2020 Record: 2-14 Total DVOA: -30.5% (26) 2021 Mean Projection: 6.1 wins On the Clock (0-5): 44% Pythagorean Wins: 2.8 (32) Offense: -20.5% (31) Postseason Odds: 13.0% Mediocrity (6-8): 39% Snap-Weighted Age: 26.3 (19) Defense: 4.7% (21) Super Bowl Odds: 0.5% Playoff Contender (9-11): 15% Average Opponent: 2.6% (8) Special Teams: -5.3% (29) Proj. Avg. Opponent: -0.8% (20) Super Bowl Contender (12+): 3%

2020: Ooh, nothing’s going to bring him back (he’s gone for good).

2021: The first days are the hardest days (don’t you worry anymore).

>>Welcome back to Fumblr, the NFL’s premier ser- his defense, letting have free reign to call vice for shopping for quick turnarounds, anti- all the Cover-0 blitzes he wanted. He demonstrated terrible tanking supplies, and complete franchise refur- personnel management both by placing injured players in the bishments. Remember: If You They Want You To lineup and by continuing to run out ineffective elderly play- Cook The Dinner, At Least They Ought To Let You ers he was comfortable with. He lied to the media about who Shop For The Groceries™. was calling the offensive plays, out of fear it would make his assistants look more competent than he was. We called Gase a >>Welcome back, The New York Jets. While we horrible result of a muddled search when he was hired, some- value all our customers, it’s our regular return- one more concerned with protecting his power than running a ing franchises that help us make the offseason team. If anything, we undersold it. content machine run as smoothly as it does. While you’re here, we’d love it if you’d rate your previ- >> You have successfully added the San Francisco ous orders. How likely are you to recommend your Treat boxset to your shopping cart. 2019 purchase of “The Experience” to a friend or colleague? Teams looking to recover from a terrible coaching regime tend to zig as hard as they can in the opposite direction with >>I’m sorry; we can only accept positive numbers their next hire. The Jets went from a soft-spoken defensive between 1 and 10. Your attempted inputs of “neg- coach in to an offensive disciplinarian in Gase, ative a zillion,” a frankly impressive breadth of and now have zagged back to the defensive side of the ball profanity, or a collection of rude emoji are not ac- with former 49ers defensive coordinator . But it’s ceptable responses. not just his on-field specialties that have made Saleh such a breath of fresh air. he failure of the Adam Gase era was more than a failure of T Xs and Os, though there was plenty of that to go around. >> View our recommended reviews for Robert You don’t go 9-23 by unleashing a high-powered, beautifully Saleh, from a wide variety of satisfied customers. schemed offense. The Jets lacked talent, for sure, but they also lacked an identity—neither physical nor finesse, without a key It is difficult to find a coach with more universal acclaim sense of logic or continuity to their play calling on offense. from his former players than Saleh. When the Jets made the The entire reason Gase got not one but two head coaching hiring official, it was greeted with showerings of praise from opportunities was based on the reputation he earned working Richard Sherman, Fred Warner, DeForest Buckner, Russell with in Denver. With only six games with a Wilson, and more. Where Gase has left a trail of disgruntled positive offensive DVOA over the last two years, the fewest in players and bad vibes in his wake, Saleh has a track record of the league, Gase utterly failed at the one thing he could hang players singing his praises—Houston, Seattle, Jacksonville, his hat on. San Francisco, you name it. Saleh’s players would run through a wall for him, which would be convenient if playing football >> Your request for a refund has been denied. Be- involved running through any walls. At the very least, bring- fore making your next purchase, we advise you to ing Saleh in should create a less toxic environment around the read the user reviews from previous customers. team. They may well be a two- or three-win team again, but getting free of the toxic atmosphere surrounding Gase should But more than that, Gase brought with him the same dis- make being a Jets fan significantly more fun going forward. function and disorder that soured his time in Miami. He alien- In fact, the last time you could find a sense of negativity ated his locker room, feuding with players in the media and surrounding Saleh was among San Francisco fans in 2018. alienating stars such as . He practically ignored When Saleh took over the 49ers’ defensive coordinator job, he 192 NEW YORK JETS 193

2020 NYJ DVOA by Week 2021 Jets Schedule 100%

Week Opp. Week Opp. Week Opp. 80%

1 at CAR 7 at NE 13 PHI 60% 2 NE 8 CIN 14 NO 40% 3 at DEN 9 at IND (Thu.) 15 at MIA 20% 4 TEN 10 BUF 16 JAX 0% 5 at ATL (U.K.) 11 MIA 17 TB 6 BYE 12 at HOU 18 at BUF -20% -40%

