Journal of Marine Science and Engineering Article Second-Pass Assessment of Potential Exposure to Shoreline Change in New South Wales, Australia, Using a Sediment Compartments Framework Michael A. Kinsela 1,2,*, Bradley D. Morris 1, Michelle Linklater 1 ID and David J. Hanslow 1 ID 1 Water, Wetlands & Coasts Science, Office of Environment & Heritage, NSW Government, 59 Goulburn Street, Sydney, NSW 2000, Australia;
[email protected] (B.D.M.);
[email protected] (M.L.);
[email protected] (D.J.H.) 2 School of Geosciences, Faculty of Science, The University of Sydney, Sydney, NSW 2006, Australia * Correspondence:
[email protected]; Tel.: +61-2-9995-5661 Received: 30 August 2017; Accepted: 7 December 2017; Published: 20 December 2017 Abstract: The impacts of coastal erosion are expected to increase through the present century, and beyond, as accelerating global mean sea-level rise begins to enhance or dominate local shoreline dynamics. In many cases, beach (and shoreline) response to sea-level rise will not be limited to passive inundation, but may be amplified or moderated by sediment redistribution between the beach and the broader coastal sedimentary system. We describe a simple and scalable approach for estimating the potential for beach erosion and shoreline change on wave-dominated sandy beaches, using a coastal sediment compartments framework to parameterise the geomorphology and connectivity of sediment-sharing coastal systems. We apply the approach at regional and local scales in order to demonstrate the sensitivity of forecasts to the available data. The regional-scale application estimates potential present and future asset exposure to coastal erosion in New South Wales, Australia.