EPP Party Barometer April/May 2019

The Situation of the European People´s Party in the EU and an Outlook on the EP Elections

(as of 12 May 2019)

Created by Olaf Wientzek Konrad-Adenauer-Stiftung

Map templates by: www.kas.de Janine Höhle, HA Kommunikation, Konrad-Adenauer-Stiftung 10 hypotheses for the EP elections 1. For the electoral result, three dates (probably) will be important: 1. the seat distribution on 26 May, 2. the formation of political groups in the EP – until then many of the yet independent forces will join one of the political groups, others will change camp. The third date would be the exit of the UK and the departure of the British MEPs. The number of MEPs would then sink from 751 to 705. 2. There will still be a clear pro-EU majority in the next EP. Depending on the scenario, the four moderate groups will have between 63 and 69% of the seats. 3. The EPP and the Socialists will lack the seats for a majority and need a third partner, p.ex. ALDE/Renaissance. 4. The EPP will likely remain the third-biggest group, even if Fidesz leaves the EPP Group. In this case however, the distance to the Socialists would shrink significantly. 5. Probably, there will be only two groups to the right of the EPP: it is unlikely that a third one could survive. At the same time, it is unlikely that all parties to the right of the EPP merge into one group. Rivalries and differences on policies (i.a. relations to Russia) might be too strong. In addition, more moderate ECR group members are unlikely to team up with Salvini or an AfD/Le Pen Group. 6. There will likely be no (moderate) left-liberal majority in the next EP. Even adding the far-left group GUE/NGL would not lead to a working majority in the EP. 7. On the other hand, it seems unlikely that a moderate majority could be forged without the Socialists. Several elements increase the uncertainty of the outcome and can still lead to significant shifts: 8. It remains unclear where the Italian 5-Star-Movement will be heading. 9. The participation of the UK in the EP elections increases uncertainty beyond the yet unknown date of departure: Opinion polls are very volatile. Especially the result of the Socialists/the far-right could change significantly. 10. The unclear future of big member parties in the moderate party families (Hungarian Fidesz/ Romanian PSD) could lead to significant shifts after the elections. Summary and latest developments

• Parties belonging to the EPP family are (in national polls) the strongest political family in 13 countries (12 without Fidesz). The Socialist family is leading in 5/6, the liberal in 4, the far-right populists in 2-3, the Eurosceptic Conservatives in 1-2, the Greens in 1. Independent movements (France) in 0-1 • If one considers only the political colour of the strongest political force (and not the entire party family), an EPP party (incl. Fidesz) is leading in 9 countries, the Socialists (including the PSD) in 10- 11, the ALDE in 4, the ECR in 2-3, Greens, far-right populists in 1-2, independents in 0-1. • In many countries, the advantage of the leading political family in the opinion polls is very slim (France, Netherlands, Slovenia Slovakia, Finland, Belgium, Sweden, Bulgaria). • In the European Council, 9 Heads of State and Government belong to the EPP family (incl. Orban), 8 to the Liberals (soon likely 7), 5 to the Socialists/Social Democrats (soon likely 6), 2 to the Eurosceptic Conservatives, one to the European Left. 3 are formally independent

* On 20 March, the EPP Political Assembly (supported by Fidesz) decided to suspend the EPP membership of Fidesz. Without the party, the EPP would be the strongest pol. family in 12 countries, provide the strongest single party in 8 countries and have 8 Head of State and Goverment in the European Council. Bildnachweis: fotolia.com Strongest political family in opinion polls for nat. elections (April/May 2019)

Sweden

Finland EPP Family

PES / S&D Family (Social Democrats & Socialists) ACRE / ECR Family (Eurosceptic Conservatives) Estonia ALDE Family (Liberals)

Far-Right, Right-wing populists (EAPN et al.) Latvia Diverse populists Denmark GUE/NGL (Far-Left) Lithuania Greens / EFA Ireland Netherlands Macron/Renaissance Poland United Kingdom Germany Slovakia Belgium *On 20 March, the EPP and Fidesz decided to suspend Fidesz‘ membership in the EPP Luxembourg Czechia

Hungary* France** 4. Romania** Slovenia Italy Croatia Bulgaria 2.