-60% inherited a woeful team lacking talent on all three levels, and -80% he was no miracle cure. The 49ers ranked 26th and 24th in de- -100% fensive DVOA in Saleh’s first two years, and there were some calls from outside the organization that the team should move on and find someone else; it clearly wasn’t working. Then, in 2019, Saleh adjusted his scheme, switching the defensive line to using more Wide-9 with a focus on penetration rather than placement a high-priced free agent and some odd- reading and reacting, and switching to a Cover 2-based system ly shaped pieces? in the secondary. It also helped to add and Dee Ford to a line already bursting with first-round picks, but don’t While the difference between a 3-4 and a 4-3 front is over- think the 49ers’ defensive improvement was solely due to per- blown, there’s no denying that Robert Saleh’s aggressive 4-3 sonnel. Dragging the 49ers’ defense to a sixth-place ranking in makes for a clunky change from Gregg William’s hybrid sys- 2020 despite leading the league in defensive adjusted games tem. Going from a two-gap to a one-gap scheme will change lost may well have been the coaching feat of the year. The responsibilities of linemen, alter the reads for the players be- 49ers had a different defensive starting lineup in all 16 games hind them, and so on and so forth. Some early growing pains last season; they were forced to put 37 different players on the are to be expected. field, second-most in the league. An average performance out Further complicating matters is the fact that the preexisting of that lot would have been commendable; gluing together a strengths of the Jets defense don’t line up with what Saleh very good defense out of that mess deserves an award. asks his team to do. The interior line trio of Quinnen Wil- liams, Foley Fatukasi, and John Franklin-Myers did some >> Please allow 12 to 18 months for delivery. great work for the Jets last season, but only Williams has an obvious place in the system. Williams fits perfectly as the Saleh’s no one-year wonder, but Jets fans hoping for a mira- DeForest Buckner-esque 3-technique. Saleh’s Wide-9 front cle turnaround in just one season are setting their expectations puts the edge rushers outside the tight ends, forcing the of- poorly. All else being equal, bad defenses with new schemes fensive line to slide outside to handle them and opening up tend to improve less than bad defenses in their second or third gaps inside. Williams was already fourth in ESPN’s Pass Rush year of a scheme. And all things are not equal in New York. You Win Rate among defensive tackles; giving him more isolated could make a strong argument that the Jets ended the 2020 sea- “don’t think, just go” snaps one-on-one with guards could see son with the least talented roster in all of football. Saleh and Joe his production soar even higher. Douglas did a good job this year finding talent in free agency The other interior lineman usually plays the 1-technique, and the draft, and the Jets could be significantly better at pretty and that’s a problem for both Fatukasi and Franklin-Myers. much every position this season. But considering the starting Saleh asks for speed and explosion from his interior linemen, bar was so low, there’s a lot of climbing to do before the Jets while Fatukasi is more of a power and timing guy. Sheldon approach respectable, much less good. Considering that mod- Rankins, despite being comparatively undersized, is more erately useful players like Tarell Basham and Jordan Jenkins Saleh’s traditional type. Meanwhile, while moving inside were let go, replaced by lesser-proven players who may be bet- helped Franklin-Myers excel last season, he’s not a fit for the ter scheme fits, it’s also not a clear progression forward. This 1-tech role at all. Franklin-Myers did play outside with Los is a rebuild, no doubt about it, and it will take some time to get Angeles, but he was a bland situational pass-rusher. Despite everything in place before .500 is a reasonable goal. his small frame, he performed much better inside as a 3-tech. But enough talk about generalities. Let’s look at the pieces Saleh routinely rotated seven linemen in San Francisco, so Saleh has, how they’ll fit into his scheme, and which parts there will be plenty of snaps for both Fatukasi and Frank- haven’t quite arrived yet. lin-Myers, but they’re not going to benefit from the scheme change nearly as much as Williams will. >> You attempted to order a defensive line fea- On the outside, Carl Lawson comes in from Cincinnati and turing five first-round picks, but those items are immediately becomes the best edge rusher the Jets have seen temporarily out of stock. May we suggest as a re- since 2017. His hype as a three-down breakout player last year 194 NEW YORK JETS has been a little oversold, but he had the fourth-highest pres- where the struggle is matching scheme and talent when they sure rate among defensive linemen last season. The slot across don’t quite perfectly align. Consider this an evaluation year to from him, however, is more of a mystery. Franklin-Myers will see which, if any, players will avoid getting replaced when the be in the mix for that other edge spot, but or ex- Jets inevitably draft a corner or three next year. 49er probably fit better. We also have no idea if the Jets are going to have that com- Honestly, the best lineup the Jets might have is a NASCAR- petent cover linebacker