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Housing Needs & Demand Assessment

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Housing Needs & Demand Assessment FINAL CONSULTATION DRAFT North Ayrshire Housing Needs & Demand Assessment 2020 HNDA20 Senior officers within North Ayrshire Council, with responsibility for Housing (Physical Environment) and Planning (Economic Development & Regeneration) have reviewed and approved this research, fulfilling the requirements of Core Process 6. Photo Photo Yvonne Baulk, Caitriona McAuley, Head of Physical Environment Head of Economic Development & Regeneration <date> <date> Signature Signature Head of Physical Environment and Head of Economic Development & Regeneration will sign off final draft after consultation and any subsequent amendments On behalf of the North Ayrshire Housing Market Partnership Trudi Fitzsimmons, Team Manager (Housing Strategy), North Ayrshire Council, June 2021 i Contents SUMMARY OF FINDINGS .......................................................................................................................... 1 Housing Estimates ................................................................................................................................... 2 Housing Market Drivers ......................................................................................................................... 4 Housing Profile ........................................................................................................................................ 7 Specialist Provision .............................................................................................................................. 10 INTRODUCTION ....................................................................................................................................... 13 HOUSING MARKET DRIVERS .................................................................................................................. 17 Geography .......................................................................................................................................... 18 Demography ........................................................................................................................................ 21 Economy ................................................................................................................................................ 33 Housing Costs ....................................................................................................................................... 45 HOUSING PROFILE .................................................................................................................................. 53 Stock ...................................................................................................................................................... 54 Quality .................................................................................................................................................. 60 Pressures ............................................................................................................................................... 64 Solutions ................................................................................................................................................ 73 HOUSING ESTIMATES ............................................................................................................................. 77 SPECIALIST PROVISION .......................................................................................................................... 81 Accessible & Adapted Housing ......................................................................................................... 82 Housing for Wheelchair Users ........................................................................................................... 86 Non-permanent Housing ..................................................................................................................... 87 Supported Housing .............................................................................................................................. 88 Care/Support for Independent Living .............................................................................................. 92 Site Provision etc .................................................................................................................................. 96 APPENDICES.............................................................................................................................................. 99 A1: The Housing Market Partnership .............................................................................................. 100 A2: Consultation ................................................................................................................................. 104 A3: Specialist Provision: Strategic Landscape ............................................................................... 107 ii Summary of Findings HNDA20 is an evidence base of estimated housing need & demand in North Ayrshire for 2022 onwards and is based on Scottish Government Guidance and ‘HNDA Tool’. The Government’s tool is populated with socio-economic data detailed within this report. A Housing Market Partnership has been established to oversee this process and have evaluated HNDA20 internally before submitting to the Scottish Government for formal assessment in accordance with their robust and credible criteria. This chapter summarises findings and discusses the issues that must be considered in the forthcoming Local Housing Strategy and/or Local Development Plan. Detailed analysis is provided in the body of the report. “CORE PROCESS 5: Key findings have been summarised, at the start of the HNDA, using the templates provided (and amended to comply with accessibility requirements). Figures should be shown for each five -year period of the projection and the cumulative total at the end of the projection (this is automatically output by the Tool )” 1 Housing Estimates Estimating Need & Demand Generally, HNDA20 would be expected to report housing estimate figures in five yearly increments for 20+ years. However, the HNDA tool has forecast a need for only social housing between 2022 and 2026 and then zero housing need across all tenures thereafter. Two scenarios were run through the HNDA tool: • Principal Migration is based on the findings reported throughout this document, and • Economic Resilience is where we have opted to take a more optimistic view based on a positive outcome from local economic recovery strategies (for measures used see Housing Estimates section) FIGURE 1: KEY FINDINGS TEMPLATE: ESTIMATE OF ADDITIONAL (NEW) FUTURE HOUSING UNITS FOR NORTH AYRSHIRE 2022-2026 Source: Centre for Housing Market Analysis Template (layout amended to meet accessibility requirements) Total households with existing Number of years to clear need (net) existing need 2,300 5 Migration Projection 2016-2041 Principal Low High Migration Migration Migration Total number of new households over the -8,466 -9,414 -7,244 projection period Total households over the projection period Scenario 1: Principal Scenario 2: Economic who may afford (HNDA Projection Period: Migration Resilience 2022-2026 (inclusive)) Social Rent 1,264 1,339 Mid-Market 0 0 Private Rented 0 0 Owner Occupation 0 0 Total additional future units 1,264 1,339 The Housing Market Partnership have agreed the housing estimate range for 2022- 2027 as 1,264 to 1,340 social rented units (Figure 1). Housing Supply Targets The output from the HNDA tool is at odds with the Council’s interventions, investments, partnerships, and aspirations for growing both the population and the economy of North Ayrshire, as well as our understanding and experience of local housing markets. The housing estimate figures do not consider policy interventions and approaches such as Ayrshire Growth Deal, Community Wealth Building, Economic Recovery Plan, Locality Outcome Improvement Plans, or Council Plan, all of which seek to grow both the population and the economy in North Ayrshire. Whilst housing estimates inform the setting of housing supply targets in the Local Housing Strategy and Local Development Plan, they are not intended to be the sole consideration. The forthcoming Local Housing Strategy and Local Development Plans should reflect this ambitious growth approach 2 and ensure that our public and private housing sectors have scope to respond. The table below sets out issues to consider when identifying housing supply targets: FIGURE 2 FUTURE NEED FOR ADDITIONAL HOUSING BROKEN DOWN BY HOUSEHOLDS WHO ARE LIKELY TO BE ABLE TO AFFORD... LHS/LDP Key Issues Owner- Socio-economic growth policies can lead to the creation of higher paid jobs, Occupation reduce the potential for the outward migration of economically active households, ultimately stimulating demand for good quality private sector homes. In Housing to 2040, the Scottish Government note that they will take action so that all homes, no matter their tenure, are required to meet the same standards, and we await further guidance on how to secure a fuller understanding of the stock quality in the owner-occupied sector, including the sectors suitability in terms of meeting the needs of our ageing and disabled/life limited demographic. This information is key to ensuring that when needed, homes are available to support independent, community-based, living. Private There is a notable information gap around quality issues in the private rented Renting sector. This should be addressed in order to better focus the
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