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Desarrollo Del Motor De Cálculo De Un Simulador De Incendios Forestales Por: L

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Desarrollo Del Motor De Cálculo De Un Simulador De Incendios Forestales Por: L Desarrollo del Motor de Cálculo de un Simulador de Incendios Forestales Por: Lic. Ariel Torazza Presentado ante la Facultad de Matemática, Astronomía y Física y el Instituto de Altos Estudios Espaciales Mario Gulich como parte de los requerimientos para la obtención del Grado de MAGISTER EN APLICACIONES ESPACIALES DE ALERTA Y RESPUESTA TEMPRANA A EMERGENCIAS UNIVERSIDAD NACIONAL DE CORDOBA Junio , 2014 ©IG - CONAE/UNC © FaMAF - UNC DIRECTOR Dr Marcelo Scavuzzo Instituto Mario Gulich. CONAE/UNC. Falda del Cañete, Córdoba, ArGentina. CO-DIRECTOR Dr Elvio Pilotta Facultad de Matemática, Astronomía y Física. UNC. Ciudad Universitaria, Córdoba, ArGentina. Agradecimientos A mis directores Marcelo Scavuzzo y Elvio Pilotta, por la inmensa confianza y apoyo que me han depositado todo este tiempo. A la gente de Parque Nacional Quebrada del Condorito y a Germán Jaacks, por brindarse en plena predisposición a la colaboración. A la gente del IMAA-CNR en Italia, por su colaboración. Al apoyo de mi familia, a pesar de la distancia. A mis hermanos del club, por seguirme hasta Córdoba luchando por una idea. A mis compañeros de la maestría, por todo lo que nos tocó vivir y compartir aquí y en Italia. A los amigos que hice en IG-CONAE, siempre dispuestos a darme una mano lo que dice mucho de un equipo de trabajo. A Laura Zalazar, por el inmenso aguante y compañía en los momentos duros. Dedicado a mi hijo Luciano. ÍNDICE RESUMEN .................................................................................................................. 7 ABSTRACT .................................................................................................................. 7 1. INTRODUCCIÓN ..................................................................................................... 1 1.1. FUNDAMENTOS .............................................................................................................................................. 1 1.1.1. La Combustión en un Incendio de Vegetación ............................................................................... 1 1.1.2. Fases de la Combustión con Llama ..................................................................................................... 2 1.2. BALANCES FÍSICOS Y TRANSFERENCIA DE CALOR ....................................................................... 4 1.2.1. Balances de Materia, Energía y Cantidad de Movimiento ........................................................ 4 1.2.2. Fundamentos de Transferencia de Calor ......................................................................................... 8 1.3. MODELOS MATEMÁTICOS Y SISTEMAS DE CÁLCULO ................................................................ 12 1.3.1. Modelos de Propagación de Incendios de Superficie ............................................................... 15 1.3.2. Sistemas de Cálculo de Incendios Forestales ............................................................................... 31 1.4. OBJETIVO GENERAL ................................................................................................................................... 36 1.5. OBJETIVOS ESPECÍFICOS ......................................................................................................................... 36 1.6. ESTRUCTURA DE LA TESIS ..................................................................................................................... 37 2. UTILIZACIÓN DEL SIMULADOR FARSITE ................................................................ 39 2.1. INTRODUCCIÓN ........................................................................................................................................... 39 2.1.1 Computación Científica .......................................................................................................................... 39 2.1.2 Simulación ................................................................................................................................................... 41 2.2. SIMULADOR FARSITE ................................................................................................................................ 45 2.2.1. Introducción al software FARSITE ................................................................................................... 45 2.2.2. Simulación en un Escenario de Italia .............................................................................................. 52 2.2.3. Resultados ................................................................................................................................................... 61 2.2.4. Mejoras en la Simulación ..................................................................................................................... 62 2.2.5. Propuesta para Barreras Cortafuego ............................................................................................. 67 3. MOTOR DE CÁLCULO CON AUTÓMATA CELULAR ................................................. 69 3.1. INTRODUCCIÓN ........................................................................................................................................... 69 3.1.1. Historia ........................................................................................................................................................ 69 3.1.2. Introducción de los AC ........................................................................................................................... 72 3.1.3. Autómatas Celulares Unidimensionales ........................................................................................ 73 3.1.4. Autómatas Celulares Bidimensionales ........................................................................................... 74 3.1.5. Aplicaciones de los Autómatas Celulares ...................................................................................... 77 3.2. SIMULADOR DE INCENDIOS DE VEGETACIÓN Y METODOLOGÍA PARA LA CONSTRUCCIÓN DE UN PROPAGADOR EMPÍRICO ............................................................................... 85 3.2.1. Ventajas de los AC en Simuladores de Incendios Vegetales .................................................. 85 3.2.2. Reglas del AC usado en Estela 1.00 .................................................................................................. 86 3.2.3. La Grilla ....................................................................................................................................................... 86 3.2.4. Cambio de Estados del AC de Estela 1.00 ...................................................................................... 87 3.2.5. La Condición Inicial del AC .................................................................................................................. 89 3.2.6. Vecindad de Moore Modificada Estocásticamente ................................................................... 90 3.2.7. Propuesta de Modelo Propagador ................................................................................................... 91 3.2.8. Cálculo de la Velocidad del Frente de Fuego sin Atenuaciones en la Dirección de Máxima Propagación ......................................................................................................................................... 97 3.2.9. Implementación ..................................................................................................................................... 100 3.2.10. Estela 1.00 .............................................................................................................................................. 100 3.2.11. Resultados .............................................................................................................................................. 104 4. MOTOR DE CÁLCULO CON PROPAGADOR ELÍPTICO ............................................ 113 4.1. INTRODUCCIÓN ........................................................................................................................................ 113 4.1.1. Morfología del Incendio ...................................................................................................................... 114 4.1.2. Características Físicas de un Frente de Incendio .................................................................... 115 4.1.3. Características Geométricas del Frente de Incendio .............................................................. 117 4.1.4. Principios de la Modelización de la Progresión de un Incendio ........................................ 122 4.2. PROPAGADOR ELÍPTICO ....................................................................................................................... 129 4.2.1. Implementación del Modelo Semiempírico de Rothermel (1972) ................................... 130 4.2.2. Modelos de Combustibles ................................................................................................................... 130 4.2.3. Generación de las Elipses ................................................................................................................... 132 4.2.4. Generación de los Polígonos ............................................................................................................. 138 4.2.5 Método Propuesto para el Cálculo de Áreas ............................................................................... 141 4.2.6. Problemas Numéricos .........................................................................................................................
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