Saleh loves, because we still haven’t style speed package with Williams and Franklin-Myers inside, really gotten to see C.J. Mosley in a Jets uniform. When we joining Lawson and Curry on the edge. That’s not something last saw Mosley qualify for our leaderboards, he had an ac- Saleh has regularly used in the past, but it fits his philosophy ceptable 51% success rate in coverage, and he had been sharp- of putting as much speed on the field as possible, and Saleh er in previous years. But that last qualified season was 2018. has shown a willingness to adjust his scheme before. He’ll He played only two games in 2019 before getting injured and have to be creative and flexible to squeeze the most out of the opted out of 2020 entirely. Scheme fit isn’t the issue; he’ll fit talent he has available on the line. fine as the Mike. The question is just how good he’ll be after And he’ll have to squeeze it all out, because the rest of the such a long layoff, and whether he can play all three downs as defense isn’t ideal. a pass defender or will just serve as a two-down run plugger. Either is valuable compared to what the Jets rostered last sea- >> I’m sorry; your membership level does not quali- son, but the questions remain very much up in the air. fy you for “competent NFL .” >> Congratulations! Your cart full of offensive draft When Saleh switched to the Wide-9 front, he also switched picks qualifies for free shipping! to a Cover-2 behind it. Specifically, he used lots of Tampa-2, taking advantage of the excellent coverage abilities of Fred The back of the Jets’ defense will depend on Saleh coach- Warner to drop back and cover the deep middle. That was ing preexisting players up, because New York spent the lion’s pretty much all the 49ers ran in 2019, blitzing just 19% of the share of the offseason adding talent to their offense. Outside time and trusting their front four to generate pressure on their of Lawson, all their major free-agent acquisitions came on the own. The massive injuries they suffered in 2020 necessitated offensive side of the ball, as did their first four draft picks. that blitz frequency jumping to 32%, which meant fewer line- That means the imported San Francisco offensive coaching backers dropping into coverage, but the principles were the staff, in both coordinator Mike LaFleur and run game coordi- same. It’s a schematically simple defense which puts empha- nator John Benton, get the benefit of the Jets’ talent infusion sis on speed and aggressive tackling. right off the bat. The Jets don’t really have the cornerbacks to run a Tampa-2. Or a Cover-2. Or a Cover-1, Cover-3, or frankly Cover-Any- >> We’re sorry; the last “” just body. New York had holes to fill everywhere on the roster, sold out. May we suggest the Famous Idaho Potato and the secondary was mostly slapped with a “wait until next Bowl MVP instead? year” Post-it Note. Oh, the safeties are fine— isn’t Jamal Adams, but he was a rare playmaking highlight in That starts with second overall pick , who will the secondary. was brought in to compete assuredly be the opening day starter if for no other reason than with across from him. But the situa- the rest of the quarterback room is bare. If you feel like the tion is a nightmare. Brian Poole was the only Jets corner with Jets have been looking for a quarterback forever, you’re not at least 25 targets last season to have a success rate of over entirely wrong; the last New York passer to put up multiple 50%; he’s unsigned at the moment. seasons of positive DVOA was in the mid- There are no veterans penciled into the starting lineup. The 2000s. But now there’s a shiny new passer in town, who will Jets look to have the youngest cornerback group in the league, definitely turn things around, unlike . Or Chris- and it’s not a lineup filled with young studs, either. No one in tian Hackenberg. Or . Or . contention for a starting job was drafted earlier than the fifth OK, so Jets fans have reasons to be skeptical of a shiny new round. There’s a chance that the switch to a more press-/zone- passer coming in to save the day. And it’s fair if that skepti- based scheme from Gregg Williams’ more aggressive ap- cism is backed by the fact that we only saw one really great proach could help some of these young players, however, and season from Wilson in college, in the midst of a slapped-to- that’s what the 2020 Jets will have to rely on. There are some gether schedule in thanks to the pandemic; his 2019 season places you can find optimism, if you squint—the length and was derailed by injuries and he was still fairly raw as a true physicality of Bryce Hall, the 4.2s speed of . freshman in 2018. In addition, Jets fans may still hold a resid- But your guess as to who will start at cornerback is as good ual grudge against Adam Gase for winning just enough games as anyone else’s; none of last years’ players (especially the to cost them the first overall pick and Trevor Lawrence, with overmatched ) have any guarantees of a roster Wilson feeling like something of a consolation prize. spot, much less a starting job. The Jets will need two or three However, Lawrence and Wilson come out with nearly iden- players to take significant steps forward just to be- compe tical QBASE projections, and Wilson dwarfs the five other tent in coverage. This isn’t a situation like the defensive line, quarterbacks the Jets have picked in the top 100 since 2004. NEW YORK JETS 195

