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Climate Leadership in Uncertain Times

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Climate Leadership in Uncertain Times Atlantic Council GLOBAL ENERGY CENTER Climate Leadership in Uncertain Times Joshua Busby and Nigel Purvis Climate Leadership in Uncertain Times Joshua Busby and Nigel Purvis ISBN-13: 978-1-61977-559-6 Cover: pixabay/Joenomias This report is written and published in accordance with the Atlantic Council Policy on Intellectual Independence. The author is solely responsible for its analysis and recommendations. The Atlantic Council and its donors do not determine, nor do they necessarily endorse or advocate for, any of this report’s conclusions. September 2018 TABLE OF CONTENTS Introduction 2 Part I: US Climate Policy under President Trump 4 Part II: Leadership Potential Around the World 8 Part III: Piece by Piece—A Theory of Change 13 Part IV: Areas for Diplomatic Progress 15 Conclusion 25 Appendix A: Priority Areas for Emissions Mitigation 26 About the Authors 28 Climate Leadership in Uncertain Times INTRODUCTION t is easy to become cynical and depressed when European Union leadership a question mark going for- thinking about humanity’s response to the real and ward, an issue underscored by Poland’s chairmanship growing risk of catastrophic climate change. The of global climate negotiations this year. While the Paris science keeps getting clearer. Adverse real-world Agreement was built on the premise of a virtuous cir- Iimpacts keep mounting, and political discourse in this cle, in which success and sunlight would allow coun- area—at least in the United States—remains completely tries to ratchet up their ambitions, there is a real risk of dysfunctional and tribal. While some level of danger- inertia or insufficient progress. ous climate change appears unavoidable, all is not lost. Humanity can keep climate impacts manageable, and Notwithstanding these obstacles, there is good news. create better economic, health, and security outcomes, A clean energy transition is under way in the real world. through proactive common-sense solutions. In fact, The rise of renewables has created genuine potential much can be done now to strengthen global climate for a transformative clean energy economy all around action through international diplomacy—even during the world. Even in the United States, the impact of the the Donald Trump administration. administration’s policies, so far, has not been as bad as many have assumed. Buoyed by inexpensive natural gas and the rise of renewables, US emissions continue “ Humanity can keep climate their downward trajectory—even if projected US emis- sions remain higher than the country’s Paris commit- impacts manageable, and ment. With US emissions now accounting for less than create better economic, 15 percent of global climate pollution, down from about 22 percent in the 1980s, changes in US emissions dic- health, and security outcomes, tate the global math less than before. through proactive common- Moreover, despite fears of weakened global resolve, sense solutions.” other countries unanimously reaffirmed support for the Paris Agreement in reaction to President Trump’s decision to walk away from the pact. International ex- Today, international climate cooperation is organized pressions of support, moreover, were augmented by primarily around the 2015 Paris Agreement, which similar statements from governors, mayors, and busi- faces headwinds including, but not limited to, President ness leaders across the United States. Globally, the US Trump’s announced withdrawal of the United States. is isolated—as virtually the only government opposing The agreement’s voluntary commitments to reduce Paris—and US retrenchment has allowed China and emissions, the so-called “Nationally Determined Con- others to burnish their images as global leaders and tributions,” were always a down payment on what was enhance the legitimacy of their international leader- needed to avoid dangerous climate change—necessary, ship, at the US expense. but insufficient in themselves. Nearly three years after the agreement was reached in Paris, it remains far from In fact, the foil of the United States continues to serve as clear that even these modest commitments will be fully a powerful rationale for climate cooperation. In July 2018, implemented.1 China and the EU signed a joint statement reaffirming their support for a successful completion of the rulebook As the United States has taken a step back, other governing the implementation of the Paris Agreement, major emitters are also struggling. After some initial set to be negotiated in December 2018 in Poland.2 progress, China’s emissions have rebounded, raising serious questions about its future trajectory. Internal Defenders of the Paris Agreement are to be applauded cleavages and domestic political challenges make for rallying to its defense. That said, as its supporters 1 For a similar view, see Johannes Urpelainen, “The Paris Agreement’s Emissions Goals May Be in Trouble, with or without U.S. Participation,” Washington Post, June 1, 2018, https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/monkey-cage/wp/2018/06/01/the-paris- agreements-emissions-goals-may-be-in-trouble-with-or-without-u-s-participation/. 