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Iranian Banks Face Uncertain Future Over the Medium Term, but Opportunities Exist for Individual Banks to Shine

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Iranian Banks Face Uncertain Future Over the Medium Term, but Opportunities Exist for Individual Banks to Shine Iranian Bank Survey February 2016 the darien analytics survey FINANCIAL MARKET ANALYSIS darien analytics is a London-based consulting firm, founded by Andrew Cunningham For more information visit www.darienmiddleeast.com Iranian banks face uncertain future over the medium term, but opportunities exist for individual banks to shine The partial lifting of economic sanctions against Iran presents Iranian banks with opportunities to become stronger, bigger, and more effective at promoting domestic economic growth. But the challenges that they will face over the next few years are vast. In the following report, darien analytics considers the medium-term prospects for Iranian banks. Left: The lifting of economic sanctions will lead to improved living conditions for all sectors of society. ©Mansoreh/Shutterstock.com Cover: Interior detail from the Ali Qapu palace in Isfahan. ©Anton Ivanov/Shutterstock.com Years of exclusion from the global Rather than a banking boom, Iran could Bank, although there are doubts over how financial system has left most be facing a major banking crisis three or much independence it will enjoy. Iranian banks with unsophisticated four years from now. management controls and IT systems, The role played by the Central Bank IRANIAN BANKS ARE SMALL AND accounting and auditing practices that NEED TO GROW of Iran (CBI) will be the decisive factor are inconsistent and lax (particularly in in determining whether the Iranian respect of recognising non-performing There are about 30 banks in Iran, with four banking system will overcome the loans), and a lack of size that will accounting for nearly half of all loans and challenges it is facing and develop into a constrain their ability to meet the deposits. (See page 5). State-owned Bank profitable and well managed sector that demands that will be put on them as Melli and private sector Bank Mellat have is able to meet the changing needs of its Iran’s economy develops and grows. assets a little in excess of $50 billion and clients, and stimulate economic growth in another eight have assets of more than $10 More broadly, the increase in domestic the economy as a whole. billion. Two banks have equity in excess of liquidity which is expected to follow the Of course, individual bankers and $3 billion – state-owned Bank Saderat and unblocking of tens of billions of dollars particular institutions will also play their private sector Bank Melli – and another six held overseas, when combined with the part, but experience shows that without have equity in excess of $1 billion. increased demand for credit that is being strong and enlightened intervention from spurred by lower interest rates and by the Iranian banks are small in relation to the the Central Bank, sustained reform and government’s own economic stimulus size of their economy and in relation to development across the banking system as package, will likely lead to a big increase regional peers. The biggest GCC banks a whole will be a forlorn hope. Fortunately, in non-performing loans over the medium have assets in excess of $100 billion and observers are generally impressed with the term. more than $10 billion in equity. The level of competence within the Central biggest Turkish banks have also have assets 2 LARGE REGIONAL BANKS IRANIAN BANKS: MARKET SHARE BY TYPE OF BANK Date of Private Assets financial banks and Bank Country ($ million) statement non-bank Commercial Specialised credit Total Qatar National Bank Qatar 146,640 End 2015 banks banks institutions system ($ billion) ($ billion) ($ billion) ($ billion) Emirates NBD UAE 110,689 End 2015 Claims on public sector 9.8 12.0 15.0 36.7 National Commercial Bank Saudi Arabia 100,606 End 2014 Claims on non-public sector 33.7 56.3 130.2 220.2 Turkiye Is Bankasi Turkey 94,612 End 2015 Foreign assets 10.3 14.3 51.4 76.0 Bank Melli Iran 51,706 March 2015 Assets 83.7 97.4 330.1 510.9 Habib Bank Pakistan 18,318 End 2014 Deposits from non-public sector 50.3 29.1 201.3 280.8 Rasheed Bank Iraq 18,234 End 2013 Deposits from public sector 4.4 4.4 1.0 9.8 Afghanistan Intl. Bank Afghanistan 962 End 2014 Capital account 3.4 4.4 15.9 23.8 CONSOLIDATED ASSETS OF COMMERCIAL BANKS Market Share: % of total (figures may not add exactly to 100% due to rounding) ($ BILLION) Claims on public sector 26.6 32.6 40.8 100.0 Claims on non-public sector 15.3 25.6 59.1 100.0 809 674 593 511 128 123 Foreign assets 13.5 18.8 67.6 100.0 Assets 16.4 19.1 64.6 100.0 Deposits from non-public sector 17.9 10.4 71.7 100.0 Turkey United Arab Saudi Arabia Iran Pakistan Iraq Deposits