Lawrence’s track record made him the safer pick, but Wilson’s turning heads during OTAs and minicamp. Add in the useful success last year wasn’t just about facing inferior competition. returning to the fold and you have a massive Wilson had the best deep ball of the draft class, he’s excep- improvement over the Breshad Perrimans and Braxton Ber- tionally accurate to all areas of the field, and his creativity on rioses of the world. And that’s not including fourth-round pick the move has drawn comparisons to . Obvi- Michael Carter, who had one of the top receiving indexes in ously, that’s a massively unfair standard to hold Wilson to, our BackCAST projections, or , who has three and he’s not a perfect prospect—his processing prowess in his top-10 receiving DVOA seasons in Shanahan-style offenses. progressions perhaps pale parallel to other premium players— Sam Darnold never got the benefit of a receiving corps of this but Jets fans should be excited with their new passer. quality. Shanahan-style coaches—including LaFleur’s older brother And then there’s the offensive line. While trading up for an in Green Bay—typically look for their quarterbacks to utilize interior player such as first-round pick Alijah Vera-Tucker is a play-action and be effective when on the move with bootlegs bad use of resources, he’s a great fit for the outside zone-heavy and rollouts and things of that nature. Wilson checks those scheme that LaFleur and Benton will be bringing with them. boxes, throwing 19 and no on play- Vera-Tucker did a lot of outside zone-blocking at USC to great action last season; he was good for one or two 20-plus-yard effect. San Francisco’s system generally asks for lighter, ath- bombs per game off of play-action. When off-platform, his letic linemen, because they’re asked to move laterally more arm strength and improvisational skills allow him to make ex- than most other systems, even other outside zone situations. plosive splash plays without putting the ball in harm’s way. Vera-Tucker fits that model, with strong results in all the vari- He should be an ideal fit for what LaFleur plans to do. ous shuttle and jump drills during his pro day. He’ll be fine All that being said, we would expect Wilson to struggle pulling and trapping and finding moving targets in space. Put some, especially early in the year. He was rarely pressured at next to last year’s first round pick , who also has BYU, with quite a few games ending up with him basically plenty of outside zone experience from college, and the Jets playing seven-on-seven drills and picking apart defenses. He look to have a very solid left side of their line. They also have also has a bit of the Favreian gunslingerness to his game and to start three other linemen, but one step at a time. sometimes overtrusts his arm strength in a way that might get him into trouble against NFL defenses. Watching him adjust to >> Thank you for your continued patronage of Fum- the speed of the pro game and handling how quick the pocket blr. We hope you enjoy your new coaching package. can collapse when you’re not playing Western Kentucky will Please expect results in 2 to 3 business seasons. be key to his short-term development. The Jets are obviously a massive work in progress. Our pro- >> Your purchases qualify for speedy delivery! jections have them once again as the worst team in the league. Everything we’ve talked about here is a matter of potential or At the skill positions, the Jets’ offense will be based around projections or possibilities, and sometimes those simply do speed mismatches and spacing. In the passing game, the not come true. The secondary is likely to be atrocious, and 49ers love giving the ball quickly to athletic players in space. too much for the defensive line to overcome even if they’re Deebo Samuel led all qualified players in YAC+ last season, used to their maximum potential. There’s no evidence yet with George Kittle and Jeff Wilson each finishing in the top that Saleh will be an effective ; not all coordina- three at their positions as well. Part of this was aided by San tors step in and succeed off the bat. Rookies flop, offensive Francisco’s heavy use of 21 personnel, trying to get oppos- lines crumble, regimes fall. The best-case scenario—Wilson ing defenses to put that third linebacker on the field and then immediately stepping in as a quality quarterback, and Saleh’s challenging those slower players to keep up with their receiv- scheme resulting in a -esque first-year turn- ers. The Jets won’t run much 21 personnel; they do not have around—still might not be enough to have the Jets sniffing a fullback. Instead, they’ll probably look more like Mike’s double-digit wins. We’re being charitable with some of our brother’s offense in Green Bay, substituting more two-tight descriptions above because we’re talking about how pieces end sets to try get the same effect. ’s role should might work or could work. Some of them won’t and will need increase; he’ll be asked to be a more physical player than he to be replaced next year. has in recent years, and we might see as a Kyle But even if the Jets are once again battling for the top pick Juszcyzk substitute. in the draft, they can at least feel more positive about the di- However the Jets manage to get their big guys onto the rection the team is going in. After a year of patiently (or impa- field, they’ll be providing space for what’s probably the most tiently) waiting for Adam Gase to get fired, New York fans can upgraded receiving corps in the league. They’re still lacking a at least feel like their team has a plan towards eventually being true No. 1, but both Corey Davis and have been competitive again. It won’t be in 2021, but a season without versatile players throughout their careers, and second-round such a crushing sense of despair might just do for now. pick ’s exceptional athleticism (a 4.35s 40-yard dash and 6.67s 3-cone drill tell the story) has already been Bryan Knowles 196 NEW YORK JETS 2020 Jets by Week Trends and Splits Wk vs. W-L PF PA YDF YDA TO Total Off Def ST Offense Rank Defense Rank 1 at BUF L 17 27 254 404 0 -8.2% -11.5% -13.7% -10.4% Total DVOA -20.5% 31 4.7% 21 2 SF L 13 31 277 359 1 -2.7% -12.8% -10.4% -0.3% Unadjusted VOA -23.1% 32 8.9% 27 3 at IND L 7 36 260 353 -3 -64.0% -42.0% 14.2% -7.7% Weighted Trend -19.7% 31 4.8% 19 4 DEN L 28 37 321 359 3 -8.9% -9.4% 0.2% 0.7% Variance 9.8% 28 3.6% 8 5 ARI L 10 30 285 496 1 -45.4% -3.9% 41.5% 0.0% Average Opponent -0.4% 13 1.3% 12 6 at MIA L 0 24 263 302 1 -89.4% -62.6% 3.6% -23.1% 7 BUF L 10 18 191 422 -1 -60.8% -56.7% -2.2% -6.4% Passing -12.5% 30 22.9% 28 8 at KC L 9 35 221 496 -1 -61.7% -38.8% 23.5% 0.6% Rushing -22.6% 27 -20.0% 8 9 NE L 27 30 322 433 -1 46.2% 55.7% 15.7% 6.2% First Down -16.3% 27 4.1% 22 10 BYE Second Down -24.6% 31 4.5% 18 11 at LAC L 28 34 292 376 0 -20.1% -10.7% 6.1% -3.3% Third Down -21.9% 30 6.7% 20 12 MIA L 3 20 260 345 0 -64.1% -55.7% -3.5% -11.9% 13 LV L 28 31 376 440 -1 6.3% -3.1% -9.5% -0.1% First Half -11.9% 25 9.0% 27 14 at SEA L 3 40 185 410 0 -91.3% -60.8% 17.7% -12.8% Second Half -30.9% 32 0.6% 13 15 at LAR W 23 20 289 303 1 19.5% 11.2% -9.2% -0.9% 16 CLE W 23 16 333 299 2 11.6% -5.1% -29.4% -12.7% Red Zone -28.4% 29 5.9% 20 17 at NE L 14 28 350 404 -2 -57.5% -18.0% 36.4% -3.1% Late and Close -46.0% 32 -3.8% 13