1. Austria Portugal Spain Greece

Cyprus Malta Created by: Olaf Wientzek Bildnachweis: fotolia.com Strongest single party in opinion polls for nat. elections (April/May 2019)

Sweden

Finland EPP Family

PES / S&D Family (Social Democrats & Socialists) ACRE / ECR Family (Eurosceptic Conservatives) Estonia ALDE Family (Liberals)

Far-Right, Right-wing populists (ENF et al.) Latvia Diverse populists Denmark GUE/NGL (Far-Left) Lithuania Greens / EFA Ireland Netherlands Independents Poland United Kingdom Germany Slovakia Belgium *On 20 March, the EPP and Fidesz decided to suspend Fidesz‘ membership in the EPP. Luxembourg Czechia In April the Socialists put the relations to the PSD on ice until June.

Hungary* France 4. Romania Slovenia Italy Croatia Bulgaria 2.

1. Austria Portugal Spain Greece

Cyprus Malta Created by: Olaf Wientzek Bildnachweis: fotolia.com Strongest party family in opinion polls for EP-elections

Sweden

Finland EPP Family

PES / S&D Family (Social Democrats & Socialists) ACRE / ECR Family (Eurosceptic Conservatives) Estonia ALDE Family (Liberals)

Far-Right, Right-wing populists (ENF et al.) Latvia Diverse populists Denmark GUE/NGL (Far-Left) Lithuania Greens / EFA Ireland Netherlands Independents Poland So far no opinion United Kingdom polls for EP elections Germany Slovakia Belgium *On 20 March, the EPP and Fidesz decided to suspend Fidesz‘ membership in the EPP Luxembourg Czechia

Hungary* France 4. Romania Slovenia Italy Croatia Bulgaria 2.

1. Austria Portugal Spain Greece

Cyprus Malta Created by: Olaf Wientzek Bildnachweis: fotolia.com Election results of the strongest EPP member party in the last national election Sweden (2022) 19.84 in % / year of next election in brackets Finland (2023) 17.00

0 – 5% Estonia (2023) 5 – 10% 11.41 10 – 15% Latvia (2022) 15 – 20% 6.69 Denmark (2019) 20 – 25% Lithuania (2020) 3.40 25 – 30% Ireland (2021) 22.63 30 – 35% 25.50 Netherlands (2021) 12.40 35 – 40% Poland (2019) United Kingdom (2022) 40 – 50% 24.09 Germany (2021) 0.00 Slovakia (2020) 32.90 5.80 6.50 Belgium (2019) *On 20 March, the EPP and Fidesz decided Czechia (2021) to suspend Fidesz‘ membership in the EPP 11.61 Luxembourg (2023) 28.31 Hungary (2022)* 4. 49.27 Romania (2020) France* (2022) 20.04 22.23 Italy (2023) 14.01 Croatia (2020) 36.27 Bulgaria (2021) 2. 32.65 1. Austria (2022) Portugal**** (2019) Spain (2023) 31.50 36.86 Greece (2019) 16.70 Slovenia (2022) 28.10 24.92 Cyprus (2021) Malta (2022) 30.69

Created by: Olaf Wientzek 43.68 Bildnachweis: fotolia.com Cumulated election results of all parties belonging to the EPP family (12 May 2019) Sweden In % 26.16 Finland 20,90 0 – 5%

5 – 10% Estonia 10 – 15% 11.41 15 – 20% Latvia 20 – 25% 6.69

25 – 30% Denmark Lithuania 30 – 35% 4.20 Ireland 22.63 35 – 40% 25.50 Netherlands 40 – 50% 12.40 Poland > 50% United Kingdom 29.22 Germany 0.00 Slovakia 32.90 11.11 15.76 Belgium *On 20 March, the EPP and Fidesz decided Czechia to suspend Fidesz‘ membership in the EPP 16.60 Luxembourg 28.31 Hungary* 4. 49.27 Romania France* 31.58 22.23 Italy 15.72 Croatia 36.27 Bulgaria 2. 35.71 1. Austria Portugal Spain 31.50 36.86 Greece 16,70 Slovenia 28.10 34.70 Cyprus Malta 30.69

Created by: Olaf Wientzek 43.68 Bildnachweis: fotolia.com Cumulated election results of the PES/S&D family (Socialists Sweden & Social Democrats) in the last 28.40

national parliamentary election (12 May 2019) Finland In % 17,73

0 – 5%

5 – 10% Estonia 9.81 10 – 15% Latvia 15 – 20% 19.80 20 – 25% Denmark Lithuania 25 – 30% 26.30 Ireland 15.04 30 – 35% 6.60 Netherlands above 35 % 5.70 Poland United Kingdom 7.55 Germany 40.00 Slovakia 20.50 7.27 28.28 Belgium Czechia 20.50 Luxembourg 17.60 Hungary 4. 17.27 Romania France 45.68 6.06 Italy 18.72 Croatia 33.82 Bulgaria 2. 27.19 1. Austria Portugal Spain 26.86 32.32 Greece 28,68 Slovenia 6.29 9.93