from public sector 44.7 44.7 10.6 100.0 (End 2015) Emirates (End 2015) (Sept 2015) (June 2015) (End 2014) (End 2015) Capital account 14.4 18.7 66.9 100.0 of around $100 billion and equity of about Among the larger private sector banks, strengthening the large state-owned banks. $10 billion. Pasargad, Eqtesadovin, and Karafarin The recent experience of Egypt and Iraq show strong profitability and efficiency shows that it is unrealistic to expect middle Several factors make assessment of Iranian ratios and Pasargad and Karafarin also ranking private sector banks to expand at banks’ performance difficult: reporting is show strong capital ratios. Among the a rate that is fast enough to enable them inconsistent and significant restatements smaller private sector banks, Middle East to become market leaders and eclipse the of prior year figures are common; bank – one of the newer entrants – shows large state-owned banks. There is no room non-performing loans are frequently strong performance but lacks scale. for ideology here: whatever misgivings one understated; and recent currency has about the role of state-owned banks in devaluations hamper the construction society, the fact is that Saderat and Melli of multi-year comparisons. (The official REFORM OF THE LARGER BANKS IS A KEY TASK FOR THE IRANIAN will continue to be major players in the exchange rate collapsed from around FINANCIAL SECTOR Iranian banking system for many years to IR12,500 to the dollar to around come. They cannot be wished away; they IR25,000 to the dollar in mid-2013, It is generally good policy for central banks will have to be reformed. and has fallen in value by another 20% to push weaker banks to merge with or since early 2014. At the same time, the be acquired by stronger banks. Typically In Egypt, National Bank of Egypt remains unofficial rate has swung to and fro around they effect this by raising minimum capital the dominant player 12 years after the the official rate in respond to particular requirements. But in the case of Iran, such Central Bank of Egypt began its banking events.) Even calculations based on local a measure could be a distraction from the reform programme, and in the case of currency reporting are affected by such more important task of strengthening and Iraq, private sector banks have made little large changes in the exchange rate. growing the larger banks. impact on the dominant position of Rashid and Rafidain. The same can be said for However, figures for Iranian years 1393 Reform of the larger banks is the key the banking system in Algeria, although and 1392 (March 2015 and March 2014) micro-prudential task facing the Iranian in both Iraq and Algeria, the failure of show reasonable levels of profitability and financial sector in the years ahead. Forcing private sector banks to take market share is efficiency. One would generally want to the larger banks to integrate small, weaker due in part to the significant role of state- see returns on average assets of between banks could drain their resources while owned companies in the economy and 1–2% in a reasonably well-performing providing few benefits of scale. (A better government policy of forcing such state- banking system and many Iranian banks course of action would be to put the small owned companies to deal with state-owned achieve this. Iranian banks’ cost/income banks up for sale to foreign institutions banks. ratios (‘efficiency’) vary greatly, but many seeking to enter the Iranian market, though are around 40%–55%, which is entirely that is unlikely to be politically possible for The central bank should encourage acceptable. Returns on equity are often some time.) mergers between some of the larger high, though this is sometimes driven by private sector banks to enable the creation If Iran is to develop a vibrant banking capital levels that, on an un-weighted basis, of institutions with a size that will be able system, attention must be given to are rather low. to handle large domestic and regional 3 buying scheme was so successful that it was suspended, at the request of the central bank, after 110,000 cars were bought.) Putting these four factors together, it is reasonable to expect a significant increase in bank credit in the next two years. When rapid increases in bank credit happen at this stage in a banking system’s development they invariably lead to asset quality crises. The upgrading of underwriting ability (including the hiring and training of new credit analysts) always lags the growth of credit, and this problem is compounded by weak underwriting ability to begin with. THE LEVEL OF NON-PERFORMING LOANS IS HIGH, AND WILL BECOME HIGHER Non-performing loans (NPLs) account for about 12% of bank loans, according to government officials, speaking in The Tohid Tunnel in Tehran against the backdrop of the Alborz Mountains.
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