Five-Year Performance

Pyth Est Off Def Off Def ST Year W-L PF PA TO Total Rk Off Rk Def Rk ST Rk Rk Rk Rk Rk Rk W W AGL AGL Age Age Age 2016 5-11 4.4 4.4 275 409 -20 -34.5% 32 -22.3% 31 5.4% 23 -6.8% 32 67.1 29 42.6 18 27.5 6 26.4 19 26.0 19 2017 5-11 5.6 4.9 298 382 -4 -19.2% 27 -10.7% 25 5.6% 22 -3.0% 25 37.7 19 9.0 4 27.1 13 25.6 27 25.9 13 2018 4-12 5.3 5.6 333 441 -10 -17.0% 26 -20.2% 29 4.9% 22 8.1% 1 47.2 23 23.2 9 26.4 19 26.0 23 26.0 13 2019 7-9 5.6 6.2 276 359 -4 -17.7% 26 -25.4% 32 -4.2% 11 3.4% 4 76.4 31 83.7 32 27.1 9 25.7 23 26.5 5 2020 2-14 2.8 3.3 243 457 0 -30.5% 32 -20.5% 31 4.7% 21 -5.3% 29 46.6 22 77.3 31 26.7 18 26.1 21 26.3 10

2020 Performance Based on Most Common Personnel Groups NYJ Offense NYJ Offense vs. Opponents NYJ Defense NYJ Defense vs. Opponents Pers Freq Yds DVOA Run% Pers Freq Yds DVOA Run% Pers Freq Yds DVOA Pers Freq Yds DVOA 11 72% 5.0 -12.9% 33% Base 16% 5.0 -17.8% 64% Base 16% 5.4 -1.1% 11 57% 6.0 3.2% 12 16% 4.9 -30.9% 64% Nickel 69% 4.9 -16.1% 38% Nickel 83% 6.1 5.8% 12 22% 6.3 15.1% 13 3% 3.4 -26.3% 78% Dime+ 15% 5.0 -20.8% 13% Dime+ 1% 6.1 -23.9% 21 11% 6.0 -7.1% 02 3% 6.3 -4.4% 0% Goal Line 0% 0.5 -11.1% 100% Goal Line 0% 1.0 50.7% 10 4% 7.0 24.9% 01 2% 4.6 0.7% 6% 22 1% 6.1 31.8% 10 2% 3.1 -65.6% 24% 20 1% 4.2 2.2%

Strategic Tendencies Run/Pass Rk Formation Rk Pass Rush Rk Secondary Rk Strategy Rk Runs, first half 41% 8 Form: Single Back 84% 9 Rush 3 6.8% 14 4 DB 16% 27 Play Action 24% 25 Runs, first down 49% 13 Form: Empty Back 7% 25 Rush 4 58.8% 25 5 DB 83% 2 Offensive Motion 41% 22 Runs, second-long 32% 8 Form: Multi Back 9% 17 Rush 5 28.2% 5 6+ DB 1% 29 Avg Box (Off) 6.59 13 Runs, power sit. 64% 10 Pers: 3+ WR 79% 4 Rush 6+ 6.2% 12 Man Coverage 30% 18 Avg Box (Def) 6.77 6 Runs, behind 2H 32% 8 Pers: 2+ TE/6+ OL 23% 24 Edge Rusher Sacks 24.2% 32 CB by Sides 89% 6 Offensive Pace 30.59 20 Pass, ahead 2H 52% 9 Pers: 6+ OL 0% 30 Interior DL Sacks 54.8% 1 S/CB Cover Ratio 23% 23 Defensive Pace 29.80 8 Run-Pass Options 4% 27 Shotgun/Pistol 62% 21 Second Level Sacks 21.0% 22 DB Blitz 15% 10 Go for it on 4th 1.25 26 NEW YORK JETS 197

The Jets ranked 31st in how often they threw to the middle of the field, just 19% of targets.  The Jets had the league’s worst numbers when running on second-and-long by both DVOA (-72.2%) and yards per carry (3.2).  The Jets ranked 31st with just 77 broken tackles.  Gang Green never used six offensive linemen.  Last year, the Jets had three linemen on 46% of their defensive plays, using four linemen just 10% of the time. Robert Saleh’s 49ers defense had four linemen out there 86% of the time.  This was the second straight year the Jets were dead last in percentage of sacks coming from edge rushers.  Showing how much they missed Jamal Adams, the Jets had the league’s worst DVOA (49.3%) when blitzing a defensive back.  The Jets led the NFL with 65 defensive penalties.

Passing Receiving Player DYAR DVOA Plays NtYds Avg YAC C% TD Int Player DYAR DVOA Plays Ctch Yds Y/C YAC TD C% S.Darnold* -540 -32.2% 396 1974 5.0 5.3 60.1% 9 11 J.Crowder 66 -3.2% 89 59 699 11.8 5.5 6 66% J.Flacco* 2 -10.9% 141 782 5.5 4.6 55.6% 6 3 B.Perriman* 41 -4.4% 60 30 505 16.8 5.3 3 50% B.Berrios 39 -3.4% 55 37 394 10.6 5.8 3 67% D.Mims -20 -18.2% 44 23 357 15.5 4.6 0 52% J.Smith -72 -37.3% 37 17 167 9.8 2.9 0 46% C.Hogan* -55 -38.5% 26 14 118 8.4 2.9 0 54% J.Malone -14 -38.9% 6 4 16 4.0 2.0 0 67% L.Cager -15 -43.8% 6 2 35 17.5 7.0 0 33% Rushing C.Davis 261 22.5% 92 65 984 15.1 4.5 5 71% Player DYAR DVOA Plays Yds Avg TD Fum Suc K.Cole 82 -1.7% 88 55 642 11.7 3.2 5 63% F.Gore* -52 -15.4% 187 653 3.5 2 1 45% C.Herndon 4 -6.1% 45 31 287 9.3 4.1 3 69% L.Perine -6 -10.7% 64 232 3.6 2 0 44% R.Griffin -3 -10.4% 12 9 86 9.6 5.4 0 75% T.Johnson 8 -5.0% 54 254 4.7 1 0 56% T.Kroft 42 29.2% 16 12 119 9.9 3.7 3 75% S.Darnold* 72 35.3% 30 224 7.5 2 0 -- T.Johnson 19 3.8% 20 16 99 6.2 8.1 1 80% J.Adams 37 20.1% 29 157 5.4 2 0 62% F.Gore* 5 -9.3% 19 16 89 5.6 4.6 0 84% L.Bell* -11 -21.7% 19 74 3.9 0 0 53% L.Perine -8 -22.8% 15 11 63 5.7 6.1 0 73% J.Flacco* -11 -44.6% 6 16 2.7 0 1 -- K.Ballage* 11 13.7% 10 9 67 7.4 9.2 0 90% T.Coleman -43 -47.0% 28 53 1.9 0 0 32% J.Adams -3 -18.8% 8 6 29 4.8 4.0 0 75%