Cyprus Malta 20.70

Created by: Olaf Wientzek 55.04 Possible seat distribution in the coming EP – Scenario 1 – Status Quo (with UK)

Presumption: Party membership in the groups remains constant, the Eurosceptic EFDD Group (UKIP+5- Star-Movement) may (1.1) or may not (1.2) survive. In both cases, the UK is still a member of the EU

Scenario 1.1: EFDD group survives Scenario 1.2: EFDD dissolves

14 Unaffiliated Unaffiliated 47 28 Div. far-right 47 46 Div. far-right 71 38 EAPN (ex-ENF) EAPN (ex-ENF) 148 148 71 42 EFDD ECR ECR 68 68 EPP EPP 54 54 ALDE/Renaissance ALDE/Renaissance Greens/EFA Greens/EFA 100 100 179 179 S&D S&D GUE/NGL GUE/NGL Remarks: • The UK‘s participation in the EP elections benefits particularly the Socialists (though less than expected a few months ago), the ECR (despite the – likely – weak Tory result) and the EFDD Group, even though the latter has little chance to survive in its current form. Possible seat distribution in the coming EP – Scenario 1 – Status Quo (without UK)

Presumption: The UK leaves the EU, the number of seats is reduced to 705 (some of the UK‘s seats are redistributed among other member states).

Scenario 1.3: The UK leaves the EU, the EFDD dissolves

16 49 45 Unaffiliated Div. far-right 73 134 EAPN (ex-ENF) ECR 58 EPP 47 ALDE/Renaissance Greens/EFA 99 184 S&D GUE/NGL Possible seat distribution in the coming EP – Scenario 2 – Europe en Marche

Presumptions: yet unaffiliated parties join moderate groups. It is still unclear whether the 5-Star- Movement would join a moderate force, try to create a group on its own or join the Far-left.

Scenario 2.1.: With the UK Scenario 2.2.: without the UK

25 Unaffiliated 16 47 Unaffiliated 38 49 26 Div. far-right Div. far-right 71 73 154 EAPN (ex-ENF) EAPN (ex-ENF) ECR 139 68 58 ECR EPP EPP ALDE/Renaissance 61 55 ALDE/Renaissance Greens/EFA Greens/EFA 181 184 106 S&D 105 S&D GUE/NGL GUE/NGL

Remarks: • In the best case, moderate pro-European groups would hold 69% of the seats. Even more than 70% would be possible if the 5-Star-Movement would join the Greens. Possible seat distribution in the coming EP – Scenario 3 – United Radicals/Shrinking Centre

Presumption: far-right and far-left parties manage to reunite in fewer groups and absorb unaffiliated parties. In addition, parties from moderate party families (ALDE, Fidesz (not KDNP)) would join the eurosceptic families. It is yet unclear whether Fidesz would join ECR or EAPN (+/-12). Unclear, whether the PSD would remain with the S&D

Scenario 3.1.: with the UK Scenario 3.2.: Without the UK 20 27 20 4 Unaffiliated Unaffiliated 49 52 86 Div. far-right 88 Div. far-right (+12) EAPN (ex-ENF) (+12) EAPN (ex-ENF) ECR ECR 156 (-11) 79 (-12) 139 (-11) 70 (-12) EPP EPP ALDE/Renaissance ALDE/Renaissance 61 55 Greens/EFA Greens/EFA 169 172 104 S&D 105 S&D GUE/NGL GUE/NGL

Remarks: • If Fidesz leaves the EPP to join either ECR or EAPN (ex-ENF), it could play an important role for the balance of power between both groups. The membership of the right-wing-populist parties from the Scandinavian countries is uncertain; in this simulation they are included in EAPN. If the Five-Star-Movement joins GUE/NGL, the latter would have ca. 70 seats. Outlook on the EP elections in 2019 - Summary • Based on current opinion polls and weighing the different scenarios, the following seat distribution seems likely:

