also not those using the technology take that context leverage new technologies to incite violence, into account. This is particularly true in light of the promote conflict, and perpetrate crimes. As dramatic changes underway in the landscapes of such, a conflict-sens itive approach remains vital violence and conflict on a globa l level. As such, from conception to completion of any initiative instead of focusing on supply-driven technical involving new technologies. As part of project fixes, those undertaking prevention initiatives design and implementation, every actor should should let the context inform what kind of identify possible spoilers, conduct a cost-benefit technology is needed and what kind of approach analysis that incorporates levels of risk, develop will work best. mechanisms to mitigate risks, and create contin- With this in mind, lessons and insights from gency plans. across the cases point to seven promising steps for 1 International Telecommunication Union (ITU), “ITU World Telecommunication/ICT Indicators Database, 2012,” available at www.itu.int/ITU-D/ict/statistics/material/pdf/2011%20Statistical%20highlights_June_2012.pdf ; United Nations, “The Millennium Development Goals Report 2012,” New York, 2012, p. 63. 2 The rate of data production now more than doubles every year, meaning that every year we produce more data than all previous years combined. iv EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 4. Integrate local input throughout, and don’t International organizations, governments, and reinvent the wheel. civil society actors shoul d establish consensus Examples abound where an absence of local around questions of privacy, access, and use of input meant there was a lack of buy-in from the digital data in any given initiative. This will affected communities, project financing was make prevention efforts more legitimate in the unsustainable, the credibility of the information eyes of the affected communities, and ultimately collected was questionable, or there was duplica- more effective. tion of work. Once a project is underway, 7. Foster partnerships for better results. continual consultation with and involvement of There are indications that prevention initiatives t he affected community is vital. In general, the that drew on the complementary strengths of application of new technological tools to preven- international donors, governments, the private tion efforts at the local level works best when sector, and civil society proved more effective. integrated into existing civil society initiatives. International organizations and governments 5. Use technology to help information flow are well placed to foster such partnerships and horizontally more than vertically. should invest in doing so for more promising Horizontal citizen-to-citizen ICT initiatives can results. help to connect more “warners” and “respon- Given the frequent paralysis at national and ders” more quickly and closer to the cr isis. They international levels when it comes to preventing can also contribute to communities’ resilience in conflict, the empowerment of individuals to partic- the long term. International organizations ipate in conflict-prevention initiatives in their own should consider supporting spontaneous micro- communities and societies may be one of the most initiatives in this area, provide funding to significant innovations created by advances in develop local capacity, improve connectivity technology. This is particularly true when it comes between different initiatives, and help the to bridging the persistent gulf between warning and sharing of best practices. Civil society organiza- response. Much more research is needed to assess tions should identify and reward skilled individ- how ICT can be used to generate action at the local uals and groups in local communities who can level, as well as to inform or warn. adopt new technologies for preventing violence In the long run, however, the most effective and conflict. approach to using new technologies for conflict 6. Establish consensus regarding ownership, use, prevention may well be the one needed in preven- and sharing of information. tion more broadly: one that successfully balances New technologies make it possible for interna- both grassroots, decentralized efforts and the more tional organizations and government agencies to rationalized and coordinated activities of govern- acquire more information and more granular
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