Offensive Line Player Pos Age GS Snaps Pen Sk Pass Run Player Pos Age GS Snaps Pen Sk Pass Run Connor McGovern C 28 16/16 969 2 1 8 8 Josh Andrews* RG 30 15/4 311 1 0 8 3 George Fant RT 29 14/14 829 2 2.5 14 2 Conor McDermott RT 29 15/1 247 2 1.5 9 1 RG 31 13/13 752 0 2 6 7 RT 24 11/4 235 5 1 9 1 Mekhi Becton LT 22 14/13 691 7 5 12 2 C 27 16/16 1173 2 2.5 14 16 Alex Lewis LG 29 9/9 544 4 0.5 8 6 Morgan Moses RT/LT 30 16/16 1066 7 1.5 24 4 Pat Elflein* LG 27 7/7 419 2 0.5 9 7

Year Yards ALY Rk Power Rk Stuff Rk 2Lev Rk OpFld Rk BB Rt Rk Sacks ASR Rk Press Rk BB Rt Rk Cont 2018 4.05 3.59 32 61% 26 26% 32 1.05 28 1.06 6 8.8% 29 37 6.7% 18 32.4% 21 7.0% 9 28 2019 3.29 3.80 31 69% 8 21% 25 0.91 30 0.17 32 10.6% 18 52 9.2% 30 39.8% 32 14.0% 20 21 2020 3.88 4.34 17 62% 22 15% 10 1.09 25 0.33 31 10.1% 16 43 8.1% 29 31.7% 31 14.2% 25 21 2020 ALY by direction: Left End: 4.44 (17) Left : 4.85 (9) Mid/Guard: 4.15 (25) Right Tackle: 4.59 (13) Right End: 4.08 (22)

The Jets were the only offensive line to finish in the bottom five in pressure rate in the passing game and yards before contact in the rushing game. They were also third worst in both Pass Block Win Rate and Run Block Win Rate, per ESPN. When your high point is ranking slightly below average in adjusted line yards, you know you have problems.  Playing Mekhi Becton injured against the Broncos should have seen Adam Gase fired right then and there. When healthy, Becton was as good as advertised and looks to be a staple at left tackle.  Alijah Vera-Tucker impressed when kicking out to tackle in 2020 at USC, allowing just two pressures in five games before struggling in the Pac-12 title game. He’s an interior prospect at the NFL level, but being able to play tackle in a pinch isn’t a bad skill to have.  Connor McGovern’s 2019 season earned him his free-agent contract with New York, but so far, that seems like an outlier—he had a blown block every 111.8 snaps in the passing game in 2019, and one every 67.6 in his other three seasons. Getting 2019 McGovern would be a huge boost to the offensive line.  Greg Van Roten was signifi- 198 NEW YORK JETS cantly better in the passing game than the rushing game. He had seven blown blocks in the rushing game, but just six on pass plays despite 75% more pass-blocking snaps.  Just before we went to print, the Jets signed Morgan Moses to likely replace George Fant at right tackle. While his lack of athleticism means he’s not a perfect scheme fit, he’s a massive upgrade as a run blocker.

Defensive Front Overall vs. Run Pass Rush Defensive Line Age Pos G Snaps Plays TmPct Rk Stop Dfts BTkl Runs St% Rk RuYd Rk Sack Hit Hur Dsrpt 24 DE 13 586 57 8.0% 3 47 19 3 42 81% 23 1.3 6 7.0 8 15 4 Henry Anderson* 30 DE 16 549 42 4.8% 52 29 11 4 40 70% 60 1.7 16 0.5 3 13 0 26 DT 15 507 44 5.4% 40 35 12 3 39 79% 29 1.3 5 2.0 4 6 2 John Franklin-Myers 25 DE 15 473 21 2.6% 91 18 6 3 14 79% 32 2.1 32 3.0 11 28 2 Nathan Shepherd 28 DE 14 336 17 2.2% -- 15 4 2 14 86% -- 2.4 -- 2.5 6 3 0 23 DE 14 296 16 2.1% -- 10 6 1 8 63% -- 1.6 -- 2.0 2 10 0 27 DT 12 415 21 3.5% 74 13 5 1 18 56% 93 2.8 67 1.5 7 9 1