2 Joshua S. Hill, “EU & China Sign Joint Statement Increasing Cooperation On Climate Change & Clean Energy,” CleanTechnica, July 17, 2018, https://cleantechnica.com/2018/07/17/eu-china-sign-joint-statement-increasing-cooperation-on-climate-change-clean-energy/. 2 ATLANTIC COUNCIL Climate Leadership in Uncertain Times French Foreign Minister Laurent Fabius — President of the COP21 climate change conference — raises his hands along with United Nations Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon and French President Francois Hollande on December 12, 2015, after representatives of 196 countries approved a sweeping environmental agreement during a multinational meeting at LeBourget Airport in Paris, France. Photo credit: US Department of State recognize, more must be done internationally to mitigate several areas where international diplomacy can help Trump’s damage to international and domestic momen- increase global ambition in the coming years, even tum on climate change and combat weaknesses in global in the absence of robust action from the US federal governance. While what is needed to avoid catastrophic government. These areas include: maximizing the po- climate change—decarbonization by the middle of this tential of so-called natural climate solutions (forests, century or soon thereafter—is broadly understood, the food, agriculture, and land); building a frontrunner alli- practical and political steps that could be taken are not. ance of nations committed to carbon neutrality before mid-century; launching a global compact to scale up Perhaps the best way to ratchet up ambition is to dis- electric vehicles; developing an international air pollu- aggregate the climate-pollution problem. Nations may tion initiative, particularly for cities in Asia; and encour- resist the idea of doing more simply to take on a larger aging China to deepen its climate goals at home and share of a global climate goal. But, they are far more abroad. The list is not exhaustive, and merely illumi- likely to agree to specific, manageable actions in par- nates the authors’ central thesis that international cli- ticular sectors when the solutions advance other so- mate cooperation continues to have enormous promise cietal goals and are affordable. This report identifies and untapped potential, even in the age of Trump. ATLANTIC COUNCIL 3 Climate Leadership in Uncertain Times PART I: US CLIMATE POLICY UNDER PRESIDENT TRUMP nder the presidency of Barack Obama, the concluded, and signed the Kyoto Protocol, only to have United States played a vital leadership role in the George W. Bush administration withdraw the US fostering the ideas that became part of the signature in 2001. It is regrettable that partisan shifts Paris Agreement. Beginning in Copenhagen in in domestic politics have yielded inconsistency in US U2009, the United States sought to move away from the climate diplomacy, making it difficult for other coun- arrangements in the controversial 1997 Kyoto Protocol, tries to consider the United States a reliable negotiating which created pollution reduction commitments for partner. Despite the administration’s public pronounce- some countries, but not others, and was premised on ments, its efforts have been less effective at shifting the idea that nations should negotiate national climate climate policies than might at first appear. Here is why. targets at the international level.3 The United States is Still In “ The 2015 Paris Agreement During the 2016 presidential campaign, then-candidate Trump made clear his desire to pull the United States created expectations of action out of the Paris Agreement and undermine global sup- for all countries, and allowed port for climate action. He seemingly made good on this promise with a June 2017 press conference in the nations to set their climate White House Rose Garden, in which he announced the targets through domestic United States would walk away from the agreement. But, under the rules of the Paris Agreement, the United political processes rather than States cannot formally withdraw until November international negotiations.” 2020—the day after the next presidential election.6 Thus, the United States is still formally part of the Paris The 2015 Paris Agreement created expectations of ac- Agreement. Even if President Trump pulls the United tion for all countries, and allowed nations to set their States out of Paris in 2020, should another presi- climate targets through domestic political
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