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Target Corporation NYSE: TGT March 31, 2014 Volume XL, Issue III Target Corporation NYSE: TGT Dow Jones Indus: 16,457.66 S&P 500: 1,872.34 Russell 2000: 1,173.04 Trigger: No Index Component: S&P 500 Type of Situation: Business Value, Consumer Franchise Price: $ 60.51 Shares Outstanding (MM): 632.3 Fully Diluted (MM): 638.1 Average Daily Volume (MM): 6.9 Market Cap (MM): $ 38,260 Enterprise Value (MM): $ 51,367 Percentage Closely Held: Insiders < 1% 52-Week High/Low: $ 73.50/54.66 5-Year High/Low: $ 73.50/36.68 Trailing Twelve Months Price/Earnings: 19.7x Price/Stated Book Value: 2.4x Overview Net Debt (MM): $ 13,086 Target Corporation (“TGT” or “the Company”) is Upside to Estimate of a significant player within the retail industry. The Intrinsic Value: 37% Company has a long and impressive history of growth. As of the most recent fiscal year (FY 2013 ended in Dividend: $ 1.72 February 2014), the Company’s revenue reached Yield: 2.8% $72 billion and its store base consisted of 1,917 locations across the United States (1,793 stores) and Net Revenue Per Share: Canada (124 stores) with over 250 million square feet 2013: $ 113.1 of total retail space. Its record is further enhanced by a 2012: $ 110.5 history of returning capital to shareholders. TGT has 2011: $ 102.1 paid a dividend to its shareholders every year since its 2010: $ 92.3 1967 IPO, and the dividend has consistently grown over time. Earnings Per Share: However, the Company’s recent results have 2013: $ 3.07 been less impressive. TGT’s challenges have included 2012: $ 4.52 a well publicized breach of consumer data, its entrance 2011: $ 4.28 into the Canadian market, and a less robust growth trajectory as the firm has matured into a larger Fiscal Year Ends: February 1 organization. After being a very strong performer during Company Address: 1000 Nicollet Mall past decades, TGT shares have remained fairly Minneapolis, WI 55403 stagnant during recent years (the stock has been flat Telephone: 612-304-6073 since early 2007). CEO: Gregg W. Steinhafel Clearly, TGT has become an out of favor stock. Clients of Boyar Asset Management, Inc. do not own shares of Target However, there should be reasons for investor optimism Corporation common stock. during the coming years in our view. We believe Analysts employed by Boyar’s Intrinsic Value Research LLC own shares of Target Corporation common stock. substantial EPS growth should be attainable for the firm within the next 2-3 years. Customer concerns pertaining - 21 - Target Corporation to the recent data breach should eventually diminish, and the firm’s Canadian expansion should finally begin to bear fruit. Moreover, free cash flow should also be positioned for significant growth during the next 2-3 years, making dividend growth and share repurchases increasingly likely going forward. TGT has set ambitious goals for itself. Management has set an objective of $8.00 in EPS by FY 2017, roughly double the profit earned during recent years. We believe substantial EPS growth should be attainable for the firm within the next 2-3 years. However, for the purposes of valuation, we do not assume the $8.00 EPS goal is achieved within management’s time frame. Assuming TGT can trade at a multiple of 7.0x EV/EBITDA (consistent with its trading range during recent years), and applying that to our FY 2016 projections produces an $83 per share estimate of intrinsic value. This estimated valuation implies total return potential of 40% relative to the stock’s current valuation, and could prove to be conservative from a longer-term point of view. From our perspective, TGT is an out of favor stock that offers a very favorable risk: reward scenario for long-term investors. Assuming the economic environment is not prohibitively challenging, the Company should be well positioned for significant growth in earnings and cash flow going forward. Moreover, TGT should benefit from a solid financial position, coherent strategy, and capable management team. Near-term, we believe the Company’s owned real estate assets (roughly equivalent to TGT’s current market value based on conservative projections) and additional return of capital to shareholders should provide valuation support for the stock. Background & Business Description Target Corporation has a long and impressive history. Its track record is characterized by strong and relatively consistent growth as the firm has evolved from a small enterprise to a multi-billion dollar concern. TGT’s roots trace back to the early 1900s when George Dayton opened a dry goods store in downtown Minneapolis. The firm was named Dayton Company for much of its early history, and the Target store concept was launched by Dayton in the early 1960s. Both Dayton and Target expanded to