Overall vs. Run Pass Rush Edge Rushers Age Pos G Snaps Plays TmPct Rk Stop Dfts BTkl Runs St% Rk RuYd Rk Sack Hit Hur Dsrpt Tarell Basham* 27 OLB 16 734 34 3.9% 67 26 13 8 23 78% 21 1.9 24 3.5 9 19 0 Jordan Jenkins* 27 OLB 12 528 33 5.0% 43 24 10 3 23 83% 10 1.7 14 2.0 5 19 2 * 25 OLB 13 257 21 3.0% -- 14 7 5 8 88% -- 0.1 -- 2.0 2 8 2 Carl Lawson 26 DE 16 723 36 4.4% 56 26 8 4 28 64% 75 2.7 53 5.5 27 25 1 Vinny Curry 33 DE 11 310 16 2.7% 87 11 5 5 11 64% 77 3.5 83 3.0 6 14 0

Overall vs. Run ­Pass Rush vs. Pass Linebackers Age Pos G Snaps Plays TmPct Rk Stop Dfts BTkl Runs St% Rk RuYd Rk Sack Hit Hur Tgts Suc% Rk Yd/P Rk PD Int Neville Hewitt* 28 ILB 16 1130 135 15.5% 16 64 16 16 77 58% 33 4.7 68 2.0 3 8 36 44% 54 8.4 68 4 0 Harvey Langi* 29 ILB 14 513 58 7.6% 71 32 7 10 28 68% 11 3.7 34 0.0 1 8 21 48% 48 6.1 32 1 0 27 MLB 14 329 41 5.6% -- 18 5 9 27 52% -- 4.7 -- 0.5 3 9 6 33% -- 5.8 -- 0 0

Year Yards ALY Rk Power Rk Stuff Rk 2Lev Rk OpFld Rk BB Rt Rk Sacks ASR Rk Press Rk BB Rt Rk 2018 4.31 4.28 13 55% 2 22% 10 1.25 19 0.87 18 5.8% 27 39 6.7% 21 28.1% 24 8.3% 23 2019 3.16 3.00 1 52% 3 31% 1 1.01 6 0.56 7 17.5% 5 35 6.2% 26 30.4% 17 12.0% 29 2020 4.09 3.75 5 70% 25 20% 8 1.06 7 0.89 24 17.3% 2 31 5.9% 20 25.6% 13 14.5% 13 2020 ALY by direction: Left End: 3.98 (10) Left Tackle: 3.12 (3) Mid/Guard: 3.99 (7) Right Tackle: 3.67 (6) Right End: 2.50 (2)

Quinnen Williams is recovering from offseason foot surgery, which cost him OTAs and minicamp. Williams has yet to play a full season, which is about the only negative thing you can say about his game.  Carl Lawson blossomed into one of the league’s elite pass-rushers in 2020. While his breakout year as a three-down player is slightly oversold, he’ll play the Nick Bosa role as the focal point of Saleh’s pass rush. The last Jets defender to match Lawson’s 14.3% pressure rate was Demario Davis in 2017, and that came rushing the passer half as often.  On a better team, Vinny Curry would probably be a rotational edge rusher instead of the second guy on the outside, but he still managed a 12.7% pressure rate last year, placing him in the top 25 among edge rushers with at least 150 rushes.  Sheldon Rankins hasn’t played a full season since 2018, thanks to tearing his left Achilles and nearly doing the same to his right; he admitted he wasn’t at 100% in 2020. While he hasn’t come close to matching his eight sacks from 2018, his pressure rate last season rebounded to a respectable 8.0%, placing him in the top 20 for defensive tackles. If he can get back to 100%, he’s a nice addition in the interior.  It’s safe to say middle linebacker C.J. Mosley’s contract has been a disappointment so far—he played two games in 2019 and opted out of 2020, so we haven’t had a chance to really see him in green yet. The Jets reportedly looked to shop his contract this offseason, but he’s back.  Going on injured reserve three times in two seasons is impressive, . Cashman projects as one of the Jets’ starting line- backers in nickel, but with all of three defensive snaps last year, we’re doing a lot of projection off of a poor rookie season in 2019.  Jarrad Davis has not lived up to his billing as a first-round pick in 2017. The Jets believe that he wasn’t used properly in Detroit, and considering Detroit’s defense was run by Matt Patricia, they may have a point. Davis is an outside pass-rushing linebacker who was used as a coverage/run-stopper with the Lions; expect him to be pointed more towards the quarterback in 2021.  Fifth-round rookie played his entire career at Auburn at safety, but the Jets are moving him to linebacker—he spent more time in the box last year, anyway. His 4.76s 40 killed his draft stock, but that won’t be as much of a problem as a moneybacker, and his tackling is beyond reproach. NEW YORK JETS 199 Defensive Secondary Overall vs. Run vs. Pass Secondary Age Pos G Snaps Plays TmPct Rk Stop Dfts BTkl Runs St% Rk RuYd Rk Tgts Tgt% Rk aDOT Suc% Rk Yd/P Rk PD Int Marcus Maye 28 FS 16 1138 99 11.4% 31 48 16 10 49 51% 15 5.1 16 27 5.9% 55 12.3 70% 2 3.9 1 11 2 Blessuan Austin 25 CB 11 682 67 11.2% 11 22 10 10 19 37% 51 6.5 38 54 19.6% 42 9.1 48% 54 6.6 21 4 0 Bryce Hall 24 CB 8 547 39 8.9% -- 11 3 4 4 25% -- 6.5 -- 42 19.0% -- 9.1 40% -- 8.0 -- 3 1 * 31 CB 12 519 54 8.3% 49 18 9 6 12 42% 45 8.7 65 44 20.9% 32 10.2 34% 79 10.2 79 8 3 Brian Poole* 29 CB 9 482 51 10.4% -- 21 8 2 13 46% -- 6.8 -- 29 14.9% -- 10.5 52% -- 6.4 -- 7 2 23 CB 13 452 29 4.1% -- 9 2 2 10 50% -- 6.2 -- 39 21.3% -- 12.3 41% -- 10.2 -- 2 0 Bradley McDougald* 31 SS 7 433 38 10.0% -- 9 5 8 12 17% -- 9.3 -- 18 10.3% -- 17.6 39% -- 11.6 -- 3 0 Arthur Maulet* 28 CB 11 404 28 4.7% -- 14 6 7 8 38% -- 10.3 -- 23 14.1% -- 10.7 65% -- 6.5 -- 5 1 Ashtyn Davis 25 SS 10 402 36 6.6% -- 7 3 1 10 20% -- 6.6 -- 18 11.1% -- 9.6 39% -- 9.1 -- 1 0 Javelin Guidry 23 CB 11 171 21 3.5% -- 9 2 1 10 50% -- 5.7 -- 7 10.1% -- 7.1 57% -- 7.1 -- 0 0 Lamarcus Joyner 31 FS/CB 14 669 71 9.8% 45 24 9 3 28 46% 18 4.5 7 48 17.9% 4 8.5 50% 34 7.0 24 5 0 30 SS 16 289 20 2.5% -- 5 2 2 7 43% -- 7.9 -- 4 3.3% -- 14.5 25% -- 13.3 -- 0 0