• EPP: ca. 180 seats (without Fidesz less than 170 seats) • S&D: ca.150 seats (without the Romanian PSD 140) after Brexit approx.140 seats • ALDE/Renaissance: ca 100 seats, possibly up to 110 • Greens/EFA: above 50 seats, up to 60 with UK MEPs • ECR: competition with EAPN, with UK 60-80 seats, without 55-70. • GUE/NGL: ca. 50 seats • EAPN (ex-ENF): competition with ECR, min. 70, up to 100 seats • Potential Five-Star-Movement-group (or former EFDD with BREXIT of Nigel Farage): rather unlikely. Potential: 25-30 seats, before Brexit more than 40 Bildnachweis: fotolia.com Results of parties belonging to the EPP familly in the 2014 EP elections Sweden in % 19.58 Finland 27.80 0 – 5%

5 – 10% Estonia 10 – 15% 13.90 15 – 20% Latvia 20 – 25% 46.19

25 – 30% Denmark Lithuania 30 – 35% 9.10 Ireland 17.43 35 – 40% 22.28 Netherlands 40 – 45% 15.18 Poland > 45% United Kingdom² 38.93 Germany 0.00 Slovakia 35.30 25.90 33.32 Belgium Czechia 16.89 Luxembourg 37.66 Hungary 4. 51.48 Romania France 40.63 20.81 Italy 21.69 Croatia 34.15 (41.42) Bulgaria 2. 36.85 1. Austria Portugal Spain 26.98 29.95 Greece 26.99 Slovenia 22.72 41.44 Cyprus Malta 37.75

Created by: Olaf Wientzek 40.02 Bildnachweis: fotolia.com Strongest party family in the 2014 EP elections

Sweden

Finland EPP Family

PES / S&D Family (Social Democrats, Socialists) ACRE / ECR Family (Eurosceptic Conservatives) Estonia ALDE Family (Liberals)

Far-right, right wing populists (ENF et al.) Latvia Misc. populists Denmark GUE/NGL (Far-left) Lithuania Greens /EFA Ireland Netherlands Independents Poland United Kingdom Germany Slovakia

Belgium Czechia

Luxembourg Hungary 1 The Socialists were the strongest force 4. Romania immediately after the elections. Due to PNL France Joining the EPP, the EPP is now the stronger political family Italy Croatia Bulgaria 2.

1. Austria Portugal Spain Greece Slovenia

Cyprus Malta Created by: Olaf Wientzek Government participation of the EPP family Bildnachweis: fotolia.com Government participation of parties affiliated to the EPP,

as of 12 May₁ Sweden

Finland Coalition talks in Finland have started without the participation of EPP forces

Government without EPP participation, but Head of State belongs to the EPP family Estonia

Parties of the EPP family are part of the government (shaded: government negotiations ongoing, particpation unclear) Latvia Head of State or Government belongs to the EPP family Denmark Lithuania

Ireland Netherlands

Poland United Kingdom Germany Slovakia *On 20 March, the EPP and Fidesz decided to suspend Fidesz‘ membership in the EPP Belgium Czechia

Luxembourg Hungary* 4. Romania France Italy Croatia Bulgaria 2.

1. Austria Portugal Spain Greece Slovenia

Cyprus Malta Created by: Olaf Wientzek Bildnachweis: fotolia.com Heads of State and Government and their political family (as of 12 May)

Sweden

Finland In Finland coalition talks have begun, PM EPP: Christian Democrats; Centre-Right likely to change from Liberal to Socialist PES/S&D: Social Democrats / Socialists

ACRE/ECR: Eurosceptic Conservatives Estonia AALDE: Liberals

Greens/EFA Latvia Div. populists Denmark Far-Left (GUE/NGL) Lithuania In Lithuania an independent candidate and Far-Right Ireland a candidate with an EPP background are in the second round of the presidential Netherlands elections Independent Poland United Kingdom Germany Slovakia *On 20 March, the EPP and Fidesz decided to suspend Fidesz‘ membership in the EPP Belgium Czechia

Luxembourg Hungary* 1 The President (EPP family) re- 4. Romania₁ presents Romania in the European France Council. The Prime Minister belongs to the Socialist family. Italy² Croatia

Bulgaria 2.