markets outside of Minnesota during the 20th century, and Dayton completed its IPO in 1967 (the firm was still managed by George Dayton’s descendants). After being managed in a fairly conservative manner for several generations, Dayton began to pursue a more aggressive growth strategy, supported by both internal investment and M&A. Significant acquisitions included Detroit-based J.L. Hudson & Company (1969), and California-based Mervyn’s (1978). The organization eventually renamed itself Dayton-Hudson, but Target stores had become the firm’s largest sales contributor by 1975. By the early 1980s, the Dayton family had become less involved in the organization’s day-to-day management, but Company expansion efforts continued, further driven by the acquisition of Marshall Field’s in 1990 (a well known Chicago-based retailer). By the early 1990s, the Target concept had established a national presence. The 1990s was a very eventful decade for Target, a period that included the launch of its superstore concept, the launch of its credit card, and the creation of the “Expect More. Pay Less.” brand identity. Dayton-Hudson was ultimately renamed Target Corporation in 2000, reflecting the increasing prominence of the Target concept within the organization. By 2001, Target had over 1,000 stores in 47 states across the country. The 2000s was a period of both growth and transition for TGT. It elected to sell both Marshall Field’s and Mervyn’s in 2004, and by 2005 TGT had reached annual sales of over $50 billion and net income of over $2 billion. During the 2007-2010 period activist investor Bill Ackman accumulated a stake in TGT shares. Among his primary proposals was a spin-off of TGT’s real estate into a REIT. However, the measure was opposed by management since it potentially put the Company’s credit rating at risk, and Ackman ultimately sold his stake in the firm after an unsuccessful proxy battle. Target’s expansion and growth has moderated during recent years given the firm’s increased size and market penetration. However, a recent entrance into the Canadian market has been a key focus of Company investment. Target acquired 135 leases from Canadian retailer Zeller’s (owned by Hudson Bay) in 2011 for a final net price of $1.6 billion. By FY 2013, Target had completely divested its credit card operations (sold to TD Bank, TGT no longer viewed it as a core business). As of the most recent fiscal year (FY 2013 ended in February 2014), the Company’s revenue reached $72 billion and its store base consisted of 1,917 locations across the United States (1,793 stores) and Canada (124 stores) with over 250 million square feet of total retail space. It employs over 360,000 people (all non-union), and its operations are supported by a network of 40 distribution centers across the United States and Canada. Like most retailers, TGT experiences heightened sales during the year-end holiday season, and it often adds temporary staff to respond to the increased sales and traffic. Target offers a diverse range of - 22 - Target Corporation products, and has bolstered its presence in the food category during recent years. As part of its strategy to expand its product line and maintain market relevance, TGT has renovated over 1,100 of its stores. Sales are derived from the following product categories: Household Essentials (25%), Food and Pet Supplies (20%), Apparel and Accessories (19%), Hardlines (18%), and Home Furnishings/Décor (18%). The Company offers a diverse range of brands, and approximately one-third of sales in FY 2013 were derived from brands that are owned or exclusively provided by TGT. Importantly, this helps to distinguish TGT’s product line from its competitors, and the Company earns higher margins on these products relative to outside, national brands. The following table provides additional insight regarding the Company’s recent operating performance. FY 2009 FY 2010 FY 2011 FY 2012 FY 2013 Net sales growth 1% 3% 4% 5% (1%) Gross margin 32.6% 32.2% 31.5% 31.0% 29.5% Operating margin 7.2% 7.8% 7.6% 7.3% 5.8% ROE 17.1% 18.9% 18.7% 18.1% 12.1% Store count (year-end) 1,740 1,750 1,763 1,778 1,917 Management The executive team at Target consists of a roster of experienced individuals, with many years spent at both Target and other retail industry firms. Although Company operations have faced a few challenges most recently (launch in Canada, a high profile customer data breach, etc.), we believe TGT’s management team is a strategic strength for the Company that should make significant growth in sales and profits attainable during the coming years. It warrants mention that TGT’s Chief Information Officer did resign from the firm earlier this year, likely related to the consumer data breach in late 2013.
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