Year Pass D Rank vs. #1 WR Rk vs. #2 WR Rk vs. Other WR Rk WR Wide Rk WR Slot Rk vs. TE Rk vs. RB Rk 2018 19 11.5% 24 -3.5% 14 9.7% 23 -10.5% 10 21.1% 27 7.8% 20 -13.4% 7 2019 18 8.7% 24 16.9% 27 1.0% 18 18.0% 31 4.6% 13 -5.1% 12 -13.0% 5 2020 28 12.6% 22 22.5% 29 -4.9% 12 10.9% 26 10.9% 27 16.5% 27 -5.6% 12

The Jets haven’t ranked in the top 20 against No. 1 wideouts since 2015, ’ prime. Forget being good, even a halfway-competent season would be cause for a ticker-tape parade.  After flashing in limited action as a rookie, Bless Aus- tin stumbled in 2020—his success rate dropped from 54% to 48%, and his completion percentage allowed jumped by 10 points. He fits the Saleh mold of tall and long cornerbacks, so he’ll get one more shot to show the form that excited Jets fans for two months in 2019.  This year’s Austin is Bryce Hall, who flashed in limited action as a rookie. He was burned early, but by the end of the year, he was settling into his role. His success rate doesn’t reflect that; 40% is very bad and caused by him playing too far off on receivers, letting them pick up easy catches for first downs.  As of press time, the Jets still haven’t come to a long-term deal with Marcus Maye. Maye’s one of the best coverage safeties in the game and has more than earned a long-term extension, especially in New York’s talent-starved secondary.  Ashtyn Davis won’t be confused for Jamal Adams anytime soon, but eight pressures on 40 rushes isn’t too shabby for a defensive back. Davis’ athleticism flashed in short bursts, mostly in tackling rather than coverage; his speed doesn’t have a great correlation with any of Saleh’s previous defensive players, so he’s an interesting potential chess piece.  Fifth-round pick (Pitt) is a great athlete, ranking in the upper tier in his 3-cone, short shuttle, and jumping drills. That doesn’t always show up on the field, as his technique when transitioning isn’t smooth—if he can work on that, he still has room to grow.  Of the five Day 3 defensive backs the Jets drafted, “the other” Michael Carter (Duke) may have the biggest role as a rookie. His 4.36s 40 speed means you’re not going to run by him, either as a slot corner or a deep safety. The problem is, he’s stiff as a board; sharp routes leave him in the dust. He has a shot at the starting slot role, though he’ll probably be more useful as a gunner as a rookie.

Special Teams Year DVOA Rank FG/XP Rank Net Kick Rank Kick Ret Rank Net Rank Punt Ret Rank Hidden Rank 2018 8.1% 1 10.3 4 5.1 4 13.6 2 2.7 14 8.8 1 0.8 14 2019 3.4% 4 -4.8 24 6.5 1 0.6 12 10.1 4 4.7 4 1.3 16 2020 -5.3% 29 -10.0 30 -0.1 19 -4.0 24 -12.8 30 0.3 15 -6.7 24

All five aspects of New York’s special teams got worse in 2020, but the drop from Lac Edwards to was the worst. The Jets went from the fourth-best punting team in 2019 to the third-worst in 2020—and since the Jets were punting a lot, it was very noticeable.  Kicker ’s job is in jeopardy. He’s just 35-for-48 in his career and has missed six extra points for New York. UDFA rookie Chris Naggar (SMU) will have every chance to win the role.  The Jets switched from Ficken to Mann on kickoffs in Week 7. Ficken earned -1.0 net points worth of field position, while Matt was about average at 0.1 points.  The midseason acquisition of helped New York’s kickoff return game. Ballentine had 2.5 estimated points of field position on kick returns; Ty Johnson had -0.4 and (who also returned punts) had -1.7. Both return jobs are up in the air for 2021. Rookies Elijah Moore and Michael Carter (RB) are options, but they may be too valuable on offense to risk putting them back there. A combination of Berrios, Johnson, and Ballentine is likely to take on these roles again.