1. Austria Portugal Spain Greece Slovenia

Cyprus ²Conte is independent, but Malta Created by: Olaf Wientzek was a 5Stelle candidate Bildnachweis: fotolia.com The EPP Family in the EU – Which parties belong to the EPP? Sweden Moderaterna (MOD) Kristdemokraterna (KD) Finland Kokoomus (SK) KD

Estonia Isamaa Latvia Vienotiba

Denmark Lithuania DKF (C) TS-LKD Ireland KD Fine Gael Netherlands CDA Poland United Kingdom PO Germany PSL (no EPP member party) Slovakia CDU / CSU Czechia KDH Belgium KDU-CSL *On 20 March, the EPP and Fidesz decided Most-Hid to suspend Fidesz‘ membership in the EPP TOP 09 CD&V, CDH SMK Luxembourg CSV Hungary 4. Fidesz* / Romania France* KDNP PNL Les Républicains Italy PMP Croatia RMDSZ Forza Italia SVP HDZ Bulgaria 2. AP GERB 1. Austria UDC BCM PATT DSB Portugal ÖVP Spain UDF PSD Greece PP CDS-PP Slovenia SDS ND N.Si SLS Cyprus Malta DISY Created by: Olaf Wientzek PN Notes

* The figures for France refer to the LR results achieved in the second round of the parliamentary elections; the shares of votes obtained by independent rights (1.68%) or by the UDI (ALDE) are not included. ** There have been no polls in France on the legislative elections since the last national parliamentary elections, only on European elections, for Romania the ISCOP polls on the EP elections are also used for the national level. *** In Belgium, polls are conducted at the regional level. In order to obtain an adequate result at the national level, these results were weighted according to the number of voters (compulsory voting). Despite compulsory voting and the relatively similar voter turnout in the various regions, there may be small discrepancies. In Belgium, the partner parties CD&V, CSP and CDH only compete on a regional basis, and the results in the individual regions are weighted accordingly. The CSP only takes part in European elections. In national elections, it is part of the CDH because the Belgian House of Representatives is composed by region (Flanders, Wallonia, Brussels) and not by language community. In Luxembourg, the polls are conducted regionally, the results being weighted according to the number of voters (compulsory voting) to calculate the national strength. Despite compulsory voting and the relatively similar voter turnout in the various regions, small deviations may occur. **** In Portugal, a PSD and CDS-PP electoral alliance was formed in the last national elections, so both values of the PSD are not comparable with the result of the parliamentary elections.

Further notes: In several countries (e. g. Slovenia, Bulgaria, Latvia, Lithuania), the undecided and non-voters are included in the total (100%) in the polls. The poll values have been extrapolated accordingly. Example: Party A has 13% in the polls. 30% of respondents will not vote. 20% of respondents are undecided. Accordingly, support for Party A is reported to be 26%.

In Croatia, the EPP party HSS was a member of the Social Democratic People's Coalition in the elections and did not receive a separate result. Correspondingly, the data are not quite comparable; the calculation of the difference has not been made. The election result noted for the Social Democrats therefore refers to the entire electoral alliance, which also did not include PES parties (such as the HSS). End of February the HSS announced its willingness to leave the EPP.

In Germany, the CDU and CSU are not listed as two separate parties due to the faction community and the always aggregated polling figures.

Some of the parties in the ACRE family are right-wing populist or have strong right-wing populist positions. Since this is a now (or for the time being) an established party family, parties belonging to it are listed as part of the ACRE family and not as "right-wing populist". This category, on the other hand, includes the parties belonging to the ENF or EFDD group in the EP, as well as other independent right-wing populist or right-wing extremist forces.

1 The list usually refers to the heads of government. Heads of state (in the case of a different party affiliation than the government) are only shown (separately) if they are represented in the European Council (case of Iohannis in Romania). In the case of France, no EPP participation in the government is shown, since the official EPP party LR is not officially part of the government.

² While the EPP has no member party in the UK, since February 2018, two Tory MEPs have switched from the ECR Group to the EPP Group

Sources for polls: Ipsos (Belgium), Trend (Bulgaria), voxmeter (Denmark), Forsa/Forschungsgruppe Wahlen (Germany), Kantar/Norstat (Estonia), Kantar (Finland), Ifop (France), Metron (Greece), YouGov (UK), RedC (Ireland), EMG (Italy), Ipsos (Croatia), SDKS (Latvia), Vilmorus (Lithuania), Sondesfro (Luxembourg), Malta Today (Malta), Ipsos (Netherlands), RA (Austria), Ibris (Poland), Aximage (Portugal), ISCOP (Romania), Inizio (Sweden), Focus (Slovakia), Mediana (Slovenia), NC Report (Spain), Kantar (Czechia), Závecz Research / Szazadveg (Hungary), Prime Consulting, CYMAR (Cyprus)

The party barometer is updated every four weeks and available on www.kas.de .